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strativarius
February 2, 2025 2:27 am
Going nuts.
MPs and ministers say they would oppose Starmer if he tries to approve Rosebank development … MPs and ministers have told the Guardian they are prepared to oppose the UK prime minister should he try and give final consent to the Rosebank development, which is Britain’s biggest untapped oilfield … One ally of the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who is leading the government’s climate agenda, said the former Labourleader would have a “punchy” response for any attempt to give consent to Rosebank. The ally said: “Ed will come to that fight armed with a lot of evidence about what Rosebank will do to our carbon emissions.” A spokesperson for Miliband declined to comment. A Labour backbencher said: “[A decision around Rosebank] will be a moment to speak out. There are a lot of us, on every wing of the party, who would go absolutely nuts if that happened.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/31/keir-starmer-warned-against-approving-rosebank-oilfield-labour-unease-heathrow
Ciao Mad Ed hopefully, however I can’t see how Starmer could force it through if the courts will simply overturn the decision as incompatible with his obligations under CCA 2008.
You will always need Diesel fuel for firetrucks, garbage trucks, cement trucks and all the heavy transports such as trains, planes, freight trucks, etc. What are these guys thinking? The UK does not have worry about CO2 because most of it is absorbed by the cold ocean water.
I agree Rosebank should go ahead. But its marginal contribution to the freely, internationally traded oil and gas supply could never be enough to drive down prices to make energy “cheap”. The only way it could do that would be nationalise it too, but probably not even then, knowing this country.
I believe the idea of “creating wealth” is an American one. Prior to the founding of the US of A, wealth was measured in physical, tangible objects; land, jewels, precious metals, etc. The Americans were the first to realize that you could make money ie. ‘create wealth” by licensing an idea or process.
I beg to differ. I believe the the advancement and dissemination of knowledge is the well-spring of wealth. furthermore, measures of wealth must include freedom, health and knowledge. All of which are nessasary to facilitate choice, the ultimate measure of wealth.
Wealth includes skills, abilities and knowledge that are improved by education and experience. And designing an economic system that encourages wealth creation. My personal wealth consists of a copper penny collection and a book of forever stamps
Richard, you said “My personal wealth consists of a copper penny collection and a book of forever stamps.” In both cases you did not create them, only collected them, i.e. something made by someone else.
When the attribution of “rapid” century-scale warming to emissions of CO2 is questioned, one hears “what else could it be?!?”
“We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.”
Yes, this is the Charles D. Keeling, of the “Keeling Curve” record of CO2 concentrations from the Mauna Loa observatory.
The final paragraph:
“Looking ahead, a prediction of “pronounced global warming” over the next few decades by Broecker (15), presumed to be triggered by the warm phase of an 80-year climatic cycle of unidentified origin, would be reinterpreted as the continuation of natural warming in roughly centennial increments that began at the end of the Little Ice Age, and will continue in spurts for several hundred years. Even without further warming brought about by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, this natural warming at its greatest intensity would be expected to exceed any that has occurred since the first millennium of the Christian era, as the 1,800-year tidal cycle progresses from climactic cooling during the 15th century to the next such episode in the 32nd century.”
So sure, “greenhouse gases” are mentioned, but not as a large factor.
Keeling and Whorf obviously did not think CO2 is “the control knob” or that it is even necessary as an explanation of the current trend of recovery from the Little Ice Age.
Any scientist worth his/her salt has a hefty streak of skepticism, and should hew to the geology principle of multiple working hypotheses! That’s how climate “scientists” prove they are not!
““Looking ahead, a prediction of “pronounced global warming” over the next few decades by Broecker (15), presumed to be triggered by the warm phase of an 80-year climatic cycle of unidentified origin”
There we go!
We are currently in a warm phase of the cycle. What comes after a warm phase of a cycle? Answer: A cool phase of the cycle follows.
It wasn’t hard to predict this current warm phase, as we had two similar examples of warm phases (1880’s and 1930’s) and cool phases (1910’s and 1970’s) since the end of the Little Ice Age, so it is not a great leap to predict another warming cycle.
It’s just that now, nobody is predicting a coming cooling cycle. CO2-phobia has removed this possibility from the general discussion. CO2-phobes think the temperatures are going to climb higher and higher and higher and higher.
“Interesting times.” Agreed. And in respect to the “CO2-phobia” – as you know – my aim has been to directly demonstrate that the potential impact of emissions on the climate trends is negligible.
Tom, my sunspot-based model, predicted that a period of slight cooling started in 2016. If the temperature data is biased high (e.g. UHI), then the cooling could be moderate. The cooling was interrupted by the current temperature spike, but that spike showing signs of dissipating, especially in the tropics.
Based on other evidence, sometime after 2035, it will start warming again with peak temperatures in 2100-2200. Then we’re in for 4-500 years of cooling.
After figuring out why my sunspot model works, I was able to extract these long-term signals from the motion of the Sun around the barycenter. The top, blue trace and middle, red trace have peaks in the mid 2100s. The dashed line is a fixed-period sine wave shown for reference.
“my sunspot-based model, predicted that a period of slight cooling started in 2016”
Fron 2014 through 2024, the UAH increased about +0.4 degrees C. … The largest 10 year increase in the UAH database. Your model fell apart like a cheap suitcase. Try again.
Sea surface temperatures alone increased more the 0.4 degrees during the 2023-24 El Nino event, and has a wider peak than any recent similar event. Your response might be damning — it it were accurate and wasn’t cherry picked.
Thanks, Clyde. The model predicted the rise prior to 2016. As a proxy of solar activity, sunspots are not going to predict normal ENSO events, or temperature fluctuations due to volcanic activity.
I’ll be updating this plot in the next day or two when January temps are released. Asjka was a wet volcano.
The Gleissberg cycle, also known as the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle (CGC), is a roughly 80-100 year variation in the amplitude of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and it does have a detectable, though relatively small, influence on global average temperature
Much ado about nothing
Could possibly cause a 0.1 degree C. variation in the global average temperature.
Sunspot counts are a worthless proxy. The counts have been going down since 1980 while the global average temperature was rising.
Here’s your cyclical temperature chart, Hansen 1999. It shows a difference of about 2.0C between the high temperature points of the cycle and the low temperature points of the cycle.
Hansen 1999:
I don’t know what causes the climate cycles but I’m pretty sure it’s not CO2.
I guess you are not capable of reading a temperature chart properly. That makes sense.
Refusing to accept what the legitimate written temperature record shows.
Talk about a Denier.
That’s right: The written temperature record is not compatible with the computer-generated Hockey Stick chart lie. You should ask your self why that is. Why do you believe in a computer-generated lie?
Talking of the Keeling Curve, why is global temperature taken at multiple locations mainly over land and averaged by a method unknown to me and CO2 taken at a single location surrounded by ocean for 2 or 3 thousand miles in any direction?
Ben, there are multiple stations, and also samples from aircraft, etc. The Mauna Loa station has the longest record. There’s also an Antarctic station that is often used for longer-term records.
