From the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON and the “lets study science fiction by using climate model fiction” department.
Could ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ happen?
A researcher from the University of Southampton has produced a scientific study of the climate scenario featured in the disaster movie ‘The Day After Tomorrow’.
In the 2004 film, climate warming caused an abrupt collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), leading to catastrophic events such as tornados destroying Los Angeles, New York being flooded and the northern hemisphere freezing.
Although the scientific credibility of the film drew criticism from climate scientists, the scenario of an abrupt collapse of the AMOC, as a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse warming, was never assessed with a state-of-the-art climate model.
Using the German climate model ECHAM at the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg, Professor Sybren Drijfhout from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton found that, for a period of 20 years, the earth will cool instead of warm if global warming and a collapse of the AMOC occur simultaneously. Thereafter, global warming continues as if the AMOC never collapsed, but with a globally averaged temperature offset of about 0.8°C.
Professor Drijfhout said: “The planet earth recovers from the AMOC collapse in about 40 years when global warming continues at present-day rates, but near the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic (including the British Isles) it takes more than a century before temperature is back to normal.”
Interestingly, the effect of atmospheric cooling due to an AMOC collapse is associated with heat flow from the atmosphere into the ocean, which has been witnessed during the climate hiatus of the last 15 years.
Professor Drijfhout added: “When a similar cooling or reduced heating is caused by volcanic eruptions or decreasing greenhouse emissions the heat flow is reversed, from the ocean into the atmosphere. A similar reversal of energy flow is also visible at the top of the atmosphere. These very different fingerprints in energy flow between atmospheric radiative forcing and internal ocean circulation processes make it possible to attribute the cause of a climate hiatus period.”
However, the study, which appears in Scientific Reports, says that the recent period of very weak warming cannot be attributed to one single cause. Most probably El Niño plays a role and possibly also changes in the Southern Ocean due to shifting and increasing westerlies.
Professor Sybren said: “It can be excluded, however, that this hiatus period was solely caused by changes in atmospheric forcing, either due to volcanic eruptions, more aerosols emissions in Asia, or reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in ocean circulation must have played an important role. Natural variations have counteracted the greenhouse effect for a decade or so, but I expect this period is over now.”
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Glaciation is a subtle form of global warming.
The warmer it gets , the colder it gets !!!! Liberal ” fact “…ask Gory !!
Save the planet—watch a cheap movie.
DESTROY the planet – make a cheap movie !!
Every time I hear of people referencing TDAT movie I point them to the fact that Gore used the CGI of the calving glaciers in that film for his Inconvenient
lieTruth.You cannot halt a current.
At least that is the current thinking on the topic.
An electrifying observation
Three ways to stop the AMOC:
– stop the Earth from rotating so that there is less wind and less wind-driven ocean currents;
– change the properties of water so that it is the same density regardless of its temperature; or,
– take the atmosphere away so there is no wind-driven ocean currents.
Which one did they model exactly
Bill, you forgot to assume the magic heat transfer powers of CO2. That’s the engine that drives the model.
All roads lead to the carbon tax, by order of the emperor.
It’s as if they have no concept of continental drift and that all of the continental plates have remained static since the begining of life…wait a second, has any climatologist factor in plate tectonics? Oh yeah, we don’t yet posses a reliable thousand+ year dataset yet.
Not a thousand years, but more like a million. On a geological time scale the climates of every landmass has shifted to just about every imaginable degree. Why these nut cases assume that it should remain static is beyond reason.
Nature, letter to the editor, NATURE, VOL 428, 8 APRIL 2004, pp 601.
http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/naturegulfstreamltr.pdf
Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns
“Sir:
Your News story “Gulf Stream probed for early warnings of system failure” (Nature 427, 769; 2004) discusses
what the climate in the south of England would be like “without the Gulf Stream”. Sadly, this phrase has been seen far too often, usually in newspapers concerned with the unlikely possibility of a new ice age in Britain triggered by the loss of the Gulf Stream. European readers should be reassured that the Gulf Stream’s existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth’s rotation, or both.
