Policy makers are never told how much methane will run-up global temperature.
Given that atmospheric methane is increasing about 7 parts per billion every year, policy makers need to know what the effect of that will be.
So, fill in the blank:
By 2100 methane is projected to increase global temperature by___ degrees Celsius.
To double the amount of methane in the atmosphere requires twice as many cattle, termites, swamps, oil and gas production, rice paddies, pine forests emitting turpenes, ocean seeps, leaky coal beds, twice as much of every present emitter….realistically it’s just not going to happen….and if it did, still a minor temp increase….
Wow, just exposed myself to reading “atmospheric methane” on Wikipedia. Very carefully crafted verbiage never showing the absorption bands, emphasis on Global Warming Potential instead of molecular cross section, and regarding lifetime is “less persistent” than CO2 so it’s GWP drops to 28 x as bad as CO2 after a century. This writeup is way beyond the average politician’s ability to comprehend, much less be able to critique and apply to practical regulations.
It might be worse than that, DMacK. There is a real possibility that the rate of removal by methanotrophic bacteria will increase with an increased concentration.
+0.11203 degrees C. +/- 0.1 degree C.
With 105% confidence
Unprecedented
Worse then previously thought
Only possible solution is to ban the production and consumption of baked beans.
+0.11203 degrees C. +/- 0.1 degree C ________________________________________________________
Looks like an honest stab at it to me. I get perhaps as much as much 0.04 Celsius degrees which is unmeasurable.
Dale Cloudman
August 4, 2024 2:56 am
I want to revisit the idea of adiabatic compression being responsible for warmer surface temperatures than expected without an atmosphere.
The largest critique against this idea is that the compression would offer a “one-time” heating, and not be responsible for a _constant_ increase in surface temp above the expected blackbody one.
My counter is: the grand canyon is **constantly** 10C warmer at the bottom than the top. This is universally accepted to be because of the adiabatic compression. If it is responsible for this *constantly* higher temperature of 10C at the bottom vs top of the grand canyon, why can this not also be responsible for the Earth’s surface temp?
The Grand Canyon is about a mile below sea level. Since the air is much denser, it can hold much more heat. This dense air acts as an insulation which keeps the heat from escaping.
Open oceans limit the surface temperature. With the present atmospheric mass, the temperature is limited to 30C. It is a very powerful negative feedback. The lowest temperature for open ocean water is -1.7C. So the average will be somewhere in between. Oceans give up heat to land through advection so are warmed by the oceans on average.
Elevated land is colder than the oceans because the ground pressure is lower. Dry land lower than the ocean level is warmer because the ground pressure is higher.
The ocean sustainable limit of 30C has slight sensitivity to air pressure but it is not the same as the lapse rate. The Cretaceous period had atmospheric pressure around 1150hPa. That would increase the sustainable temperature bu 3C; so 33C rather than 30C.
The 30C limit has been known for a long time and was an active area of research before the IPCC needed CO2 to become the climate control knob and railroaded those working on real science. It is now difficult to find the early publications on this observation.
Every day, somewhere on the globe open ocean water is regulating to 30C. The convective potential that causes the cyclic instability is ubiquitous across the tropical oceans: CAPE is currently high in the Gulf of Mexico: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=cape/orthographic=-85.35,13.74,390
And building in the Mediterranean. The Mediterranean is large enough to support convective storms. The Med has a current temperature anomaly of plus 3C so there will be some big storms this year.
The Persian Gulf and Red Sae are too small to support cyclic convective instability so they do get substantially above 30C in August.
Rick,
This is excellent observation of an effect that is, IMO, under-appreciated. It is measurable and it is capable of interpretation as you have done. It has to be regarded alongside other mechanisms that are the hodge-podge of the poor science behind Establishment global warming preferences.
I wish you well with its increasing prominence.
Geoff S.
Rapid evaporation in the tropics causes air and WV to rise, and nearby air to fill in the “vacuum”, which causes surface winds, which ripple the surface, which causes more evaporation, which causes more wind, and ripples become waves, which causes more evaporation until the 30 C limit is reached. This is a mechanically-induced process.
This takes place during El Niños
The latest El Niño was reinforced by the Hung-Tonga underwater eruption which threw 140 million metric ton of water vapor into the upper troposphere and stratosphere, where normally is not much WV.
That WV is a greenhouse gas which warms the atmosphere, enabling it to hold even more water, which makes the atmosphere even warmer!
It will take some time, say two to three years, for the unusual situation to unwind itself, so things get back to more normal temperatures
Of course, by that time some other event may happen.
Back in the 90’s I spent a week working in Jordan, on our rest day we went to Mount Nebo, 700 metres above sea level. It was quite chilly as you would expect due to altitude. We proceeded down towards the Dead Sea 430 metres below sea level and the temperature rose significantly. The temperature at Mt Nebo would be about 4.5 degrees Celsius cooler than sea level, whilst Dead Sea would be about 3 degrees warmer than sea level, based on standard lapse rate of 6.5 degrees Celsius per 1000 metres change in altitude. However, bearing in mind this was 30 years ago, I seem to recall it was more than 7.5 degrees Celsius increase, closer to 10 or 12.
The lapse rate explains why lower altitudes are warmer than higher altitudes, it does not explain why the base temperature is what it is. You could have a planet with a much colder surface temperature that still has a lapse rate, or a much warmer surface temperature. The earth without a GHE could still have a lapse rate, the surface air would just be much colder than the 288 K we observe (about 255 K to be exact).
You do need a mechanism to move energy through the atmosphere to warm it. That is what well mixed radiative gases do. Each layer of the atmosphere absorbs energy based on its density. The concentration of these gases is mostly irrelevant.
Let’s say on our hypothetical planet there’s a 10km tall mountain. Without any atmosphere, the mountain top and bottom would both be -18C let’s say, assuming that is true. Now we add an atmosphere that has no greenhouse gases… we still have a lapse rate, so what are the temperatures?
They can’t be -18C both on top and bottom of mountain because we have a lapse rate.
That is correct, the temperature at the base and summit will be different, and this is the case for the scenario with greenhouse gases as well. The difference is that in the case with GHGs, the entire lapse rate will be translated to the right on the x-axis of the temperature/altitude graph:
(this diagram is a simplification for illustrative purposes)
It is the higher density of the lower atmosphere which allows more energy to be stored in a smaller volume of space. You still need to provide energy though. Without the sun the atmosphere would freeze. With two suns it would be much warmer at the same density.
It also explains the Chinook winds. Cold air from the Rockies flows downward toward the plains in Montana. As the air flows down the mountain, it heats up. It’s most noticeable during Winter.
Ron Long
August 4, 2024 3:20 am
Warmest July on record? How does that claim include the balance of what is happening in the Patagonia region of Argentina and Chile? “It started snowing June 5 and hasn’t stopped”, one statement from early July. The unusual cold and snow accumulation is producing one million sheep deaths and loss of 70,000 cows. Part of this is due to the current La Niña, which lowers latitude wind speeds and allows more polar outbreaks, and the other part? Death Valley against Patagonia? A real Net Zero.
President Milei has stopped the slide of Argentina into Marxism, and now is working on exiting socialism. He has stood up against the fake election results in Venezuela, stopped BRICS, and supports Trump.
