We recently implemented a new model for forecasting crude oil and natural gas production from the U.S. Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In our latest outlook, we forecast that GOM production will remain relatively flat with new fields offsetting the natural production declines from existing fields.
We forecast that 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil will be produced in the GOM in 2024 and 1.9 million b/d in 2025, compared with 1.9 million b/d in 2023. We expect GOM natural gas production to average 1.8 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) in both 2024 and 2025, compared with 2.0 Bcf/d in 2023. At these volumes, the GOM would contribute about 14% of U.S. oil production and 2% of U.S. marketed natural gas production.
We expect 12 new fields to start production in the GOM during 2024 and 2025, without which we would expect GOM production to decline. Seven of these fields will be developed using subsea tiebacks, or underwater extensions from existing Floating Production Units (FPUs) at the surface. We expect four new FPUs, which would produce crude oil and natural gas from five more fields. We expect that fields that have already started in 2024 will contribute 22,000 b/d of crude oil production in 2024, and fields that will start production in 2024 or 2025 will contribute 231,000 b/d on average in 2025 as additional production comes online and ramps up.
Assuming the industry prevails in court, Gulf of Mexico oil production will average 1.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2025. This will be the result of a dozen recent deepwater discoveries being brough online.
We expect 12 new fields to start production in the GOM during 2024 and 2025. Seven fields will be developed using subsea tiebacks, or underwater extensions to existing FPUs at the surface. Five fields will produce from four new FPUs, with one of the new FPUs (Salamanca FPU) targeting production from two fields. We expect that fields starting in 2024 will contribute 22,000 b/d of crude oil production in 2024 and fields that start production in 2024 or 2025 will contribute 231,000 b/d in 2025 as additional production comes online and ramps up.
The Gulf of Mexico was once a huge gas play back when natural gas was >$8/mcf. Today, most of the production is associated natural gas. The typical Gulf of Mexico oil well produces 1 million cubic feet (mmcf) per 1,000 bbl of oil.
Developing an oil field is a fairly long term affair, so the actions of the current administration have had little effect yet on production. But continuing with the current regime will have effects, long term.
While we have shortened the cycle from drilling to production of a deepwater well, it takes 2-3 years for a subsea tieback. If it entails a floating production unit or fixed structure, the timeline is 5-10 years.
If the current ruling regarding the NMFS biological opinion isn’t stayed or reversed. Let’s Go Brandon could be leaving office with a total shutdown of Gulf of Mexico oil production as a parting “gift.”
These were Trump policies that Biden and Harris will want you to believe were their’s. What the economy does not need is higher energy costs which translates in higher PPI followed by higher CPI followed by a huge hole in my pocketbook. Harris cannot bring herself to admit she has no plan whatsoever to bring down inflation. It’s not the advertised CPI that is being reported, it’s closer to 20% and much more on selective consumer goods.
Yes. She has one original thought. Price gouging of groceries!
A law degree does not require coursework in economics, apparently.
Rud Istvan
September 20, 2024 2:37 pm
Neat trick.
First declare Rice’s whales a new species when they likely aren’t.
Then declare them critically endangered even tho nobody knows how many of the ‘new species’ there are.
Then get a Maryland judge who knows nothing to say the new NMFS ruling wasn’t good enough.
Just another Biden thing for Trump to fix come Jan 20, 2025. Long to do list.
The greater threat to “Rice’s whales” is obviously offshore wind. Where’s the advocate who will go right to the same judge and file an appropriate lawsuit?
Assuming Republicans take the Senate and hold the House… amend the relevant legislation… and appoint judges who will rule that Enviromarxist NGO’s lack standing to file lawsuits on behalf of whales, snails and puppy dog tails…😎
Developing an oil field is a fairly long term affair, so the actions of the current administration have had little effect yet on production. But continuing with the current regime will have effects, long term.
While we have shortened the cycle from drilling to production of a deepwater well, it takes 2-3 years for a subsea tieback. If it entails a floating production unit or fixed structure, the timeline is 5-10 years.
If the current ruling regarding the NMFS biological opinion isn’t stayed or reversed. Let’s Go Brandon could be leaving office with a total shutdown of Gulf of Mexico oil production as a parting “gift.”
These were Trump policies that Biden and Harris will want you to believe were their’s. What the economy does not need is higher energy costs which translates in higher PPI followed by higher CPI followed by a huge hole in my pocketbook. Harris cannot bring herself to admit she has no plan whatsoever to bring down inflation. It’s not the advertised CPI that is being reported, it’s closer to 20% and much more on selective consumer goods.
Isn’t that what the Inflation Reduction Act is meant to do?
(/sarc if needed)
When asked her answers make it clear that she does indeed have a plan.
Better lawn care for all.
You can be sure the Harris administration won’t ban fracking, they will just regulate it heavily until the oil companies give up.
Yes, Harris has plans. Vote Harris to find out what’s in her plans!
Harris’ plans are contained in the Democrat National Committee political platform.
https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024_Democratic_Party_Platform_8a2cf8.pdf
Basically, to save you the trouble of reading the wordsalad, it says: “We are not Trump, life isn’t fair enough and the wealthy should pay more tax.”
Do not expect anything different from Kamala Harris. She has never had an original thought yet.
Has she had a thought at all? Original or otherwise?
Yes. She has one original thought. Price gouging of groceries!
A law degree does not require coursework in economics, apparently.
Neat trick.
First declare Rice’s whales a new species when they likely aren’t.
Then declare them critically endangered even tho nobody knows how many of the ‘new species’ there are.
Then get a Maryland judge who knows nothing to say the new NMFS ruling wasn’t good enough.
Just another Biden thing for Trump to fix come Jan 20, 2025. Long to do list.
The greater threat to “Rice’s whales” is obviously offshore wind. Where’s the advocate who will go right to the same judge and file an appropriate lawsuit?
The Gulf of Mexico basically has two types of wind: 1) None and 2) hurricanes.
With a fictionally endangered species, an ignorant judge, and an imaginary crisis, what does geography matter?
Slightly more seriously, so what? Virginia and Maryland, I’ve heard, have equally clueless judges.
Is the main defendant Mother Nature?
How could Trump fix this ruling?
Assuming Republicans take the Senate and hold the House… amend the relevant legislation… and appoint judges who will rule that Enviromarxist NGO’s lack standing to file lawsuits on behalf of whales, snails and puppy dog tails…😎
I like the Games of Throne reference with Winterfell.
There are quite a few naming themes.
Sunspear is also inspired by Game of Thrones.
https://x.com/MrReaganUSA/status/1816826660089733492