Why are we still all here? I thought that the world faced an existential threat, resulting in imminent doom of species on the planet from CAGW for at least the past half century?
I have to say, I am impressed with the speed of the “climate” de-conditioning the Trump administration is accomplishing within the key U.S. government agencies. Wow. Buckle up. And be prepared to explain to your fellow citizens why blaming rising CO2 for the reported warming was wrong all along. And yes, of course, blaming the warming itself for bad weather, fires, etc. has been wrong from the beginning too.
Let’s hope the “climate” house of cards collapses quickly.
What to do? In my small way, I am trying to put across the key points that counter the unsound attribution to the non-condensing IR active gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) most directly, from scientific sources.
There are four short time-lapse videos here on my Youtube channel, each with a full explanation in the text description. Readers here at WUWT have seen these. I am open to suggestion for additional similar videos or posts.
This is an important time for skeptics of climate alarm to put across sound reasons to expect no effect on any trend of any metric of climate interest from the radiative effect of incremental CO2, CH4, N2O – most certainly not to any harmful extent.
(Also, please consider finding and reading the comments I’ve entered on these Open Threads at WUWT since the beginning of the year. January 5, 12, etc.)
You can see, in the time lapse vids, the heating by sunlight resulting in more cloud cover a day later. Great stuff, David. Makes your point very well that anywhere that is warm results in fairly rapid changes in convection and advection that cause the temperature anomaly to return to the mean. And the system easily responds to heat inputs much higher than CO2 forcing of 4 watts per 2xCO2.
I’m not entirely sure one can say long term CO2 increase has no long term effect, but it does show that the phenomenon we call “weather” goes a long ways to mitigating it. The kinetic energy graph is cool too…not usually an item on armchair blog reader’s radar….
Thanks for your supportive reply. Your feedback since I first posted the Band 16 images and videos has been much appreciated.
“I’m not entirely sure one can say long term CO2 increase has no long term effect…” For similar reasoning I don’t have any basis to claim a precisely “zero” response from the climate system. But it is readily apparent that it will not be possible to isolate the effect in the trends for positive attribution. And of course, if the trend turns to cooling, then it will become moot.
“And be prepared to explain to your fellow citizens why blaming rising CO2 for the reported warming was wrong all along.”
*********
David,
IMHO, the CAGW was created as a narrative to justify and promote activist agendas in global and national politics as well as drive environmental agendas (particularly in opposition to fossil fuels). The UN and world governments, and in particular western governments in the developed world, are capable of manipulating and corrupting everything they touch. Why would climate science be any different?
In climate science, CO2 was a very convenient atmospheric gas to blame for whatever warming has taken place since the end of the LIA. When a lot of govt money is involved, there are probably no shortage of scientists out there willing to play along with the CAGW narrative.
UN Secretary General Guterres is a former socialist PM of Portugal, so it is natural that he very much favors wealth redistribution from rich countries to the poor ones. CAGW is a perfect excuse to justify it, so he naturally is one of the biggest cheer leaders for the alarmism at the UN.
With the environmental movement’s opposition to fossil fuels, CAGW and CO2 as a greenhouse gas play right in their hands to justify the overregulation of fossil fuels and eventually drive them out of the picture in human (and particularly Western) civilizations. Wind turbines and solar panels are fraudulently sold to us to replace them. With the Democrats as their allies in politics and government, the enviros have the political power to do this. Now however, Trump is in power. What is going to happen to the “climate crisis” movement going forward remains to be seen.
Environmentalists are sometimes called watermelons because they are said to be green on the outside and red on the inside — in other words Marxist. So along comes something called climate justice. The “climate crisis” becomes a reason to redistribute wealth to poorer communities because they are underserved when it comes to government services. The poor are supposed to be more affected by the crisis, although I will guess that the actual evidence of greater harm from the climate is lacking.
The CAGW narrative does not have to be correct for all of this to happen when the left is in sufficient control of dissemination of information in the media and on the internet and no one in government actually puts together a program or project to sufficiently challenge the bad science of CAGW. Think Big Brother and Oceania in Orwell’s 1984.
That David is my reply to your comment above that I quoted for whatever it is worth to you.
“IMHO, the CAGW was created as a narrative to justify and promote activist agendas in global and national politics as well as drive environmental agendas (particularly in opposition to fossil fuels). ”
and of course, those official narratives are always a lie if one spends the time to actually look into them
the narrative does not have to be true. All that is needed is sufficient time, effort and control over the dissemination of information about CAGW (and the belief that it is actually happening) to have it serve its purpose.
Thanks for your reply. It is a complicated world out there, but your assessment of how the “climate” movement managed to gain so much traction seems valid. As Trump likes to say, “Let’s see what happens.”
David
You should assemble your observations into an article and submit to Charles for posting.
StephenP
February 23, 2025 4:28 am
Off topic, but I see the UK government and Apple are in conflict about Advanced Data Protection so Apple has withdrawn it for UK iPhone users, thus leaving Cloud users open to hacking (as was Jennifer Lawrence in 2014). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj54eq4vejo
A friend has had to agree with an Apple Terms and Conditions change.
How long before other Cloud providers follow suit?
The cloud automatically backs up your Apple devices, unless you specifically disconnect it/tell it not to
That turned out to be a good thing, because when my wife’s iPad would not start, not even by the GEEK Squad, all was down-loaded from the cloud via her password, and everything appeared as before
Germany, the UK, France, etc., are in Chaotic De-growth Mode
Their Euro elites are forcing populations to put up with, and pay for, tens of millions of unvetted walks-ins, who make minimal contributions, cause maximal pain, crime and chaos, all while sucking from the government tit.
Spending more on defense and Net-Zero green stuff, will be accelerating de-growth
,
The woke elites in Europe and the US are pre-maturely closing, already-paid-for, in-good-working-order nuclear plants.
The woke elites have banned 1) oil and gas fracking projects, 2) gas/oil pipelines, 3) gas/oil storage systems near power plants, and 4) new energy exploration projects, as part of “leaving it in the ground”
.
The very important results of DOGE are not reported by the leftist, USAID-subsidized, Corporate Media, but the criticisms of DOGE are reported 24/7/365.
And so, the people in New England, the US and Europe are permanently kept in the dark, already for at least 5 decades, or more.
The Social-Media, by gaining eyeballs, is quickly ending the Corporate-Media monopoly, which is losing eyeballs.
StephenP
February 23, 2025 4:28 am
Off topic, but I see the UK government and Apple are in conflict about Advanced Data Protection so Apple has withdrawn it for UK iPhone users, thus leaving Cloud users open to hacking (as was Jennifer Lawrence in 2014). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj54eq4vejo
A friend has had to agree with an Apple Terms and Conditions change.
How long before other Cloud providers follow suit?
US VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE SPEECH IN MUNICH, FEBRUARY 14, 2025; FULL TEXT https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/us-vice-president-jd-vance-speech-in-munich-february-14-2025
.
Vance’s speech in Munich was not just another rhetorical salvo. It was a milestone in the evolution of Atlanticist thought. For decades, the US/EU alliance has operated on the assumption the Cold War never truly ended.
The central question is whether to finally put an end to it and start a new era on different terms.
The current strategy of the EU is to preserve confrontation with Russia, by means of Media-enhanced Russo-phobia, as a means of securing EU unity.
If the US steps back and prioritizes its own interests elsewhere, Brussels will have to reassess that position.
I think actually the most extraordinary thing that I came across was this quote from Adolf Hitler where he told an aide once, “I’m not interested in politics. I’m interested in changing people’s lifestyles.” Well, that could be…That’s extraordinarily contemporary. That is what the modern environmental movement is all about. It’s about changing people’s lifestyles.
Thanks, very interesting as I am part of a still small German paternal family that was part of a large group that came mostly to Texas before our Civil War. I have a book on biologists, of which I am, under Hitler based on a dissertation by Ute Deichmann. Although it set them back considerably it was a fascinating account of the Jewish situation and their continuing research during WWII which was apparently competent. Unfortunately, the sciences don’t get taught with an adequate view of their (adjective?) history which still allows older important works to be ignored as was Mendel’s for so long. My major mentor thought that basic biology should be so taught, apparently still not so with libraries and the historical profession in trouble.
I see where Trump and Elon Musk have sent out an email to all Executive Branch employees, requesting that they supply information on what they accomplished last week in their job. If they don’t reply, they will be fired.
Trump is going over the Executive Branch with a fine-toothed comb in an effort to streamline operations, save money, and drain the Swamp/Deep State.
