The Week That Was: 2016-06-04 (June 4, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The Sun & Clouds: The UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) largely ignore Svensmark’s hypothesis that incoming high-energy cosmic rays, modulated by the sun, influence global climate by changing cloudiness. When the sun is active, the envelope of high-energy charged particles making up the solar wind (the heliosphere) expands in the solar system, reducing the high-energy cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere. Cloudiness decreases, resulting in warmer weather. When the sun is dormant, the heliosphere contracts, increasing the high-energy cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere. Cloudiness increases, resulting in cooler weather. According to reports, the major rationale for the IPCC, and others, for ignoring Svensmark’s hypothesis was that the forming of cloud droplets, thus clouds, required sulfur dioxide produced by human emissions and by volcanoes. Thus, according to the IPCC, until the industrial revolution, Svensmark’s hypothesis did not apply to climate change; but, in its recent analysis, the IPCC does not consider climate change until after the industrial revolution.
The rationale is strange for several reasons. One, contemporary 16th and 17th European records and paintings (such as those by Pieter Brueghel) show the Little Ice Age was cold and cloudy. Earlier, using tricks such as Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick in 2001, the IPCC has tried to dismiss the Little Ice Age as a local phenomenon, but evidence is compiling that it was global. Two, the reports of the IPCC asserting the dominant influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) focus on the period after the industrial revolution, particularly, the period after 1950. During this period there were significant human emissions of sulfur dioxide. The global climate models used by the IPCC consider that sulfur dioxide has a significant cooling effect (independent of cloudiness), partially off-setting the calculated warming effect of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases).
Thus, it appears that the IPCC, and its followers, only consider sulfur dioxide when it is convenient for their assertions – a strange approach to empirical science.
Researchers at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, performed experiments under the CLOUD program supporting Svensmark’s hypothesis. Now they have performed experiments showing that sulfur dioxide emissions from humans or volcanoes are not needed for water droplets to form – organic vapors emitted emissions from trees, and other vegetation, is sufficient to seed the formation of clouds. The observations that pure organic nucleation of water droplets to form clouds are supported by observations at the Jungfraujoch observatory as well. Interestingly, to some, the highly oxygenated molecules are known as the “aroma of the trees.”
It will be interesting to see how the IPCC and others in the Climate Establishment react to these experiments and observations. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, particularly the comments by Luboš Motl.
###################################################
Quote of the Week: “Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” Albert Einstein “The Curious History of Relativity”
###################################################
Number of the Week: Productivity of less than 1%
###################################################
No TWTW Next Week: Due to travel, there will be no TWTW next week. TWTW will resume on the weekend of June 18.
###################################################
The Sun & UV: Among those skeptical of the claim that adding a few molecules CO2 per 10,000 molecules of atmosphere will cause significant global warming/climate change; there has been a lively debate. Are the dominant natural changes from changes in the sun or changes in ocean circulations? (In addition to orbital changes.) On his web site, P Gosselin translates a recent review of papers by Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt on the influence of the sun, particularly Ultraviolet Radiation (UV) on atmospheric circulations, including the stratosphere, and, in turn, on ocean circulations. Much of the work is preliminary and statistical, and in need of empirical verification.
This type of work on the natural variations on influencing the earth’s climate is greatly needed. The IPCC does not consider the effects of variations in UV. Based on SEPP’s analysis, the vast bulk of government funding is going to supporting the Climate Establishment, and its claim that CO2, and other greenhouse gases, are the primary cause of global warming/climate change. Yet, the Climate Establishment cannot explain what caused the warming of the early part of the 20th century, from about 1910 to 1940, and chooses to ignore it. See links under Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
*******************
European Talks: During the week of May 23-28, SEPP Chairman Fred Singer gave invited talks on lunar origin and planetary exploration and on climate issues, at the Russian Institute for Space Studies (IKI) in Moscow and at the Physics Department at the University of Vienna, the oldest university in German-speaking Europe. SEPP President Ken Haapala gave talks on issues regarding climate science, climate models, and energy use at both institutions.
The talks were well-received and the discussions that followed were illuminating. Among the salient points was that the speakers were overly critical of the global climate models. As described in the May 21 TWTW, except for the Russian Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model, version 4.0 (INM-CM4), the models reviewed greatly overestimate the warming of the lower atmosphere, below 50,000 feet (15 km). This part of the atmosphere includes where the pronounced greenhouse effect occurs and where the “hot spot” showing an amplification of the greenhouse effect should occur. Further, it is below the region that is experiencing stratospheric cooling.
A comment asserting that the speakers were overly critical brought up that the mission of the IPCC was to estimate human influences on surface temperatures, and the modelers were trying to accomplish that mission. Herein is a critical issue. In its 2014 Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers, the IPCC does not discuss these limitations. It does discuss surface temperature change from 1951 to 2010, but the data are sparse (far from comprehensive), and the data is subject to many influences other than greenhouse gases, which the IPCC blames for global warming/climate change.
The IPCC gives no credible rationale for ignoring atmospheric temperature data, which are far more comprehensive, and measure where the greenhouse effect occurs. Yet, the UN is pushing to control greenhouse gas emissions while ignoring direct measurements of the effect of greenhouse gases – even though the data is publicly available! See link under Defending the Orthodoxy.
