Dr. Ryan Maue said this morning:
Hurricane
#Irma is still intensifying. Now up to 155-knots (180 mph) Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.
NWS says: (bold mine)
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records.
At the moment, this is a very symmetrical hurricane, with little energy seemingly dissipated in chaotic turbulence or from high level shear effects.
I can better this prediction with one I made in 2013. I am pretty well spot on using the 60yr cycle. I tried to dissuade sceptics from complacency on the drought at the time. I encourage a full read of this:
“https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/hurricane-season-begins-with-a-new-record-hurricane-drought-for-the-usa/#comment-1323734
Oops, fouled the link
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/hurricane-season-begins-with-a-new-record-hurricane-drought-for-the-usa/#comment-1323734
Gary, that is not prediction. If you have a long enough history of an event and have averages and it falls below average for some time the unless there is a change in the underlying principles then therequest will be a time in which the frequency of the event increases. It is like stating that as we are going down into the valley the path to the next mountain will be up.
Actually returning to that thread, there was a lot of discussion about my comment. Some saying making such [predictions] a waste of time. They are worth a read. And maybe someone can make a post going back in Sixty-seventy year jumps to earlier clusters.
I feel the same depression that accompanied Fukushima: the depression that comes from knowing that this will be spun into the political narrative of the times, whilst the facts are ignored.
Whenever someone says ‘Fukushima disaster’ I say ‘What disaster? No one died’.
But in people’s minds, that’s what it was.
Leo, A number had doses that will lead to early deaths. A number of people drowned as well, many more than the projected to die from the extra radiation dose.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/equirectangular=-49.22,0.00,512
Watch it go.
Fascinating to watch but remember it’s based on models. Quote from their site,
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours
ocean surface current estimates
updated every five days
ocean surface temperatures and
anomaly from daily average (1981-2011)
updated daily
ocean waves
updated every three hours
baby hurricane Jose is riding on the Irma’s coattails
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-41.96,13.38,892/loc=-39.674,12.753
with a strong possibility of storm Katia forming at similar distance further ‘east.- south east’
Honest question to experts: what will happen if the military drops a large bomb in the middle?? that will raise the mb tremendously and …
My forecast for this hurricane is that it will hit southern Florida hard, but once it moves into north Florida and further north it will weaken quickly. This will most certainly be the case if the [eye] move overland,
Because what looks like that it will be coming to the aid of the SE of USA. ls the fact that the jet stream will be tracking much further to the south then normal. So over the SE the jet stream will be stronger then normal. Which should aid with the [break] up of this hurricane. But l think you can expect a lot of rain getting dumped over the area in the process.
“eye” not “rye” 🙂
Iniki was measured by NASA at 227 MPH at Kokee, Kauai, Hawaii. The reason it is not in the record books is that the anemometer/electronics fell apart. As they did with every other station on Kauai.
The Saffir–Simpson scale has categories based on how much damage they cause. Category 5 means total destruction and no matter how higher the winds are, no more damage can be done than total destruction, so for this reason any higher category is pointless.
Saffir–Simpson scale
Category
Wind speeds
Five
≥70 m/s, ≥137 knots, ≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h
Four
58–70 m/s, 113–136 knots, 130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h
Three
50–58 m/s, 96–112 knots, 111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h
Two
43–49 m/s, 83–95 knots, 96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h
One
33–42 m/s, 64–82 knots, 74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h
Related classifications
Tropical storm
18–32 m/s, 34–63 knots, 39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h
Tropical depression
≤17 m/s, ≤33 knots, ≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h