He exited BRICS, which currently has 11 members and more than 30 applicants.
Venezuela, with huge oil and gas reserves, is one of the applicants
No wonder the US wants to control/invade with a proxy Venezuela, but it is busy with Taiwan, Middle East, Ukraine, etc., an overflowing plate, plus an election coming up.
Having to speculate wildly from your limited disclosure, but if nature intends three score and ten, and puberty kicks in around 13, and you’re three years superannuated, then apparently the NHS started giving you puberty blockers in 1964?
They have AIS, Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome. In which the foetus has XY chromosomes, and internal testes. In the normal course of development the testes release testosterone, which masculinizes the XY foetus and the result is a boy. In a very small percentage of cases, a few per 100k, the body does not respond to the testosterone. In that case (and contrary to Aristotle) the foetus develops in the default manner, which is female external genitalia. But not internal. The result is a girl, and will normally be observed as a girl at birth, but one with no uterus or ovaries.
For an interesting sideline on this, look up the origins of the discovery of finasteride to stop prostate enlargement.
However, there are still the internal testes, and they release testosterone. So such girls do not go through the usual female puberty. They also tend to be more muscular, broader shouldered, narrower hipped than XX girls. They have the testosterone levels that are normal in men. This additional muscularity and build to match, and the high level of circulating testosterone, mean that they have some but not all of the advantages which regular males have over regular females in those athletic pursuits where strength and explosive power is an advantage.
The advantage is not enough that they will compete equally with men in athletics, but it is enough that they will generally outclass XX women. Caster Semenya is reported to be an example of this. Probably the furore around her sex status has prevented her reaching her full potential as a middle distance runner, but to see her running at her peak, well, its grace and power in motion. But any XY woman in the pack would feel that this was a horse of a different breed. It was reported by the UK Telegraph that all the goals scored by Zambia against the Netherlands in the current Olympics were by DSD women, if true that’s another example. And there has been the recent women’s boxing furore.
The solution to all this is very simple, its to have competitions whose entry criterion is XX chromosomes. And to stop arguing whether AIS women are ‘really’ women and denigrating them accordingly. Yes, they are really women, but they are women who have an overwhelming advantage in athletics over XX women and if they are allowed into women’s athletics, the result will eventually be that almost all events are dominated by the XY women. The discouraging effect on womens sport would be considerable. The signs of it are apparent now.
It’s about more than hormones.
The skeletal structure and how and where the bones results some leverage differences which could have a large advantage to males in most athletic endeavors.
Michel as always, you are a voice of reason. I agree that one should not denigrate any person and appreciate you raising that point.
Such people truly are special in a most basic sense of the word. Having three daughters myself I can only imagine the heartache that this anomaly could bring and we should be sensitive to it. I can empathise with the fathers of these athletes.
It is common sense and not cruelty that regardless of how we describe such people, they are no more appropriate to women’s sport than it would be to match a 75kg woman against a 45kg woman.
Michel,
Thank you for this description of AIS. It seems clear and logical, but is yours a “fringe” description or a mainstream medical one that is not much disputed?
The suggestion to have a competitive class of XX only is eminently sensible.
I love the female, in the the sense of Vive la difference. I put the pure feminine examples on a pedestal and try to keep them there. Imposters and gatecrashers can keep off the pedestal, because they often seem to carry baggage that makes them unpleasant.
Geoff S
My description of the biology, what the condition consists of, is mainstream and not contested at all. AIS is a recognized phenomenon, and one kind of DSD (difference of sexual development). Other kinds of DSD arise from different chromosome configurations – there are more than just being XX or XY.
My account is somewhat simplified, the phenomenon doesn’t always take the exact form I described, it varies in the degree of insensitivity to androgen. There are three recognized sub variations:
Complete AIS (CAIS): The body does not respond to androgens at all, resulting in a female external appearance at birth.
Partial AIS (PAIS): The body partially responds to androgens, leading to a range of genital appearances from mostly female to mostly male.
Mild AIS (MAIS): The mildest form, where individuals have male traits but may experience infertility or reduced body hair.
The significance of this, as opposed to the phenomenon itself, is in dispute. Whether there is an advantage has been disputed, though almost all athletic organizations now seem to be accepting that there is one.
Its been argued that the only source of the advantage is testosterone levels, and so some athletes have been allowed to compete in womens events only on condition they took testosterone suppressing drugs or otherwise lower their testosterone levels. Caster Semenya has spoken about having taken them and reported the experience was unpleasant. It would be a bit like hormonal treatments for prostate cancer.
The argument is almost certainly wrong, the advantage doesn’t come only from the present testosterone levels, but also from the differences in body structure which coming to maturity with that hormonal and genetic heritage produce, and these will not be abolished by lowering present testosterone levels.
My proposed solution has been suggested by others, notably Sharon Davies, the former British swimming Olympian, and sporting agencies in many countries are de facto implementing it. This is what led to the two boxers failing their ‘gender tests’. A confusing mis-categorization, they were not being tested for gender but for sex.
In Caster Semenya’s case two things happened. One is she fell into the policy of reducing testosterone. The other was that, independently of that, she was banned selectively from certain events. If I recall correctly, it was the shorter distance ones.
So my account of the biology is a bit simplified but is mainstream and undisputed. The question of policy is still up in the air, though I think the world is moving to what I suggested. The implications of the biological facts for the wider debate about trans policy (which I did not get into) are very much disputed.
Trump will put and end to such debauchery, by withholding federal funds from schools and other entities promoting “untraditional” men on traditional girls teams, and visa versa
Here in Vermont, we just had another un-announced power failure for about 2 hours, during Sunday morning breakfast.
At first I thought it was due to the variable unreliable wind not blowing and the variable, unreliable sun not shining, it being overcast and warm.
But, apparently, things fail even though they are not over stressed, like my espresso machine going on the blink a few days ago.
Nobody wants to fix it, because it comes from France, which is hosting a woke anti-Christ queer show, and forcing athletes to eat vegan food, and swim in the feces-filled Seine.
The US should immediately stop all imports from France.
That will get their attention
The same with Mexico, which has been aiding and abetting the flow of misfits across our borders, to “teach the Gringos a lesson”.
Immediately stop all their exports to the US, if they do not actively ship these misfits to Mexico’s southern border
Hey Wilpost, I can easily relate to your sentiment but I would rather despise the traitorous scumbags like Biden & Harris in our own country for encouraging the invasion. As for the Opening Ceremony crap, not all the French are cheese-eating surrender monkeys like Manu Micron. I accept Marion Maréchal’s apology on behalf of decent society in France.
There’s a lot of reasons why the French should be humiliated by how they have hosted the Olympics this year. Athletes sleeping in the park because it is more comfortable on the grass than on the beds, vegan food in the Olympic Village, disgraceful and tasteless Opening Ceremonies, XY women unfairly competing.
Here is a new time-lapse video of NOAA Band 16 hourly images from the GOES East geostationary satellite, for 21 days ending June 26th, 2024. These visualizations are for the CONUS region, the 48 contiguous states.