Besides Mauna Loa, Hawaii, atmospheric CO2 is measured at several other locations around the globe, including Barrow, Alaska; American Samoa; and the South Pole, Antarctica. These locations are chosen for their remote, pristine environments, minimizing local pollution influences and providing a more accurate representation of global CO2 trends.
Satellite Measurements:
NASA and other organizations use satellites to measure CO2 in the atmosphere from space, providing a broader view of global CO2 distribution.
Other Measurement Methods:
Scientists utilize various techniques to measure CO2, including infrared gas analyzers, which measure the absorption of infrared light by CO2 molecules, and direct sampling of air from different locations.
If you have ever visited Barrow, you would realize that it is hardly a pristine place. Besides having a small airport handling cargo aircraft, numerous pickup trucks and snowmobiles, and homes that are heated by natural gas, it did have a small army base (I don’t know its current status) which routinely exhausted incinerated human waste into the atmosphere, and also had diesel-powered heavy equipment.
CO2 taken at a single location … Come on, man! Educate yourself. Atmospheric CO2 is measured at a dozen locations and in numerous ways. The measurements are checked against each other. The only one that regularly gets mentioned is the one at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. That is like hearing of “Paris in the Springtime”, but there are other cities that experience springtime. I can even name some.
The thermal response of land to solar forcing is greater than ocean. Most warming has occurred at 70N, which is almost all land at that latitude: ?ssl=1
The peak solar intensity across the northern land masses is increasing and has been for 500 years. The solar intensity is increasing in summer but reducing in winter but on average increasing: ?ssl=1
It is quite obvious that new daily snowfall records will be a common feature of weather reporting for at least the next 5,000 years. Warmer oceans adjacent cold land in winter means more heat advection that will be experienced as snow wherever the land is below 0C.
The warming trend in the NH, primarily driven by the precession cycle, is not going to reverse until the snow is accumulating from year-to-year. That is presently only occurring on Greenland: ?ssl=1
In 2020 The term “wind droughts” began to appear in the literature of the Energy Realists of Australia and in the notorious Integrated System Plan produced by the Market Operator. That was long after the original studies of Australian wind droughts by Anton Lang and the Paul Miskelly team, reported on Jo Nova’s blog.
We read more about wind droughts nowadays, although if you ask a roomful of people about wind droughts you will mostly see quizzical expressions.
Wind droughts might have been investigated thoroughly in the 1990s when windmills started to be attached to the Australian grid and certainly before 2001 when the Howard government legislated a renewable energy target of 15% by 2020.
Think about it. Would you go farming without checking the rainfall before you start tilling and planting or indeed before you purchase the property?
The wind supply and especially the reliability of supply is to wind farming as rainfall is to growing pasture and crops……..AND THERE IS MORE
Just to show what a SE Australian evening peak grid management nightmare solar+wind (s+w) caused during calendar year 2022, the following graph shows daily departures from the annual average s+w generation for the period.
The very long range UK forecast for February is cool and dry with high pressure buildingto the northeast. If that’s how it unfolds it’s not going to be good for the wind powered grid.
By inspection, it is clear that march through end of June is the low wind period and will drive the system design. There is 13.46GW of installed wind in 2024, which would produce 2,261GWh at 100% CF, The lowest week in the year wind produced 223GWh corresponding to 9.8% CF.
The LCOE of battery firmed wind supplying the NEM would be AUD1300/MWh at present cost of generators and lithium batteries over a 25 year life allowing for battery replacement after 15 years.
Battery firmed wind is very expensive for Australia.
The UK Met Office has taken a leaf out of their southern colonials weather book from 1902, who also chose to name “approaching (atmospheric) depressions, seeming to invest them with added malevolence” as follows:
…the western penumbra of the great Antarctic disturbance, “Braddon”, is especially affecting the eastern portion of the Tasman Sea…..
….the new disturbance, “Sproull”, is now south-west from Eucla, and appears to have greatly increased in extent and energy…
It makes relatively common weather systems sound very nasty.
President Trump has again exposed the Democrats for the liars they are.
For the last four years, since Biden was elected, the Democrats have said they could not secure the U.S. border without Congress first writing new laws.
Now, Trump has practically shut the illegal immigration down with him being in office less than two weeks, and Trump didn’t need even one new law to do it.
The Democrats, and Biden could have done the same thing, they just didn’t want to. They wanted as many illegal aliens invading our country as possible. One has to wonder why the Democrats thought this was a good idea. The only logical reason for them doing this is they thought it would somehow add to their political power. Instead, it is one of the reasons Trump is now president.
Trump has deported 9,000 illegal aliens as of this morning. Most of them are hardened criminals who won’t be committing their crimes in the United States now, thanks to Donald Trump.
The hidden story behind the illegal immigration crisis is the plethora of NGOs receiving US govt. funding, which then turn around and distribute said funds to the cartels through their traffickees! Look for the Trump Admin to start targeting these groups for conspiracy and fraud!
Yes, there needs to be a big investigation of all these NGO’s.
The Biden administration was getting NGO’s to do things for him that the federal government was not legally able to do, so Biden and the Democrats used NGO’s to make an end-run around the laws. And the NGO’s went right along with it because there is a LOT of money in it for them.
Some of these NGO’s are enabling the trafficking of women and children inside the United States. Those doing so should go to jail.
Trump’s Border Czar, Tom Homan, said this morning that illegal immigration was down by 93 percent since Trump took over. Homan said it was even lower than during Trump’s first term.
There is another possible reason why Biden might have wanted the southern border to be wide open. Maybe he was being blackmailed by the Mexican drug cartels.
As you know, Biden’s son Hunter was a drug addict. And heroin isn’t cheap. Perhaps his son Hunter was deep in debt to the Mexican drug cartels as a result of his heroin addiction, and perhaps the cartels offered to forgive the debt if the border was opened up. The money the Mexican drug cartels would make through drug trafficking and from human trafficking across an open border would be orders of magnitude higher than Hunter’s possible heroin debt. This is just sheer speculation.
An open border with a narco state like Mexico just doesn’t make any sense.
“An open border with a narco state…doesn’t make any sense.”
You, sir, are suffering from an insufficiency of imagination as to the depths to which the Marxist’s mind can go! To the committed Marxist, increased chaos and criminality are blessings to be bestowed liberally on the populace as it makes them more amenable to finally accepting the future Utopia as an improvement! If they have to import a few million extra criminal murderers and rapists in the mean time, it is just desserts for those who bitterly cling to outmoded capitalist tropes like freedom and prosperity!
Besides, the CIA would never let their pet attack dogs blackmail members of the Biden Crime family; that’s the kind of job that offers the rewards and influence preserved for top level management only!!
Sounds like the start of a good Hollywood thriller. I have long subscribed to the idea that the point of gun control was for politicians to give the impression of doing something about crime, in order to get re-elected, without doing anything to actually disrupt drug trafficking and thereby continue to skim off the profits.
