Brief News Note by Kip Hansen — 9 September 2024
Just in time to beat the “hurricane season peak deadline”, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center declared the Potential Tropical Storm Six to be Tropical Storm Francine:
10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9
Location: 23.0°N 94.9°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
From the Discussion section:
“Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this
morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70
to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance
Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a
cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near
the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough
evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC
Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of
45 kt this advisory.
The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently
formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4
kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered
over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its
northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little
eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again
nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference
between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of
Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent
amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing
along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.
While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field
per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing
stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after
an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone’s
vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant
intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,
high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface
temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are
pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48
h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast
RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in
48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After
that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases
from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it
approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system
is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,
but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models.
Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm
Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border.”
Thus, for the season to date we now have this:
# # # # #
Author’s Comment:
Compared to the historical record, the 2024 Hurricane season is running at a little less than 50%.
The Two-Day and Seven-Day forecasts show a couple of things in the pipeline – which may develop into tropical storms.
And that’s the news.
# # # # #
Whatever happens is due to global warming! Rather few tropical storms, a lot of tropical storms, it is all due to global warming!! Be very afraid!!!
Tom, and everyone, let me explain how global..err…climate change works, it makes the earth hotter, and colder, and more hurricanes, and fewer, and wetter, and drier, and floods, and drought, and feast, and famine, and…etc!
J Boles. You left off “… and we’re all going to die.”, but otherwise you seem to have summed it up pretty well.
we’re all going to die except we’re all going to live and prosper
Maybe by Sunday Milwaukee will see some rain out of it.
Steve ==> You need rain up there? I’ve got moss growing on the driveway here in Central Hudson Valley of NY. Just keeps raining….
Sprinkler is going on the front lawn as we “speak” The native greenery is doing fine including the tall blue lettuce that volunteered in the back yard which is now 10 feet tall.
Steve ==> Had to look that one up — recognize that nasty tall weed, we have it here too.
Nasty?? Curiosity is more like it. Now teasel is a different story. It’s a nasty spiny invasive weed that during the past decade or so has really taken over road side weed patches.
Presumably it came from Europe?
It has a long history of use in textiles, the head used as a natural comb for producing teased wool. Replaced by metal cards in the 19th and 20th century, although still used by traditional weavers.
I spot sprayed my front lawn for crabgrass and other weeds.
Now it’s all (almost) a uniform brown.
I feel your pain.
Storm surge is gonna be a problem. The forecast track is right across Vermillion Bay, with up to 10 feet predicted if intensification reaches low end Cat 2 as currently expected at landfall.
that forecast is already inaccurate. high level shear is reducing strength. it is currently unlikley to even reach Cat 1 status. that so called 10 foot is never going to happen.
Rud and Dave ==> As of 10 am CDT, NHC said this:
“Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a
possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the
intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to
rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise
favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the
latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt
between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to
stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after
landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine
dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that
scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.”
Time will tell…
Yup. The cone of uncertainty is unusually narrow, so Vermillion Bay is in the crosshairs.
How can there be uncertainty? Model are perfect!
/s
The model runs are already starting to push the storm track to the east.
There are also several factors that are weakly affecting the storm. In my experience, that means there is a chance that the models will whiff significantly.
If I lived in the immediate area, I would keep an eye on this one and check the forecast track first thing tomorrow morning!
Is that a typical place for a storm to start?
Kevin ==> You can do a detailed search at
https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80
It is not uncommon for Gulf of Mexico tropical storms to originate in the western Carribean.
Good site, thanks KH
Story tip:
Culling the elderly- pensioners can do their bit for Keir
Ed [Miliband] is close personal friend of the prime minister and a key part of the elimination strategy.
https://order-order.com/2024/09/10/culling-the-elderly-at-last-pensioners-can-do-their-bit-for-keir/
Cold kills…
Cull Keir.. Cull Millibrain. !
