The Week That Was: 2023-09-30 (September 30, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits; it is evidently equally foolish to accept probable reasoning from a mathematician and to demand from a rhetorician demonstrative proofs.”— Aristotle, The Nicomachean Ethics (from Goodreads)
Number of the Week: 64 percent of the world’s caloric intake
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The following topics are discussed below. The UN’s definition of sustainability and its principal goals of sustainable development are inconsistent with the policies of the UN and its followers in western nations. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a new head, who may or may not be an improvement.
Atmospheric scientists Roy Spencer and John Christy who developed the method of using satellite instruments to measure atmospheric temperature trends may have had a publishing breakthrough in western journals that have censored papers that question the findings of the IPCC since the 1990s.
Calling this summer, the hottest summer in the US may have been a misinterpretation of data. The questioning of the goals of net zero (no increase in carbon dioxide emissions) appears to be increasing in the UK. Washington continues to clamp down on oil and electricity production and may lead to sharply increasing oil prices and inflation.
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Abnormal Thinking? The Mayo Clinic defines schizophrenia as a
“…serious mental disorder in which people interpret reality abnormally. Schizophrenia may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions, and extremely disordered thinking and behavior…”
In advocating that only Congress, not the administration, has the power to determine how to implement the UN goals of sustainable development Michael Curley writes:
“‘Sustainability’ is a word that was seldom heard until the latter part of the 20th Century. In October of 1987, the United Nations’ World Commission on Environment and Development issued a report entitled ‘Our Common Future.’ This document defined – for the first time – the term ‘sustainable development’ as ‘development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’
TWTW notes, that under the Sustainable Development goals by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, goal #7 is:
“Ensure Assessable to Affordable, Reliable, Sustainable and Modern Energy for All”
But what is sustainable about solar power that goes out every night or wind power that disappears at the whims of nature? Further,
Goal # 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere
Goal # 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.
An August report by Our World in Data states the new definition of extreme poverty by the UN is living on less than $2.15 per day in adjusted dollars. Our World in Data calculates that in 1990, 31% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty. In 2018, the last year the data is available, those in extreme poverty fell to 10% of the world’s population. This is a remarkable decline of cutting extreme poverty by two-thirds, 67% in less than 30 years. Most of this remarkable decline occurred in China and South Asia, including India, which ignore the UN’s false claims that carbon dioxide emissions are causing dangerous global warming.
Further, deaths from starvation, and related diseases, are falling. The world is producing more food than ever before, and crop yields are increasing. Today, hunger and undernourishment are calculated, not deaths due to starvation. According the August report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO):
“World cereal production in 2023/24 seen on par with the 2021 record outturn.”
Further,
“Pegged at 878 million tonnes [metric tons], the forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2023/2024 seasons is unchanged from July, pointing to an increase of 18.6 million tonnes (2.2 percent) above opening levels. The resulting world stocks-to-use ratio for cereals in 2023/24 would be 30.5 percent, nearly unchanged from the 2022/23 level of 30.6 percent, and indicating an overall comfortable global supply level from a historical perspective.”
There are inequities, but there is no mass starvation nor need there be, except for war. A great deal of the ample supply of food comes from better crop yields from better management, better varieties, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, and artificial fertilizers from the Haber-Bosch process which makes nitrogen available to the farmer to apply to his crops.
Strangely, the followers of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rail against the very actions that greatly reduce poverty and hunger, the two primary goals of UN’s Sustainable Development. The UN IPCC ignores what is occurring in the atmosphere and because of its ignorance, it is promoting ignorance. In turn, this ignorance results in government policies that punish the poor, particularly in developing countries in Africa.
Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physicists William van Wijngaarden and William Happer use the finest, most detailed database available to calculate how greenhouse gases block (slow) the loss of heat from Earth to space, allowing complex life to exist on Earth. Both the primary greenhouse gas, water vapor, and the secondary greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, are highly saturated meaning their influence on Earth’s temperatures is heavily into the concept of diminishing returns. Graphically, they have nearly flatlined. Further, in the atmosphere water vapor virtually eliminates the warming influence of nitrous oxide, from artificial fertilizers, and methane, from livestock.
The ignorance of the IPCC has widely spread among western politicians who are claiming sustainable development while invoking policies that contradict the primary goals of the UN for sustainable development: 1) Elimination of extreme poverty; and 2) Elimination of hunger. If the collective actions of the politicians were described for an individual, that individual may fit Mayo Clinic’s definition of schizophrenia.
See links under Science, Policy, and Evidence. Seeking a Common Ground, Challenging the Orthodoxy, and https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/schizophrenia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354443
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False Hopes? Since 2015, the head of the IPCC had been Korean economist Hoesung Lee. He has been quite quiet in announcements and held few press releases. His behavior is different than the bombastic UN Secretary-General António Guterres who took office on January 1, 2017. The former prime minister of Portugal, Guterres (1995-2002) is the one who claims a climate crisis, boiling oceans, and that “humanity has opened the gates of hell.”
On July 26, 2023, Hoesung Lee was replaced by Jim Skea of the UK. According to the IPCC press release:
“With nearly forty years of climate science experience and expertise, Jim Skea will lead the IPCC through its seventh assessment cycle. Skea was elected by 90 votes to 69 in a run-off with Thelma Krug.
‘Climate change is an existential threat to our planet. My ambition is to lead an IPCC that is truly representative and inclusive, an IPCC looking to the future while exploiting the opportunities that we have in the present. An IPCC where everyone feels valued and heard,’ said Skea in his address to the delegates attending the IPCC elections.
‘In this, I will pursue three priorities – improving inclusiveness and diversity, shielding scientific integrity and policy relevance of IPCC assessment reports, and making the effective use of the best available science on climate change. My actions as the Chair of the IPCC will ensure that these ambitions are realized.’”
