Its a very interesting piece: is it right? Its saying (with quite a few key examples cited in evidence) that Net Zero in the UK is entering the sudden collapse phase. The key example is that Kemi Badenoc, the Conservative Party Leader, has just announced at their annual conference that the Party is to repeal the Climate Change Act and abolish the Climate Change Committee.
This is certainly significant, and it joins Reform with their more vaguely expressed commitments along the same lines. So look at the polls, and you have parties close to 50% of the electorate behind them in favour of ending Net Zero root and branch.
It definitely means that Net Zero as policy is now fully up for public debate, and it means that the next round of settlements on renewable energy which Ed Miliband is negotiating now will attract attention and analysis.
But will it change to the extent that the piece conjectures, Starmer to fire Miliband and drop the whole mad idea? That I am not so sure about. He has already tried and bottled it once when Miliband refused to move from the Energy department. Miliband is the darling of the Labour Party membership, who are the ones who will vote for the next leader. The Party membership are total lunatics, they are, remember, the ones who installed Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Firing Miliband could well provoke a leadership challenge, and there’s little doubt Starmer would lose.
There is some chance that he will screw up his courage and place the bet. He may become convinced that to continue with Miliband is more risky for him than the real risks involved in firing him. But my bet would be that if this happens at all it will be at the last possible minute.
So is the Net Zero crash in progress? Yes. But the most likely outcome is that it has at least three more years to run.
The wild card in this is the economy. The budget is presented at the end of November, having been postponed until the last legally permissible date. It seems to be causing some difficulty! Who could have thought it?
If the budget results in a bond market crash and financial crisis, then its possible Starmer would be obliged to call an election. Not legally, but the pressure might become irresistible. In that case we can be pretty sure that the austerity measures that will result from a full blown UK financial crisis will put an end to Net Zero for good.
How likely? I would guess the odds of a bond crisis are around 50% at this point. And the odds of this putting an end to Net Zero, if it happens? Hard to say. Miliband is a fanatic, as are the Greens and the Liberals. They could all hang in there taking the country off the cliff regardless. At a guess, the odds might be 25% if the financial crisis happens. But yes, they seem to be crazy enough about this that even with a crisis they may just close their eyes and accelerate over the cliff regardless. So its on the cards, but its not a sure thing by any means.
Be interested to know what other observers think of this.
Please note that the collapse of Net Zero doesn’t mean that folks will give up on CO2 and Climate Change. One is the (stupid) solution, the other is the “problem”.
CD in Wisconsin
October 5, 2025 1:26 am
At an event in Italy called Raising Hope for Climate Justice, Pope Leo actually took a moment to bless a chunk of ice from the Greenland ice sheet…..
The event is supposed to “foster a global response to the climate and ecological crisis from the perspectives of faith, politics, and civil society.”
This comes just days after President Trump called climate alarmism a con job at the UN General Assembly. If this conference doesn’t demonstrate that the climate alarmist narrative is a religion, then nothing does.
Well the police killed the attacker and one of the victims and injured one of the others. So the police response was actually more deadly than the attacker.
Mosques in the US need to be disassembled and the members sent to any Muslim country where they are more welcome and fit in. A low-cost solution to MAGA the US.
Lying is common, not only by Hamas but governments like Canada’s current one. BBC and CBC have been caught selectively reporting from the Middle East in order to gain access to anti-Israel operations.
The UK police yet again show how useless they are. This is taking the two tier policing to the extreme. I hope the families of the police attach sue the state.
Thank you for giving me a way to rationalize away the fact that my spiritual leader participated in a bizarre pagan ritual and is still committing the church to the anti-human project.
And what is he doing about behaviour of priests?
Some Catholic churches in the US are declaring bankruptcy to avoid paying damages to victims of sexual abuse.
(The recent pope from South America did take more action than previous ones, but more is needed.)
Almost all bishops are wannabe ding bats
When one of them is promoted to pope, he becomes a ding bat, who blesses an ice cube.
This shows the relevance of the Faith to the flock.
The pope makes mistakes just like you and I do. He is also capable of failing to have the courage to stand for truth, just as you or I do.
People misunderstand the very unfortunate term ‘papal infallibility’ and conclude that this sort of charade proves that the Catholic faith is false. That’s the worst effect of these papal flights of fancy.
Papal infallibility is merely God’s promise that the pope will always confirm truths about faith and morals that have been handed down from Scripture and the apostles. He can’t add to revelation strange new doctrine.
This is a prudential judgement where we think he is being imprudent and flat out wrong, in the footsteps of his predecessor. The pope is not inerrant on all matters. Nor is he impeccable (unable to sin).
I guess that we should be more like Shem and Japheth who covered for their father Noah’s nakedness (Gen 9:22) and not like Ham who called attention to it. (But I am also a sinner).
Despite this indiscretion, I don’t wish JD Vance praying for him 😛
Westfieldmike
October 5, 2025 1:28 am
Latest satellite measurements released. Global temperatures have been falling for the last two years. My wife is visiting Montenegro this week. Some trips cancelled due to heavy snow and blizzards. The earliest for at least 30 years.
We’re having a glorious October in Central Missouri. Most of the tree leaves are still green. Peak leaf viewing is typically the end of this month, to give you some perspective.
Here in SW MO, avg. 1st frost is-what?-about 10 days away I think. Loving the warm right now, but I’ve got my firewood stacked…Leaves will be next; already falling but then we’ve been droughted.
I posted this on Facebook a couple weeks ago. No need to be serious ALL the time. :).
#################
For what it’s worth: Why do opinions differ on “climate change”?
I offer this simplified technical analysis of conformity machine anomalies arising within the central alignment mainframe at the Lost Animals National Laboratory. This is all just common sense when you think about it.
It turns out that the modulation of social and anti-social compression factors has unexpectedly reverted to pre-historical norms of variance, which of course cannot be adjudicated in the present in the sense of relativistic validity. But experts have now induced an INVERSION rather than a REVERSION, from within the communication processor instruction set, as the configuration tabs in the media manipulation module of the opinionator core have recently been provided with selection bias settings that go to 11 instead of only 10. A Monte Carlo set of parametric scenarios is already being generated in the synthetic pixel chamber, and convergence scores can soon be compiled for quantum approval. This will enable uniformity tables to be defined and populated, then pushed out in the next update, which will be designated as generation 4.2, build 2025.7.
Who knew it could be so simple to figure out? Stay tuned.
Please carry on.
############
Now back to our regular channel. If you have not yet seen this material about energy conversion within the general circulation, I offer it again here. Start with the Readme document to get the point.
I think it’s worth posting again in the open thread, David’s and my exchange of yesterday on another article…..instead of the thousand watts I stated, it is thousands of watts….
According to IPCC….CO2 forcing is 5.35 LN(C/Co)…..so works out to about 6 watts/sq.M…after multiplying by Ln 2 and IR ground to TOA of 390/240 to allow for greenhouse effect…Still 6 watts…about that of a laptop computer fan….at the bottom of a square meter by 12 km high column of air that weighs 10 tonnes and already has an integrated convective and advective energy of about 1000 watts (Dibbell, where is your graph when I need it?)….so practically speaking….. doubling CO2 will have an imperceptible effect, except possibly increasing convection rate by an average of 6/1000 and a slight change in lapse rate…..
…although the climate crazies are caught up in 6 watts out of 160 surface sunlight absorption…thus 4% of our present 288C, 1/3 IR through the atmospheric window…thereby convince themselves of 6 or 7 C of warming per CO2 doubling. But ecologists and heat transfer specialists don’t speak the same language or even go to the same parties….although it seems politicians and ecologists attend buddy functions heavy on poor STEM….
There is no such phenomena as climate change because most of the earth is water, ice, snow, rocks, and sand. Activities of humans are not going to effect the climate of the vast Pacific ocean, the Rocky mountains or the Sahara desert. However, activities of humans can effect the climate of urban areas due to the UHI effect.
The Met Office is a scandal. They have been putting out bogus temperature data for a long time. They should be investigated for science fraud and lying to the Public.