Real questions exist about conceivable changes in the ocean circulation and its climate consequences. However, such discussions are not helped by hyperbole and alarmism. The occurrence of a climate state without the Gulf Stream any time soon — within tens of millions of years — has a probability of little more than zero.
Carl Wunsch,
Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge,
Massachusetts 02139, USA”
The Gulf Stream may exist because of the wind and rotation, but it’s course shifts as well. So the question of what would the weather be like if the Gulf Stream shifted to a more southerly direction than it currently is due to changes caused by heavier cold water discharge from the polar region still is a valid consideration. “One size fits all” arguments tend to be less useful than intended. Conditions might well be able to arise that would shift the stream closer to Spain, as an example, and what would that change affect the UK climate? That it will still flow towards the east is a given, but how far towards the north is not.
AMOC shutoff will trigger the next glaciation of the Quaternary Ice Age. Global warming will end. The planet ges colder, the Artic Ice Cap grows, and last time a mile thick sheet of ice covered all of the British Isles. The UK wouldn’t have a climate.
I’ve notice people now getting mixed up with the Gulf stream and the AMOC.
That is true for the Gulf stream, but the AMOC is not the Gulf stream. The Gulf stream delivers warms waters that the AMOC moves northwards towards the Arctic ocean. Wind driven current’s on the planets surface and Earth’s rotation are not South to North. They are West to East and if they followed this path ocean currents move from Canada to Spain.
The winds at the equator blow East to West. The Gulf Stream really starts next to Africa at the equator.
It then runs up against the continental shelf of South America (a good current needs 200 metres of ocean depth), gets diverted north along the coast into the IntraAmerican seas, then into the Gulf of Mexico (forming a loop most of the time), then it flows between Florida and the Bahamas, then it follows the continental shelf of North America …
Throughout the first half of the Gulf Stream’s journey, it is driven by the East to West Trade Winds and the momentum of all that water coming in from behind and confined by the ocean depths that are at least 200 metres deep.
Then, right after the Florida coast, it starts to move toward the NorthWest now, driven by the primarily southwest to northeast winds. It gets all the way to north of Norway where it starts to cool off but continues flowing into the Arctic Ocean basin, spending a good 10 years moving around until it encounters some thick sea ice somewhere in the middle of the Arctic basin and it starts to cool down to -1.5C or so and gains some extra salt content from the fresh sea ice above and it starts to slowly sink to the very bottom of the Arctic Ocean basin 4500 metres down because it is now the coldest, densest water there is on the planet.
This is the AMOC now.
After spending 300 or 500 years at the bottom of the various Arctic ocean basins. it starts to get pushed out of the basin and actually overflows at the Denmark Strait Overflow and Faroe Bank Channel Overflow and the Labrador Sea channel. It is the most dense water and it actually overflows like a waterfall even though it 500 metres deep at the restrictions channel. After falling another 3000 metres in this biggest on the planet waterfall, it continues flowing south at the very bottom of the Atlantic ocean until its starts to over-ride the even colder, denser water from Antarctica at at 20S.
That is the Gulf Stream and the AMOC. Wind and cold water under the sea ice in the middle of the Arctic ocean.
“The winds at the equator blow East to West. The Gulf Stream really starts next to Africa at the equator.
It then runs up against the continental shelf of South America (a good current needs 200 metres of ocean depth), gets diverted north along the coast into the IntraAmerican seas, then into the Gulf of Mexico (forming a loop most of the time), then it flows between Florida and the Bahamas, then it follows the continental shelf of North America …
Throughout the first half of the Gulf Stream’s journey, it is driven by the East to West Trade Winds and the momentum of all that water coming in from behind and confined by the ocean depths that are at least 200 metres deep.
Then, right after the Florida coast, it starts to move toward the NorthWest now…..”