According to the CV, Skea was:
“Co-Chair Working Group III (Sixth Assessment Cycle); Vice-Chair Working Group III (Fifth Assessment Cycle.”
According to Richard Lindzen and Steven Koonin, the work of Working Group III, Mitigation of Climate Change gets about as far away from physical evidence as the IPCC gets. According to the IPCC press release:
“WG III focuses on climate change mitigation, assessing methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.”
Despite the hopes of some commentators that Skea will bring scientific integrity to the IPCC, TWTW considers these to be false hopes. The IPCC will continue to pursue the false belief that with increasing temperatures, whatever the cause, water vapor will increase significantly in the atmosphere, causing notable additional warming. Further, the IPCC will continue to use misleading surface-air temperatures rather than the superior atmospheric temperatures in making announcements of climate change and global warming.
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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A Publishing Breakthrough? Roy Spencer announced that the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology, published a paper by John Christy and him on “Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021.” The abstract states:
“Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.”
The press release states:”
“A new research study from The University of Alabama in Huntsville, a part of the University of Alabama System, addresses a central question of climate change research: how much warming can be expected from adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through fossil fuel burning and other activities as standards of living increase around the world?
UAH Earth System Science Center Research Scientist Dr. Roy Spencer and UAH Earth System Science Center Director and Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John R. Christy have spent 10 years developing a one-dimensional climate model to answer this elusive question.
Their latest research study was published in the September 2023 issue of Theoretical and Applied Climatology journal titled ‘Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021.’
Spencer and Christy’s climate model, based upon objective measured data, found carbon dioxide does not have as big of an effect of warming of the atmosphere when compared with other climate models.
‘For over 30 years, dozens of highly sophisticated computerized climate models based upon theory have been unable to agree on an answer. That’s why we developed our own one-dimensional climate model to provide an answer,’ says. Dr. Spencer.
Current climate models range over a factor of three, from 1.8 to 5.6° Celsius, in the amount of warming produced in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This warming response to double carbon dioxide is called ‘effective climate sensitivity.’ Determining its magnitude has remained elusive for decades.
When compared to other current climate models, the research results from Spencer and Christy’s one-dimensional climate model approached the bottom end of the range, 1.9° Celsius. The lower UAH value indicates that the climate impact of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations is much less than that based on other climate models.
‘An important assumption of our model, as well as the more complex models used by others, is that all climate change is human caused,’ Spencer states. ‘If recent warming is partly natural, it would further reduce climate sensitivity.’
What distinguishes this model developed at UAH from others is that it is driven by actual observations of warming, rather than theoretical assumptions about how the climate system responds to increasing greenhouse gases.
The one-dimensional climate model uses a variety of observational datasets of warming between 1970 and 2021 of the deep ocean and land, along with associated uncertainty ranges. These datasets produced a range of estimates of climate sensitivity based upon basic concepts of energy conservation.
‘The 52-year period since 1970 is key. It represents the period of most rapid warming, with the highest confidence in the observational data of deep-ocean warming,’ Spencer states.
The results of Spencer and Christy’s research also showed a period of the most rapid growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This is due to their climate model accounting for heat storage in deeper layers of land, which other climate models ignore.
A critical advantage of their simple model is that it conserves energy.
‘It should be a requirement that any physics-based model of global warming should meet,’ Spencer says. ‘Current computerized climate models continue to have difficulty achieving this aspect.’” [Boldface added]
By demanding that energy be conserved, the Spencer-Christy model is prevented from passing into a totally unrealistic range of calculations. The publication of it is a rarity, because since the 1990s in general western journals have not dared to publish anything that even partially contradicted the work of the IPCC. The journal, Science, published the extensive 67-million-year database of deep-sea sediments in the belief that it supported the claim that surface temperatures respond to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Tom Gallagher and his colleagues showed that the temperature data did not correspond with carbon dioxide concentrations but did correspond with ocean currents changed by continental drift.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Urban Heat Island Effect: In a post, Roy Spencer reports that the urban heat island effect was first reported in 1833. Spencer writes:
“In fact, the heat caused by urban environments was discussed way back in 1833 (190 years ago!) by Luke Howard (The Climate of London) who was the first to document the urban heat island (UHI) effect.”
“The bottom line is that there are unsupportable conclusions being drawn about the supposed role of climate change in record high temperatures being reported at some cities. Cities are hotter than their rural surroundings, and increasingly so, with or without climate change.”
Both Spencer and Paul Homewood show that even though part of the US reported above normal temperatures this summer, they were largely at night, not daytime highs. So, the claims of extreme highs are largely nonsense.
Much heat cooling of the surface occurs through evaporation. In city centers, most rainfall is diverted to sewers rather than into soil, thereby decreasing cooling by evaporation. This effect is part of the Heat Island Effect.
See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
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Measuring the Greenhouse Effect: Willis Eschenbach began unraveling the deep-sea sediment data used by Tom Gallagher and others to explain previous steps or stages of Earth’s temperatures from earlier Hothouse to current Icehouse. In WUWT, Eschenbach writes:
“To my knowledge, this method of measuring the greenhouse effect was first proposed by Raval and Ramanathan in a 1989 paper yclept ‘Observational determination of the greenhouse effect.’
Their method, followed up to the present by most everyone including me, is to subtract the upwelling (space-bound) longwave (LW) radiation measured by satellites at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), from the upwelling surface longwave radiation. Or as they describe it in the paper, which was only about the ocean:”
The abstract of the Raman & Ramanathan paper states:
“The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the green-house effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models.”
The method used involves the subtraction of two huge numbers. Thus, small uncertainties in the huge numbers may result in huge uncertainties in the difference. The method used by van Wijngaarden and Happer depends on the HITRAN atmospheric database which is from laboratory experiments and over 50 years of observations by instruments on weather balloons and over 40 years of observations from satellites. As shown by Howard Hayden, the results are consistent with calculations of planetary heat balance and with the Stefan-Boltzmann law. Among issues with the cited paper is that we are not observing a significant increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing sea surface temperatures. It is assumed that surface warming increases the amount of water vapor, and that causes strong positive feedback; however, that is not observed.. Thus, from the paper, the models are wrong. And they still retain the error.