If we had investigations, Tom, it would have to include everything, every arm of the state. Just for the grooming gangs… the police, social services, local and national government are all in the frame…
Nazir Afzal, Former North West Chief Prosecutor, told the BBC that in 2008 the Home Office sent a circular email to all police forces calling on them to not investigate the sexual exploitation of young girls in towns and cities across the UK.
Speaking on the Radio 4’s PM programme, Mr Afzal the former North West Prosecutor who reversed a Crown Prosecution Service decision and successfully prosecuted the notorious Rochdale rape gang, said: “You may not know this, but back in 2008 the Home office sent a circular to all police forces in the country saying ‘as far as these young girls who are being exploited in towns and cities, we believe they have made an informed choice about their sexual behaviour and therefore it is not for you police officers to get involved in.’” – Labour’s Cover Up
Hence…
Survivor anger as Oldham offered ‘truth project’ instead of grooming gang inquiry – MSN
I used Adelaide as the city entry since it has long temperature record beginning in 1887. The Tmax and Tmin data are displayed in a table from 2024 to 1887. At the top of the page, there is the “Select City” box into which you enter the name of a city. If the city’s data is in NOAA’s data base, the city name will appear below the box. Click on it to get the data. You have to enter the name of city after …/cities/ or a 404 error is returned. I was also to get data for Death Valley and Yellowstone Nat. Park.
Temperature and climate data for the city are displayed in a different format. There links at the bottom of the page for accessing others features of the website.
try better https://extremeweatherwatch.com
you missed the “h” in weather in the “home” website
But thanks for the link, fine to have a look at Germanys data.
Thank you very much for spotting the error and posting the correct URL. Why didn’t the spell checker catch the error? I tried to make a correction to the URL, but I was past the five minute window for making corrections after posting comment
It looks like it was warmer in the past in Adelaide than it is today.
That’s usually what you see in regional surface temperature charts. There are No Hockey Stick chart temperature profiles in the written record.
So where did Phil Jones get a Hockey Stick chart “hotter and hotter and hotter” temperature profile from if it is not in the original temperature data? Answer: He made it up out of whole cloth to sell the Human-caused Climate Change narrative. It’s a Big Lie. It’s THE Big Lie, that all this Climate Alarmism is based on.
I have reached the conclusion that it is less fraud than incompetence. The fraud occurs with the reluctance to admit that his method of analysis is faulty. A lot of climate science is guilty of that.
When time is independent variable, there is auto correlation and seasonality involved that change the statistical means and variance over time. This results in a trend line that has spurious outcomes that look like growth.
Combining spurious trends just magnifies the problem and makes the resulting trend look incredible. Plotting more local temperature trends in their basic values of Tmax and Tmin gives more believable results as you have shown. Ask yourself how averages of trends without growth can result in a trend with massive growth.
As you likely know, many people think (even at the level of the professoriate) that averaging makes data better. The more averaging the better the data. It is because of the dismal state of education that this is so. By the time I graduated with a Physics B.Sc. I had yet to get any grounding at all in statistical science. Had to teach myself starting in graduate school.
I have advocated for a long time that a high school graduation requirement of a course in inference from data would aid in better judgment widely.
Then I met a young lady who had taken AP Statistics in high school and who told me the teacher was so poorly prepared that she had learned nothing from it.
So now in addition to the H.S. graduation requirement we also need better teacher preparation. This now runs a reformer headlong into the teacher unions and administrative bureaucracy.
I think William Briggs (Statistician to the Stars!) [on WUWT’s bookmarks] has written much on “averaging”.
Regarding high school teachers – I went to a “teachers college” [another lifetime ago]. There were (are?) required general education classes. Then there were the learning about learning classes, and the legalities of being in a public school. These seemed to take half the time. I did learn some math and science but was unprepared to teach it to smart high school students.
Here is a video of 20 minutes of weather stations that show no warming. Unless someone can explain why the increase in CO2 didn’t cause warming in these locations, you can’t claim CO2 causes warming. What you can claim is that something other than CO2 is causing the warming at the other locations. That is basic science 101 and why we do controlled experiments. https://app.screencast.com/YhtT15qlGLIsC
I use LibreOffice Writer and ‘extremeweatherwatch’ gets flagged but the full URL does not. Same here on WUWT. I assume URLs are not treated as regular words.
You should also check out the late John Daly’s website:
“Still Waiting for Greenhouse” available at: http://www.john-daly.com.
From the home page, page down to the end and click on:
“Station Temperature Data”. On the “World Map”, click on: “Australia”. There is displayed in table a list of stations. Click on station, and there is displayed a plot of the annual average temperatures, and for Brisbane there are also plots of seasonal temperatures. Click on the back arrow to the list of the stations. Click on the back arrow again to return to the World Map.
Shown in the chart (See below) is a plot of annual temperatures from 1857 to 1999 in Adelaide The plot shows a slight cooling from 1857. In 1857, the concentration of CO2 in dry air was ca. 280 ppmv (0.55 g CO2/cu. m.) and by 1999, it had increased to ca. 370 ppmv (0.73 g CO2/cu. m.), but there was no corresponding increase in air temperature. This chart falsifies the claim made in 1988 by the IPCC that CO2 cause warming of air.
Darn it. I just posted the wrong chart for Adelaide. This is a chart made from data from the extremeweatherwatch website.
NB: If you click on the chart, it will expand and become clear. Click on the “X” in the circle to return to comment text
Note the slight warming after 2007. The chart was prepared for me by my son. Here is the chart for Adelaide from John Daly’s website.
Not allowed to post chart in second a reply. See following comment.
Harold,
Ever since my first foray into global warming, I have obtained “raw” daily temperature data for some 1,200 Australian weather stations from the public web site Climate Data Online, curated by our Bureau of Meteorology.
It is non-controversial as to access. It is used to generate adjusted data sets like the BOM ACORN-SAT, which is highly controversial.
What is the purpose of your mention of temperatures like Adelaide’s from the old John Daly web site? Are they not the same as those from the BOM’S CDO? If they are, it is widely known that the time series for Tmax at many stations (including key, long record stations Adelaide, Darwin, Alice Springs and Sydney Observatory), have data discontinuities roughly in the WWII era.
For these major, critical stations, it is widely known that the raw Tmax data from about the 1880s to now shows global cooling patterns. The global warming narrative is possible only if adjustments are made to lower the early part of the time series. As these adjustments have to be huge, say minus 2 to minus 4 degrees C (-3.6 to -7.3 degrees C), to give no warming or to give cooling, such adjustments are mathematically and scientifically invalid when incorporated as they are in claims like the official Australian continental warming of 1.4 degrees C over the last 100 years or so.
The notion of Australian global warming is extremely dependent on these WWII era adjustments, but is even more complicated when later mechanisms at virtually all stations are adjusted, such as changes from liquid in glass thermometers to electronic types like platinum resistance, changes in screen type from Stevenson to smaller screens, the change from manual observations to electronic and more.
The web site, bomwatch, operated by colleague Dr Bill Johnston, gives many examples of adjusted stations, with his attempt to improve understanding by incorporation of local rainfall as a variable. You can agree or not with his scientific methodology, but the questionable quality of the raw data he uses is there to believe.
Throughout all this uncertainty, our BOM has been markedly uncooperative, frequently insulting to those seeking answers and cooperative with Establishment bodies like our CSIRO and Australian Academy of Science and a succession of Chief Scientists, all of whom have done serious harm by assuming that we have global warming then selectively choosing adjusted data to support their narrative. Coupled with the illogical Appeal to Authority, objections to the global warming story are smothered and seldom mentioned by a compliant media.
Geoff S
adaptune
October 5, 2025 2:56 am
I signed up for email notifications, not realizing I’d get an email for each story posted. Now I’m getting TWO emails for each story posted, and I’ve not been able to stop them. When I hit the “unsubscribe” link, it brings up WordPress and a notification “Subscription not found.” Or if I log onto WordPress and look for WattsUpWithThat, it shows me not subscribed to it and asks if I’d like to subscribe.
