Facts, beliefs, and identity: The seeds of science skepticism

From the SOCIETY FOR PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

San Antonio, Texas – Psychological researchers are working to understand the cognitive processes, ideologies, cultural demands, and conspiracy beliefs that cause smart people to resist scientific messages. Using surveys, experiments, observational studies and meta-analyses, the researchers capture an emerging theoretical frontier with an eye to making science communication efforts smarter and more effective.

Protecting “Pet Beliefs”

One striking feature of people who hold science-skeptic views is that they are often just as educated, and just as interested in science, as the rest of us. The problem is not about whether they are exposed to information, but about whether the information is processed in a balanced way. It manifests itself in what Matthew Hornsey (University of Queensland) describes as “thinking like a lawyer,” in that people cherry-pick which pieces of information to pay attention to “in order to reach conclusions that they want to be true.”

“We find that people will take a flight from facts to protect all kinds of belief including their religious belief, their political beliefs, and even simple personal beliefs such as whether they are good at choosing a web browser,” says Troy Campbell (University of Oregon).

Dan Kahan (Yale University) agrees, finding in their research that “the deposition is to construe evidence in identity-congruent rather than truth-congruent ways, a state of disorientation that is pretty symmetric across the political spectrum.”

Changing Minds

Merely talking about “evidence” or “data” does not typically change a skeptic’s mind about a particular topic, whether it is climate change, genetically modified organisms, or vaccines. People use science and fact to support their particular opinion and will downplay what they don’t agree with.

“Where there is conflict over societal risks – from climate change to nuclear-power safety to impacts of gun control laws, both sides invoke the mantel of science,” says Kahan.

“In our research, we find that people treat facts as relevant more when the facts tend to support their opinions,” says Campbell. “When the facts are against their opinions, they don’t necessarily deny the facts, but they say the facts are less relevant.”

One approach to deal with science skepticism is to identify the underlying motivations or “attitude roots,” as Hornsey describes in his recent research (American Psychologist, in Press).

“Rather than taking on people’s surface attitudes directly, tailor the message so that it aligns with their motivation. So with climate skeptics, for example, you find out what they can agree on and then frame climate messages to align with these.”

Kahan’s recent research shows that a person’s level of scientific curiosity could help promote more open-minded engagement. They found that people who enjoyed surprising findings, even if it was counter to their political beefs, were more open to the new information. As Kahan and his colleagues note, their findings are preliminary and require more research.

Hornsey, Campbell, Kahan and Robbie Sutton (University of Kent) will present their research at the symposium, Rejection of Science: Fresh Perspectives on the Anti-Enlightenment Movement. The talks take place on Saturday, January 21, 2017, at the SPSP Annual Convention. More than 3000 scientists are in attendance at the conference in San Antonio from January 19-21.

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January 21, 2017 6:28 pm

My pet peeve is articles not linked to the source.
ScienceMag.com

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Roy Denio
January 21, 2017 6:40 pm

Jeez, you’re right! A science article without citation is just an editorial…

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Pop Piasa
January 21, 2017 6:43 pm

Particularly precarious to deal with ideological issues as science, anyway.

John Robertson
Reply to  Roy Denio
January 23, 2017 1:26 pm

Bottom of the “News Flash”..
Media Contact
Annie Drinkard.
Is this a real person?
If so what a snychronisity of Person and position.
Is truth stranger than fiction here? Or is this whole article a put on?

Alan
January 21, 2017 6:44 pm

I think the authors of this study need to take a long hard look in the mirror!!!’
What a load on nonsense this is!!!!
Who are they referring to? It is being cast that they are trying to find out why “sceptics” are not believing the science!!!! Poppycock….the question is why do the believers accept nonsense from their high priests hij is presented as science but has reached conclusions without applying the scientific method correctly.
They touch on the kernel of the matter, regarding thinking like a lawyer!
In Australia most of our politicians are lawyers. My objection to them is their lack of technical knowledge and their training as an advocate for a cause, which requires cherry picking the evidence.

Paul Carter
January 21, 2017 6:47 pm

This attack on skeptics is an example of “the best defense is a good offense”. With more real-world evidence rolling in, believers can no longer defend climate claims using science, so they’re going on the attack by reframing the issue as a psychological flaw in skeptics.

Reply to  Paul Carter
January 21, 2017 7:31 pm

““Where there is conflict over societal risks – from climate change to nuclear-power safety to impacts of gun control laws, both sides invoke the mantel of science,”
see the word both?
observe

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 21, 2017 9:58 pm

I see the word both. So what? You pick one sentence out of context and focus on one word.
I also see the word sides. I also see an implicit acceptance that “climate change” is bad, nuclear power is unsafe, gun control laws are not harsh enough, that all pose existential societal risks, and the skeptics are on the wrong side of the debate.

