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March 23, 2025 2:35 am

What if incremental CO2 acts as a helper molecule to slightly improve the radiative cooling tendency of the atmosphere?

I asked Grok (the X AI agent):

“Consider an isolated spherical unit volume of the atmosphere of 1 cubic meter. The temperature is 255K, the pressure is 540 hPa, and water vapor is present at 50% of the saturation vapor pressure at these conditions in this initial state. By “isolated” in this exercise, it means there will be no energy added to this unit volume by absorbing radiation, by conduction, or by convective means. Assume in the first case that the concentration of CO2 is 420 ppmv. Assume in the second case that CO2 is at 840 ppmv. Longwave radiative emission outward from this unit volume is expected to immediately result in cooling from the initial conditions. In which of these two cases will that instantaneous rate of cooling be greater?”

The final answer:
“The instantaneous rate of cooling due to longwave radiative emission will be greater in Case 2 (840 ppmv CO2) because the higher CO2 concentration increases the emissivity of the volume, leading to more efficient radiative energy loss. The difference is small, as water vapor dominates at 255 K, but the increase in CO2 still enhances the emission capability.”

Please don’t get me wrong. I don’t credit Grok or any AI agent with any authority at all. It’s just programmed to massively search and reapply what is out there already.

Consider that even if CO2’s direct longwave emissions don’t go very far, and even if an excited CO2 molecule is quickly deactivated by collision, the short-range influence of rising concentration would be to slightly intensify the radiative “bath” through its absorbing power, to “help” H2O molecules, aerosols, and ice crystals at high altitude to do their job converting the internal energy of >99% of the mass of the atmosphere to longwave radiation for cooling toward space.

For those with an X account, here is the inquiry and answer.
https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1901962111716147412

One more thing. There is no good reason to suppose that the re-supply of internal energy of the high-altitude atmosphere is only by longwave radiation from below. This is one of the reasons I keep posting about energy conversion. It is active throughout the depth of the troposphere.
[internal energy + potential energy] <–> [kinetic energy] It’s important to understand!
https://youtu.be/hDurP-4gVrY

And we mustn’t forget about the transformation of latent heat and the heat of fusion into tnternal energy as water condenses and freezes at high altitude too.

Thank you for your patience.

Reply to  David Dibbell
March 23, 2025 5:49 am

Without asking Grok, I think it goes a bit towards a warming effect from a cooling effect if you were to use 1000 hPA, 288 K, 420->840 ppm, but the effect is insignificant compared to the convective, advective and evaporative, LW and SW energy conversions going on.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
March 23, 2025 6:28 am

At 1000 hPa and 288K, there is still a slight improvement in the cooling tendency posed this way. Less so than at higher altitude because H2O molecules outnumber CO2 by a much higher ratio. Remember that this hypothetical case has no inbound energy – it just illustrates the slight improvement in the ability to emit using the initial internal energy. This results in a stronger internal radiative coupling of the atmosphere to itself and to the surface.

Reply to  David Dibbell
March 23, 2025 3:59 pm

Thanks for looking at that. Apologies for my laziness…I thought I knew the answer already….

Richard M
Reply to  David Dibbell
March 23, 2025 7:02 am

In general, I believe the correct answer to be no change. As CO2 increases you do get an increase in emissivity but you also get an increase in absorptivity of the same amount. This is why changes in CO2 concentration cannot increase the emission height.

However, you specifically claimed no energy could be added which isn’t what happens in our atmosphere. So, the answer to the question as specified is correct, but has nothing to do with what happens in the real atmosphere.

Reply to  David Dibbell
March 23, 2025 7:30 am

‘What if incremental CO2 acts as a helper molecule to slightly improve the radiative cooling tendency of the atmosphere?’

I don’t think so. As I’ve mentioned on many occasions, there’s no evidence in the geological record that CO2 is the ‘control knob’ of the Earth’s climate system. For me, believing that CO2 acts as a ‘helper molecule’ would not only run counter to this lack of evidence, but would also infer that I’m willing to play in the alarmists’ radiative-centric sandbox.

