New Study: Total Number of Attributable Deaths Due to Cold In Pune, India, Nearly 7 Times Higher Than Heat Deaths

Reposted from the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

Cold Far More Deadly Than Heat

Everyone knows that weather extremes like storms and extreme temperatures cause deaths. According to global warming alarmists, more heat will mean more deaths, and so it would be better if temperatures cooled off to levels seen 50 years ago.

Source: Ingole et al

However, a new paper: “Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature in Pune city, India: A time series analysis from 2004 to 2012“, led by Vijendra Ingole of the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, looked at the relevance of ambient temperature as a risk factor for health in urban Pune city, India and found that the total number of attributable deaths due to cold is higher than heat.Focus on cold reveals it’s far deadlier

According to the study, most of studies assessing the effects of non-optimum temperatures on health and have been conducted in the developed world, whereas in India, the limited evidence on ambient temperature and health risks and has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves. But the authors focused on short term association between all temperatures and mortality in urban Pune, India.

The team of scientists applied a model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city from the year January 2004 to December 2012 and calculated temperature attributable mortality fractions for total heat and total cold.

Men hit harder

The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures. But the cold effect (5.72%) was nearly 7 times greater than heat 0∙84%.

Moreover: “The gender stratified analysis revealed that the highest burden among men both for heat and cold.”

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griff
April 26, 2022 2:25 pm

but that’ll be changing, won’t it?

Mr.
Reply to  griff
April 26, 2022 3:33 pm

Yep.
Even more poor old folks will be croaking from hypothermia because they can’t afford home heating as a result of lunatic green energy policies like banking 100% electricity coming from wind & solar.

Criminal prosecutions should be launched against the enablers and perpetrators of the wind & solar deceits.

Robert B
Reply to  Mr.
April 26, 2022 5:37 pm

Pretty sure that he meant the findings in the paper. Isn’t that right, Griff?

Reply to  griff
April 26, 2022 4:19 pm

“but that’ll be changing, won’t it?”
Not likely. The major change in temperatures is not in the direction of higher maximum temperatures, but rather warmer minimum temperatures. So the change will be in the direction or more survivors…Isn’t that a good thing, Griff?

LdB
Reply to  griff
April 26, 2022 7:04 pm

Yep that 2 degrees is really going to make a difference … oh dear Griff I hope you don’t wear a jumper you might die.

Redge
Reply to  griff
April 26, 2022 10:09 pm

but that’ll be changing, won’t it?

I very much doubt it, Griff mate

We can but hope

Cold weather kills many more people than hot weather. Link

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  griff
April 27, 2022 12:14 am

When? Hi, griff. Thought you were hiding in your basement.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
April 27, 2022 3:50 am

He has probably been crying over Twitter being de-nazified.

Reply to  griff
April 27, 2022 3:52 am

No, just the other way round.

Slowroll
Reply to  griff
April 27, 2022 10:29 am

Why would it? People seem to thrive in the tropics. I believe you are what’s known as a shit-stirrer.

TonyG
Reply to  griff
April 27, 2022 10:42 am

In one sentence, griff confirms that he doesn’t even understand what he espouses.

Ted
Reply to  griff
April 27, 2022 12:31 pm

The average high in April is 100 degrees. The average low in the coldest month is 52. It should have already changed. Pune temperatures are higher than what 98% of the population would experience even in the most catastrophic scenarios.

Felix
April 26, 2022 2:48 pm

Saudi Arabian researcher claims heat is less harmful?

Oil exporting country researcher claims fossil-fueled climate warming is beneficial?

CONFLICT OF INTEREST! Cancel this!

Mr.
Reply to  Felix
April 26, 2022 3:37 pm

It’s not a ‘one-size-fits-all world’, you do realise?

Billions of people in China, Scandanavian countries, Russia, North America would welcome warmer climates.

So would food growers and consumers throughout the world.

Ron Long
Reply to  Mr.
April 26, 2022 4:30 pm

I’m guessing that you think that 80% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the Lower 48 border with the United States because they are escaping cold and looking for warmth. So, what the heck is Tradeau doing trying (an act of futility) to cool down the earth?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Ron Long
April 27, 2022 12:11 am

He’s griff’s special friend?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Mr.
April 27, 2022 12:11 am

Food growers welcome more CO2 too.

Felix
Reply to  Felix
April 26, 2022 3:43 pm

Seems I need to open a sarcasmeter repair business.

Mr.
Reply to  Felix
April 26, 2022 5:30 pm

You can borrow mine Felix 🙂

LdB
Reply to  Felix
April 26, 2022 7:05 pm

Stupid Idiot posting .. Cancel this.

Rud Istvan
April 26, 2022 3:49 pm

Fun satirical comment.
So, India and China are increasing coal consumption. And now a new study in India proves that is a GOOD thing because cold kills so warmer is better. Climate alarmists will assert Fossil Fuel Industry paid for propaganda!!

Bob Weber(@coolclimateinfo)
April 26, 2022 4:24 pm

The highest Indian CV-19 attributed deaths last year happened during May, the hottest month:

comment image

Robert B
Reply to  Bob Weber
April 26, 2022 5:46 pm

The highest number of active cases was in mid May at nearly 4 M, up from half a million at the end of March. The other three peaks in deaths correlate well with peaks in active cases, Sep 2020 and Feb this year, and lower mortality with new strains.

Your plots are deliberately misleading.

Bob Weber(@coolclimateinfo)
Reply to  Robert B
April 27, 2022 7:14 am

The point was sicknesses for 2021 did not follow the pattern from the post. My information is factual, and I don’t care if other periods were different, and who knows whether ‘new strains’ are real and not just useful rhetorical fabrications.

