Guest post by David Middleton
Even with up to $10,000 in federal and state incentives, only 4% of car buyers in California chose electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles last year. That’s a huge problem in a state with rising greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, and with a goal to more than quadruple the number of zero-emissions vehicles on the road by 2025.
How can the state kick-start EV sales and hit its target of 1.5 million zero-emissions vehicles? To Assemblyman Phil Ting (D-San Francisco), the answer is simple: Spend $3 billion on dramatically higher state rebates — as in, upping the state’s ante from $2,500 to $10,000 or more per vehicle.
Under Ting’s proposal, AB 1184, the state rebate program would be redesigned to make the cost of a compact electric vehicle comparable to a similar gas-powered one.
[…]
But there are several problems that make Ting’s current proposal a no-go. For starters, there’s the staggering $3-billion price tag, which is six times more than the state has spent on rebates since 2010. There’s talk about dipping into the cap-and-trade auction revenue, but there already are lots of proposals for how to spend that money to reduce carbon.
More fundamentally, there’s no analysis of why Californians aren’t buying more electric cars.
[…]
Could it possibly be that 96% of Californian car buyers don’t want to purchase EV’s?
I work in Houston and live in Dallas. Last Thursday, I “evacuated” to my house in Dallas. Our downtown Houston office was partially up and running yesterday. We expect it to be fully operational by Tuesday. My Houston apartment complex never flooded and apparently never lost power. CenterPoint, the local grid operator, mangaed to keep the power on to 95% or more of their coverage area throughout the storm. They are now back to about 99%. Houston METRO, the local mass transit authority, was 50% operational yesterday and expects to be nearly 100% by Tuesday.
I plan to head back to Houston Monday or Tuesday. It’s about a 255 mile drive. My Jeep can go about 360 highway miles on a tank of gas. North Texas is currently experiencing a gas shortage. Most of the gas stations near my house were dry yesterday. I have to plan on not being able to buy gas between here and Houston.
What would it take to persuade you to buy an electric car?
An electric Jeep that can ford 2-3′ of water, with a 360 mile range and be rechargeable in less time than I might have to wait in a gas line in Houston next week… might be what it would take to persuade me to buy an EV… Only if it cost less than $40,000. But that’s just me… What about you?
Featured image from this article:
Bad Weather Guide: What to do if Your Electric Car Has Been in a Flood
BY NIKKI GORDON-BLOOMFIELD • FEBRUARY 13, 2014
It’s something we hope nobody who reads this has to encounter, but given the propensity for extremes of weather we’ve seen over the past few years — not to mention the weather the UK has been subjected to continuously for the past six weeks — waking up one morning to find your prized EV submerged in water is a real possibility.
Here at Transport Evolved, we’ve already discussed how you should drive in stormy, winter weather, but what should you do if your EV ends up in more than just a puddle? What if the water level is above the bottom of your car’s doors, and there’s muddy, wet water in the footwell? What if the only bit of your car you can see is above the water line?
[…]
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My neighbor had a top of the line Prius which she used daily after first purchasing. THe first day it snowed she could not get the car up the slightly sloping driveway. Even after plowing the driveway it was a 50/50 chance of getting up the drive. After the second winter and the same results with premium rated winter tires they gave up and got an SUV. I am glad to have my driveway back (they would leave it in my drive when they could not make it up the hill) and they are glad they do not have to walk up the hill.
Possibly with “Global Warming” we will have less snow and the EV will function in more areas.
I got held up by a Prius driver that could not make it up an icy hill ahead of me. I had to talk the driver into backing down and to the side of the hill toward some dry pavement to let me get on my way. It took several attempts to coax them into moving the car 20 feet down and over. They are definitely fair-weather types.
both my 97 crown vic and 2010 marquis have hauled a prius up hill hill here.
prius had small 4×8 trailer on it with lawn mower in it it. twice I have had 7×14 trailer with over 3K of manure on it hooked to my car WHILE I hooked chain to prius to get it over hill.