The only logical reason for them doing this is they thought it would somehow add to their political power. Instead, it is one of the reasons Trump is now president.
I speaks to the intelligence of typical democrats.
Quondam
February 2, 2025 4:32 am
Memory faintly recalls a quotation to the effect that difficulties understanding thermodynamics exist because it was discovered two centuries ahead of schedule. No better evidenced today than by the current obsession with reductionist interpretations, no matter pro or con, for carbon dioxide. Why one may move from a gazillion p’s and q’s of classical mechanics, through a chaotic phase space, to emerge with reproducible macroscopic states dependent on but a handful of parameters challenges contemporary comprehension. Philosophically minded folks may find muse-worthy:
Twenty-first-century theoretical physics is coming out of the chaos revolution. It will be about complexity and its principal tool will be the computer. Its final expression remains to be found. Thermodynamics, as a vital part of theoretical physics, will partake in the transformation. https://necsi.edu/chaos-complexity-and-entropy
But, first and foremost, the story of the Second Law is the story of a great intellectual achievement of the mid-19th century. It’s exciting now, of course, to be able to use the latest 21st-century ideas to take another step. But to appreciate how this fits in with what’s already known we have to go back and study the history of what originally led to the Second Law, and how what emerged as conventional wisdom about it took shape. https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2023/02/computational-foundations-for-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics/
PROPOSED: The Thermodynamic State shall be defined by path-independence. Neither past nor future states may be derived from the present?
abolition man
February 2, 2025 4:34 am
Who will join me in calling for President Trump to be nominated for an Oscar or an Emmy as best comedic actor of 2025!? Zelensky had a lock on the prize, but recent developments indicate his show may not be renewed this year. He’ll have to settle for the title of World’s Highest Paid Actor!
You are also right about Trump being funny. I had to laugh when he said he should get the credit for the Middle East cease fire (which happened on Biden’s watch), but then said the Washington plane crash was all Biden’s fault (which happened on his watch).
The middle East cease fire only became a reality once Trump was elected and started letting Hamas know what they could expect to happen if they didn’t start to comply..
The Washington crash is indicative of one of the many things wrong with personnel levels and ability that Trump has not had the chance to correct yet. Only one controller, rather than the usual two, was handling the local plane and helicopter traffic on Wednesday night. General FAA staffing levels and ability have been let fall too low due to hiring policies.. Control systems need upgrading.
Military aircraft was flying too high, way above its limit.. why?
All the principal actors in the Middle East are giving Trump credit for the hostage releases.
The negotiations between Biden and the terrorists were going nowhere until Trump threatened the terrorists. All of a sudden, things started moving.
Trump blew up some ISIS terrorists in Yemen the other day. I think he wanted to establish his intentions with terrorists worldwide, and other bad actors. Mess with Trump and he will blow you up.
Trump meets with Netanyahu today. Trump has already started sending 2,000 pound bombs to Israel. Biden withheld these weapons from Israel. These 2,000 pound bombs will come in real handy when Israel takes out the nuclear production facilities of the Mad Mullahs of Iran in the near future.
I think Trump is going to give the Mad Mullahs a chance to hand over the enriched uranium they have produced, but if they don’t, then the Mad Mullahs can expect to see a lot of bombers over their territory. One bomb might even land on their house. Trump and Netanyahu know where they live.
I think it is a stretch to imply Trump was responsible, but I listen to a balanced view on the news and it is true he deserves some credit. I could handle it is he said something like “outgoing president Joe Biden deserves some credit for this deal, but it wouldn’t have happened without my help.” It is just so funny how it is classic Trump play book…. take all the credit for all the good stuff and blame others for the bad. His handling of covid the best possible example.
Trump is a natural comedian, mainly by telling the truth. I look at how Democrats react to him and that makes me laugh. They are SO predictable, and Trump takes great pleasure in egging them on. And they respond in typical TDS fashion.
I don’t care for his rhetoric sometimes, but I have a sneaking feeling he may go down as one of the most effective US leaders in recent history; and I think he might be the most fun to have a beer or party with; although he’d have to the designated driver, since he doesn’t drink!
I was hoping to encourage a little discussion of President Trump’s policies, most of which I heartily approve of. I was trying to emulate the confrontational style of Richard Greene, but I guess a lot of you thought that I was just being a Dick!
But they are not particularly clever Tom are they? And I don’t know about you but nick names are a bit childish don’t you think? I mean if you are the leader of the free world, do you think calling people names is appropriate?
State of Maine
The over-taxed, over-regulated, already-impoverished Maine people are super-screwed, trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real growth Maine economy
The Maine economy has lots of low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit, bs jobs
The Maine economy has lots of woke, leftist bureaucrats
Screwed-over Mainers also have to pay for poverty-stricken, aliens of different cultures from all over, who illegally enter the US, a federal felony
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Those illegal aliens:
– are the dregs of Third World countries, sent by to Maine by their US-hating, leftist, woke governments, in cahoots with Soros-financed NGOs
– are getting free housing, free food, a never-empty credit card, free healthcare, free education and whatever other goodies they want. They mainly suck of the government tit
– have no skills, no training, no education, no modern industrial experience.
– will take low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit jobs away from screwed-over Mainers.
– are often good at crime, murder, rape and mayhem.
.
Many millions of illegal aliens have to be shipped back where they came from, before they ruin the US.
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Down-trodden Mainers often have to put up with the visual ugliness and noise of hundreds of windmills, that are often idle, because of too little wind year-round, and many thousands of acres of solar panels, that are often covered with snow and ice in winter; there is no solar at night.
.
MAGA will lead to higher CO2 ppm to 1) increase growth of flora and fauna all over the world, and to 2) increase crop yields to feed hungry people. What is not to like?
NEW ENGLAND 100% WIND AND SOLAR?
New England would need a minimum of 10 TWh of DELIVERABLE electricity from batteries to the HV grid, and a sufficient capacity, MW, of wind and solar systems to serve demand 24/7/365
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Batteries would supplement wind and solar, as needed, 24/7/365
Wind and solar would charge excess output into the batteries, 24/7/365
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Tesla recommends not charging to more than 80% full and not discharging to less than 20% full, to achieve normal life of 15 years and normal aging at 1.5%/y.
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The INSTALLED battery capacity would need to be at least 10 TWh / (0.6, Tesla factor x aging factor x 0.9, outage factor) = 18.5 TWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet.
.
The turnkey cost would be about $600/installed kWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet, 2024 pricing, or $600/kWh x 18.5 billion kWh = $11.1 billion, about every 15 years.
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THE ANNUAL ACHIEVABLE THROUGHPUT IN REAL LIFE IS AT MOST 40%
At 40% throughput, the cost of sending electricity through the batteries is about 38 c/kWh, 2024 pricing
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This is on top of the cost of wind and solar going through the battery. https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
Wilpost:
And they would replacing the wind turbines on a similar ~15 year schedule as well.