Paul Carter
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 21, 2017 10:43 pm

Yes, I see the word ‘both’. Can you see the reframing in action in that very same sentence ? Their use of the phrases ‘both sides’ and ‘invoke the mantel of science’ is the reframing. They are losing on the battleground of science, so they’re reframing it to the battleground of psychology. Science isn’t a mantel – it is an evidence-based process. Their abuse of psychology, however, is an actual ‘mantel’.
When a psychologist points the finger at skeptics, there’s three fingers pointing right back.

DonS
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 21, 2017 11:06 pm

Yep, I see the word “both”. Then there’s the word “mantel”. What, exactly, does a shelf over a fireplace have to do with the topic at hand?

afonzarelli
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 21, 2017 11:52 pm

Maybe they should have said “alt” instead? (☺)

Roger Knights
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 22, 2017 8:55 am

“Where there is conflict over societal risks – from climate change to nuclear-power safety to impacts of gun control laws, both sides invoke the mantel of science,”
I see the word “mantel” (“mantelpiece or shelf”) misused for its homonym, “mantle” (“leadership, power, or authority”).
NYAH, NYAH, as Nelson Muntz would say.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 22, 2017 1:57 pm

PS: A “mantle” is also a cloak, so the “mantle of science” = “the cloak of authority, power, leadership.”

Reply to  Paul Carter
January 21, 2017 7:56 pm

They also seem to have overlooked that skepticism is at the heart of the scientific method.
Dave Letterman used to have a skit called “The Museum of the hard to Believe”
Global warming alarmism belongs in the central exhibit in that museum.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 21, 2017 10:02 pm

Menicholas,
You jest, but sadly global warming alarmism is now a central exhibit at the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia, one of my favorite places to go as a teenager, but now pretty much sucks, except for the planetarium.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 4:21 am

Interestingly, i also grew up in Philly and the Franklin Institute was by far my favorite place in the world for a number of years.
It is sad to hear that news, but hardly surprising.
Last time I was there was a few years back…I was in town for the Holidays and took my nephew to see harry potter at the IMAX there.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 6:24 am

Back in the 60s, they used to split a chunk of wood using an artificial lightning bolt.
Intensely dramatic and stunningly loud.
Last time I was there the electricity show was still interesting, but very tame.
At least the penny mashing machine was still there; where you inserted a penny and the machine would pass the penny through rollers and a die reforming the penny into a Franklin Institute emblem.
And the gift shop still had overpriced cool things.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 1:38 pm

I suppose they still have the Foucault pendulum in that big stairwell?
That is very cool…proof of the rotation of the Earth with naught but a weight and a long rope.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 4:48 pm

I was back in Philadelphia several years ago for a birthday party for a friend of mine. my two sons were young then, and I took them to independence hall, the Liberty Bell (now across the street) and the Franklin Institute. I was really disappointed by the global warming exhibit. IIRC, it took up most of the first floor. One thing they still had that I remember was the model of the heart that you could walk through. Still had the electricity demo, but was lame. I’ve always liked astronomy from a backyard/novice viewpoint and was glad I could take the kids to a planetarium show, but overall not as impressive as it used to be.
The Foucault pendulum is still there.

Reply to  Phil R
January 22, 2017 8:36 pm

The pendulum is still there because there is a really good reason. Sometime in the 1950’s there was a solar eclipse, and the pendulum in England made some patterns that weren’t normal. I sure they are watching to see if that occurs again.

rogerthesurf
January 21, 2017 6:50 pm

“Merely talking about “evidence” or “data” does not typically change a skeptic’s mind about a particular topic, whether it is climate change, genetically modified organisms, or vaccines.”
Now thats a good way to start an essay. I will not read any further.
What meaning does this guy give to the words “evidence” and “Data”?
Cheers
Roger
Some evidence and data here http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  rogerthesurf
January 21, 2017 10:07 pm

genetically modified organisms ==> new, non-browning, “Arctic” apples, What’s not to like?
Vaccines ==> I’ve got all the doc says I should
Climate ==> I live where a glacier once was — that’s hard to deny
If I’m going to read about cognitive processes, Scott Adams does a much better job.

Reply to  John F. Hultquist
January 22, 2017 4:23 am

Yes, Scott Adams ‘splains it much better, while acknowledging that everyone has it to some degree…although he seems to think his readers all share his lack of enough knowledge to discern between the two sides.

Roger Knights
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
January 22, 2017 1:56 pm

PS: A “mantle” is also a cloak, so the “mantle of science” = “the cloak of authority, power, etc.”

Reply to  rogerthesurf
January 21, 2017 10:09 pm

rogerthesurf,

What meaning does this guy give to the words “evidence” and “Data”?

It’s Social Psychology, therefore, it’s a Humpty-Dumptyism (d*mn, did I just come up with a neologism?).

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”

David S
January 21, 2017 6:53 pm

I always find the question of what motivates skeptics relative to AGW supporters a very clear distinction. One group see policies which hurt the poor , create greater control by beaurocracies, divert funds from health and social services , destroys industries and jobs and creates fuel poverty and feel the need to speak up despite having little or no financial support and another group that is payed to create the most extreme view knowing that their own future financial position is enhanced by the extent of alarm that can be created by their comments. Further they realise that if their report fails to match the extreme views of their financial supporters the funding tap will be turned off. I know who has the moral high ground.

hunter
Reply to  David S
January 23, 2017 4:49 am

+10. The social studies editorial posing as a science paper is in the moral gutter.

