Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #434

The Week That Was: 2020-12-05 (December 5, 2020) 

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) 

The Science and Environmental Policy Project 

Quote of the Week:  Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thought-crime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it. Every concept that can ever be needed will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten. . . . The process will still be continuing long after you and I are dead. Every year fewer and fewer words, and the range of consciousness always a little smaller. Even now, of course, there’s no reason or excuse for committing thought-crime. It’s merely a question of self-discipline, reality-control. But in the end there won’t be any need even for that. . . . Has it ever occurred to you, Winston, that by the year 2050, at the very latest, not a single human being will be alive who could understand such a conversation as we are having now?” – George Orwell, 1984 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/450328-don-t-you-see-that-the-whole-aim-of-newspeak-is 

Number of the Week: 9 

THIS WEEK: 

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) 

Self-limiting, Logarithmic: For the past several weeks, TWTW has been discussing the research on the greenhouse effect done by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H) using the HITRAN database that began in the 1960s and is well established and tested. This database of both observations and calculations is used to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere. Using the calculations of W & H, Professor of Physics, emeritus, Howard Hayden extended their findings.  

The earth is cooled by outgoing infrared radiation, which has a longer wavelength than visible light. Greenhouse gases interfere with infrared radiation by absorbing and re-emitting photons at particularly wavelengths. Expressed simply, as the concentration of a specific greenhouse gas, CO2, increases, its effectiveness diminishes. In other words, as the amount of CO2 increases, its ability to further increase temperatures decreases. This is similar to an automobile approaching maximum speed. It will not go much faster no matter how hard the driver presses on the accelerator. 

In the highly influential 1979 Charney report, the committee attempted to get around this self-limiting characteristic by claiming, without physical evidence, that water vapor will greatly amplify the influence of CO2. But this amplification has not been found in over 40 years of atmospheric research. Thus, the Charney report is another example of one of the many dead-ends that scientists have speculated about greenhouse gases. 

There is nothing wrong with such speculation and errors, as long as scientists involved recognize them and correct the errors. As Richard Feynman explained in his famous lectures, scientific theory starts with a guess. The important step is testing that guess against all appropriate physical evidence.  

A common analogy is that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere act as a blanket protecting the earth from cooling too rapidly. Using that analogy, one can say that adding carbon dioxide to today’s atmosphere is like adding a handkerchief on top of a warm quilt. There is some effect, but it’s not noticeable. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy. 

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Employing the Scientific Method: Although he does not state so specifically, in a rebuttal published in AL.com, John Christy describes how he and Roy Spencer used the scientific method to correct early, minor errors in atmospheric temperature trends from data gathered by satellites for three atmospheric layers. Spencer and Christy are the co-developers of the method, first published in 1990. The data are based on the finding that the intensity of microwave emissions from atmospheric oxygen is directly related to temperature, thus allowing a conversion of these measurements to temperature. [Note that microwave emissions are of a longer wavelength than infrared emissions.] 

These data are published monthly, and verified by independent data gathered by different types of instruments on weather balloons. These are the most comprehensive global temperatures existing. Nothing else comes close. 

These data do not show dramatic warming of the atmosphere, where greenhouse gas warming occurs. Thus, the data as well as Christy and Spencer have been bitterly attacked by the “climate science” community. For example, Christy writes: 

Early on, though, the very clever scientists at Remote Sensing Systems in California discovered two issues with our dataset, both of which were immediately remedied 15 and 20 years ago respectively with only very small impacts. 

Yet, as Haapala has personally witnessed, members of the modeling community claim the dataset has been discredited. It does not meet their models. In the world of physical science, numerical models (hypotheses) must be adjusted to meet data, not the data adjusted to meet the models. Climate modelers appear to be living in an alternative reality. 

Further, when applying the scientific method, Christy and Spencer have been accused of being anti-science. Such is the nature of the “climate science” community and the politicians who back them. The work of W & H and Hayden on the observed greenhouse effect by analyzing infrared emissions, discussed above, is consistent with atmospheric temperature trends calculated from microwave emissions of oxygen. 

Further, as discussed in the July 25 TWTW, Christy and Ross McKitrick used 12 different datasets of evidence from three different methods to establish that 38 of the new models, CMIP6, prepared for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere over the time interval tested, 1979 to 2014. In many cases, the 95% confidence intervals of the models are above the 95% confidence intervals for the actual datasets. The conclusion of the McKitrick & Christy paper states: 

The literature drawing attention to an upward bias in climate model warming responses in the tropical troposphere extends back at least 15 years now (Karl et al., 2006). Rather than being resolved, the problem has become worse, since now every member of the CMIP6 generation of climate models exhibits an upward bias in the entire global troposphere as well as in the tropics. The models with lower ECS [Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (for a doubling of CO2)] values have warming rates somewhat closer to observed but are still significantly biased upward and do not overlap observations. Models with higher ECS values also have higher tropospheric warming rates and applying the emergent constraint concept implies that an ensemble of models with warming rates consistent with observations would likely have to have ECS values at or below the bottom of the CMIP6 range. Our findings mirror recent evidence from inspection of CMIP6 ECSs (Voosen, 2019) and paleoclimate simulations (Zhu et al., 2020), which also reveal a systematic warm bias in the latest generation of climate models. 

The “climate science” community is producing highly biased research and it appears to be incapable of correcting as required by the scientific method. It appears this community services interests other than objective science and can be termed bureaucratic science. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Measurement Issues – Atmosphere. 

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D-O Events: In their book Unstoppable Global Warmingthe late Fred Singer and Dennis Avery discussed a climate cycle of about every 1500 years discovered by Willi Dansgaard of Denmark, Hans Oeschger of Switzerland, and Claude Lorius of France. The discoverers were awarded the Tyler Prize (“environmental Nobel”) in 1996. The cycle is known as the Dansgaard – Oeschger Cycle or D-O events for short. D-O events were found in ice cores taken in Greenland. Others have shown that D-O events appear in Antarctic ice cores as well. 

Singer and Avery gave considerable evidence that the cycle was world-wide, not just limited to polar regions. They gave evidence from tree rings, stalagmites, dust plumes, insects, plankton, fossilized pollen, algae skeletons as well as changing human cultures to assert that the events influenced climate world-wide. The most plausible cause was the Svensmark Hypothesis that a dormant sun permits more high-energy cosmic rays to hit the earth, increasing cloudiness.  