Regarding your “The turnkey cost…”
[$600/KWH] x 18.5 billion KWh = $600 x 18.5 billion = 11.1 Trillion dollars [not Billion]
Am I missing something?
High Costs/kWh of Wind and Solar Foisted onto a Brainwashed Public
.
The three main subsidies are:
Federal and state tax credits and cash grants,
5-y Accelerated Depreciation write off of the entire project
Deduction of interest of borrowed money
.
The effect of the three items is to reduce the owning and operating cost of a project by 50%, which means electricity be sold at 50% less than it costs to produce.
Utilities pay 15 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from fixedoffshore wind systems
Utilities pay 18 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from floating offshore wind
Utilities pay 12 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from larger solar systems
. Excluded costs, at a future 30% W/S annual penetration on the grid, the current UK level:
– Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement, about 2 c/kWh
– Traditional power plants quickly counteracting W/S variable output, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, about 2 c/kWh
– Traditional power plants providing electricity during 1) low-wind periods, 2) high-wind periods, when rotors are locked in place, and 3) low solar periods during mornings, evenings and at night, about 2 c/kWh
– W/S electricity that could have been produced, if not curtailed, about 1 c/kWh
– Importing electricity at high prices, when W/S output is low, 1 c/kWh
– Exporting electricity at low prices, when W/S output is high, 1 c/kWh
– Disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites, about 2 c/kWh Some of these values exponentially increase as more wind and solar systems are added to the grid . The economic/financial insanity and environmental damage of it all is off the charts. No wonder Europe’s near-zero, real-growth economy is in such big do-do
Like one commenter said: The Democrat Party is doubling down on stupid!
The leaders of the Democrat Party think Kamala Harris lost the presidential race because of racism. That’s where their heads are. Completely out to lunch. Completely out of touch with the average American and with reality. Let’s hope they stay that way, and fade into history.
As long as women insist that men purchase the bright shiny objects known as diamonds to present to them as proof of their prowess, there can never be a net zero level achieved for carbon.
A quick check of all politicians wives necks, ears and fingers at public ceremonies shows that to be true in all cases.
I just heard Trump give an impromptu press conference on the way to his helicopter, and he was talking tough about imposing tariffs on nations that are treating the United States unfairly, and he singled out the UK and Europe and told us how we had a $350 billion yearly trade deficit with the UK and Europe and something had to be done about it.
What caught my attention was Trump’s take on the UK. Trump said the problems with the UK were not bad and could probably be worked out. So it appears there is a possibility that Trump may not impose tariffs on the UK.
But Trump is definitely going to impose tariffs on Europe.
I guess Trump is going to impose tariffs on every nation that has a trade surplus with the United States. He wants to get the U.S. deficits closer to zero.
A Mexican guy mows my grass, trims my hedges, pressure washes my driveway and windows. I have a trade deficit with him. I’m thinking that telling him I’m going to charge him a tariff to balance that deficit might be a bad idea for me.
Laws of Nature
February 2, 2025 5:22 pm
Uh I am not sure if anyone looked at RealClimate recently, but S. Rahmstorf blogged quite a jewel this week: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/01/the-amoc-is-slowing-its-stable-its-slowing-no-yes/#comments
in defense of his “the AMOC is weakening” idea..
“In the North Atlantic, the historic runs of CMIP6 models on average do not reproduce the ‘cold blob’ despite this being such a striking feature of the observational data,[..] Thus I consider CMIP6 models as less suited to test how well the ‘cold blob’ works as AMOC indicator than the CMIP5 models.”
Somebody needs to tell him that CMIP5 models are just bad copies of CMIP6 models with lower resolution and bad cloud physics!
!!! Here is the important part !!!
If he cannot find his wanted pattern in the newer and better models, it is about time to man up and correct his old papers!
Rahmstorf was one of the six initial agitators forcing the retraction of Alimonti´s paper, which did not contain such scientific blunders, surely his firm stand on questionable science MUST lead to a retraction of his papers which seems to be based just on modeling artifacts as he describes himself in his blog article!
(BTW this is similarly true for all the other CMIP5 based findings, in an honest scientific field that climate sensitivity correction of about 25% should cause a shock-wave of retrackted old papers!)
Has anyone else noticed that perplexity.ai seems to have changed its interface? Now you are very limited in what you can ask it, to a series of multiple choices, and your followup questions seem similarly limited.
Or is this just me? If its general it will be a pity, an end to what has been a genuinely useful, if imperfect, tool.
John Power
February 3, 2025 8:47 am
If you haven’t heard this news yet I’m pretty sure you soon will!
Going nuts.
MPs and ministers say they would oppose Starmer if he tries to approve Rosebank development
…
MPs and ministers have told the Guardian they are prepared to oppose the UK prime minister should he try and give final consent to the Rosebank development, which is Britain’s biggest untapped oilfield
…
One ally of the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who is leading the government’s climate agenda, said the former Labourleader would have a “punchy” response for any attempt to give consent to Rosebank. The ally said: “Ed will come to that fight armed with a lot of evidence about what Rosebank will do to our carbon emissions.”
A spokesperson for Miliband declined to comment.
A Labour backbencher said: “[A decision around Rosebank] will be a moment to speak out. There are a lot of us, on every wing of the party, who would go absolutely nuts if that happened.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/31/keir-starmer-warned-against-approving-rosebank-oilfield-labour-unease-heathrow
Ciao cheap energy.
Ciao Mad Ed hopefully, however I can’t see how Starmer could force it through if the courts will simply overturn the decision as incompatible with his obligations under CCA 2008.
Flywheel won’t resign even if he eventually loses this one. Gaia’s work is never done.
Starmer is a complete space of waste.
You will always need Diesel fuel for firetrucks, garbage trucks, cement trucks and all the heavy transports such as trains, planes, freight trucks, etc. What are these guys thinking? The UK does not have worry about CO2 because most of it is absorbed by the cold ocean water.
“These guys” are clinically insane.
Mostly criminal insanity; like a BLM riot inside Parliament and Downing Street!
I agree Rosebank should go ahead. But its marginal contribution to the freely, internationally traded oil and gas supply could never be enough to drive down prices to make energy “cheap”. The only way it could do that would be nationalise it too, but probably not even then, knowing this country.
It won’t exactly hurt, either. Why not use our own rather than Qatar, US. etc?
Absolutely, and there is the important matter of creating wealth, which Green zealots can’t get their tiny heads round.
I believe the idea of “creating wealth” is an American one. Prior to the founding of the US of A, wealth was measured in physical, tangible objects; land, jewels, precious metals, etc. The Americans were the first to realize that you could make money ie. ‘create wealth” by licensing an idea or process.
As has been stated here several times, the only way you can create wealth is to grow it, dig it or build it.
I beg to differ. I believe the the advancement and dissemination of knowledge is the well-spring of wealth. furthermore, measures of wealth must include freedom, health and knowledge. All of which are nessasary to facilitate choice, the ultimate measure of wealth.