Richard M
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
March 23, 2025 8:13 am

I believe the “helper” part of the picture is in stabilizing the atmosphere. CO2 helps to maintain the lapse rate. As convection/winds move energy around the atmosphere, CO2 works to return the various layers to their lapse rate temperatures by adding or removing energy.

Reply to  Richard M
March 23, 2025 8:48 am

‘CO2 helps to maintain the lapse rate.’

Convection and the lapse rate are the result of GHGs, of which H2O (water vapor) is by far the most important. Water vapor is also in rough equilibrium with a liquid reservoir that covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface.

Richard M
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
March 23, 2025 9:42 am

Water vapor is most important in the lower atmosphere, but CO2 dominates in the upper half.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Richard M
March 23, 2025 4:24 pm

Water vapor is most important in the lower atmosphere, but CO2 dominates in the upper half.”

Sorry, but that’s meaningless word salad, isn’t it?

Richard M
Reply to  Michael Flynn
March 24, 2025 6:01 am

Only meaningless to people who don’t understand that CO2 is a well mixed gas and H2O is condenses out of the colder parts of the atmosphere leaving only trivial amounts.

These gases really do absorb and emit IR radiation.

Reply to  Frank from NoVA
March 23, 2025 10:56 am

Please consider that my post tightly specifies what behavior and what scale is being characterized. There has been a fair amount of material posted here at WUWT and elsewhere recently about thermalization and about the overwhelming probability of deactivation of an excited CO2 molecule by collision rather than by emission. This post today proposes that even so, the short-range influence of incremental CO2 is to make spontaneous longwave emission from a unit volume of air slightly more effective, powered by its own internal energy, as water vapor’s much wider range of emission wavelengths dominates. I’m not talking about a “climate” response. It’s more basic than that.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  David Dibbell
March 23, 2025 4:26 pm

David, without any external energy input, the gas mixture will cool all the way to absolute zero, regardless of its composition. Fast or slow, the end result is the same.

Reply to  Michael Flynn
March 23, 2025 4:48 pm

No kidding. The inquiry to Grok, however, was limited to a comparison of the instantaneous initial rates of cooling for the two cases.

Reply to  David Dibbell
March 23, 2025 4:28 pm

You will find that in reality ice dominates at 255K almost everywhere on the globe. The small ice particles above 255K descend quite slowly at around 140m per hour and water will be ejected well above 540HPa during convective instability, which dominates throughout the tropics where most of the solar energy enters the climate system. By the time the air descends to 273K where it transitions to condensate, the atmosphere above the LFC is charged for another cycle of instability.

The ice tends to layer as it descends due to the high cooling rate from the ice layers. We observe that as cirrus cloud but not all of the ice is even visible from the ground.

Cyclic instability preconditions the atmosphere to a supersaturated stated. So the conditions of 50% humidity is not relevant to real situations.

Wet bulb to dry bulb soundings do not give any indication of the presence of ice. But the rapid transition from high humidity to low humidity in a sounding is a sign that there is an ice layer if the temperature is above 273K.

Reply to  David Dibbell
March 24, 2025 5:51 am

CO2 is a helper molecule, is total scientific nonsense
As CO2 ppm increases, it becomes less and less effective as a GW gas.

Water vapor is the 800-lb Gorilla regarding GW

Reply to  wilpost
March 24, 2025 7:23 am

Thank you for your reply.

“CO2 is a helper molecule, is total scientific nonsense”
Another possibility is that you have simply missed the whole point of the post.

“As CO2 ppm increases, it becomes less and less effective as a GW gas.”
OK, but that is not what this is about.

“Water vapor is the 800-lb Gorilla regarding GW”
It also dominates longwave emission toward space from the clear atmosphere, and more so if you include the condensed and frozen forms of water vapor.

Reply to  David Wojick
March 23, 2025 3:39 am

This is good news. Just like border security, “All we needed was a new president.”

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  David Wojick
March 23, 2025 6:05 am

MCGA. Make Coal Great Again.

strativarius
March 23, 2025 2:40 am

While the US moves off to pastures more sensible, the UK is falling headlong into the abyss.

