Today at the AGU convention in San Francisco, NOAA’s NSIDC released their annual Arctic report card, which I copy below without comment. In a story released by AP, NSIDC’s director Mark Serreze said:
“Personally, I would have to say that this last year has been the most extreme year for the Arctic that I have ever seen,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, who wasn’t part of the 106-page report. “It’s crazy.”
At least he’s off the “death-spiral” talk. From NOAA’s Arctic Program:
Persistent warming trend and loss of sea ice are triggering extensive Arctic changes.
Observations in 2016 showed a continuation of long-term Arctic warming trends which reveals the interdependency of physical and biological Arctic systems, contributing to a growing recognition that the Arctic is an integral part of the globe, and increasing the need for comprehensive communication of Arctic change to diverse user audiences.
Highlights:
- The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2016 is by far the highest since 1900, and new monthly record highs were recorded for January, February, October and November 2016.
- After only modest changes from 2013-2015, minimum sea ice extent at the end of summer 2016 tied with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record, which started in 1979.
- Spring snow cover extent in the North American Arctic was the lowest in the satellite record, which started in 1967.
- In 37 years of Greenland ice sheet observations, only one year had earlier onset of spring melting than 2016.
- The Arctic Ocean is especially prone to ocean acidification, due to water temperatures that are colder than those further south. The short Arctic food chain leaves Arctic marine ecosystems vulnerable to ocean acidification events.
- Thawing permafrost releases carbon into the atmosphere, whereas greening tundra absorbs atmospheric carbon. Overall, tundra is presently releasing net carbon into the atmosphere.
- Small Arctic mammals, such as shrews, and their parasites, serve as indicators for present and historical environmental variability. Newly acquired parasites indicate northward sifts of sub-Arctic species and increases in Arctic biodiversity.
Video:
The report:
Full PDF here
Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card
Warming is welcome in the Arctic. It’s too cold in Greenland, Siberia, Alaska and northern Canada. Ice free Arctic ocean is good for navigation. Sailors don’t want to get stuck in ice and the Eskimo want to farm in Greenland.
Well the Inuit sure as heck won’t be hunting seals if this goes on… I am not sure they want to turn to farming though.
Tell me, an ice free arctic: surely that would have some further impact on the world’s climate? Changed albedo at least?
“Tell me, an ice free arctic: surely that would have some further impact on the world’s climate? Changed albedo at least?”
Maybe, maybe not. But there’s no evidence that it will be catastrophic in any way. There’s also no evidence that what we’re seeing is unprecedented on geologic time scales. Forget about your short, myopic view of a couple of decades and short term trends (short meaning less than 1000 years).
A few years ago, much of the nothern hemisphere was covered with snow. That albedo change would be orders of magnitude higher than just the arctic. Yet nothing catastrophic occurred.
It is a situation we haven’t seen since the early Holocene, that’s for sure.
If it has any effect, that’s a cause for concern… we don’t even have to go to ‘severe effect’ or your ‘catastrophic’ hyperbole
We don’t know that for sure. That’s the whole problem. It most likely has, and much more recently than the early Holocene, but we don’t know for sure one way or the other. But you’re admitting that it’s happened in recent geologic history. So, not unprecedented. Good.
If it’s not severe or catastrophic, then why is it a cause for concern? It’s happened before, as you said. We’ll adapt, as we always have.
“The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2016 is by far the highest since 1900, and new monthly record highs were recorded for January, February, October and November 2016.”
Have you noticed that the “high” temperatures were in the winter months, when the temperature anyway is far below freezing? The ice does not melt because the temperature is -15C instead of -25C, but the average yearly temperature could change a lot.
Hey, it has been zero C or even just above as the storm systems have come through…
and the ice has melted in November on the Atlantic side, due to warm ocean temperatures, also this month in Bering strait, again due to warm ocean temps…
and the ice extent is a record low and it isn’t forming or is forming over a month late in many areas.
Yawn
We have a comparison of snapshot measurements of a short term cycle, riding on a medium term cycle, imposed on a long term cycle. The equivalent of measuring the temperature change from 10:00 AM to 2:00PM, and extrapolating it to the next month, without factoring the daily change in temperature, and the seasonal variation.
We have 40 years of reasonably good Arctic data. Before that it is poor to the point of not useful. Making broad generalizations about the severity of these short term trends is just bad science. But that is what passes for analysis of “long-term Arctic warming trends”, when the agenda demands adherence to the party line.
That is not the case.
Recent efforts have collated excellent data going back to 1850
Norwegian, Danish and Soviet data exists, plus records of whaling ships, plus cold war era ice information from submarines… reams of data.
Where’s the information we’re coming from 6 years El Niña doing 2 years La Niña.
That way they can go arguing on and on!. Duh!
If the ice sheet gradually breaks up, there will be smaller and smaller ice floes. As long as some of these remain, the fetch available for the wind to create waves is limited. You have all seen photos of scattered ice floes with a dead flat calm sea – quite mirror like. And ‘mirror like’ is important because the angle of the sunshine is going to be no more than 23.44 degrees on average. At 80 north, it will vary during the day from 33.44 to 13.44 degrees at mid summer. At these angles, a flat water surface is a good reflector – indeed, at even greater angles a flat water surface is a good reflector. Think when you were last flying, the reflection of the sun in rivers, streams or lakes was dazzling. So, little heat will be absorbed from the sun’s radiation. What little is absorbed will be in the top very narrow layer, and that water will evaporate, thus cooling the surface.
In winter when the ice covers the sea, the surface is bitterly cold. In effect, the layer of ice acts as an insulator, keeping the heat from the – comparatively – warm water in the water under the ice. In summer, the insulating layer is removed, and the water can radiate heat – likely more than it receives.