Study: Artificially cooling the planet is a ‘risky strategy’ – may create worse storms

From the UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

Proposals to reduce the effects of global warming by imitating volcanic eruptions could have a devastating effect on global regions prone to either tumultuous storms or prolonged drought, new research has shown.

Geoengineering – the intentional manipulation of the climate to counter the effect of global warming by injecting aerosols artificially into the atmosphere – has been mooted as a potential way to deal with climate change.

However new research led by climate experts from the University of Exeter suggests that targeting geoengineering in one hemisphere could have a severely detrimental impact for the other.

They suggest that while injections of aerosols in the northern hemisphere would reduce tropical cyclone activity – responsible for such recent phenomena including Hurricane Katrina – it would at the same time lead to increased likelihood for drought in the Sahel, the area of sub-Saharan Africa just south of the Sahara desert.

In response, the team of researchers have called on policymakers worldwide to strictly regulate any large scale unilateral geoengineering programmes in the future to prevent inducing natural disasters in different parts of the world.

The study is published in leading scientific journal Nature Communications on Tuesday, November 14 2017.

Dr Anthony Jones, A climate science expert from the University of Exeter and lead author on the paper said:

“Our results confirm that regional solar geoengineering is a highly risky strategy which could simultaneously benefit one region to the detriment of another. It is vital that policymakers take solar geoengineering seriously and act swiftly to install effective regulation.”

The innovative research centres on the impact solar geoengineering methods that inject aerosols into the atmosphere may have on the frequency of tropical cyclones.

The controversial approach, known as stratospheric aerosol injection, is designed to effectively cool the Earth’s surface by reflecting some sunlight before it reaches the surface. The proposals mimic the aftermath of volcanic eruptions, when aerosols are naturally injected into the atmosphere.

In the study, the researchers use sophisticated simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model to investigate the effect of hemispheric stratospheric aerosol injection on North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency.

They find injections of aerosols in the northern hemisphere would decrease North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency, while injections contained to the southern hemisphere may potentially enhance it.

Crucially, the team warn however that while tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic could be suppressed by northern hemisphere injections, this would, at the same time, induce droughts in the Sahel.

These results suggest the uncertain effects of solar geoengineering — a proposed approach to counteract global warming — which should be considered by policymakers.

Professor Jim Haywood, from the Mathematics department at the University of Exeter and co-author of the study added:

“This research shows how a global temperature target such as 1.5 or 2C needs to be combined with information on a more regional scale to properly assess the full range of climate impacts.”

The research, Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency, is published in the journal Nature Communications.

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The study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01606-0

Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency

Abstract

Solar geoengineering refers to a range of proposed methods for counteracting global warming by artificially reducing sunlight at Earth’s surface. The most widely known solar geoengineering proposal is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which has impacts analogous to those from volcanic eruptions. Observations following major volcanic eruptions indicate that aerosol enhancements confined to a single hemisphere effectively modulate North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the following years. Here we investigate the effects of both single-hemisphere and global SAI scenarios on North Atlantic TC activity using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and various TC identification methods. We show that a robust result from all of the methods is that SAI applied to the southern hemisphere would enhance TC frequency relative to a global SAI application, and vice versa for SAI in the northern hemisphere. Our results reemphasise concerns regarding regional geoengineering and should motivate policymakers to regulate large-scale unilateral geoengineering deployments.

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paqyfelyc
November 15, 2017 6:44 am

Most pitiful side effect of climate hysteria is that it allows any lunacy to be seriously considered, you just have to use code name “climate change fighting”.
And we had/have/could have
“dump iron in the ocean”, “dump soot on ice”, “pump ocean water a few km high”, “subsidize rich people sport car”, “reduce population 10x or 100x”, “burn trees instead of coal”, “pay huge money to Indian Moghul so that he buys iron foundries in Europe, close them, and move them to India”, “double electricity rate to pay for bird choppers”, “put dissenting voices in prison, or even kill them”
And now
“Let’s replay Krakatoa”

Some of these lunacies were not just considered, they were even implemented! So you cannot rule out a Krakatoa replay actually be staged.
Curious thing, to feel like a late day roman, experiencing direct live the fall of once great western civilization, because ruling class have rather make fuss about a quite literally airy matter, than cope with barbarians encroachment.

