The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) runs the ERA5 reanalysis model. Why they include computed estimates of the forms of energy present in the atmosphere, and what is happening in respect to these forms of energy as the atmosphere circulates.
**************
Name
Vertical integral of energy conversion
Short name
viec
Unit
W m-2
Description
This parameter is one contribution to the amount of energy being converted between kinetic energy, and internal plus potential energy, for a column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere. Negative values indicate a conversion to kinetic energy from potential plus internal energy.
This parameter can be used to study the atmospheric energy budget. The circulation of the atmosphere can also be considered in terms of energy conversions.
******************
Wow, I wonder how these values compare with the “forcings” and “feedbacks” that are expected to operate so as to drive heat energy into the oceans and on land?
The “forcings” and “feedbacks” are a needle in a haystack, and the haystack gets shuffled constantly. Can these single-digit W/m^2 assumed fluxes ever be isolated for proper attribution of a gradual trend of surface temperature in the record of erratic surface temperatures? How, exactly, would that be accomplished?
Please read the entire text description at the Youtube video. I will also paste it below in a reply.
“Are CO2 emissions a risk to the climate? No. The static “warming” effect of incremental CO2 (~4 W/m^2 for 2XCO2) disappears as kinetic energy (wind) is converted to/from internal energy (including temperature) + potential energy (altitude).
This time lapse video shows the daily minimum, median, and maximum values of the computed “vertical integral of energy conversion” hourly parameter from the ERA5 reanalysis for 2022. Values for each 1/4 degree longitude gridpoint at 45N latitude are given. The vertical scale is from -10,000 to +10,000 W/m^2. The minor incremental radiative absorbing power of non-condensing GHGs such as CO2, CH4, and N2O vanishes on the vertical scale as the rapidly changing energy conversion in both directions is tens to thousands of times greater.
So what? The assumed GHG “forcings” cannot be isolated for reliable attribution of reported surface warming. And with all the circulation and energy conversion throughout the depth of the troposphere, heat energy need not be expected to accumulate on land and in the oceans to harmful effect from incremental non-condensing GHGs. The GHGs add no energy to the land + ocean + atmosphere system. Therefore the radiative properties of CO2, CH4, and N2O, and other molecules of similar nature, should not be assumed to produce a perturbing climate “forcing.” The concept of energy conversion helps us understand the self-regulating delivery of energy to high altitude for just enough longwave radiation to be emitted to space.
“2. Energy, available potential energy, and gross static stability Of the various forms of energy present in the atmosphere, kinetic energy has often received the most attention. Often the total kinetic energy of a weather system is regarded as a measure of its intensity. The only other forms of atmospheric energy which appear to play a major role in the kinetic energy budget of the troposphere and lower stratosphere are potential energy, internal energy, and the latent energy of water vapor. Potential and internal energy may be transformed directly into kinetic energy, while latent energy may be transformed directly into internal energy, which is then transformed into kinetic energy. It is easily shown by means of the hydrostatic approximation that the changes of the potential energy P and the internal energy l of the whole atmosphere are approximately proportional, so that it is convenient to regard potential and internal energy as constituting a single form of energy. This form has been called total potential energy by Margules (1903). … In the long run, there must be a net depletion of kinetic energy by dissipative processes. It follows that there must be an equal net generation of kinetic energy by reversible adiabatic processes; this generation must occur at the expense of total potential energy. It follows in turn that there must be an equal net generation of total potential energy by heating of all kinds. These three steps comprise the basic energy cycle of the atmosphere. The rate at which these steps proceed is a fundamental characteristic of the general circulation.””
David, you clearly put a lot of effort into this. It is useful to visualize data. Here we see another example of where the effects, if they are not altogether illusory, are hopelessly small relative to the dynamic chaos of the climate system.
Myriad other processes, similarly small, or potentially larger may well be in play to counteract what may still be a very real effect of an enhancement of the greenhouse effect. To say that we cannot isolate a tiny effect in a chaos of dynamic effects is not to negate the reality of the tiny effect.
As I’m sure you acknowledge, energy does not ‘disappear’. A very small effect, impossible to isolate, yet persistent over a very long period of time, must still have its effect.
Forcing is a very unfortunate abstraction. It implies that some ‘back-radiation’ warms the surface. No! The sun warms the surface. Only the sun! The enhanced greenhouse effect acts to reduce the rate of cooling so that heating by the sun gradually ‘accumulates’.
As I said, there may well be other processes, poorly understood, emergent phenomena, that counteract the enhanced greenhouse effect, even perhaps negating the effect. That would not prove that the enhanced greenhouse effect doesn’t exist, it would only mean that it is insignificant but real. (Something like Republicans in Massachusetts—they do exist, but they are totally overwhelmed by the Democrats. Just because they have no effect doesn’t mean that they are not real).
If that is true, then it should also become apparent that in a chaotic dynamic system, sometimes the enhanced greenhouse effect might be negated and even reversed, while other times it might be reinforced and further enhanced. Think of the string of recent record warm anomalies as compared to earlier “pauses”.
“As I’m sure you acknowledge, energy does not ‘disappear’.” Correct. The energy does not persist in its “warming” (i.e. sensible heat) form.
I would also like to point out that Lorenz’ “dissipative processes” involves emission of longwave radiation to space from the atmosphere itself. And “heating of all kinds” includes the absorption of longwave radiation from the surface.
So as Pat Frank has correctly pointed out, “no one knows” that the reported warming is because of incremental GHGs.
Yet intellectual integrity demands that we do not transmogrify “no one knows that warming is due to incremental GHGs” to “incremental GHGs can’t have any effect”.
I do think that there’s ample evidence to say that incremental GHGs have at most produced a beneficial effect. And also that if that is the effect of the fossil fuels we have burnt so far, we don’t have enough fossil fuels left to produce anything but a further benefit.
Thanks for your comments, Rich. Please don’t take away that I am claiming “incremental GHGs can’t have any effect.” I don’t take issue with the longwave radiative effect of incremental GHGs. I am pointing out that expecting the energy involved in the incremental radiative coupling between the surface and the atmosphere to end up accumulating down here is not realistic in recognition of how the atmosphere operates.