January 21, 2017 7:00 pm

Nice propaganda trick there to equate CAGW skeptics to anti-vaxers.
Compared to “climate change”, vaccination is a trivially easy problem to understand, and most importantly, it is amenable to experimentation, with negative controls etc. It is entirely reasonable to accept vaccination as proven yet consider CAGW an unproven or even failed hypothesis.

Reply to  Michael Palmer
January 21, 2017 7:50 pm

I am pretty sure there are more anti-vaxers among the warmistas than among the CAGW skeptics.

afonzarelli
Reply to  Menicholas
January 21, 2017 11:59 pm

Yeah, and i was wondering about the reference to GMOs, too. The “consensus” is that they are safe for people and the environment…

Reply to  Michael Palmer
January 21, 2017 7:52 pm

Anti-vaxers tend to be the same people who want to ban GMOs, think any pharmaceutical is poison, but all herbal remedies are as good as gold and who gobble any illicit substance anyone shoves in their face.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 21, 2017 10:49 pm

I am often shocked by what seem to be rational people, who apparently believe that if it’s labelled a vaccine, it must fine and dandy to inject into infants . . (like we are speaking of a vitamin V or something ; ) And they often speak as though anyone who actually takes a skeptical/scientific approach (you kno0w, testing things ; ) must be “anti-vax” (again, as though we are discussing a freaking vitamin ; )
Get clue, please . .

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 21, 2017 11:00 pm

PS~ Same goes for GMO’s. I’m a man of science, not blind faith in labels ; )

afonzarelli
Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 12:07 am

Yes, John, imagine if back in the 1800s they were discussing AGW as though it were fact. We have 150+ years of observational data now a days. People who tout GMOs are like those people back in the 1800s…

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 4:29 am

John Knight,
I am glad to hear you do not have blind faith in labels.
So tell me, which particular vaccines are the antivaxers correct about?
And maybe you can be the one to clue me in to why GMOs are all poison, as their opponents tend to believe?

Sheri
Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 7:53 am

JohnKnight: Decades of insulin use and no monster babies, no mutated diabetics, etc. Yet, it’s going to happen, isn’t it?

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 1:04 pm

Sheri,
If drug A has been shown to be safe and effective, do you assume drug B is?

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 1:12 pm

Menicholas,
Why is your response not something along the lines of; *Vaccines and GMOs are subjected to thorough double blind testing before they are allowed on the market.* ? You could say that about pretty much all pharmaceuticals, couldn’t you?

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 1:41 pm

John,
Why indeed.
I might ask why, instead of answering a simple and straightforward question, you change the subject?
I overlooked you putting words in my mouth in the first instance above, but only because I do not know what point you are trying to make.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 1:52 pm

A curious thing, when an individual wishes to direct both sides of a conversation.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 5:24 pm

Meticulous,
“I might ask why, instead of answering a simple and straightforward question, you change the subject?”
You changed the subject (and, shifted the burden of proof), as I see the matter. And, you and I have no way of knowing if people are harmed by any given vaccine . . it’s not legal to sue, and thereby be able to subpoena any records that manufactures may (or may not) have, which might give us an informed idea of just how safe (and effective) this or that vaccine is . .

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 22, 2017 6:00 pm

(I have no idea how I managed to mess up you name like that . . I thought I was copy pasting, but apparently selected a spellchecker option ; )

hunter
Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 4:54 am

Menicholas, you seem to have attracted a real kook. Keep up the good work.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 10:01 am

John Knight, you still haven’t provided a single example of a vaccination that does more harm than good.
I will help you. Smallpox vaccination is no longer needed, and has been discontinued. With respect to polio, the simpler and longer lasting Sabin (live) vaccine has been replaced by the older Salk (dead) vaccine, since the live vaccine had a low yet finite risk of reversal to wild type polio virus, with attendant clinical manifestation.
Tuberculosis vaccination has been discontinued in many countries, since the low incidence of this disease – plus the availability of treatment, as well as the limited effectiveness of the vaccine – suggested it.
Many vaccines that are available are only used on travelers, military personnel etc. but not kids. There is in fact a rational process in place that weights benefits and risks of each individual vaccine, and to keep this analysis up to date with epidemiological trends. This process is carried out by humans and therefore fallible, but overall, it has been tremendously successful and beneficial.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 1:24 pm

I’m calling for actual scientific testing, guys . . we know how to do that, but it is not being done with vaccines, (or GMOs) . Please begin thinking skeptically.scientifically, for real, rather than virtue signalling your deep faith in the great “scientific community” . . which obviously did not come to our rescue when the GAGW beast was on the verge of essentially consuming what’s left of actual scientific reasoning in our society/world.