*******************
The Witch Hunt: The public battles between those who wish to investigate skeptics about the findings of the IPCC and the subjects of the investigations who claim they are defending the civil rights, namely free speech, continue. Some Republican senators on the Judiciary Committee have written to Attorney General Loretta Lynch to demand the US Department of Justice stop “its ongoing use of the law enforcement resources to stifle private debate on one of the most controversial public issues of our time – climate change.” The Justice Department has referred the matter to the FBI, which is subordinate to it.
One of the members of the Judiciary Committee is Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), who called for the investigation. One can wonder if Senator Whitehouse realizes that the global warming fear is based on inferior surface data, that in a fiduciary capacity, could be called substandard or sub-prime? See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
*******************
Runaway Venus: A difficult myth often faced by skeptics is the claim that the planet Venus is an example of a runaway greenhouse effect, even though the atmospheric pressure at the surface of Venus is more than 90 times that of the earth. Often, people do not understand the influence of pressure on temperatures as described by the ideal gas law. In discussing Scientism, Willie Soon and Istvan Marko bring up excellent comments by physicist Will Happer on the differences between Venus and the Earth. To make one point, Happer uses the analogy of a diesel engine. Unlike a gasoline engine, a diesel engine does not require a spark plug or an ignition system.
In a normal gasoline engine, after the fuel-air mixture is compressed to 6 to 10 atmospheres, a spark ignites the mixture. In a diesel engine the compression is far greater, between 14 to 23 atmospheres. The compression heats the air sufficiently to ignite the fuel when it is injected into it. Depending on the fuel, it may require a temperature of 210 to 260ºC (410 to 500ºF). At over 90 atmospheres, no wonder Venus surface is hot. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Wind Speeds: A blog post discussing the decision by the US Department of Energy to withdraw $40 million in funding of the Virginia Offshore Wind Technology Advancement Project (VOWTAP) mentioned that the utility, Dominion Virginia Power, had hoped to build wind turbines capable of withstanding Category 3 hurricanes winds, which are considerably stronger than the winds for which the wind farms in Europe are designed.
According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Category 3 storms have wind speeds of 111-129 mph (178-208km/h) and are not infrequent off the coast of Virginia. Yet, in the discussion of Offshore Wind Energy, by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, US Department of Interior, there were many studies of environmental effects of off-shore electricity generation but no studies on the ability of off-shore wind farms to handle moderate to severe hurricanes. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
*******************
Energy Return on Energy Invested: Euan Mearns has a straightforward discussion on Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI or EROI), which is an estimate of the efficiency of any energy gathering or generating system. The concept came from ecology but can be applied to proposed systems of gathering or generating energy, particularly electricity. Traditional systems, such as hydropower, nuclear, and fossil fuels, are quite efficient. But with many other different types of energy schemes, estimates of their efficiency becomes important. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US
*******************
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The four past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, and Ernest Moniz are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 1. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 9 in Omaha.
*******************
Number of the Week: Productivity of less than 1%. Much was made over the announcement on May 25 that in 2015 more people are employed in US solar energy than in oil and natural gas extraction. Writing in Watts Up With That?, David Middleton uses reports from Bloomberg, BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to analyze the employment in units of “millions of tonnes of oil equivalent” (MTOE) of energy produced. He uses 2014 data which is more complete than 2015 data. His conclusion is that in MTOEs, the average worker in the solar industry is less than 1% as productive as the average oil and gas employee.
###################################################
ARTICLES: The Articles section is now at the bottom of TWTW.
###################################################
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
New Science 25: Seven possible ways the sun could change our cloud cover
By David Evans and Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 2, 2016
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Solar Denialists Face Harsh Times …Flurry of New Studies, CERN, Show Sun’s Massive Impact On Global Climate
Heavenly Teamwork: How UV Radiation Above The Stratosphere Impacts Climate At The Earth’s Surface
By Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, May 28, 2016
Link to paper: Lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to solar ultraviolet variations on intraseasonal time scales
By L.L. Hood, Geophysical Research Letters, Apr 28, 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068855/abstract?campaign=wolacceptedarticle
Censorship
What New Scientist wouldn’t print
By Andrews Montford, Bishop Hill, June 3, 2016
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2016/6/3/what-new-scientist-wouldnt-print.html
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt
California Senate sidelines bill to prosecute climate change skeptics
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, June 2, 2016
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/2/calif-bill-prosecutes-climate-change-skeptics/
Defcon1 Legal Threat: California’s near miss on new laws to jail climate skeptics
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 3, 2016
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Senators to Loretta Lynch: No, You Cannot Punish Climate Change “Deniers
By Katie Pavtich, Townhall, May 26, 2016
Letter from Senators Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions, David Perdue, David Vitter, May 25, 2016
http://www.cruz.senate.gov/files/documents/Letters/20160526_ClimateChangeLetter.pdf
Climate spin: Behind-the-scenes emails show profs evading questions
By Maxim Lott, Fox News, June 1, 2016
GOP senators complain to DOJ over push to ‘stifle’ climate debate
By Doug McKelway, Fox, May 28, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Media Denial of Climate Change Thuggery
By Gayle Trotter, Mediaite, May 22, 2016
http://www.mediaite.com/online/media-denial-of-climate-change-thuggery/
“The strategy seeks to replicate the successful shakedown of tobacco companies in the 1990s, which brought a $200 billion windfall that lined the pockets of plaintiffs’ lawyers, public relations firms and other rent-seekers who realized significant personal benefits with negligible benefits to public health.”