I keep posting about these Band 16 images because it directly forces me to align my thinking with reliable observation. My sense is that the incremental static radiative effect, of rising concentrations of CO2 and of other non-condensing GHGs, is not capable of forcing heat energy to accumulate down here on land and in the oceans.
Here is the full text description at the Youtube posting.
******************
This is a time lapse video of NOAA GOES East Band 16 infrared images for the CONUS region (contiguous U.S.), on one-hour intervals for 21 days ending June 26th, 2024. This includes a period of hot weather over much of the U.S.
Background: GOES East is a geostationary satellite capturing high resolution radiance data at visible and infrared wavelengths. NOAA calls Band 16 the “CO2 Longwave IR” band, centered at a wavelength of 13.3 microns. It is within this same band of wavelengths at the edge of the “atmospheric window” that a significant portion of the claimed static warming effect of incremental concentrations of CO2 is computed. The “brightness temperature” color scale used for these visualizations (at this URL below – copy and paste in a browser) is such that the infrared energy being emitted to space is 10 times stronger at 30C (bright yellow) than at -90C (white.)
The atmosphere is not just a passive radiative “trap.” It is sometimes described that way to support the concept of the “greenhouse effect.” But the end result of its powerful heat engine operation in response to absorbed energy is seen from space as a huge array of highly active and highly variable emitter elements. The formation and dissipation of clouds obviously has a lot to do with this, and the related overturning circulations are readily seen at local to regional scale. We also see a very rapid daytime rise and decay of infrared emission to space where there are clear skies.
Can the effect of incremental CO2 ever be isolated for reliable attribution of reported long-term warming? No. Can the long-term rise in CO2 concentration end up forcing heat energy to accumulate to harmful effect down here on land and in the oceans by what happens in the atmosphere? Also no. The planet will be fine. It’s time to stop scaring the children about climate change. Emissions of CO2 from using fossil fuels for energy are simply not capable of driving the climate system to a bad outcome.
*******************
This seems to says that NOAA is measuring the “emissions” of IR from CO2. However, FLIR a company that makes IR detection cameras say they can’t do this.
”Because OGI cameras visualize gas as a lack of infrared energy, they can only image gases that absorb infrared radiation in the filtered bandpass: gases that don’t absorb IR in the filtered bandpass won’t be visible. For instance, noble gases such as helium, oxygen, and nitrogen cannot be directly imaged.” Teledyne FLIR OGI
The imager measures the radiance (i.e. the strength of the longwave emission to space) in this particular band. The origin of the radiated energy is from the surface, from clouds, from water vapor, and from CO2. They call it the “CO2 longwave IR band” as explained here. The purpose is not to detect or to represent the presence of CO2 itself. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/ABIQuickGuide_Band16.pdf
When CO2 is low, we have ice ages, when it is higher we have boom periods as with the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Present Warm Period
More CO2 is good, because it increases flora and fauna
Greening has increased 22% from 1900 to 2023, due to increased CO2, despite large areas of forest being clearcut for development
CO2 has NOTHING to do with Ice Ages. They are caused by high levels of volcanic SO2 aerosols from extensive periods of volcanic eruptions.
Likewise, they have nothing to do with warm periods. They are caused by periods of decreased volcanic eruptions, for example only 11 VEI4 and higher volcanic eruptions during the 300-year MWP.. (and only 70 during the 500-year RWP).
CO2 has NO climatic effect, but rising levels do cause global greening.
The heat engine arises from a driving temperature difference with spatial separation. On Earth that is the surface temperature and the outgoing radiation temperature. This maintains a continuous non-equilibrium condition where thermodynamics depletes the driving temperature difference.
Daviod,
Fascinating information. One needs to study it over and over to get a feel for patterns and changes, then one needs some calibration information to relate it to more familair variables. Like, was there a heat wave on 13th June in west coast US, and a cool change in New Orleans on 17th June?
It would help if you were able to provide hourly temperature profiles for some ground stations like Los Angeles. New Orleans and Miami. (I’m in Australia, not used to searching US data bases).Also, comparison maps for % cloud cover would help interpretation, but I have no idea how possible they are.
Geoff S
Thanks for your reply, Geoff. My aim has been mainly for process understanding – i.e. how the longwave emitter works in connection with atmospheric circulation, not so much to correlate to measured surface conditions. For example, it is amazing to watch the rapid de-powering of the infrared emitter to space above the cloud tops of convective weather, while surface cooling must be happening below. This would tend to retain energy to maintain the circulation. And as an overall picture of how “just enough” energy is retained down here for our good, it is impressive to watch what clouds do to suppress the emitter output.
About cloud cover, the images themselves show pretty good discrimination, but there are GOES products in the visual wavelengths that could be matched up by timestamp. I can’t go back in time to do that more than about 9 days though. Here is the source website for the images on all the visible and infrared bands. One could assemble a matched-time display for more study. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus.php?sat=G16#
I’m calling the latest TIPPING POINT into irreversible Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Climate Change ………………………because…..well…… science…….
CAGWCC.
Randle Dewees
August 4, 2024 4:31 am
Hello,
I notice the California ISO web site has stopped posting plotted data for CA grid energy production and importation. Basically, no info now. Has anyone found where this info is being posted?
STORY TIP: Hello everyone. Do you know instinctively that advanced industrial economies can’t run on summer breezes? Do you sometimes struggle to remember the high school physics that explains why they can’t? My latest substack essay, “The physics of net zero”, explains the governing thermodynamics through a couple of simple metaphors. By understanding the physics, you can argue like a boss with anyone who tries to tell you wind turbines, solar panels and batteries can replace nuclear and hydrocarbon fuels. If you find it useful, please share it with everyone you know. Time really is running out to end Net Zero.
Richard,
Neat essay, easy analogies. However, the aim is to change the minds of those with the wrong ideas about electricity generation, who over time have shown great reluctance to change.
All of us have this problem of being heard. Please let uis know how well you feel you have got through to closed mnds, so we can share your success.
Geoff S
I’m thinking of setting up a backyard weather station. Does anyone have experience with the Tempest WiFi weather station? It’s $US339, and I don’t want to break the bank.
(Mods: You can delete this post if it’s too commercially oriented.)
Since I’ve been looking for one myself, I took a look at this one (not been impressed with the others – the AccuRite one I did have was abysmal, as the reviews seem to agree with).
The top review on Amazon is an EXCELLENT one. The reviewer has had his for three years, and has been updating them as time goes on.
Of interest to me, as a not-quite-recovered software developer, is that they expose the API so that data collection can come into an app that I can write. (No idea how GOOD the API is, that varies, but that it is exposed is a good thing.)
The only issue that it has – which is common to EVERY consumer-level weather station, apparently, is that the sensors degrade over time. Annual cost of keeping a station going appears to be about 100 USD as you have to buy replacements. The review, though, had very good things to say about their customer support and honoring their warranties.
Bjorn Lomborg article in WSJ yesterday and posted at Real Clear Politics. While he agrees that CO2 emissions are a problem I suspect that’s a concession to get published in main stream media. In any case this has broad reach.
The article says that the study shows that the method to conserve water is by instituting a water tax.
However, just as with the idea of taxing carbon to reduce emissions, no one has ever justified why government needs more taxes to operate its functions.
