Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Data Quality – Surface Temperatures: Writing in Energy Matters, Roger Andrews has begun an examination of efforts to adjust measurements to a preconceived idea. His first part deals with land-based, surface-air temperatures (SAT). Ideally, these are taken roughly at 5 feet +/- one foot (1.5 to 2 meters) above the ground, in the shade, over a grassy or dirt field, 100 feet from pavement, buildings, trees, etc. A Stevenson screen is the standard to provide shade and protection from precipitation. As research by Anthony Watts has shown, relatively few official measuring devises in the US meet these criteria, which have not been moved.
Adding to the difficulty of maintaining a database of proper measurements, NOAA (National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in Ashville, NC, (formerly the National Climatic Data Center), which is entrusted to keep records, has frequently changed them. Thus, their database and the databases of other entities using them, such as NASA-GISS and Climatic Research Unit (CRU), are questionable.
Andrews explains that he has spent about 20 years reconstructing and analyzing data the SAT data, He has addressed a number of individual examples where it appears that data were adjusted to match theory. In this systematic effort, he focuses on the SAT from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS, on Broadway). He compares the old GISS with the new GISS temperatures globally, and by northern and southern hemisphere. Subtracting the old from the new produces a warming trend – indicating a bias. He found that a large part of this trend came from elaborate procedures under the guise of homogeneity adjustments. Even the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) dataset was infected, as Andrews shows for South America where cooling areas became warming areas.
The conclusions by Andrews give pause for any value of the use of the NOAA, NASA, CRU datasets in establishing climate models for predictions / forecasts. Andrews writes:
“The conclusions? In previous posts and comments I had said that adjustments had added only about 0.2°C of spurious warming to the global SAT record over the last 100 years or so – not enough to make much difference. But after further review it now appears that they may have added as much as 0.4°C.”
“…and that global surface air temperatures have increased by only about 0.7°C over this period, not by the ~1.1°C shown by the published SAT series.”
None of this is new. Joe D’Aleo has been sounding the alarm for years, alienating collogues at the American Meteorological Society, where he is a fellow. However, it is important to have different people familiar with high standards of data quality to review the work of others. No doubt some will challenge this analysis stating that Andrews is not a climate scientist. That approach is used against Steve McIntyre who is a consultant for mining companies. McIntyre along with Ross McKitrick exposed Mr. Mann’s faulty “hockey-stick.”
Andrews has a response to such criticisms.
“In my previous incarnation as a consultant in the mining industry I spent a lot of time verifying assay data bases (copper, gold, silver, lead, zinc etc.), and in doing so I learned all about the sanctity of raw data. You don’t adjust your raw data unless you have ironclad reasons for doing so. You either verify them or throw them out. Too many widows and orphans have been ruined by unscrupulous miners peddling bogus assays to do it any other way. The stock exchange regulators who ride herd on the public announcements of mining companies are very insistent about this, and woe betide anyone who tries to put one across on them and gets caught doing it.” [Boldface added.]
There are no penalties for manipulating climate data; perhaps there should be. From the attitudes expressed by Andrews and McIntyre, mining consultants are very scrupulous about details – data. Since many are concerned about climate change, it should be so for all climate scientists. If those who build mathematical models describing climate use poor data, then the models will describe the climate poorly.
That said, Andrews tests whether the warming trend is result of the urban heat island effect (UHI). He concludes it is not. Though, in part it may be due to a shift in location of instruments to airports, as Fred Singer has suggested. Andrews writes further:
“There is no grand conspiracy to foist non-existent global warming onto a gullible public. The reason some think there is one is that the data adjusters are under intense pressure to come up with the “right” results, which inevitably makes their findings somewhat less than objective. Global warming, AKA climate change, is a major growth industry that already gives employment to hundreds of thousands of people, including some very influential ones, and the bandwagon has to be kept rolling.”
No doubt, the bandwagon effect is highly influential among national scientific organizations. But, if carbon dioxide emissions are causing dangerous global warming / climate change, we need credible data. It appears that by their data manipulations, NOAA and NASA-GISS are undermining their own credibility.
The difference of 0.4°C between the old and new data that Andrews calculates is significant when one considers that NOAA, NASA, etc. recently proclaimed that 2016 was the hottest year ever – by 0.04°C.
Amazingly, in addition to its National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA has “National Centers for Environmental Prediction” which proclaims its core values are Personal Accountability, Scientific Integrity, Honesty, and Trust. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/director/strategic_plan/strategic_plan.pdf
Quote of the Week. “In my view, there is only one hope for humankind to emerge from what Carl Sagan called ‘the demon-haunted world’ of our past. That hope is science.