Interestingly, members of the Niels Bohr Institute published in PNAS a discussion of D-O events. The paragraph on significance states: 

“The last glacial period was marked by abrupt, high-amplitude Greenland warming events, known as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) events, which were likely linked with Nordic Seas sea ice retreat. We reconstruct the sea ice variability during four D-O events 32–41 ka with unprecedented spatial representation and rigorous temporal constraints, using proxy records from two Norwegian Sea sediment cores and an East Greenland ice core. Our records reveal millennial-scale variations between extended sea ice conditions and reduced seasonal sea ice conditions, with rapid sea ice reductions at the onset of D-O events. Our findings imply that rapid sea ice reduction amplified ocean-atmosphere processes causing the abrupt D-O climate transitions, providing constraints for model simulations of abrupt climate changes and their mechanisms. 

It is good to see D-O events recognized and that they are unrelated to CO2. However, it probably will be some time before any recognition of their broad effect appears in PNAS. See links under Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice 

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Climate Modeling: Researchers from Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK produced a paper titled: “Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6.” The beginning of the abstract reads:  

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mean and variability. With the advent of multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), these assumptions can be scrutinized, as they allow a more robust separation between sources of uncertainty…” 

The opening of the introduction reads: 

Climate change projections are uncertain. Characterizing this uncertainty has been helpful not only for scientific interpretation and guiding model development but also for science communication (e.g., Hawkins and Sutton, 2009; Rowell, 2012; Knutti and Sedláček, 2012). With the advent of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), a systematic characterization of projection uncertainty became possible, as a number of climate models of similar complexity provided simulations over a consistent time period and with the same set of emissions scenarios. Uncertainties in climate change projections can be attributed to different sources – in context of CMIP to three specific ones (Hawkins and Sutton, 2009), described as follows. 

Uncertainty from internal unforced variability: the fact that a projection of climate is uncertain at any given point in the future due to the chaotic and thus unpredictable evolution of the climate system. This uncertainty is inherently irreducible on timescales after which initial condition information has been lost (typically a few years or less for the atmosphere, e.g., Lorenz, 1963, 1996). Internal variability in a climate model can be best estimated from a long control simulation or a large ensemble, including how variability might change under external forcing (Brown et al., 2017; Maher et al., 2018). 

Climate response uncertainty (hereafter “model uncertainty”, for consistency with historical terminology… 

Apparently, the modelers are unaware the main issue the models have is that the models have not been validated – that is rigorously tested against physical evidence showing that they duplicate the physical world, reality. As stated above, they greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere over 35 years and they do not duplicate the greenhouse effect. Uncertainty in the models means little compared with the discrepancy between the models and reality. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy. 

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ENSO: One of the problems of predicting the weather from year to year is that no one has been able to predict the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The shifting of El Niños (warm periods) and La Niñas (cool periods) alters surface and atmospheric temperature trends and precipitation. Writing for the Global Warming Policy Forum, David Whitehouse discusses how ENSO affects surface temperatures. Roy Spencer discusses its effect on atmospheric temperatures. Being able to predict these events would benefit humanity. See Articles and links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere and Changing Weather. 

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Storms of NOAA: For whatever the reason, NOAA has taken to naming storms of little significance and which would not have been observed before the satellite era. As a result, headlines scream increasing hurricanes, but they are in name only and have little impact. For the US, there has been no trend since 1900. NOAA is losing credibility. See links under Changing Weather and Science, Policy, and Evidence for problems with NOAA and the weather service. 

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Changing Seas of Portland, ME: The Maine Sea Level Rise Dashboard shows two trends for Portland: 1) “1912-2020 average: 1.90±0.10 mm per year or 0.62 ft (7.47 in) per century” and 2) “1995-2020 average: 3.08±0.93 mm per year or 1.01 ft (12.12 in) per century.” Both rates are shown on the accompanying graphs. Unfortunately, the website does not explain why there are two different rates of rise for the same location for the same period, 1995 to 2020.  

TWTW will guess that these different rates of rise come from two different sets of instruments that have not been calibrated. One is from tidal gages and the second from satellites. Unlike their colleagues in Penzance (Newlyn), England, apparently those reporting sea level rise in Maine do not believe the public they serve deserves an explanation. See links under Changing Seas. 

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How to Begin a Critical Letter: TWTW is disturbed about politicians using false science to establish policy. The issue is how to write a critical letter. Christopher Monckton of Brenchley provides a guide. The heading of his letter to the Editor of The Lancet states: 

Your suggestion that warmer worldwide weather has caused net loss of life, particularly among the world’s fast-declining population of poor people, is fashionable but misplaced. 

Monckton follows the opening with facts substantiating his claim. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Lowering Standards. 

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Tolerance: Several readers asked about the quotation last week from John Adams: “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” (1770) He said it as a defense attorney for the British soldiers involved in the Boston Massacre. The mob wanted revenge. Adams wanted the rule of law and tolerance.  

A decade after the Pilgrims settled the Plymouth Colony in 1620, the Puritans, who were intolerant, established the Massachusetts Bay Colony around Boston. In 1636, the Puritans banished Roger Williams who thought independently. Williams established Rhode Island on the basis of tolerance. Now, Paul Driessen reports that Senator Sheldon Whitehouse from Rhode Island wants those who think differently about the causes of global warming be punished. Tolerance has changed in Rhode Island. See link under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal. 

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Number of the Week – 9: CO2 Science reports on the results on yields from exposing nine durum wheat genotypes to high CO2 and temperatures. 