Just as California has already done, it overtaxed residents by 97.5 billion which produced a surplus above and beyond expenses. Then politicians spent it all plus more resulting in a deficit of 73 billion. But they didn’t spend one dime on increased water storage.
I have driven by that turbine a half-dozen times. I figured it was a lightning victim. Note that it appears like a long-haired fanatic with outstretch arms pleading some point — like Repent!
rhs,
I have been writing for 10 years now that it unsafe to assume that the rock basins that contain the oceans have constant volume. We know that there is sea floor spreading, that seamounts can rise and show themselves above the ocean surface, that there is sedimemt added to oceans at river deltas, etc etc. We know that the basin volumes are not constant for the purpose of interpretation of ocean level change, but we do not know how important the error is by assuming constant volume.
One of the major irritants I have arising from the poor quality of climate change research is this mental ability to ignore errors that upset the Establishment story. Science does not advance that way. I wish I had a stack of Richard Feynman’s books that I could send to each Establishment offender. I’d need a huge stack.
Geoff S
corky
August 4, 2024 9:37 am
Who could have guessed that the invention of the internet would lead to the end of civilization.
The Weather Service local forecast now includes a daily headline with the worst weather in the country. They have pulled out the stops for TS Debbie:
“Debby continues to strengthen across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. Multiple hazards unfolding across portions of Florida and the Southeast include dangerous rip currents, increasing winds, life threatening storm surge, risk of tornadoes and flash flooding. A High Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the Savannah metro area to Myrtle Beach vicinity and points westward the next several days.”
Not even a hurricane. “Excessive” is their new favorite word. Rain used to be heavy now it is excessive. Not sure that even makes sense.
After the coming attack on Israel by the Mad Mullahs of Iran, will Israel take this opportunity to destroy the nuclear weapons facilities of Iran?
I certainly would. I would have hit them the first time the Mad Mullahs attacked.
Israel should hit the nuclear weapons production facilities, and Iran’s missile production facilities and Iran’s drone production facilities. And I personally, would like to see the homes of the Mad Mullahs destroyed along the way. Perhaps some of the Mad Mullahs will be home at the time.
Israel should not destroy Iran’s oil production facilities. Save those for the Iranian people who will overthrow the Mad Mullahs given half a chance, and a war, where the Mad Mullahs are ducking and covering, would be a good time to do it.
The only problem is the Appeaser/Terrorist Lover, Joe Biden, will no doubt, be trying to restrain the Israelis at every point. Obama’s love of radical Islam and Iran in particular, is still very apparent at the White House. Biden will speak no ill of Iran. He won’t even mention Iran. The murderous trouble-maker nation that cannot be named by the Biden Whitehouse.
Joe Biden and his puppetmasters have been a huge disaster for the entire world.
The effects of Biden inflation are finally starting to show up in the American economy. More companies shutting down their businesses, more people being laid off and unemployment numbers going higher.
This is what happens when Democrats flood money into the U.S.ecomomy. Money they don’t have, btw. Democrats think more spending is the solution to every problem. As you can see, it not only is not necessarily the solution, it can be a very big problem.
Democrats have trashed the American economy, and now the Republicans will have to come back in and fix things.
This morning, the international stock markets are following the lead of the U.S. stock market and are selling off.
This is Biden-Harris/Democrat economics: A very flawed vision of how things work.
Radical Democrats, which is what we have now, are not suitable to governing our lives. They screw things up every time they are given the chance. And here they go again.
When Trump gets back in office, the first thing he will have to do is raise the Defense Budget, just like he had to do the last time Biden was in office and neglected the U.S. military.
On Trump’s first day in office in 2017, his Defense Secretary came to him and told him the military was “critically short” of ammunition, thanks to the neglect of the Obama-Biden administration.
How would you like to hear that on your first day as president? Well, Trump will probably be told that again when he takes office in 2025.
Democrats in general are a disaster, and Biden in particular is a walking disaster.
We need to throw the Democrats out of office and keep them out. They are no good for us. They prove it every time they are in power.
Policy makers are never told how much methane will run-up global temperature.
Given that atmospheric methane is increasing about 7 parts per billion every year, policy makers need to know what the effect of that will be.
So, fill in the blank:
By 2100 methane is projected to increase
global temperature by___ degrees Celsius.
0.000000000000001
I calculate 10 times higher than that based on the added mass.
So 0.00000000000001
we should panic! 🙂
0.0 deg. C
If lighting frequency increases, the increase in methane concentration could be greatly slowed.
Lightning
Meh, they’re just words, accuracy isn’t important. /S
In the spirit of full transparency, I was once the recipient of a correction for misspelling “lightning.” I’m only sharing forward. 🙂
If that is a question then yes lighting which oxidizes the methane into CO2 and H2O.
Thank you. The spelling checker of my computer is not fool proof.
I find that the autocorrect seems to introduce errors at a higher rate than what I do on my own.
Well, as efforts to switch to “renewable” energy increases, lighting will decrease. 😎
“Words mean exactly what I want them to mean, neither more nor less” said the Queen.
A minor change if I may…..
Alice objected. ‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
“You will die, but the words you speak, or spoke, will live forever … unless you are misquoted” — Auliq Ice
Zero
The correct number of significant digits.
To double the amount of methane in the atmosphere requires twice as many cattle, termites, swamps, oil and gas production, rice paddies, pine forests emitting turpenes, ocean seeps, leaky coal beds, twice as much of every present emitter….realistically it’s just not going to happen….and if it did, still a minor temp increase….
It’s not even a measurable increase.
Wow, just exposed myself to reading “atmospheric methane” on Wikipedia. Very carefully crafted verbiage never showing the absorption bands, emphasis on Global Warming Potential instead of molecular cross section, and regarding lifetime is “less persistent” than CO2 so it’s GWP drops to 28 x as bad as CO2 after a century. This writeup is way beyond the average politician’s ability to comprehend, much less be able to critique and apply to practical regulations.
It might be worse than that, DMacK. There is a real possibility that the rate of removal by methanotrophic bacteria will increase with an increased concentration.
+0.11203 degrees C. +/- 0.1 degree C.
With 105% confidence
Unprecedented
Worse then previously thought
Only possible solution is to ban the production and consumption of baked beans.
+0.11203 degrees C. +/- 0.1 degree C
________________________________________________________
Looks like an honest stab at it to me. I get perhaps as much as much 0.04 Celsius degrees which is unmeasurable.
I want to revisit the idea of adiabatic compression being responsible for warmer surface temperatures than expected without an atmosphere.
The largest critique against this idea is that the compression would offer a “one-time” heating, and not be responsible for a _constant_ increase in surface temp above the expected blackbody one.
My counter is: the grand canyon is **constantly** 10C warmer at the bottom than the top. This is universally accepted to be because of the adiabatic compression. If it is responsible for this *constantly* higher temperature of 10C at the bottom vs top of the grand canyon, why can this not also be responsible for the Earth’s surface temp?
You are totally correct
Adiabatic compression is always there..
It is what maintains the temperature gradient… ie lapse rate.
Gravity is always applying a force.
So this force always has to be resisted.
The Grand Canyon is about a mile below sea level. Since the air is much denser, it can hold much more heat. This dense air acts as an insulation which keeps the heat from escaping.