See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy, Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022 for Basic Climate Physics by Hayden.
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Failure of Wind and Solar: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the UK announced a slowdown in the path of economic destruction from the lack of reliable power, with the quest for mythical “net zero.” Further he has opened the extensive, submerged oil and gas fields known as Rosebank north of Scotland for development after decades of delay. This has produced howls of outrage from both conservatives and liberals who have embraced net zero without understanding what it entails and who cling to myths surrounding the ability of wind and solar to provide affordable, reliable electricity. UK analyst Andrew Montford writes that finger pointing has begun among the promoters of net zero:
“A prominent former member of the Climate Change Committee blames MPs for the failure of Net Zero plans.
“Back in 2020, the economist Paul Johnson, a member of the Climate Change Committee (CCC), said that the overall cost of getting to Net Zero should be ‘more than manageable’, and indeed, with a fair technological wind, might be ‘remarkably low’. Tens of billions of pounds a year would be all that was required, he claimed, in line with the CCC’s 2019 Net Zero report, which suggested a figure of £50 billion per year, and thus perhaps £1.5 trillion in total.”
But the bill is staggering, and no one knows how much it will be. After presenting various efforts that do not work as claimed, Monford discusses six ways renewables will increase electricity bills in the UK:
- “Inefficiency
- Capacity market
- Levies
- Constraints
- Artificial inertia and other balancing
- Transmission
Caveat
When I began, I observed that my examples described grids that were simpler than the real one. In particular, I looked at grids with centralized dispatch based on the different bids from generators. The reality of the UK market is rather different, with only a fraction of total electricity traded on the open market; most is delivered under the terms of private ‘power purchase agreements’, and generators tend to ‘self-dispatch’. However, this may make little difference to my conclusions. Most of the effects outlined above are a function of physical and engineering constraints rather than of market structures. Differences are therefore likely to be of degree.”
Paul Homewood brings out Euan Mears, who has written extensively on energy and his late colleague, Roger Andrews who explored in detail the problems of storage, including pumped storage. Mears writes:
“I urge politicians in Holyrood [Scottish Parliament Building in Edinburgh] and Westminster to suspend all new large-scale wind and solar developments and grid expansions until a comprehensive analysis and report on the real environmental and economic costs of current net-zero energy policy is presented to the public for scrutiny. This report must be based on sound thermodynamic and economic principles and not upon wishful thinking and net zero dogma that appears to underpin much of current energy policy.”
Complicating matters, The Royal Society produced a poor report on energy storage full of green dreams such as extensive hydrogen storage. Francis Menton discusses it well.
“The whole thing just cries out for a demonstration project to prove feasibility and cost. I’m betting that that will never occur before the whole ‘net zero’ thing falls apart from the disaster of skyrocketing electricity prices. Time will tell.”
See links under Lowering Standards, Questioning European Green, Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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Tightening Screws: Meanwhile, Washington continues to clamp down on domestic oil and gas production and hydroelectric power under Executive Order 13990, issued January 20, 2021, using the fake claim of a climate crisis. Apparently, the Saudis understood what the administration was about to do when it ignored Biden’s pleas and refused to increase production and, with Russia, decreased oil production.
Previously, when the oil prices exploded, US hydraulic fracturing companies expanded production and deep-water Gulf of Mexico oil companies did as well. Thanks to Washington’s regulations they no longer can. Harold Hamm was the first to apply George Mitchell’s technique for keeping hydraulic fractures open and Devon Energy’s directional drilling to extracting oil in the Bakken fields of the Dakotas. On September 25, his company made a disturbing statement:
“Doug Lawler — the CEO of Continental Resources, a shale driller controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm — warned that crude output in Texas’ Permian Basin oil field could soon peak, as it already has in rival shale fields like North Dakota’s Bakken Formation and Texas’ Eagle Ford.
Without new exploration, ‘you’re going to see $120 to $150’ oil, Lawler told Bloomberg TV on Monday.”
See links under Energy Issues – US, and Washington’s Control of Energy
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Number of the Week: 64 percent of the world’s caloric intake: In a report retracted for politically sensitive reasons, the authors, Gianluca Alimonti, et al., wrote:
“The authors acknowledge that rising CO2 and the general greening effect is a complex issue, and without adaptation it is not always beneficial. For example, they cite a study that showed that more rapid plant growth in the early spring can lead to drier soils in the summer. So, farmers need to adapt practices accordingly. But we know they are good at adapting and increasing productivity for the simple reason that agricultural productivity has been rising for decades. And millennia, we might add. But especially recently. The authors present the output per hectare record for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat since 1961, which taken together provide 64 percent of the world’s caloric intake.” [Boldface added]
See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Professor William Happer IPA lecture – The Crusade Against Carbon Dioxide – September 2023
From Institute of Public Affairs, Australia, Posted by Charles Rotter, WUWT, Sep 29, 2023
Video, Brisbane presentation to IPA members on the vital role in ensuring there is integrity in climate science.
Elimination of CO2 is a suicide pact – Professor William Happer on climate change misconceptions and hysteria
By Editor, BizNews, Nov 4, 2022 [H/t Ron Clutz]
“Earth has an unstable climate which isn’t very well understood to this day, and it would be wonderful if we understood it better. But I think our ability to understand it has been set back very badly by the climate hysteria. So, what could’ve been 20, 30 years of good, basic research and real understanding of the climate has been wasted with hysteria about this false climate emergency, which does not exist. In the meantime, the real parts of the climate – which would be good to understand – have been ignored.”
Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer
W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Our new climate sensitivity paper has been published
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 29, 2023
Press Release: Climate model provides data-driven answer to major goal of climate research
By Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Phys.org, Sep 29, 2023
Link to paper: Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021
By Roy W. Spencer & John R. Christy, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Sep 16, 2023
Book Review: Green Breakdown
Review by Michael Kelly, Net Zero Watch, Sep 25, 2023
“This is simply the best book I have read on the specific current set of global issues around climate change mitigation and energy policy. It is simply a must for everyone to read, and especially for those who advocate the green agenda.”
[SEPP Comment: Review of Green Breakdown: The Coming Renewable Energy Failure by Steve Goreham]
Soon/Connollys: Challenges of the detection and attribution of global warming | Tom Nelson Pod #153
Video, Via WUWT, Sep 28, 2023
Comment and Reply to GRL on evaluation of CMIP6 simulations.
By Nicola Scafetta, Climate Etc. Sep 24, 2023
A Look at the Fundamental Hypothesis of Global Warming
By Guy K. Mitchell, Jr., American Thinker, Sep 26, 2023
What Our Oceans Say about Global Warming
By Guy K. Mitchell, Jr., American Thinker, Sep 29, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC elects Jim Skea as the new Chair
Press Release, IPCC, July 26, 2023
CV: Professor Jim Skea
Elected New Head of the IPCC, July 26, 2023, Accessed Sep 27, 2023
Closing the mouth of hell
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
Climate Change: The Case for Carbon Offsets
By Mahesh Ramanujam, Real Clear Energy, Sep 26, 2023
“Mahesh Ramanujam is the President and CEO of the Global Network for Zero. Mahesh most recently led the U.S. Green Building Council and was primarily responsible for implementing LEED certification.”
Reducing US oil demand, not production, is the way forward for the climate.
By Samantha Gross, Brookings, September 2023
“Oil supply can be easily replaced; reducing demand reduces emissions”
[SEPP Comment: Oil supply replaced with what? And how does Ms. Gross intend to reduce demand?]
An Unsettling Insight
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Sep 28, 2023
Link to paper: Observational determination of the greenhouse effect
By A. Raval & V. Ramanathan, Nature, December 14, 1989
New Study: ‘Atmospheric CO2 Is Not The Cause Of Climate Change’ … The Next Glaciation Has Begun
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 28, 2023
Link to paper: Comparison of Recently Proposed Causes of Climate Change
By Stuart A. Harris, Atmosphere, Aug 3, 2023
From abstract: The 23 ka Milankovitch cycle has begun to reduce the winter insolation received at the surface of the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere starting in 2020. This results in extreme weather as the winter insolation reaching the surface of the atmosphere in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere decreases while the summer air temperatures increase. It heralds the start of the next glaciation.”
[SEPP Comment: Doubt anyone knows enough to predict with good certainty the start of a new glaciation.]
“A Cleverly Staged Hoax.” …Former German TV Meteorologist Slams “Climate Hysteria”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 23, 2023
Why Do The Poor Countries Always Stay So Poor?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 22, 2023
“I would not expect the ‘tortuous cycle’ of debt and poverty for Ghana, or for other poor countries, to change any time soon. Too many well-paid people at international bureaucracies have a vested interest in keeping the game going just as it is.”
Forecasting Climate Change
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 26, 2023
“The data does not show what the data shows.”
Energy and Environmental Review: September 25, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Sep 25, 2023
After Paris!
The North & South Divide: Why Boycotting COP28 Harms Developing Communities
By James Rockall, Real Clear Energy, Sep 26, 2023
“For many communities, liquid gases – like propane and butane – act as a lifeline for off-grid communities around the world and provide a lower carbon alternative to other fuels.
Today, 2.3 billion people rely on charcoal, firewood, coal, agricultural waste and animal dung as fuel to prepare meals, causing them to breathe in harmful smoke in the process. Air pollution from these cooking methods causes 3.7 million premature deaths per year, ranking it the third largest cause of premature death globally.”
The fire and brimstone snoozefest
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: More climate summits!]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Stuff you’re not allowed to know #6: global greening
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
Link to: RETRACTED ARTICLE: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming
By Gianluca Alimonti, et al., The European Physical Journal Plus, Aug 23, 2023
Problems in the Orthodoxy
1,039 New Coal Fired Power Plants
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 28, 2023
“There are 1,039 new coal fired power plants in the works, with the majority in China and almost all in the developing world. Yet for some reason the ‘climate protests’ aren’t being held in those countries.”
[SEPP Comment: Wonder why?]
Seeking a Common Ground
Causality and climate
Guest post by Antonis Christofides, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Christian Onof and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Climate Etc., Sep 26, 2023
Extreme poverty: How far have we come, and how far do we still have to go?
The world has made immense progress against extreme poverty, but it is still the reality for almost one in ten people worldwide.
By Max Roser, Our World in Data, 2021, Updated August 2023
World Food Situation
FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
By Staff, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), August 9, 2023
Notes for Sunak: Energy Transition Risk Vs. Climate Change Risk
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 23, 2023
Lomborg on the 21st century part 5: cost-benefit analysis of climate policy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
Link to: Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies
By Bjorn Lomborg, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, July 2020
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Sustainability: The Business of U.S. Congress
By Michael Curley, Real Clear Energy, Sept 27, 2023
Link to: Sustainable Development
By Staff, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Measurement Issues — Surface
Record US Heat? More Guardian Lies!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Homewood presents NOAA data from 1895 to 2023 showing the June to August the Contiguous U.S. Average Temperatures and the Contiguous U.S. Maximum Temperatures. The difference is remarkable. In maximum temperatures, 2023 (21.4% above normal) did not come close to 1936 (47% above normal) or even 2012 (46.2% above normal). Further, unlike 1936, no new state records were set, even in Phoenix Airport.]