I wonder why bother with email notifications. I read every article and and a new one is posted every 4 hours around the clock. So, I know that every day when I turn on my computer there will be new ones as I nowadays only turn it on once or twice/day.
I do email notifications because I check my email first thing in the morning – so I go through them and see which articles I want to read that day. Since I still have a job (and a business) I don’t have the time to read them all.
It saves me a little time to not have to open the website and scroll. But also, I think it’s just a habit that I established like 15 years ago, so I’m just used to it.
The double email only started after the recent turmoil with the site, so I’m thinking it’s a WordPress glitch.
I am getting two per story also. I am running chrome as an OS. When odd stuff happens I usually ascribe it to a recent acquired incompatibility between the OS and the app.
The same happened to me, I unsubscribed & now I get 3 emails for each story posted, so now I just delete 2 of them & read the 3rd … simpler than fighting the tech !!!
Quondam
October 5, 2025 3:02 am
The Wrath of the ALR
The first sighting of the ALR dates back to1862 when spotted by a Wm. Thomson, labeled “Convective Equilibrium” and presumed explanation for why atmospheric temperatures decrease with altitude. Thermal gradients equaled g/Cp, Cp a heat capacity per unit mass. That this ratio is independent of density seems not a consideration. Maxwell and Boltzmann were soon to show gravity does not induce thermal gradients in equilibrium systems. But the die had been cast. Today, “Radiative-Convective-Equilibrium” remains the only explanation sanctioned by the cardinals of Science, Engineering and Medicine. The Adiabatic Lapse Rate is irrefutable!
The past three decades have witnessed a passionate obsession for calculating the influence of surface temperature on tropospheric energy flux. How much must one increase this temperature to raise this flux 3.7 W/m2? After years of intensive/expensive/inscrutable computation, ‘equilibrium’ values for C02 doubling have been reduced to 1.5-4.5K warming. Perhaps ‘equilibrium’ merits clarification?
Classical thermodynamics is based on the assumption that thermodynamic states are path-independent. They know not whence nor wither. Definition of temperature requires co-definition of entropy, a proxy for dynamic information in physical description. With one exception, steady-states are dissipative. They require a steady influx of energy from external sources to forestall relaxation towards thermodynamic equilibrium, the singular state of zero dissipation and maximum entropy. As dissipation is necessarily positive, it implies minimal or parabolic behavior near equilibrium with fluxes proportional to gradients. For one-dimensional models, dissipation is given by the Carnot Equation, W=(J/T1)*(T1-T2), the product of an entropy flux and a temperature difference. As noted here last year, given three numbers (240W/m2, 285K, 220K), this equation and assumption of linear dissipation, high-school math suffices to calculate 0.82K warming. The three numbers are observables, sans explicit reference to radiation, convection, clouds, etc. Should one presume a flux-independent gradient (g/Cp), 4.4K.
At present, our society is indulging in an orgy of self-destructive virtue – courtesy the words of our good Baron Kelvin of Largs?
Good to see you here, qd, and good of you to provide a link to your webpages. I have an essay in que, I suppose, in which I discuss some of your results, but I am always loathe to ID people without permission, and I just refer to you as a “correspondent”. People ought to have a reading of your work.
Getting around to Kelvin, he was exceptional, but being exceptional often leads to arrogance, then to hubris, and then to making big mistakes preserved forever by scientific publishing. Kelvin’s was the Age of the Earth Controversy, which is a good tale to illuminate the wisdom of “Nullius in Verba”.
Kevin,
Glad to see you haven’t yet given up on WUWT. Any information I’ve put online (pdquondam.net), I consider in the public domain – feel free to fold, spindle and mutilate. Whatever possible other use is there for equations anyway? Current HBC software (python) is in HBC_VIIb.zip if you’re interested in computer puzzles. I have yet to come up with a radiation-convection profile differing more than 10% from the linear dissipation model described above.
Paul
I get busy with regulatory agencies in my home state for a time and this leads to my disappearance from WUWT and other places. At any rate, good to know that I can simply quote you and provide a link to your efforts.
I have been reading a book about the development of human activity around 3000 BC and noticed the attached image. This got me thinking about the explosion of technological and scientific advances over the past 40 years. As there seems to be a link between increased temperatures and human progress I was wondering whether the explosion of science and technological advances in the last 40 years is not coincidental with the increase in temperatures. Discuss.
1: I question whether the small increase in T could have an effect.
2: See this book: How the Scots Invented the Modern World: The True Story of …; by Arthur Herman
Scotland isn’t exactly the warm place needed for human development.
3: Further, I think that learning promotes more learning and, also, better transfer of knowledge helps. Note, humans have gone from oral traditions, to writing, to movable-type printing, to a digital age. See ARPANET (1966 – 1969) and TCP/IP (1983). And, there are more people. And, much activity now is taking place in air conditioned (cooled) buildings.
The Sun zenith is now firmly south of the equator and the SH is heating up. This year is warming a bit faster than last with daily solar intensity at 50S up by 3W/m^2 at this time of year compared with last year.
The NH is cooling is now down on last year with daily solar at 50N 2.5W/m^2 lower compared with same time last year. So winter advection up due to above average heating season to July, that is now history, combined with bellow average cooling will ensure winter snow extent above trend.
” winter snow extent above trend.” Washington State — Cascade Mountains — have been below average for about three years. Reservoirs are depleted, rivers are low, and irrigators have their knickers in twists. Climate models predict less snow – more rain. But that’s using RCP 8.5. Forget that. Let’s go with multiple feet of snow. I’m too old to shovel, so saving for a snow-blower.
Anyone who takes 2 seconds to study his work knows it’s fraudulent. Here is a video exposing the garbage this guy produced. https://app.screencast.com/nXfZcUyGR4QlR
Universities thrive by researchers getting grants and the “overhead”, perhaps 40 to 50% of salaries, that comes with that. The hysteria over AGW (climate change/crisis) has directed huge $$$ to people such as Mann. If the grants for research stop, such folks will become highly paid teachers and a cost to the school rather than a money source.
Lynn Joiner
October 5, 2025 6:59 am
Story Tip: Article in Nature from February claims acceleration in sea-level rise, based on satellite data: “The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades.”https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01761-5
Here’s the Abstract:
Abstract
The rise in globally averaged sea level—or global mean sea level—is one of the most unambiguous indicators of climate change. Over the past three decades, satellites have provided continuous, accurate measurements of sea level on near-global scales. Here, we show that since satellites began observing sea surface heights in 1993 until the end of 2023, global mean sea level has risen by 111 mm. In addition, the rate of global mean sea level rise over those three decades has increased from ~2.1 mm/year in 1993 to ~4.5 mm/year in 2023. If this trajectory of sea level rise continues over the next three decades, sea levels will increase by an additional 169 mm globally, comparable to mid-range sea level projections from the IPCC AR6.
A search finds no discussion here. WUWT? I’m getting bombarded by an alarmist worried that we’ll soon be heading to a “Jurassic climate”!
How reliable are satellite “measurements of sea level on near-global scales”?
2.1 mm is a tide gauge number. 1993 is the first year of the satellite measurement.The satelite data is consistently much higher then the tide gauges. A paper recently reviewed here had tide gauges showing no acceleration over time. The numbers I recall were 1 to 2mm/year. Keep in mind you got a miles high satellite trying to measure millimeters
These worries pop up like Whac-A-Moles.
Search WUWT for “sea level rise” and there are 252 pages that may, or may not, be relevant. Dates range from 19 years ago to 4 months ago. Your reference is only a year old. Someone who still cares will have to dissect it and compose a response. Someone will, now that you have found it.
My usual response is that the easy to melt ice has already melted. Humanity has more serious and immediate problems.
From Nasa sire this says it all the accuracy for these satellites is 3 centimeters! Satellite measurements are also very accurate. They can measure sea surface height to within about an inch (3 centimeters). But a satellite isn’t always over a specific location. So for changes that happen temporarily, like during a storm or a tsunami, local tide gauges can measure changes that a satellite might not see.