Actually, the rim of the Grand Canyon is at 6000′ or so above sea level and the river is 2000′ or so above sea level.
Close enough for Climate Science!
been there, done that- several times
And the river flows INTO the ocean…. Surely the river is HIGHER than the ocean.
Ok, that explains the temperature. What explains the increase?
Lapse rate!
Methane ppm is very low, has near zero warming effect
CH4 in atmospheric converts to a very tiny quantity CO2
Open oceans limit the surface temperature. With the present atmospheric mass, the temperature is limited to 30C. It is a very powerful negative feedback. The lowest temperature for open ocean water is -1.7C. So the average will be somewhere in between. Oceans give up heat to land through advection so are warmed by the oceans on average.
Elevated land is colder than the oceans because the ground pressure is lower. Dry land lower than the ocean level is warmer because the ground pressure is higher.
The ocean sustainable limit of 30C has slight sensitivity to air pressure but it is not the same as the lapse rate. The Cretaceous period had atmospheric pressure around 1150hPa. That would increase the sustainable temperature bu 3C; so 33C rather than 30C.
I have documented the regulating process and measured data here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/23/ocean-atmosphere-response-to-solar-emr-at-top-of-the-atmosphere/
The 30C limit has been known for a long time and was an active area of research before the IPCC needed CO2 to become the climate control knob and railroaded those working on real science. It is now difficult to find the early publications on this observation.
Every day, somewhere on the globe open ocean water is regulating to 30C. The convective potential that causes the cyclic instability is ubiquitous across the tropical oceans: CAPE is currently high in the Gulf of Mexico:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=cape/orthographic=-85.35,13.74,390
And building in the Mediterranean. The Mediterranean is large enough to support convective storms. The Med has a current temperature anomaly of plus 3C so there will be some big storms this year.
The Persian Gulf and Red Sae are too small to support cyclic convective instability so they do get substantially above 30C in August.
Rick,
This is excellent observation of an effect that is, IMO, under-appreciated. It is measurable and it is capable of interpretation as you have done. It has to be regarded alongside other mechanisms that are the hodge-podge of the poor science behind Establishment global warming preferences.
I wish you well with its increasing prominence.
Geoff S.
Rapid evaporation in the tropics causes air and WV to rise, and nearby air to fill in the “vacuum”, which causes surface winds, which ripple the surface, which causes more evaporation, which causes more wind, and ripples become waves, which causes more evaporation until the 30 C limit is reached. This is a mechanically-induced process.
This takes place during El Niños
The latest El Niño was reinforced by the Hung-Tonga underwater eruption which threw 140 million metric ton of water vapor into the upper troposphere and stratosphere, where normally is not much WV.
That WV is a greenhouse gas which warms the atmosphere, enabling it to hold even more water, which makes the atmosphere even warmer!
It will take some time, say two to three years, for the unusual situation to unwind itself, so things get back to more normal temperatures
Of course, by that time some other event may happen.
Back in the 90’s I spent a week working in Jordan, on our rest day we went to Mount Nebo, 700 metres above sea level. It was quite chilly as you would expect due to altitude. We proceeded down towards the Dead Sea 430 metres below sea level and the temperature rose significantly. The temperature at Mt Nebo would be about 4.5 degrees Celsius cooler than sea level, whilst Dead Sea would be about 3 degrees warmer than sea level, based on standard lapse rate of 6.5 degrees Celsius per 1000 metres change in altitude. However, bearing in mind this was 30 years ago, I seem to recall it was more than 7.5 degrees Celsius increase, closer to 10 or 12.
The lapse rate isn’t a constant. It varies with the humidity.
Range is from around 5C/km for very moist air, to 9.8c/km for totally dry air.
6.5C/km is a sort of “average”
Lapse rate!
The lapse rate explains why lower altitudes are warmer than higher altitudes, it does not explain why the base temperature is what it is. You could have a planet with a much colder surface temperature that still has a lapse rate, or a much warmer surface temperature. The earth without a GHE could still have a lapse rate, the surface air would just be much colder than the 288 K we observe (about 255 K to be exact).
You do need a mechanism to move energy through the atmosphere to warm it. That is what well mixed radiative gases do. Each layer of the atmosphere absorbs energy based on its density. The concentration of these gases is mostly irrelevant.
It absorbs IR based on the density of IR active gases, which depends on concentration.
“the surface air would just be much colder than the 288 K we observe”
RUBBISH !!
The wrongly named GHE is actually the atmospheric mass effect.
You can calculate the blackbody temperature of an object in equilibrium at the earth sun distance fairly easily and see that this is the case.
gibberish. Nothing to do with fakely name GHGs.
Let’s say on our hypothetical planet there’s a 10km tall mountain. Without any atmosphere, the mountain top and bottom would both be -18C let’s say, assuming that is true. Now we add an atmosphere that has no greenhouse gases… we still have a lapse rate, so what are the temperatures?
They can’t be -18C both on top and bottom of mountain because we have a lapse rate.
That is correct, the temperature at the base and summit will be different, and this is the case for the scenario with greenhouse gases as well. The difference is that in the case with GHGs, the entire lapse rate will be translated to the right on the x-axis of the temperature/altitude graph:
(this diagram is a simplification for illustrative purposes)
Simple is all you will ever understand.
And it is just more gibberish anyway.
You got me to thinking. Went to earth.nullschool. There’s a tropical depression at about 20N, 125W.
In the eye: pressure 997hPa, temperature 75.3°F, sea surface shows as 76.0°F.
About 150 miles away: pressure 1011hPa, temperature 72.3°F.
Higher pressure, lower temperature.
It is the higher density of the lower atmosphere which allows more energy to be stored in a smaller volume of space. You still need to provide energy though. Without the sun the atmosphere would freeze. With two suns it would be much warmer at the same density.
“adiabatic compression”
It also explains the Chinook winds. Cold air from the Rockies flows downward toward the plains in Montana. As the air flows down the mountain, it heats up. It’s most noticeable during Winter.
Warmest July on record? How does that claim include the balance of what is happening in the Patagonia region of Argentina and Chile? “It started snowing June 5 and hasn’t stopped”, one statement from early July. The unusual cold and snow accumulation is producing one million sheep deaths and loss of 70,000 cows. Part of this is due to the current La Niña, which lowers latitude wind speeds and allows more polar outbreaks, and the other part? Death Valley against Patagonia? A real Net Zero.
Oh that’s an easy one Ron. Seriously haven’t you heard about Javier Milei? The source of all calamity.
President Milei has stopped the slide of Argentina into Marxism, and now is working on exiting socialism. He has stood up against the fake election results in Venezuela, stopped BRICS, and supports Trump.
Yes indeed! I was channeling the fever dreams of those in Argentina with MDS (Milei Derangement Syndrome). Sorry for the missing /sarc.
He exited BRICS, which currently has 11 members and more than 30 applicants.
Venezuela, with huge oil and gas reserves, is one of the applicants
No wonder the US wants to control/invade with a proxy Venezuela, but it is busy with Taiwan, Middle East, Ukraine, etc., an overflowing plate, plus an election coming up.
Ron Long:
Current La Nina???