Misuse of The Law; Another Battle in the Climate Wars.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, May 24, 2016
http://drtimball.com/2016/misuse-of-the-law-another-battle-in-the-climate-wars/
“In war, truth is the first casualty.” Aeschylus (525 BC – 456 BC)
More FOI follies from the George Mason University #RICO20 train wreck: Edward Maibach, ‘legal gymnast’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 26, 2016
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
CERN experiment points to a cloudier pre-industrial climate
Press Release, CERN, May 25,2016
CLOUD@CERN: global warming may have been due to decreasing aroma from trees
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, May 25, 2016
http://motls.blogspot.de/2016/05/cloudcern-global-warming-may-have-been.html
The lesson for “global warming” seems clear: deforestation may decrease the amount of aroma from the trees, and therefore the amount of clouds, and it may therefore lead to global warming.
Though Media Refuse To Admit, CERN Results Vastly Strengthen Svensmark’s Cosmic Ray-Climate Theory
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 30, 2016
The cloud-climate conundrum
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. June 2, 2016
https://judithcurry.com/2016/06/02/the-cloud-climate-conundrum/#more-21607
Major Setback for the Climatistas
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, May 27, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/05/major-setback-for-the-climatistas.php
“Some background: Up to this point, climate scientists—and more importantly their models—assumed, without any empirical evidence, that there were fewer clouds in the pre-industrial era before the slight warming trend of the last 200 years began.”
These scientists made their own clouds, and what they found could require us to rethink how fast the earth is warming
By Ali Sundermier, Business Insider, May 25, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-climate-change-study-about-clouds-2016-5
A Major Malaise of Climatology is Pervasive in Science
Guest Opinion; Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, May 29, 2016
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/29/a-major-malaise-of-climatology-is-pervasive-in-science/
3 New Studies: Earth’s Climate Not Warming That Fast
By Greg Richter, Newsmax, May 30, 2016
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/earth-climate-not-warming/2016/05/30/id/731414/
Another Potential Reason Why Climate Sensitivity is Over-Estimated
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 2, 2016
Another climate model paper in Nature misses a whole class of feedbacks
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 27, 2016
Link to paper: Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth
By Davy & Esau, Nature Communications, May 25, 2016
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160525/ncomms11690/full/ncomms11690.html
Cherry Picking in Climate Studies
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, May 25, 2016
http://drtimball.com/2016/cherry-picking-in-climate-studies/
“that you had to pick cherries if you want to make cherry pie.”
[SEPP Comment: Some detail on IPCC shenanigans.]
No significant increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite significant increase in air temperature
By Sweeney, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, June 1, 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069292/full
“The lack of significant long-term trends suggests more complex biogeochemical processes are counteracting the observed short-term (monthly) temperature sensitivity of 5.0 ± 3.6 ppb CH4/°C.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers
By Staff Writers, IPCC, 2014
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
New Tars Sands Impact on Air Pollution Found
Scientists discover yet more aerosols emanating from oil sands production
By Bobby Magill, Scientific American, from Climate Central, May 25, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-tars-sands-impact-on-air-pollution-found/
[SEPP Comment: Unable to link to paper.]
Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Update to the Strategic Plan Document
Press Release, National Academies Press,
Scientists just discovered dozens of new sources of air pollution
By Chelsea Harvey, Washington Post, May 31, 2016
Space-based detection of missing sulfur dioxide sources of global air pollution
By McLinden, et al. Nature Geoscience, May 30, 2016
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2724.html
“We find that of the 500 or so large sources in our inventory, nearly 40 are not captured in leading conventional inventories. These missing sources are scattered throughout the developing world—over a third are clustered around the Persian Gulf—and add up to 7 to 14 Tg of SO2 yr−1, or roughly 6–12% of the global anthropogenic source.”
[SEPP Comment: Is this disguising the “missing heat?”]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Modern Debacle Of Wasted Trillions. Consensus: Efforts To Prevent Climate Change “Will Almost Surely Fail!
Scientific Consensus: “Efforts to curtail world temps will almost surely fail”
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 2, 2016
Bill Nye and Scientism
By Willie Soon and Istvan Mako, Breitbart, May 24, 2016
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/05/24/bill-nye-scientism/
Three Facts Prove Climate Alarm Is a Scam
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, May 31, 2016
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/climate-global-warming-ipcc/2016/05/31/id/731497/
You Ought to Have a Look: Smoke, Clouds and Snowfall
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, May 27, 2016
http://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-smoke-clouds-snowfall
Introducing the global warming speedometer
A single devastating graph shows official climate predictions were wild
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, May 25, 2016
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/25/introducing-the-global-warming-speedometer/
Study Shows Those Who Claimed ‘Climate Debate Over’ Were Wrong
By David Kreutzer, Daily Signal, May 27, 2016
http://dailysignal.com/2016/05/27/study-shows-those-who-claimed-climate-debate-over-were-wrong/
After Paris!
Russia Throws a Wrench in Paris Climate Ratification
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, May 26, 2016
The Administration’s Plan
Obama Raided $500M for Zika to Finance UN’s Green Climate Fund
By Sen James Lankford (Oklahoma), Daily Signal, May 23, 2016
http://dailysignal.com/2016/05/23/obama-raided-500m-for-zika-to-finance-uns-green-climate-fund/
[SEPP Comment: Earlier it was reported that the $500,000,000 came largely from economic development funds.]