Mike,
The beam from the satellite that hits the surface has a finite area that I do not know. However, within that area of ever-moving ocean, there is variability even in a calm sea that has to be averaged to yield a single distance. The next observation as the satellite moves on will have its own granularity averaging effect. It is noise, even a puff of wind might cause it, let alone the slope of a wave hosting the spot. It is a factor among several that requires mathematical averaging to be useful. The satellite technique depends on the choice of math and stats used. It is understandable that those looking for acceleration will favour stats that help them. It is difficult to justify results claiming acceleration when the basic error magnitude is stated as 3 mm. Geoff S
It is understandable that those looking for acceleration will favour stats that help them.
3 cm is a monthly average figure which is a fantasy. When I investigated this some years ago in depth, I was amazed.
Beam width and averaging the returned pulse timing is the first point of guessing an altitude. Do you use the leading edge, the strongest signal, or the trailing edge.
Satellite orbital height changes due to gravitational anomalies of the earth. If I remember correctly, about 12 feet at any given time.
How do you get such small uncertainty? Average the hell out of all the data and divide by the √n. So you are seeing how accurate the placement of the mean is. That isn’t the variance in the actual measurements.
Satellite orbital height changes due to gravitational anomalies of the earth.
As I recollect, a moderate-resolution gravity model is used to compute the speed and position of the satellite. Some of the newer satellites may have GPS on board, allowing more accurate calculation of the height, but may still be dependent on the old gravity models far from shore. That may be a necessity because even though the mascons may be stationary, albeit not as accurately known as is claimed for the surface height, the gravitational attraction of the ocean varies with winds piling up water and atmospheric pressure creating domes and basins in the water. It boggles the mind to believe that while storms can change the shoreline by tens of feet, they can claim that they can extract a defensible average sea level to an inch.
“I’m getting bombarded by an alarmist worried that we’ll soon be heading to a “Jurassic climate”! “
You won’t convince them they are wrong, therefore the best approach is to agree with them, tell them it’s accelerating & point them to a few alarmist websites and YouTube videos to confirm their fear.
Also, suggest they move 100 miles north to escape the worst; that way, you will get rid of the stupid bastard, & you can live in peace.
“How reliable are satellite “measurements of sea level on near-global scales”?”
They are not, …
The NASA satellites Jason 1 – 2 – 3 & Sentinel-6 all have accuracies of ± 3 cm; so a possible variation of 60mm (2 ½ inches) over a fixed surface, now try to do that measurement on a moving surface that can have random undulations of up to 20m, over 3/4 of the globe.
plus … Atmospheric Conditions: Variability in atmospheric pressure and temperature can introduce errors in measurements. Orbital Drift: Changes in the satellite’s orbit over time require corrections to maintain accuracy. Position of the Moon causing a tidal bulge.
And completely irrelevant, being fixed to a crust which is constantly moving up, down and sideways. Might as well fix them to the side of a large ship. They will show rises and falls depending on the ships load.
Sunken cities and deep oil deposits demonstrate that land can plunge well below present sea levels. Marine fossils above 6000 m show that land can soar well above present sea levels.
As ocean basins change their shapes due to crustal movements, the level of the more-or-less constant mass of liquid water within the basins will seem to rise or fall in relation to the margins.
What has any of this to do with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?
I said, ‘Tide gauges are the most accurate way we have.’
I didn’t say they were truly accurate …
(although they are pretty good at showing local relative data.)
… but local tide gauges are more accurate than satellites.
* “What has any of this to do with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere? Nothing – that’s what!”
i wasn’t questioning their accuracy, rather the ignorance and gullibility of those who believe they are useful – except in some exceptional cases.
Tides rise and fall. Generally twice a day, but more in some places, fewer in others, and possibly not at all at amphodromic points.
Measuring things just because you can is generally a complete waste of time, although Tycho Brahe’s observations were used by Kepler to develop his three laws of planetary motion. Unfortunately, Tycho’s own speculations (the Tychonic system), were rubbish.
Well, tidal gauges have been in place around the world, some for quite a long time, so might as well make what use we can of the data. If they seem quite steady over time, it does suggest that acceleration of sea-level rise is not occurring.
Not in tornado alley, but tornados do occur such as in farmland south of Edmonton Alberta so little damage – but a few decades ago one hit an occupied campground, long ago one hit a residential area in the city, fatalities in both cases. I saw threatening weather there in late summer of 2003, only casualty was broken arm of a golfer who took shelter in a gazebo on the course.
Story tip: https://open.substack.com/pub/davidturver/p/net-zero-crumbling-slowly-at-first-then-suddenly?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email,
People are more likely to look at a site if they know what it’s about- rather than just a link.
The URL is readable.
Change seems to come slowly, then all at once.
— H/T Pappa Hemingway.
Just like aging.
Its a very interesting piece: is it right? Its saying (with quite a few key examples cited in evidence) that Net Zero in the UK is entering the sudden collapse phase. The key example is that Kemi Badenoc, the Conservative Party Leader, has just announced at their annual conference that the Party is to repeal the Climate Change Act and abolish the Climate Change Committee.
This is certainly significant, and it joins Reform with their more vaguely expressed commitments along the same lines. So look at the polls, and you have parties close to 50% of the electorate behind them in favour of ending Net Zero root and branch.
It definitely means that Net Zero as policy is now fully up for public debate, and it means that the next round of settlements on renewable energy which Ed Miliband is negotiating now will attract attention and analysis.
But will it change to the extent that the piece conjectures, Starmer to fire Miliband and drop the whole mad idea? That I am not so sure about. He has already tried and bottled it once when Miliband refused to move from the Energy department. Miliband is the darling of the Labour Party membership, who are the ones who will vote for the next leader. The Party membership are total lunatics, they are, remember, the ones who installed Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Firing Miliband could well provoke a leadership challenge, and there’s little doubt Starmer would lose.
There is some chance that he will screw up his courage and place the bet. He may become convinced that to continue with Miliband is more risky for him than the real risks involved in firing him. But my bet would be that if this happens at all it will be at the last possible minute.
So is the Net Zero crash in progress? Yes. But the most likely outcome is that it has at least three more years to run.
The wild card in this is the economy. The budget is presented at the end of November, having been postponed until the last legally permissible date. It seems to be causing some difficulty! Who could have thought it?
If the budget results in a bond market crash and financial crisis, then its possible Starmer would be obliged to call an election. Not legally, but the pressure might become irresistible. In that case we can be pretty sure that the austerity measures that will result from a full blown UK financial crisis will put an end to Net Zero for good.
How likely? I would guess the odds of a bond crisis are around 50% at this point. And the odds of this putting an end to Net Zero, if it happens? Hard to say. Miliband is a fanatic, as are the Greens and the Liberals. They could all hang in there taking the country off the cliff regardless. At a guess, the odds might be 25% if the financial crisis happens. But yes, they seem to be crazy enough about this that even with a crisis they may just close their eyes and accelerate over the cliff regardless. So its on the cards, but its not a sure thing by any means.
Be interested to know what other observers think of this.
Please note that the collapse of Net Zero doesn’t mean that folks will give up on CO2 and Climate Change. One is the (stupid) solution, the other is the “problem”.
At an event in Italy called Raising Hope for Climate Justice, Pope Leo actually took a moment to bless a chunk of ice from the Greenland ice sheet…..
Pope Blesses Chunk Of Ice On Camera, Sparks Ridicule, But Why Did He Do It? | WION
The event is supposed to “foster a global response to the climate and ecological crisis from the perspectives of faith, politics, and civil society.”
This comes just days after President Trump called climate alarmism a con job at the UN General Assembly. If this conference doesn’t demonstrate that the climate alarmist narrative is a religion, then nothing does.
Why doesn’t he defend his global flock from a competing belief system? The one that feels the need to call itself a religion of peace?
Well the pope’s religion is a religion of appease, so they’re kinda on the same side.