Second sentence should start “They include…”. Grrr.
One more clarification – the “forcings” and “feedbacks” I am talking about are those relating to non-condensing GHGs.
Very interesting. I’ve often thought that kinetic energy is given short shrift in much of weather science. Consider that a pound of dry at the equator at 80 C, that’s just riding along with the equator at over 1000 MPH in still air, gives up around 7 Watt-hours of thermal energy getting to the North Pole at an average temperature of 0 C, but it gives up around 14 Watt-hours of kinetic energy to get to 0 speed.
Of course, there are a few extra ‘minor’ details like water vapor, rotation, lapse rates, phase changes, solar energy, etc. Nevertheless, it seems to me that kinetic energy should also be considered in the mix (and in the models).
Thank you for your comment. I would like to point out that the numerical atmospheric models – all of them, whether for weather prediction, reanalysis, or climate simulation – do indeed consider kinetic energy. I appreciate ERA5 for producing hourly values of kinetic energy, total energy, and other related parameters such as energy conversion, by grid cell, which this post examines.
Typical ugly weather in the NE- mostly cold and damp. A few degrees warmer, on average, would be a vast improvement. Here, most of us spend most of the year saying “when is this s*itty weather gonna get better?”.
Nice work, Steve, but you should remove the word Month. Fly it everywhere all the time no matter how incongruous or inappropriate the venue, like that other flag. Start a Carbon Studies program in all the universities. Oh, wait—Organic Chemistry, that’s already a thing.
Well, you also should remove the word Pride. Carbon is a blessing, pride is a deadly sin. I’d call it the Carbon Blessing Flag.
1) Have you yourself lived in a “car-free city” (say, for over one continuous year)?
2) Have you yourself lived for any length of time (say, over one continuous year) without using any automobile, including taxis, Uber vehicles, Lyft vehicles, etc.)?
As was once said referring to advice offered by the Pope: “You no play-a da game, you no make-a da rules!”
I agree that cities with a lot fewer cars are nicer to live in. But the greens as usual only see half of the problem, whichever way they go.
Half of them want to just replace all the ICE cars with EVs, which they expect to fuel from wind turbines, and they think this will make everything all right. Its nuts of course, even if the wind turbines could generate enough reliable power for them you would still have the air quality problem of higher particulate emissions caused by heavier vehicles, you’d still have accidents and congestion, so your last state would be no better, and perhaps worse, than your first.
The other half want to just make driving increasingly difficult so that people give up on cars, but without realizing that its not just about stopping people driving, its about a whole raft of changes which have to occur to make the low traffic neighborhood convenient and indeed possible to live in. If there is one supermarket a few miles away and people can no longer drive to it, what are they to do? Same with your place of work. Same with kids schools. The time to think of all that is before you start banning cars. But they never do.
I am roughly sympathetic to the aim of reducing car traffic, and particularly through car traffic through residential and shopping neighborhoods. But totally unsympathetic to the half-assed ways the greens are trying to go about getting there. As usual, just not thinking anything through.
Hey!
If people are free to choose whether or not to live in a “Car-Free City”, let them.
If people choose not to pick up hitchhikers leaving those cities…?
If those people really love it. Fine.
Would you have Government force the rest of live like that?
PS How big would this imagined “City” be?
I’m almost 70 and I actually could walk to my nearest supermarket. Might be tough to carry back a week’s worth of groceries though.
Oak Ridge TN in July 1945 was exactly that. There were few cars, buses to get you to the train and about 9 town centers for about 40,000 people. Very walkable, no privately owned housing. The other “secret cities” were likely the same.
That didn’t last long after the war.
strativarius
March 24, 2024 4:35 am
Recent ‘experience’ has shown that a green job is in fact a job that has ceased to be.
“Labour says fallout from Tata decision to close blast furnaces at steelworks will be felt for decades
It’s going to be far worse than the 1980s; it isn’t about a few Sunset industries this time around. This time everything is in flux – in and out of the home. This is a small appetiser for the net zero project. And the newly redundant Port Talbot workers will still be expected to get an heat pump, an EV etc etc etc just the same. Nobody wants to point out that the climate Emperor is stark bollock naked.
“By 2030, there could be 694,000 green jobs in the low-carbon and renewable energy sector” and by that The Guardian is really telling its gullible readership that by 2030 there will be at least 640,000 redundancies – no job, ergo no need to travel, no resources for said job needed etc a green win.
It’s high time the journalists educated themselves – as they like to say. The Guardian and the media etc have long championed the net zero agenda and Port Talbot is the first major greenwash we’ve encountered as a result.
Everybody knew it was £500million sweetener to kick thousands out of work, just as they knew lockdowns were wholly destructive. And now the Guardian laments…
“The closure of the Port Talbot plant in south Wales will send economic shockwaves through the region. “
What the people at the Guardian really need to ‘think through’ is that when (not if) their desired socialist utopia ultimately fails to deliver the goods, the regime will no longer consider them as ‘useful idiots’ but ‘useless eaters’, and act accordingly.
I saw this letter to the editor in the March issue of Astronomy:
Truth in Naming
“I enjoyed reading “Where is our super-Earth?”, but I also had to grit my teeth the whole time. Why? It’s this super-Earth term that appears on the cover and in the title, and gets repeated throughout.
Who came up with that label for a class of planets, the members of which are likely to be less Earth-like than Mercury, Venus and Mars? Worlds that are tidally locked, blasted with radiation, and have crushing gavity can hardly be considered Earth-like in any meaningful way. This matters because repeated use of the term in the popular media gives the public the perception that many Earth-like worlds have already been discovered. I feel that the scientific community is doing a disservice to the public by perpetrating such a misleading term for these worlds. Randall Henderson, Warrenton, OR.”
The editor of Astronomy had no reply to Randall, but at least he did print the letter.
I agree wholeheartedly with Randall. This term has been a pet peeve of mine also. It is misleading to call them super-Earths, just because they are rocky planets.
To date, no planet similar to Earth and its solar system configuration has been discovered. There have been some Earth-sized planets discovered, but they are not Earth-like (life sustaining) in any other fashion.
Thanks for speaking for me, Randall. You said it perfectly.