UN to Trump: Climate deal is critical to saving planet
By Staff Writers, AFP, Daily Mail, May 27, 2016
“The administration of President Barack Obama plans to ratify the Paris accord with an executive agreement, bypassing the Senate and setting up a complex and difficult process for any future president wishing to pull out.”
EIA: US carbon emissions to depend on Clean Power Plan
By Staff Writers, WNN, May 19, 2016
The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
Collision of Mileage Regulations and Technology
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 31, 2016
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/05/31/collision-of-mileage-regulations-and-technology/
[SEPP Comment: No doubt the US Global Change Research Program will scrupulously reduce the benefits of auto fuel regulations to include the new lower costs of gasoline.]
Obama’s former Assistant Energy Secretary Charles McConnell and senators attack Obama Energy Plans
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, May 27, 2016
Social Benefits of Carbon
Elevated CO2 and Temperature Enhance the Grain Yield and Quality of Rice
By Craig Idso, Cato, June 2, 2016
http://www.cato.org/blog/elevated-co2-temperature-enhance-grain-yield-quality-rice
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Global-Warming Alarmists, You’re Doing It Wrong
By Megan McArdle, Bloomberg, June 1, 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-01/global-warming-alarmists-you-re-doing-it-wrong
[SEPP Comment: Think like an economist?]
Seeking a Common Ground
Nullius in verba
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, June 3, 2016
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/1001
“Non-scientists often think that scientists deal in facts and certainties, but this is a misrepresentation. All the evidence may support a certain hypothesis, but this can in principle be called into question by a single reliable and reproducible observation.”
“The truth about climate change will continue to evolve and be the subject of intense debate for many years yet. Scientists have a central role in collecting and assessing the evidence for particular hypotheses. Such controversy should be encouraged rather than effectively banned.”
Link to paper: Lessons from technology development for energy and sustainability
By M.J. Kelly, MRS Energy & Sustainability, May 2016
The Republic of Science
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 30, 2016
https://judithcurry.com/2016/05/30/the-republic-of-science/
“The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it. – Michael Polanyi (1962)”
How and Why Scientists Fudge Results, and What We Can Do About It
By Charles White, Huffington Post, May 23, 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles-white/how-and-why-scientists-fu_b_10106104.html?yptr=yahoo
[SEPP Comment: Questionable practices include selectively reporting hypotheses and excluding data that do not support the hypothesis.]
Is much of our effort to combat global warming actually making things worse?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 23, 2016
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
How Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Impact a Benthic Foraminifer (single-celled protists with shells)
Wit, J.C., Davis, M.M., McCorkle, D.C. and Bernhard, J.M. 2016. A Short-term Survival Experiment Assessing Impacts of Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia on the Benthic Foraminifer Globobulimina Turgida. Journal of Foraminiferal Research 46: 25-33. June 3, 2016
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/jun/a2.php
Upper Atmosphere Temperature Trends Models vs Measurements
Zhao, L., Xu, J., Powell, A.M., Jiang, Z. and Wang, D. 2016. Use of SSU/MSU Satellite Observations to Validate Upper Atmospheric Temperature Trends in CMIP5 Simulations. Remote Sensing 8: 10.3390/rs8010013., June 1, 2016
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/jun/a1.php
Dying from Heat and Cold Which Extreme is the More Deadly
Seltenrich, N. 2015. Between Extremes: Health Effects of Heat and Cold. Environmental Health Perspectives 123: A276-A280. May 27, 2016
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/may/a20.php
“And, therefore, since Donat et al. (2013) report that ‘globally averaged minimum temperature extremes are warming faster than maximum temperature extremes,’ it would appear that current global warming is actually helping to reduce the yearly number of temperature-related deaths. Yet, somehow, this good news never seems to get reported in the media.”
Models v. Observations
Current atmospheric models underestimate the dirtiness of Arctic air
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 25, 2016
Model Issues
Climate Models Don’t Work
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, May 25, 2016
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/25/climate-models-dont-work/
The Truth Warming Alarmists Don’t Want You To Know About The Climate Models
By Kerry Jackson, IBD, May 25, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
“The global warming alarmists tell us to trust the science. But when it comes to climate studies, there’s less science and more accounting going on there.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
May 2016 ENSO Update – The 2015/16 El Niño Has Reached Its End
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, WUWT, May 30, 2016
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/30/may-2016-enso-update-the-201516-el-nino-has-reached-its-end/
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2016: +0.55 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 1, 2016
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2016-0-55-deg-c/
Link to UAH global report for May: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
[SEPP Comment: With the diminishing El Niño, atmospheric temperatures are falling. The question remains: how low will they go before they roughly stabilize?]
Changing Weather
Ocean temps predict U.S. heat waves 50 days out, study finds
By Staff Wriers, AtmosNews, NCAR/UCAR, Mar 28, 2016
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/20160/ocean-temps-predict-us-heat-waves-50-days-out-study-finds
Link to paper: Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures
By McKinnon, Rhines, Tingley, & Huybers, Nature Geoscience, Mar 28, 2016
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n5/full/ngeo2687.html
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
National Hurricane Center, NOAA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Changing Climate
Body Of Proof: Large Number Of Studies Show Medieval Warm Period “Prominent In Southern Hemisphere”
Charting the Medieval Warm Period In The Southern Hemisphere
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, May 31, 2016
Boreal spring precipitation variability in the cold arid western Himalaya during the last millennium, regional linkages, and socio-economic implications
By Yadavaa, Bräuningb, Singhc, & Yadava, Quaternary Science Reviews, July 15, 2016 [H/t Climate Etc.]