Or, compute it as with bitcoins, unfortunately.
Wealth includes skills, abilities and knowledge that are improved by education and experience. And designing an economic system that encourages wealth creation. My personal wealth consists of a copper penny collection and a book of forever stamps
Richard, you said “My personal wealth consists of a copper penny collection and a book of forever stamps.” In both cases you did not create them, only collected them, i.e. something made by someone else.
When I was much younger Balance of Payments were important and on the News every month when published.
Labour PM Wilson lost an election on a negative BOP figure a few days before the vote.
When the attribution of “rapid” century-scale warming to emissions of CO2 is questioned, one hears “what else could it be?!?”
“We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.”
Keeling and Whorf 2000. “The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change”
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.070047197
Yes, this is the Charles D. Keeling, of the “Keeling Curve” record of CO2 concentrations from the Mauna Loa observatory.
The final paragraph:
“Looking ahead, a prediction of “pronounced global warming” over the next few decades by Broecker (15), presumed to be triggered by the warm phase of an 80-year climatic cycle of unidentified origin, would be reinterpreted as the continuation of natural warming in roughly centennial increments that began at the end of the Little Ice Age, and will continue in spurts for several hundred years. Even without further warming brought about by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, this natural warming at its greatest intensity would be expected to exceed any that has occurred since the first millennium of the Christian era, as the 1,800-year tidal cycle progresses from climactic cooling during the 15th century to the next such episode in the 32nd century.”
So sure, “greenhouse gases” are mentioned, but not as a large factor.
Keeling and Whorf obviously did not think CO2 is “the control knob” or that it is even necessary as an explanation of the current trend of recovery from the Little Ice Age.
Any scientist worth his/her salt has a hefty streak of skepticism, and should hew to the geology principle of multiple working hypotheses! That’s how climate “scientists” prove they are not!
Where is your skepticism for David Dribbell drivel? Ot does skepticism ONLY apply to the CO2 / greenhouse theory consensus?
David was quoting a paper you self-important, odious twonk.
““Looking ahead, a prediction of “pronounced global warming” over the next few decades by Broecker (15), presumed to be triggered by the warm phase of an 80-year climatic cycle of unidentified origin”
There we go!
We are currently in a warm phase of the cycle. What comes after a warm phase of a cycle? Answer: A cool phase of the cycle follows.
It wasn’t hard to predict this current warm phase, as we had two similar examples of warm phases (1880’s and 1930’s) and cool phases (1910’s and 1970’s) since the end of the Little Ice Age, so it is not a great leap to predict another warming cycle.
It’s just that now, nobody is predicting a coming cooling cycle. CO2-phobia has removed this possibility from the general discussion. CO2-phobes think the temperatures are going to climb higher and higher and higher and higher.
Which way will the trend go? Interesting times.
“Interesting times.” Agreed. And in respect to the “CO2-phobia” – as you know – my aim has been to directly demonstrate that the potential impact of emissions on the climate trends is negligible.
Tom, my sunspot-based model, predicted that a period of slight cooling started in 2016. If the temperature data is biased high (e.g. UHI), then the cooling could be moderate. The cooling was interrupted by the current temperature spike, but that spike showing signs of dissipating, especially in the tropics.
Based on other evidence, sometime after 2035, it will start warming again with peak temperatures in 2100-2200. Then we’re in for 4-500 years of cooling.
After figuring out why my sunspot model works, I was able to extract these long-term signals from the motion of the Sun around the barycenter. The top, blue trace and middle, red trace have peaks in the mid 2100s. The dashed line is a fixed-period sine wave shown for reference.
“my sunspot-based model, predicted that a period of slight cooling started in 2016”
Fron 2014 through 2024, the UAH increased about +0.4 degrees C. … The largest 10 year increase in the UAH database. Your model fell apart like a cheap suitcase. Try again.
Sea surface temperatures alone increased more the 0.4 degrees during the 2023-24 El Nino event, and has a wider peak than any recent similar event. Your response might be damning — it it were accurate and wasn’t cherry picked.
Thanks, Clyde. The model predicted the rise prior to 2016. As a proxy of solar activity, sunspots are not going to predict normal ENSO events, or temperature fluctuations due to volcanic activity.
I’ll be updating this plot in the next day or two when January temps are released. Asjka was a wet volcano.
The Gleissberg cycle, also known as the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle (CGC), is a roughly 80-100 year variation in the amplitude of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and it does have a detectable, though relatively small, influence on global average temperature
Much ado about nothing
Could possibly cause a 0.1 degree C. variation in the global average temperature.
Sunspot counts are a worthless proxy. The counts have been going down since 1980 while the global average temperature was rising.
Here’s your cyclical temperature chart, Hansen 1999. It shows a difference of about 2.0C between the high temperature points of the cycle and the low temperature points of the cycle.
Hansen 1999:
I don’t know what causes the climate cycles but I’m pretty sure it’s not CO2.
Mainly +/- 0.5 degrees C. variations which is is a nothingburger, not a cycle.
You are cherry picking the two extreme years.
Climate is a 30 year average not the two cherry picked extremes,
And no one claims CO2 caused those minor variations before 1975 — not enough CO2 emissions before then
Your analysis is very faulty.
BILLY JOEL – A Minor Variation (Lyric Video)
“Mainly +/- 0.5 degrees C. variations”
I guess you are not capable of reading a temperature chart properly. That makes sense.
Refusing to accept what the legitimate written temperature record shows.
Talk about a Denier.
That’s right: The written temperature record is not compatible with the computer-generated Hockey Stick chart lie. You should ask your self why that is. Why do you believe in a computer-generated lie?
Talking of the Keeling Curve, why is global temperature taken at multiple locations mainly over land and averaged by a method unknown to me and CO2 taken at a single location surrounded by ocean for 2 or 3 thousand miles in any direction?
I think CO2 is also sampled at a station down in the Southern Ocean near Tasmania.
Ben, there are multiple stations, and also samples from aircraft, etc. The Mauna Loa station has the longest record. There’s also an Antarctic station that is often used for longer-term records.
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/about.html
Likely to give scientists/bureaucrats something to do, be important, justify their existence, suck from the government tit until retirement.
Besides Mauna Loa, Hawaii, atmospheric CO2 is measured at several other locations around the globe, including Barrow, Alaska; American Samoa; and the South Pole, Antarctica. These locations are chosen for their remote, pristine environments, minimizing local pollution influences and providing a more accurate representation of global CO2 trends.
Satellite Measurements:
NASA and other organizations use satellites to measure CO2 in the atmosphere from space, providing a broader view of global CO2 distribution.
Other Measurement Methods:
Scientists utilize various techniques to measure CO2, including infrared gas analyzers, which measure the absorption of infrared light by CO2 molecules, and direct sampling of air from different locations.
If you have ever visited Barrow, you would realize that it is hardly a pristine place. Besides having a small airport handling cargo aircraft, numerous pickup trucks and snowmobiles, and homes that are heated by natural gas, it did have a small army base (I don’t know its current status) which routinely exhausted incinerated human waste into the atmosphere, and also had diesel-powered heavy equipment.