Summer in the City, 2023: Record Phoenix Warmth Not Reflected in Surrounding Weather Station Data
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 29, 2023
Link to: Luke Howard and The Climate of London
By Gerald Mills, Weather, Royal Meteorological Society, May 27, 2008
Changing Weather
Trends in U.S. Tornado Damage and Incidence
A new paper shows that U.S. tornado damage and strong tornado incidence are both sharply down, but you’ll only read about that here
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Sep 25, 2023
Link to paper: Time trends in losses from major tornadoes in the United States
By Jinhui Zhang, Weather and Climate Extremes, September 2023
From abstract: “We also find spatial variations in time trends for the damage from tornadoes: while for most U.S. states the declining trend in severity is confirmed, an increasing trend of total annual losses from tornadoes is observed for Alabama.”
The original strike for climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
“National Geographic recently said that shortly before being whacked by the Inca, the Chimú of northern Peru sacrificed hundreds of children to stop flooding events tied to El Niño rains. Which forced NG to blurt out the inconvenient truth that ‘While many scientists believe the impact of El Niño cycles are increasingly exacerbated by climate change, archaeological evidence shows the climate phenomenon has been severely affecting life in the region for more than a thousand years’.”
The Implications of El Nino for Northwest Autumn and Winter
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Sep 29, 2023
“The Northwest tends to get less snow by as much as 10 inches over the mountains. Considering that much of our high terrain gets hundreds of inches a year, the El Nino impact is modest.
So the bottom line is that the El Nino influence should be modest, with most of the impacts after January. And keep in mind that not all El Nino years follow the above patterns. El Nino is only one factor influencing atmospheric evolution over the planet.”
Superstorm and Superwaves Offshore
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Sep 25, 2023
A Very Scary Cloud over Puget Sound
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 27, 2023
Changing Climate
Fifteen millennia of climate change in the middle reaches of China’s Yangtze River
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
Link to paper: Phytolith records of the climate change since the past 15000 years in the middle reach of the Yangtze River in China.
By Gu, Y., et al. Frontiers of Earth Science, 2012
“In no uncertain terms, Gu et al. state, in the concluding sentence of their paper, that the good correlation that exists between their climate history of the middle reaches of China’s Yangtze River and the Bond events of the North Atlantic Ocean ‘reveals that solar activity controls the Earth surface climate system at the centennial and millennial scales.’”
From CO2 Science
Changing Seas
New Research: Relative Sea Level Along The Coasts Of Japan Has Fallen Nearly A Meter Since The 1800s
By Kenneth Richard, NO Tricks Zone, Sep 25, 2023
Link to first paper: Late Holocene tectonics inferred from emerged shoreline features in Higashi-Izu monogenetic volcano field, Central Japan
By Masanobu Shishikura, et al. Tectonophysics, Oct 5, 2023
Link to third paper: Holocene relative sea-level changes on the southern east coast of the Yellow Sea
By Dong-Yoon Yang, et al. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, Nov 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: These sea level changes appear to be regional or local changes rather than global sea level change.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
17 years of near-zero trend in September sea ice demolishes claim that more CO2 means less sea ice.
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 22, 2023
Arctic Ice Refuses To Melt Away
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2023
Arctic 2023 Refuses To Melt…German Scientists Blame “Unusual Weather Phenomenon”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Melting is climate change, not melting is weather?]
It used to be warmer: 4,000 new bits of evidence melt out of Norwegian glaciers
By Jo Nova, He Blog, Sep 30, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Ice Magic making arrows?]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
The Global War on Farming: ‘Net Zero and the American beef industry cannot coexist’
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Sep 22, 2023
Video by Eva Vlaardingerbroek, Douch Farmers Advocate
Right, EpochTV, Global Climate Policies Are Targeting Food Production
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Sep 27. 2023
New Zealand Farmers Fed Up with Extreme Climate Policies
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 27, 2023
Lowering Standards
A Semi-Competent Report On Energy Storage From Britain’s Royal Society
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 28, 2023
Link to: Large-scale electricity storage
By Staff, The Royal Society, September 2023
Global use of oil could peak this decade: IEA
By Nick Robertson, The Hill, Sep 26, 2023
Link to analysis: Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach
By Staff, IEA, 2023
“As electricity becomes the ‘new oil’ of the global energy system in the NZE Scenario.”
“The fierce urgency of now”
[SEPP Comment: Another plan from the International Energy Agency ignoring the existence of China and other BRICS nations.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Climate Alarmism Demoted in One Chart
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 28, 2023
“’Fact Check: Drop in climate-related disaster deaths not evidence against climate ‘emergency’’, reads the Reuters Fact Check headline of September 19, 2023.”
Ben Marlow In Cloud Cuckoo Land Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 28, 2023
Ben Marlow’s Readers Know More Than Him
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 28, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Storm Agnes
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 28, 2023
“As usual, the Met Office found its 80 mph gust, this time at Capel Curig, half way up a mountain in Snowdonia:”
“Once again, the Met Office prefers spin to responsible weather forecasting.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
NOAA and the Media Continue to Misinform About Climate Change and Extreme Weather
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 25, 2023
Alarmists Turn Up Heat with Climate, Weather ‘Records’
By Larry Bell, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 19, 2023
Not A Billion Dollar Disaster
By Tony Heller, Hix Blog, Sep 28, 2023
“NOAA uses ‘billion-dollar disasters’ as a climate metric, because population growth and inflation give them one more way to create completely fake climate statistics.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Most motorists back postponement of 2030 ban
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 26, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Evolution Earth documentary comments on polar bear survival & adaptation: let’s see how they do
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 25, 2023
“Just a heads-up that this week, PBS in North America will broadcast the ‘polar’ episode of a new documentary called ‘Evolution Earth.’”