$20K purchase price including 20 years of pre-paid battery replacements, with a co-pay slowly rising after that. 7-15 minute re-charge time, 700 miles between re-charges (after the batteries are several years old). Roomy passenger and luggage space (I’m thinking like the 1950 family sedans). Hmmm, need some specific requirements on power and acceleration (doesn’t need to be a dragster, but able to do the occasional escape from some nut who seems to want to play bumper-cars at main street intersection), and cruising speeds (70-80 miles/hour).
First, there’s something seriously wrong with a product you have to pay people to buy. Secondly, people are supposed to want to “save the planet”, even if it means shelling out more money than they would otherwise. Maybe it means they need to double down on their climate communication. Because it seems to me that what we have here is a “failure to communicate”. Perhaps more cowbell would do the trick.
At this point, ALL the “climate!” hysterics sound like cowbell . . .
1:) would have to be diesel electric (like locomotives) with regenerative braking.
2:) the engine and braking must be enough to keep battery charged at all times w/o plugging vehicle into outlet.
3:) below 30 deg F system should always default to diesel engine during initial startup and warm up, no battery power used to heat vehicle. And that would mean pretty much from September to march here, already have 40 deg mornings.
4:) needs to haul a 7x14ft trailer (actually can haul 7×16 dual axle if needed) like my 2010 marquis can.
First off, it would have to be able to get the same cruising range as, say, a Honda Civic per charge. None of this 100 miles or less, with a realistic expectation of 50 miles or so per charge.
$40k. 10 year battery warranty. Half hour to 85%. 400 mile real world range. Small V6 performance.
Oh but the real requirements. California cannot limit/throttle/meter my recharging. California cannot consider my vehicle a load leveling device as part of the grid.
I would consider buying the smallest electric available if:
1. Golf courses would let me use it, and
2. They’d throw in a Ram 2500 Limited Crew Cab 4×4 as a buyer incentive.
Got to say the best electric battery would only make it halfway to El Paso from Dallas or Houston. Maybe. And West Texas is the last place in the world where you would want to run out of juice.
Still amazed at Volvo’s proclamation to scrap-heap combustion engines in 2018.
> “Still amazed at Volvo’s proclamation to scrap-heap combustion engines in 2018.”
Either all electric -or- hybrid. And it is 2019.
Able to commute to work during a blizzard, slippery snow rut roads, -18C (0 F), wipers and defrost on full for first 10 minutes then just wipers plus heater at max, 60 minute commute (30 minutes in good weather). Parked outside all day. No power. Commute home another 60 minutes. Parked outside overnight with just a block heater. Sound harsh? This represents about 50% of the commuters where I live. These conditions can occur from Oct to Apr! Calgary, Alberta Canada.
Musk Lemon: in this scenario, EVs have two big advantages. Firstly you can use your mobile phone or remote to start the car heating so it is toasty when you get to it. Secondly, traction control works far faster with an electric drivetrain so driving on slippery surfaces is easier.
If I would move to Athens I would, no smog restrictions on EV. If you live in Athens, Paris, London Tokyo or any other mega-city you will welcome a shift to electric cars. They are no solution for carbon emissions but definitely helpfull in reducing city smog. If you live on a Wisconsin farm, in the Ardeche or Scottish Highlands or any other remote place the prospect will not even produce a sorry smile.
Much reduced price, greater range, and much quicker recharge time. Also, changing batteries would have to be much cheaper.
I wouldn’t buy one.
a goal to more than quadruple the number of zero-emissions vehicles on the road by 2025.
=======
luckily 4 * 0 = 0. But why stop there? why not a million times more?
I’m sure it would be interesting to see how well the EV’s in the path of Harvey have coped with being awash and unable to recharge. If a normal vehicle is flooded you dry it out change all the fluids and most are none the worse. But I’m not sure how a charged battery pack would behave, might be an interesting experiment carried out from a safe distance of course.
James Bull
Seeing video and pics from flooding I always get a chuckle when I see submerged vehicles with their lights still on.
If California’s politicians ever walk their talk of climate change and decide to do what actually must be done in the near term future to convince a majority of vehicle owners in their state to look more seriously at buying electric cars, then those politicians must create an artificial shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel that mimics the real shortages that will begin to emerge in two and three decades time when the bow wave of peak oil begins to arrive and the price of transportation fuel everywhere in the country begins to increase at an ever-accelerating rate. (In other words, no near term pain, no near term or/ long term gain.)