I’m betting that after the replies are read by the Trump administration, there will be a lot less bureaucrats than there were before.
Trump says: Justify your job! Tell us why we should continue to employ you.
What will the people at NASA and NOAA say? We are very good at scaring people about CO2 using bastardized temperature data and pure speculation about the weather?
Art Slartibartfast
February 23, 2025 5:01 am
I have science question someone here might be able to shine a light on. There has been much to do about averaging temperatures (an intensive property) and why, even though it is mathematically possible, the results are non-physical. In my view it would be better instead to average enthalpy (an extensive property measured in J) and then calculate the resulting average temperature from that.
Note that the whole global warming scare basically is about how higher temperatures affect our environment and atmosphere, in particular the capacity of warmer air to influence what it touches. Now the enthalpy of air depends on not only its temperature, but also on volume, pressure and humidity. So when converting back from enthalpy to temperature, it is needed to work with a standard values for these parameters to get a meaningful answer.
Now here is my question: when researching this, I find that enthalpy calculations are always done relative to 0 °C or 25 °C. Why not calculate relative to 0 K as that would give the absolute total enthalpy to work with?
Enthalpy at 0 °K is not very well defined, nor even really knowable. Most common materials will undergo numerous phase transitions on the way down to absolute zero, and at very low temperatures the specific heat capacities would change as well. It would be a very difficult, almost impossible calculation to do, and it is not necessary.
You miss the point. The entire “global warming scare” is constructed to frighten the scientifically ignorant (politicians and the general populace) who have no comprehension of climate science, much less the laws of thermodynamics. The hoaxers needed to come up with a single number (the GAT) that they could claim was a threat to the climate of the world even though it was an entirely fabricated and meaningless number that had nothing to do with the concept or description of “climate”. They could claim that even the most trivial change in this magic number was an indication of impending doom for the planet.
You’re asking why these “climate scientists” don’t use the science of thermodynamics when they don’t even study energy transport, which is the basic element of climate? Rots o’ Ruck!
El Niños, Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, and the Tropics https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-eruption . Enthalpy of Atmosphere at Various Elevations
About 5.5 million EJ/y from the sun enters the top of atmosphere, and almost as much leaves,
Some energy is retained in the atmosphere on a continuing basis
Retained energy, RE, is a net effect of the interplay of the sun, atmosphere, earth surface (land and water), and flora and fauna, i.e., all effects are accounted for, including radiation, evaporation, condensation, precipitation
WV in the TS, up to about 1.5 km, is nearly constant at 9 g/kg of dry air
WV decreases from about 2.5 g to less than 0.3 g, from 2 km to 6 km, per balloon measurements
Water at high elevation consists of ice crystals condensed on particles, i.e., minimal WV
Assume, for 2023, WV near the surface is 9 g/kg dry air (14,500 ppm) at TS = 16 C
Specific enthalpy CO2, in 2023
h = Cp CO2 x K = 0.834 x (16 + 273) = 241.2 kJ/kg CO2, where Cp CO2 is specific heat
Surface enthalpy CO2 = {(421 x 44)/(1000000 x 29) = 0.000639 kg CO2/kg dry air} x 241.2 kJ/kg CO2 @ur momisugly289 K = 0.154 kJ/kg dry air . Tropics; C ref = 0
In 2023, surface enthalpy, at T = 27 C and H = 0.017 kg WV/kg dry air (27,389 ppm)
h = 1.006 (27) + 0.017 {2501 + 1.84 (27)} = 70.524 kJ/kg dry air
RE dry air is 27.162 kJ/kg; RE WV is 43.362 kJ/kg
I think it is the Rapture vessel carrying the Global Warming Cult off to (?). The person is the young lady that segued from climate to anti-Israel activity, thus being left behind.
I think it’s supposed to be a sunrise or sunset reflected on water.
That would make the UFO a sailboat with it’s sail lowered or a floating pinwheel that has lost it’s blades. 😎
President Trump says, with regard to the Ukraine war, that the United States has contributed about $350 billion to Ukraine, for their defense, and that the other NATO nations only contributed $100 billion, even though the war is right on their front doorstep.
To top it off, the NATO contributions to Ukraine, in the amount of $100 billion was given in the form of a loan to Ukraine. So Ukraine has to repay these NATO nations.
The U.S. contribution was given as a grant, with no payback required.
Trump is now dealing with Ukraine to get repaid by being allowed to have access to Ukrainian resources with joint business ventures, as a means of recouping the money the U.S. has spent on the Ukraine war. This will benefit not only the U.S., but Ukraine, too.
I imagine Trump will give the EU Elites an earful when he comes to visit in the near future.
When Trump makes a joint appearance with Nigel Farage, Farage should get Trump started on talking about windmills. Trump will take it from there! Miliband will be curling up in his seat!
If Trump wants the UK to abandon windmills he should probably pretend to promote them as a way to avoid the dangers of fracking. Then Sir Stalin would be forced to ban windmills and open up the whole of Britain to fracking. Because Trump.
No, Trump will tell the UK Elites just how it is with windmills and solar. You know Trump, he won’t pull any punches, and he wants to promote Nigel Farage and conservatives, so he wants to hammer the liberals and their “economic’ policies which are a *very* easy target, as these (Net Zero) policies are obviously driving the UK into bankruptcy. Maybe the Elites don’t see it, but Trump will show it to the People.
Just get him talking. He’ll take it from there. And then when the liberals complain, he will double down on how stupid the UK Elites really are.
Tom, Trump pulled that figure (350 billion) out of his you know what. It is actually less than half that https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine
You should know by now that you have to check every figure Trump blurts out. He is also saying his popularity is high. It’s actually at a record low for this time, for any modern day president in US history. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-rating-slips-americans-worry-about-economy-2025-02-19/
He is also saying Ukraine started the war… they didn’t. He also called Z and dictator. He’s not. Putin on the other hand is.
And you can’t offer aid then turn around and say…. “by the way that aid we gave you, we would like payment for it now.” No it was aid not a loan. He’s like the school yard bully standing over the defenceless kid saying “I’m friends with the other big bully now, but I’ll look after you, all you need to do is give me your lunch.”
That’s extortion. I’m surprised you or any American is OK with that?
If the globalist CFR admit to $175b then that alone should give us confidence that $350b is a plausible estimate. But let’s stipulate that there haven’t been $175b in black ops and NGO giveaways. Why should the US have given $175b while the EU that don’t even live up to the pathetic 2% of GDP promise also get to make loans while we give stuff away?
Something like 70% say that Trump is doing what he promised and he has a net positive job approval rating according to realclearpolitics.com. How can he be at the lowest rating at this point in his presidency when he had never reached a net positive in his first term?
Clearly Zelensky is a dictator, having cancelled elections, imposed strict censorship, banned a religion, and killed an American citizen (Gonzalo Lira). The US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand all held general elections during WW2. The US held two federal elections including a presidential election during the Civil War. He’s illegitimate, and he’s corrupt.
Russia has been an aggressor in Georgia and Ukraine, but anyone who refuses to see any mitigating factors is just being unreasonable. The West has made bad faith promises to Russia and engaged in regime change plots. There is no reasonable basis for NATO to encircle Russia and put hostile forces directly on their borders.
Fair and credible elections in a country at war with a significant portion of territory occupied by the enemy and much of the rest not safe! You are joking? Right?
He’s not joking. He thinks holding elections in a war torn country would be easy. He does not understand that it is Ukranian law that elections cannot be held while the country is at war. Z did not make that call. He thinks Russia is justified in attacking a sovereign nation so Putin is not the dictator.
“He is also saying Ukraine started the war… they didn’t. He also called Z and dictator. He’s not. Putin on the other hand is.”
This is the first big disagreement I have with Trump.
Russia started the Ukraine war, not Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy had no option to stop the war when it just began other than completely surrendering.
Ukraine is under martial law which does not provide for elections. Zelenskyy was democratically elected the leader of Ukraine. Calling him a dictator is ridiculous.
Trump got angry because Zelenskyy said Trump was repeating Russian/Republican Isolationist rhetoric, which he was, so Trump has to lash out personally against the person who he is supposed to be bargaining with to end the war. The only person smiling about Trump’s actions are Putin and Laura Ingraham and a few of her isolationist cronies.