Reply to  JohnKnight
January 23, 2017 2:07 pm

It may not be the vaccines themselves or the idea of being vaccinated. It is probably the process of how those vaccines get to market. Who does that, the compounding labs ? I don’t think they are all on the up and up.
GMO ‘s are another bag of goodies. Who knows ? All I know is that 95% of the food on this planet I can’t eat anymore.
Climate science has certainly caused other sciences to be challenged that weren’t questioned before. In the long run, that may be a good thing. There is a difference between blind belief and questioning the science. At the root, it may not be that people are against vaccines or GMO foods, it may be the science in it that is the problem.
By the way, on vaccines, the US is one of the few countries that still use partially killed live viruses, the rest use a cellular. They don’t have the problems we do. I wonder who has a financial interest in keeping it that way.

MarkW
Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 1:39 pm

Vaccine’s have been tested. Extensively. Same goes for GMOs.
Some people are just born paranoid.

MarkW
Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 1:42 pm

JohnKnight, if you think that vaccines and GMOs aren’t rigorously tested, then you know nothing about either.

Reply to  MarkW
January 23, 2017 2:19 pm

Mark, I do know the US uses partially killed live viruses and most of the rest use a cellular. You know which countries don’t have problems with vaccines, the a cellular. They also don’t have people looking like idiots being against vaccines. I don’t have trust in the vaccines in this country either. And the doctors are useless if your child becomes sick from being vaccinated. Not my problem. And I do think that vaccines are a good idea.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 1:49 pm

I’m convinced, Mark . . that you believe ; )

Zeke
Reply to  JohnKnight
January 23, 2017 2:29 pm

MarkW,
1. flu vaccines cannot possibly be effective because there are too many strains, and there is a problem with people being required to get them — in GA for example
2. an HPV vaccine is being advertised here in my state as an anti-cancer vaccine People get it voluntarily but without actively researching it, they will just give it to your kids on a routine vaccine update
3. what the Greatest Generation did was usually very useful but the Boomers are undoing and replacing everything their parents (and all previous generations) accomplished with other things that we should not necessarily trust, for example. wrt energy and agriculture, and probably vaccines.
4. The FDA does not merit any of the trust it is given. It approves extremely harmful psychotropic drugs and processes in psychiatry, resulting in a75 billion dollar a year industry; and despite the devastating side effects, the FDA provides no protection to victims. The FDA is merely an obedient arm of the psych drug industry In Florida there is forced drug treatment of children. ref later if needed.
5. I have no problem with GMO corn or any of the 9 crops in the US that are GMOs, but I also do not want the varieties we grow now to be replaced by Boomers claiming their GMOs are better for the environment, more sustainable, or include some added vitamin. There have already been discussions of altering chocolate, wheat, potatoes, coffee etc? We need to understand the danger of loosing our own varieties to totally unwanted environmental replacements.
6. And so, for the sake of knowing that Russets, for example, are not secretly targeted for replacement by environmentalists pushing sustainable agriculture, I do think it is now necessary to voluntarily and accurately state which variety of produce is being used. This is already done; think of apples. These varieties are always labeled, so it is not burdensome. In bulk grains this may not be possible. But varieties of fruits and vegetables we have always grown in this country will be a target for replacement under the guise of environmental sustainability or nutrition, as WUWT has discussed many times. That why I think I it is possible to have a little bit of common ground with anti-GMO activists, because our crop varieties are all going to be targeted as unsustainable by environmentalists.

Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 3:07 pm

John, vaccines are being tested, issues are being tracked, and appropriate measures are being taken. Smallpox live vaccination (using vaccinia virus) produced serious side effects in something like 1 child in 3000. (The brother of a high school buddy was mentally handicapped due to an vaccinia virus encephalitis suffered as a toddler.) So, it was all for the good that this vaccination was discontinued as soon as it was no longer needed.
Measles vaccination produces encephalitis in about 1 child in a million. Now, the wild type virus, with which you will get inevitably infected if the general public not protected by vaccination, will produce encephalitis in about 1 child in 3000. Yes, vaccination can hurt you, but native virus is much more likely to do so.
Polio vaccination: inactivated virus (Salk vaccine) works, but must be injected. Live vaccine (Sabin) – attenuated virus – can be swallowed, and immunity lasts longer. Problem: the polio virus has an RNA genome, which is more prone to mutation than DNA (as is found e.g. in vaccinia virus), and the single point mutation that distinguishes the attenuated from the wild type virus can revert. As a worst case scenario, a wild type polio outbreak could start from a vaccinated patient in whom the virus underwent that reversion. (Just imagine the pile of hay the anti-vaxers would make from such a thing.) So, the responsible thing to do was to abandon the Sabin vaccine.
You insinuate that advocates of vaccination are gullible. We aren’t. That’s why we are immune to both antivax and climate change propaganda.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Menicholas
January 23, 2017 4:03 pm

Michael,
I am not “anti-vax”, just pro-test. (Not models, not algorithms, not “tracking of issues”, but actual double-blind style testing). Safe and effective vaccines will surely pass with flying colors, and you will have the scientific results to show me, rather than using propaganda techniques like simplistic shaming through lame oajoritives like ‘climate denier’ . . er I mean ‘anti-vax’ ; )

Pop Piasa
January 21, 2017 7:04 pm

Do they really have to ponder why smart folks reject “settled science” or “consensus belief”?