All correct to here and I was describing from once the Gulf Stream moved North towards eastern parts off the North American continent. The Gulf stream goes no further North than here where it becomes the North Atlantic drift that is driven North by the AMOC. The winds only mainly move NE from here to due this drift and would without it blow West to East from here instead via the Canary current towards Spain. This is what was observed during ice ages when there was no Northward moment of the ocean current above the line between the Gulf stream and the Canary current.
http://americasfirstentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Gulf-Stream.gif
The equivalent in the Southern Hemisphere if it behaved the same way with no AMOC or North Atlantic drift, would lead to a current moving SW down the side of South America. There is no current here because no sinking or AMOC equivalent is moving it this way and behaves like it would without it. The South American currents are behaving like the equivalent Northern Hemisphere current with the Gulf Stream moving towards the Canary current. This behavior occurs about 90% of the time in the NH during ice ages.
http://api.ning.com/files/KwywHD30nZ8S9LC1uELtO6ewvL-gXIThptHfXpiHnLjrCQ-yQHx3xADtBeZ8*7TgNwvD6KxXghNy*qXkicGBgPmnSFXKmCw0dInDgA6ugG0_/gulf_stream.gif
Those are not the “real” sinking regions. The coldest densest water is at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean basins are seen in this 3D image. All throughout the basins, the water is mostly about -1.5C.
http://90-north.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/bathymetric_map_Arctic_Ocean.jpg
It originates under the sea ice throughout the Arctic Ocean basin. As more bottom water accumulates from above into these basins, it overflows the choke points or the canyons shown above the 3D map. But it takes hundreds of years to do so in various basin.
http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0012821X15001442-gr001.jpg
It eventually reached and overflows three main choke points to become the Atlantic Ocean Bottom Water or the deep current part of the AMOC. The temperature of the water overflowing here is -1.0C.
The largest overflow occurs at the Denmark Strait Overflow.
Climate science does not understand the how the AMOC and the Gulf Stream actually works so they should just stop trying to model it for one thing.
Agree Bill, good images.
@ur momisugly Bill Illis…I noticed that around 3 weeks ago there was a break in the lower portion of the flow after it reaches the east coast of South America. The main flow at that point splits with a good portion of the flow moving eastward back towards Africa. To my mind that would have to have an effect of lessening the warmth and strength of the Gulf Stream as it flows towards Europe. Am I remembering that right, or has there always been a substantial back-to-the-east flow of current after the Stream reaches South America?
Next study: can pigs fly?
Yes they can for short periods of time, if catapulted correctly. Send money so I can model this.
Pig flying hiatus ends at apogee, but my model is inconclusive. Send more money for a more powerful computer so I can model/miss-calculate in more depth.
No, Sunspot. You don’t need a more powerful computer. You just need money for a bigger catapult.
.
.
.
P.S. Mind the orbiting International Space Station, please.
Oh F##K! SOMEBODY PLEASE call NORAD!
michael
ps I don’t want to be over-crowded down here!
“Professor Sybren said: “It can be excluded, however, that this hiatus period was solely caused by changes in atmospheric forcing, either due to volcanic eruptions, more aerosols emissions in Asia, or reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in ocean circulation must have played an important role. Natural variations have counteracted the greenhouse effect for a decade or so, but I expect this period is over now.”
Not one word of this is backed up by anything real. Complete speculation and unfounded assumptions. WOW.
Oh jeez. I read “Soybean” instead of “Sybren”. I am guessing I will remember his name for the future now. 😉
And the saddest part it that his work was probably paid for by a government grant.
‘… the scenario of an abrupt collapse of the AMOC, as a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse warming, was never assessed with a state-of-the-art climate model …’.
Why “anthropogenic”, surely any warming natural or human-assisted would have the same result therefore there must be lots of historical evidence for the process Professor Drijfhout describes.