I think this was an unnecessary mistake on Trump’s part. There was no reason to denigrate Zelenskyy. it hurts negotiations. I note that over the weekend, Trump’s immediate advisors were asked repeatedly about this and every one of them managed to avoid answering the question. That’s because Trump’s claims about Zenlenskyy are indefensible.
If I were advising Trump, I would have told him not to do it. Millions of lives are in his hands now. He needs to keep that in mind and work very hard to end this war.
See this is why I think you are an honest man. I don’t agree with a lot of what you say, but I know you believe the points you make. Makes it easy to have an honest discussion.
I have an idea how AI technology and Virtual Reality (VR) technology could be coupled to educate youngsters just how fortunate they are to be living in the current day and age.
Use AI to put together VR tours and everyday living experiences to show what life existence was like in say 1840 just before the Industrial Revolution got going.
(That’s only what – 6 or 7 generations ago?)
“Living The Dream” it certainly wasn’t by today’s standards.
No remote-control of comfy heating & cooling, no comfy clothes, no pain relief meds, no point-to-point on-demand personal transport in a comfy, safe vehicle, no world-wide travel measured in hours rather than weeks or months, no movies, music, etc etc Need I go on?
These AI / VR experiences should be mandatory inclusions in all primary, secondary and tertiary education curricula,
A working title the youngsters might understand could be –
“Don’t Be Fooled: Humans Have Never Had Life So Good.”
Defining when the Industrial Revolution started is tricky. Was it 1709 when Abram Darby first smelted iron with coke? Or was it from around 1775 onwards when the building of canals improved transport of both raw materials and finished products and allowed industry to flourish on the grand scale?
I’d put it much earlier than 1840, probably 50 years earlier.
An interesting bit of energy history is that in the mid 1770’s the Duke of Bridgewater, who had a coal mine about five miles NW of Manchester, built a canal from the mine into the centre of the City. Instead of a bullock cart load taking two days with two men to deliver to the city a barge with a horse and two men delivered tons in a day.
The price of coal delivered to the city centre plummeted by a third, industry flourished and the population of Manchester trebled in twenty five years.
As I type, voters are going to the polls in Germany.
Who dares to make a prediction? There can be no doubt that the Shy Trump Voter syndrome would apply with Alice Weidel of the AfD. But how many murders and rapes does it take to make a German secretly vote for the AfD?
My own prediction? Die Brandmauer hält (The firewall holds). Germany will continue committing economic suicide.
“The firewall” refers to the governing coalition that will be formed in parliament after the election, not to the election itself. If either the AfD or the BSW have an unexpectedly strong showing by just a few percentage points, then it will not be possible to hold the firewall with the first two rounds of voting. The Union parties will be forced either to form a minority government or to enter a suicidal agreement with Die Linke that will see them capitulating on everything. This will be a case of the firewall holding in name only.
I predict the firewall will not hold, although that does not mean that German economic policy will change very quickly.
Germany could always just cancel the election results if the AfD wins too many votes. Just like Romania did. The ruling elites won’t give up power willingly.
I’m not sure that there’s a real distinction to be made between the election results and the eventual coalition formed, ID. Unless there’s a black and blue coalition which Merz swears will not happen, how do you imagine that the firewall won’t hold? If immigration and energy policy stay unchanged, the firewall will have held.
In any case, my prediction isn’t about the technical details of the coalition, it’s that the globalists are going to prevent sanity from returning.
AfD may have a few unsavory characters, just as probably every major party in the West has in one form or another. It’s absurd to look at the AfD manifesto and conclude that it is in any way akin to National Socialism. It looks more Adenauer than Adolf to me.
Talk about a polarized electorate! If Germany had first-past-the-post, Old West Germany would be almost exclusively black (CDU/CSU), and old East Germany would be almost exclusively blue (AfD). More than a third of a century since reunification and the East is still a different country.
Yes, nothing unexpected I’m afraid. It looks like a Black-Red coalition that will keep allowing open season on ethnic Europeans, destroying the German economy with Netzero insanity, and support fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
But a slight silver lining if Habeck and Baerbock are out of government I suppose.
Richard M
February 23, 2025 6:16 am
I find it interesting there has been no follow up to the article on greenhouse efficiency by Willis (hint). I think the term, greenhouse efficiency, may have been a little confusing. It might have been better understood if Willis had instead calculated the change in the amount of greenhouse warming seen over the CERES data collection.
I assume the number would be fairly close to the 33 C figure we hear about and that it would not be increasing. Explained with this direct temperature relationship to the defined greenhouse effect might help more people understand exactly what has remained constant.
A constant (or trivially increasing) greenhouse effect completely deflates climate alarmism. It would be a great tool for politicians.
Jeff Alberts
February 23, 2025 6:51 am
I was scrolling around Wikipedia yesterday, looking at the world’s oldest known structures. And one of them was said to be located in what is now the State of Palestine.
I says “whaa?”. Hovering over that talked about the “Israeli occupied…” I shut that shit off right there. Wikipedia has gone full Nazi.
That’s why, when I do such a search, I generally open some of the links that show up below the Wikipedia one. The only time I’ll look at a Wiki link is if it’s about something that in no way could ever be politicized. Say, for instance, if I wanted to look up the summer and winter ranges of certain song birds…
If a person does an image search for “old card catalogue” there is an analogue to be made. Some libraries were/are closed so we had to use the paper cards to start a search. Doing an adequate “review of literature” for a class assignment was a significant undertaking. The difficulties when using the internet change, but the ease and usefulness is nice.
My thoughts too, Lee. I thought that maybe ancient structures was a safe bet. I didn’t think it through.
Robert Cutler
February 23, 2025 7:14 am
I was playing around with Elon’s improved AI Grock3. It’s free for the moment. I had first ask it to find research papers on a certain topic. I then simply asked it to write a python program to reproduce a figure in one of the papers. I described the sunspot data source as being in a csv file. It only took a few iterations, and I had to correct a small error, which I fed back. The program had a placeholder for reading the csv file, and a reasonable fake sunspot data generator — I hadn’t asked for that. Here’s the final result.
I was having a conversation with Grok3 as well yesterday. Nothing as useful as yours, but I noticed a more conversational tone than other AIs. It also ended every answer with a question, intended to continue the thread. Sometimes I bit, other times I didn’t. But it was interesting.
Approximately 40 gigatons of CO2 is added yearly. If I did my sums correctly that extra mass requires about 34 exajoules of energy to increase 1 C. Where will it come from?
That increased mass affects the PV= nRT relationship.
The Cp of air changed. How much? What direction? Effect on lapse rate?
At the MLO Hawaii, the concentration of CO2 in dry air is 425 ppmv. One cubic meter of this air contains 0.839 g of CO2. There is little CO2 in air is because most of it is absorbed by the oceans. The pH of the oceans is ca. 8.2. A portion of the CO2 is converted bicarbonate anion. A large portion of the CO2 is fixed by plants ranging from alga to sea weeds and kelp.
We really do not have to worry too much about CO2.
Where will the 34 EJ come from ? The solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface in just one year, approximately 3 400 000 EJ, so the sun can provide that in about 5 minutes….
Russell Cook
February 23, 2025 7:56 am
The somewhat minor but still entertaining good news is that the pair of Annapolis and Anne Arundel County v. BP lawsuits in Maryland were dismissed last month, and the Platkin v Exxon lawsuit in New Jersey was dismissed this month. However, what got them dismissed was the decision that ‘climate lawfare’ belongs in Federal court, it isn’t a state matter. As I continue to detail at GelbspanFiles, the defendants need to grow a spine and file Motions to Dismiss based on the fact that the core ‘evidence’ in these lawsuits of the industry running ‘disinformation campaigns’ is provably worthless, and that worthless evidence is traceable to just a tiny core clique of enviros who’ve promulgated the accusation for nearly three decades. My Feb 17 blog post showed how a straight line can be drawn from alarmist book author Ross Gelbspan’s particular accusation in his 1997 tirade through the 2017 pair of California lawsuits suing BP which regurgitate the accusation, and into to the months-old Nov 2024 Maine v BP lawsuit, which quite literally plagiarized its accusation out of the two 2017 lawsuits. Please see: “The Problems in the ExxonKnew Lawsuits Keep Getting Worse“
mikewaite
February 23, 2025 8:43 am
What , if anything , should be read into the observation from the ENSOmeter page that the meter in just a few days has risen from -1 to -0.5 .? Is la Nina , brief and mild, now over? Any discussion here on the effects of la Nina / El Nino concentrate, quite understandably, on the implications for California weather . But are we in the UK isolated from ENSO changes?