“About the Show: ‘Evolution Earth embarks on a global expedition to reveal the animals keeping pace with a planet changing at superspeed. Heading out across the globe to distant wilds and modern urban environments, five episodes track how animals are moving, using ingenuity to adapt their behavior, and even evolving in unexpected ways….’” [Boldface added]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Our moral guardians: Climate activists teach children to send cookie malware to skeptical grandparents
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 23, 2023
“Our vision is for a fair and just world, with a stable climate and healthy environment for our communities and future generations.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
High school students launch ‘Green New Deal for Schools Campaign’
By Lexi Lonas, The Hill, Sep 25, 2023
“The Sunrise Movement says they had a multi-week summer training camp to teach hundreds of high schoolers how to organize, run campaigns in schools and protest.”
[SEPP Comment: Promoting a total ignorance of climate history and the greenhouse effect.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Climate Wars Heating Up in Rural Australia
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 29, 2023
UK Climate Alarmists Debate Violence (hitting bottom?)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 27, 2023
The European rebellion against the Sacred Quest for NetZero spreads — Green investors “shocked”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 27, 2023
Questioning European Green
How a growing ‘Energy Gap’ threatens Britain’s future
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2023
From the article in the Telegraph” “’No one has the courage to look people in the eye and explain what that involves,’ said Rishi Sunak in his speech last week. I fear that as a storyteller, he has barely begun on such a journey.”
“But he should take heart that both Germany and Sweden have embarked on emergency expansions of hydrocarbons and nuclear – while still swearing loyalty to net zero targets. Those pledges, like those sacred targets, don’t mean anything anymore.”
From Homewood: “It is worth pointing out that Andrew Orlowski is a technology journalist. So, he knows what is talking about, unlike the Emma Gattens of the world who environmental reporters and who usually get to report on energy matters.”
Public need to be able to scrutinize the true costs on net-zero energy policy–Euan Mearns
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 28, 2023
Fingers pointed over failure of Net Zero
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 26, 2023
The Six Ways Renewables Increase Electricity Bills
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 28, 2023
Link to paper: The Six Ways Renewables Increase Electricity Bills
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, September 2023
To go green, Lufthansa says it needs half of Germany’s electricity
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 28, 2023
Funding Issues
James Cleverly Needs $4 Trillion a Year For His Sustainable Development Goals!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2023
“’ British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly announced this week that the UK will push to unlock global finance and help developing countries invest to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).’”
“’The extra finance needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is estimated to be around US$ 4 trillion annually. We urgently need bold global action to build a bigger, better, and fairer international financial system that helps close this gap,’ Cleverly said.”
Giant Australian retirement funds are being corporate Climate Bullies with your money.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 25, 2023
The Political Games Continue
Sustainability: The Business of U.S. Congress
By Michael Curley, Real Clear Energy, Sept 27, 2023
Link to: Sustainable Development
By Staff, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Litigation Issues
Climate Litigation Would Close Pennsylvania for Business
By David N. Taylor, Real Clear Energy, Sep 25, 2023
“Recent opinion content making its rounds in state papers reveals that the national campaign to sue U.S. energy companies for the effects of global climate change has chosen Pennsylvania as its next target. These climate lawsuits have failed in other states because they are without merit.
The Clean Air Council and other proponents of climate litigation argue that the Commonwealth and our local governments should sue energy producers for costs associated with the global and local effects of climate change.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
EV Energy Rationing Lite – “Monetary incentives could guide charging behaviors”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 28, 2023
Ford Admits Their Risky EV Gamble Hinges on Government Coercion
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 24, 2023
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Illegal Power Play
By Mario Loyola, Real Clear Wire, Sep 24, 2023
The Agency’s Ambitious Gambit to Reorganize America’s Electricity Will Almost Certainly Be Struck Down
[SEPP Comment: Does the EPA care about legality?]
DOJ accuses eBay of violating Clean Air Act by allowing sales of harmful products
By Tara Suter, The Hill, Sep 27, 2023
Federal Energy Commissioners Resisting Records Requests Cannot Locate Documents Naming Who Is in Charge
By Kevin Mooney, Real Clear Energy, Sep 27, 2023
“A press release from the commission claims President Joe Biden announced his naming of Willie Phillips as ‘acting chair’ on January 3, 2023. But as part of its litigation against the commission, the Institute for Energy Research, a Washington-based nonprofit, has been unable to obtain any documentation verifying the appointment, and no such announcement posted anywhere even if its existence was widely parroted in the press.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
When Gummer Attacks You, You Must Be Doing Something Right!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Former long-time head of the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
Energy Issues — US
Shale CEO warns oil could hit $150 per barrel
By Shannon Thaler, New York Post, Sep 26, 2023
GOREHAM: The AI Revolution Is Bad News For Net Zero
By Steve Goreham, Daily Caller, Sep 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: During hearings before the Virginia State Corporation Commission, representatives for Dominion Electric said there are suggestions that Artificial Intelligence may increase the power requirements of data centers by five times or more.]
Climate Change Weekly #484: Climate Change and Texas’ Electric Power Problems
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Daily News, Sep 29, 2023
“As I write at 3:45 p.m. on Wednesday, September 27, with the temperature at 95℉, wind, the second-largest source of electric power in the state (accounting for more than 25 percent of the state’s electric power capacity), is producing only approximately one-quarter of its rated capacity. Overall, it is currently satisfying just 3.4 percent of the state’s power demand.
“It turns out the wind doesn’t blow very well in the summer in West Texas where most of the turbines take up space.
“Solar power, the third-largest generating source in Texas by stated capacity, is operating at just 57 percent of capacity on a clear, sunny day, meeting just 14.7 percent of the state’s demand. That is 2 percent less than coal, even though coal has only 65 percent of solar’s generating capacity.”
[SEPP Comment: Is the grand power plan to abandon Texas in the summer?]