Science needs to be as precise as possible. Proper Descriptions are important.
I wasn’t defining the whole range of possibilties for life on other planets, I was talking about Earth-like conditions. I wouldn’t doubt there is a lot of life in underground oceans on numerous planets, and moons, but that’s not Earth-like life. It’s not a place where I would look forward to relocating.
Science does need to be as precise as possible. You disagree?
Science can be precise as possible and still not quite get it right, but not getting it right is not an excuse for not trying to get it right and trying to be precise as possible in the process.
As regards “as precise as possible”, I love this refinement: “It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible.”
— attributed to Aristotle
Richard Greene
March 24, 2024 5:14 am
There is a Climate Crisis It is 50 years of demonizing beneficial CO2 leading to Nut Zero, the latest name for The Green New Ordeal.
The Energy Transition is happening whether we like it or not. It’s a total waste of money but leftists don’t care. Their goal is to micromanage our lives, so money is no object. They don’t even care if the Energy Transition is not feasible or affordable. They just live to control others. It’s called fascism.
91 felony charges and $600 million of fines aimed at Donald Trump is exhibit A. If the fascist Democrats think putting Trump in prison is the only way to win the 2024 election, they have the power to do that. One felony conviction is all they need.
Spending money and building infrastructure and EVs are the inputs of an energy transition.
A change in the percentage of hydrocarbon fuels used for global primary energy, and reduced CO2 emissions, is the expected output.
That expected output is handicapped by about 175 nations, with almost seven billion population combined, having no interest in Nut Zero
Of the approximately 20 nations that claim to be taking Nut Zero seriously, the US has made the most progress in lowering CO2 emissions by using less coal to generate electricity.
There is an energy transition Mainly inputs to the process Not much output Nut Zero is the worst investment since I bought 25% of the Brooklyn Bridge for my retirement portfolio
Solar and Wind Power
Renewable electricity capacity additions reached an estimated 507 GW in 2023, almost 50% higher than in 2022, with continuous policy support in more than 130 countries spurring a significant change in the global growth trend.
Additional renewable electricity capacity reached 507 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, with solar PV making up three-quarters of global additions, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2023 report.
How much solar was installed in 2023? Global Solar Deployment
Analysts estimate 350 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of photovoltaics (PV) were installed globally in 2023 (though recent data have indicated that number could be more like 440 GWdc); global installations are expected to increase to 400 GWdc in 2024 and 590 GWdc by 2027
Following two consecutive years of decline, onshore wind capacity additions are on course to rebound by 70% in 2023 to 107 GW, an all-time record amount.
Electric Vehicles January 2024
BEVs: about *9,493,040 (up 30%) and 11% market share. PHEVs: about *4,196,251 (up 47%) and 5% market share. Total: 13,689,291 (up 35%) and 16% market share.
February 2024
In February 2024, battery-electric car sales grew by a modest 9% to 106,187 units, maintaining a stable market share of 12%. Among the four largest markets, Belgium (+66.9%), France (+31.8%), and the Netherlands (+20.9%) saw significant double-digit gains, while registrations in Germany declined by 15.4%.
February 2024 Ford BEV Sales
up 80% from February 2023
Richard Greene
(BS, MBA, DRCS)
DRCS = Don Rickles Charm School
WUWT downvote champion
Bingham Farms. Michigan
… where we LOVE global warming and our plants LOVE more CO2
Worse than buying the Brooklyn Bridge, “You’ll own nothing and be happy.”
Lawfare as a mechanism to confiscate private property is becoming obvious. The Trump case in NY is being discussed in the MSM but they’re not discussing thousands of cases of illegal immigrants and other squatters taking over private residences. Squatters are using leftists laws to even have the lawful property owners arrested, when they try to evict squatters or even refuse to leave their own property.
Even if sanity prevails in the end, it’s a costly endeavor for property owners. I’m not liking the looks of this transition.
Now, Biden wants to nationalize zoning rules. Biden and his radical Democrat cronies want to decide how your city is laid out and where people should live and not live. They don’t want you tp purchase a private home. They want you to live in one of their new high-rise government apartment complexes.
You will have nothing, and you will be happy, says Joe.
There has been no energy transition. Since 1980 the consumption of fossil fuels has nearly doubled and still provide about 80% of our energy. What there has been is a lot of very expensive effort to add inefficient, unreliable energy sources to the economy for the benefit of wealthy crony capitalists and politicians. In 10-20 years there will be nothing left of these efforts except for broken down wind turbines and abandoned solar farms that will require tax-payer money to remove. Junk yards and landfills will be resting places for turbine blades, solar panels and EVs too expensive to recycle.
It’s become known that the conversion of voice and data communication to wireless and the abandonment of land line telephony means that thousands of miles of lead-shielded comm cable has been abandoned in place and has the potential to release lead into neighborhoods. Removal of this abandoned cable, if deemed necessary, will require billions of dollars. As of yet, nothing has been done.
There are reasons that lead was chosen. Among them, is that lead is not very soluble and hence not particularly mobile in the ground. It usually develops a passive oxide coating that is even more insoluble than native lead. Many gun ranges ‘mine’ their target ground for lead bullets every few years and recover the lead that has stayed in place those years.
In the US there was a transition from coal to cheaper natural gas for electricity generation, which lowered CO2 emissions. That reduced CO2 emissions, which is the goal of the transition.
I think leftists love any word that starts with a “trans”.
Mars attracts: How the Red Planet influences Earth’s climate and seas
News
By Robert Lea
published 12 March 2024
“We were surprised to find these 2.4-million-year cycles in our deep-sea sedimentary data.”
“Scientists have discovered geological evidence that the gravitational interaction between Mars and Earth drives a 2.4-million-year cycle of deep-sea circulation and global warming.
The surprising link between Mars and Earth’s seas and climate sees deep currents wax and wane, and this connects to periods of increased solar energy and a warmer climate. The research could help reveal how climate change over geological timescales — not the type humanity is currently causing via the emission of greenhouse gases — affects the circulation of the oceans.”
end excerpt
Mars affects the Earth’s oceans and weather, so what about all the other planets?