Mike,
You might find the info at this site interesting, although it is meant for the State of Oregon. https://www.oregon.gov/oda/natural-resources/Documents/Weather/forecast.pdf
Because the atmosphere flowing over North America eventually reaches the UK, one might guess the changes will be seen there.
I suspect articles have been written about this.
John
Thank you for the link. It seems that NOAA were expecting a weak La Nina and that it would turn around from March , which seems to be happening, albeit a few days early (due to climate change of course (tongue in cheek)). . .
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is a well-established basis used for defining El Niño/La Niña events, where it reflects the rolling three-month average of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the figure below, I show the measured SST values themselves (not the anomalies) since 1995, which is quite informative in my opinion. The plot also shows the 30-year average SST values, which are used to compute the anomaly values (i.e. the difference between the red and blue curves).
One very clear observation is that once the anomaly value goes negative (red curve goes below blue curve), regardless of how strong the La Niña event gets, the minimum monthly SST value is invariably reached by January for the period since 1995. In fact, since 1950, it seems that the minimum SST value while in La Niña territory has only occurred as late as February twice (1968 and 1981). This year could well be the same.
Lee Riffee
February 23, 2025 9:03 am
Most everyone knows about California and the self inflicted problems they are having with power generation and keeping the lights on. Well, there are other states who had also adopted such suicidal green energy policies, and in my home state the chickens have finally come home to roost. Here in Maryland (which, governance wise, is Mini-Me to California’s Dr. Evil) at the beginning of the year most everyone got a really nasty surprise when they went to pay their electric bill. Some people’s bills almost doubled, and most saw a significant increase. Mine was around $130 a month and now it’s close to $200. And boy have people raised a huge stink, unsurprisingly. Even those who essentially voted for it.
It’s gotten so bad that the local news media is covering it, and what few reasonably minded politicians (meaning mostly those who aren’t Dems) we have here are also speaking up. Of course, the few Dems that are speaking up have gone after BGE (the dominant utility of the region) instead of attacking state policies that have forced such utilities to try and make do with less generation. They want to pass some law that would make the utility just magically lower its rates (without doing anything to bolster reliable generation). The few Republicans here have pointed out the real cause – Maryland’s green policies where many coal and some gas power plants have been closed and nothing else has been added (save for near-worthless solar and a smattering of wind). Only 7 percent of this state’s power is generated by such sources. And from all sources within the state can generate only about 40% of the necessary power. The rest must be imported. What we have here is a mini-California in a nutshell. The same problems caused by the same people for the same reasons.
I am hoping Trump’s efforts can turn at least some of this around, not just here and in CA but everywhere that the powers that be have embraced energy and financial suicide.
Trump’s Master Plan: How Russia Lost Everything | George Friedman
If you feel like the world order is being rearranged, you’re right. It is, and quickly. Settlement discussions about Ukraine began this week in Saudi Arabia—without Ukraine. Renowned forecaster George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, helps us break down these important signals. The US no longer has an interest in prolonging or funding this war. We are seeking to force a settlement. This has put in motion what looks like a game of 3D chess. For starters, the US is seeking guaranteed access to rare earth minerals from Ukraine, reducing dependence on China. Will the US ease pressure on Russia in exchange for this access? It looks that way. As George says in our interview, “The neutrality of Ukraine is guaranteed if the Americans get what they want… the minerals.” George and I take a deep dive into the geopolitical machinations behind the Ukraine settlement talks. You’ll hear why settlement negotiations happened in Saudi Arabia, why NATO has a limited role to play, why China is wooing an ancient enemy, and President Trump’s plan to “redesign the world.”
Perhaps Trump’s Ukraine strategy ain’t what it looks like- that he’s really trying to outsmart Putin? I found this discussion to be interesting.
My take on the Trump – Zelensky – Putin imbroglio –
1) Trump has been clear that he believes that the USA has no obligations to get involved in
European stoushes;
2) He doesn’t ever care if what he says about or to people offends anyone;
3) Maybe he’d be quite happy if his goading of Zelensky results in Z telling Trump to piss off and
take his military support with him (which would deliver to Trump exactly what he actually wants);
4) As part of this bizarre plan, Trump is not going to rile up any confrontation with Putin’s Russia,
because point #1.
sherro01
February 23, 2025 1:30 pm
Please excuse a repeat post from another thread. Made it too late, few readers).
A review of the published Australian reps for IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM. Six males, one female. Pep Canadell (Australia). CSIRO. Birth place unstated, possibly Spain. Published 18 times in year 2024 alone. How can a person publish at this pace and maintain scientific credibility? Malte Meinshausen (Australia/Germany). Uni of Melbourne, after the radical Potsdam Institute 2006-2011. Birth place unstated, possibly Germany or Switzerland. Roshanka Ranasinghe (The Netherlands/Sri Lanka/Australia). Now at Twente, Holland. First degree Sri Lanka. Birth place not stated, possibly Sri Lanka. Blair Trewin (Australia). Possibly born in Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, major player in ACORN-SAT adjusted Australian temperatures. Alejandro Di Luca (Australia/Canada/Argentina). Currently works in Canada. Uni NSW 2017-2020. Birth place unstated, possibly Argentina. Pandora Hope (Australia). Bureau of Meteorology. 2005 PhD Uni Melbourne. Possibly Australian born. Mark Howden (Australia). Australian National Uni. “ roles in the Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth and now Seventh Assessment Reports, sharing the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with other IPCC participants and Al Gore.” Possibly Australian born. Needs to learn Trump orders. ………. The phrase “Birth place unstated” means no hits from a 5-minute Google search. It could be incomplete. If so I will correct with apologies. For myself, I was born at Oakey, Queensland in June 1941. My father, an officer in the Royal Australian Air Force, had several wartime postings involving our relocation in Australia. He was posted to New Guinea without family from about 1942 to late 1945. I can trace my ancestry back for 4 earlier Australian generations. My love of my country and my desire to help improve it by practical, wealth generating scientific applications might well be much greater than that of several of the above academics. Why do they consider that they are qualified to represent Australia? Their published views are not at all compatible with mine. Who selected them to represent Australia, anyone know? ….
How do folk from other countries feel about how they are represented by these unelected people?
Why are we still all here? I thought that the world faced an existential threat, resulting in imminent doom of species on the planet from CAGW for at least the past half century?
We are here to get the inside story about human-caused climate change.
At this point, we are here to watch the dissolution of the effort to rein in CO2.
Exactly right, I had an autopsy penned in for today.
I have to say, I am impressed with the speed of the “climate” de-conditioning the Trump administration is accomplishing within the key U.S. government agencies. Wow. Buckle up. And be prepared to explain to your fellow citizens why blaming rising CO2 for the reported warming was wrong all along. And yes, of course, blaming the warming itself for bad weather, fires, etc. has been wrong from the beginning too.
Let’s hope the “climate” house of cards collapses quickly.
What to do? In my small way, I am trying to put across the key points that counter the unsound attribution to the non-condensing IR active gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) most directly, from scientific sources.
There are four short time-lapse videos here on my Youtube channel, each with a full explanation in the text description. Readers here at WUWT have seen these. I am open to suggestion for additional similar videos or posts.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI8vhRIT-3uaLhuaIZq2FuQ
Also on X here. https://x.com/DavidDibbell
This is an important time for skeptics of climate alarm to put across sound reasons to expect no effect on any trend of any metric of climate interest from the radiative effect of incremental CO2, CH4, N2O – most certainly not to any harmful extent.
(Also, please consider finding and reading the comments I’ve entered on these Open Threads at WUWT since the beginning of the year. January 5, 12, etc.)
You can see, in the time lapse vids, the heating by sunlight resulting in more cloud cover a day later. Great stuff, David. Makes your point very well that anywhere that is warm results in fairly rapid changes in convection and advection that cause the temperature anomaly to return to the mean. And the system easily responds to heat inputs much higher than CO2 forcing of 4 watts per 2xCO2.
I’m not entirely sure one can say long term CO2 increase has no long term effect, but it does show that the phenomenon we call “weather” goes a long ways to mitigating it. The kinetic energy graph is cool too…not usually an item on armchair blog reader’s radar….
Thanks for your supportive reply. Your feedback since I first posted the Band 16 images and videos has been much appreciated.
“I’m not entirely sure one can say long term CO2 increase has no long term effect…” For similar reasoning I don’t have any basis to claim a precisely “zero” response from the climate system. But it is readily apparent that it will not be possible to isolate the effect in the trends for positive attribution. And of course, if the trend turns to cooling, then it will become moot.