“But as Alston Chase put it, ‘when the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power.’” – Michael Crichton
Number of the Week: 89–535 trillion USD this century.
EPA Endangerment Finding: The group known as Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council has submitted a second supplement to its petition to the EPA to reconsider its 2009 finding that greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, endanger human health and welfare. The supplement is based on a June paper by Wallace, D’Aleo, and Idso, questioning the SAT, dataset issued by NASA and NOAA. The work was reported in the July 8 TWTW. Although the work of Wallace, et al. is not linked to the work of Andrews discussed above, the work of Andrews supports the findings Wallace, et al. The new supplement uses the term Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) rather than Surface-Air Temperatures (SAT) used by Andrews. The questioned datasets are the same.
The datasets and the models relied upon by the EPA in its finding are faulty. Thus, the finding is based faulty logic, and should be reviewed. It appears that the administrator of the EPA, Scott Pruitt, is leaning towards a Red Team / Blue Team review of the issue. There are many differing views of such a review, with the climate establishment declaring it is not needed.
However, increasingly, papers and reports such as the one by Andrews are illustrating severe questions about the rigor of the work supporting EPA’s finding, and findings by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its follower, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). It will be interesting to see which national scientific organizations will continue to ignore objections to work of the IPCC and USGCRP.
SEPP filed a similar petition to the EPA with the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), citing different rational. Objections to the petitions will be discussed in an upcoming TWTW. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Prevailing Myths of Wind: Writing in Energy Collective, with a link to informative slides, Gail Tyerberg addresses some of the myths concerning wind and solar power. One of the most prevalent myths is low cost. Even at low levels of penetration (low capacity), wind and solar are parasitic, they sap resources from reliable providers of electricity in the form of hidden subsidies that grid operators, utilities, and backup electricity generators must provide.
The grid is an energized system, maintained by grid operators who control the supply of electricity to meet demand. Even hydro power, which is now called an alternative source, is controlled. But, the grid operators and electricity producers cannot control solar and wind, particularly wind, which can be too much or too little with little notice. Tyerberg gives an overview of the problems erratic producers cause. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Political Games – Where’s the Quid? When former Virginia governor Bob McDonald was indicted with federal corruption charges almost immediately after his term in office, some observes asked where’s the crime? Where is the evidence a crime was committed? What McDonald appeared to do is similar to actions by past Virginia governors of both parties. In 2016, in a severe rebuke, the Supreme Court voted 8 to 0 to vacate McDonald’s conviction and in September the Justice Department dismissed the charges. The Court found that McDonald’s actions may have been distasteful, there was no “quid pro quo”, no this for that; therefore, no evidence of a crime.
The popular press is focused on possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian President Putin. But, the press fails to ask where’s the quid pro quo?
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, in 2016, over 35% of the government’s budget came from oil and gas. This is down from over 50% in 2014. The fall in oil prices and sale of assets have hurt the Russian government. Still, Europe remains that largest consumer of imported Russian natural gas and is a vital source of hard currency.
What has Mr. Trump done to help the Russian government? He pulled the US out of the Paris agreement, which would prevent developing countries from exploiting their enormous resources in coal to create much needed electricity. The agreement would have enhanced the value of Russian oil and gas exports.
In Poland, Trump announced that the US will become a powerhouse in oil and gas, exporting to markets needing these fuels. The threat of American exports of gas to Europe would place a ceiling on the value of Russian exports to Europe. If there was “a deal” with the Russia, Putin came up short. See links under Change in US Administrations and http://old.minfin.ru/en/statistics/fedbud/?id_38=25610.
Changing Sea Levels: Measured sea levels vary according to prevailing winds and other weather conditions such as an El Niño. According to the latest NASA measurements, the acceleration in sea level rise has stopped and levels appear to be falling. Another illustration of the folly of using short-term measurements to project long-term trends. See links under Changing Seas
EPA Listening Tour: The EPA is holding hearings on its proposed volume requirements for the Renewable Fuel Standard. It is accepting written statements as well. The contact is firstname.lastname@example.org.
The entire program is a folly created at a time when Washington became convinced that the nation would run out of oil. Such a folly should be repealed just like the “Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978” about 30 years before. The act mandated “that no new baseload electric powerplant may be constructed or operated without the capability to use coal or another alternate fuel as a primary energy source.” See link under The Political Games Continue and Subsidies and Mandates Forever.
Latest Fad: The UK has followed France in banning the sale of automobiles powered by fossil fuels (petroleum and diesel) by 2040. It will be interesting to see how this one works out. The fad of promoting autos powered by diesel turned ugly. The devises measuring nitrous oxides could be defeated or overridden, resulting acidic emissions. The major European manufacturers are admitting fault. Reader Malcolm Ross suggests that the well-known suppler of components, Bosch, is probably involved as well.