So far this year 1618 Islamic attacks in 44 countries, in which 10394 people were killed and 5465 injured.
https://www.thereligionofpeace.com/attacks/attacks.aspx?Yr=2025
Shhhh
2025.10.02 England Manchester 2 killed 4 injured
An Islamic car ramming and stabbing attack on a synagogue on Yom Kippur leaves two dead.
Well the police killed the attacker and one of the victims and injured one of the others. So the police response was actually more deadly than the attacker.
I see you like to justify islamism.
Noted.
Whatever, idiot.
A Mosque was attacked today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2dglp43xmo.amp
Mosques in the US need to be disassembled and the members sent to any Muslim country where they are more welcome and fit in. A low-cost solution to MAGA the US.
Whatever, idiot.
A lefty ad hominem? Surely not?
The BBC? Not funny. But you are.
BBC documentary ‘ignored evidence Hamas killed Gazans in aid queues’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/04/bbc-documentary-gaza-killings-hamas-aid-queues/
Lying is common, not only by Hamas but governments like Canada’s current one. BBC and CBC have been caught selectively reporting from the Middle East in order to gain access to anti-Israel operations.
Hmmm… No one killed. No one injurred.
So this is proposed by you as an equivalency?
Islam is incompatible with the West.
Islam is incompatible with anything not Islamic. That is fundamental to the religion.
The UK police yet again show how useless they are. This is taking the two tier policing to the extreme. I hope the families of the police attach sue the state.
How utterly woke they are.
Technically correct, but think about it.
How many dead and injurred if the terrorist had stayed home?
Some people need to study “fog of war.”
It applies.
Book marked
I thought the Episcopalians were “The Church of What’s Happening Now.”
You could argue that Pope Leo is simply joining hands with another religion to show his tolerance for others.
Or bending over…
Thank you for giving me a way to rationalize away the fact that my spiritual leader participated in a bizarre pagan ritual and is still committing the church to the anti-human project.
“ Pope Leo actually took a moment to bless a chunk of ice from the Greenland ice sheet…..“
The least he could have done is put a sombrero on it first !!
To stop it melting in the sun. 😉
Mr. 2000: The Pope wanted to put on a real show and bless a “reset” button, but Hillary Clinton said she gave it to Putin.
😉
And what is he doing about behaviour of priests?
Some Catholic churches in the US are declaring bankruptcy to avoid paying damages to victims of sexual abuse.
(The recent pope from South America did take more action than previous ones, but more is needed.)
A Papal Encyclical on a frozen chunk of water. I suppose that could be called an Icicle or a Popsicle.
That ice is now holy. It dare not melt. 🙂
Almost all bishops are wannabe ding bats
When one of them is promoted to pope, he becomes a ding bat, who blesses an ice cube.
This shows the relevance of the Faith to the flock.
The faith is not the pope. (Deo gratias)
Trouble is, that the pope makes a mockery of his faith.. nearly every pope does it.
The Popemobile is an example of that. It was built after an assassination attempt back in the 1980s, and has a lot of bulletproof glass in it.
Drew Carey had a good take on it, though: “If the Pope’s afraid to die, WTF chance do the rest of us have?”
I am a Catholic and this Pope is a Twat
The pope makes mistakes just like you and I do. He is also capable of failing to have the courage to stand for truth, just as you or I do.
People misunderstand the very unfortunate term ‘papal infallibility’ and conclude that this sort of charade proves that the Catholic faith is false. That’s the worst effect of these papal flights of fancy.
Papal infallibility is merely God’s promise that the pope will always confirm truths about faith and morals that have been handed down from Scripture and the apostles. He can’t add to revelation strange new doctrine.
This is a prudential judgement where we think he is being imprudent and flat out wrong, in the footsteps of his predecessor. The pope is not inerrant on all matters. Nor is he impeccable (unable to sin).
I guess that we should be more like Shem and Japheth who covered for their father Noah’s nakedness (Gen 9:22) and not like Ham who called attention to it. (But I am also a sinner).
Despite this indiscretion, I don’t wish JD Vance praying for him 😛
Latest satellite measurements released. Global temperatures have been falling for the last two years. My wife is visiting Montenegro this week. Some trips cancelled due to heavy snow and blizzards. The earliest for at least 30 years.
Must be due to
global warmingclimate change! /sWe’re having a glorious October in Central Missouri. Most of the tree leaves are still green. Peak leaf viewing is typically the end of this month, to give you some perspective.
Same in Vermont, with blue skies week after week., mid 70s
Sitting on the porch typing this.
Central Washington State, with blue skies this morning it is 37°F.
Expected high today is 62!
It is a chilly 11° C here Burnaby, BC.
Need more CO2, evidently!
Here in SW MO, avg. 1st frost is-what?-about 10 days away I think. Loving the warm right now, but I’ve got my firewood stacked…Leaves will be next; already falling but then we’ve been droughted.
Bulgaria had a major snow storm and low gas supply, because they believed Brussels bull manure.
I posted this on Facebook a couple weeks ago. No need to be serious ALL the time. :).
#################
For what it’s worth: Why do opinions differ on “climate change”?
I offer this simplified technical analysis of conformity machine anomalies arising within the central alignment mainframe at the Lost Animals National Laboratory. This is all just common sense when you think about it.
It turns out that the modulation of social and anti-social compression factors has unexpectedly reverted to pre-historical norms of variance, which of course cannot be adjudicated in the present in the sense of relativistic validity. But experts have now induced an INVERSION rather than a REVERSION, from within the communication processor instruction set, as the configuration tabs in the media manipulation module of the opinionator core have recently been provided with selection bias settings that go to 11 instead of only 10. A Monte Carlo set of parametric scenarios is already being generated in the synthetic pixel chamber, and convergence scores can soon be compiled for quantum approval. This will enable uniformity tables to be defined and populated, then pushed out in the next update, which will be designated as generation 4.2, build 2025.7.
Who knew it could be so simple to figure out? Stay tuned.
Please carry on.
############
Now back to our regular channel. If you have not yet seen this material about energy conversion within the general circulation, I offer it again here. Start with the Readme document to get the point.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1PDJP3F3rteoP99lR53YKp2fzuaza7Niz?usp=sharing
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Thanks David.
I’ve long suspected that the opinonator core bias settings should have been set to 11.
I’m much relieved about this, sleep will come more readily at night now I’m sure.
🥱 😵
I understood every single word you said… 😉
You should be able to get that published in Science and Nature. /s
I think it’s worth posting again in the open thread, David’s and my exchange of yesterday on another article…..instead of the thousand watts I stated, it is thousands of watts….
According to IPCC….CO2 forcing is 5.35 LN(C/Co)…..so works out to about 6 watts/sq.M…after multiplying by Ln 2 and IR ground to TOA of 390/240 to allow for greenhouse effect…Still 6 watts…about that of a laptop computer fan….at the bottom of a square meter by 12 km high column of air that weighs 10 tonnes and already has an integrated convective and advective energy of about 1000 watts (Dibbell, where is your graph when I need it?)….so practically speaking….. doubling CO2 will have an imperceptible effect, except possibly increasing convection rate by an average of 6/1000 and a slight change in lapse rate…..
…although the climate crazies are caught up in 6 watts out of 160 surface sunlight absorption…thus 4% of our present 288C, 1/3 IR through the atmospheric window…thereby convince themselves of 6 or 7 C of warming per CO2 doubling. But ecologists and heat transfer specialists don’t speak the same language or even go to the same parties….although it seems politicians and ecologists attend buddy functions heavy on poor STEM….
Reply
David Dibbell
Reply to
DMacKenzie
October 4, 2025 11:07 am
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1PDJP3F3rteoP99lR53YKp2fzuaza7Niz?usp=sharing
There is no such phenomena as climate change because most of the earth is water, ice, snow, rocks, and sand. Activities of humans are not going to effect the climate of the vast Pacific ocean, the Rocky mountains or the Sahara desert. However, activities of humans can effect the climate of urban areas due to the UHI effect.
? They say the Sahara is greening because of CO2, just to be arguementive. Does that count?
Yes, but next to nothing. Just a nice talking point.
Israel proved to make things grow in desert conditions, you must cleverly harvest the night dew.