The University of Cambridge has sparked fury over its claims that Professor Stephen Hawking’s research benefited from the slave trade.
https://www.gbnews.com/news/cambridge-university-stephen-hawking-slave-trade

Shakespeare’s birthplace trust to ‘decolonise’ collection amid claims of promoting ‘white supremacy’ – The Standard

Government ‘absolutely up for the fight’ over net zero, Ed Miliband saysAmid some scepticism internally over No 10’s commitment to the green agenda, Miliband said that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves were 100% behind it
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/21/government-absolutely-up-for-the-fight-over-net-zero-ed-miliband-says

School cancels Easter service ‘in spirit of inclusivity’ and introduces Refugee Week – msm

Beat that Kalifornia…

Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 5:58 am

Almost as bad as Wokeachusetts. 🙂

Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 7:48 am

Europe’s elites have been using the Paris COP Agreements to get African countries to install highly subsidized, weather-dependent wind and solar systems provided by Europe.
.
They are paid for with onerous, long-term loans from the World Bank/IMF, and European banks, to keep these countries in colonial-style bondage.
These countries pay for the onerous loans with their valuable minerals.
.
Europe loved Biden, because his clique of handlers enabled Europe to do the same thing to the US, to ensure the US would have high energy costs/kWh, and would be uncompetitive in world markets.
All that to protect Europe’s $10 trillion of investments in the US, and its decades of trade surpluses.
.
That game plan came to a screeching halt when the idiotic, unpatriotic, illegally installed, on-autopen-Biden regime ended, and Trump took over.
.
Now, Trump and Co is trying to undo the damage of decades of woke, leftist Democrat malfeasance, waste, fraud and abuse, started and perfected under the woke, okie-dokie Obama regime.
.
Obama was using USAID to pretend to send ‘Aid’ overseas, but was laundering it to train “Rent-a-Riots” instead.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/excerpt-from-trump-s-speech-to-congress-on-march-4-2025
.
Today, the United Financial Elite (UFE) governs their “Rules-Based” world.
The UFE moves its money where profits can extracted.
In case of wars, the UFE will sell weapons, etc., to both sides

The UFE mirrors the old aristocracy. They gather packs of vassals to keep the common people in check for them.
There is even a Young Leaders training center for it in upscale, jet-set Davos.
.
In return, these vassals enjoy minor privileges. Just like their noble predecessors, the elites often quarrel among themselves, sometimes escalating into wars. No one seems to object to this.
The killed victims do not protest, and the survivors are brainwashed to blame the opposing side for their miseries.
.
The elites do not care who among their ranks defeats the other, as long as large-scale capital ownership is not endangered.
.
The general public is usually kept unaware of these internal conflicts within the UFE, as they occur behind the scenes. 
In case “stuff” comes out, the Corporate Media, in service of the UFE, will use its enormous foghorn to “shape the narrative”
.
For the UFE as a whole, it is no different from the aristocrats of old. Except that now, it is not just landownership that is untouchable, but all forms of property.
Terrorism on Teslas will be punished with long jail terms in El Salvador.
.
How the elites divide the loot is fought out among themselves; the commoners have no say in the matter and only serve to perish during their elite tournaments.

Reply to  wilpost
March 23, 2025 3:25 pm

In case of wars, the UFE will sell weapons, etc., to both sides.

UFE – successors to the Rothschilds?

George Thompson
Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 9:10 am

Good God, man-don’t give them any more really bad ideas!

Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 9:38 am

‘The University of Cambridge has sparked fury over its claims that Professor Stephen Hawking’s research benefited from the slave trade.’

Of course – slavery didn’t exist until it was invented by Europeans, and Britain played no role in its eradication. At some time in the future, when our descendants are poking in the mud with sharp sticks to eke out a subsistence existence, they’ll probably wish we had burned our post-modern universities to the ground.

Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 10:58 am

A nurse is attending to a male convicted pedophile sent from a secure prison. He (if I may so refer to him) hears her discussing his case with a doctor. He has a catheter, and she is discussing the implications for discharge. He becomes enraged that she is referring to him as ‘Mr’ and ‘he’, because he identifies as a woman. She explained that her Christian beliefs forbade her to refer to him as ‘she’, but she would call him by his name. He then started to racially abuse her:

The patient began to verbally abuse the nurse, saying: “Imagine if I called you n—–? How about I call you n—–? Yes, black n—–.”
The patient also lunged at her despite being restrained and threatened to make a complaint, she said.