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116301457
Study: UHI affects the urban growing season
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 26, 2016
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/26/study-uhi-affects-the-urban-growing-season/
Changing Seas
Great Barrier Reef: scientists ‘exaggerated’ coral bleaching
By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Skeptics, June 4, 2016
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/great-barrier-reef-scientists.html
Link to report: The facts on Great Barrier Reef coral mortality
By Staff Writers, The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) and the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), June 3, 2016
Coral bleaching debate
By Jim Steele, Climate Etc. May 24, 2016
https://judithcurry.com/2016/05/24/coral-bleaching-debate/#more-21572
“A good summary statement is provided by Baker et al. ‘flexibility in coral–algal symbiosis is likely to be a principal factor underlying the evolutionary success of these organisms’”.
2015 Updated NOAA Tide Gauge Data Shows No Coastal Sea Level Rise Acceleration
Guest essay by Larry Hamblin, WUWT, May 28, 2016
Link to NOAA Tides and Currents
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_us.htm
Met Office: Gulf Stream Slowdown Due To Nature Not Climate Change
By Staff Writers, Reporting Climate Science, May 27, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/27/gulf-stream/
Link to paper: Recent slowing of Atlantic overturning circulation as a recovery from earlier strengthening
By Jackson, Peterson, Roberts, & Wood, Nature Geoscience, May 23, 2016
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2715.html
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Study Helps Explain Sea Ice Differences at Earth’s Poles
Press Release, By Staff Writers, NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, CA Instituted of Technology, May 20, 2016
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6516
Nature – finally “finds” cause of Antarctic pause, will last centuries, tosses “global warming” out
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 31, 2016
Link to paper: Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport
By Armour, et al. Nature Geoscience, May 30, 2016
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2731.html
“Old water”: The latest explanation for the Antarctic Ice Anomaly
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 31, 2016
Antarctic Climate Confusion
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, May 30, 2016
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/05/30/antarctic-climate-confusion/
“That upwelling helps explain why the surface of the Southern Ocean have warmed by just 0.02 degree Celsius (0.036 Fahrenheit) per decade since 1950, a fraction of the global average of 0.08 degree (0.144F), the study said.”
Arctic sea ice loss likely not a factor in recent Northern Hemisphere cold winters, study finds
By Karlin Vergoth, GeoSpace, May 31, 2016 [H/t Climate Etc.]
“Arctic sea ice loss warms the usually frigid air masses that occasionally invade midlatitudes, reducing daily temperature variability in those regions and making cold outbreaks less common.”
Masato Mori’s Harsh Winter/Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Hypothesis Flops, Brand New Study Shows!
Flopped hypothesis: Cold winters not the consequence of shrinking Arctic sea ice
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning und Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, June 1, 2016
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Glyphosate under pressure
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, May 27, 2016
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/1000
[SEPP Comment: The continuing attack of the herbicide generally known as Roundup.]
Lowering Standards
Climate Scientists as Activists
The pursuit of global political solutions to climate change is not for the faint of heart—but it is a matter of civic responsibility.
By Steven Ghan, EOS, June 2, 2016 [H/t Climate Etc.]
https://eos.org/editors-vox/climate-scientists-as-activists
[SEPP Comment: The Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, ignores the fact that James Hansen’s predictions have failed and that many advocates ignore vital data – atmospheric temperatures.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Arctic Ocean methane does not reach the atmosphere
By Staff Writers, Oslo, Norway (SPX), May 31, 2016
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Arctic_Ocean_methane_does_not_reach_the_atmosphere_999.html
“Since methane is the most important greenhouse gas after CO2, it is very important to explore why.”
[SEPP Comment: Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas.]
Five trillion is a red line. Cross it and the environment crashes!
By Larry Kummer. Fabius Maximus, May 28, 2016 [H/t WUWT]
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/05/28/five-trillion-reasons-to-worry-about-the-environment-97085/
Release the Kraken
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, May 24, 2016
http://www.cato.org/blog/release-kraken
“No doubt, the outcome will be a complex one as is the case behind the observed population increases. Depletion of fish stocks, a release of competitive pressure, and good old-fashioned natural environmental variability, are also suggested as potential factors in the long-term population expansion. But complex situations don’t make for great scare stories. Global-warming-fueled bands of marauding octopuses and giant squid certainly do.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Naomi Oreskes Warps History
By Ron Arnold, Left Exposed, June 1, 2016
http://leftexposed.org/2016/06/naomi-oreskes-warps-history/
[SEPP Comment: More examples of making up facts. In general, TWTW does not link to such personal articles; however, in their unsubstantiated personal attacks on SEPP Chairman Fred Singer and past Chairman the late Fredrick Seitz, Oreskes and Conway earned an exception to the general rule.]