I don’t think the climate science of Earth is settled yet. Have the climate alarmists figured Mars into their computer models?
Well, I agree with you that The Science ™ is not settled of course, but a a 2.4 million year period is essentially no change during recorded history and the magnitude is not clear. It may be real but is it significant?
Some time ago I came across this paper about ocean tide effects on the climate. Keeling and Whorf 2000. Yes, THAT Charles Keeling of the Keeling curve record of CO2 concentrations.
It must be a WordPress “feature”, some can and others cannot. I thought it might have been an ad blocker problem, but I tried a different browser and still don’t get the image button.
Ditto! I submitted a *.png link recently, expecting it to be a graph, and it just showed the URL.
Russell Cook
March 24, 2024 8:49 am
In suggesting two weeks ago that fossil fuel companies should be charged with climate homicide, an article author claimed those companies knew CAGW was being caused by them, and rather than admit it, the companies concealed what they knew and ran disinformation campaigns to trick the public into thinking everything was just fine. His source for that accusation was a 2022 Doctor of Philosophy PhD degree thesis. The good ‘doctor’ source just happens to be one of the participants in several of Naomi Oreskes’ “Friends of the Court” on behalf of the plaintiffs in “ExxonKnew”-style lawsuits.
When you see this particular climate change propaganda, you know Naomi Oreskes is involved in one way or another. She’s the “go-to” girl on this one. She is an accomplished alarmist climate change propagandist.
It’s amazing how far some people can go based on NO EVIDENCE that what they say is true about CO2 or anything else. It’s a case of we know they lie, and they know we know they lie, yet they keep on lying. Of course, that is the essence of propaganda: Tell a lie often enough, and people will believe it. And the bigger the lie, the better. So the climate alarmists just keep on lying and lying and lying.
Weather Kids Campaign takes centre stage for World Meteorological Day
Press Release
21 March 2024
The World Meteorological Organization has joined with the UN Development Programme and the Weather Company on a new Weather Kids campaign with weather forecasts from the future to mobilize climate action today on behalf of future generations.
Key messages:
World Meteorological Day celebrates At the Frontline of Climate Action
Weather Kids will be aired in more than 80 countries
Campaign mobilizes action on behalf of future generations
Climate crisis is the defining challenge for humanity
The campaign features children from around the world reading a fictitious – but scientifically-based – weather forecast. It was launched ahead of World Meteorological Day on 23 March which takes the theme At the Frontline of Climate Action.
The young TV meteorologists warn viewers that rising temperatures will continue to bring more of the catastrophic risks to people and the global economy, including a projected impact on 94% of the world’s children, threats to food security and a potential rise in taxpayers’ bills globally of trillions of US Dollars.
The segment ends with a powerful plea from the children: “It’s not just a weather report to us. It is our future.”
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) runs the ERA5 reanalysis model. Why they include computed estimates of the forms of energy present in the atmosphere, and what is happening in respect to these forms of energy as the atmosphere circulates.
**************
Name
Vertical integral of energy conversion
Short name
viec
Unit
W m-2
Description
This parameter is one contribution to the amount of energy being converted between kinetic energy, and internal plus potential energy, for a column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere. Negative values indicate a conversion to kinetic energy from potential plus internal energy.
This parameter can be used to study the atmospheric energy budget. The circulation of the atmosphere can also be considered in terms of energy conversions.
******************
Wow, I wonder how these values compare with the “forcings” and “feedbacks” that are expected to operate so as to drive heat energy into the oceans and on land?
I went and looked for myself.
https://youtu.be/hDurP-4gVrY
The “forcings” and “feedbacks” are a needle in a haystack, and the haystack gets shuffled constantly. Can these single-digit W/m^2 assumed fluxes ever be isolated for proper attribution of a gradual trend of surface temperature in the record of erratic surface temperatures? How, exactly, would that be accomplished?
Please read the entire text description at the Youtube video. I will also paste it below in a reply.
“Are CO2 emissions a risk to the climate? No. The static “warming” effect of incremental CO2 (~4 W/m^2 for 2XCO2) disappears as kinetic energy (wind) is converted to/from internal energy (including temperature) + potential energy (altitude).
This time lapse video shows the daily minimum, median, and maximum values of the computed “vertical integral of energy conversion” hourly parameter from the ERA5 reanalysis for 2022. Values for each 1/4 degree longitude gridpoint at 45N latitude are given. The vertical scale is from -10,000 to +10,000 W/m^2. The minor incremental radiative absorbing power of non-condensing GHGs such as CO2, CH4, and N2O vanishes on the vertical scale as the rapidly changing energy conversion in both directions is tens to thousands of times greater.
So what? The assumed GHG “forcings” cannot be isolated for reliable attribution of reported surface warming. And with all the circulation and energy conversion throughout the depth of the troposphere, heat energy need not be expected to accumulate on land and in the oceans to harmful effect from incremental non-condensing GHGs. The GHGs add no energy to the land + ocean + atmosphere system. Therefore the radiative properties of CO2, CH4, and N2O, and other molecules of similar nature, should not be assumed to produce a perturbing climate “forcing.” The concept of energy conversion helps us understand the self-regulating delivery of energy to high altitude for just enough longwave radiation to be emitted to space.
References:
The ERA5 reanalysis model is a product of ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The computed parameters “vertical integral of potential + internal energy” and “vertical integral of energy conversion” are described at these links.
https://codes.ecmwf.int/grib/param-db/?id=162061
https://codes.ecmwf.int/grib/param-db/?id=162064
Further comment:
This is for just one latitude band at 45N. Similar results were observed for 45S, 10N/S, 23.5N/S, and 66N/S.
More Background:
From Edward N. Lorenz (1960) “Energy and Numerical Weather Prediction”
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v12i4.9420
“2. Energy, available potential energy, and
gross static stability
Of the various forms of energy present in
the atmosphere, kinetic energy has often
received the most attention. Often the total
kinetic energy of a weather system is regarded
as a measure of its intensity. The only other
forms of atmospheric energy which appear
to play a major role in the kinetic energy
budget of the troposphere and lower stratosphere
are potential energy, internal energy, and the
latent energy of water vapor. Potential and
internal energy may be transformed directly
into kinetic energy, while latent energy may
be transformed directly into internal energy,
which is then transformed into kinetic energy.
