From the UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
Lab experiments question popular measure of ancient ocean temperatures
Understanding the planet’s history is crucial if we are to predict its future. While some records are preserved in ice cores or tree rings, other records of the climate’s ancient past are buried deep in the seafloor.
An increasingly popular method to deduce historic sea surface temperatures uses sediment-entombed bodies of marine archaea, one of Earth’s most ancient and resilient creatures, as a 150-million-year record of ocean temperatures. While other measures have gaps, this one is increasingly popular because it promises to fill in gaps to provide a near-global record of ocean temperatures going back to the age of the dinosaurs.

But University of Washington research shows this measure has a major hitch: The single-celled organism’s growth varies based on changes in ocean oxygen levels. Results published in August in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences show that oxygen deprivation can alter the temperature calculations by as much as 21 degrees Celsius.
“It turned out that oxygen has a huge, dramatic effect,” said corresponding author Anitra Ingalls, a UW associate professor of oceanography. “It’s a big problem.”
Recent research shows these archaea, which draw energy from mere whiffs of ammonia, make up about 20 percent of microbial life in the oceans. Their bodies are plentiful in the ocean floor.
A method established in 2002 uses fats in the archaea’s cell membrane to measure past ocean temperatures, including during a major warming event about 56 million years ago that is one of the best historical analogs for present-day climate change, and a sudden oceanic cooling of up to 11 degrees Celsius during a period of low ocean oxygen about 100 million years ago, when other records are scarce.
Climate scientists found they could measure ocean temperature by looking at the change in the TEX-86 index, a temperature proxy named for the 86-carbon lipids in the cell membrane, which often tracks the surrounding water temperature.
The method seems to work better in some samples than others, prompting Ingalls and her co-authors to wonder about its physiological basis. The newly published experiments tested that relationship and found an unexpectedly strong response to low oxygen.
“Changing the oxygen gives us as much as 21 degree Celsius shift in the reading,” said first author Wei Qin, a UW doctoral student in civil and environmental engineering. “That’s solid evidence that it’s not just a temperature index.”
This means the TEX-86 measurements are inaccurate in parts of the ocean that may have experienced oxygen changes at the same time — for example, in low-oxygen zones or during major extinction events. This is exactly when the archaea are a popular index since other life forms, whose shells can provide a chemical signature for their growth temperatures, are absent.
It’s not known exactly why the archaea shift their lipid membranes. They may adapt to a temperature change by making their membrane tighter or less brittle in the new environment, Ingalls said. Low oxygen is another big environmental stressor.
“The envelope that encloses the cell is sort of the gatekeeper, and when stress is encountered of any kind, that membrane needs to adjust,” Ingalls said.
The new study is the first to actually look at how these archaea grow in different temperatures. These archaea are famously hardy — it’s the same group that lives in Yellowstone hot springs — but they have stymied attempts to grow them in captivity.
Qin was first author of a 2014 study that was the first to grow and compare individual strains of the marine Thaumarchaeota archaea under different conditions. He used samples from Puget Sound, a Seattle beach and a tropical-water tank at the Seattle Aquarium to show that related strains occupy a wide range of ecological niches.
In the new paper, he shows that the membrane lipids of different strains can have different temperature dependences. Some of them are a straight line, meaning they would be a good indication of past temperature, but others are not.
He also did experiments in which he changed the oxygen concentration of the air above the culture flasks. Results show that as the oxygen level drops, the TEX-86 measures rise dramatically, with reading spanning 15 to 36 degrees C even though all samples were grown at 26 C.
“This index provides an amazing historical record, but it’s very important how you understand it,” Qin said. “Otherwise it could be misleading.”
Knowing that oxygen affects the membrane structure can help improve interpretation of the TEX-86 record. Researchers can disregard samples from low-oxygen water to improve the accuracy of the technique, which as it is used now has error bars of about 2 degrees C.
“Plus or minus 2 degrees is not very good when you think about the sensitivity of the climate system,” Ingalls said. “This gives us a new way of thinking about the data.”
Next, the UW team hopes to do more experiments to learn how other factors, like nutrient levels and pH, affect these archaea’s metabolisms.