Exactly correct.
A Yellow warning for the Met Office
Met Office Deletes Huge Chunks of Historic Temperature Data After Fabrication Claims
The move casts serious doubt over attempts by the Met Office to estimate temperature trends
https://dailysceptic.org/2025/10/05/met-office-deletes-huge-chunks-of-historic-temperature-data-after-fabrication-claims/
The Met Office is a scandal. They have been putting out bogus temperature data for a long time. They should be investigated for science fraud and lying to the Public.
If we had investigations, Tom, it would have to include everything, every arm of the state. Just for the grooming gangs… the police, social services, local and national government are all in the frame…
Nazir Afzal, Former North West Chief Prosecutor, told the BBC that in 2008 the Home Office sent a circular email to all police forces calling on them to not investigate the sexual exploitation of young girls in towns and cities across the UK.
Speaking on the Radio 4’s PM programme, Mr Afzal the former North West Prosecutor who reversed a Crown Prosecution Service decision and successfully prosecuted the notorious Rochdale rape gang, said: “You may not know this, but back in 2008 the Home office sent a circular to all police forces in the country saying ‘as far as these young girls who are being exploited in towns and cities, we believe they have made an informed choice about their sexual behaviour and therefore it is not for you police officers to get involved in.’” – Labour’s Cover Up
Hence…
Survivor anger as Oldham offered ‘truth project’ instead of grooming gang inquiry – MSN
Why are the persons who sent the letter never named?
That is true for the entire Labour Party clique that runs the government for now.
It is even worse than the autopen Biden clique
There’s no one to investigate. So they’ll just keep doing what they’re doing. 🙁
I guess that the Met Office does not use any version control.
I just discovered a website for the acquisition and display of weather and climate data from NOAA’s data base. Here is the URL for cities:
https://extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/adelaide/average-temperature-by year.
I used Adelaide as the city entry since it has long temperature record beginning in 1887. The Tmax and Tmin data are displayed in a table from 2024 to 1887. At the top of the page, there is the “Select City” box into which you enter the name of a city. If the city’s data is in NOAA’s data base, the city name will appear below the box. Click on it to get the data. You have to enter the name of city after …/cities/ or a 404 error is returned. I was also to get data for Death Valley and Yellowstone Nat. Park.
An auxiliary website for cities is:
https://exremeweatherwatch.com/cities/adelaide/weather/
Temperature and climate data for the city are displayed in a different format. There links at the bottom of the page for accessing others features of the website.
The home website is:
https://extremeweaterwatch.com.
There is displayed in blue highlight links to many sites such as US states and countries of the world.
This site is useful for check on UHI effects and warming at various sites.
I posted the above comment at Roy Spencer’s website, but he wacked it.
try better
https://extremeweatherwatch.com
you missed the “h” in weather in the “home” website
But thanks for the link, fine to have a look at Germanys data.
Thank you very much for spotting the error and posting the correct URL. Why didn’t the spell checker catch the error? I tried to make a correction to the URL, but I was past the five minute window for making corrections after posting comment
Shown below is the chart for Adelaide from John Daly’s website.
NB: If you click on the chart, it will expanded and become clear. Click on the “X” in the circle to return to comment text.
It looks like it was warmer in the past in Adelaide than it is today.
That’s usually what you see in regional surface temperature charts. There are No Hockey Stick chart temperature profiles in the written record.
So where did Phil Jones get a Hockey Stick chart “hotter and hotter and hotter” temperature profile from if it is not in the original temperature data? Answer: He made it up out of whole cloth to sell the Human-caused Climate Change narrative. It’s a Big Lie. It’s THE Big Lie, that all this Climate Alarmism is based on.
It is glaring Science Fraud.
I have reached the conclusion that it is less fraud than incompetence. The fraud occurs with the reluctance to admit that his method of analysis is faulty. A lot of climate science is guilty of that.
When time is independent variable, there is auto correlation and seasonality involved that change the statistical means and variance over time. This results in a trend line that has spurious outcomes that look like growth.
Combining spurious trends just magnifies the problem and makes the resulting trend look incredible. Plotting more local temperature trends in their basic values of Tmax and Tmin gives more believable results as you have shown. Ask yourself how averages of trends without growth can result in a trend with massive growth.
As you likely know, many people think (even at the level of the professoriate) that averaging makes data better. The more averaging the better the data. It is because of the dismal state of education that this is so. By the time I graduated with a Physics B.Sc. I had yet to get any grounding at all in statistical science. Had to teach myself starting in graduate school.
I have advocated for a long time that a high school graduation requirement of a course in inference from data would aid in better judgment widely.
Then I met a young lady who had taken AP Statistics in high school and who told me the teacher was so poorly prepared that she had learned nothing from it.
So now in addition to the H.S. graduation requirement we also need better teacher preparation. This now runs a reformer headlong into the teacher unions and administrative bureaucracy.
I think William Briggs (Statistician to the Stars!) [on WUWT’s bookmarks] has written much on “averaging”.
Regarding high school teachers – I went to a “teachers college” [another lifetime ago]. There were (are?) required general education classes. Then there were the learning about learning classes, and the legalities of being in a public school. These seemed to take half the time. I did learn some math and science but was unprepared to teach it to smart high school students.
Here is a video of 20 minutes of weather stations that show no warming. Unless someone can explain why the increase in CO2 didn’t cause warming in these locations, you can’t claim CO2 causes warming. What you can claim is that something other than CO2 is causing the warming at the other locations. That is basic science 101 and why we do controlled experiments. https://app.screencast.com/YhtT15qlGLIsC
Basic Science 101: https://app.screencast.com/xgTItkw2KwSuk
Especially since CO2 is generally referred to (or defined) as being “well-mixed.”
Any numbers beyond 1999 ?
I use LibreOffice Writer and ‘extremeweatherwatch’ gets flagged but the full URL does not. Same here on WUWT. I assume URLs are not treated as regular words.
You should also check out the late John Daly’s website:
“Still Waiting for Greenhouse” available at: http://www.john-daly.com.
From the home page, page down to the end and click on:
“Station Temperature Data”. On the “World Map”, click on: “Australia”. There is displayed in table a list of stations. Click on station, and there is displayed a plot of the annual average temperatures, and for Brisbane there are also plots of seasonal temperatures. Click on the back arrow to the list of the stations. Click on the back arrow again to return to the World Map.
Shown in the chart (See below) is a plot of annual temperatures from 1857 to 1999 in Adelaide The plot shows a slight cooling from 1857. In 1857, the concentration of CO2 in dry air was ca. 280 ppmv (0.55 g CO2/cu. m.) and by 1999, it had increased to ca. 370 ppmv (0.73 g CO2/cu. m.), but there was no corresponding increase in air temperature. This chart falsifies the claim made in 1988 by the IPCC that CO2 cause warming of air.
Darn it. I just posted the wrong chart for Adelaide. This is a chart made from data from the extremeweatherwatch website.
NB: If you click on the chart, it will expand and become clear. Click on the “X” in the circle to return to comment text
Note the slight warming after 2007. The chart was prepared for me by my son. Here is the chart for Adelaide from John Daly’s website.
Not allowed to post chart in second a reply. See following comment.
I’m having a real bad day for posting comments
The John Daly website is well known to me, thx 👍
he wacked it.
I wonder why? Not very tolerant.
If he clicks on the URL and it doesn’t work….what do you expect he’s gonna do?
I posted the correct URL’s at Roy Spencer’s website. Roy Spencer has a fixation on UHI effects.
He is a world expert on the subject
Indeed. I posted some FACTS that he apparently didn’t like…..
Another correction. The URL should be:
https://exetremeweatherwatch.com/cities/adelaide/average-temperature-by-year. I left out the”-” between “by” and “year”
Harold,
Ever since my first foray into global warming, I have obtained “raw” daily temperature data for some 1,200 Australian weather stations from the public web site Climate Data Online, curated by our Bureau of Meteorology.
It is non-controversial as to access. It is used to generate adjusted data sets like the BOM ACORN-SAT, which is highly controversial.