George Lawson
November 15, 2017 6:58 am

I wonder if these stupid people gave any thought at all to the billions of tonnes of aerosols that would be needed to make even a pin prick of an effect on the climate, and whether they considered how frequently for the rest of time that the exercise would need to be carried out.

Steve Zell
November 15, 2017 7:38 am

Like the old commercial: Don’t mess with Mother Nature!

Bruce Cobb
November 15, 2017 8:22 am

“Geoengineering” is the Warmunist’s straw man. They know it’s a stupid idea, but pretend that it almost might be a reasonable thing to do, if we were desperate enough, but we’re not quite there yet. But unless we act now, and devastate our economies and go back to living in dark, cold, mud huts, we’re doomed, so unless you want geoengineering….
Plus, it has a side benefit for them. It allows them to use an implied false analogy (as seen above with Mush-for-brains); that we are essentially already geoengineering the planet with our CO2, so whatever possible negative outcomes we see to these geoengineering schemes allows them (the think) to say “yes, exactly, so for the same reasons, we should not “dump” (they love that word) “carbon” into our atmosphere. So it’s a win-win, they think. But they still lose every time.

blueice2hotsea
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 15, 2017 10:16 am

Agriculture and economies are vulnerable to rapid climate change, natural or otherwise. Further, to the extent that geoengineering can be weaponized, it is an issue of national security and therefore of interest to the military.

So, geoengineering is very likely an area of active classified research. Otherwise, it would be an irresponsible neglect of responsibility. (Not saying that’s impossible.)

November 15, 2017 9:14 am

The Law of Unintended Consequences has been amply demonstrated in Australia with the introduction of rabbits, the introduction of prickly pear and the introduction of cane toads.

November 15, 2017 9:18 am

Geoengineering is geoterrorism.

Gmak
November 15, 2017 9:21 am

When we’ve killed the last of fur-bearing animals to keep warm in the next ice age as we are forced to used body heat and solar panels for 4 hours of the day to keep warm, we will breathe a prayer of thanks to these tireless minions of AGW who helped save us from a tropical planet full of lush vegetation and happy animals.

November 15, 2017 9:34 am

Silicate weathering gradually removes CO2 from the atmosphere over billions of years.
It came close to causing a mass extinction in the last glacial maximum with CO2 levels well below 200ppm.
Hominid fossil fuel burning is a Gaia response of the biosphere to survive.
Fossil fuel burning and CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere is the only sensible geo-engineering.
Attempts to stop it are genocidal.

MarkW
November 15, 2017 9:34 am

Hurricane Katrina was a recent event?

November 15, 2017 9:35 am

CO2 starvation might have been the reason for the end-Permian extinction of 95% of all living species.

Joel Snider
November 15, 2017 12:20 pm

Artificially cooling the planet is a ‘risky strategy’

Gee. Y’ think?

Gandhi
November 15, 2017 3:56 pm

All we need is some idiot “Frankenstein” climate scientist like Michael Mann or Gavin Schmidt to start messing with the atmosphere and we’re screwed! I pray to God that never happens.

November 16, 2017 9:35 am

It was one volcano, erupting periodically, that caused a global ice age. These people are absolutely nuts.

Gamecock
November 16, 2017 10:21 am

Weather is an act of God.

Geoengineering will make weather actionable.

November 17, 2017 12:33 am

Examples abound such as this misguided cloud seeding in Tasmania which resulted in flooding with fatality occurring. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-10/cloud-seeding-carried-out-over-tasmanian-catchment-before-floods/7499226?pfmredir=sm

Allan MacRae
November 18, 2017 6:15 am

Don’t worry, Earth is not going to get warmer.
By ~2020 Earth will start to get colder. NOW you can worry!