If California’s politicians don’t enact a stiff tax on all carbon fuels; if they don’t adopt a policy of imposing what amounts to a carbon fuel rationing scheme on all the citizens of their state; if they don’t force an end to the extraction of petroleum from oil fields located within their state’s borders; and if they continue to allow the purchase of fossil-generated electricity from out-of-state sources, then they can be rightly accused of using the issue of climate change as nothing more than an excuse for pursuing their own California brand of crony capitalism.
Dave Middleton – for once I think we may be sort-of in agreement. I am an electric car enthusiast (for reasons that have nothing to do with the environment. I don’t do “green”), but I also believe that the job of good government is to keep the peace, to keep the lights on, and to administer justice. I don’t approve of politicians trying to “save the planet” (whatever that means), so I don’t go for the idea of huge subsidies. I think most of the 96% will migrate to EVs.
So I think your question is fair “What would it take to persuade you to buy an electric car?”. I already haveone, , but if I may rephrase your question slightly “What would it take to persuade most people to buy an electric car? My off-the cuff-answer:
1. Get them to drive a good one. Electric drive blows ICE engines out of the water as a driving experience, and freedom from big oil on the road is a good feeling
2. Get the purchase price down to parity with equivalent ICE cars. This will blow ICE cars out of the water on total cost of ownership
3. Get the range on a full charge up to 300 miles with heating or AC on. Most people on a long trip would like a potty stop and a coffee every 4-5 hours going cross country. For local driving, 300 miles is good for a week or two.
4. Get fast charge down to 20 minutes or less for an 80% charge.
The Californian politicians shouldn’t worry about adoption. All this will happen. What they should be worrying about is who will make the EVs. China is already building twice as many EVs as the USA and will shortly totally dominate lithium battery production. The Chevy Bolt has Korean battery pack and drive train. Americans should be cheering on Tesla because it is the only domestic game in town in this space. Forget Green. This is about survival of the auto industry
1. I know I would love to drive a Tesla Model S P100D… for about an hour.
2. That’s the lowest hurdle.
3 & 4. Not likely to happen any time soon at a reasonable price.
I’d need all of those along with 4-wheel drive and the ability to ford a couple of feet of water… I’d want those qualities even more than 0-60 mph in 2.5 seconds. Then, maybe, they’d get more attention than me just looking at them and saying, “Cool tech!”
Dave – 3 & 4 with 4WD have happened already but not yet combined with 2: Tesla Model X P100D. No idea about its ability to wade, but submarines use battery power submerged and diesel on the surface so making an X watertight shouldn’t be rocket science
I should have been more specific. A Jeep (w/o snorkel) can ford water for the same reason it can handle rough terrain. A 4WD Tesla doesn’t have off-road capabilities.
But does your electric car actually deliver the performance list you are advocating?
And given the dreadful environmental damage involved in the production of these electric toys do you feel happy about the prospects of wholesale adoption?
Incidentally the EU has just enforced another reduction in the power (wattage) of vacuum cleaners that people can buy on the specious grounds that this is an eco- friendly power reduction saving. Annoyed consumers however are already pointing out the stupidity of this claim because their experience is the wretched things don’t do as good a cleaning job and have to be run for much longer to do the same amount of cleaning. So, dirtier hygiene and no power saving.
How long do you really think it will be before they start reducing the power and range of electric cars to deter the deplorables from using too much power and traveling!
Answers on the back of an envelope to Angela Markell or Michael Gove please.
Moderately cross of East Anglia: no my EV doesn’t do that – but my next one probably will
heres my biggest issue really, I often tow trailers (7x14x3high full of wet manure weighs a LOT) with my marquis (21-23mpg) and if I got electric I would ALSO need second vehicle to tow.
waste of resources.
Here’s what it would take to convince me.
1. 8,000 to 10,000 pounds towing capacity
2. 300 mile range while towing a 5000+ pound load.
3 Can be fully charged from empty in under 30 minutes (no battery swaps)
4. Battery life of at least 2000 charge/discharge cycles.
5. Charging stations at least as ubiquitous as gas stations.
6. Purchase price under $50,000 with zero subsidies.
I would be an electric car if:
1. It flew, still waiting from my flying car
2. Was nuclear powered, not grid nuke – my personal nuke
You would have to convince me that I was missing out. That other people were getting something better than I was getting.