“The significance of the above findings is two-fold. First, in this worse-case climatic scenario for the future, none of the nine cultivars experienced declining yields while four experienced significant increases. This observation demonstrates it is highly unlikely that agriculturally-grown durum wheat grain yields will decline in the future and that they will most likely increase as farmers select and grow the genotypes that are most responsive to rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Second, this study further illustrates the power and ability of plants to cope with higher temperatures at higher levels of CO2. As demonstrated in numerous studies, higher CO2 levels almost always activate multiple ameliorative mechanisms in plants to help them counter the effects of high temperature stress.” [Boldface was italics in original] 

Forget the claims of global warming damaging US agriculture as stated in the US Fourth National Climate Assessment (2018) https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/. See links under Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science 

NEWS YOU CAN USE: 

Climategate Continued 

Climategate Revised: Quotations from the Major Players 

By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 30, 2020 

Censorship 

Censoring Jordan Peterson’s New Book 

By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Nov 30, 2020 

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC 

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science 

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013 

Summaryhttps://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf 

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts 

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014 

Summaryhttps://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf 

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels 

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019 

Download with no charge: 

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming 

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus 

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015 

Download with no charge: 

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate  

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008  

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data 

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019 

Challenging the Orthodoxy 

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases 

By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020 

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098

Link to prepublication version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf 

CO2 and Climate: A TutorialBy Howard “Cork” Hayden, Energy Advocate, Accessed Nov 27, 2020 

Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers 

By R. McKitrick and J. Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EA001281

John Christy: We don’t ‘attack science’ 

By John Christy, Alabama State Climatologist, AL.com, Nov 25, 2020 

https://www.al.com/opinion/2020/11/john-christy-we-dont-attack-science.html

The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science 

Much of climate research is focused on implausible scenarios of the future, but implementing a course correction will be difficult 

By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker Newsletter, Nov 30, 2020 

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-unstoppable-momentum-of-outdated

Link to one paper: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework 

By Brian C. O’Neill, Nature Climate Change, Nov 25, 2020 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00952-0

Monckton Letter to The Lancet on the ‘Climate Crisis’ 

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, The Heartland Institute, Dec 4, 2020 

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/monckton-letter-to-the-lancet-on-the-climate-crisis—december-2020

“Your suggestion that warmer worldwide weather has caused net loss of life, particularly among the world’s fast-declining population of poor people, is fashionable but misplaced.” 

GWPF/ AEF Webinar: Reforming Environmental Science 

Featuring Dr Peter Ridd, Joanna Nova and Alan Moran, By Staff, The Global Warming Policy Forum & Australian Environment Foundation, Dec 4, 2020 

No Evidence for Dramatic Loss of Great Barrier Reef Corals 

By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, Nov 30, 2020 [H/t GWPF] 

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2020/11/30/no-evidence-for-dramatic-loss-of-great-barrier-reef-corals-66

Five Reasons Why Internal Combustion Engines Are Here to Stay 

By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Nov 29, 2020 

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/29/five_reasons_why_internal_combustion_engines_are_here_to_stay_651051.html

Defending the Orthodoxy 

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 

By Flavio Lehner, et al. Earth System Dynamics, May 29, 2020 [H/t Climate etc.] 

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/491/2020/esd-11-491-2020.html

UN chief slams ‘suicidal’ failure to combat global warming 

By Staff Writers, United Nations, United States (AFP), Dec 2, 2020 

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/UN_chief_slams_suicidal_failure_to_combat_global_warming_999.html

Guest post: How declining ice in clouds makes high ‘climate sensitivity’ plausible 

By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, Oct 30, 2020 

Link to paper: Equilibrium climate sensitivity above 5 °C plausible due to state-dependent cloud feedback 

By Jenny Bjordal, et al. Nature Geoscience, Oct 26, 2020 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00649-1

[SEPP Comment: Plausible does not mean real!] 

Questioning the Orthodoxy 

Sustainable Newspeak by 2050 

By Peter Foster, Law and Liberty, Nov 30, 2020 [H/t GWPF] 

CAGW failed ‘Predictions’ 

By Rud Istvan, WUWT, Dec 4, 2020 

Study reveals IPCC’s worst-case climate scenarios are already off-track 

By Staff, University of Colorado at Boulder, Via GWPF, Dec 3, 2020 

Link to accepted manuscript: IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth 

By Matthew G. Burgess, et al. Environmental Research Letters, Nov 25, 2020 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcdd2

[SEPP Comment: A secondary issue to the primary issue, the global climate models have not been validated using physical data of the atmosphere.] 

CO2 Has To Be Suppressing Tropical Storms, If CO2 Is A Formation Factor Like NASA Scientists Suggest 

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 4, 2020 

After Paris! 

Will Trump send the Paris Agreement to the US Senate? 

By Benny Peiser, GWPF, Nov 30, 2020 

Problems in the Orthodoxy 

UN Climate Agency Slapped With Corruption Allegations 

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Dec 1, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire] 

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/un-climate-agency-slapped-corruption-allegations

Seeking a Common Ground 

Preventing Ecosystem Collapse: Alaska’s Kelp Forests 

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Dec 4, 2020 

http://landscapesandcycles.net/preventing-ecosystem-collapse-alaska-kelp-forests.html

[SEPP Comment: Part I of a series examining “threatened” ecosystems. As Steele writes, only Asia’s Aral Sea ecosystem has “collapsed” largely from massive increases in irrigation stopping the inflow of water.] 

Radio-Canada Ombudsman Finds Standards Violations in Inaccurate Reporting on Extreme Rainfall Trends in Canada 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 28, 2020 

Science, Policy, and Evidence 

U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction is Crippled by the Division between NOAA and the Academic Community. But a Rare Opportunity Beckons. 

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 3, 2020 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-numerical-weather-prediction-is.html

“Turf Battles, Ego, and the Inefficiency of Big Bureaucracies” 

Vanishing Congress cedes too much power to regulators 

Founders feared legislature would dominate executive branch 

By Andrew Wheeler, The Washington Times, Dec 2, 2020 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/dec/2/vanishing-congress-cedes-too-much-power-to-regulat/

Conservatives will regret Boris Johnson’s radical Net Zero targets 

Press Release, GWPF, Dec 4, 2020 

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science 

Effects of CO2 and Warming on a Tropical Pasture Species 

Carvalho, J.M., Barreto, R.F., Prado, R.M., Habermann, E., Martinez, C.A. and Branco, R.B.F. 2020. Elevated [CO2] and warming increase the macronutrient use efficiency and biomass of Stylosanthes capitate Vogel under field conditions. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science 206: 597-606. Dec 4, 2020 

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/dec/a2.php

Ocean Acidification Impacts on the Early Life Stages of the Orange-spotted Grouper 