“The planet earth recovers from the AMOC collapse in about 40 years when global warming continues at present-day rates, but near the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic (including the British Isles) it takes more than a century before temperature is back to normal …”.
What’s “normal”?
What the good professor is describing sounds like a self-limiting system.
The take home here is that alarmists are indeed not only worried by the “pause” but growing unease that it could be the beginning of a catastrophic cooling period. When you fear for your easy, high paying jobs you cast about for plausible soupcons of warming causes icy cold. You start off with a situation accompanied by the scary graphic of New York buried in snow as a trial balloon to see how colleagues and useful fools react to it on the internet and twitter.
The big protest in Quebec about global warming in a deep snow cold spring after the coldest winter since records began shows that useful fools are already lined up. This work was not intended for fun but to twig other scared alarmists into pursuing similar research so when it happens, it’s already been covered by the ‘scientists’. This is Nobel Prize stuff.
Do Sharknado next! Do Sharknado next!
We are all carbon based, thus subject to Carbon Taxes.
Now on to the building of the new Pharaoh’s new Pyramid’s.
You will obey tax slaves.
Hey!!! Al Gore used a CGI scene of a glacier having calves in his little disaster movie, “An Inconvenient Truth”.
If Al said it’s all real then it must be.
(Maybe we should change CGI, “Computer Generated Imagery”, to CGT, “Computer Generated Truth”?)
Interesting choice of colours for the Temperature Anomaly map. Where Red is ~+4’C and Yellow is ~+12’C giving the impression that the world is burning up in this model.
Funny how that always happens !!! LOL,…
I’ve always loved the ones where even zero is colored light red.
I quote:
“Natural variations have counteracted the greenhouse effect for a decade or so, but I expect this period is over now.”
So its natural variations now that have been holding greenhouse effect at bay! But not to worry, it is all over now. Mysteriously he knows it as a fact but is not telling us how he got to find it out. Does it not bother Herr Professor Doctor Sybren Drijfhout that such “natural” variations took over and had enough power to stop the anthropogenic greenhouse effect? It would make a whole lot more sense if he recognized that “natural” variations are the only ones that actually do exist. The very existence of the current hiatus as well as the one in the eighties and nineties he does not even know about is sufficient to prove that. Speaking of natural variations, one of the most significant that happened in recent times was a sudden warming of the Arctic (Kaufman et al,, Science, September 4th 2009) at the beginning of the twentieth century. This was after two thousand years of slow cooling . No one expected it and no one knows why it happened. Now there is something for the alleged “Arctic experts” to explain to us but no – they have lost all curiosity about natural science and are quite happy to stay with the discredited greenhouse theory. Quite a few papers have come out tracking the progress of the resulting Arctic warming but they all sidestep the issue of what caused it and start their observations when the sea change is over. But that warming is still going on and provably it cannot be caused by the greenhouse effect. You do make reference above to global warming continuing despite the AMOC failure, another lazy approach to origins. That is simply impossible because it may be demonstrated that the alleged global warming does not exist. There are numerous ways to prove this, the easiest being refutation of Hansen’s claim in 1988 that he observed the greenhouse effect himself. The technically easiest way to understand the absence of global warming is to use the observed properties of the ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ of warming that has now lasted for 18 years. What is happening is that there is no warming and yet atmospheric carbon dioxide keeps increasing. This is contrary to the predictions of the Arrhenius greenhouse theory which is thereby rendered invalid and belongs in the waste basket of history. This does bot mean that we do not have a greenhouse theory. We do and it is called MGT (Miskolczi greenhouse theory). It predicts what we see: addition of carbon dioxide to air does not cause warming, precisely what is happening today. . It came out in 2007 and its predictions were so unpalatable to IPCC that it was promptly blacklisted. MGT explains what our climate is doing, what it has been doing, and what we should expect it to be doing. It can handle more than one greenhouse gas at once where Arrhenius is limited to just one, CO2. According to MGT carbon dioxide and water vapor, both greenhouse gases, cooperate to create a joint absorption window in the infrared whose optical thickness is 1.87. When more carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere this increases the optical thickness. And as soon as this happens water vapor reacts by diminishing and raining out until the original optical thickness is restored. Miskolczi showed in 2010 that that the optical thickness of the atmosphere remains invariant when carbon dioxide increases by as much as a factor of two. When no other natural influences are actively causing temperature changes MGT is responsible for creating a hiatus. In view of all this any theory that incorporates the effect of the greenhouse effect is simply wrong. That is just what is wrong with the current theory that these people are trying to foist upon us.