Questioning European Green
Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists: No Illusions about Germany’s “Energy Turnaround”
By Marlo Lewis, CEI, May 24, 2016
https://cei.org/blog/bulletin-atomic-scientists-no-illusions-about-germanys-energy-turnaround
Link to article: Germany’s Energiewende: The intermittency problem remains
By Christine Sturm, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 20, 2016
Germany’s Volatile Power Grid Spinning Dangerously Out Of Control …Prices Go Negative 25 Times In 2015!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 21, 2016
The Capital Cost of Solar Photovoltaic
By Staff Writers, GWPF, May 29, 2016
http://www.thegwpf.com/the-capital-cost-of-solar-photovoltaic
Link to report: Solar PV cost data
Official Statistics, UK Government, Department of Energy & Climate Change, May 26, 2016
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-pv-cost-data
[SEPP Comment: Questioning the subsidies.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Energy Doesn’t Work Without Energy Storage That Doesn’t Exist Yet
By Andrew Follett, Daily Caller, May 29, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Includes link to “World’s most powerful battery energy storage” in Fairbanks Alaska. (46 MW for 5 minutes).]
Japan developers may cancel 70% of solar on rules, BNEF says
By Staff Writers, The Business Times, May 27, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
The Incoherence of Sustainability
Drive to subsidize renewable energy distorts the realities of market forces and technological advances.
By Benjamin Zycher, US News, May 25, 2016
[SEPP Comment: The market system is not perfect, but it tends to be less wasteful than politicians and bureaucrats.]
You Ought to Have a Look: Ontario’s Energy Plan, Evidence-based Policy and a New Climate Sensitivity Estimate
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, May 25, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Includes updated chart on equilibrium climate sensitivity.]
Green Jobs
“Clean-Energy Jobs Surpass Oil Drilling for First Time in U.S.” So what?
Guest post by David Middleton, WUWT, May 26, 2016
“The fact that the United States leads the world in oil & gas production is a bit more significant than the fact that the typical solar industry worker is less than 1% as productive as the typical oil & gas employee.”
The revealing numbers on solar employment in the USA.
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, June 1, 2016
http://euanmearns.com/the-revealing-numbers-on-solar-employment-in-the-usa/#more-14129
Funding Issues
U.S. Congress Aims to Cut Climate Science
Proposed cuts to NOAA and NASA target climate change research in particular
By Gayathri Vaidyanathan, ClimateWire, Via Scientific American, June 2, 2016
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-congress-aims-to-cut-climate-science/
The Political Games Continue
It is Increasingly Clear that the Presidential Election Will Determine the Outcome of the Climate Debate
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, June 3, 2016
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2733
Litigation Issues
SCOTUS hands down a property rights victory
By Thomas Lifson, American Thinker, June 1, 2016
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/scotus_hands_down_a_property_rights_victory.html
[SEPP Comment: For years a favorite tactic of regulatory agencies has been to “slow-roll” the permitting, hoping to exhaust those seeking approvals.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Rooftop solar: Net metering is a net benefit
By: Mark Muro and Devashree Saha, Brookings, May 23, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
“Utilities should have a shot at fair revenues and adequate ratepayers. Solar customers and providers have a right to cost-effective, reliable access to the grid. And the broader public should be able to expect a continued solar power boom in U.S. regions as well as accelerated decarbonization of state economies.”
[SEPP Comments: Another study ignoring the eventual costs to the consumer of mandates and subsidies.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The magic of the EPA’s benefit/cost analysis
By Benjamin Zycher, The Hill, June 3, 2016
[SEPP Comment: According to the EPA, one miniscule (unmeasurably small) benefit plus another miniscule benefit is worth $100 Billion!]
IG: EPA Still Blocking Access to Investigations Agency ‘continues to impede’ access
By Elizabeth Harrington, Washington Free Beacon, June 1, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://freebeacon.com/issues/ig-epa-blocking-investigations/
Energy Issues – Non-US
ERoEI for Beginners
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, May 25, 2016
http://euanmearns.com/eroei-for-beginners/
The Energy Return of The Three Gorges Dam
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, June 3, 2016
http://euanmearns.com/the-energy-return-of-the-three-gorges-dam/#more-14133
[SEPP Comment: The very rough calculation shows a very high return on energy invested.]
Old world oil order collapses as OPEC struggles for relevance
By Jeremy Warner, Telegraph, UK, June 2, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Somewhat extreme, but the world oil markets have changed with hydraulic fracturing.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Don’t Doubt the Strength of U.S. Shale
By Staff Writers, American Interest, May 24, 2016
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/05/24/dont-doubt-the-strength-of-u-s-shale/
‘Foolish’ refusal to back fracking will cost Scotland thousands of jobs, says MSP
By Gareth McPherson, The Courier, UK, May 30, 2016
“Unless it can be proven beyond doubt that there is no risk to health, communities or the environment, there will be no fracking or UCG (underground coal gasification) extraction in Scotland,” she said. [a spokeswoman for the new minister for business and energy. Boldface added.]
[SEPP Comment: Establishing an impossible standard].
Return of King Coal?
Changing the climate on fossil fuels
Rather than the problem, coal is the solution
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Times, May 30, 2016
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/30/anthony-j-sadar-changing-the-climate-on-fossil-fue/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Compact tokamaks: the approach to bring fusion energy within reach
By David Kinghan, CEO of Tokamak Energy, WNN, May 31, 2016
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
A Really Big Wind Boondoggle
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, June 3, 2016
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/06/03/a-really-big-wind-boondoggle/
Offshore Wind Arrives in U.S. Waters
By the end of this year, the nation’s first offshore wind farm should begin generating electricity
By Daniel Cusick, ClimateWire, Via Scientific American, May 31, 2016
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/offshore-wind-arrives-in-u-s-waters/
[SEPP Comment: For a frank financial assessment see link immediately above.]