It is easily shown by means of the hydrostatic
approximation that the changes of the
potential energy P and the internal energy l of
the whole atmosphere are approximately proportional,
so that it is convenient to regard
potential and internal energy as constituting
a single form of energy. This form has been
called total potential energy by Margules (1903).
…
In the long run, there must be a net depletion
of kinetic energy by dissipative processes. It
follows that there must be an equal net
generation of kinetic energy by reversible
adiabatic processes; this generation must occur
at the expense of total potential energy. It
follows in turn that there must be an equal net
generation of total potential energy by heating
of all kinds. These three steps comprise the
basic energy cycle of the atmosphere. The
rate at which these steps proceed is a fundamental
characteristic of the general circulation.””
David, you clearly put a lot of effort into this. It is useful to visualize data. Here we see another example of where the effects, if they are not altogether illusory, are hopelessly small relative to the dynamic chaos of the climate system.
Myriad other processes, similarly small, or potentially larger may well be in play to counteract what may still be a very real effect of an enhancement of the greenhouse effect. To say that we cannot isolate a tiny effect in a chaos of dynamic effects is not to negate the reality of the tiny effect.
As I’m sure you acknowledge, energy does not ‘disappear’. A very small effect, impossible to isolate, yet persistent over a very long period of time, must still have its effect.
Forcing is a very unfortunate abstraction. It implies that some ‘back-radiation’ warms the surface. No! The sun warms the surface. Only the sun! The enhanced greenhouse effect acts to reduce the rate of cooling so that heating by the sun gradually ‘accumulates’.
As I said, there may well be other processes, poorly understood, emergent phenomena, that counteract the enhanced greenhouse effect, even perhaps negating the effect. That would not prove that the enhanced greenhouse effect doesn’t exist, it would only mean that it is insignificant but real. (Something like Republicans in Massachusetts—they do exist, but they are totally overwhelmed by the Democrats. Just because they have no effect doesn’t mean that they are not real).
If that is true, then it should also become apparent that in a chaotic dynamic system, sometimes the enhanced greenhouse effect might be negated and even reversed, while other times it might be reinforced and further enhanced. Think of the string of recent record warm anomalies as compared to earlier “pauses”.
“As I’m sure you acknowledge, energy does not ‘disappear’.” Correct. The energy does not persist in its “warming” (i.e. sensible heat) form.
I would also like to point out that Lorenz’ “dissipative processes” involves emission of longwave radiation to space from the atmosphere itself. And “heating of all kinds” includes the absorption of longwave radiation from the surface.
So as Pat Frank has correctly pointed out, “no one knows” that the reported warming is because of incremental GHGs.
Yet intellectual integrity demands that we do not transmogrify “no one knows that warming is due to incremental GHGs” to “incremental GHGs can’t have any effect”.
I do think that there’s ample evidence to say that incremental GHGs have at most produced a beneficial effect. And also that if that is the effect of the fossil fuels we have burnt so far, we don’t have enough fossil fuels left to produce anything but a further benefit.
Thanks for your comments, Rich. Please don’t take away that I am claiming “incremental GHGs can’t have any effect.” I don’t take issue with the longwave radiative effect of incremental GHGs. I am pointing out that expecting the energy involved in the incremental radiative coupling between the surface and the atmosphere to end up accumulating down here is not realistic in recognition of how the atmosphere operates.
“The enhanced greenhouse effect acts to reduce the rate of cooling so that heating by the sun gradually ‘accumulates’.”
Does it???
Where is the evidence.. the scientific proof?
Net radiative flux is determined by temperature differences.
Only H2O has the ability to affect the atmospheric temperature gradient.
Second sentence should start “They include…”. Grrr.
One more clarification – the “forcings” and “feedbacks” I am talking about are those relating to non-condensing GHGs.
Very interesting. I’ve often thought that kinetic energy is given short shrift in much of weather science. Consider that a pound of dry at the equator at 80 C, that’s just riding along with the equator at over 1000 MPH in still air, gives up around 7 Watt-hours of thermal energy getting to the North Pole at an average temperature of 0 C, but it gives up around 14 Watt-hours of kinetic energy to get to 0 speed.
Of course, there are a few extra ‘minor’ details like water vapor, rotation, lapse rates, phase changes, solar energy, etc. Nevertheless, it seems to me that kinetic energy should also be considered in the mix (and in the models).
Thank you for your comment. I would like to point out that the numerical atmospheric models – all of them, whether for weather prediction, reanalysis, or climate simulation – do indeed consider kinetic energy. I appreciate ERA5 for producing hourly values of kinetic energy, total energy, and other related parameters such as energy conversion, by grid cell, which this post examines.
Remember, all change is bad.
It is doubly bad when the source is seen as a waste product rather than plant food.
Electric Vehicle.
If you’re a masochist, buy an EV. If you’re a sadist, you’ll enjoy this video.
The depreciation on ‘lectrics is shocking.
And the advertising is electrifying.
But hey, it uses the best electric motors Germany can build (buy).
Lusername will be along shortly to explain how this is a great deal.
After snowfall, frost in northeastern US.
Typical ugly weather in the NE- mostly cold and damp. A few degrees warmer, on average, would be a vast improvement. Here, most of us spend most of the year saying “when is this s*itty weather gonna get better?”.
Back down into the teens here this AM and tomorrow AM.
I love all things carbon.
Nice work, Steve, but you should remove the word Month. Fly it everywhere all the time no matter how incongruous or inappropriate the venue, like that other flag. Start a Carbon Studies program in all the universities. Oh, wait—Organic Chemistry, that’s already a thing.
Well, you also should remove the word Pride. Carbon is a blessing, pride is a deadly sin. I’d call it the Carbon Blessing Flag.
A “Carbon Blessing Flag” for we carbonistas.
Sleep well
They should highlight “no climate crisis” not “climate crisis”. Many people will only see the highlighted text.
Great Point! Thanks.