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Pop Piasa
January 21, 2017 7:23 pm

(this is advanced education we’re talking about, here)

Barclay E MacDonald
January 21, 2017 7:05 pm

They do not distinguish between healthy, rational skepticism and an ideologue. They only see skepticism in terms of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Barclay E MacDonald
January 21, 2017 7:36 pm

They can only see things from their indoctrinated level of thought and assume that their perception is more valid than any the free thinker. Very much a pseudo-religion.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Pop Piasa
January 21, 2017 7:37 pm

…Or is it a cult?

hunter
Reply to  Barclay E MacDonald
January 23, 2017 4:57 am

When one is an ideologue, one needs to frame the discussion rather badly. Tge academy of today is infested with ideologues posing as academics. As the paper this thread discusses demonstrates rather well.

mellyrn
January 21, 2017 7:24 pm

Merely talking about “evidence” or “data” does not typically change a skeptic’s mind

They assume no skeptic got that way by changing his mind. I infer this is also projection on their part: they don’t change their minds, therefore assume no one else does either. But I used to be a warmist until I really looked at the data.
I have observed trends in mind-changing. I used to hang out on talk.origins; I saw a handful of creationists change their minds, abandon Biblical literalism and come to understand evolution. I have never, then or since, observed a change in the other direction.
Since my school days, pretty much everyone has changed their minds from “continental drift is absurd” to “of course plate tectonics”. No one’s going the other way.
I suspect there is a reason for the directionality, and I suspect it has to do with fulfilled versus failed predictions.
I’m hardly the only warmist-turned-skeptic. Can anyone find me an example of a climate skeptic-turned-warmist? Thanks in advance.

Reply to  mellyrn
January 21, 2017 7:33 pm

“I’m hardly the only warmist-turned-skeptic. Can anyone find me an example of a climate skeptic-turned-warmist? Thanks in advance.”
Muller.
When I met him and interviewed for the job he was a full blown skeptic.
All the way through writing the papers he was a skeptic..
Then one day….

kim
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 22, 2017 9:23 pm

Heh, blown full of it.
=============

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 22, 2017 10:52 pm

At what stage Professor Muller became a committed dangerous human-caused global warming (aka climate change™) believer, whether before he led the assembling of the BEST temperature record or as a result of it, or has always held that belief, well only he knows that for sure.
The other leading lights in collecting and curating the surface instrumental records, Hansen and Jones, were definitely committed believers even before they set about their tasks which tends to raise suspicions of, at least, confirmation bias.
In Ice Ages and Astronomical Causes (2000) chapter 1 Prof Muller gives a good summary of climate history dropping only a slight curtsy to AGW:
http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate.html

MarkW
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 23, 2017 1:43 pm

Muller lied.
Even a casual reading of his comments prior to the BEST study show that he has always been a warmist.
What is it about you warmists and your need to polish your credentials by lying about your past?

Reply to  mellyrn
January 21, 2017 7:49 pm

They try to claim a few, but the claims are lies.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  mellyrn
January 21, 2017 8:05 pm

Hmm… a Duck Duck Go search of “climate skeptic-turned-warmist” turned up “Update: Warmist turned skeptic, Dr. Lennart Bengtsson, rips ‘pseudo-science in climate research’ & intimidation” at the top. http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/05/22/update-former-warmist-turned-skeptical-scientist-dr-lennart-bengtsson-speaks-out-i-find-it-difficult-to-believe-that-the-prominent-jewish-scientists-in-the-gwpf-council-appreciate-being-labeled/
Can our “honorable opponents” here show any actual instances of skeptics becoming believers recorded on the internet? (maybe an Algore revival tent phonecam clip?)

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Pop Piasa
January 22, 2017 3:13 pm

(crickets chirping…)

Reply to  mellyrn
January 21, 2017 8:25 pm

Whatshisface…Muller comes to mind. Richard Muller, I think his name is.
He has been presented, and i believe has described himself as a skeptic turned True Believer.
But he was not ever a real skeptic.
He was only mildly critical of the most over the top alarmism…which counts as a den!er in warmista circles.

AndyG55
Reply to  Menicholas
January 21, 2017 10:00 pm

Muller may work at Berkeley University..
But BEST is NOT linked to the University…… don’t be fooled
They class themselves as a “non-profit” but have an income of half a million per year, I wonder who from????
http://www.nonprofitfacts.com/CA/Berkeley-Earth-Inc.html

Reply to  mellyrn
January 21, 2017 8:37 pm

Unfortunately, my son-in-law is one–he used to be a creationist and thought Global warming was a hoax– then he changed–and began to believe in evolution. He heard a lecture by Tyson and decided that was the end all be all. Global warming was real and there was a 97% consensus. You can’t talk to him about it because he is convinced that all the “real” scientists agree. Anyone on this site is not “real” in his mind. You just think you know something, but don’t. And don’t bother him with the facts please, Tyson and Nye told him what the facts are. There is no sarc tag.
PS–I greatly admire my son-in-law for a lot of reasons–and can’t understand his resistance on this issue.