A Major Setback for Virginia Off Shore Wind
By James Bacon, Bacon’s Rebellion, May 27, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.baconsrebellion.com/2016/05/a-major-blow-to-virginia-offshore-wind.html
Offshore Wind Energy
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, (US Department of Interior), Accessed June 4, 2016
http://www.boem.gov/Renewable-Energy-Program/Renewable-Energy-Guide/Offshore-Wind-Energy.aspx
AWED Energy & Environmental Newsletter: May 31, 2016
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, May 31, 2016
Solar Energy’s Real Problem
By Ryan Yonk and Devin Stein, American Thinker, May 26, 2016
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/05/solar_energys_real_problem.html
[SEPP Comment: Ivanpah solar plant cannot meet minimum performance standards.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
World’s first grid-connected tidal array almost complete
“OpenHydro, DCNS and EDF have worked hand in hand to deliver this milestone,” said OpenHydro CEO James Ives.
By Brooks Hays, UPI, May 31, 2016
Why Waste Food To Replace Something We Already Have Too Much Of?
By Marita Noon, Oil Pro, May 24, 2016
http://oilpro.com/post/24609/why-waste-food-to-replace-something-we-already-have-too-much
[SEPP Comment: Sufficient oil would be more accurate than too much oil.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
We need to defeat one particular mosquito before it gets us
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, June 3, 2016
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/zika-and-mosquitoes/
Oh Mann!
Mark Steyn files to push Mann trial forward
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 2, 2016
http://joannenova.com.au/2016/06/mark-steyn-files-to-push-mann-trial-forward/
Environmental Industry
Georgia lawsuit claims Greenpeace ‘is a global fraud’
By Carla Caldwell, Atlanta Business Chronicle, June 1, 2016 [H/t Jim Rust]
The Name Game: How Unethical Environmental Groups and Toxic Fanatics Scare You With Words
By Staff Writers, ACSH, May 27, 2016
Link to pdf: The Name Game
By Josh Bloom, ACSH,
http://acsh.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/ACSH_NameGame_Web_20160525.pdf
Other Scientific News / Issues
Hydrothermal vents, methane seeps play enormous role in marine life, global climate
By Staff Writers, Corvallis OR (SPX), Jun 01, 2016
Link to paper: Hydrothermal Vents and Methane Seeps: Rethinking the Sphere of Influence
By Levin, et al, Frontiers in Marine Science, May 19, 2016
http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2016.00072/full
New Paper: Catastrophes of the 21st Century
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, May 24, 2016 [H/t Climate Etc.]
https://rogerpielkejr.com/2016/05/24/new-paper-catastrophes-of-the-21st-century/
“There are few ways to better display our ignorance than by speculating on the long-term future.”
Antarctic fossils reveal south was not safer during dinosaur extinction
By Staff Writers, Leeds, UK (SPX), May 27, 2016
Compulsory Courses for Any Curriculum; The Science Dilemma
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, May 25, 2016
http://drtimball.com/2016/compulsory-courses-for-any-curriculum-the-science-dilemma/
In dramatic statement, European leaders call for ‘immediate’ open access to all scientific papers by 2020
By Martin Enserink, Science, May 27, 2016 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
What Organic and Chemical Actually Mean: A Glossary of Hijacked Terms
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, May 24, 2016
Other News that May Be of Interest
Most Weather-Related Wildland Firefigher Deaths Can Be Prevented: Here’s How.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 23, 2016
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-weather-related-wildland.html
[SEPP Comment: Communications, solid weather forecasts, and no heroics to save remote buildings.]
Washington State is Losing Its Signature Views. Can We Restore Them?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 30, 2016
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/05/washington-state-is-losing-its.html
[SEPP Comment: Also, many once great viewing areas in the Appalachian Mountains have been lost due to tree growth.]
###################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Scientists find evidence of global warming on Mars
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, May 31, 2016
[SEPP Comment: From your SUV?]
Your planet needs you!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, May 31, 2016
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/6286
“David McKnight (“Climate change at the helm of Labor’s next big idea”, April 23) rightly points out that preventing climate change will depend on stopping business as usual, and that this will also mean stopping politics as usual.
This will require us to accept that unabated climate change is an existential and relatively imminent threat – something akin to a war.
Sydney Morning Herald, 26 Apr 2008 – screen copy held by this website”
###################################################
ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. California’s Cap-and-Trade Bubble
The carbon-credit market sputters, as it also has in Europe.
Editorial, WSJ, May 30, 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/californias-cap-and-trade-bubble-1464643546
The editorial states: “When carbon cap and trade flopped in Europe, liberals blamed design flaws and hailed California’s embryonic program as a better regulatory model. But cap and tax is struggling in the Golden State too.
“A mere 2% of the carbon emissions credits that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) put up for auction in May were sold. The quarterly auction raised only $10 million of the $500 million that CARB projected. That’s awful news for Democrats in Sacramento who planned to spend the windfall on high-speed rail, housing and electric-car subsidies.
“Each year, CARB ratchets down the statewide emissions cap. Most energy-intensive businesses including refiners, manufacturers and fuel suppliers must cut their carbon output or buy credits for exceeding the cap.
“In 2005 the European Union launched its Emissions Trading System, which the Obama Administration and even some Republicans hoped to copy before Rust Belt Democrats revolted. Europe’s cap-and-trade bubble has since burst as sluggish economic growth and heavily subsidized renewables have produced a glut of credits. By 2013 the roughly €30 price per ton that was putatively needed to reduce use of coal had plummeted to a few euros. Politicians have been reluctant to withdraw credits to prop up the price because they don’t want to handicap struggling businesses. Regulatory uncertainty has amplified price fluctuations.
