Public Release: 2-Aug-2017
Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Hot and humid temperatures in South Asia, which contains one-fifth of the global population, will exceed the upper limit of human survivability by the late 21st century, scientists project, underscoring an urgent need to adopt alternative strategies on top of those currently proposed to alleviate climate change-induced temperature extremes. In 2015, the fifth deadliest heat wave in recorded history affected large parts of India and Pakistan, claiming around 3,500 lives. Many studies in South Asia have charted the trajectory of heat waves linked to climate change and their impact on human health; however, the forecast of “wet-bulb temperature,” or a measure of temperature, humidity and the human body’s ability to cool down in response, is not yet clear. After running high-resolution simulations under two climate scenarios, Eun-Soon Im and colleagues reveal wet-bulb temperatures are projected to approach the survivability threshold (35 degrees Celsius) over most of South Asia, and exceed it at a few locations, by the end of the century under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, while reaching dangerous levels (over 31 Celsius) under a mitigation scenario (roughly comparable to the goals pledged by the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change). The authors also found that the population exposed to harmful wet-bulb temperatures will increase from zero in the present day to about 30% under BAU versus only 2% under the mitigation timeline – a substantial difference that points to the significant impact of climate change mitigation efforts. The increase in humid heat raises important questions of environmental justice in agricultural areas where the inhabitants – the majority of whom work outdoors and have poor access to air conditioning – are most vulnerable, the authors say.
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What are the wet bulb high temperatures in this region today? What is the magnitude of the rise in wet bulb temperatures the authors are predicting?
The statement “the fifth deadliest heat wave in recorded history affected large parts of India and Pakistan, claiming around 3,500 lives” ignores ‘non-recorded’ history and the effects of population growth. There is little doubt that there have been comparable heat waves in the past 8000 years of habitation of the area that reached similar ‘heat index’ values, or that in the less-populated past there would not have been as many fatalities from heat waves. Also ignored is the adaptability of humans, who invented air conditioning specifically to deal with such conditions, and that the region continues to increase the per capita availability of electric power.
No, it does not ignore non recorded history. Since no data is available for non recorded history, it is useless to make conjecture about that time. it is still perfectly valid to compare what has happened during the time of recorded history.
“it does not ignore non recorded history”
“Non-recorded history”?
Has anyone ever told you you’re an idiot?
catweazle66, I quoted tadchem. Since I have seen the quality of your posts earlier, I won’t waste my time.
Good grief, guys! If it’s not recorded, it isn’t history. There is no such thing as “non recorded history.”
Yes indeed! The rants of folks like catweazle are amusing to watch. But it’s sad that some folks don’t have a logical bone in their body.
The study is legitimate research. It compares model outcomes from RCP4.5 (certainly doable) and RCP8.5 (a worst case outcome. Contrasting outcomes provides context. Unfortunately, they misrepresent RCP8.5 as a “business as usual” scenario.”
“Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia” by Eun-Soon Im et al. in Science Advances, 2 August 2017.
The Guardian further exaggerates this study to create alarmist propaganda: “Climate change to cause humid heatwaves that will kill even healthy people“.
Almarists will take the Guardian’s reporting and further exaggerate it. This is the alarmists’ version of telephone. The result created in the typical leftist’s mind will bear little resemblance to reality.
While you’all was discussing the differences in WB and DB and Temp, you seem to have missed the most important words:
” After running high-resolution simulations under two climate scenarios…”
Anyone know what the parameters of those simulations were? My guess would be worse case scenarios probably not even possible to come about.
Shouldn’t I be dead already, living in Taipei, and thinking a wet bulb temperature under 95 feels like a touch of fall is in the air?
No, because you don’t understand web bulb temperature.
Have any of these clowns actually been to SE Asia?
Yeah, I’ve lived in SE Asia for 20 years. The wet bulb temperature is not remotely close to 35C. So what’s your point?
Highest temperature here last year: 38.7 C, humidity at the time: 59%, air pressure 1014 millibars. From an on-line calculator, the wet-bulb temperature would have been 31.3 C. So that was a “dangerous level”? Somebody really should have told all the people enjoying it. (That’s very dry for us; median humidity that year was 72%.)
Were the folks you were talking about working in the sun for 8 hours per day?
It is pretty clear from the comments here that there is a general lack of understanding about wet bulb temperature. Wet bulb temperatures above body temperature is fatal period. And these conditions do not occur on planet earth. Not on the Texas Gulf coast, not sipping cocktails in SE Asia, not in Darwin.
We are being flooded by a series of “what if?” ancillary research projects allegedly related to climate change issues. The results from this research are based on the premise that climate change is human-induced and due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and bodes trouble for mankind. The premise itself is the unresolved issue. Until the premise has been tested and supported by real world data, studies of the possible human effects of climate change are pointless and a waste of resources. Research on a predicated hypothesis is based on an illusion.