Lonthair, J., Hwang, P.-P. and Esbaugh, A.J. 2020. The early life stages of the orange-spotted grouper, Epinephelus coioides, exhibit robustness to hypercapnia. ICES Journal of Marine Science 77: 1066-1074. Dec 2, 2020 

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/dec/a1.php

Interactive Effects of CO2 and High Temperature on Nine Wheat Genotypes 

Sabella, E., Aprile, A., Negro, C., Nicoli, F., Nutricati, E., Vergine, M., Luvisi, A., De Bellis, L. 2020. Impact of climate change on durum wheat yield. Agronomy 10, 793; doi:10.3390/agronomy10060793. Nov 30, 2020 

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a13.php

Measurement Issues — Surface 

GHCN V3 Unadjusted Data Shows Bahia Blanca, Argentina Had A Cooling Trend Since 1880 

By Kirye, Tony Heller’s Blog, Nov 30, 2020 

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/11/ghcn-v3-unadjusted-data-shows-bahia-blanca-argentina-had-a-cooling-trend-since-1880/

[SEPP Comment: 25% of the stations in South America had a cooling trend since 1880!] 

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere 

UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2020: +0.53 deg. C 

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 1, 2020 

Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/november2020/202011_map.png 

Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/november2020/202011_bar.png 

Changing Weather 

Roger Pielke Jr.’s 2020 Hurricane Season Recap 

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 1, 2020 

Link to one paper: Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017 

By Jessica Weinkle, et al. Nature Sustainability, Nov 26, 2018 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0165-2

No, It Was Not A Record Hurricane Season! 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 3, 2020 

Another warm El Nino year 

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Dec 3, 2020 

Link to WMO Press Release: 2020 on track to be one of three warmest years on record 

By Staff, WMO, Dec 2, 2020 

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2020-track-be-one-of-three-warmest-years-record

“The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water.”??? 

[SEPP Comment: The organization is also a parent organization to the UN IPCC, which is highly politicized.] 

The new Dust Bowl that even the BBC blames on green climate policies 

By Geoff Hill, The Conservative Woman, Dec 2, 2020 

Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations 

6,000 years of arrows emerge from melting Norwegian ice patch 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2020 

Changing Seas 

Maine Sea Level Rise Dashboard 

By Staff, Maine Geological Survey, Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry, Accessed Dec 2, 2020 

https://mgs-collect.site/slr_ticker/slr_dashboard.html

The Pacific islands which are growing, despite sea level rise 

By Michael Daly, Stuff, Dec 2, 2020 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/science/123559259/the-pacific-islands-which-are-growing-despite-sea-level-rise

Another New Study Determines Sea Surface Temperatures Were 1-5°C Warmer Than Now During The Last ICE AGE 

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 30, 2020 

Link to one paper: Forcing of western tropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature across three glacial-interglacial cycles 

By Alicia Hou, et al. Global and Planetary Change, May 2020 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818120300400

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice 

The climate changed rapidly alongside sea ice decline in the north 

News Release by Niels Bohr Institute, Dec 4, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire] 

https://phys.org/news/2020-12-climate-rapidly-sea-ice-decline.html

Link to paper: Rapid reductions and millennial-scale variability in Nordic Seas sea ice cover during abrupt glacial climate changes 

By Henrik Sadatzki, et al. PNAS, Sep 23, 2020 

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/47/29478

There’s a lot of ice in the Arctic (Part III) 

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 2, 2020 

Upheaval – A Short Novel [By Susan Crockford] 

Book Review by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 1, 2020 

Lowering Standards 

Lancet’s Heat-Related Deaths Con Trick 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2020 

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism? 

Trump administration approves controversial oil testing method in Gulf of Mexico 

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 3, 2020 

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/528649-trump-administration-approves-controversial-oil-testing-method-in

“However, critics argued that the agency didn’t do enough to protect endangered species like the Bryde’s whale, of which there were fewer than 100 remaining as of last year.” 

[SEPP Comment: A red herring argument. The number of whales has nothing to do with the issue: Does the method harm whales?] 

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague? 

40,000 years of progress overnight 

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 2, 2020 

Global Warming No Longer Out Of Control 

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 1, 2020 

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/12/global-warming-no-longer-out-of-control/

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.  

New Zealand declares a climate change emergency 

Jacinda Ardern calls climate change ‘one of the greatest challenges of our time’ and pledges carbon-neutral government by 2025 

By Phil Taylor, The Guardian, Dec 1, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire] 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/02/new-zealand-declares-a-climate-change-emergency

[SEPP Comment: The islands are about to be overwhelmed with vegetation from increasing CO2-caused photosynthesis?]  

New Zealand PM has just given permission for climate zealots to break laws: “it’s an emergency”! 

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 3, 2020 

https://joannenova.com.au/2020/12/new-zealand-pm-has-just-given-permission-for-climate-zealots-to-break-laws-its-an-emergency/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]  

City Of London To Go Solar! 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 2, 2020 

“Needless to say, the City won’t actually be using electricity from the new solar farm, which is in Dorset. And they will be totally reliant on grid power, including fossil fuels at night,” 

Dear Mr. Ambassador 

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 2, 2020 

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.  

Sheldon Whitehouse’s Climate Inquisition Continues 

By Paul Driessen, The Heartland Institute, Dec 1, 2020 

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/sheldon-whitehouses-climate-inquisition-continues

Trump appoints NOAA climate skeptic to panel selecting National Medal of Science winners 

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Dec 3, 2020 

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/528652-trump-appoints-climate-denying-noaa-staffer-to-panel-selecting

“In Senate testimony in 2014, he [Legates] argued that the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was wrong in its assertion the humans are a main driver behind climate change.” 

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda 

Climate ‘apocalypse’ fears stopping people having children – study 

Survey of 600 people finds some parents regret having offspring for same reason 

By Damian Carrington, The Guardian, Nov 27, 2020 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/27/climate-apocalypse-fears-stopping-people-having-children-study

“There is also growing evidence of climate anxiety affecting mental health and earlier in 2020 more than 1,000 clinical psychologists signed an open letter warning of ‘acute trauma on a global scale’. Last week, a survey revealed that more than half of child and adolescent psychiatrists in England were seeing patients distressed about the state of the environment.” 

[SEPP Comment: Can the UN IPCC be sued for creating “climate anxiety” with false propaganda?] 