People Hate the Idea of Car-Free Cities—Until They Live in One
https://www.wired.com/story/car-free-cities-opposition/
Whether Powered By Electrons Or Molecules, Automobiles Are A Curse
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/03/09/whether-powered-by-electrons-or-molecules-automobiles-are-a-curse/
What car do you drive?
He’s 9, so it’s one of those little pedal jobbies.
Under a previous post he bragged about his new EV having 1,200 miles on it.
(Would even EV’s be allowed in a “car-free city”?)
Waiting @MyUsername
I hate the idea of cities. Cities are the curse, regimented and full of parasites.
Can you get one of these on the back of your bike? It fits in my car
Tell us how you’d move this in a car free city…
Donkey? 🙂
Not if it is a farting donkey.
Get real.
Cities are for the idiot class that want brunch options and yoga studios.
Show us the solar panels on your roof and your Tesla, uh-huh, you have neither. Typical climate hypocrite.
MyUsername,
1) Have you yourself lived in a “car-free city” (say, for over one continuous year)?
2) Have you yourself lived for any length of time (say, over one continuous year) without using any automobile, including taxis, Uber vehicles, Lyft vehicles, etc.)?
As was once said referring to advice offered by the Pope: “You no play-a da game, you no make-a da rules!”
He won’t answer.
Lusername the communist clown returns for an encore.
I agree that cities with a lot fewer cars are nicer to live in. But the greens as usual only see half of the problem, whichever way they go.
Half of them want to just replace all the ICE cars with EVs, which they expect to fuel from wind turbines, and they think this will make everything all right. Its nuts of course, even if the wind turbines could generate enough reliable power for them you would still have the air quality problem of higher particulate emissions caused by heavier vehicles, you’d still have accidents and congestion, so your last state would be no better, and perhaps worse, than your first.
The other half want to just make driving increasingly difficult so that people give up on cars, but without realizing that its not just about stopping people driving, its about a whole raft of changes which have to occur to make the low traffic neighborhood convenient and indeed possible to live in. If there is one supermarket a few miles away and people can no longer drive to it, what are they to do? Same with your place of work. Same with kids schools. The time to think of all that is before you start banning cars. But they never do.
I am roughly sympathetic to the aim of reducing car traffic, and particularly through car traffic through residential and shopping neighborhoods. But totally unsympathetic to the half-assed ways the greens are trying to go about getting there. As usual, just not thinking anything through.
Ok.. go live in your little life-destroying ghetto… we don’t care.
but stop trying to tell everyone else they have to do it !
Create an empty soul-less city with no cars…. then see how many people move to live there.
… don’t force it on people who don’t want it.
Hey!
If people are free to choose whether or not to live in a “Car-Free City”, let them.
If people choose not to pick up hitchhikers leaving those cities…?
If those people really love it. Fine.
Would you have Government force the rest of live like that?
PS How big would this imagined “City” be?
I’m almost 70 and I actually could walk to my nearest supermarket. Might be tough to carry back a week’s worth of groceries though.
Will we be allowed wagons?
You could put wheels on the wagon..
…. and a motor to allow you to get uphill or lug a heavy load of groceries
(if you are “allowed” to buy them, that is).
And seats for yourself and a couple friends..
You might have to shop daily to be able to carry the groceries in a backpack or a small wagon.
Oak Ridge TN in July 1945 was exactly that. There were few cars, buses to get you to the train and about 9 town centers for about 40,000 people. Very walkable, no privately owned housing. The other “secret cities” were likely the same.
That didn’t last long after the war.
Recent ‘experience’ has shown that a green job is in fact a job that has ceased to be.
“Labour says fallout from Tata decision to close blast furnaces at steelworks will be felt for decades
‘Am I going to be homeless in June?’: workers fear return to 1980s”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/24/south-wales-heading-for-thatcher-era-shock-as-port-talbot-closures-loom-labour
It’s going to be far worse than the 1980s; it isn’t about a few Sunset industries this time around. This time everything is in flux – in and out of the home. This is a small appetiser for the net zero project. And the newly redundant Port Talbot workers will still be expected to get an heat pump, an EV etc etc etc just the same. Nobody wants to point out that the climate Emperor is stark bollock naked.
“By 2030, there could be 694,000 green jobs in the low-carbon and renewable energy sector” and by that The Guardian is really telling its gullible readership that by 2030 there will be at least 640,000 redundancies – no job, ergo no need to travel, no resources for said job needed etc a green win.
It’s high time the journalists educated themselves – as they like to say. The Guardian and the media etc have long championed the net zero agenda and Port Talbot is the first major greenwash we’ve encountered as a result.
Everybody knew it was £500million sweetener to kick thousands out of work, just as they knew lockdowns were wholly destructive. And now the Guardian laments…
“The closure of the Port Talbot plant in south Wales will send economic shockwaves through the region. “
Should have thought it through. They never do.
What the people at the Guardian really need to ‘think through’ is that when (not if) their desired socialist utopia ultimately fails to deliver the goods, the regime will no longer consider them as ‘useful idiots’ but ‘useless eaters’, and act accordingly.
A ‘green job’.
That’s what AOC promises, but after getting to know her better, she fails to provide.
I saw this letter to the editor in the March issue of Astronomy:
Truth in Naming
“I enjoyed reading “Where is our super-Earth?”, but I also had to grit my teeth the whole time. Why? It’s this super-Earth term that appears on the cover and in the title, and gets repeated throughout.
Who came up with that label for a class of planets, the members of which are likely to be less Earth-like than Mercury, Venus and Mars? Worlds that are tidally locked, blasted with radiation, and have crushing gavity can hardly be considered Earth-like in any meaningful way. This matters because repeated use of the term in the popular media gives the public the perception that many Earth-like worlds have already been discovered. I feel that the scientific community is doing a disservice to the public by perpetrating such a misleading term for these worlds. Randall Henderson, Warrenton, OR.”
The editor of Astronomy had no reply to Randall, but at least he did print the letter.
I agree wholeheartedly with Randall. This term has been a pet peeve of mine also. It is misleading to call them super-Earths, just because they are rocky planets.
To date, no planet similar to Earth and its solar system configuration has been discovered. There have been some Earth-sized planets discovered, but they are not Earth-like (life sustaining) in any other fashion.