Do you have an explanation for why in 2021 there were fewer CV-19 deaths in the cold season than the warm season? If cold deaths are supposed to outnumber by 7x warm deaths (as a rule per the post?) how did this happen? Did you address that issue?

J Dworek
Reply to  Bob Weber
April 27, 2022 10:40 am

I’m not sure what you are trying to convey here (that heat actually DOES kill more, or some sort of Virus claim bent) but the study looked at the years 2004-2012. Trying to throw in data from a pandemic in an attempt to refute a study’s conclusions about temperature (not pandemic) deaths seems a little dis-ingenuous if not a bit of a red-herring argument.

Robert B
Reply to  Bob Weber
April 27, 2022 1:35 pm

“Do you have an explanation for why in 2021 there were fewer CV-19 deaths in the cold season than the warm season?”

You cherry picked your data. This year, there was a spike in cases in one of the coldest months and a corresponding spike in daily deaths. In 2020, it happened in a much cooler month than May. There is only a correlation if you cherry pick your data and if only data for daily deaths for 2021 were available, there would still be a one in 12 chance that it was a coincidence so not conclusive. The spike in active cases which happened in different sessons in other years, clearly shows that it’s just a coincidence.

I like to define science as the art of discovering that you were wrong. That’s why cherry picking data and censorship are so anti-science. If this paper is wrong, its for someother reason.

Robert of Texas
April 26, 2022 5:38 pm

Wait a minute – both hot and cold are due to CO2 climate change so it all counts as climate deaths. In fact, since we all live embedded in a climate, all deaths are due to CO2 if you ever go outdoors. This explains why modern-day weather-forecasters never go outside.

Kit P
April 26, 2022 6:26 pm

Another BS study! Root blame at its best.

When I was a kid, I made good pocket change shoveling snow, racking leaves, and mowing lawns. I remember an old retired guy had a heart attack and died shoveling snow.

When I retired, I figured the biggest risk is a slow death by recliner. So I keep busy often with manual labor.

Many years ago, I did root cause analysis. One of the rules is weather is never a root cause.

So if I have done things hundreds of times, in all kinds of weather, and get old and die; what is the cause of my death?

Statistics do not identify the root cause to prevent future deaths. Poor public planning to protect vulnerable populations in extreme weather conditions is often the root cause.

Robert B
Reply to  Kit P
April 27, 2022 1:38 pm

“Poor public planning to protect vulnerable populations in extreme weather conditions is often the root cause.”

In most of the studies finding that cold kills more people, they do suspect that lack of preparedness for the cold is the reason.

AntonyIndia
April 26, 2022 7:17 pm

Pune is at an elevation of 560 m and has summer rains. Record low is 1.7 C in January, record high 43.4 C in May. It is a well developed city with lots of IT services and a population of over 3 million.

Izaak Walton
April 26, 2022 9:48 pm

It is worth noting that the paper has an unusual definition of “extreme cold”. In January in Pune the average maximum temperature is about 30C and this while the minimum recorded temperature in their study was about 14C. So their definition of extreme cold would count as a heat wave in many places. And not only that according to their analysis if the temperature drops to 15 degrees for a day then you are signficantly less likely to die that day but a lot more likely to die in 20 days time.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 27, 2022 3:56 am

You learned what “relatively” is.

Tinny
April 26, 2022 10:53 pm

They ‘applied a model’, ie made stuff up.
Stopped reading right there.

H.R.
Reply to  Tinny
April 27, 2022 6:08 am

I think the model is more along the lines of the type discussed by Box and Draper in this book, Tinny. Nothing at all like the GCMs.

(Empirical Model Building and Response Surface Methodology, Box and Draper)

https://books.google.com/books/about/Empirical_model_building_and_response_su.html?id=QO2dDRufJEAC

Chaswarnertoo
April 27, 2022 12:10 am

10 times, in the UK.

Mike Maguire
April 27, 2022 1:29 am

In other breaking news…”water is wet”.

Hold on….climate science has redefined dihydrogen monoxide as pollution
because it warms the earth.

We must drastically reduce the amount in our atmosphere ASAP
because newly updated climate models show that H2O is destroying the,planet,

Matthew Sykes
April 27, 2022 1:44 am

It ranges from 11C to 38 C,. https://www.google.com/search?q=Pune+induia+climate&rlz=1C1PRFI_enGB909GB909&oq=Pune+induia+climate&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i13j0i390l4.2987j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Much warmer than the rest of the world, yet even there, cold is a greater killer.

Climate Change is one big fat lie!

DMacKenzie
April 27, 2022 8:15 am

Excessive alcohol consumption is the primary cause of cold deaths, heat causes fainting…so the cold versus hot deaths thing isn’t a very good skeptic’s argument, except maybe with respect to possible bad outcomes for drunks.

H.R.
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 27, 2022 10:17 am

What’s the difference between passing out blind drunk and fainting, DMac?

Just my guess here, but if you go down in the cold, you’re no longer generating heat from exertion, and you risk hypothermia. If you faint in the heat, you’re no longer generating heat from exertion, which would seem to be a good thing.

But as Kit P points out above, conditioning has a lot to do with deaths from heat or cold. I should hope the researchers checked if that was a major cofactor.

ATheoK
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 28, 2022 7:17 pm

And, of course you fail to cite where to find those facts.

Until proof is available, your alleged claim is specious.

TallDave
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 30, 2022 6:20 am

nope, still would have lived if it was warm

TallDave
April 29, 2022 5:58 pm

another 20 degrees of warming and this trend might reverse

remember kids, in 2022 no place on Earth is too hot for life, only too dry or too cold

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