Expanding the Orthodoxy 

Environment award for man who stopped new coal power plant in Ghana 

Video produced by Huong Ly and Trystan Young, BBC, Dec 1, 2020 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-55105224

[SEPP Comment: According to worldometers, Ghana ranks 139th in 2017 by GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) per capita estimated to be $4500, or 26% of the world average. Keep it burning sticks and dung! https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/] 

Questioning European Green  

Unreliable, Most Expensive: Green Energies Make Germany’s Electricity Prices Highest In Europe! 

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 28, 2020 

[SEPP Comment: The big green race: Which country can bankrupt its citizens the fastest?] 

A handy guide to going Green 

By Andy Shaw, Spectator Life, Nov 27, 2020 

“The government has announced their Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution. It will bring electricity to light homes, gas for cooking and cars to drive! You may think that we already have these things, but this is a Green revolution, everything that we have got used to will be re-invented.” 

CCGTs On Death Row [Combined Cycle Gas Turbines] 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 1, 2020 

Link to report: A CCGT window of opportunity 

As the queue of UK CCGTs for sale grows, we analyse generation margins & challenge the current investment opportunity. 

By Staff, Timera Energy, Nov 30, 2020 

“None of this has anything to do with the efficiency of CCGTs. It is a situation entirely created by public policy, which has interfered with the normal operation of a well-established energy market.” 

Questioning Green Elsewhere 

Climate News – December 2020 

By Alan Moran, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Dec 2, 2020 

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2020/12/climate-news-december-2020.html

[SEPP Comment: Includes a collection of revealing graphs: Ten countries with the largest reductions and ten countries with the largest increases in CO2 emission, 2019; Number of Workers to Produce the Same Amount (13.3M Kilowatt hours of Electricity, 2019; Two-century Trend in Global Life Expectancy, Fossil Fuel Consumption and Atmospheric CO2 (from CO2 Science).] 

Green Jobs 

Losing the green bet 

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 2, 2020 

“Our friends at the Global Warming Policy Forum complained that Britain’s alternative energy policy involves contracts going to foreign firms. But on this point we must demur in part. It would not improve a green-energy scheme to make it mercantilist or protectionist. If windmills are the answer to power generation, get the best value you can regardless of source.”  

Biden’s plan to create millions of energy jobs might work, but only because renewables are so labor-intensive and only at a very high cost 

By Mark Perry, AEI, Nov 26, 2020 

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/bidens-plan-to-create-millions-of-energy-jobs-might-work-but-only-because-renewables-are-so-labor-intensive/

“Unfortunately, Biden has fallen hard for the “jobism” fallacy that clouds and distorts the thinking and policy proposals of so many politicians and government officials. Biden’s “jobism” thinking mistakenly treats energy jobs as an economic benefit rather than as an economic cost. The goal should never be to maximize jobs; rather the goal should be to maximize energy production (or farm or factory output) with the FEWEST workers, not the MOST workers.” 

[SEPP Comment: Great graph on how many workers needed to produce the same amount electricity by type of generation. See link above.] 

Funding Issues 

Betting other people’s money on green 

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 2, 2020 

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/12/02/betting-other-peoples-money-on-green/

“The CPP, the Chief Actuary of Canada has said, must earn a real rate of return of 4% for 75 years to cover projected payouts [for government pension funds]. Good luck with that mate.” 

“There is this meme out there that big companies are extra-right-wing entities that send lavish cheques to deniers and oppose regulation. But it’s not true. Like GM, which just switched from Trump’s position on California’s strict new emissions to Biden’s, many are smooth operators convinced they can game the system. They may find, as carmakers in Europe are already finding, that feeding the crocodile in the hope of being eaten last is just exactly as bad an idea as it sounds. But in any case private companies no longer dominate financial markets. Public and parapublic entities do.” 

[SEPP Comment: The green dream may become a nightmare.] 

Litigation Issues 

DOJ, State Officials Among Supporters of Energy Producers in Supreme Court Case as Oral Arguments Scheduled.  

By William Allison, Energy in Depth, Dec 2, 2020 

Dutch Climate Activists Take Shell to Court Over Emissions 

A group of environmental organizations backed by thousands of Dutch citizens is launching a civil case against the energy giant Shell. 

By Staff, AP, Dec 1, 2020 

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-12-01/dutch-climate-activists-take-shell-to-court-over-emissions

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes 

There Is No Revenue-Neutral Carbon-Dioxide Tax 

By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Dec 4, 2020 

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/there-is-no-revenue-neutral-carbon-dioxide-tax

Subsidies and Mandates Forever 

Britain’s First Electric Forecourt (Paid For By Taxpayers) 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 1, 2020 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/12/01/britains-first-electric-forecourt-paid-for-by-taxpayers/

Established area for charging EVs. 

The Story Behind The Loss Making “Subsidy Free” Solar Farm 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 1, 2020 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/12/01/the-story-behind-the-loss-making-subsidy-free-solar-farm/

Energy Issues – Non-US 

UK insists can achieve 68 percent emissions cut by 2030 

By Joe Jackson , London (AFP), Dec 4, 2020 

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/UK_insists_can_achieve_68_percent_emissions_cut_by_2030_999.html

UK Power Station Capacity 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2020 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/29/uk-power-station-capacity/

“Even with all of these planned CCGTs, UK capacity looks extremely tight, given the extra demand on the grid in years to come. 

“Without them, the situation looks dire.” 

[SEPP Comment: And the Prime Minister’s plan proposed shutting down CCGTs, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines?] 

German Renewable Energy Insanity: Shutting Down a 5 Year Old Coal Plant, No Plan to Fill the Energy Gap 

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 4, 2020 

FES Costings [UK] 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2020 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/12/02/fes-costings/

Link to report: Analysing the costs of our Future Energy Scenarios 

By Staff, The National Grid, ESO, Dec 1, 2020 

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/analysing-costs-our-future-energy-scenarios

Energy Issues – Australia 

Aussie Brown Coal to Clean Hydrogen Plant will Address Carbon Capture “Eventually” 

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 4, 2020 

Energy Issues — US 

NERC: Pandemic, regional fuel shortages threaten winter grid operations in California, New England 

By Robert Walton, Utility Dive, Nov 23, 2020 

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nerc-pandemic-regional-fuel-shortages-threaten-winter-grid-operations-in/589462/

Get Ready for Nationwide Blackouts Under Biden 

By Jay Lehr & Tom Harris, Somewhat Reasonable, Dec 4, 2020 

https://blog.heartland.org/2020/12/get-ready-for-nationwide-blackouts-under-biden/

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past? 