Thanks for speaking for me, Randall. You said it perfectly.
Science needs to be as precise as possible. Proper Descriptions are important.
New Super Mercury Discovery would not garner clicks of course.
As if humans, with all their current hubris, know how to define the range of possible life forms throughout this marvelous universe.
For example, the “scientific community” of humans once argued that photosynthesis was the basis for all life that existed on Earth . . . but then abundant life was discovered in and around deep ocean thermal vents absent sunlight (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/survival-at-hydrothermal-vents.html and https://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-weirdest-life.html ), and then the nematode H. mephisto (aka “worm from hell”) was discovered living in water-filled crevices in “solid” rock nearly a mile underground (https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/0603/Worms-from-Hell-How-deep-do-they-dig )
Now, you were saying something about science needing to be as precise as possible . . .
I wasn’t defining the whole range of possibilties for life on other planets, I was talking about Earth-like conditions. I wouldn’t doubt there is a lot of life in underground oceans on numerous planets, and moons, but that’s not Earth-like life. It’s not a place where I would look forward to relocating.
Science does need to be as precise as possible. You disagree?
Science can be precise as possible and still not quite get it right, but not getting it right is not an excuse for not trying to get it right and trying to be precise as possible in the process.
I’m not sure what you are complaining about.
Not complaining, just observing.
As regards “as precise as possible”, I love this refinement:
“It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible.”
— attributed to Aristotle
There is a Climate Crisis
It is 50 years of demonizing beneficial CO2 leading to Nut Zero, the latest name for The Green New Ordeal.
The Energy Transition is happening whether we like it or not. It’s a total waste of money but leftists don’t care. Their goal is to micromanage our lives, so money is no object. They don’t even care if the Energy Transition is not feasible or affordable. They just live to control others. It’s called fascism.
91 felony charges and $600 million of fines aimed at Donald Trump is exhibit A. If the fascist Democrats think putting Trump in prison is the only way to win the 2024 election, they have the power to do that. One felony conviction is all they need.
Spending money and building infrastructure and EVs are the inputs of an energy transition.
A change in the percentage of hydrocarbon fuels used for global primary energy, and reduced CO2 emissions, is the expected output.
That expected output is handicapped by about 175 nations, with almost seven billion population combined, having no interest in Nut Zero
Of the approximately 20 nations that claim to be taking Nut Zero seriously, the US has made the most progress in lowering CO2 emissions by using less coal to generate electricity.
There is an energy transition
Mainly inputs to the process
Not much output
Nut Zero is the worst investment since I bought 25% of the Brooklyn Bridge for my retirement portfolio
Solar and Wind Power
Renewable electricity capacity additions reached an estimated 507 GW in 2023, almost 50% higher than in 2022, with continuous policy support in more than 130 countries spurring a significant change in the global growth trend.
Additional renewable electricity capacity reached 507 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, with solar PV making up three-quarters of global additions, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2023 report.
How much solar was installed in 2023?
Global Solar Deployment
Analysts estimate 350 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of photovoltaics (PV) were installed globally in 2023 (though recent data have indicated that number could be more like 440 GWdc); global installations are expected to increase to 400 GWdc in 2024 and 590 GWdc by 2027
Following two consecutive years of decline, onshore wind capacity additions are on course to rebound by 70% in 2023 to 107 GW, an all-time record amount.
Electric Vehicles
January 2024
BEVs: about *9,493,040 (up 30%) and 11% market share. PHEVs: about *4,196,251 (up 47%) and 5% market share. Total: 13,689,291 (up 35%) and 16% market share.
February 2024
In February 2024, battery-electric car sales grew by a modest 9% to 106,187 units, maintaining a stable market share of 12%. Among the four largest markets, Belgium (+66.9%), France (+31.8%), and the Netherlands (+20.9%) saw significant double-digit gains, while registrations in Germany declined by 15.4%.
February 2024 Ford BEV Sales
up 80% from February 2023
Richard Greene
(BS, MBA, DRCS)
DRCS = Don Rickles Charm School
WUWT downvote champion
Bingham Farms. Michigan
… where we LOVE global warming and our plants LOVE more CO2
The Honest Climate Science and Energy Blog
Worse than buying the Brooklyn Bridge, “You’ll own nothing and be happy.”
Lawfare as a mechanism to confiscate private property is becoming obvious. The Trump case in NY is being discussed in the MSM but they’re not discussing thousands of cases of illegal immigrants and other squatters taking over private residences. Squatters are using leftists laws to even have the lawful property owners arrested, when they try to evict squatters or even refuse to leave their own property.
Even if sanity prevails in the end, it’s a costly endeavor for property owners. I’m not liking the looks of this transition.
It is all raw unadulterated communism: property cannot be held by private citizens, only by the state.
Now, Biden wants to nationalize zoning rules. Biden and his radical Democrat cronies want to decide how your city is laid out and where people should live and not live. They don’t want you tp purchase a private home. They want you to live in one of their new high-rise government apartment complexes.
You will have nothing, and you will be happy, says Joe.
There has been no energy transition. Since 1980 the consumption of fossil fuels has nearly doubled and still provide about 80% of our energy. What there has been is a lot of very expensive effort to add inefficient, unreliable energy sources to the economy for the benefit of wealthy crony capitalists and politicians. In 10-20 years there will be nothing left of these efforts except for broken down wind turbines and abandoned solar farms that will require tax-payer money to remove. Junk yards and landfills will be resting places for turbine blades, solar panels and EVs too expensive to recycle.
It’s become known that the conversion of voice and data communication to wireless and the abandonment of land line telephony means that thousands of miles of lead-shielded comm cable has been abandoned in place and has the potential to release lead into neighborhoods. Removal of this abandoned cable, if deemed necessary, will require billions of dollars. As of yet, nothing has been done.
There are reasons that lead was chosen. Among them, is that lead is not very soluble and hence not particularly mobile in the ground. It usually develops a passive oxide coating that is even more insoluble than native lead. Many gun ranges ‘mine’ their target ground for lead bullets every few years and recover the lead that has stayed in place those years.