Several years ago, executives of US oil and automobile companies met to work out a solution to provide high-mileage diesels the public. However, no fuel solution could be designed to meet the EPA standards on nitrous oxides, without the addition of urea. Apparently, this solution was unacceptable due to a marketing image. Unfortunately, TWTW has been unable to locate any reports confirming these meetings and the results. One can speculate that, perhaps, there were no records kept in fear of someone in Washington proclaiming a collusion to prevent urea in fuels. See links under Questioning European Green and Energy Issues – Non-US
Additions and Corrections: Several readers have written that they prefer the term “ocean carbonization” to “ocean acidification” because it more accurately reflects what may happen with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. TWTW will endeavor to use that term.
Reader Dick Hoese commented that the accepted range of the “Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab is the Atlantic Ocean and it does not include the Pacific. He is correct, but personal observation and reports by others demonstrate that Blue Crabs are caught in the Sea of Cortez between Baha and mainland Mexico.
Number of the Week: 89–535 trillion USD this century. A group headed by James Hansen, recently head of NASA-GISS and now of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute wrote that: “Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion this century.” It is less costly to limit the use of fossil fuels to keep the global temperature from exceeding the 1880-1920 mean.
The abstract also states: “We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today.”
As stated in the June 17 TWTW, Euan Mearns calculated that the period between the beginning of the fall of temperatures at the end of the Eemian interglacial to any appreciable change in CO2 is over 14,000 years. Hansen, et al. make no mention of this in the Vostok ice cores. The disparity indicates that CO2 does not control the earth’s temperatures as Hansen and his groups have advocated. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
VOTING FOR THE COVERTED SEPP TROPHY ENDS IN JULY, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The five past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz and John Holdren are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Solar Activity Linked to Periodic Climate Change During Holocene,
By Mohammed Allan et al., Climate of the Past, Via GWPF, July 28, 2017
Clouds and Global Warming…
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 28, 2017
PAGES 2017: Arctic Lake Sediments
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, July 22, 2017
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Adjusting Measurements to Match the Models – Part 1: Surface Air Temperatures
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 27, 2017
Michael Crichton: Why Politicized Science Is Dangerous
By Staff Writers, GWPF, July 18, 2017
[SEPP Comment: A section of a scientific theory that was very popular – and wrong.]
Official Announcement Of New Supplemental Petition To EPA
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 24, 2017
Global Science Report: Health Effects of Global Warming
By Craig Idso and Patrick Michaels, CATO, July 27, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Modern humans evolved in the tropics during periods of climate change. The finding that humans naturally adapt better to warmth rather than cold should not be surprising.]
Prof Peter Ridd: the Great Barrier Reef recovers, our science institutions are failing us, science needs to be checked
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 28, 2017
Link to Audio: Peter Ridd, 2GB, July 27, 2017
Why the Fossil Fuel Revolution Is Good for Both Humans and the Environment
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, July 28, 2017
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate bargain, going cheap! Pay now, save $Trillions, stop Storms, Droughts, Bad Stuff. Ends today!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 22, 2017
Press Release: Removing CO2 from the air required to safeguard children’s future
By Staff Writers, European Geosciences Union, July 18, 2017
“Dedicated to the pursuit of excellence in the Earth, planetary, and space sciences for the benefit of humanity”
Link to article: Young people’s burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions
By James Hansen, et al, Earth System Dynamics, July 18, 2017
Obama’s Science Czar Rails Against Using ‘Red Teams’ To Debate Global Warming
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 25, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: No doubt Mr. Holdren would be opposed to a debate on why “the population bomb” failed to explode, after gaining fame by promoting fear of it.]
The Climate Crisis Is Here. Now.
The oceans and the sun don’t care how cleverly you can turn a phrase.
By Charles Pierce, Esquire, July 24, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
“Dead cows. We’re all dead cows walking.”
Trump’s EPA enlists controversial think tank to find climate ‘experts’ to argue with mainstream scientists
By Andrew Freedman, Mashable, July 25, 2017 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: The NIPCC reports contained writings of many climate experts.]
Unmasking the Climate-Change Deniers
By Benjamin Franta, Project Syndicate, July 25, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Ignores the fact that the US has spent over $40 billion since the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, with meager results on empirically identifying the causes.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Another paper confirms “the pause” in global warming – cites issues with methods of obtaining average temperature
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 24, 2017
Link to paper: Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
By Chunlüe Zhou & Kaicun Wang, Scientific Reports, August 17, 2016
CO2 emission, CO2 absorption
By Alan Siddons, ICECAP, July 26, 2017
Drier Winters To Lead To Record Rainfall!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2017
Obama’s Paris climate scheme revelation
Emails show ‘disturbing contempt’ for the Senate’s treaty role
By Christopher C. Horner, Washington Times, July 25, 2017
India diverts Rs 56,700 crore from the fight against climate change to Goods and Service Tax regime [About $10 Billion GWPF est. May be $14 billion.]