Slowly, slowly, we get a better picture.
The Climate Science is not settled.
“And be prepared to explain to your fellow citizens why blaming rising CO2 for the reported warming was wrong all along.”
*********
David,
IMHO, the CAGW was created as a narrative to justify and promote activist agendas in global and national politics as well as drive environmental agendas (particularly in opposition to fossil fuels). The UN and world governments, and in particular western governments in the developed world, are capable of manipulating and corrupting everything they touch. Why would climate science be any different?
In climate science, CO2 was a very convenient atmospheric gas to blame for whatever warming has taken place since the end of the LIA. When a lot of govt money is involved, there are probably no shortage of scientists out there willing to play along with the CAGW narrative.
UN Secretary General Guterres is a former socialist PM of Portugal, so it is natural that he very much favors wealth redistribution from rich countries to the poor ones. CAGW is a perfect excuse to justify it, so he naturally is one of the biggest cheer leaders for the alarmism at the UN.
With the environmental movement’s opposition to fossil fuels, CAGW and CO2 as a greenhouse gas play right in their hands to justify the overregulation of fossil fuels and eventually drive them out of the picture in human (and particularly Western) civilizations. Wind turbines and solar panels are fraudulently sold to us to replace them. With the Democrats as their allies in politics and government, the enviros have the political power to do this. Now however, Trump is in power. What is going to happen to the “climate crisis” movement going forward remains to be seen.
Environmentalists are sometimes called watermelons because they are said to be green on the outside and red on the inside — in other words Marxist. So along comes something called climate justice. The “climate crisis” becomes a reason to redistribute wealth to poorer communities because they are underserved when it comes to government services. The poor are supposed to be more affected by the crisis, although I will guess that the actual evidence of greater harm from the climate is lacking.
The CAGW narrative does not have to be correct for all of this to happen when the left is in sufficient control of dissemination of information in the media and on the internet and no one in government actually puts together a program or project to sufficiently challenge the bad science of CAGW. Think Big Brother and Oceania in Orwell’s 1984.
That David is my reply to your comment above that I quoted for whatever it is worth to you.
“IMHO, the CAGW was created as a narrative to justify and promote activist agendas in global and national politics as well as drive environmental agendas (particularly in opposition to fossil fuels). ”
and of course, those official narratives are always a lie if one spends the time to actually look into them
As I said jvcstone,
the narrative does not have to be true. All that is needed is sufficient time, effort and control over the dissemination of information about CAGW (and the belief that it is actually happening) to have it serve its purpose.
Thanks for your reply. It is a complicated world out there, but your assessment of how the “climate” movement managed to gain so much traction seems valid. As Trump likes to say, “Let’s see what happens.”
David
You should assemble your observations into an article and submit to Charles for posting.
Off topic, but I see the UK government and Apple are in conflict about Advanced Data Protection so Apple has withdrawn it for UK iPhone users, thus leaving Cloud users open to hacking (as was Jennifer Lawrence in 2014).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj54eq4vejo
A friend has had to agree with an Apple Terms and Conditions change.
How long before other Cloud providers follow suit?
I don’t use cloud storage.
Me neither – I use a 1 Terrabyte portable, plug-in HDD which is only connected to my computer when I’m actually backing-up.
The cloud automatically backs up your Apple devices, unless you specifically disconnect it/tell it not to
That turned out to be a good thing, because when my wife’s iPad would not start, not even by the GEEK Squad, all was down-loaded from the cloud via her password, and everything appeared as before
WOW, what a relief
Germany, the UK, France, etc., are in Chaotic De-growth Mode
Their Euro elites are forcing populations to put up with, and pay for, tens of millions of unvetted walks-ins, who make minimal contributions, cause maximal pain, crime and chaos, all while sucking from the government tit.
Spending more on defense and Net-Zero green stuff, will be accelerating de-growth
,
The woke elites in Europe and the US are pre-maturely closing, already-paid-for, in-good-working-order nuclear plants.
The woke elites have banned 1) oil and gas fracking projects, 2) gas/oil pipelines, 3) gas/oil storage systems near power plants, and 4) new energy exploration projects, as part of “leaving it in the ground”
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The very important results of DOGE are not reported by the leftist, USAID-subsidized, Corporate Media, but the criticisms of DOGE are reported 24/7/365.
And so, the people in New England, the US and Europe are permanently kept in the dark, already for at least 5 decades, or more.
The Social-Media, by gaining eyeballs, is quickly ending the Corporate-Media monopoly, which is losing eyeballs.
Off topic, but I see the UK government and Apple are in conflict about Advanced Data Protection so Apple has withdrawn it for UK iPhone users, thus leaving Cloud users open to hacking (as was Jennifer Lawrence in 2014).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj54eq4vejo
A friend has had to agree with an Apple Terms and Conditions change.
How long before other Cloud providers follow suit?
It’s an Open Thread, so it’s not off-topic.
When Trump travels to Europe, I’m sure he is going to raise the free speech issues and the censorship issues. So stayed tuned! 🙂
US VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE SPEECH IN MUNICH, FEBRUARY 14, 2025; FULL TEXT
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/us-vice-president-jd-vance-speech-in-munich-february-14-2025
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Vance’s speech in Munich was not just another rhetorical salvo. It was a milestone in the evolution of Atlanticist thought. For decades, the US/EU alliance has operated on the assumption the Cold War never truly ended.
The central question is whether to finally put an end to it and start a new era on different terms.
The current strategy of the EU is to preserve confrontation with Russia, by means of Media-enhanced Russo-phobia, as a means of securing EU unity.
If the US steps back and prioritizes its own interests elsewhere, Brussels will have to reassess that position.
I think actually the most extraordinary thing that I came across was this quote from Adolf Hitler where he told an aide once, “I’m not interested in politics. I’m interested in changing people’s lifestyles.” Well, that could be…That’s extraordinarily contemporary. That is what the modern environmental movement is all about. It’s about changing people’s lifestyles.
https://www.encounterbooks.com/features/rupert-darwall-totalitarian-roots-environmentalism/
Thanks, very interesting as I am part of a still small German paternal family that was part of a large group that came mostly to Texas before our Civil War. I have a book on biologists, of which I am, under Hitler based on a dissertation by Ute Deichmann. Although it set them back considerably it was a fascinating account of the Jewish situation and their continuing research during WWII which was apparently competent. Unfortunately, the sciences don’t get taught with an adequate view of their (adjective?) history which still allows older important works to be ignored as was Mendel’s for so long. My major mentor thought that basic biology should be so taught, apparently still not so with libraries and the historical profession in trouble.
“Politics’ is always about changing peoples lifestyles. Politics is the most powerful way to do that.
I see where Trump and Elon Musk have sent out an email to all Executive Branch employees, requesting that they supply information on what they accomplished last week in their job. If they don’t reply, they will be fired.
Trump is going over the Executive Branch with a fine-toothed comb in an effort to streamline operations, save money, and drain the Swamp/Deep State.
Remember “shock and awe”? It’s like that.
I don’t wonder if their emails will read like their resumes: Lots of meaningless bullet points about nothing.
We’re not electing a president.
So how many bureaucrats will be needed to read and act on their reply?
I’m betting that after the replies are read by the Trump administration, there will be a lot less bureaucrats than there were before.
Trump says: Justify your job! Tell us why we should continue to employ you.
What will the people at NASA and NOAA say? We are very good at scaring people about CO2 using bastardized temperature data and pure speculation about the weather?
I have science question someone here might be able to shine a light on. There has been much to do about averaging temperatures (an intensive property) and why, even though it is mathematically possible, the results are non-physical. In my view it would be better instead to average enthalpy (an extensive property measured in J) and then calculate the resulting average temperature from that.
Note that the whole global warming scare basically is about how higher temperatures affect our environment and atmosphere, in particular the capacity of warmer air to influence what it touches. Now the enthalpy of air depends on not only its temperature, but also on volume, pressure and humidity. So when converting back from enthalpy to temperature, it is needed to work with a standard values for these parameters to get a meaningful answer.
Now here is my question: when researching this, I find that enthalpy calculations are always done relative to 0 °C or 25 °C. Why not calculate relative to 0 K as that would give the absolute total enthalpy to work with?
Enthalpy at 0 °K is not very well defined, nor even really knowable. Most common materials will undergo numerous phase transitions on the way down to absolute zero, and at very low temperatures the specific heat capacities would change as well. It would be a very difficult, almost impossible calculation to do, and it is not necessary.