Story tip – Biden-Harris Administration Rushes to Spend Billions on Climate Programs › American Greatness (amgreatness.com)
Coming up to the end of the fiscal year. Spend it or lose it on Oct. 1.
Colorado State University’s tropical storm data center shows that despite the usual climate alarmist Atlantic Hurricane season hype the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing only about 2/3rds of the 30 year average ACE at this time. The Pacific Ocean Northeast and Northwest regions which dwarf the Atlantic region are driving this Northern Hemisphere outcome that is studiously ignored and concealed by the climate science incompetent mainstream alarmist media.
Larry ==> Klotzbach et al. were still calling for an above average season as of 3 September, issuing
“DISCUSSION OF 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO DATE AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THE SEASON” [pdf].
“We still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September.”
Bastardi and really all the others have missed this hurricane season’s forecast. Using like prior season setups to forecast the current season generally gives a reasonably accurate forecast but this year has been a fizzle so far. We still have basically 6 weeks to go but after this one, even the GFS has nothing 14 days out. Rumblings of one off the western end of Cuba at the end of September, but that’s it to date. As the season goes on, most hurricanes make landfall in Mexico or even farther south although the east US coast can get hammered in October now and then. Nor’Easters are also an October possibility.
rbabcock ==> See above reply to Larry Hamlin. Klotzbach at al. still calling for an above-normal season as of a week ago.
Historically, there have been plenty of hurricanes in September.
The 7-Day Atlantic Outlook has one wave pegged at at 80% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression within seven days.
I would wager that TD won’t form by this time next week. It’s about to enter a mass of dry, dusty air, and it won’t hit water warm enough for TS development until a third of the way to Florida. Conditions are terrible for storm development even before looking at wind sheer possibilities.
The GFS has nothing until later in the month.. one forming south of Pensacola.
The Euro has one spinning up due south of Morehead City Sept 16, landfall Sept 17, right over my house Sept 18 and dissipating Sept 19. Short lived and not that strong. Certainly not a plethora of these. Maybe October will be one to remember.
rbabcock ==> You’re in Morehead City? Spent a late summer and fall there rebuilding the keels of our boat at Ted and Todd’s boatyard, just south of the old Beaufort Bridge. Love the area. Got hit by Irene there — scooted up the ICW a few miles to a little flagpole shaped marina and spiderwebbed ourselves in the turning basin. Very comfortable (and a bit scary).
Part of the late and slow 2024 hurricane season is Tonga’s suppression of La Nina … which is still a La Nada.
John ==> Whatever the cause, La Niña is taking her time arriving. Forecats are for September
-October but we are still in El Niño neutral.
There is a lot of talk about possible effects of Hunga Tonga — both directly on hurricane genisis and on the general climate, which would include ENSO.
. . . and in scientific circles, those are still categorized as possible effects.
Francine’s storm track needs to move to the West about 100 miles or so. We need some of it’s rain around here.
Been watching this one on Nullschool, wind speeds were less than 50kts this morning, just rechecked, showing less than 40 kph, 74kph in the wall.
Nansar07 ==> Hadn’t seen Nullschool before : https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=265.02,22.52,234
Too many negatives this season for it to be above normal. Just to add one more to the list, an Atlantic La Nina. Ocean temperatures have crashed. Francine is in 89 F gulf waters and the forecast currently shows peak winds before landfall will be 90 mph (80 kn). Water temps in the Cape Verde area is in the upper 70s, lower 80s. Halfway across the Atlantic temps do not reach above 81 degrees. Then there’s the dust…This year’s forecast will be Gone Without the Wind.
The upper low is over the Great Lakes, and there is a high in the southwest that pulls a tropical wave over Florida into Louisiana. This promises very heavy rainfall in the south.
https://www.accuweather.com/pl/us/new-orleans/70112/weather-radar/348585
Once ashore, the hurricane will move along the Mississippi River and what increases instability in the atmosphere.
Once ashore, the hurricane will move along the Mississippi River and what increases instability in the atmosphere.