Unused money in the National Clean Energy and Environment Fund has been diverted to compensate states for loss of tax revenue.
By Kumar Sambhav Shrivastava, Scroll. In (India), July 24, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
“’Basically, the fund is now dead wood,’ a senior finance ministry official said.”
Coal to stay king in India as power mainstay, says Niti report
Coal would remain at the centre stage in India with its share in energy mix not declining below 46% in 2047, claimed a report titled ‘Energising India’, jointly prepared by the NITI Aayog and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
By Staff Writers, Financial Express, Dew Delhi, July 26, 2017
“It pointed that although public attention focuses heavily on green energy sources, almost 86 % of the reduction in emissions in low-carbon scenario comes from action on the demand side to improve energy efficiency and only 14% from the supply side.”
Stopping the ‘National Climate Scare’
Guest opinion by Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, WUWT, July 26, 2017
Red team and blue team may be a good next step to fix the U.S. climatology
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, July 26, 2017
Trump administration lining up climate change ‘red team’
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, July 24, 2017
Trump Launched An Energy Revolution While Everyone Was Obsessing On His Tweets
Editorial, IBD, No Date
By Tim Boersma and Corey Johnson, Energy Intelligence, July 2017
“As we made clear at the time, there was no reason to believe that the US was willing, or able, to use natural resources as a political tool. But with the Trump administration now adopting the policy of American ‘energy dominance’ on the global stage — a signal that energy, in this government’s eyes, is not just a commodity to be traded by private actors but an instrument of foreign and trade policy — there is good reason to revisit this earlier assumption, despite reassuring statements to the contrary.”
UK bypasses Donald Trump to discuss climate change with US city mayors directly
Claire Perry, the Climate Change Minister, says British Government is now speaking to ‘other players’ in US about how to fight global warming.
By Ian Johnston, Independent, UK, July 25, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Burning the target
By Olaf Storbeck, Breaking News, July 18, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
“Germany is at risk of tacitly joining Donald Trump in turning its back on the Paris climate change deal. Two of the country’s regional governments have decided to put preserving jobs in coal mines and power plants ahead of cutting carbon emissions.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Video: Roger Pielke Jr. On ‘Climate Politics as Manichean Paranoia!
By Staff Writers, GWPF, July 20, 2017
The Laws of Averages: Part 3, The Average Average
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 24, 2017
The great global warming hustle
By Charles Campbell, Baltimore Sun, July 18, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Struggling to Model Antarctic Surface Air Temperature Trends
Smith, K.L. and Polvani, L.M. 2017. Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics 48: 2653-2670. July 27, 2017
“As for the significance of these findings, Smith and Polyani say they (4) ‘offer new, compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.‘ And in addition, they write that (5) the CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) temperature for each Antarctic region ‘shows a persistent cold bias of a couple of degrees. ‘”
An Arctic Copepod is Unaffected by Ocean Acidification
Bailey, A., Thor, P., Browman, H.I., Fields, D.M., Runge, J., Vermont, A., Bjelland, R., Thompson, C., Shema, S., Durif, C.M.F. and Hop, H. 2017. Early life stages of the Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis are unaffected by increased seawater pCO2. ICES Journal of Marine Science 74: 996-1004. July 26, 2017
Modelling Periods of Significant Saharan Heat Low: How Goes It?
Dixon, R.D., Daloz, A.S. and Vimont, D.J. 2017. Saharan Heat Low Biases in CMIP5 Models. Journal of Climate 30: 2867-2884. July 25, 2017
Climate Models Out Of Whack …Also Warming From Arctic Soot Underestimated
Climate models underestimate soot amounts and their warming effect in the Arctic
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translation/editing of German text by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, July 25, 2017
Met Office “Unprecedented” Rainfall Nonsense
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 26, 2017
Link to paper: High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate
By Vikki Thompson, et al. Nature Communications, July 24, 2017
“If the Met Office had looked at the actual data, and not their computer simulations, they would have concluded that UK weather is not getting more extreme.”