I think there was a rare southern hemisphere SSW event over Antarctica in July which pushed a lot of cold air away from the south pole.
Greetings from the mostly peaceful UK
Top shock of the week?
British Medical Association rejects Cass report and…
The British Medical Association (BMA) has called for the ban on puberty blockers for under-18s to be lifted.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqe6npgyr5ro
If you see a doctor good luck.
Well I’m 3 years older than nature intended this August, so they aren’t all bad.
Once upon a time…
Having to speculate wildly from your limited disclosure, but if nature intends three score and ten, and puberty kicks in around 13, and you’re three years superannuated, then apparently the NHS started giving you puberty blockers in 1964?
Meanwhile in Paris, a couple of men are about to get medals for punching women.
Lets
Go
Bonkers
Today
I can’t find trustworthy news on this topic. Are they really men or just the victims of Russian disinformation like Hunter Biden?
They have AIS, Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome. In which the foetus has XY chromosomes, and internal testes. In the normal course of development the testes release testosterone, which masculinizes the XY foetus and the result is a boy. In a very small percentage of cases, a few per 100k, the body does not respond to the testosterone. In that case (and contrary to Aristotle) the foetus develops in the default manner, which is female external genitalia. But not internal. The result is a girl, and will normally be observed as a girl at birth, but one with no uterus or ovaries.
For an interesting sideline on this, look up the origins of the discovery of finasteride to stop prostate enlargement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34290981
However, there are still the internal testes, and they release testosterone. So such girls do not go through the usual female puberty. They also tend to be more muscular, broader shouldered, narrower hipped than XX girls. They have the testosterone levels that are normal in men. This additional muscularity and build to match, and the high level of circulating testosterone, mean that they have some but not all of the advantages which regular males have over regular females in those athletic pursuits where strength and explosive power is an advantage.
The advantage is not enough that they will compete equally with men in athletics, but it is enough that they will generally outclass XX women. Caster Semenya is reported to be an example of this. Probably the furore around her sex status has prevented her reaching her full potential as a middle distance runner, but to see her running at her peak, well, its grace and power in motion. But any XY woman in the pack would feel that this was a horse of a different breed. It was reported by the UK Telegraph that all the goals scored by Zambia against the Netherlands in the current Olympics were by DSD women, if true that’s another example. And there has been the recent women’s boxing furore.
The solution to all this is very simple, its to have competitions whose entry criterion is XX chromosomes. And to stop arguing whether AIS women are ‘really’ women and denigrating them accordingly. Yes, they are really women, but they are women who have an overwhelming advantage in athletics over XX women and if they are allowed into women’s athletics, the result will eventually be that almost all events are dominated by the XY women. The discouraging effect on womens sport would be considerable. The signs of it are apparent now.
It’s about more than hormones.
The skeletal structure and how and where the bones results some leverage differences which could have a large advantage to males in most athletic endeavors.
Wow!
I left out a whole phrase!
…how and where muscles attach to the bones…
Michel as always, you are a voice of reason. I agree that one should not denigrate any person and appreciate you raising that point.
Such people truly are special in a most basic sense of the word. Having three daughters myself I can only imagine the heartache that this anomaly could bring and we should be sensitive to it. I can empathise with the fathers of these athletes.
It is common sense and not cruelty that regardless of how we describe such people, they are no more appropriate to women’s sport than it would be to match a 75kg woman against a 45kg woman.
Michel,
Thank you for this description of AIS. It seems clear and logical, but is yours a “fringe” description or a mainstream medical one that is not much disputed?
The suggestion to have a competitive class of XX only is eminently sensible.
I love the female, in the the sense of Vive la difference. I put the pure feminine examples on a pedestal and try to keep them there. Imposters and gatecrashers can keep off the pedestal, because they often seem to carry baggage that makes them unpleasant.
Geoff S
My description of the biology, what the condition consists of, is mainstream and not contested at all. AIS is a recognized phenomenon, and one kind of DSD (difference of sexual development). Other kinds of DSD arise from different chromosome configurations – there are more than just being XX or XY.
My account is somewhat simplified, the phenomenon doesn’t always take the exact form I described, it varies in the degree of insensitivity to androgen. There are three recognized sub variations:
The significance of this, as opposed to the phenomenon itself, is in dispute. Whether there is an advantage has been disputed, though almost all athletic organizations now seem to be accepting that there is one.
Its been argued that the only source of the advantage is testosterone levels, and so some athletes have been allowed to compete in womens events only on condition they took testosterone suppressing drugs or otherwise lower their testosterone levels. Caster Semenya has spoken about having taken them and reported the experience was unpleasant. It would be a bit like hormonal treatments for prostate cancer.
The argument is almost certainly wrong, the advantage doesn’t come only from the present testosterone levels, but also from the differences in body structure which coming to maturity with that hormonal and genetic heritage produce, and these will not be abolished by lowering present testosterone levels.
My proposed solution has been suggested by others, notably Sharon Davies, the former British swimming Olympian, and sporting agencies in many countries are de facto implementing it. This is what led to the two boxers failing their ‘gender tests’. A confusing mis-categorization, they were not being tested for gender but for sex.
In Caster Semenya’s case two things happened. One is she fell into the policy of reducing testosterone. The other was that, independently of that, she was banned selectively from certain events. If I recall correctly, it was the shorter distance ones.
So my account of the biology is a bit simplified but is mainstream and undisputed. The question of policy is still up in the air, though I think the world is moving to what I suggested. The implications of the biological facts for the wider debate about trans policy (which I did not get into) are very much disputed.
This is what the paralympics are good at managing.
Ask the crying victims!
Trump will put and end to such debauchery, by withholding federal funds from schools and other entities promoting “untraditional” men on traditional girls teams, and visa versa
Here in Vermont, we just had another un-announced power failure for about 2 hours, during Sunday morning breakfast.
At first I thought it was due to the variable unreliable wind not blowing and the variable, unreliable sun not shining, it being overcast and warm.
But, apparently, things fail even though they are not over stressed, like my espresso machine going on the blink a few days ago.
Nobody wants to fix it, because it comes from France, which is hosting a woke anti-Christ queer show, and forcing athletes to eat vegan food, and swim in the feces-filled Seine.
The US should immediately stop all imports from France.
That will get their attention
The same with Mexico, which has been aiding and abetting the flow of misfits across our borders, to “teach the Gringos a lesson”.
Immediately stop all their exports to the US, if they do not actively ship these misfits to Mexico’s southern border
Hey Wilpost, I can easily relate to your sentiment but I would rather despise the traitorous scumbags like Biden & Harris in our own country for encouraging the invasion. As for the Opening Ceremony crap, not all the French are cheese-eating surrender monkeys like Manu Micron. I accept Marion Maréchal’s apology on behalf of decent society in France.
While the Olympics have any physical sports that allow males to beat up females, I have have ZERO interest in them.
There’s a lot of reasons why the French should be humiliated by how they have hosted the Olympics this year. Athletes sleeping in the park because it is more comfortable on the grass than on the beds, vegan food in the Olympic Village, disgraceful and tasteless Opening Ceremonies, XY women unfairly competing.
Here is a new time-lapse video of NOAA Band 16 hourly images from the GOES East geostationary satellite, for 21 days ending June 26th, 2024. These visualizations are for the CONUS region, the 48 contiguous states.