Yep. The share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption has has only fallen from 86% in 1997 to around 82% in 2022
.But this small decline ignores the fact that in 2022 the world consumed almost 55% more energy from fossil fuels than it did in 1997
“When we assess the challenges realistically, we must conclude that the world free of fossil fuels by 2050 is highly unlikely”
Vaclav Smil ‘Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon is a Highly Unlikely Outcome’
In the US there was a transition from coal to cheaper natural gas for electricity generation, which lowered CO2 emissions. That reduced CO2 emissions, which is the goal of the transition.
I think leftists love any word that starts with a “trans”.
Um, no; you’re a long, long ways behind AnalJ.
And he’s bringing up the rear with nyogi and The Futile Wail.
Back when Grif was regular contributor, I think he set some records for the number of comment down-votes.
I like your pseudo-scientific posts, because I like to laugh a lot 😀
https://www.space.com/mars-gravity-influences-earth-climate-seas
Mars attracts: How the Red Planet influences Earth’s climate and seas
News
By Robert Lea
published 12 March 2024
“We were surprised to find these 2.4-million-year cycles in our deep-sea sedimentary data.”
“Scientists have discovered geological evidence that the gravitational interaction between Mars and Earth drives a 2.4-million-year cycle of deep-sea circulation and global warming.
The surprising link between Mars and Earth’s seas and climate sees deep currents wax and wane, and this connects to periods of increased solar energy and a warmer climate. The research could help reveal how climate change over geological timescales — not the type humanity is currently causing via the emission of greenhouse gases — affects the circulation of the oceans.”
end excerpt
Mars affects the Earth’s oceans and weather, so what about all the other planets?
I don’t think the climate science of Earth is settled yet. Have the climate alarmists figured Mars into their computer models?
Well, I agree with you that The Science ™ is not settled of course, but a a 2.4 million year period is essentially no change during recorded history and the magnitude is not clear. It may be real but is it significant?
Good questions.
Some time ago I came across this paper about ocean tide effects on the climate. Keeling and Whorf 2000. Yes, THAT Charles Keeling of the Keeling curve record of CO2 concentrations.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.070047197
Thanks for the link.
Would you like to study to become a doctor? What about a climate activist?
How about both? If so, go to Med School at UCLA where one is subversely planted into the other.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/ucla-medical-school-trains-future-doctors-climate-activists-leaked-docs-show.amp
Double experts!
How about the beeb acknowledging that Scotland can make nut zero on time, possibly at all?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgrv45ed1po.amp
Not make?
Doh!
Cannot, won’t, shan’t, never, etc.
Somehow I missed all the possible correct negatives!
strange how often that happens , is it !
I seem to have lost the option to insert an image in comments. Is this a fluke or has that been suspended?
Same.
It must be a WordPress “feature”, some can and others cannot. I thought it might have been an ad blocker problem, but I tried a different browser and still don’t get the image button.
I tried the same thing. Different laptop, different browser. Same results.
Some text, below the direct link to the picture, best as JPG.
Or are you talking from uploading a picture ?
The latter. As recently as last week I was able to upload images, charts, etc. Now there is no image icon that allows the procedure.
May depend on the browser you are using. I use Firefox
I use Firefox too, and yesterday could not insert a picture. The picture icon is now showing up on this comment.
let’s see
I agree. I lost the ability to upload images right after subscribing. I assumed someone was working on getting it fixed. Maybe not.
I just reloaded the “Open Thread” page and I see a button on the lower right in the comment box that allows one to upload pictures.
I also see the same attach-image button in the lower right of this comment box.
I’m using the Firefox browser.
Nope. Browser does not seem to make a difference.
Ditto! I submitted a *.png link recently, expecting it to be a graph, and it just showed the URL.
In suggesting two weeks ago that fossil fuel companies should be charged with climate homicide, an article author claimed those companies knew CAGW was being caused by them, and rather than admit it, the companies concealed what they knew and ran disinformation campaigns to trick the public into thinking everything was just fine. His source for that accusation was a 2022 Doctor of Philosophy PhD degree thesis. The good ‘doctor’ source just happens to be one of the participants in several of Naomi Oreskes’ “Friends of the Court” on behalf of the plaintiffs in “ExxonKnew”-style lawsuits.
“Reposition Graduate Degrees as Theory rather than Fact — the Climate Homicide Litigation version“
That’s the “Naomi Oreskes” “Exxon Knew” meme.
When you see this particular climate change propaganda, you know Naomi Oreskes is involved in one way or another. She’s the “go-to” girl on this one. She is an accomplished alarmist climate change propagandist.
It’s amazing how far some people can go based on NO EVIDENCE that what they say is true about CO2 or anything else. It’s a case of we know they lie, and they know we know they lie, yet they keep on lying. Of course, that is the essence of propaganda: Tell a lie often enough, and people will believe it. And the bigger the lie, the better. So the climate alarmists just keep on lying and lying and lying.
More authoritarianism from the WMO. Now, they want to use kids to promote their CO2-is-Bad propaganda.
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/weather-kids-campaign-takes-centre-stage-world-meteorological-day
Weather Kids Campaign takes centre stage for World Meteorological Day
Press Release
21 March 2024
The World Meteorological Organization has joined with the UN Development Programme and the Weather Company on a new Weather Kids campaign with weather forecasts from the future to mobilize climate action today on behalf of future generations.
Key messages:
World Meteorological Day celebrates At the Frontline of Climate Action
Weather Kids will be aired in more than 80 countries
Campaign mobilizes action on behalf of future generations
Climate crisis is the defining challenge for humanity
The campaign features children from around the world reading a fictitious – but scientifically-based – weather forecast. It was launched ahead of World Meteorological Day on 23 March which takes the theme At the Frontline of Climate Action.
The young TV meteorologists warn viewers that rising temperatures will continue to bring more of the catastrophic risks to people and the global economy, including a projected impact on 94% of the world’s children, threats to food security and a potential rise in taxpayers’ bills globally of trillions of US Dollars.
The segment ends with a powerful plea from the children: “It’s not just a weather report to us. It is our future.”
end except
Since everyone green hates big business and it’s all a conspiracy, big oil and big plastic knew!
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/the-plastic-industry-knowingly-pushed-recycling-myth-for-decades-new-report-finds