Can we really afford this? Model failures with ocean cycles
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translation/editing of German text by P Gosselin), July 22, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Many models cannot hindcast changes in the Pacific Basin, namely the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]
Germany Experts Revise (Junk) Model Projections For Summer Precipitation After String Of Failures
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 28, 2017
Measurement Issues — Surface
4 New Papers: Modern Warming Is Substantially Artificial, Traced To Urbanization, Bias
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 24, 2017
After slowly drying up over 50 years, the monsoon is making a comeback in north India
By Devjyot Ghoshal, Quartz, July 26, 2017 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Link to Press Release: Study: Indian monsoons have strengthened over past 15 years
A 50-year dry spell has reversed, with more rain to come.
By Jennifer Chu |, MIT News, July 24, 2017
Link to paper: A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002
By Qinjian Jin & Chien Wang, Nature Climate Change, July 24, 2017
From Press Release: “’The Indian monsoon is considered a textbook, clearly defined phenomenon, and we think we know a lot about it, but we don’t,’ says Senior Research Scientist Chien Wang.”
“But Wang and others have observed that in recent years, India has experienced a reduction in low clouds, perhaps in response to an increase in anthropogenic aerosols such as black carbon or soot, which can simultaneously absorb and heat the surrounding air, and prevent clouds from forming.”
Dust deposits give new insights into the history of the Sahara
Millennial-scale fluctuations in Saharan dust supply across the decline of the African Humid Period
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, July 19, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Link to paper: Millennial-scale fluctuations in Saharan dust supply across the decline of the African Humid Period
By Christoph Zielhofer, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Sep 1, 2017
Sea levels are falling
By Robert, Ice Age Now, July 25, 2017 [H/t William Readdy]
Link to NASA: Sea Level, NASA Global Climate Change, March 2017
[SEPP Comment: The second chart in the NASA link shows an average sea rise of 6 inches (13 cm) per century. Will the next round of NASA and NOAA briefers declare that sea levels are falling, leaving many deep-water ports high and dry?]
Sea Level Rise At German Coast Slowing, Contradicting German DWD Weather Service Hysteria
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 23, 2017
Sea Level Rise per Jevrejeva
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2017
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Manmade aerosols identified as driver in shifting global rainfall patterns
By Staff Writers, Miami FL (SPX), Jul 21, 2017
Link to paper: Hemispheric climate shifts driven byanthropogenic aerosol–cloud interactions
By Eui-Seok Chung and Brian J. Soden, Nature Geoscience, July 17, 2017
In the fight between Rick Perry and climate scientists — He’s winning
By Ross McKitrick, The Hill, July 27, 2017
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Living in an Orwellian Era…
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 25, 2017
100 companies to blame for 71% of carbon “pollution”, but world’s worst corporates are Big Government
By Jo Nova, Her Blog July 27, 2017
Link to report: The Carbon Majors Database: CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017
By Paul Griffin, CDP (Meaning of initials not clear) and Climate Accountability Institute, UK, July 2017
“Driving Sustainable Economics”
Ideology Wars: How corporates and neoliberals conned environmentalists into “fighting as individuals”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 27, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Exposing false claims of “unfairness”?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
NOAA : Third Fakest June On Record
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, July 28, 2017
Study: Utilities knew about climate change risks decades ago
By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 25, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the implication in the article, recognizing the existence of a speculative hypothesis is not knowledge that the hypothesis is correct.]
Global Warming Blamed For EU Wildfires
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Exposing another myth.]
Forget geoengineering planet, lets drug and modify humans instead — Shrink your kids
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 28, 2017
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Enforcing The 97% Consensus Has ‘Generated Further Doubt’ About Global Warming
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 24, 2017
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Climate Science Comes Up Short
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, July 28, 2017
“People unwilling to act on the climate-crisis narrative should be assisted with drugs that improve and promote conformity, according to eminent bio-ethicist Professor Matthew Liao, of New York University, who also wants to see parents dosing their children with hormones and diets to keep them shorter and less of a burden on the planet.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children or Parents
‘No more royal babies’ Kate and William told NOT to have any more children
Prince William and Kate have been urged not to have a third child in an open letter calling for them to “lead by example” and stop at two children.
By Sofia Petkar, Express, UK, July 28, 2017
Questioning European Green
Flexibility and Productivity of the UK Electricity System
By John Constable, GWPF, July 27, 2017
Press Release: Plan launched to bring smart energy technology into homes and businesses
By Staff Writers, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, Ofgem, and The Rt Hon Greg Clark MP, July 24, 2017
Link to policy paper: Upgrading our energy system: smart systems and flexibility plan
By Staff Writers, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and Ofgem, July 24, 2017
The UK Climate Change Act – nine years on and still no plan
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 24, 2017
“The Climate Change Act, which committed the UK to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2050, was passed by a near-unanimous vote of Parliament in 2008. One would have thought that progress would by now have been made towards developing detailed plans to achieve this ambitious goal, but it hasn’t.”