I keep posting about these Band 16 images because it directly forces me to align my thinking with reliable observation. My sense is that the incremental static radiative effect, of rising concentrations of CO2 and of other non-condensing GHGs, is not capable of forcing heat energy to accumulate down here on land and in the oceans.
https://youtu.be/jgjw6ViRq9k
For interpretation – plot of radiance to “brightness temperature”
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qy4QnSkaJZeLIeC4R7-600ZuctPEUwaz/view?usp=drive_link
The significance of Band 16 on the infrared spectrum.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/175qnVngPPfZJKUPUH13u6t5wolTBl0qi/view?usp=drive_link
Here is the full text description at the Youtube posting.
******************
This is a time lapse video of NOAA GOES East Band 16 infrared images for the CONUS region (contiguous U.S.), on one-hour intervals for 21 days ending June 26th, 2024. This includes a period of hot weather over much of the U.S.
Background: GOES East is a geostationary satellite capturing high resolution radiance data at visible and infrared wavelengths. NOAA calls Band 16 the “CO2 Longwave IR” band, centered at a wavelength of 13.3 microns. It is within this same band of wavelengths at the edge of the “atmospheric window” that a significant portion of the claimed static warming effect of incremental concentrations of CO2 is computed. The “brightness temperature” color scale used for these visualizations (at this URL below – copy and paste in a browser) is such that the infrared energy being emitted to space is 10 times stronger at 30C (bright yellow) than at -90C (white.)
The atmosphere is not just a passive radiative “trap.” It is sometimes described that way to support the concept of the “greenhouse effect.” But the end result of its powerful heat engine operation in response to absorbed energy is seen from space as a huge array of highly active and highly variable emitter elements. The formation and dissipation of clouds obviously has a lot to do with this, and the related overturning circulations are readily seen at local to regional scale. We also see a very rapid daytime rise and decay of infrared emission to space where there are clear skies.
Can the effect of incremental CO2 ever be isolated for reliable attribution of reported long-term warming? No. Can the long-term rise in CO2 concentration end up forcing heat energy to accumulate to harmful effect down here on land and in the oceans by what happens in the atmosphere? Also no. The planet will be fine. It’s time to stop scaring the children about climate change. Emissions of CO2 from using fossil fuels for energy are simply not capable of driving the climate system to a bad outcome.
*******************
Excellent post!
Thank you. I hope more folks catch on to what these images are telling us.
This seems to says that NOAA is measuring the “emissions” of IR from CO2. However, FLIR a company that makes IR detection cameras say they can’t do this.
”Because OGI cameras visualize gas as a lack of infrared energy, they can only image gases that absorb infrared radiation in the filtered bandpass: gases that don’t absorb IR in the filtered bandpass won’t be visible. For instance, noble gases such as helium, oxygen, and nitrogen cannot be directly imaged.” Teledyne FLIR OGI
The imager measures the radiance (i.e. the strength of the longwave emission to space) in this particular band. The origin of the radiated energy is from the surface, from clouds, from water vapor, and from CO2. They call it the “CO2 longwave IR band” as explained here. The purpose is not to detect or to represent the presence of CO2 itself.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/ABIQuickGuide_Band16.pdf
When CO2 is low, we have ice ages, when it is higher we have boom periods as with the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Present Warm Period
More CO2 is good, because it increases flora and fauna
Greening has increased 22% from 1900 to 2023, due to increased CO2, despite large areas of forest being clearcut for development
Wilpost:
CO2 has NOTHING to do with Ice Ages. They are caused by high levels of volcanic SO2 aerosols from extensive periods of volcanic eruptions.
Likewise, they have nothing to do with warm periods. They are caused by periods of decreased volcanic eruptions, for example only 11 VEI4 and higher volcanic eruptions during the 300-year MWP.. (and only 70 during the 500-year RWP).
CO2 has NO climatic effect, but rising levels do cause global greening.
The heat engine arises from a driving temperature difference with spatial separation. On Earth that is the surface temperature and the outgoing radiation temperature. This maintains a continuous non-equilibrium condition where thermodynamics depletes the driving temperature difference.
Daviod,
Fascinating information. One needs to study it over and over to get a feel for patterns and changes, then one needs some calibration information to relate it to more familair variables. Like, was there a heat wave on 13th June in west coast US, and a cool change in New Orleans on 17th June?
It would help if you were able to provide hourly temperature profiles for some ground stations like Los Angeles. New Orleans and Miami. (I’m in Australia, not used to searching US data bases).Also, comparison maps for % cloud cover would help interpretation, but I have no idea how possible they are.
Geoff S
Thanks for your reply, Geoff. My aim has been mainly for process understanding – i.e. how the longwave emitter works in connection with atmospheric circulation, not so much to correlate to measured surface conditions. For example, it is amazing to watch the rapid de-powering of the infrared emitter to space above the cloud tops of convective weather, while surface cooling must be happening below. This would tend to retain energy to maintain the circulation. And as an overall picture of how “just enough” energy is retained down here for our good, it is impressive to watch what clouds do to suppress the emitter output.
About cloud cover, the images themselves show pretty good discrimination, but there are GOES products in the visual wavelengths that could be matched up by timestamp. I can’t go back in time to do that more than about 9 days though. Here is the source website for the images on all the visible and infrared bands. One could assemble a matched-time display for more study. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus.php?sat=G16#
About recent temperature and other conditions at selected locations, there is
Weather Underground. LAX is here, for example.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX/date/2024-8-3
Again, thanks for your interest.
Here’s a good one. Look at KPHX in Phoenix AZ from June 15 to 20th.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/az/phoenix/KPHX/date/2024-6-20
It is August 4th – 2024 at 9;00pm AEST —
I’m calling the latest TIPPING POINT into irreversible Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Climate Change ………………………because…..well…… science…….
CAGWCC.
Hello,
I notice the California ISO web site has stopped posting plotted data for CA grid energy production and importation. Basically, no info now. Has anyone found where this info is being posted?
Try this EIA site.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/balancing_authority/CISO
Thanks David, this site is posting pretty much what CAISO used to post.
R
They changed their URL
https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook/supply
New York City is quietly siting large numbers of huge (grid scale) lithium batteries including in residential areas. A bad plan.
https://nypost.com/2024/08/02/opinion/siting-large-lithium-ion-batteries-near-homes-and-gas-stations-is-literally-playing-with-fire/
STORY TIP: Hello everyone. Do you know instinctively that advanced industrial economies can’t run on summer breezes? Do you sometimes struggle to remember the high school physics that explains why they can’t? My latest substack essay, “The physics of net zero”, explains the governing thermodynamics through a couple of simple metaphors. By understanding the physics, you can argue like a boss with anyone who tries to tell you wind turbines, solar panels and batteries can replace nuclear and hydrocarbon fuels. If you find it useful, please share it with everyone you know. Time really is running out to end Net Zero.
Richard Lyon. “The physics of Net Zero“. Substack.
Nice article, thanks!
Richard,
Neat essay, easy analogies. However, the aim is to change the minds of those with the wrong ideas about electricity generation, who over time have shown great reluctance to change.