CO2 taken at a single location …
Come on, man! Educate yourself.
Atmospheric CO2 is measured at a dozen locations and in numerous ways. The measurements are checked against each other. The only one that regularly gets mentioned is the one at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. That is like hearing of “Paris in the Springtime”, but there are other cities that experience springtime. I can even name some.
Because climatologists can’t walk on water.
Could it not simply be the recovery from the LIA and/or the various clean air acts that give us clearer skies?
The thermal response of land to solar forcing is greater than ocean. Most warming has occurred at 70N, which is almost all land at that latitude:
?ssl=1
The peak solar intensity across the northern land masses is increasing and has been for 500 years. The solar intensity is increasing in summer but reducing in winter but on average increasing:
?ssl=1
It is quite obvious that new daily snowfall records will be a common feature of weather reporting for at least the next 5,000 years. Warmer oceans adjacent cold land in winter means more heat advection that will be experienced as snow wherever the land is below 0C.
The warming trend in the NH, primarily driven by the precession cycle, is not going to reverse until the snow is accumulating from year-to-year. That is presently only occurring on Greenland:
?ssl=1
WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT WIND DROUGHTS
https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/we-have-to-talk-about-wind-droughts
In 2020 The term “wind droughts” began to appear in the literature of the Energy Realists of Australia and in the notorious Integrated System Plan produced by the Market Operator. That was long after the original studies of Australian wind droughts by Anton Lang and the Paul Miskelly team, reported on Jo Nova’s blog.
We read more about wind droughts nowadays, although if you ask a roomful of people about wind droughts you will mostly see quizzical expressions.
Wind droughts might have been investigated thoroughly in the 1990s when windmills started to be attached to the Australian grid and certainly before 2001 when the Howard government legislated a renewable energy target of 15% by 2020.
Think about it. Would you go farming without checking the rainfall before you start tilling and planting or indeed before you purchase the property?
The wind supply and especially the reliability of supply is to wind farming as rainfall is to growing pasture and crops……..AND THERE IS MORE
https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/we-have-to-talk-about-wind-droughts
Just to show what a SE Australian evening peak grid management nightmare solar+wind (s+w) caused during calendar year 2022, the following graph shows daily departures from the annual average s+w generation for the period.
The very long range UK forecast for February is cool and dry with high pressure buildingto the northeast. If that’s how it unfolds it’s not going to be good for the wind powered grid.
What are the odds of any long range forecast being accurate, apart from sheer chance?
There is plenty of data in Australia on actual wind output so no need to talk about wind droughts; simply look at what was achieved. Attached shows last year for wind in Australia. It comes from Open NEM:
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1w&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
By inspection, it is clear that march through end of June is the low wind period and will drive the system design. There is 13.46GW of installed wind in 2024, which would produce 2,261GWh at 100% CF, The lowest week in the year wind produced 223GWh corresponding to 9.8% CF.
The LCOE of battery firmed wind supplying the NEM would be AUD1300/MWh at present cost of generators and lithium batteries over a 25 year life allowing for battery replacement after 15 years.
Battery firmed wind is very expensive for Australia.
The UK Met Office has taken a leaf out of their southern colonials weather book from 1902, who also chose to name “approaching (atmospheric) depressions, seeming to invest them with added malevolence” as follows:
…the western penumbra of the great Antarctic disturbance, “Braddon”, is especially affecting the eastern portion of the Tasman Sea…..
….the new disturbance, “Sproull”, is now south-west from Eucla, and appears to have greatly increased in extent and energy…
It makes relatively common weather systems sound very nasty.
It has the added benefit of making them sound more authoritative to the simple-minded and poorly educated; a large majority in most modern nations!
Or “educated but ignorant”.
“It makes relatively common weather systems sound very nasty.”
I think that is the whole point in naming thunderstorms, especially today. The better to scare us with.
A simplified, maybe more understandable take an water vapor and the GHE..
https://greenhousedefect.com/basic-greenhouse-defects/water-vapor-the-simple-truth
Except of course it isnt that simple..
President Trump has again exposed the Democrats for the liars they are.
For the last four years, since Biden was elected, the Democrats have said they could not secure the U.S. border without Congress first writing new laws.
Now, Trump has practically shut the illegal immigration down with him being in office less than two weeks, and Trump didn’t need even one new law to do it.
The Democrats, and Biden could have done the same thing, they just didn’t want to. They wanted as many illegal aliens invading our country as possible. One has to wonder why the Democrats thought this was a good idea. The only logical reason for them doing this is they thought it would somehow add to their political power. Instead, it is one of the reasons Trump is now president.
Trump has deported 9,000 illegal aliens as of this morning. Most of them are hardened criminals who won’t be committing their crimes in the United States now, thanks to Donald Trump.
The hidden story behind the illegal immigration crisis is the plethora of NGOs receiving US govt. funding, which then turn around and distribute said funds to the cartels through their traffickees! Look for the Trump Admin to start targeting these groups for conspiracy and fraud!
Yes, there needs to be a big investigation of all these NGO’s.
The Biden administration was getting NGO’s to do things for him that the federal government was not legally able to do, so Biden and the Democrats used NGO’s to make an end-run around the laws. And the NGO’s went right along with it because there is a LOT of money in it for them.
Some of these NGO’s are enabling the trafficking of women and children inside the United States. Those doing so should go to jail.
Soros has a finger in all this?
One of his appendages.
Soros is funding the Democrats, so yes, at least indirectly.
Extermination of NGOs would be better. Their effects are far worse than of Hamas and ISIS
Trump’s Border Czar, Tom Homan, said this morning that illegal immigration was down by 93 percent since Trump took over. Homan said it was even lower than during Trump’s first term.
Biden doesn’t even look Manchurian.
Worst President Evah!
Most Dangerous, Destructive President Evah!
Biden had to pardon his whole family!
There is another possible reason why Biden might have wanted the southern border to be wide open. Maybe he was being blackmailed by the Mexican drug cartels.
As you know, Biden’s son Hunter was a drug addict. And heroin isn’t cheap. Perhaps his son Hunter was deep in debt to the Mexican drug cartels as a result of his heroin addiction, and perhaps the cartels offered to forgive the debt if the border was opened up. The money the Mexican drug cartels would make through drug trafficking and from human trafficking across an open border would be orders of magnitude higher than Hunter’s possible heroin debt. This is just sheer speculation.
An open border with a narco state like Mexico just doesn’t make any sense.
Interesting hypothesis.
Yes. However I doubt it was actually Biden in control. The only one left with this motivation would be Dr Jill.
“An open border with a narco state…doesn’t make any sense.”
You, sir, are suffering from an insufficiency of imagination as to the depths to which the Marxist’s mind can go! To the committed Marxist, increased chaos and criminality are blessings to be bestowed liberally on the populace as it makes them more amenable to finally accepting the future Utopia as an improvement! If they have to import a few million extra criminal murderers and rapists in the mean time, it is just desserts for those who bitterly cling to outmoded capitalist tropes like freedom and prosperity!