Why Oil Won’t “Go Gentle Into That Good Night” 

By Jude Clemente, Real Clear Energy, Nov 29, 2020 

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/29/why_oil_wont_go_gentle_into_that_good_night_650896.html

“The quiet reality is that, leaving transportation aside, there are over 6,000 everyday products made from oil.” 

Nuclear Energy and Fears 

China’s first domestically made nuclear reactor goes online 

By Staff Writers, Beijing (AFP),  Nov 28, 2020 

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinas_first_domestically_made_nuclear_reactor_goes_online_999.html

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind 

Germany’s Enviro-Dystopia: Wind Parks Devastating Rural Regions At Catastrophic Proportions 

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 1, 2020 

https://notrickszone.com/2020/12/01/germanys-enviro-dystopia-wind-parks-devastating-rural-regions-at-catastrophic-proportions/

Recent Energy and Environmental News November 30, 2020 

By John Droz, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Dec 1, 2020 

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2020/12/recent-energy-and-environmental-news.html

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other 

Hydrogen Powered Planes 

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 1, 2020 

https://ddears.com/2020/12/01/hydrogen-powered-planes/

What is the real cost of green hydrogen? 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 28, 2020 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/28/what-is-the-real-cost-of-green-hydrogen/

In-depth Q&A: Does the world need hydrogen to solve climate change? 

By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, Nov 30, 2020 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-does-the-world-need-hydrogen-to-solve-climate-change?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Weekly%20Briefing&utm_content=20201204&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

Very long post. 

Forward To The Past! 

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2020 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/29/forward-to-the-past/

“‘The problem that we have is that fossil fuels are still too damn cheap.’ – Lucy Gilliam” 

“So, let’s get this straight. You would need more than 2000 of these wooden ships to replace one conventional container ship. And it would travel at a quarter of the speed. 

“And for that, the BBC think it’s a good idea to cut down millions of trees!” 

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles 

UK’s sole hydrogen car maker bets on green revolution 

By William Edwards with Veronique Dupont, Abergavenny, United Kingdom (AFP) Nov 28, 2020 

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/UKs_sole_hydrogen_car_maker_bets_on_green_revolution_999.html

German Drives e-Motorhome 7500 Km To The Top Of Europe And Back – But Had To Charge 95 Times! 

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 2, 2020 

https://notrickszone.com/2020/12/02/german-drives-e-motorhome-7500-km-to-the-top-of-europe-and-back-but-had-to-charge-95-times/

“Average charging time: 90 mins 

“2 hours charging for driving 1 hour” 

“Although Eusterholz’s adventure may have been fascinating, it shows that cargo transport using e-cargo trucks are a long way off.” 

Oh Mann! 

Who do you Trust? (Michael Mann and Climategate) 

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Dec 1, 2020 

https://www.masterresource.org/climategate/michael-mann-climategate/

Other Scientific News 

Space worms experiment reveals gravity affects genes 

By Staff Writers, Exeter UK (SPX) Nov 26, 2020 

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Space_worms_experiment_reveals_gravity_affects_genes_999.html

Link to paper: Comparative Transcriptomics Identifies Neuronal and Metabolic Adaptations to Hypergravity and Microgravity in Caenorhabditis elegans 

By Craig R.G. Willis, et al. iScience, Nov 25, 2020 

https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(20)30931-7?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2589004220309317%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

Other News that May Be of Interest 

Walter E. Williams 1936-2020 

By Thomas Sowell, Townhall, Dec 2, 2020 

https://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2020/12/02/walter-e-williams-19362020-n2580965?mc_cid=71ec5b22cb&mc_eid=f45f72e7d7

Dr. Walter E. Williams, R.I.P 

By Joseph Bast, The Heartland Institute, Dec 2, 2020 

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/dr-walter-e-williams-rip

What I Learned From My Brush With Trump 

Journalists should never again allow someone to create an alternative reality in order to seize the presidency. 

By Jorge Ramos, NYT, Dec 4, 2020 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/opinion/international-world/trump-ramos-authoritarianism-media.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20201205&instance_id=24754&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=59831859&segment_id=46166&user_id=600713400c5e414103c69dc935baaf47

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE 

Send a greenboat  

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 2, 2020 

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/12/02/send-a-greenboat/

[SEPP Comment: Not gunboat?] 

Prince Harry Makes Climate Plea; ‘What If Every One of Us Was a Raindrop.] 

By Simon Kent, Breitbart, Dec 1, 2020 

https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/12/01/prince-harry-makes-climate-plea-what-if-every-one-of-us-was-a-raindrop/

ARTICLES 

Weather-Upending La Niña Is a Headache for Farmers Around the World 

Characterized by cooler-than-normal waters in the Pacific, it causes dry conditions in some parts of the globe, heavy rains in others 

By Lucy Craymer, WSJ, Dec 4, 2020 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/weather-upending-la-nina-is-a-headache-for-farmers-around-the-world-11607077803?mod=hp_lead_pos12

TWTW Summary: The journalist writes:  

La Niña is shaking up agriculture in an already-tumultuous year for commodity markets. 

The natural weather phenomenon, known as the cool sister of the better-known El Niño, occurs every few years. It is characterized by cooler-than-normal waters in the Pacific Ocean, causing dry weather in some parts of the globe and heavy rainfall in others. 

Past La Niñas have created significant market volatility and raised prices for many foods, and the current edition is already pushing up prices of crops such as corn and reducing supplies of pineapples and mangos. This event has the potential to last till the Northern Hemisphere spring, according to government forecasters in the U.S., Japan and Australia who monitor sea conditions. 

So far, dry conditions have been reported in Brazil, Argentina, and parts of the U.S., and bouts of excessive rain in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia. 

La Niña 2020 has evolved quicker and with stronger intensity than many leading climate models predicted, analysts from J.P. Morgan said in November, calling the phenomenon the primary supply-side wild card for agricultural markets going into 2021. 