Thanks for the explanation, good to know.
You miss the point. The entire “global warming scare” is constructed to frighten the scientifically ignorant (politicians and the general populace) who have no comprehension of climate science, much less the laws of thermodynamics. The hoaxers needed to come up with a single number (the GAT) that they could claim was a threat to the climate of the world even though it was an entirely fabricated and meaningless number that had nothing to do with the concept or description of “climate”. They could claim that even the most trivial change in this magic number was an indication of impending doom for the planet.
You’re asking why these “climate scientists” don’t use the science of thermodynamics when they don’t even study energy transport, which is the basic element of climate? Rots o’ Ruck!
El Niños, Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, and the Tropics
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-eruption
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Enthalpy of Atmosphere at Various Elevations
About 5.5 million EJ/y from the sun enters the top of atmosphere, and almost as much leaves,
Some energy is retained in the atmosphere on a continuing basis
Retained energy, RE, is a net effect of the interplay of the sun, atmosphere, earth surface (land and water), and flora and fauna, i.e., all effects are accounted for, including radiation, evaporation, condensation, precipitation
WV in the TS, up to about 1.5 km, is nearly constant at 9 g/kg of dry air
WV decreases from about 2.5 g to less than 0.3 g, from 2 km to 6 km, per balloon measurements
Water at high elevation consists of ice crystals condensed on particles, i.e., minimal WV
Assume, for 2023, WV near the surface is 9 g/kg dry air (14,500 ppm) at TS = 16 C
Table 1 shows the enthalpy of a one-m layer at various elevations
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https://www.pdas.com/atmosTable2SI.html
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/water-vapor-d_979.html
https://aerospaceweb.org/design/scripts/atmosphere/
https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/books/Practical_Meteorology/prmet102/Ch03-thermo-v102b.pdf
https://www.cambridge.org/us/files/9513/6697/5546/Appendix_E.pdf
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/carbon-dioxide-d_974.html
.
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NOTE: This short video shows, CO2 plays no detectable RE role in the world’s driest places, with 421 ppm CO2 and minimal WV ppm
https://youtu.be/QCO7x6W61wc
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Specific enthalpy of Dry Air and Water Vapor; C ref = 0
ha = Cpa x T = 1006 kJ/kg.C x T, where Cpa is specific heat dry air
hg = (2501 kJ/kg, specific enthalpy WV at 0 C) + (Cpwv x T = 1.84 kJ/kg x T), where Cpwv is specific heat WV at constant pressure
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1a) In 1900, near the surface, at T = 14.8 C and H = 0.008244 kg WV/kg dry air (13,282 ppm)
h = ha + H.hg = 1.006T + H(2501 + 1.84T) = 1.006 (14.8) + 0.008306 {2501 + 1.84 (14.8)} = 35.886 kJ/kg dry air
RE dry air is 14.889 kJ/kg; RE WV is 20.997 kJ/kg
1b) In 2023, near the surface, at T = 16 C and H = 0.009 kg WV/kg dry air (14,500 ppm)
1.006 (16) + 0.009 {2501 + 1.84 (16)} = 38.870 kJ/kg dry air
RE dry air is 16.096 kJ/kg; RE WV is 22.774 kJ/kg
https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Enthalpy-of-Moist-Air#:~:text=The%20equation%20for%20enthalpy%20is,specific%20enthalpy%20of%20water%20vapor.
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Specific enthalpy CO2, in 1900; K ref = 0
h = Cp CO2 x K = 0.833 x (14.8 + 273) = 239.8 kJ/kg CO2, where Cp CO2 is specific heat
Surface enthalpy CO2 = {(296 x 44)/(1000000 x 29) = 0.000449 kg CO2/kg dry air} x 239.8 kJ/kg CO2 @ur momisugly 287.8 K = 0.108 kJ/kg dry air
Specific enthalpy CO2, in 2023
h = Cp CO2 x K = 0.834 x (16 + 273) = 241.2 kJ/kg CO2, where Cp CO2 is specific heat
Surface enthalpy CO2 = {(421 x 44)/(1000000 x 29) = 0.000639 kg CO2/kg dry air} x 241.2 kJ/kg CO2 @ur momisugly 289 K = 0.154 kJ/kg dry air
.
Tropics; C ref = 0
In 2023, surface enthalpy, at T = 27 C and H = 0.017 kg WV/kg dry air (27,389 ppm)
h = 1.006 (27) + 0.017 {2501 + 1.84 (27)} = 70.524 kJ/kg dry air
RE dry air is 27.162 kJ/kg; RE WV is 43.362 kJ/kg
“About 5.5 million EJ/y from the sun enters the top of atmosphere, and almost as much leaves”
No, during the night, all the heat of the day is lost to space, plus a little of the Earth’s internal heat.
That’s why the Earth’s surface is no longer molten.
Have you a better explanation?
The painting a the top- AI generated I presume. What’s that thing floating in space? A sub? A UFO?
17th hole at St. Andrews.
Ah! That’ll be after the flooding caused by climate change…
I think it is the Rapture vessel carrying the Global Warming Cult off to (?). The person is the young lady that segued from climate to anti-Israel activity, thus being left behind.
I think I’ll have to start playing around with AI.
I think it’s supposed to be a sunrise or sunset reflected on water.
That would make the UFO a sailboat with it’s sail lowered or a floating pinwheel that has lost it’s blades. 😎
President Trump says, with regard to the Ukraine war, that the United States has contributed about $350 billion to Ukraine, for their defense, and that the other NATO nations only contributed $100 billion, even though the war is right on their front doorstep.
To top it off, the NATO contributions to Ukraine, in the amount of $100 billion was given in the form of a loan to Ukraine. So Ukraine has to repay these NATO nations.
The U.S. contribution was given as a grant, with no payback required.
Trump is now dealing with Ukraine to get repaid by being allowed to have access to Ukrainian resources with joint business ventures, as a means of recouping the money the U.S. has spent on the Ukraine war. This will benefit not only the U.S., but Ukraine, too.
I imagine Trump will give the EU Elites an earful when he comes to visit in the near future.
When Trump makes a joint appearance with Nigel Farage, Farage should get Trump started on talking about windmills. Trump will take it from there! Miliband will be curling up in his seat!
Trump detests windmills!
I am not sure that it will work like that.
If Trump wants the UK to abandon windmills he should probably pretend to promote them as a way to avoid the dangers of fracking. Then Sir Stalin would be forced to ban windmills and open up the whole of Britain to fracking. Because Trump.
Trump isn’t that subtle. 🙂
No, Trump will tell the UK Elites just how it is with windmills and solar. You know Trump, he won’t pull any punches, and he wants to promote Nigel Farage and conservatives, so he wants to hammer the liberals and their “economic’ policies which are a *very* easy target, as these (Net Zero) policies are obviously driving the UK into bankruptcy. Maybe the Elites don’t see it, but Trump will show it to the People.
Just get him talking. He’ll take it from there. And then when the liberals complain, he will double down on how stupid the UK Elites really are.
He no doubt sees windmills as a waste of good real estate.
Which they are.
Solar panels too!
“The U.S. contribution was given as a grant, with no payback required.”
Trump just converted the grant to a loan. What a shrewd businessman!
Tom, Trump pulled that figure (350 billion) out of his you know what. It is actually less than half that https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine
You should know by now that you have to check every figure Trump blurts out. He is also saying his popularity is high. It’s actually at a record low for this time, for any modern day president in US history.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-rating-slips-americans-worry-about-economy-2025-02-19/
He is also saying Ukraine started the war… they didn’t. He also called Z and dictator. He’s not. Putin on the other hand is.
And you can’t offer aid then turn around and say…. “by the way that aid we gave you, we would like payment for it now.” No it was aid not a loan. He’s like the school yard bully standing over the defenceless kid saying “I’m friends with the other big bully now, but I’ll look after you, all you need to do is give me your lunch.”
That’s extortion. I’m surprised you or any American is OK with that?
Oh Simon, your typical extreme opinions, yawn.
If the globalist CFR admit to $175b then that alone should give us confidence that $350b is a plausible estimate. But let’s stipulate that there haven’t been $175b in black ops and NGO giveaways. Why should the US have given $175b while the EU that don’t even live up to the pathetic 2% of GDP promise also get to make loans while we give stuff away?