Besides, the CIA would never let their pet attack dogs blackmail members of the Biden Crime family; that’s the kind of job that offers the rewards and influence preserved for top level management only!!
Interesting hypothesis. It could, however, use a bit of evidence.
I also infer that you don’t have much knowledge of the retail-level heroin market.
Sounds like the start of a good Hollywood thriller. I have long subscribed to the idea that the point of gun control was for politicians to give the impression of doing something about crime, in order to get re-elected, without doing anything to actually disrupt drug trafficking and thereby continue to skim off the profits.
I can’t imagine that Hunter was dealing directly with Cartels. Or that he would be using enough drugs for them to care. Small fish.
I speaks to the intelligence of typical democrats.
Memory faintly recalls a quotation to the effect that difficulties understanding thermodynamics exist because it was discovered two centuries ahead of schedule. No better evidenced today than by the current obsession with reductionist interpretations, no matter pro or con, for carbon dioxide. Why one may move from a gazillion p’s and q’s of classical mechanics, through a chaotic phase space, to emerge with reproducible macroscopic states dependent on but a handful of parameters challenges contemporary comprehension. Philosophically minded folks may find muse-worthy:
Twenty-first-century theoretical physics is coming out of the chaos revolution. It will be about complexity and its principal tool will be the computer. Its final expression remains to be found. Thermodynamics, as a vital part of theoretical physics, will partake in the transformation.
https://necsi.edu/chaos-complexity-and-entropy
But, first and foremost, the story of the Second Law is the story of a great intellectual achievement of the mid-19th century. It’s exciting now, of course, to be able to use the latest 21st-century ideas to take another step. But to appreciate how this fits in with what’s already known we have to go back and study the history of what originally led to the Second Law, and how what emerged as conventional wisdom about it took shape.
https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2023/02/computational-foundations-for-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics/
PROPOSED: The Thermodynamic State shall be defined by path-independence. Neither past nor future states may be derived from the present?
Who will join me in calling for President Trump to be nominated for an Oscar or an Emmy as best comedic actor of 2025!? Zelensky had a lock on the prize, but recent developments indicate his show may not be renewed this year. He’ll have to settle for the title of World’s Highest Paid Actor!
And yet everyone now appears to have changed their minds about Trump…
Mandelson U-turn as he admits he was ‘wrong’ to call Trump ‘danger to world’ – MSM etc
Trump has the majority of Americans on his side now, and that makes a difference to politicians. Even to American Democrat politicians.
“Trump has the majority of Americans on his side now”
Not quite, although relative to his past favourability it is high.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
But that is also common for newly elected presidents. Biden was much higher at the same time
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
You are also right about Trump being funny. I had to laugh when he said he should get the credit for the Middle East cease fire (which happened on Biden’s watch), but then said the Washington plane crash was all Biden’s fault (which happened on his watch).
The middle East cease fire only became a reality once Trump was elected and started letting Hamas know what they could expect to happen if they didn’t start to comply..
The Washington crash is indicative of one of the many things wrong with personnel levels and ability that Trump has not had the chance to correct yet. Only one controller, rather than the usual two, was handling the local plane and helicopter traffic on Wednesday night. General FAA staffing levels and ability have been let fall too low due to hiring policies.. Control systems need upgrading.
Military aircraft was flying too high, way above its limit.. why?
All the principal actors in the Middle East are giving Trump credit for the hostage releases.
The negotiations between Biden and the terrorists were going nowhere until Trump threatened the terrorists. All of a sudden, things started moving.
Trump blew up some ISIS terrorists in Yemen the other day. I think he wanted to establish his intentions with terrorists worldwide, and other bad actors. Mess with Trump and he will blow you up.
Trump meets with Netanyahu today. Trump has already started sending 2,000 pound bombs to Israel. Biden withheld these weapons from Israel. These 2,000 pound bombs will come in real handy when Israel takes out the nuclear production facilities of the Mad Mullahs of Iran in the near future.
I think Trump is going to give the Mad Mullahs a chance to hand over the enriched uranium they have produced, but if they don’t, then the Mad Mullahs can expect to see a lot of bombers over their territory. One bomb might even land on their house. Trump and Netanyahu know where they live.
I think it is a stretch to imply Trump was responsible, but I listen to a balanced view on the news and it is true he deserves some credit. I could handle it is he said something like “outgoing president Joe Biden deserves some credit for this deal, but it wouldn’t have happened without my help.” It is just so funny how it is classic Trump play book…. take all the credit for all the good stuff and blame others for the bad. His handling of covid the best possible example.
Trump is a natural comedian, mainly by telling the truth. I look at how Democrats react to him and that makes me laugh. They are SO predictable, and Trump takes great pleasure in egging them on. And they respond in typical TDS fashion.
I’m not sure that’s how you meant it, though.
I don’t care for his rhetoric sometimes, but I have a sneaking feeling he may go down as one of the most effective US leaders in recent history; and I think he might be the most fun to have a beer or party with; although he’d have to the designated driver, since he doesn’t drink!
I was hoping to encourage a little discussion of President Trump’s policies, most of which I heartily approve of. I was trying to emulate the confrontational style of Richard Greene, but I guess a lot of you thought that I was just being a Dick!
lol…I think Trump is hilarious. But I enjoy his clever jabs at his adversaries. “Low energy” Jeb has got to be his best. Drove Barbara batty.
That *was* funny! 🙂 Trump has a knack for picking nicknames that fit the personality of the person he is talking about.
But they are not particularly clever Tom are they? And I don’t know about you but nick names are a bit childish don’t you think? I mean if you are the leader of the free world, do you think calling people names is appropriate?
You’re no fun, Simon! 🙂
Haha. See this is why I think you are a good man (I just don’t agree with your views).
We do have a lot of role models here. 🙂
Say what you want about me AS LONG AS YOU SPELL MY NAME RIGHT:
GREENE.
https://www.upu.int/en/home
postal rates for “developing nations” are set lower than “developed” nations .
So anything mailed to USA by China gets shipped at a loss to USPS AND OUR DOMESTIC RATES ARE RAISED TO COVER THAT LOSS .
An executive order is set to change this .
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/02/02/the-secret-tariff-code-is-buried-in-section-2-item-h-of-the-executive-order/
State of Maine
The over-taxed, over-regulated, already-impoverished Maine people are super-screwed, trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real growth Maine economy
The Maine economy has lots of low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit, bs jobs
The Maine economy has lots of woke, leftist bureaucrats
Screwed-over Mainers also have to pay for poverty-stricken, aliens of different cultures from all over, who illegally enter the US, a federal felony
.