Biden administration updates furnace efficiency standards for first time in 16 years
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 29, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Energy Department Policy: If you spend more you’ll save more. Forget upfront or interest costs.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Alaska Energy vs. Woke Government
By Kassie Andrews, Master Resource, Sep 26, 2023
Link to: Executive Order 13990 of January 20, 2021
Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis
By Staff, Federal Register, Presidential Documents, Jan 25, 2021
“The largest oil development project in Alaska in decades was met with fierce opposition from outside environmental groups. The project was pulled back for insertion of language from President Biden’s Executive Order 13990, establishing the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (SC-GHG).”
Biden administration proposes to offer fewest-ever offshore drilling rights sales
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 29, 2023
Biden directs agencies to take steps to restore Pacific Northwest salmon
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 27, 2023
“The White House action received GOP pushback. Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) also said he expected the administration to move toward dam removal, which he opposes.”
[SEPP Comment: The Bonneville Power Authority in the Pacific Northwest has the largest hydroelectric capacity in the country. It has long been a target for greens.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Net Zero Watch welcomes green light for Rosebank
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 27, 2023
Link to: European Fossil Fuels: Resources and Proven Reserves
By John Constable, Net Zero Watch, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Offshore wind is systematically violating the Marine Mammal Protection Act
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 28, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Backtracking and backlashing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
Values Of Used EVs Plummet, As Dealers Stuck With Unsold Cars
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2023
“They [“experts”] have obviously been believing their own propaganda about EVs for too long.
They still do not seem to have worked out that EVs are utterly useless for most private drivers, who will refuse to make the switch until forced to.”
EV Battery Factory Will Require So Much Energy It Needs A Coal Plant To Power It
A new electric vehicle battery factory in Kansas is demanding so much energy that the state is delaying the retirement of a coal plant to make sure the facility has enough power.
By Kevin Killough, Cowboy State Daily, Sep 22, 2023
“Panasonic broke ground on the facility last year. The Japanese company was slated to receive $6.8 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act, which has been pouring billions into electric vehicles and battery factories as part of its effort to transition America away from fossil fuels.” [Boldface added]
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
“’A real estate company with multiple properties in Toronto’s Parkdale neighborhood has banned the use of electric vehicles, ranging from e-bikes to scooters.’ It won’t be the last.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Collect all nine and win a prize
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 27, 2023
Link to paper: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
By Katherine Richardson, AAAS Science Advances, Sep 13, 2023
“Forgive us our transgressions … if you can figure out what any of it actually means. Right down to ‘control variable for functional biosphere integrity’. Where was that when the end-of-Cretaceous asteroid hit, or the Younger Dryas, or indeed the Pleistocene started and the ice came? Where would it be if atmospheric CO2 fell to 150 ppm, for natural reasons or due to some hideously ill-advised geoengineering scheme to save us from phantom ‘climate breakdown’, and all C3 photosynthesis plants died? And what’s a ‘systemic context’ and what other contexts might ‘Earth system modeling’ have considered?”
Scientific American Wants To “jeopardize rain and crops”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 29, 2023
Link to article: It’s Time to Engineer the Sky
Global warming is so rampant that some scientists say we should begin altering the stratosphere to block incoming sunlight, even if it jeopardizes rain and crops
By Douglas Fox, Scientific American, Oct 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The Fox article is more reasonable than the concept to engineer the sky.]
Stripes Across My T-Shirt
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 15, 2023
Video Cherry-picking is to be avoided.
Climate Bombshell: No Ice-Cold Beer to Cool Us Down as Planet Earth Boils Over
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Sep 26, 2023
Please Enter The Boxcar Peacefully
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 27, 2023
From head of Club of Rome: “The planet can support 1 to 2 billion. Need a dictatorship that is smart.”
ARTICLES
1. The Band of Debunkers Busting Bad Scientists
Stanford’s president and a high-profile physicist are among those taken down by a growing wave of volunteers who expose faulty or fraudulent research papers
By Nidhi Subbaraman, WSJ, Sep 24, 2023
TWTW Summary: The article begins with:
“An award-winning Harvard Business School professor and researcher spent years exploring the reasons people lie and cheat. A trio of behavioral scientists examining a handful of her academic papers concluded her own findings were drawn from falsified data.
It was a routine takedown for the three scientists—Joe Simmons, Leif Nelson and Uri Simonsohn—who have gained academic renown for debunking published studies built on faulty or fraudulent data. They use tips, number crunching and gut instincts to uncover deception. Over the past decade, they have come to their own finding: Numbers don’t lie but people do.
‘Once you see the pattern across many different papers, it becomes like a one in quadrillion chance that there’s some benign explanation,’ said Simmons, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the trio who report their work on a blog called Data Colada.
Simmons and his two colleagues are among a growing number of scientists in various fields around the world who moonlight as data detectives, sifting through studies published in scholarly journals for evidence of fraud.
At least 5,500 faulty papers were retracted in 2022, compared with 119 in 2002, according to Retraction Watch, a website that keeps a tally. The jump largely reflects the investigative work of the Data Colada scientists and many other academic volunteers, said Dr. Ivan Oransky, the site’s co-founder. Their discoveries have led to embarrassing retractions, upended careers and retaliatory lawsuits.”
The article goes through examples that are not of particular interest to TWTW.
****************
Lowering standards of the Wall Street Journal:
Giant Batteries Helped the U.S. Power Grid Eke Through Summer
States rely more on batteries to avoid blackouts, with additional projects coming online soon
By Jennifer Hiller, WSJ, Sep 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: No discussion of costs or who pays them.]
Another Worrisome Inflation Indicator: Surging Mining Costs
Higher expenses threaten to increase prices for consumers and complicate central banks’ inflation fight.
By Rhiannon Hoyle, WSJ, Sept. 28, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Didn’t the Inflation Reduction Act reduce them?]