Stevan Reddish
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 21, 2017 10:43 pm

Shelly Marshall January 21, 2017 at 8:37 pm,
There seems to be 2 types of believers. (Whether we are hardwired to be one or the other, or “mature” from one to the other, is a subject for another discussion.)
One type is driven by information. A person of this type changes their beliefs so as to be consistent with the latest information, even when this puts their beliefs at odds with their peers. To change this person’s mind, you must present them with compelling evidence. This person thinks a fact has intrinsic value separate from the presenter, and therefore values new facts from any source.
The second type of believer is driven by group think. A person of this type changes their beliefs so as to be consistent with their peers, even when this puts their beliefs at odds with the latest information. To change this persons mind, you must present them with superior numbers of believers. This person thinks the value of a fact is dependent upon the presenter, and therefore spurns new facts not coming from an accepted source.
I think perhaps your son-in-law is of the 2nd type of believer, and his peer group has changed to include a greater number of non-creationists.
That the writer of the paper in this post says
“In our research, we find that people treat facts as relevant more when the facts tend to support their opinions,” says Campbell. “When the facts are against their opinions, they don’t necessarily deny the facts, but they say the facts are less relevant.”
reveals that he is the 2nd type, and views others as the same as himself.
SR

Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 21, 2017 11:35 pm

Shelly, it sounds to me like your son-in-law simply went from blind faith in one thing, to blind faith in another. That’s much easier than trying to understand the actual science yourself and is a form of laziness. Some feel it is just as well to let an authority figure do the thinking for them and just trust them. Try asking him precisely how many “real” people make up the 97%. After all, the percentage had to have been calculated from an actual specific number of people. When he finds out what that number really is, he may lose a little faith in his new authority figures.

David Chappell
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 22, 2017 3:09 am

Stevan Reddish
I would add a 3rd type – the Vicar of Bray type who changes his beliefs for political expediency.

milwaukeebob
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 22, 2017 7:55 am

It was probably Tyson’s false “we humans are genetically only 1% different than apes”. It’s an extremely shallow analogy but if a person doesn’t know much about genetics or doesn’t think about it, it’s very persuasive.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 22, 2017 9:08 am

Unfortunately, my son-in-law is one–he used to be a creationist and thought Global warming was a hoax– then he changed–and began to believe in evolution. He heard a lecture by Tyson and decided that was the end all be all. Global warming was real and there was a 97% consensus. You can’t talk to him about it because he is convinced that all the “real” scientists agree. Anyone on this site is not “real” in his mind. You just think you know something, but don’t. And don’t bother him with the facts please, Tyson and Nye told him what the facts are. There is no sarc tag.

The existence of people with know-it-all attitudes like this is a strong argument for the existence of betting sites on climate predictions, such as used to be handled by Intrade.

TA
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 23, 2017 5:34 am

Shelly, one who believes in human-caused climate change has a lot of “evidence” to point to:
All you have to do is look at a “Hockey stick” chart that shows the temperatures going up, up up, year after year, to have your belief in human-caused global warming confirmed. Your son-in-law probably doesn’t know this chart has been manipulated by climate change advocates and does not represent reality.
You have what seems like the entire Science establishment on board with human-caused climate change based on propaganda put out by climate change advocates.
You have what *is* the entire Elite establishment of the whole world on board with human-caused climate change, mostly because there is a lot of money and power in it for them. Your son-in-law probably thinks they are just being altruistic and responsible.
You have the powerful lie that “97 percent” of scientists believe human-caused climate change is real. You will see this appeal to authority lie countless times in the future as the climate change subject comes to the forefront, because it is so effective.
So if you believe what the authorities say, then you are going to believe in human-caused global warming.
Your son-in-law probably would reject any suggestion that NASA would lie to him. It’s not really NASA doing the lying, it’s just a few individuals who work for NASA who are doing the lying but that’s not the way most of the public looks at it. If NASA says its so, it must be so.
If you are inclined to trust the establishment and believe in human-caused climate change, you have a lot of things backing up your opinion. It doesn’t matter that most of the facts used to establish human-caused climate change are distortions of reality, because most people never dig into the subject that deeply, whether from lack of time or inclination, and so go with the majority opinion.
If I were you, I would point your son-in-law to some articles that debunk the “97 percent” lie. If he saw how unscientifically that 97 percent figure was derived, he might start to actually question some of the other things about climate change that he has been taking for granted.
Senator Inhofe inserted a couple of articles into the Congressional Record the other day during the hearing for the EPA administrator, so that could be the source for debunking this lie and maybe opening up your son-in-laws eyes. Google works for that, too. Btw, the actual numerical figure for scientists who thought humans were changing the climate, was actually less than 2 percent. 97 percent verses 2 percent. That’s how big the lie is.