What is the purpose of your mention of temperatures like Adelaide’s from the old John Daly web site? Are they not the same as those from the BOM’S CDO? If they are, it is widely known that the time series for Tmax at many stations (including key, long record stations Adelaide, Darwin, Alice Springs and Sydney Observatory), have data discontinuities roughly in the WWII era.
For these major, critical stations, it is widely known that the raw Tmax data from about the 1880s to now shows global cooling patterns. The global warming narrative is possible only if adjustments are made to lower the early part of the time series. As these adjustments have to be huge, say minus 2 to minus 4 degrees C (-3.6 to -7.3 degrees C), to give no warming or to give cooling, such adjustments are mathematically and scientifically invalid when incorporated as they are in claims like the official Australian continental warming of 1.4 degrees C over the last 100 years or so.
The notion of Australian global warming is extremely dependent on these WWII era adjustments, but is even more complicated when later mechanisms at virtually all stations are adjusted, such as changes from liquid in glass thermometers to electronic types like platinum resistance, changes in screen type from Stevenson to smaller screens, the change from manual observations to electronic and more.
The web site, bomwatch, operated by colleague Dr Bill Johnston, gives many examples of adjusted stations, with his attempt to improve understanding by incorporation of local rainfall as a variable. You can agree or not with his scientific methodology, but the questionable quality of the raw data he uses is there to believe.
Throughout all this uncertainty, our BOM has been markedly uncooperative, frequently insulting to those seeking answers and cooperative with Establishment bodies like our CSIRO and Australian Academy of Science and a succession of Chief Scientists, all of whom have done serious harm by assuming that we have global warming then selectively choosing adjusted data to support their narrative. Coupled with the illogical Appeal to Authority, objections to the global warming story are smothered and seldom mentioned by a compliant media.
Geoff S
I signed up for email notifications, not realizing I’d get an email for each story posted. Now I’m getting TWO emails for each story posted, and I’ve not been able to stop them. When I hit the “unsubscribe” link, it brings up WordPress and a notification “Subscription not found.” Or if I log onto WordPress and look for WattsUpWithThat, it shows me not subscribed to it and asks if I’d like to subscribe.
Anybody know what to do?
I started getting two emails also…I unsubscribed one of the two names and that fixed it so far.
Both of the emails I get have the same unsubscribe link, and it takes me to a place that says I’m not subscribed.
I am getting two notifications also. Anyone know a fix.
I wonder why bother with email notifications. I read every article and and a new one is posted every 4 hours around the clock. So, I know that every day when I turn on my computer there will be new ones as I nowadays only turn it on once or twice/day.
I do email notifications because I check my email first thing in the morning – so I go through them and see which articles I want to read that day. Since I still have a job (and a business) I don’t have the time to read them all.
It saves me a little time to not have to open the website and scroll. But also, I think it’s just a habit that I established like 15 years ago, so I’m just used to it.
The double email only started after the recent turmoil with the site, so I’m thinking it’s a WordPress glitch.
I am getting two per story also. I am running chrome as an OS. When odd stuff happens I usually ascribe it to a recent acquired incompatibility between the OS and the app.
The same happened to me, I unsubscribed & now I get 3 emails for each story posted, so now I just delete 2 of them & read the 3rd … simpler than fighting the tech !!!
The Wrath of the ALR
The first sighting of the ALR dates back to1862 when spotted by a Wm. Thomson, labeled “Convective Equilibrium” and presumed explanation for why atmospheric temperatures decrease with altitude. Thermal gradients equaled g/Cp, Cp a heat capacity per unit mass. That this ratio is independent of density seems not a consideration. Maxwell and Boltzmann were soon to show gravity does not induce thermal gradients in equilibrium systems. But the die had been cast. Today, “Radiative-Convective-Equilibrium” remains the only explanation sanctioned by the cardinals of Science, Engineering and Medicine. The Adiabatic Lapse Rate is irrefutable!
The past three decades have witnessed a passionate obsession for calculating the influence of surface temperature on tropospheric energy flux. How much must one increase this temperature to raise this flux 3.7 W/m2? After years of intensive/expensive/inscrutable computation, ‘equilibrium’ values for C02 doubling have been reduced to 1.5-4.5K warming. Perhaps ‘equilibrium’ merits clarification?
Classical thermodynamics is based on the assumption that thermodynamic states are path-independent. They know not whence nor wither. Definition of temperature requires co-definition of entropy, a proxy for dynamic information in physical description. With one exception, steady-states are dissipative. They require a steady influx of energy from external sources to forestall relaxation towards thermodynamic equilibrium, the singular state of zero dissipation and maximum entropy. As dissipation is necessarily positive, it implies minimal or parabolic behavior near equilibrium with fluxes proportional to gradients. For one-dimensional models, dissipation is given by the Carnot Equation, W=(J/T1)*(T1-T2), the product of an entropy flux and a temperature difference. As noted here last year, given three numbers (240W/m2, 285K, 220K), this equation and assumption of linear dissipation, high-school math suffices to calculate 0.82K warming. The three numbers are observables, sans explicit reference to radiation, convection, clouds, etc. Should one presume a flux-independent gradient (g/Cp), 4.4K.
At present, our society is indulging in an orgy of self-destructive virtue – courtesy the words of our good Baron Kelvin of Largs?
https://pdquondam.net/Linear_Dissipation_Models.pdf
Good to see you here, qd, and good of you to provide a link to your webpages. I have an essay in que, I suppose, in which I discuss some of your results, but I am always loathe to ID people without permission, and I just refer to you as a “correspondent”. People ought to have a reading of your work.
Getting around to Kelvin, he was exceptional, but being exceptional often leads to arrogance, then to hubris, and then to making big mistakes preserved forever by scientific publishing. Kelvin’s was the Age of the Earth Controversy, which is a good tale to illuminate the wisdom of “Nullius in Verba”.
Kevin,
Glad to see you haven’t yet given up on WUWT. Any information I’ve put online (pdquondam.net), I consider in the public domain – feel free to fold, spindle and mutilate. Whatever possible other use is there for equations anyway? Current HBC software (python) is in HBC_VIIb.zip if you’re interested in computer puzzles. I have yet to come up with a radiation-convection profile differing more than 10% from the linear dissipation model described above.
Paul
I get busy with regulatory agencies in my home state for a time and this leads to my disappearance from WUWT and other places. At any rate, good to know that I can simply quote you and provide a link to your efforts.
Until radiative explanations account for the increased mass, up to 40 giga tons of CO2 per year, the Cp is the only true measure.
From what I read here, it appears that you Brits are still suffering from the likes of the Sheriff of Nottingham.
I have been reading a book about the development of human activity around 3000 BC and noticed the attached image. This got me thinking about the explosion of technological and scientific advances over the past 40 years. As there seems to be a link between increased temperatures and human progress I was wondering whether the explosion of science and technological advances in the last 40 years is not coincidental with the increase in temperatures. Discuss.
1: I question whether the small increase in T could have an effect.
2: See this book: How the Scots Invented the Modern World: The True Story of …; by Arthur Herman
Scotland isn’t exactly the warm place needed for human development.
3: Further, I think that learning promotes more learning and, also, better transfer of knowledge helps. Note, humans have gone from oral traditions, to writing, to movable-type printing, to a digital age. See ARPANET (1966 – 1969) and TCP/IP (1983). And, there are more people. And, much activity now is taking place in air conditioned (cooled) buildings.
Probably the timing of the first and last killing frost is of more importance than the average temperature.
The Sun zenith is now firmly south of the equator and the SH is heating up. This year is warming a bit faster than last with daily solar intensity at 50S up by 3W/m^2 at this time of year compared with last year.
The NH is cooling is now down on last year with daily solar at 50N 2.5W/m^2 lower compared with same time last year. So winter advection up due to above average heating season to July, that is now history, combined with bellow average cooling will ensure winter snow extent above trend.
” winter snow extent above trend.”
Washington State — Cascade Mountains — have been below average for about three years. Reservoirs are depleted, rivers are low, and irrigators have their knickers in twists.