And those ” Natural Variations ” will disappear when it’s convenient !!!
Which film is he going to study the “science” of next?
I would suggest, the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Or perhaps Harry Potter.
Although, they may be a little advanced.
How about the science of the teletubbies.
They appeared to have adopted wind turbines. And yet one of the characters was a vacuum cleaner.
It’s an interesting parable, K.E. of moving air converts to K.E. rotational energy to Electrical Energy to K.E. rotational energy to K.E. moving air.
Many people miss these subtler details.
Where’s my huge grant?
Wait a minute, wasn’t he that bloke who was discovered with his trousers down in L.A. receiving pleasure?
But later the hooker who was involved revealed that that one trick made her ONE MILLION DOLLARS.
And THAT, is why everyone these days is trying to be a hooker.
Whether it’s this guy, with his voodoo cargo cult analysis, or Stephan Lewandowsky, or John Cook.
You just need to pull that ONE TRICK, that sucks in the world’s attention.
And then life is very easy indeed.
Meanwhile, honest people are struggling to fix their cars or pay their rising electricity bills.
And yes, I did use the word, “suck” intentionally.
indefatigablefrog
If they were to study “Lord Of The Rings” They should also do a bit of reading on the Somme, Tolkien was in WW1
michael
Meanwhile one trick from the real world?
An interesting development in time for the Paris-ites
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/10/09/green-reverse-denmark-abandons-climate-change-targets-scraps-electric-car-subsidies/
The author writes, “Interestingly, the effect of atmospheric cooling due to an AMOC collapse is associated with heat flow from the atmosphere into the ocean, which has been witnessed during the climate hiatus of the last 15 years.”
Witnessed is way too strong of a word. Modeled would be more accurate. The statement likely has its beginnings in the supposed energy imbalance and the fact that the amount of warming expected by the models cannot be found, so it must have disappeared into the abyss of the oceans. What is not mentioned in that tome is the fact that IF the amount of warming that was expected had gone into the oceans it would have disappeared into such a vast entity without a single trace, even if we had actual 6:00 news footage of the transfer event. And it would not have come back out to demonstrably warm anyone’s backside ever.
State a fable often enough and it shows up as a fact in someone’s writings. Drives me ratshit BATTY!!!!
Pamela
That’s called “sweeping it under the rug”. That damned “heat” has an almost human intelligence and quality in its ability to stealthily creep into hidey holes in the abyss. (Wishful thinking maybe?).
I’ve got a disaster scenario, is everyone ready for this?
Here it is.
The scenario is not unlike The Day After Tomorrow. But unlike The Day After Tomorrow, this scenario is not only real, it is inevitable.
This scenario is the end of the interglacial. No human caused “sins against the environment” required. Blame Gaia.
If CO2 is a forcing its effect on temperature must be according to the time-integral of the CO2 level or the time-integral of a math function of the CO2 level.
The Phanerozoic eon, 542 million years of life on land, demonstrates CO2 has had no effect on climate. The 97% match 1895-2012 between the 5-year moving average of measured average global temperatures and average global temperatures calculated using Equation (ii) in the paper at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com also demonstrates that CO2 has no effect on climate.
Model
?w=2784&h=1860
Proxy (About half these values at first after a period, becoming these during the coldest part of an ice age.)
http://paos.colorado.edu/~fasullo/1060/gifs/iceage.gif
Not much difference is there.