Something like 70% say that Trump is doing what he promised and he has a net positive job approval rating according to realclearpolitics.com. How can he be at the lowest rating at this point in his presidency when he had never reached a net positive in his first term?
Clearly Zelensky is a dictator, having cancelled elections, imposed strict censorship, banned a religion, and killed an American citizen (Gonzalo Lira). The US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand all held general elections during WW2. The US held two federal elections including a presidential election during the Civil War. He’s illegitimate, and he’s corrupt.
Russia has been an aggressor in Georgia and Ukraine, but anyone who refuses to see any mitigating factors is just being unreasonable. The West has made bad faith promises to Russia and engaged in regime change plots. There is no reasonable basis for NATO to encircle Russia and put hostile forces directly on their borders.
Fair and credible elections in a country at war with a significant portion of territory occupied by the enemy and much of the rest not safe! You are joking? Right?
He’s not joking. He thinks holding elections in a war torn country would be easy. He does not understand that it is Ukranian law that elections cannot be held while the country is at war. Z did not make that call. He thinks Russia is justified in attacking a sovereign nation so Putin is not the dictator.
“Something like 70% say that Trump is doing what he promised and he has a net positive job approval rating according to realclearpolitics.com. “
Nope According to RCP Trump is negative -.8
https://realclearpolitics.com./epolls/other/other/FavorabilityRatingsPoliticalLeaders.html
“He is also saying Ukraine started the war… they didn’t. He also called Z and dictator. He’s not. Putin on the other hand is.”
This is the first big disagreement I have with Trump.
Russia started the Ukraine war, not Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy had no option to stop the war when it just began other than completely surrendering.
Ukraine is under martial law which does not provide for elections. Zelenskyy was democratically elected the leader of Ukraine. Calling him a dictator is ridiculous.
Trump got angry because Zelenskyy said Trump was repeating Russian/Republican Isolationist rhetoric, which he was, so Trump has to lash out personally against the person who he is supposed to be bargaining with to end the war. The only person smiling about Trump’s actions are Putin and Laura Ingraham and a few of her isolationist cronies.
I think this was an unnecessary mistake on Trump’s part. There was no reason to denigrate Zelenskyy. it hurts negotiations. I note that over the weekend, Trump’s immediate advisors were asked repeatedly about this and every one of them managed to avoid answering the question. That’s because Trump’s claims about Zenlenskyy are indefensible.
If I were advising Trump, I would have told him not to do it. Millions of lives are in his hands now. He needs to keep that in mind and work very hard to end this war.
See this is why I think you are an honest man. I don’t agree with a lot of what you say, but I know you believe the points you make. Makes it easy to have an honest discussion.
being allowed to have access to Ukrainian resources with joint business ventures
If he does not provide Ukraine with a security guarantee, who would be his business partner?
Some people seem to think that if American businesses are located in Ukraine, that this would deter future invasions.
I imagine it would give a dictator something to think about.
I have an idea how AI technology and Virtual Reality (VR) technology could be coupled to educate youngsters just how fortunate they are to be living in the current day and age.
Use AI to put together VR tours and everyday living experiences to show what
lifeexistence was like in say 1840 just before the Industrial Revolution got going.(That’s only what – 6 or 7 generations ago?)
“Living The Dream” it certainly wasn’t by today’s standards.
No remote-control of comfy heating & cooling, no comfy clothes, no pain relief meds, no point-to-point on-demand personal transport in a comfy, safe vehicle, no world-wide travel measured in hours rather than weeks or months, no movies, music, etc etc Need I go on?
These AI / VR experiences should be mandatory inclusions in all primary, secondary and tertiary education curricula,
A working title the youngsters might understand could be –
“Don’t Be Fooled: Humans Have Never Had Life So Good.”
Defining when the Industrial Revolution started is tricky. Was it 1709 when Abram Darby first smelted iron with coke? Or was it from around 1775 onwards when the building of canals improved transport of both raw materials and finished products and allowed industry to flourish on the grand scale?
I’d put it much earlier than 1840, probably 50 years earlier.
Probably won’t be noticed by today’s kids.
For them, any year starting with a 1 in front of it is all ancient history, before civilization began.
I would argue any year starting with a 1 OR a 20
An interesting bit of energy history is that in the mid 1770’s the Duke of Bridgewater, who had a coal mine about five miles NW of Manchester, built a canal from the mine into the centre of the City. Instead of a bullock cart load taking two days with two men to deliver to the city a barge with a horse and two men delivered tons in a day.
The price of coal delivered to the city centre plummeted by a third, industry flourished and the population of Manchester trebled in twenty five years.
They may yet want to re-open that mine.
As I type, voters are going to the polls in Germany.
Who dares to make a prediction? There can be no doubt that the Shy Trump Voter syndrome would apply with Alice Weidel of the AfD. But how many murders and rapes does it take to make a German secretly vote for the AfD?
My own prediction? Die Brandmauer hält (The firewall holds). Germany will continue committing economic suicide.
“The firewall” refers to the governing coalition that will be formed in parliament after the election, not to the election itself. If either the AfD or the BSW have an unexpectedly strong showing by just a few percentage points, then it will not be possible to hold the firewall with the first two rounds of voting. The Union parties will be forced either to form a minority government or to enter a suicidal agreement with Die Linke that will see them capitulating on everything. This will be a case of the firewall holding in name only.
I predict the firewall will not hold, although that does not mean that German economic policy will change very quickly.
Germany could always just cancel the election results if the AfD wins too many votes. Just like Romania did. The ruling elites won’t give up power willingly.
Many Germans in foreign countries are not able to vote, postal delays etc, so maybe, the elections will be canceld, let’s see what will come…
I’m not sure that there’s a real distinction to be made between the election results and the eventual coalition formed, ID. Unless there’s a black and blue coalition which Merz swears will not happen, how do you imagine that the firewall won’t hold? If immigration and energy policy stay unchanged, the firewall will have held.
In any case, my prediction isn’t about the technical details of the coalition, it’s that the globalists are going to prevent sanity from returning.
AfD may have a few unsavory characters, just as probably every major party in the West has in one form or another. It’s absurd to look at the AfD manifesto and conclude that it is in any way akin to National Socialism. It looks more Adenauer than Adolf to me.
Trump and Vance will regulate that 😀
What will they regulate?
The “Firewall Policy”
I still don’t get your meaning KG. Do you mean that Trump is going to force a shotgun wedding between Merz and Weidel?
Talk about a polarized electorate! If Germany had first-past-the-post, Old West Germany would be almost exclusively black (CDU/CSU), and old East Germany would be almost exclusively blue (AfD). More than a third of a century since reunification and the East is still a different country.
Breaking: Germany’s CDU Wins Elections, Populist Conservative AfD Party Roars into Second Place with Strongest Showing in Decades – But CDU Will Likely Pick Social Democrats SPD to Form Coalition and Ignore AfD
Yes, nothing unexpected I’m afraid. It looks like a Black-Red coalition that will keep allowing open season on ethnic Europeans, destroying the German economy with Netzero insanity, and support fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
But a slight silver lining if Habeck and Baerbock are out of government I suppose.
I find it interesting there has been no follow up to the article on greenhouse efficiency by Willis (hint). I think the term, greenhouse efficiency, may have been a little confusing. It might have been better understood if Willis had instead calculated the change in the amount of greenhouse warming seen over the CERES data collection.
I assume the number would be fairly close to the 33 C figure we hear about and that it would not be increasing. Explained with this direct temperature relationship to the defined greenhouse effect might help more people understand exactly what has remained constant.
A constant (or trivially increasing) greenhouse effect completely deflates climate alarmism. It would be a great tool for politicians.
I was scrolling around Wikipedia yesterday, looking at the world’s oldest known structures. And one of them was said to be located in what is now the State of Palestine.
I says “whaa?”. Hovering over that talked about the “Israeli occupied…” I shut that shit off right there. Wikipedia has gone full Nazi.
That’s why, when I do such a search, I generally open some of the links that show up below the Wikipedia one. The only time I’ll look at a Wiki link is if it’s about something that in no way could ever be politicized. Say, for instance, if I wanted to look up the summer and winter ranges of certain song birds…
If a person does an image search for “old card catalogue” there is an analogue to be made. Some libraries were/are closed so we had to use the paper cards to start a search. Doing an adequate “review of literature” for a class assignment was a significant undertaking. The difficulties when using the internet change, but the ease and usefulness is nice.
My thoughts too, Lee. I thought that maybe ancient structures was a safe bet. I didn’t think it through.