So how on earth are we going to power nine million electric cars, asks ALEX BRUMMER
By Alex Brummer, Daily Mail, UK, July 27, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
How Much Electricity Will Electric Cars Use?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2017
Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act
Summary of H.R. 5146 – Passed and signed
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Do Carbon Taxes Improve Economic Welfare When Emissions Are Already Regulated?
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, July 25, 2017
Link to discussion paper: Emission Taxes and Damage Thresholds in the Presence of Pre-Existing Regulations.
By Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, 2017
Dem senators pitch carbon tax to conservatives
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, July 26, 2017
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Venezuela’s Perfect Storm for Oil May Be About to Break
By Liam Denning, Bloomberg, July 28, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Wind promoters have used the Venezuelan government policy of subsidizing domestic petroleum use as justification for subsidizing wind in the US.]
Court rejects 2015 EPA biofuels waivers
By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 28, 2017
Tesla battery, subsidy and sustainability fantasies
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, July 23, 2017
Congress Is Still Fighting Over Energy-Efficient Light Bulbs
By Ari Natter, Bloomberg, July 27, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Missing from the story is that the “energy efficient” compact fluorescent bulbs were an expensive disaster. Only later, after many years of research, did LEDs with white light appear, at reasonable costs.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA announces plan to ‘restore’ Superfund cleanup program
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, July 25, 2017
Former EPA Official Claims Obama Holdovers Stealthily Pushing An ‘Alarmist’ Climate Study Right Under Trump’s Nose
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 27, 2017
Diesel and petrol car ban: Plan for 2040 unravels as 10 new power stations needed to cope with electric revolution
By Steven Swinford, Telegraph, UK, july 26, 2017
Air Pollution Is Just A Smokescreen (Excuse The Pun!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2017
I’m A (Not So) Little Teapot – The Surprising Influence Of China’s Independent Refineries
By Cheryl Chia, RBN Energy, July 25, 2017
Petronas Deals Fresh Blow as World Exits Canada’s Energy Patch
By Josh Wingrove and Kevin Orland, Bloomberg, July 26, 2017
Energy Issues – Australia
Senator Claims Green Energy Is Causing A ‘National Emergency’ [Australia]
By Andrew Follett, Daily Caller, July 25, 2017
Australia’s LNG Own Goal
By David Fickling, Bloomberg, July 24, 2017
Energy Issues — US
America’s Biggest Oil Port Wants to Be a Two-Way Street
By Hailey Waller and Sheela Tobben, Bloomberg, July 25, 2017
[SEPP Comment: The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is the only US Gulf Coast Port capable of handling supertankers. It may go from import only, to export/import.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Say, Whatever Happened to ‘We Can’t Drill Our Way to Lower Prices’?
Editorial, IBD, No Date
Oilfield Rush to High-Tech Helps Smaller Companies Thrive
By David Wethe, Bloomberg, July 26, 2017
“’It’s not the big guys who drive new technologies,’ Robart said in an interview. ‘Big guys are great at incremental innovation and technology, but not so good at totally new technology.’”
Credit Suisse Predicts Sub-$60 Oil Until 2020
By Zainab Calcuttawala, Oil Price, July 25, 2017
Knockin’ On New York’s Door – An Update Of Natural Gas Pipelines Into New York City
By: Sheetal Nasta, RBN Energy, July 26, 2017
Return of King Coal?
U.S. coal exports up in boost to Trump energy agenda
U.S. coal exports have grown as companies emerge from bankruptcies and as the Trump administration dismantles regulations.
By Han Huang, Reuters, Via GWPF, July 28, 2017
U.S. Coal Finds Footing In European Markets
By Staff Writers, Oil Price.com, July 22, 2017
Researchers Have Been Underestimating the Cost of Wind and Solar
By Gail Tverberg, Energy Collective, July 24, 2017
Slide Presentation: The Problem of Properly Evaluating Intermittent Renewable Resources
By Gail Tverberg, BioPhysical Economics, June 20, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Exposing what many wind promoters / researchers avoid including: measures to avoid damaging the electrical system require subsidies from other providers.
Elon Musk: Running U.S. on Solar Requires 100 Square Miles of Panels
He’d also need just one square mile of batteries.
By Matthew Humphries, Entrepreneur, July 18, 2017 [H/t Energy Matters]
Here’s Elon Musk’s Plan to Power the U.S. on Solar Energy
“The sun is a giant fusion reactor in the sky.”
By Nick Lucchesi, Inverse, July 16, 2017
Link to video of speech to National Governors Association Summer Meeting
[SEPP Comment: Article has typical lack of attention to crucial details: states that “Currently, about 10 percent of energy in the U.S. is renewable.” But, fails to state that about 0.6% is from solar. The bulk is hydro and biomass burning.]