This temperature map of the ice age screams to me that the ice age was a largely weather driven event.
Because the pools of cold across the NH are just where l would expect them to be if the cause of the ice age was down to the weather.
The cold pools across the NH are expected where they are if the North Atlantic ocean was all land.
Matt G
No just that the weather had the leading role in the formation of the ice age. This temperature map suggests to me that during the peak of the ice age. There was frequent blocking in the North Pacific with ridging going up towards NW America. Which lead to frequent out breaks of cold Polar air down across North America. Where over in Europe the cold pool was set up by frequent patterns blocking highs over the Greenland to northern Europe area and with low pressure sitting over northern Russia. Which would lead to blasts of Polar air moving down across the NE europe/NW Russia area. Which then would be drawn across europe due to the blocking highs. lt also suggests that the jet stream would often split due to this blocking over europe. With part of it pushing up into the Arctic and then moving down across NW Russia, and a other part taking a zonal southern tracking path across europe. But which would take a more NW path once it was flowing across Russia.
Once the AMOC collapsed and the North Atlantic ocean become cold enough for ice bergs to survive.
That is very good assessment that would generally fit in with pressure patterns around Northern Hemisphere. Not just over northern Europe had blocking highs, but also Scotland too during the coldest depths of ice ages with significant drying of the climate over there. The jet stream was much further South between the Gulf Stream and Spain describing the zonal southern tracking path, sometimes moving North towards the UK or further South towards North Africa. The low pressure systems would generally be expected to move towards western Russia from the southern UK or Spain.
The Siberian high was much larger than now, where there were no glaciers detected in Northern/central Siberia because it was extremely dry. There was little sign though the jet stream might push up to Arctic via Western Greenland and move down across NW Russia because how cold it got there, this couldn’t have happened very often. That’s because the jet stream of course is a boundary between polar air and tropical air. There was little sign any tropical air got much further North than NW Russia or Greenland, due to how much colder they were. With Scotland being extremely dry also suggested the jet stream even failed to reach here majority of the time.
Sorry l meant to say that the jet stream would have taken a more NE not NW path across Russia.
Am not so sure that the Siberian high was much larger during the ice age. l think it was more of a case that the blocking more more westwards towards europe due to increase of low pressure settling over northern Russia. Because this set up would explain the cold pool over NW Russia. As cold Polar air is pushed south over this area, but with warmer air coming up from the south across Russia further westwards. l believe the lack of ice sheets over the eastern half of Russia was in large part due to the lack of cold through out the year, due to this weather set up. Now what leads me to think that the jet stream did push up towards the Arctic at times during the ice age, is the big swings in temp across Greenland. As this is just what l would have expected had the blocking highs at times formed more over towards Greenland. So pushing up warmer air from the south up across Greenland.
The jet stream may have taken a more NE path across Russia from Spain/England region, but northern blocking across Europe can be often associated with Siberian high when moved further west. With northern blocking being dominant would also suggest Siberian high presence more common. There would have been a jet stream push at times during the ice age towards the Arctic highlighting the big swings in temperature across Greenland. Just that during the coldest periods central Greenland especially was extremely cold and dry, indicating no or very little jet stream presence. Warmer air pushing up towards Greenland from Gulf stream region and eastern parts of North American for example happens much more commonly now. When the main jet stream during the ice ages was moving across Gulf stream regions towards Southern Spain there were far less opportunities for the other alternative, with a much different change in the North Atlantic pressure pattern being pushed about 2000-2500 miles south.
http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gary_Clow/publication/248797622_Temperature_accumulation_and_ice_sheet_elevation_in_central_Greenland_through_the_last_deglacial_transition/links/0a85e52f3d6b321a55000000.pdf
Aaagh. . . Alma Mater. . . Nooooo!
Well, feel sorry for me then. I went to Bristol. Home of the Lew Monster and his bogus surveys.
I would recommend staying as far away as possible from that godforsaken place…