“As Europe went, so heads California. CARB’s auctions kicked off in 2012 with robust demand and have raised nearly $5 billion. But demand has shrunk this year amid regulatory and legal risks. The California Chamber of Commerce has challenged the auctions as an illegal tax that CARB imposed without the constitutionally required two-thirds vote of the legislature.
“Cap-and-trade revenues are supposed to fund only projects that reduce emissions, and the state Legislative Analyst’s Office has questioned whether the funding recipients are doing so. For instance, the bullet train will release more carbon over the next three decades.
“The legislature will likely also have to reauthorize cap and trade beyond its 2020 expiration date, and many Democrats will want changes. In 2014, 16 Assembly Democrats exhorted CARB to exempt transportation fuels. CARB estimates that cap and trade increases the price of gasoline by about 12 cents per gallon.
“While a Sacramento superior court has upheld the program, an appellate court last month appeared more skeptical. Traders who hoped to flip allowances at a higher price have since been offloading credits and undercutting CARB’s auction floor.
In 2014 then Senate President Darrell Steinberg warned that cap and trade was ‘asking the trading market to enter directly into the energy segment again and that brings back bad memories’ of rolling blackouts and electricity price spikes last decade. Reading Europe’s tarot cards, he told the Los Angeles Times that ‘this is an experiment that is yet unproven.’
CARB says this spring’s auction bust is no big deal and regulators can withhold credits until the price rises. Unlike their European counterparts, California’s climate crusaders don’t seem to care if their businesses and consumers suffer.
###################################################
“organic vapors emitted emissions from trees, and other vegetation, is sufficient to seed the formation of clouds. ” …..One too many ” Emits” ????
‘In dramatic statement, European leaders call for ‘immediate’ open access to all scientific papers by 2020’
Clever! Assault intellectual property rights just before the Brexit vote.
But only allow (er, require) access to the papers 4 years from now… When the propaganda (er, press releases) can circulate unhinged and unchallenged for 4 years to ensure more hype and more funding between 2016 and 2020.
“Thus, it appears that the IPCC, and its followers, only consider sulfur dioxide when it is convenient for their assertions – a strange approach to empirical science.”
Often in WUWT threads one reads Richard Feynman’s name invoked to lend credence to essentials of scientific method, such as empiricism trumping theory, or to mock instances of cargo-cult science. Yet, one of Feynman’s most astute observations, and one that has innumerable applications to science activism and to Global Warming in particular, seems to be unknown. In Volume II 34-6 of his famous “Lectures in Physics”, which concludes a discussion of classical theories of para- and diamagnetism, he states that if one does not take an explanation using classical mechanics to its conclusion, one can prove almost anything. More generally I apply it to all theories and explanations, and always keep it in mind when reading “just so” explanations that stop at exactly a desired result. I view it as a basic tool of scientific skepticism.
“To make one point, Happer uses the analogy of a diesel engine… In a diesel engine the compression is far greater, between 14 to 23 atmospheres. The compression heats the air sufficiently to ignite the fuel when it is injected into it. Depending on the fuel, it may require a temperature of 210 to 260ºC (410 to 500ºF). At over 90 atmospheres, no wonder Venus surface is hot.”
What Happer doesn’t say is the compression happens in 0.015 sec and the hot gas expands again in 0.015 sec. What happens if you keep it compressed for one year? It cools back to ambient temperature as the engine block is not a perfect heat insulator. The atmosphere of Venus has been compressed for billions of years. It should have cooled by radiating heat to space. Why is it still hot? Because it is not very efficient in radiating heat to space. That 96% of its atmosphere is CO2 has something to do with it. And of course solar insolation. By the way, the temperature in the compression stroke of diesel engine is about 700 C.
That 700 C is hotter than 460 C of Venus surface temperature
I agree that Happer’s statement is very strange, and may be, in fact, part of a larger thought garbled in translation by a journalist. There is no one-to-one correspondence of temperature to pressure (except in the case of 2-phase equilibrium). As you point out, what matters is the process path involved.
…The heat input created by the combustion ENDS after after 0.030 seconds…The Suns heat input is continuous for billions of years ! Apples to Oranges….
Without CO2 and solar insolation (assuming a non-greenhouse gas atmosphere at 460 C and 92 bars) Venus would cool to 0 C in just 24 years. I calculated it from Stefan-Boltzmann law and the ideal gas law, layer by layer of Venus atmosphere from surface to 55 km altitude.
If we put back the sun but take out CO2, Venus would cool down to -41 C in 49 years. It’s colder than earth because the solar insolation on Venus is only 165 W/m^2 vs. 239 W/m^2 on earth. This is due to high albedo of Venus. So it’s really CO2 that’s keeping Venus hotter than an oven instead of colder than a freezer.
ERoEI is only marginally useful. I suppose it helps quantify the energy intensity of first costs. But recurring costs dominate many systems and are always ERoEI<1, because all methods of energy conversion contain irreversibilities. What really matters is what availability is provided per unit of energy used, and also the utility of energy in final form. For example, it makes sense to convert coal to electricity even though the process is only about 40% efficient because electricity is very useful and easy to transport compared to coal. Our use of energy is far too complex to capture with single measures.