Prices of some U.S. crops have climbed this year, thanks in part to increased demand from China and a pandemic fueled baking craze. Futures prices for soybeans, corn and hard red winter wheat—the kind used in bread—have risen by as much as a third since a rally began on Aug. 10. 

As well as affecting prices, volatile weather could interfere with farmers’ ability to harvest and sell their crops. Australian farmer Mark Swift, now harvesting one of the best winter crops he has ever had, is hoping there won’t be much more rain in the coming weeks. 

We expect some rain but La Niña can turn it right on. It’s either Garden of Eden or Mordor, said Mr. Swift, referring to a grim realm in The Lord of the Rings. At the moment it’s Garden of Eden, so I’m wondering when Mordor is on its way back. La Niña also comes with the risk of increased hail and wind that, like the rain, could hurt the quality of his canola and wheat. 

Australian winter wheat production is expected to more than double in the current season, according to government data, following a widespread, yearslong drought. But heavy rains before harvest could reduce the quality and the amount of wheat produced. 

Even if production meets forecasts, it might not make up for declines in wheat output that could hit parts of South America, the Black Sea region and the southern U.S. unless they get rain soon. The regions are going through dry spells, and grain prices are facing upward pressure as a result. 

The last La Niña formed in November 2017 and lasted till April 2018. The biggest recent La Niña impact on the global food market came when one developed in July 2010, lasted through May 2011, and was followed by another later that year. The United Nations Food and Agriculture food price index—which includes globally traded commodities including meat, grains and dairy—hit a record high in 2011. 

In November, that index was near a six-year high. 

La Niña can lift prices for specialty products as well as widely traded global commodities, according to market-intelligence firm Tridge. Unseasonably heavy rain in Costa Rica has hurt pineapple production, it says, though U.S. restaurant closures during the pandemic has reduced demand and held down prices. 

The article concludes with discussing specific specialty products.  

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d
December 7, 2020 4:09 am

“A common analogy is that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere act as a blanket protecting the earth from cooling too rapidly.”

The common analogy at greatest fault is the fundamental term “greenhouse” gas. Greenhouses work by preventing circulation of gases and water vapor with the external environment. Take away the transparent barrier and they don’t work at all. A true greenhouse-like effect can’t be obtained in free atmosphere. A circulating, dynamic, and complex system can’t be analgous to a greenhouse, or a blanket, yet we concede this obvious challenge to the basic concept in every discussion of the topic.

Tim Gorman
December 7, 2020 5:50 am

““Uncertainty from internal unforced variability: the fact that a projection of climate is uncertain at any given point in the future due to the chaotic and thus unpredictable evolution of the climate system. This uncertainty is inherently irreducible on timescales after which initial condition information has been lost (typically a few years or less for the atmosphere”

As many here on WUWT are aware, Pat Frank has given us an estimate for the uncertainty of the climate models based on just one uncertain input. When you add in the fact that many of the inputs are uncertain with large uncertainty intervals (e.g. averaged temperature data) the uncertainty of the model projections is huge. Yet we never hear one word from those developing the models about their inherent uncertainty. To these computer programmers and mathematicians associated with these models there is NO uncertainty in what they are projecting. They are like the tablets handed to Moses – the word of God. Only a computer programmer or mathematician could consider a repeating decimal as infinitely precise and accurate – a classically trained person in physics or engineering would never consider such an assumption. Yet the so-called climate scientists do, the concept of significant digits is totally lost on them.

MarkW
December 7, 2020 8:15 am

Speaking of a lack of tolerance on the part of progressives:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/michigan-man-says-political-beliefs-caused-home-to-be-targeted-with-explosives

How long until the progressives succeed in making intolerance of dissent official government policy?

Hoyt Clagwell
December 7, 2020 8:38 am

If increased greenhouse gases make the world hotter and less hospitable to life, then why are the areas of the Earth with the most greenhouse gases lush and fertile, like anything in the tropics, while the hottest and most lifeless places on Earth are severly lacking in greenhouse gases, like the Sahara and Kalahari deserts, and Death Valley?

Rick C PE
December 7, 2020 9:25 am

d. No, I’ve seen this argument many times and it is incorrect. Any building with 4 walls and a roof would “prevent circulation of gases and water vapor with the external environment”. That does not make all buildings greenhouses. What is different about a greenhouse is the use of glass walls and roofs. Glass transmits the bulk of short wave high energy sunlight thus heating the building, but it blocks much of the out going long wave IR radiation from the warm interior thus slowing one of the energy transfer processes that cools the greenhouse. The term “greenhouse gases” simply indicates that these gases also transmit most high energy short wavelengths and absorb a higher proportion of long wave radiation similar to glass used in greenhouses. This does, in fact, somewhat slow the rate of cooling and hence the surface temperature is slightly warmer than it otherwise might be. In my opinion, the analogy to a heavy blanket and an added handkerchief is appropriate.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Rick C PE
December 7, 2020 11:08 am

Rick,

It might slow the transfer of heat at night leading to warmer minimum temperatures but during the day the effect gets totally swamped out by the sun. In fact, since a significant portion of the radiation from the sun is infrared (approx 50%) the CO2 actually blocks some of the infrared radiation by intercepting it and radiating it back out toward space. Thus as CO2 increases in the atmosphere it actually causes maximum temperatures to be less during the day than they would be without the CO2.