JohnKnight
Reply to  mellyrn
January 21, 2017 11:16 pm

“I have never, then or since, observed a change in the other direction.”
Hi, mellyrn, I believed in Evolution for most of my life (I’m 63), but no longer do. I suggest you think very carefully about what actual evidence you’ve see.

afonzarelli
Reply to  JohnKnight
January 22, 2017 12:19 am

Yes, John, one has to wonder whether more go from belief in evolution to non belief (than visa versa). We’re all (largely) trained to believe in evolution until one day we start asking questions. i think the rise in intelligent design theory did much to make skeptics out of believers in evolution…

Sheri
Reply to  JohnKnight
January 22, 2017 8:01 am

afonzarelli: You’re jumping right into the “scientist” or “religious zealot” dichotomy. Why MUST is always be God OR evolution? Why can’t someone question evolution on the basis of the inductive reasoning and lack of evidence, plus past improper conclusions? Why must one “replace” evolution with intelligent design? It is entirely scientific and proper to say “We just don’t know”.

afonzarelli
Reply to  JohnKnight
January 22, 2017 11:00 am

Well… if there is a third mechanism besides natural selection and an intelligent designer then by all means. Perhaps chance maybe? (meaning that the first life form just happened into being from inert matter by chance given “billions and billions” of chances) God doesn’t cut it for some (who created god?) and natural selection doesn’t cut it for others (natural selection can’t begin until a life form is already created). i think the dichotomy “coincidentally” exists because there are so few candidates for the mechanism of the origin of life…

MarkW
Reply to  JohnKnight
January 23, 2017 1:47 pm

Unfortunately it’s impossible to prove whether evolution is 100% chance or if it has been guided.

robert_g
Reply to  mellyrn
January 22, 2017 9:45 am
robert_g
Reply to  robert_g
January 22, 2017 10:03 am

To clarify seemingly unclear paragraphing indentation, (at least, to me) this comment is in response to Mellyrn (Jan. 21, 7:24 pm) and Pop Piasa (Jan. 21, 8:05 pm) upthread.

commieBob
January 21, 2017 7:47 pm

This isn’t the first such paper. The common thread among all the papers is the assumption that the skeptics are wrong. I have never seen such a paper that entertained the idea that the alarmists might be wrong.
Given that CAGW opinion is so reliably divided along party lines, and given that most academics are left of center, it is illogical to think that the alarmists have to be right. They are just as prone to policy based fact making as are the skeptics.
There are a reasonable number of skeptics who frequent WUWT, myself included, who are left of center politically. I’ve never seen one of these papers that addresses the fact that left wing skeptics exist (even if we are in the minority). I have also never seen one of these papers that deals with the malfeasance that was exposed in the climategate emails.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  commieBob
January 21, 2017 8:12 pm

CB “…policy based fact making…” that’s a good way to put it, as opposed to “reality based fact finding”.

afonzarelli
Reply to  commieBob
January 22, 2017 12:25 am

commieBob is a lefty (who knew?!)…

Mindert Eiting
Reply to  commieBob
January 22, 2017 2:30 am

And remember that the Soviets used to send their dissenters to psychiatric hospitals. This is a quasi-scientific extension of the Ad-hominem argument, trying to associate skepticism with motivations or political belief. You don’t have to be right or left wing to see that ‘p and not-p’ is necessarily false. Substitute for p ‘we will get more snow’ and every adult may surmise that AGW is bollocks.

Roger Knights
Reply to  commieBob
January 22, 2017 9:12 am

I’ve never seen one of these papers that addresses the fact that left wing skeptics exist

It’s not as though prominent examples didn’t exist. Steve McIntyre (socialist and carbon-taxer) is one, and Judy Curry (Obama donor) is another.

John Robertson
Reply to  commieBob
January 23, 2017 1:38 pm

Thats the one,”policy based fact making”.
CAGW being a product of our bureaucracies, being almost 100% funded by unsuspecting taxpayers, the Policy Based Evidence Manufacturing (PBEM)is its calling card.
Environment Canada even went so far as to use the phrase “Environment Canada’s Science”..
I suspect none even noticed the irony, although I do suspect some competent scientists inside the bureau got a huge laugh out of them prattlingly on.
“Environment Canada’s Science shows..”
And real science..?
And when asked, in writing, their response is..”We defer to the findings of the IPCC”.
No comment as to who signed off on accepting these “UN findings” as acceptable for government policy, on behalf of Canada.

January 21, 2017 7:47 pm

As usual, what they are saying applies equally if not more so to themselves.
That they can describe cognitive bias and cognitive dissonance and then fail to understand they are themselves subject to it is jarring.

J Mac
Reply to  Menicholas
January 21, 2017 8:05 pm

Menicholas,
I agree wholeheartedly with you but don’t be too harsh on the poor dears…
Paraphrasing from the article: ” The thing with people who hold climate derangement views is that they are often just as educated, and just as interested in science, as the rest of us.”

Pop Piasa
Reply to  J Mac
January 21, 2017 8:16 pm

But just as often, the impression of “deranged climate” is instilled upon the less educated and intellectually challenged, via the MSM.