All of us have this problem of being heard. Please let uis know how well you feel you have got through to closed mnds, so we can share your success.
Geoff S
You should consider submitting it to WUWT as a post article.
I’m thinking of setting up a backyard weather station. Does anyone have experience with the Tempest WiFi weather station? It’s $US339, and I don’t want to break the bank.
(Mods: You can delete this post if it’s too commercially oriented.)
Since I’ve been looking for one myself, I took a look at this one (not been impressed with the others – the AccuRite one I did have was abysmal, as the reviews seem to agree with).
The top review on Amazon is an EXCELLENT one. The reviewer has had his for three years, and has been updating them as time goes on.
Of interest to me, as a not-quite-recovered software developer, is that they expose the API so that data collection can come into an app that I can write. (No idea how GOOD the API is, that varies, but that it is exposed is a good thing.)
The only issue that it has – which is common to EVERY consumer-level weather station, apparently, is that the sensors degrade over time. Annual cost of keeping a station going appears to be about 100 USD as you have to buy replacements. The review, though, had very good things to say about their customer support and honoring their warranties.
Our esteemed host is actually the right person to ask about weather stations.
Perhaps we can get him to do a major post on personal weather stations.?
Story Tip ???
This is more accurate than anything currently in use by the UK Met office:
https://www.science-sparks.com/pine-cone-weather-station/
Bjorn Lomborg article in WSJ yesterday and posted at Real Clear Politics. While he agrees that CO2 emissions are a problem I suspect that’s a concession to get published in main stream media. In any case this has broad reach.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/polar-bears-dead-coral-and-other-climate-fictions-528b18ea?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
Eh, Dr. Lomborg is a well-known luke-warmer, with a tendency towards the catastrophist view (although not in complete agreement).
Imagine this, the Southern Ocean is absorbing twice as much CO2 as thought, of course this is a bad thing:
https://phys.org/news/2024-07-southern-ocean-absorbing-previously-thought.html
At least for those folks who believe in Unicorn Flatulence and tipping points.
While we’re at it, let’s find ways to increase food costs to conserve water:
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4797942-california-farmers-groundwater-usage-charge-research/amp/
The article says that the study shows that the method to conserve water is by instituting a water tax.
However, just as with the idea of taxing carbon to reduce emissions, no one has ever justified why government needs more taxes to operate its functions.
Just as California has already done, it overtaxed residents by 97.5 billion which produced a surplus above and beyond expenses. Then politicians spent it all plus more resulting in a deficit of 73 billion. But they didn’t spend one dime on increased water storage.
Imagine this, not all climate solutions are “clean” and without risks:
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/29/carbon-capture-pollution-louisiana-cancer-alley
Lightning strikes are bad, very bad for bird choppers:
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2024/07/30/casper-landfill-next-stop-after-lightning-blows-up-turbine-blade-near-cheyenne-2-2-2/
And of course, blades end up in land fills.
I have driven by that turbine a half-dozen times. I figured it was a lightning victim. Note that it appears like a long-haired fanatic with outstretch arms pleading some point — like Repent!
Climate change increases the food supply in the ocean? Nah, no benefit eveh:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50381-2
Worst use of a cybertruck ever, ambulance? Really?
https://futurism.com/the-byte/cybertruck-ambulance
Who could have thought that rising land masses could/might offset rising seas:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2442457-rising-land-under-antarctica-could-slow-sea-level-rise/
Ok, besides folks who can see beyond the input to their models that is…
rhs,
I have been writing for 10 years now that it unsafe to assume that the rock basins that contain the oceans have constant volume. We know that there is sea floor spreading, that seamounts can rise and show themselves above the ocean surface, that there is sedimemt added to oceans at river deltas, etc etc. We know that the basin volumes are not constant for the purpose of interpretation of ocean level change, but we do not know how important the error is by assuming constant volume.
One of the major irritants I have arising from the poor quality of climate change research is this mental ability to ignore errors that upset the Establishment story. Science does not advance that way. I wish I had a stack of Richard Feynman’s books that I could send to each Establishment offender. I’d need a huge stack.
Geoff S
Who could have guessed that the invention of the internet would lead to the end of civilization.
How UK CFD prices have been panning out
Jan 23 generation
The Weather Service local forecast now includes a daily headline with the worst weather in the country. They have pulled out the stops for TS Debbie:
“Debby continues to strengthen across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. Multiple hazards unfolding across portions of Florida and the Southeast include dangerous rip currents, increasing winds, life threatening storm surge, risk of tornadoes and flash flooding. A High Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the Savannah metro area to Myrtle Beach vicinity and points westward the next several days.”
Not even a hurricane. “Excessive” is their new favorite word. Rain used to be heavy now it is excessive. Not sure that even makes sense.
After the coming attack on Israel by the Mad Mullahs of Iran, will Israel take this opportunity to destroy the nuclear weapons facilities of Iran?
I certainly would. I would have hit them the first time the Mad Mullahs attacked.
Israel should hit the nuclear weapons production facilities, and Iran’s missile production facilities and Iran’s drone production facilities. And I personally, would like to see the homes of the Mad Mullahs destroyed along the way. Perhaps some of the Mad Mullahs will be home at the time.
Israel should not destroy Iran’s oil production facilities. Save those for the Iranian people who will overthrow the Mad Mullahs given half a chance, and a war, where the Mad Mullahs are ducking and covering, would be a good time to do it.
The only problem is the Appeaser/Terrorist Lover, Joe Biden, will no doubt, be trying to restrain the Israelis at every point. Obama’s love of radical Islam and Iran in particular, is still very apparent at the White House. Biden will speak no ill of Iran. He won’t even mention Iran. The murderous trouble-maker nation that cannot be named by the Biden Whitehouse.
Joe Biden and his puppetmasters have been a huge disaster for the entire world.
The Stock Markets are taking a tumble.
The effects of Biden inflation are finally starting to show up in the American economy. More companies shutting down their businesses, more people being laid off and unemployment numbers going higher.
This is what happens when Democrats flood money into the U.S.ecomomy. Money they don’t have, btw. Democrats think more spending is the solution to every problem. As you can see, it not only is not necessarily the solution, it can be a very big problem.
Democrats have trashed the American economy, and now the Republicans will have to come back in and fix things.
This morning, the international stock markets are following the lead of the U.S. stock market and are selling off.
This is Biden-Harris/Democrat economics: A very flawed vision of how things work.
Radical Democrats, which is what we have now, are not suitable to governing our lives. They screw things up every time they are given the chance. And here they go again.
When Trump gets back in office, the first thing he will have to do is raise the Defense Budget, just like he had to do the last time Biden was in office and neglected the U.S. military.
On Trump’s first day in office in 2017, his Defense Secretary came to him and told him the military was “critically short” of ammunition, thanks to the neglect of the Obama-Biden administration.
How would you like to hear that on your first day as president? Well, Trump will probably be told that again when he takes office in 2025.
Democrats in general are a disaster, and Biden in particular is a walking disaster.
We need to throw the Democrats out of office and keep them out. They are no good for us. They prove it every time they are in power.
“ and Biden in particular is a walking disaster”
WRONG !
“and Biden in particular is a shuffling, doddering disaster”