Making electricity expensive is probably not a good start. Making fossil fuel hideously expensive could work.
With existing battery tech, $5k purchase price and completely autonomous driving for my disabled wife.
With future battery tech, $10k purchase price and swappable non-toxic electrolyte like the sugar batteries people are playing with.
After hearing about lots of complaints about Tesla’s service problems, I hit the internet and found
this in a consumer review site :
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/tesla_motors.html
Takeway : these complaints have some pretty outrageous stories about Tesla and their customer relations (awful) and their policies (also awful) – can only have Tesla collision damage repaired at an “official Tesla body shop.” Guy reported a 2 MPH collisison , which gave him a flat tire and damaged wheel and small body damage. Estimate from Tesla shop : $10,000. Another had a low speed colision – battery needed replacement : $45,000 !!!!! According to Tesla, their battery cells cost $150 per kWhr. That battery was probably a large one , at 80kWhrs, which would make the cells cost around $12,500 plus whatever battery case parts needed replacement.
My takeway : AVOID Tesla Motors, at least until these horror stories stop occurring.
As I said before : electric cars are intrinsically simpler than ICE vehicles, ASSUMING you don’t design like Tesla – which has this bad habit of putting all manner of mostly useless gee whiz electronic crap in their vehicles (to impress their buyers), that only THEY can fix, and Tesla is not shy about hitting their customer’s wallet VERY hard. Seat headrests that cannot be adjusted – the car “automatically” adjusts them, usually in an undesirable way. Tesla seems to say “No!” to just about every customer request. I will personally convert my 57 Thunderbird to electric when a company provides a good DIY conversion kit. THis car would be child’s play to convert – it has no computers, etc – all it needs is a simple 12 volt feed from the battery to operate all the lights, etc.
And I would be able to perform any repairs myself. Screw Tesla. Screw Elon Musk, billionaire cheapskate.
Arthur: Now tell us what you really think.
As in the guy who sent a telegram as follows: F*ck you, strong letter follows.
Arthur – an electric 57 Thunderbird would be cool. I converted a Honda and the stuff I took out (a 2.2 turbo diesel) was a lot more complex than what I put in. Get good advice on managing the batteries though
These schemes, as seems always to be the case, are utopian.
Everyone has a suburban house with a big driveway, and has allocated parking at their work. They have high current car charging points at home, and their employer gives them free car charging. The climate is pleasant, not too hot, not too cold, car journeys are never too long, and they never have to go anywhere unexpectedly. Car charging stations on the highways are like huge parks, with drivers standing around relaxed, chatting and drinking coffee whilst they charge their cars, gently chastising themselves for having run the batteries down too far to be able to get home. No-one is ever in a hurry. No-one depends on them getting somewhere on time……
In the real world it’s Scotland in winter.
Me and my chums have just come off the hill after a day’s mountaineering. It’s late, dark, and sleeting, and 250 miles to get home, 5 hours at best, more like 6 in that sort of filthy weather. Then there’s the stops for refreshments etc..
My 12-year old diesel estate car, which has spent the day in a lay-by at the side of the road, miles form the nearest building, will do that journey back with what’s left in the tank from the outward trip.
It’s worth about £2,000, has done 120,000 miles, and is good for as much again.
Make that journey do-able in a battery powered car, without stops for re-charging, and I might just buy one, if they’re cheap enough…..and if I don’t have to replace the ‘tank’ every few years.
Oh, and they’d need to solve the charging issue for urban flat-dwellers. In my town we are lucky to get to park within 100 yards of home. Please tell me how I’m supposed to charge my car? Charging points at every parking space?
Nissan Leaf? Tesla?
What a joke.
Aside from the fact that electric cars cannot compete head-to-head with ICE cars, I resent the intrusion of government into my choice of vehicles. Cut out the inducements paid with tax dollars.
Just wait ’til they start “inducing” you to eat kale . . .
I’d buy an electric car when it comes with its own portable nuclear generator. Let me know when that happens….