d
Reply to  Rick C PE
December 7, 2020 12:17 pm

Actually, no Rick C — The warming effect of the sun is too much for a greenhouse in the summer, and it must be vented, and sometimes shaded, in order to be used. In late spring and early fall, the roof vents of the midwest greenhouses I worked in as a teenager were closed only from late afternoon through early morning, and during summer they were opened all the time, even overnight. The temperature differences inside at noon were still 10-15 warmer than the outside, but closing the vents resulted in 30 – 40 degree temperature difference.
Inside, the air isn’t mainly heated by sunlight, but by IR re-radiated from objects and materials inside the building. Mainly floors, North wall (cinder block), trays and soil in our case. White and reflective materials and covers inside the greenhouses make them more bearable when heat isn’t desirable, keeping the sunlight from the darker surfaces.
We raised roses and some decorative sorts of plantings for distribution by the parks department throughout the city. We were able to start and grow bulbs to flowering by the time snow melted in spring, and keep roses year round. Roses were a local specialty with a commercial grower in town who had donated the city’s park system green houses. We had some supplemental heat for winter darkness, but with a full day’s storage, it wasn’t used much.
Water vapor management was key. We needed to vent it during the summer, but add humidity during the winter especially when the auxiliary heat was working.
Rather than heating the air, this comes more under the heading of how household insulation works, how electronics and machinery cool, and how gases and fluids circulate. And a house with four walls does absorb and release heat to the inside, even in winter. You can’t grow plants in it without sunlight, which is why a poor glass insulator is used instead of a masonary wall in a greenhouse (on any side but the North, which doesn’t get you much sunlight anyway). With glass on all four sides, light mostly passes through and hardly warms anything.
CO2 is added to commercial greenhouses, but as plant food, not for its thermal qualities. In fact, it is quite cold when it is relesed from the bottle. It warms quickly from energy radiated from the floors and furniture, even at night or in shade.

Rick C PE
Reply to  d
December 7, 2020 5:44 pm

d. IR does not heat air very much and what does warm the air does so mainly be absorption of photons by water vapor and – yes CO2. But the bulk if the warning of air is through contact with warm surfaces and convection. Yes, it can get very hot in greenhouses (or cars) during sunny days and venting is the simple and cheap way of controlling temperatures. But it is the selective spectral absorption and transmission of various wavelengths that create the ‘greenhouse effect. Thus, a simple cold frame allows gardeners to extend the growing season by several weeks by storing solar heat in the thermal mass of the interior and soil during the day and slowing heat loss overnight to prevent freezing. We do it every spring to give our seed plantings a head start.

Kevin
December 7, 2020 11:25 am

“Every concept that can ever be needed will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten”

So very off target.
Brave new world was the better predictor of future culture.

Eric Stephan
Reply to  Kevin
December 10, 2020 10:33 pm

@Kevin “Every concept that can ever be needed will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten”

“So very off target.”

Not so sure. Consider how Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming has morphed into Climate Change. The former, easily argued: catastrophic – no! benign or beneficial; Anthropogenic – no! or maybe a tiny bit. Then the latter: inarguable. No-one has or could ever argue that that climate isn’t changing. Newspeak at its finest. MSM happy to oblige.

December 7, 2020 12:54 pm

Too much information

CD in Wisconsin
December 7, 2020 1:36 pm

Regarding the Quote of the Week: It’s nice to know I’m not the only one around here who likes to reference George Orwell’s novel and the idea of thought-crime. The 1st Amendment (as I understand) only applies to govt. The private sector can silence you as much as they want and in any manner they want when you do not toe the correct party line. And a propagandizing and self-censoring MSM only adds to the problem.

Regarding the research of W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H) and the logarithmic effect of CO2: It is going to be tragically stupid and ignorant to see the Biden administration acting on the climate alarmist narrative and costing this country dearly in money and economic well being without giving any attention, thought or consideration to W & H’s research. We are truly living in a world increasingly disconnected from the reality and sound science of the Earth’s climate. This too is somewhat of a reflection of Oceania in Orwell’s novel where we are told to believe what is expedient to believe for the powers that be, and never mind the truth.

Love Big Brother.

comment image

December 9, 2020 12:27 pm

[[The earth is cooled by outgoing infrared radiation, which has a longer wavelength than visible light. Greenhouse gases interfere with infrared radiation by absorbing and re-emitting photons at particularly wavelengths. Expressed simply, as the concentration of a specific greenhouse gas, CO2, increases, its effectiveness diminishes. In other words, as the amount of CO2 increases, its ability to further increase temperatures decreases. This is similar to an automobile approaching maximum speed. It will not go much faster no matter how hard the driver presses on the accelerator.]]

Zonk! Moose hockey detector went off!

The Earth’s surface heat caused by Solar radiation isn’t cooled exclusively by radiation. Convection does a lot of the job, driving a Carnot heat engine in the atmosphere along with a vertical treadmill that wastes the heat long before it reaches the top of the troposphere. CO2’s radiation absorption/emission wavelength of 15 microns has a Planck radiation temperature of -80C, which is completely outside the Earth surface’s normal temperature range of -50C to +50C and hence can’t even interfere with it. It’s not even infrared, but closer to microwaves. The entire IPCC CO2 global warming hoax is based on mass ignorance of Planck’s Radiation Law and how it gives every wavelength a temperature, as everybody experiences now firsthand every day with handheld infrared thermometers. Instead, it’s based on the Stefan-Boltzmann Law derived from it that integrates the Planck radiation over all wavelengths and shows that it’s dependent on the fourth power of temperature, then tries to invert it on a static flat fake Earth sans atmosphere and oceans illuminated by a weak Sun to derive a “global average temperature”, arriving at a number that’s 33C less than the measured value, “proving” that CO2 is supplying the difference. Of course there is no evaporation or convection, only radiation, and no rotation that brings it in, so this 5th grader model bears no relationship to reality and that’s why they use it.

Without this hoax, the IPCC empire is like a house built on a hill of horse manure, which keeps sliding deeper into it until it finally turns onto its side and fills up completely. All other Earth climate science is junk until it’s been refounded sans CO2 back radiation warming, and anybody who gives the IPCC credence for a second is letting them rob the world of trillions to save the world from a nonexistent threat, promising instead a new Dark Ages. No, CO2 doesn’t warm the globe a little less as more is added. It can’t warm the globe one iota at any concentration. -80C radiation can’t melt an ice cube. If you think so, show me your patent for a dry ice-powered microwave oven or flamethrower. Maybe a mountain of dry ice attached at the back 🙂

Want a patient and deep step-by-step walkthrough of the physics? It’s being shadow-banned by the IPCC because they can’t answer it. It’s amazing how a lie races around the world at jet speed while truth limps along behind. The fossil fuel industry is good not bad, and needs continued support for hundreds of years until the day arrives that unlimited cheap/free nuclear power is available to all. Even then, fossil fuels will always have their uses in the chemical/plastics industry.

https://www.quora.com/What-specific-chemical-properties-of-carbon-dioxide-causes-the-greenhouse-effect-Why-chemically-is-carbon-more-reflective-than-other-gases/answer/TL-Winslow

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