Climate models predict less snow – more rain. But that’s using RCP 8.5. Forget that. Let’s go with multiple feet of snow. I’m too old to shovel, so saving for a snow-blower.
Will be interesting to see of the Cascades respond to the shifting solar intensity this year compared with last.
The “shifting solar intensity” is irrelevant compared to random seasonal variations in Pacific cloud cover and surface temp. Check the %ge’s
“combined with bellow average cooling”
no need to shout !! (:-))
How does this guy keep any job? Let alone one teaching others.
Michael Mann resigns from administrative post at UPennThe prominent climate scientist known for tangling with conservatives retains two other positions with the University of Pennsylvania, including as a professor.
POLITICO Pro | Article | Michael Mann resigns from administrative post at UPenn
No man is more responsible for the politicization of science than Michael Mann.
https://app.screencast.com/xgTItkw2KwSuk
Anyone who takes 2 seconds to study his work knows it’s fraudulent. Here is a video exposing the garbage this guy produced.
https://app.screencast.com/nXfZcUyGR4QlR
How do particular people fail upward? It’s a puzzle.
Peter Principle.
Universities thrive by researchers getting grants and the “overhead”, perhaps 40 to 50% of salaries, that comes with that. The hysteria over AGW (climate change/crisis) has directed huge $$$ to people such as Mann. If the grants for research stop, such folks will become highly paid teachers and a cost to the school rather than a money source.
Story Tip: Article in Nature from February claims acceleration in sea-level rise, based on satellite data:
“The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades.”https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01761-5
Here’s the Abstract:
A search finds no discussion here. WUWT? I’m getting bombarded by an alarmist worried that we’ll soon be heading to a “Jurassic climate”!
How reliable are satellite “measurements of sea level on near-global scales”?
2.1 mm is a tide gauge number. 1993 is the first year of the satellite measurement.The satelite data is consistently much higher then the tide gauges. A paper recently reviewed here had tide gauges showing no acceleration over time. The numbers I recall were 1 to 2mm/year. Keep in mind you got a miles high satellite trying to measure millimeters
Hundreds of miles high!
These worries pop up like Whac-A-Moles.
Search WUWT for “sea level rise” and there are 252 pages that may, or may not, be relevant. Dates range from 19 years ago to 4 months ago. Your reference is only a year old. Someone who still cares will have to dissect it and compose a response. Someone will, now that you have found it.
My usual response is that the easy to melt ice has already melted. Humanity has more serious and immediate problems.
Do you know how many miles up the satellite(s) is that measuring sea level??
From Nasa sire this says it all the accuracy for these satellites is 3 centimeters! Satellite measurements are also very accurate. They can measure sea surface height to within about an inch (3 centimeters). But a satellite isn’t always over a specific location. So for changes that happen temporarily, like during a storm or a tsunami, local tide gauges can measure changes that a satellite might not see.
Mike,
The beam from the satellite that hits the surface has a finite area that I do not know. However, within that area of ever-moving ocean, there is variability even in a calm sea that has to be averaged to yield a single distance. The next observation as the satellite moves on will have its own granularity averaging effect. It is noise, even a puff of wind might cause it, let alone the slope of a wave hosting the spot. It is a factor among several that requires mathematical averaging to be useful. The satellite technique depends on the choice of math and stats used. It is understandable that those looking for acceleration will favour stats that help them. It is difficult to justify results claiming acceleration when the basic error magnitude is stated as 3 mm. Geoff S
I’ll be nice and call it confirmation bias. Other variables are ocean temperature and the moon’s gravitational pull that causes ocean bulge
“basic error magnitude is stated as 3 mm?” Mike in the comment above said “3 centimeters.”
3 cm is a monthly average figure which is a fantasy. When I investigated this some years ago in depth, I was amazed.
Beam width and averaging the returned pulse timing is the first point of guessing an altitude. Do you use the leading edge, the strongest signal, or the trailing edge.
Satellite orbital height changes due to gravitational anomalies of the earth. If I remember correctly, about 12 feet at any given time.
How do you get such small uncertainty? Average the hell out of all the data and divide by the √n. So you are seeing how accurate the placement of the mean is. That isn’t the variance in the actual measurements.
As I recollect, a moderate-resolution gravity model is used to compute the speed and position of the satellite. Some of the newer satellites may have GPS on board, allowing more accurate calculation of the height, but may still be dependent on the old gravity models far from shore. That may be a necessity because even though the mascons may be stationary, albeit not as accurately known as is claimed for the surface height, the gravitational attraction of the ocean varies with winds piling up water and atmospheric pressure creating domes and basins in the water. It boggles the mind to believe that while storms can change the shoreline by tens of feet, they can claim that they can extract a defensible average sea level to an inch.
“I’m getting bombarded by an alarmist worried that we’ll soon be heading to a “Jurassic climate”! “
You won’t convince them they are wrong, therefore the best approach is to agree with them, tell them it’s accelerating & point them to a few alarmist websites and YouTube videos to confirm their fear.
Also, suggest they move 100 miles north to escape the worst; that way, you will get rid of the stupid bastard, & you can live in peace.
“How reliable are satellite “measurements of sea level on near-global scales”?”
They are not, …
The NASA satellites Jason 1 – 2 – 3 & Sentinel-6 all have accuracies of ± 3 cm; so a possible variation of 60mm (2 ½ inches) over a fixed surface, now try to do that measurement on a moving surface that can have random undulations of up to 20m, over 3/4 of the globe.
plus …
Atmospheric Conditions: Variability in atmospheric pressure and temperature can introduce errors in measurements.
Orbital Drift: Changes in the satellite’s orbit over time require corrections to maintain accuracy.
Position of the Moon causing a tidal bulge.
So, how accurate do you think that will be ???
Tide gauges are the most accurate way we have.
And completely irrelevant, being fixed to a crust which is constantly moving up, down and sideways. Might as well fix them to the side of a large ship. They will show rises and falls depending on the ships load.
Sunken cities and deep oil deposits demonstrate that land can plunge well below present sea levels. Marine fossils above 6000 m show that land can soar well above present sea levels.
As ocean basins change their shapes due to crustal movements, the level of the more-or-less constant mass of liquid water within the basins will seem to rise or fall in relation to the margins.
What has any of this to do with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?
Nothing – that’s what!
I said, ‘Tide gauges are the most accurate way we have.’
I didn’t say they were truly accurate …
(although they are pretty good at showing local relative data.)
… but local tide gauges are more accurate than satellites.
*
“What has any of this to do with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?
Nothing – that’s what!”
I totally agree.
i wasn’t questioning their accuracy, rather the ignorance and gullibility of those who believe they are useful – except in some exceptional cases.
Tides rise and fall. Generally twice a day, but more in some places, fewer in others, and possibly not at all at amphodromic points.
Measuring things just because you can is generally a complete waste of time, although Tycho Brahe’s observations were used by Kepler to develop his three laws of planetary motion. Unfortunately, Tycho’s own speculations (the Tychonic system), were rubbish.
Funny world, isn’t it?
Well, tidal gauges have been in place around the world, some for quite a long time, so might as well make what use we can of the data. If they seem quite steady over time, it does suggest that acceleration of sea-level rise is not occurring.
“It’s got electyronlytes!”
On a lighter note:
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2025/10/04/1-700-pound-squash-smashes-the-crap-out-of-a-porta-potty-at-state-pumpkin-drop/
You mean someone left one on the vine for a whole week?
Talk about dropping a load! 😎
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/rose-unplugged-marc-morano-climate-depot-climate-fatigue/
Reality sinking in ?
Putting the lie to claims of more severe weather:
The U.S. sees its first EF-5 tornado in more than 4,400 days – The Weather Network
Not in tornado alley, but tornados do occur such as in farmland south of Edmonton Alberta so little damage – but a few decades ago one hit an occupied campground, long ago one hit a residential area in the city, fatalities in both cases. I saw threatening weather there in late summer of 2003, only casualty was broken arm of a golfer who took shelter in a gazebo on the course.