Who is at fault here? The Telegraph’s account continues:

Last month, Ms Melle received a letter from the Nursing and Midwifery Council, which is assessing her ability to practise.

Its code of conduct states nurses should “not express your personal beliefs (including political, religious or moral beliefs) in an inappropriate way. Therefore, although [Ms Melle] felt unable to identify Patient X using the preferred pronouns due to her religion… it could be perceived that [Ms Melle’s] actions could… be seen as a potential breach of the code”.

Ms Melle has denied there was any breach of the code and said that a white colleague also referred to the patient as a male but suffered no abuse or investigation.

Meanwhile in another part of the National Health Service

Eight nurses at Darlington Memorial Hospital are suing the County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust, their employer, for sexual discrimination and sexual harassment after Rose Henderson, a transgender nurse, was allowed to use a female changing room.

Such episodes are almost a daily occurrence in the UK nowadays. And as R D Laing once said, if you cannot talk about it, you cannot talk about the fact that you cannot talk about it.

Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 11:43 am

Oh my once-beloved alma mater, how much further can you descend into the morass of insanity?

With Mahmoud Al-Starma at the helm of the nation, the answer appears to be — there are no limits to insanity any more….

RIP the 18th century enlightenment -– you had a good run. We will miss you.

strativarius
March 23, 2025 4:10 am

Ed Miliband plotting ANOTHER eco levy which will send household energy bills even higher

The Energy Secretary is consulting on plans for a new levy on gas shippers to bankroll the rollout of hydrogen.
In official documents, his department admits: “It is our assumption that gas shippers, and suppliers, will pass on costs directly to their customers.”

Miliband is already under pressure over his dash for Net Zero. He promised to slash energy bills by £300 – but they have rocketed since he took over the brief
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/33990005/ed-miliband-eco-levy-hydrogen/

This guy is a 24 carat loon.

Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 4:46 am

He’s dangerous and needs locking up.

Tom Johnson
Reply to  strativarius
March 23, 2025 6:11 am

A 24 carat loon will be quite valuable when Canada becomes a state.

March 23, 2025 4:23 am

This is for Tom Halla:

Tom, Mark Levine did a show last night on Fox News Channel that you ought to see, if you haven’t already.

Mark had a lot to say about Former President Woodrow Wilson and none of it was good.

There will be a replay of this program, “Life, Liberty, & Levine” today on Fox News Channel at 4pm Central Time. I would recommend this show to everyone.

DipChip
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 23, 2025 9:19 am

Mark sounded just like my Father; He used to Rant on Wilson every day until I left home, Dad claimed Wilson and FDR were the downfall of America. In 1913 dad was 26 and made it until a week before Nixon resigned. J J Pershing had an integrated Army in Europe in 1917-18 that Wilson overturned. Dad used to tell me we had an unelected President for nearly 18 months; after his stroke his wife ran the executive branch. Dad ended up as a WW1 veteran and a near victim of the Spanish Flu.

Erik Magnuson
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 23, 2025 10:51 am

I remember being puzzled why Orwell used “liberty cabbage” in 1984. After reading Barry’s The Great Influenza, with many comments about life under Wilson during WW1, I realized that Orwell was making a point about Wilson as well. Libert cabbage was not the only reference to Wilson in 1984.

March 23, 2025 5:00 am

I see where President Trump yesterday was promoting the next-generation fighter jet from the United States, the F-47.

Trump says you won’t see it coming, and you won’t know what hit you. But he says he hopes never to have to use it. He says it has been in development for five years.

Trump says the generals named the aircraft, not him. 🙂

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 23, 2025 5:37 am

The president also said “The F-47 will be the most advanced, most capable, most lethal aircraft ever built.”

Boeing just have to build it.

Reply to  Michael Flynn
March 23, 2025 8:07 pm

Lets hope they do a better job than their civilian jets that have self-opening doors.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 23, 2025 5:57 am

Manned aircraft are an obsolete technology and are taking their place along with the ballista and battering rams in military history.