Reply to  J Mac
January 21, 2017 8:21 pm

Oh, I think everyone here knows I can be quite a bit more harsh if i forget my manners…which happens a lot unfortunately.
And in places where the tenor is not so polite…well…I go by the DB Stealey doctrine: Treat me nice, and I will treat you better, treat me bad, and I will treat you worse.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  J Mac
January 21, 2017 9:26 pm

I miss Dave’s presence and moderation efforts here, though we keep in touch.

hunter
January 21, 2017 8:15 pm

What an insulting condescending and fallacious bit of faux science.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  hunter
January 21, 2017 9:38 pm

That’s the story in a nutshell, next?

Robert from oz
January 21, 2017 8:22 pm

OT from oz , Their ABC is currently displaying this headline grabber ,
Trumps aids request baker to make the same inauguration cake for Trump as the one they made for Obummer.
Now that’s hard hitting investigative journalism at its finest .

Reply to  Robert from oz
January 22, 2017 4:36 am

Yeah, trump ordered a “Number 5b” please, instead of paying for a custom made jobby.
I do the same thing when i go to a bakery for a cake.
Called being pragmatic.

TA
January 21, 2017 8:27 pm

article: “One striking feature of people who hold science-skeptic views is that they are often just as educated, and just as interested in science, as the rest of us.”
What exactly is a science-skeptic, anyway? Are they equating “science” with “CAGW”? I think they are.

Catcracking
January 21, 2017 8:28 pm

Do the authors of this article realize that their “theories” apply to either side of the climate change/global warming issue. It seems to me that there are a lot of lemmings on the AGW side who due to various reasons such as getting paid or lack of any skepticism very well fall into the camp they describe of only considering information that reinforces their AGW beliefs. How many times have we heard them jump on and spread an article that was subsequently easily debunked by a skeptic.
Finally I think the authors fail to realize that being a skeptic or a lemming is a personality trait, because one who is a skeptic tends to challenge virtually all claims they are exposed to at the frustration of their teachers; for example, the government has put out many “dangers” associated with eating certain foods which I never fully accepted, quite too often after decades they have come back and changed their minds. Even Doctors pushed these concepts that after time and research were debunked.

RoHa
January 21, 2017 8:29 pm

‘people cherry-pick which pieces of information to pay attention to “in order to reach conclusions that they want to be true.”’
We need the SOCIETY FOR PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY to tell us this?
Oh. Wait.
“the deposition is to construe evidence in identity-congruent rather than truth-congruent ways, a state of disorientation that is pretty symmetric across the political spectrum.”
That sounds much more academic. Give the man a research grant.

Reply to  RoHa
January 21, 2017 10:20 pm

Fire the son-of-a-b*tch and let him find a real job.

TA
January 21, 2017 8:33 pm

There’s so much to make fun of in this article, but I’m going to bed, and will leave it in the very capable hands of others, who I am sure will do it justice. 🙂

JMA
January 21, 2017 8:42 pm

“Whether the information is processed in a balanced way.” I love Big Brother.

Logoswrench
January 21, 2017 8:52 pm

Hilarious article. The clowns obviously don’t get irony.

January 21, 2017 8:56 pm

Gonna be in San Marcos 23rd-26th. damn, gonna miss it.
Whoops, just noticed today is the 21st. Already missed it.

Tom Crozier
January 21, 2017 9:14 pm

I need a vote on whether my cat is male or female.

Reply to  Tom Crozier
January 21, 2017 10:22 pm

sexist transfelinegenderphobe, it’s a zhemale.

steve mcdonald
January 21, 2017 9:21 pm

The predictions are wrong.
The medieval warming period is never mentioned.
The Roman warming period is never mentioned except to say it never happened.
The little ice age is not mentioned except to say what little ice age?
And the older temperatures have been homogenized down in a propaganda exercise.
And you ask why are people sceptical?
I will enlighten you.
We are not idiots.
Get over it.

steve mcdonald
Reply to  steve mcdonald
January 21, 2017 9:43 pm

These people are trained in psychology so they should self-medicate if they aren’t costumed by greed.
Alas it seems they are.

January 21, 2017 9:54 pm

Here is a constructive message for the Alamo mob and their guesses.
Overcome the obvious ploy of trying to ignore those with different views.
Talk to them.
Ask them why their views are different.
Most guesses about why some people have different views are way off the mark.
The most common view I meet is that Establishment science is of poor quality That is what draws criticism.. Not all work, but a lot.
Your remedies must look inwards, not outwards.
Don’t bother to study this and report. Your friends, some friends, might just dump you from your social and academic circles. Or circus – never have I seen such stupid social antics as this climate clique performs.
Geoff

Frank Karvv
January 21, 2017 9:57 pm

Should be:
Psychological researchers are working to understand the cognitive processes, ideologies, cultural demands, and conspiracy beliefs that cause smart people to believe junk-scientific messages.

AndyG55
January 21, 2017 9:58 pm

Psychology? and Lewendowsky isn’t involved???
Zero credibility !!!