Overview
Solar Cycle 25 is nearing its solar maximum and – as is typical during this phase of a solar cycle – there has been a lot of solar activity in recent weeks with numerous sunspots. The strongest solar flare yet during this current solar cycle took place earlier today with an explosion originating from sunspot region known officially as “AR3842”. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded today’s blast as an X9.0 (where X-class denotes the most intense flares) and it may result in widespread auroras this weekend as the “coronal mass ejection” strikes Earth.
Details
Solar flares are powerful bursts of energy which can impact radio communications, electric power grids, navigation signals and pose risks to spacecraft and astronauts. Today’s solar flare – the strongest yet for Solar Cycle 25 – peaked at 8:18 AM (ET) and was captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory as a bright flash. Today’s flare is classified as an X9.0 flare where X-class denotes the most intense type.
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere according to spaceweather.com triggering shortwave radio blackouts over Africa and Europe, the sunlit portion of Earth at the time of eruption. The shortwave radio blackouts experienced over Europe and Africa were a result of the radiation from the solar flare reaching Earth and ionizing the upper atmosphere upon arrival. This ionization creates a denser environment for high-frequency shortwave radio signals, which facilitate long-distance communication, to travel through. As these radio waves pass through ionized (electrically charged) layers, they lose energy due to increased collisions with electrons which can weaken or entirely absorb the radio signals.
Preliminary coronagraph images show a “halo” coronal mass ejection or CME – a plume of plasma and magnetic field – emerging from the blast site which is likely to strike the Earth on Sunday, October 6th. As a result, auroras are on the table this weekend in the usual northern latitude areas and potentially farther to the south compared to normal. A couple of days ago on October 1st, there was an X7.1 class solar flare that originated from the same sunspot region and its associated CME is closing in on Earth and likely to arrive by tomorrow, October 4th, potentially causing a strong geomagnetic storm.
This uptick in solar activity during the past several weeks comes as Solar Cycle 25 near its maximum phase which is likely to be reached sometime in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began during December of 2019 and is expected to continue until around 2030. The cycle is characterized by the sun’s transition from a relatively calm state to one that is active and then back to quiet again…often over about an 11-year time period. There has not been a single day in 2024 or 2023 that featured a spotless sun and only one such day took place in 2022. During the last solar minimum phase in 2019, there were 281 spotless days which made up 77% of the year.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pro
Track your potential for viewing aurora at the above link. If anything like this past May, and weather permitting it could be quite the experience!
Regards,
MCR
Correction: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products
I am not a fan of Android copy/paste functionality.
Sayonara,
MCR
Add “/aurora-viewline-tonight-and-tomorrow-night-experimental” to the end of that link for the two day forecast. Otherwise, the only other product is a 30 minute heads up.
Many thanks for the heads up!
Trump’s fault, … obviously.
/sarc
CO2 made the sun explode!
/sarc
What is the relationship between the solar flare, primarily radiation, and the CME, or mass ejection? Can you have a very large flare like this, and a relatively smaller CME?
Solar flares generally create two kinds of emissions, radiation and particles.
The radiation is in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and x-ray spectrum and travels at the speed of light, so will reach Earth in about 8 minutes after the flare (which can last from minutes to hours). The radiation is completely absorbed by the atmosphere in the ionosphere, so will not reach the surface. But it increases the ionization of the upper atmosphere, potentially disrupting radio communications. The radiation can also interact with the Earth’s magnetic field and cause induction of electrical currents in long power transmission lines on the surface, which can disrupt power distribution and even destroy power line components from the overload.
The particles from the flare (CME) consist of mostly protons and alpha particles which leave the Sun in directional bursts, which contribute to the solar wind. They travel much more slowly than light and take several days to reach Earth (if the burst is directed towards the Earth).
There were actually two solar flares which occurred, both directed at the Earth. The X9 flare happened on 3 Oct and another X7.1 flare occurred on 1 Oct. The particles from the 1 Oct flare will arrive tonight (4Oct) and the X9 emission is expected over the weekend.
When they arrive, the solar wind from these flares will interact with the Earth’s magnetic field, which will drive them poleward, where they will impact the atmosphere and ‘precipitate’ downward as aurora and Northern lights in the higher latitudes.
https://www.solarham.com/
https://www.solarham.com/solarwind.htm
Energy from the sun has no effect on climate. Just ask the modellers!
Energy is energy and this will have its affects.
X-class denotes the most intense type
The classes are further subdivide with ratings of 1 to 10 with 10 being the most intense within its class.
X9.0 is pretty awesome.
with 10 being the most intense
Except for X-class which don’t have a maximum. There was an X-17+ flare in 2003 (17 being where the monitors topped out), both it and the Carrington flare were estimated at X45
(Not to diminish the X-9)