Tom Johnson
Reply to  DMacKenzie
March 23, 2025 6:17 am

The release said that the F-47 was designed to have a pilotless “wingman”. Obviously, the F-47 pilot could be sitting in Nebraska, though the control delay time would be important in a fighter.

Mr.
Reply to  DMacKenzie
March 23, 2025 6:54 am

I tend to agree.

Kamakazi cardboard drones can wreak destruction on enemy positions without need for concern about pilot lives or loss of aircraft.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 23, 2025 9:29 am

Trump says the generals named the aircraft, not him.

The F-46 kept wandering off course and going into nosedives. It also had serious issues with garbled comms.

DipChip
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 23, 2025 9:31 am

Yes the F-47 the younger brother of the Republic P-47 Thunder Bolt and the Boing B-47 Stratofortress

Robert Cutler
March 23, 2025 7:37 am

I’ve grown weary of always running into this plot from NASA with the statement that solar activity is decreasing so it can’t be the cause of warming.

comment image?w=1696&h=1325&fit=clip&crop=faces%2Cfocalpoint

NASA used an 11-year moving average to filter out the 11-year cycle. By increasing the filter length to 8*11, I can do that and also account for Earth’s integral-like response (due to ocean heat capacity) and the corresponding delay. Here’s my version. Same TSI data, slightly newer temperature data.

comment image

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Robert Cutler
March 23, 2025 1:35 pm

You make the common mistake of confusing the solar irradiance with solar activity. They are two different things.

Robert Cutler
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
March 23, 2025 2:35 pm

I labeled the plot following NASA’s lead. That said, I don’t believe any TSI plot and have reason to suspect that magnetic fields play a role in climate so I usually say solar activity.

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
March 23, 2025 8:14 pm

The solar irradiance is modulated by solar activity because the UV output increases about 10% during the peak of the sun spot cycle activity. While 10% isn’t a lot, UV photons carry more energy than the longer wavelengths.

Robert Cutler
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 23, 2025 10:44 pm

Sure, and that can be observed as heating in the stratosphere. I’ve also wondered how the UV might be interacting with the excess water vapor injected into the atmosphere by the HT volcano. It’s an unusual combination.

The thing is, the 11-year sunspot amplitude in not a very good proxy for solar activity, or at least not a very linear one. If you look at the GSAT spectrum, you’ll see a huge notch where I’ve marked Schwabe. It’s not that the Earth isn’t sensitive to 11-year cycles, it’s that the Sun’s output at that frequency is low relative to other frequencies. That’s why I used a multiple of 11 years in the moving average; I needed to attenuate the 11-year cycle.

comment image

Bruce Cobb
March 23, 2025 8:04 am

Cloud A to cloud B: “Surely you can’t be Cirrus.”
Cloud B: “Oh, but I am. And don’t call me Shirley”.

March 23, 2025 9:59 am

Anyone interested in discussing the merit of EPA’s limit of 3 parts per trillion of PFAs the forever chemical in drinking water?

Denis
Reply to  MIke McHenry
March 23, 2025 10:16 am

As the measurement technology is continually increasing, I am sure that a Dem administration will move it to 3 parts per quintillion at some time in the future.

Reply to  Denis
March 23, 2025 10:22 am

LNT model follows the instrumental detection limit

Reply to  MIke McHenry
March 24, 2025 8:33 am

The are a lot of “might” and “may” cause various health effects for PFAS and PFOS.

David Bowman
March 23, 2025 11:32 am

Lemons and lemonade. Maybe that crazy intermittent solar/wind power could be used in industry where it’s not such a big deal if it stops. Maybe refining aluminum. Just use it when it’s available. Keep it off the grid if not reliable.

Reply to  David Bowman
March 23, 2025 1:30 pm

Maybe refining aluminum”

No… refining aluminium requires constant reliable electricity. If there is a drop, the pots can “freeze”, and it can be very expensive to reheat, if they are not totally destroyed.

But you are totally correct about keeping most erratic and intermittent power supplies off the grid.

roaddog
Reply to  bnice2000
March 26, 2025 1:10 am

Yes, that would be disastrous.