Those illegal aliens:
– are the dregs of Third World countries, sent by to Maine by their US-hating, leftist, woke governments, in cahoots with Soros-financed NGOs
– are getting free housing, free food, a never-empty credit card, free healthcare, free education and whatever other goodies they want. They mainly suck of the government tit
– have no skills, no training, no education, no modern industrial experience.
– will take low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit jobs away from screwed-over Mainers.
– are often good at crime, murder, rape and mayhem.
.
Many millions of illegal aliens have to be shipped back where they came from, before they ruin the US.
.
Down-trodden Mainers often have to put up with the visual ugliness and noise of hundreds of windmills, that are often idle, because of too little wind year-round, and many thousands of acres of solar panels, that are often covered with snow and ice in winter; there is no solar at night.
.
MAGA will lead to higher CO2 ppm to 1) increase growth of flora and fauna all over the world, and to 2) increase crop yields to feed hungry people. What is not to like?
Maine should join Canada as the 11th province. Sounds practically the same.
NEW ENGLAND 100% WIND AND SOLAR?
New England would need a minimum of 10 TWh of DELIVERABLE electricity from batteries to the HV grid, and a sufficient capacity, MW, of wind and solar systems to serve demand 24/7/365
.
Batteries would supplement wind and solar, as needed, 24/7/365
Wind and solar would charge excess output into the batteries, 24/7/365
.
Tesla recommends not charging to more than 80% full and not discharging to less than 20% full, to achieve normal life of 15 years and normal aging at 1.5%/y.
.
The INSTALLED battery capacity would need to be at least 10 TWh / (0.6, Tesla factor x aging factor x 0.9, outage factor) = 18.5 TWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet.
.
The turnkey cost would be about $600/installed kWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet, 2024 pricing, or $600/kWh x 18.5 billion kWh = $11.1 billion, about every 15 years.
.
THE ANNUAL ACHIEVABLE THROUGHPUT IN REAL LIFE IS AT MOST 40%
At 40% throughput, the cost of sending electricity through the batteries is about 38 c/kWh, 2024 pricing
.
This is on top of the cost of wind and solar going through the battery.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
Wilpost:
And they would replacing the wind turbines on a similar ~15 year schedule as well.
Regarding your “The turnkey cost…”
[$600/KWH] x 18.5 billion KWh = $600 x 18.5 billion = 11.1 Trillion dollars [not Billion]
Am I missing something?
High Costs/kWh of Wind and Solar Foisted onto a Brainwashed Public
.
The three main subsidies are:
Federal and state tax credits and cash grants,
5-y Accelerated Depreciation write off of the entire project
Deduction of interest of borrowed money
.
The effect of the three items is to reduce the owning and operating cost of a project by 50%, which means electricity be sold at 50% less than it costs to produce.
Utilities pay 15 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from fixedoffshore wind systems
Utilities pay 18 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from floating offshore wind
Utilities pay 12 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from larger solar systems
.
Excluded costs, at a future 30% W/S annual penetration on the grid, the current UK level:
– Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement, about 2 c/kWh
– Traditional power plants quickly counteracting W/S variable output, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, about 2 c/kWh
– Traditional power plants providing electricity during 1) low-wind periods, 2) high-wind periods, when rotors are locked in place, and 3) low solar periods during mornings, evenings and at night, about 2 c/kWh
– W/S electricity that could have been produced, if not curtailed, about 1 c/kWh
– Importing electricity at high prices, when W/S output is low, 1 c/kWh
– Exporting electricity at low prices, when W/S output is high, 1 c/kWh
– Disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites, about 2 c/kWh
Some of these values exponentially increase as more wind and solar systems are added to the grid
.
The economic/financial insanity and environmental damage of it all is off the charts.
No wonder Europe’s near-zero, real-growth economy is in such big do-do
Fresh off of his four year+ tour with ANTIFA and other Leftist misfits, David “Macho Man” Hogg has finally found his place in the Democratic Party.
Hide your guns…..
Like one commenter said: The Democrat Party is doubling down on stupid!
The leaders of the Democrat Party think Kamala Harris lost the presidential race because of racism. That’s where their heads are. Completely out to lunch. Completely out of touch with the average American and with reality. Let’s hope they stay that way, and fade into history.
As long as women insist that men purchase the bright shiny objects known as diamonds to present to them as proof of their prowess, there can never be a net zero level achieved for carbon.
A quick check of all politicians wives necks, ears and fingers at public ceremonies shows that to be true in all cases.
A great vasectomy joke on a great Virginia political blog:
https://www.baconsrebellion.com/jeanines-memes-161/
I just heard Trump give an impromptu press conference on the way to his helicopter, and he was talking tough about imposing tariffs on nations that are treating the United States unfairly, and he singled out the UK and Europe and told us how we had a $350 billion yearly trade deficit with the UK and Europe and something had to be done about it.
What caught my attention was Trump’s take on the UK. Trump said the problems with the UK were not bad and could probably be worked out. So it appears there is a possibility that Trump may not impose tariffs on the UK.
But Trump is definitely going to impose tariffs on Europe.
I guess Trump is going to impose tariffs on every nation that has a trade surplus with the United States. He wants to get the U.S. deficits closer to zero.
It sounds reasonable to me.
A Mexican guy mows my grass, trims my hedges, pressure washes my driveway and windows. I have a trade deficit with him. I’m thinking that telling him I’m going to charge him a tariff to balance that deficit might be a bad idea for me.
Uh I am not sure if anyone looked at RealClimate recently, but S. Rahmstorf blogged quite a jewel this week:
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/01/the-amoc-is-slowing-its-stable-its-slowing-no-yes/#comments
in defense of his “the AMOC is weakening” idea..
“In the North Atlantic, the historic runs of CMIP6 models on average do not reproduce the ‘cold blob’ despite this being such a striking feature of the observational data,[..] Thus I consider CMIP6 models as less suited to test how well the ‘cold blob’ works as AMOC indicator than the CMIP5 models.”
Somebody needs to tell him that CMIP5 models are just bad copies of CMIP6 models with lower resolution and bad cloud physics!
!!! Here is the important part !!!
If he cannot find his wanted pattern in the newer and better models, it is about time to man up and correct his old papers!
Rahmstorf was one of the six initial agitators forcing the retraction of Alimonti´s paper, which did not contain such scientific blunders, surely his firm stand on questionable science MUST lead to a retraction of his papers which seems to be based just on modeling artifacts as he describes himself in his blog article!
(BTW this is similarly true for all the other CMIP5 based findings, in an honest scientific field that climate sensitivity correction of about 25% should cause a shock-wave of retrackted old papers!)
Has anyone else noticed that perplexity.ai seems to have changed its interface? Now you are very limited in what you can ask it, to a series of multiple choices, and your followup questions seem similarly limited.
Or is this just me? If its general it will be a pity, an end to what has been a genuinely useful, if imperfect, tool.
If you haven’t heard this news yet I’m pretty sure you soon will!
Elon Musk Shuts Down US Government Foreign Aid Agency and Locks Out 600 Staffers Overnight After Trump Agreed it Was “Beyond Repair”