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: July 24, 2017
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, July 24, 2017
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
China’s green car sales hit speed bump as Beijing cuts subsidies
By Daniel Ren, South China Morning Post, July 27, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
EV Subsidies vs. Results: Reality Check in Norway
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, July 27, 2017
New Study: Electric Vehicle Use Does Not Reduce CO2 Emissions
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 27, 2017
German carmakers colluded on diesel controls, technology for decades: report
By Elisabeth Behrmann, Chicago Tribune, July 24, 2017
California Challenges President Trump With Cap-and-Trade Law: ‘We Do Not Have to Wait for Washington’
By Katy Steinmetz, Time, July 25, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: LOL Leader of Lemmings?]
California wholesale electricity prices are higher at the beginning and end of the day
By Staff Writers, EIA, July 24, 2017 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
[SEPP Comment: The California Duck is getting a fatter belly.]
California is Handling Climate Change All Wrong
By Bjorn Lomborg, LA Times, July 20, 2017
Health, Energy, and Climate
Enemies of Humanity
By Steven Lyazi, Townhall, July 26, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Giving an example of anti-science, neo-colonialism.]
Why the Greens Lost, and Trump Won
It’s tough to prevail with an agenda that makes people poorer, more subservient and more miserable. That disconnect is one part of how this awful guy made it to the White House.
By Joel Kotkin, Daily Beast, July 22, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Climate Change Hypocrisy Goes Mainstream
Editorial, IBD, No Date
Other Scientific News
Two Drops Of Death: Dimethylmercury
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, June 6, 2016
How Can Poisonous Heavy Metals Be Perfectly Safe?
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, July 19, 2017
Other News that May Be of Interest
Shark Week: Meet the seagrass protectors
Sharks defend seagrasses from overgrazing by dugongs, sea turtles, other species
By Cheryl Dybas, NSF, July 26, 2017
[SEPP Comment: No doubt sharks do so conscientiously.]
The new astrology
By fetishising mathematical models, economists turned economics into a highly paid pseudoscience
By Alan Jay Levinovitz, Aeon, April 4, 2016
Tunnel visions: China bets big on subways as cities expand
By Dan Martin, Phys.org, July 21, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujitat]
[SEPP Comment: Will wind promoters demand the system run on wind power?]
Renowned climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck leaving University of Arizona
By Tony Davis Arizona Daily Star, June 17, 2017
[SEPP Comment: The benefits of heavy government funding.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Predatory Journals Hit By ‘Star Wars’ Sting
By Neuroskeptic, WUWT, July 22, 2017
Link to post naming journals that rejected or suggested modifications to the fake article.
Today’s Top Fraud From The New York Times
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, July 28, 2017
[SEPP Comment: What do the data say, not what do reporters say?]
(Don’t) Feed The Man Meat!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, July 22, 2017
“A report by Chatham House, ‘Changing Climate, Changing Diets: Pathways to Lower Meat Consumption,’ released in late November, identifies the world’s appetite for meat as a major driver of climate change and concludes that a worldwide shift to healthier, more plant-based diets could bring about a 25% reduction in the gap between current global emissions plans and what is needed to prevent ‘dangerous’ climate change.
“’As governments look for strategies to close the Paris emissions gap quickly and cheaply, dietary change should be high on the list,’ says Laura Wellesley, an author of the seminal report.” Newsweek, 8 Dec 2015
1. Al Gore’s Climate Sequel Misses a Few Inconvenient Facts
Eleven years after his first climate-change film, he’s still trying to scare you into saving the world.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, July 27, 2017
SUMMARY: Lomborg believes CO2 is a major cause of global warming / climate change. He writes:
“The former vice president has a poor record. Over the past 11 years Mr. Gore has suggested that global warming had caused an increase in tornadoes, that Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier would disappear by 2016, and that the Arctic summers could be ice-free as soon as 2014. These predictions and claims all proved wrong.
“’An Inconvenient Truth’ promoted the frightening narrative that higher temperatures mean more extreme weather, especially hurricanes. The movie poster showed a hurricane emerging from a smokestack. Mr. Gore appears to double down on this by declaring in the new film’s trailer: “Storms get stronger and more destructive. Watch the water splash off the city. This is global warming.”
“This is misleading. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—in its Fifth Assessment Report, published in 2013—found “low confidence” of increased hurricane activity to date because of global warming. Storms are causing more damage, but primarily because more wealthy people choose to live on the coast, not because of rising temperatures.