Libya Storm’s Severity Caused in Part by Climate Change, Scientists Say
New report suggests underdeveloped countries are at greater risk of harmful impacts due to climate change
By Chao Deng and Eric Niiler, WSJ, Sep 19, 2023
“The scientists from the World Weather Attribution group said greenhouse-gas emissions made heavy rainfall 50 times more likely in Libya when Storm Daniel hit the Mediterranean early this month.”
“The report wasn’t peer reviewed in a journal but used peer-reviewed methods. The WWA researchers, who were from universities and research institutes in Europe and the U.S., warned that their study carried large mathematical uncertainty but that increased atmospheric temperatures generally lead to heavier rainfall.”
[SEPP Comment: No rigorous science, just rumor from WMO and WWA (World Weather Attribution).]
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False Hopes
Well spotted. Yes, it’s [UK] party conference season. And the Conservative one has just begun.
Many seem optimistic that an announced slight delay in net zero measures means it isn’t any longer a serious goal. Wrong.
Sunday 1 Oct
12:00 – 13:00
To reach our environmental and energy security objectives, we will need to build lots more zero-carbon energy. Ramping up cheap solar and wind across the country will cut bills and power economic growth”
https://www.cen.uk.com/conference
As the elections next year come into view we have a straightforward choice.
Conservative – Net Zero – slightly slower
Labour – Net Zero – never sure but follow the Conservative lead
Liberal Democrat – Net Zero – Gung Ho.
It’s a toughie, right?
But the media and big tech – excluding Musk – are all on board and ready to increase the fear factor accordingly. It’s Ok, we can always put the children in therapy, which is pretty much what we do now, anyway.
What is going on in astronomy these days?
“The cluelessness of Neil deGrasse Tyson”
…Tyson had previously suggested that gender is largely a matter of how you feel when you wake up in the morning. Tomorrow, he suggested, he might feel ‘80 per cent male’. It’s also about how you choose to express that feeling to the world, such as through long hair and make-up, or by wearing a ‘muscle shirt’. I certainly know how confusing I find it when my wife wears one of those.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/09/26/the-cluelessness-of-neil-degrasse-tyson/
Vote Reform UK – the difference we need must start at the ballot box – if millions do the same, LibLabCon are in trouble
—story tip—
Charge Rage —
Now marshals are being brought in, to police ‘charge rage’ rows between electric vehicle drivers: Boss of Britain’s biggest motorway services reveals long waits for plug-in points are making motorists ‘angry and stressed’
And the moral of the story?
The wealthier who can afford EVs – and the insurance – have no time for other people….. even of the same social rank
You only have to watch the self obsessed, virtue signalling, greedy, self serving elites to understand their disdain for everyone below them socially – they are the worst of humanity
I can hear all the green professor luvvies now. Oooh, we didn’t put that assumption in the renewable models — “charge rage management costs” – Quick better add a bit more $$ for the “transition”…lol!!
story tipAI-Tech Leads To NASA Energy Breakthrough
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/AI-Tech-Leads-To-NASA-Energy-Breakthrough.html
NASA and energy startup ADC Energy USA, Inc. have jointly published a breakthrough validation of a “new form of energy” that does away with conventional AC/DC power conversion. The two parties have been researching “alternating direct current” (ADC) for 5 years, an AI-enabled, energy technology that makes lossless power transmission possible. “
Marketing people can’t help but lie.
“New form of energy” I would say is the giveaway phrase. This is current pushed by electrical “pressure”; the same electrical power that has existed in all previous forms and over some length of time the power accomplishes work in some way.
The press release gives us no explanation at all what is meant by ADC or how it overcomes resistance. I have, in 50+ years of consulting and then academia, encountered many very smart people who are fooled by hucksters or even by some flawed idea of their own.
Time will tell but I am very skeptical of this being a “breakthrough”.
Just like fusion, it will always be 30 years away commercially
None of the links tell how it works.
Story tip: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-quietly-released-study-showing-green-energy-receives-far-more-subsidies-fossil-fuels
Hardly quiet – anyone with more than 2 brain cells can see what’s happening
https://climatechangedispatch.com/a-giant-tesla-battery-caught-fire-and-they-just-let-it-burn/
Batteries are high risk – putting them on roads is both irresponsible and cavalier – law suits should be launched by anyone suffering collateral damage
https://www.netzerowatch.com/no-climate-signal-in-heatwave-deaths/
The usual alarmist mob seem happy to continue to deceive and make hysterical non factual rants in their crusade to corrupt science and welfare of the masses
The amount of heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean is falling. This is current data, not a forecast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC006/IDYOC006.202310.gif
WSJ:
How ‘Preapproved Narratives’ Corrupt Science
Especially in climate and Covid research, abuse of peer review and self-censorship abound.By Allysia Finley Oct. 1, 2023 11:45 am ET
https://archive.ph/Yttxo#selection-4285.0-4347.24
The new head of the |IPCC says his priorities include:
Is it too much to hope that that diversity will include diversity of ideas?
No the only area where diversity now exists is ‘gender’.
About 4.6 million people die each year from cold weather compared to about 0.5 million people dying each year from hot weather.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext
Heating costs are trillions each year.
Bloomberg estimates $US 200 Trillion to stop warming by 2050.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-05/-200-trillion-is-needed-to-stop-global-warming-that-s-a-bargain?embedded-checkout=true
There are 2 billion households in the world, so that is $US 100,000 per household. 90% of households in the world can’t pay anything, so that would be $US 1 million per household in developed nations spread over about 30 years or about $US 35,000 per year. That is completely unaffordable.
Almost everybody in the developed world would prefer 1 degree Celsius of warming and a million dollars to stopping 1 degree of warming and losing a million dollars.
It is still very cold outside the tropics. I’m getting ready for winter now.
This seems like a good place to congratulate Watts Up With That and Anthony Watts for reaching a passing 500,000,000 hits. In fact, as of this writing, the blog has added another 524,493 hits to that total. This information must be going somewhere. Great job!