I was playing around with Elon’s improved AI Grock3. It’s free for the moment. I had first ask it to find research papers on a certain topic. I then simply asked it to write a python program to reproduce a figure in one of the papers. I described the sunspot data source as being in a csv file. It only took a few iterations, and I had to correct a small error, which I fed back. The program had a placeholder for reading the csv file, and a reasonable fake sunspot data generator — I hadn’t asked for that. Here’s the final result.
Interesting.
I was having a conversation with Grok3 as well yesterday. Nothing as useful as yours, but I noticed a more conversational tone than other AIs. It also ended every answer with a question, intended to continue the thread. Sometimes I bit, other times I didn’t. But it was interesting.
Approximately 40 gigatons of CO2 is added yearly. If I did my sums correctly that extra mass requires about 34 exajoules of energy to increase 1 C. Where will it come from?
That increased mass affects the PV= nRT relationship.
The Cp of air changed. How much? What direction? Effect on lapse rate?
Given that the Cp of CO2 is slightly less than that of air and CO2 is only some 0.04% of the atmosphere…
… the Cp will decrease by a tiny, immeasurable amount.
So the dry lapse rate will increase by a tiny, immeasurable amount.
The non-dry lapse rate will do absolutely nothing because it is dominated by WV.
At the MLO Hawaii, the concentration of CO2 in dry air is 425 ppmv. One cubic meter of this air contains 0.839 g of CO2. There is little CO2 in air is because most of it is absorbed by the oceans. The pH of the oceans is ca. 8.2. A portion of the CO2 is converted bicarbonate anion. A large portion of the CO2 is fixed by plants ranging from alga to sea weeds and kelp.
We really do not have to worry too much about CO2.
Where will the 34 EJ come from ?
The solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface in just one year, approximately 3 400 000 EJ, so the sun can provide that in about 5 minutes….
The somewhat minor but still entertaining good news is that the pair of Annapolis and Anne Arundel County v. BP lawsuits in Maryland were dismissed last month, and the Platkin v Exxon lawsuit in New Jersey was dismissed this month. However, what got them dismissed was the decision that ‘climate lawfare’ belongs in Federal court, it isn’t a state matter. As I continue to detail at GelbspanFiles, the defendants need to grow a spine and file Motions to Dismiss based on the fact that the core ‘evidence’ in these lawsuits of the industry running ‘disinformation campaigns’ is provably worthless, and that worthless evidence is traceable to just a tiny core clique of enviros who’ve promulgated the accusation for nearly three decades. My Feb 17 blog post showed how a straight line can be drawn from alarmist book author Ross Gelbspan’s particular accusation in his 1997 tirade through the 2017 pair of California lawsuits suing BP which regurgitate the accusation, and into to the months-old Nov 2024 Maine v BP lawsuit, which quite literally plagiarized its accusation out of the two 2017 lawsuits. Please see: “The Problems in the ExxonKnew Lawsuits Keep Getting Worse“
What , if anything , should be read into the observation from the ENSOmeter page that the meter in just a few days has risen from -1 to -0.5 .? Is la Nina , brief and mild, now over? Any discussion here on the effects of la Nina / El Nino concentrate, quite understandably, on the implications for California weather . But are we in the UK isolated from ENSO changes?
Mike,
You might find the info at this site interesting, although it is meant for the State of Oregon.
https://www.oregon.gov/oda/natural-resources/Documents/Weather/forecast.pdf
Because the atmosphere flowing over North America eventually reaches the UK, one might guess the changes will be seen there.
I suspect articles have been written about this.
John
Thank you for the link. It seems that NOAA were expecting a weak La Nina and that it would turn around from March , which seems to be happening, albeit a few days early (due to climate change of course (tongue in cheek)). . .
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is a well-established basis used for defining El Niño/La Niña events, where it reflects the rolling three-month average of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the figure below, I show the measured SST values themselves (not the anomalies) since 1995, which is quite informative in my opinion. The plot also shows the 30-year average SST values, which are used to compute the anomaly values (i.e. the difference between the red and blue curves).
One very clear observation is that once the anomaly value goes negative (red curve goes below blue curve), regardless of how strong the La Niña event gets, the minimum monthly SST value is invariably reached by January for the period since 1995. In fact, since 1950, it seems that the minimum SST value while in La Niña territory has only occurred as late as February twice (1968 and 1981). This year could well be the same.
Most everyone knows about California and the self inflicted problems they are having with power generation and keeping the lights on. Well, there are other states who had also adopted such suicidal green energy policies, and in my home state the chickens have finally come home to roost. Here in Maryland (which, governance wise, is Mini-Me to California’s Dr. Evil) at the beginning of the year most everyone got a really nasty surprise when they went to pay their electric bill. Some people’s bills almost doubled, and most saw a significant increase. Mine was around $130 a month and now it’s close to $200. And boy have people raised a huge stink, unsurprisingly. Even those who essentially voted for it.
It’s gotten so bad that the local news media is covering it, and what few reasonably minded politicians (meaning mostly those who aren’t Dems) we have here are also speaking up. Of course, the few Dems that are speaking up have gone after BGE (the dominant utility of the region) instead of attacking state policies that have forced such utilities to try and make do with less generation. They want to pass some law that would make the utility just magically lower its rates (without doing anything to bolster reliable generation). The few Republicans here have pointed out the real cause – Maryland’s green policies where many coal and some gas power plants have been closed and nothing else has been added (save for near-worthless solar and a smattering of wind). Only 7 percent of this state’s power is generated by such sources. And from all sources within the state can generate only about 40% of the necessary power. The rest must be imported. What we have here is a mini-California in a nutshell. The same problems caused by the same people for the same reasons.
I am hoping Trump’s efforts can turn at least some of this around, not just here and in CA but everywhere that the powers that be have embraced energy and financial suicide.
Trump’s Master Plan: How Russia Lost Everything | George Friedman
Perhaps Trump’s Ukraine strategy ain’t what it looks like- that he’s really trying to outsmart Putin? I found this discussion to be interesting.
My take on the Trump – Zelensky – Putin imbroglio –
1) Trump has been clear that he believes that the USA has no obligations to get involved in
European stoushes;
2) He doesn’t ever care if what he says about or to people offends anyone;
3) Maybe he’d be quite happy if his goading of Zelensky results in Z telling Trump to piss off and
take his military support with him (which would deliver to Trump exactly what he actually wants);
4) As part of this bizarre plan, Trump is not going to rile up any confrontation with Putin’s Russia,
because point #1.
Please excuse a repeat post from another thread. Made it too late, few readers).
A review of the published Australian reps for IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM. Six males, one female.
Pep Canadell (Australia). CSIRO. Birth place unstated, possibly Spain. Published 18 times in year 2024 alone. How can a person publish at this pace and maintain scientific credibility?
Malte Meinshausen (Australia/Germany). Uni of Melbourne, after the radical Potsdam Institute 2006-2011. Birth place unstated, possibly Germany or Switzerland.
Roshanka Ranasinghe (The Netherlands/Sri Lanka/Australia). Now at Twente, Holland. First degree Sri Lanka. Birth place not stated, possibly Sri Lanka.
Blair Trewin (Australia). Possibly born in Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, major player in ACORN-SAT adjusted Australian temperatures.
Alejandro Di Luca (Australia/Canada/Argentina). Currently works in Canada. Uni NSW 2017-2020. Birth place unstated, possibly Argentina.
Pandora Hope (Australia). Bureau of Meteorology. 2005 PhD Uni Melbourne. Possibly Australian born.
Mark Howden (Australia). Australian National Uni. “ roles in the Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth and now Seventh Assessment Reports, sharing the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with other IPCC participants and Al Gore.” Possibly Australian born. Needs to learn Trump orders.
……….
The phrase “Birth place unstated” means no hits from a 5-minute Google search. It could be incomplete. If so I will correct with apologies.
For myself, I was born at Oakey, Queensland in June 1941. My father, an officer in the Royal Australian Air Force, had several wartime postings involving our relocation in Australia. He was posted to New Guinea without family from about 1942 to late 1945. I can trace my ancestry back for 4 earlier Australian generations. My love of my country and my desire to help improve it by practical, wealth generating scientific applications might well be much greater than that of several of the above academics.
Why do they consider that they are qualified to represent Australia? Their published views are not at all compatible with mine. Who selected them to represent Australia, anyone know?
….
How do folk from other countries feel about how they are represented by these unelected people?
Geoff S