“Even if tropical storms strengthen by 2100, their relative cost likely will decrease. In a 2012 article for the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers showed that hurricane damage now costs 0.04% of global gross domestic product. If climate change makes hurricanes stronger, absolute costs will double by 2100. But the world will also be much wealthier and less vulnerable, so the total damage is estimated at only 0.02% of global GDP.
“In the trailer, Mr. Gore addresses ‘the most criticized scene’ of his previous documentary, which suggested that “the combination of sea-level rise and storm surge would flood the 9/11 Memorial site.” Then viewers are shown footage of Manhattan taking on water in 2012 after superstorm Sandy, apparently vindicating Mr. Gore’s claims. Never mind that what he actually predicted was flooding caused by melting ice in Greenland.
“More important is that Mr. Gore’s prescriptions—for New York and the globe—won’t work. He claims the answer to warming lies in agreements to cut carbon that would cost trillions of dollars. That would not have stopped Sandy. What New York really needs is better infrastructure: sea walls, storm doors for the subway, porous pavement. These fixes could cost around $100 million a year, a bargain compared with the price of international climate treaties.”
After describing the Kyoto Protocol, Lomborg writers:
“By 2030 the Paris climate accord will cost the world up to $2 trillion a year, mostly in lost economic growth, according to the best peer-reviewed energy-economic models. It will remain that expensive for the rest of the century. This would make it the most expensive treaty in history.
“And for what? Just ahead of the Paris conference, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change estimated that if every country fulfills every promised Paris carbon cut between 2016 and 2030, carbon dioxide emissions will drop by only 60 gigatons over that time frame. To keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, the world must reduce such emissions nearly 6,000 gigatons over this century, according to the IPCC. A “successful” Paris agreement wouldn’t even come close to solving the problem.
“Mr. Gore argues that the Paris approach pushes nations and businesses toward green energy. Perhaps, but the global economy is far from ready to replace fossil fuels with solar and wind. The International Energy Agency, in its 2016 World Energy Outlook, found that 0.6% of the world’s energy is supplied by solar and wind. Even with the Paris accord fully implemented, that number would rise only to 3% in a quarter-century.
“In part because of activists like Mr. Gore, the world remains focused on subsidizing inefficient, unreliable technology, rather than investing in research to push down the price of green energy. Real progress in Paris could be found on the sidelines, where philanthropist Bill Gates and others, including political leaders, agreed to increase spending on research and development. This is an important start, but much more funding is needed.
“Mr. Gore declares in his new film that ‘it is right to save humanity.’ No argument here. But is using scare tactics really the best way to go about it?”
2. Shell Prepares for ‘Lower Forever’ Oil Prices
CEO touts cost-cutting, strategy shift for $1.9 billion profit
By Sarah Kent, WSJ, July 27, 2017
“We are getting fit for the 40s,” Mr. van Beurden said, referring to a world in which oil prices are below $50 a barrel.
The reporter discusses the realization by Shell that high oil prices are not returning soon, baring a war. She writers:
“Shell Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said the company has a mind-set that oil prices would remain ‘lower forever ‘—a riff on the ‘lower for longer ‘ mantra the industry adopted for a price slump that has proved unexpectedly lasting.
“‘We have to have projects that are resilient in a world where oil has peaked, ‘ Mr. van Beurden told reporters on a conference call discussing the company’s second-quarter financial results. ‘When it will happen we don’t know, but that it will happen we are certain. ‘
“The views of the British-Dutch oil company reflect the transition under way in a global energy industry grappling with the twin forces of an oil-supply glut and a looming consumer shift away from petroleum. These trends are even more pronounced for oil companies in Europe, where local and national governments are trying to phase out vehicles with internal-combustion engines, encourage electric automobiles and reduce overall carbon emissions.
“Experts differ on the timing of peak oil demand. In its most-guarded scenario, Shell sees oil peaking within the coming decade. The International Energy Agency says the timing will be more like 2040. The advent of declining demand—after decades of unrelenting growth—would likely erode the value of oil and the companies that produce it.
“On the other hand, U.S. energy giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. have said peak oil demand is still far off. And even when oil consumption eventually stops growing, Shell isn’t expecting it to drop off a cliff.
“ ‘It doesn’t mean it’s game over straight away, ‘ Mr. van Beurden said. ‘There will be a continued need for investment in oil projects. ‘
“Mr. van Beurden’s comments are broadly in line with Shell’s overall strategy of moving toward producing fuel for electricity, such as natural gas and even renewables, and focusing on keeping costs low. The company now produces more gas than oil. It is also building a massive wind farm off the Dutch coast and envisions spending as much as $1 billion a year on developing new energy sources such as renewables by the end of the decade.”
The article continues along these lines.