“We think there’s reason to believe that there’s all kinds of things that could affect the membrane lipid composition, not just temperature,” Ingalls said.
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The research was funded by the National Science Foundation. Other co-authors are David Stahl, Laura Carlson, Virginia Armbrust and Allan Devol at the UW and James Moffett at the University of Southern California.
I suspect the use of “anti-science term” is meant for those who think that there was no warming from 1978 to 1997. They used to be called “deniers” but the 19 year and continuing plateau period put an end to that term. The basic problem is the IPCC was given a mandate to study only manmade global warming. The 19 year plateau is proof that natural cycles are at work and the influence of carbon dioxide, if any, cannot be proven but has to be small at best.
It is kinda like hiring a carpenter on a construction job and the only tool you give him is a hammer. Everything on the job site looks like a nail.
What this study has done, obviously, is to cast serious doubt on a favourite palaeo-temperature proxy. The authors just rendered every study using the TEX-86 dubious, if not useless. But what does Qin say?
“This index provides an amazing historical record, but it’s very important how you understand it,” Qin said. “Otherwise it could be misleading.” (Really?)
Not rocking the boat? Other, less charitable metaphors spring to mind.
If these micro-organisms are that sensitive to oxygen content of the overlying air, what other environmental parameters might cause other changes in the target parameter (which is, of course, the inferred ambient temperature)? pH? salinity (and permutations thereof)? oxygen content of the water (not the air)? water depth? turbidity? The list is limited only by one’s imagination. And if they feed off ammonia, perhaps the availability of ammonia might play a role? To use any organism as a really reliable proxy, you would need to conduct a series of experiments where you varied one environmental parameter at a time, and determined how each parameter affected your measurements, The you could build a correction matrix, and all you would have to do then is find other proxies that responded only to each of the interfering parameters. And to be sure of that, you would need to do controlled experiments on each of those proxies………………………….. and so on and so on. That would be rigorous science of the kind I learned. Anything else would be…………….. (fudging it?)
Could it possibly be that living organisms are too complex to act as simple proxies for their physical environment?
Thanks to these authors for a bit of real science, even if they wimp out about where it leads them.
Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground
And you may ask yourself
How do I work this?
And you may ask yourself
Where is that large automobile?
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful house
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful wife
Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Water dissolving…and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean
Under the water, carry the water at the bottom of the ocean
Remove the water at the bottom of the ocean
Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
Into the silent water
Under the rocks and stones
There is water underground
Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground
And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go to?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right?…Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself yourself
My God!…What have I done?!
Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
Into the silent water
Under the rocks and stones
There is water underground
Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
The sensitivity of any proxy to all perturbing variables, in hard science, has to be calculated and given a pass before any use of the proxy is acceptable. It is elementary poor science to use a proxy that has not passed such screening.
My first undergrad job with CSIRO about 1965, involved feeding introduced cattle pasture plants with various amounts of nutrients, in controlled conditions in a glasshouse, then performing ANOVA type analysis. Once we had a feel for perturbing variables in the nutrition mixes, including higher order effects (like nutrient A response was related to nutrient B levels), we took the experiments to the field and grew the plants in a variety of the most common soils.
From this, we determined what we considered to be an ideal supplementary mix of nutrients for real life, plus an affordable mix. There was some variation between these mixes, but we were not seeking numbers that were so accurate that, in the case above, one could determine a single number representing a condition 100 million years ago as the TEX-86 index was supposed to do. Frankly, the latter is impossible, because it is impossible to discover and quantify the perturbing variables to the extent required. Evolutionary changes, for one thing, become a factor that has to be quantified.
(The head of the plant nutrition project, Dr Les Edye, was later awarded a CSIRO Medal for excellence in science. Several pasture grasses and legumes from abroad were assessed as suitable for raising beef yields and the country has benefitted since then. Townsville stylo legume Stylosanthes humilis is now widespread in the northern half of Australia. I did the first ANOVA analysis for stylo by hand using pencil, paper and eraser, by Fisher’s method, because calculators were hard to get and slow and mechanical. Perhaps this made us learn the ‘feel’ of our data better, which is a definite plus over feeding it blind into a computer).
Steve;
“No, if you know all things with uncertainty you know no things with certainty”.
Are you certain of that??