This is #2 in an ongoing series of serial forecast failures (that need to be thrown back in their faces) by climate alarmists and their helpers, the mainstream media. Here, USA Today helped Al Gore make a forecast about Arctic sea ice that had no chance of ever being right. Of course, this was in 2009 at COP15 in Copenhagen, considered by many leaders to be the “last chance” for planet Earth.
Source: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2009/12/gore-new-study-sees-nearly-ice-free-arctic-summer-ice-cap-as-early-as-2014/1#.VbDxe9JVhBc
And, the Arctic ice is still there:
![N_bm_extent[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/n_bm_extent1.png?quality=75)
It didn’t disappear in 2014, and in fact it appears to not be all that much different from 2009 around the time of the peak summer melt in mid-September:
Source: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=15&fy=2009&sm=09&sd=15&sy=2014
The result of this failed forecast:
![al_gore_facepalm_reuters[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/al_gore_facepalm_reuters1.jpg?quality=83)
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There is nothing wrong with counterfactual reasoning. If my aunt had a certain appendage, she would be my uncle.
Mr. Gore never said “polar ice cap will disappear 2014”, but “polar ice cap may disappear by 2014″. And, of course, it’s exactly what’s happened. It might have disappeared (eg. in a world with different physics), the fact it did not, has nothing to do with Mr. Gore’s proposition. In fact no fact whatsoever has anything to do with the man, who used to be the next president of the US.
To be fair, Algore did base his prediction on computer models and Al did put in the CYA “may” so he wasn’t wrong. The ice did/may have “virtually” disappeared in 2014.
Lots of things have “virtually” happened in the various “virtual realities” out there.
(I think there are name for those who can’t tell the difference between virtual reality and real reality or attempt to blind others to the difference for some sort of personal gain.)
The periods dominated by any single form of atmospheric circulation have alternated with a roughly 30-year period for the last 100 years. These periods were named “Circulation epochs”. These may be pooled into two principal groups: meridional (C) and combined “latitudinal” epochs (W + E): (W + E) = – (C)
Meridional (C) circulation dominated in 1890-1920 and 1950-1980. The combined, “zonal” (W+E) circulation epochs dominated in 1920-1950 and 1980-1990. Current “latitudinal”(WE) epoch of 1970-1990s is not completed yet, but it is coming into its final stage, and so the “meridional” epoch (C-circulation) is now in its initial stage. (It will be useful for the reader to note here the relation that shows that the “transition” from C to W-E is continuous, and the equation balances to 100%, in the form of a simple graphic without any other variables included).
It was found that “zonal” epochs correspond to the periods of global warming and the meridional ones correspond to the periods of global cooling. (Lamb 1972; Lambeck 1980). The generalised time series on the atmospheric circulation forms for 1891-1999 were kindly placed at our disposal by the Federal Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) in St. Petersburg (Russia). This is also consistent with the theories and observations described by Leroux (1998).
http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y2787e/y2787e03.htm#TopOfPage
We must demand, that Al Gore must return his Noble Prize, for failures in his forecasts on which he received Noble Prize.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
It was not Al Gore’s forecast, he was referring to some of the forecasts done by science teams.
Harry,
Cute.
When you are speaking before a major Conference of alarmists, and refer to alarmists quotes, you OWN it.
The exaggerations become yours unless you clearly state that the predictions are unlikely or have a low probability
Gore also incorporated about a dozen lies in his movie as determined by a UK court, if he is not capable of judging reality that is part of his reputation. His record is clear, no excuses accepted here.
[28 lies, as recalled from the UK court case. .mod]
No he was not “referring” to those forecasts. He was preaching them as if they were the Gospel! Go soft peddle your spin too fools that would buy it!
Does anyone here deny that the arctic sea ice extent is declining rapidly? If so, please provide evidence that it is not. Here is an analysis showing that the decline we are seeing in the arctic sea ice is unprecedented in the last 1450 years.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html
Luke
Well, the past two years, Arctic sea ice has averaged right at 6-7 percent below its long-term averages through the year – going above that difference only as sea ice gets near its annual minimums in mid-September, we are “denying” nothing.
Further, since Antarctic sea ice is expanding and setting new record extents at 11% to 37% ABOVE its long-term averages all year long, and since this excess Antarctic sea ice reflects some 1.68 TIMES the solar energy over the year that any “missing” Arctic sea ice absorbs, and sicne this excess Antarctic sea ice has been regularly larger than the entire area of Hudson Bay, and has been equal to the entire Greenland icecap while setting that new record sea ice extent,
And, since today’s “missing” Arctic sea ice loses more energy through increased evaporation, conduction, LW radiation and convection losses than it gains through increased solar exposure 8 of the 12 months of the year,
and since Arctic sea ice cannot in any way go “lower” than a potential complete loss in mid-September (by which time the Arctic is receiving some 10 TIMES less energy than the Antarctic (which is unlimited in sea ice expansion),
…
I’d say there is not only no reason to worry about any subsequent potential future loss of Arctic sea ice, but that there is very little current Arctic sea ice loss, and yet much more to worry about if current trends continue: Arctic sea ice loss from today’s levels and Antarctic sea ice gain from long term averages. BOTH of today’s trends cause irrevocable heat loss from the earth.
I don’t need to “deny” it. The data does:
?w=1024&h=682
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/06/introducing-the-wuwt-beaufort-sea-ice-reference-page-with-observations/
Luke use the Force.
Try this link.
I, myself, sure got a good feel for how dynamic sea-ice really is.
What makes you think a decline in Arctic ice (assuming that’s the case, and assuming it’s a result of warming due to CO2 increase caused by human activity, which is a stretch) is a bad thing?
Planetary warming is good, but cooling is bad, very bad.
If increasing CO2 would warm the Earth, that would be another good reason to pump it out as fast as we can. The other, primary reason is that nearly all life on Earth depends on it for survival.
Reducing CO2 by half, I.e., 200 ppmv, would result I’m massive loss of life, both plant and animal. Global cooling would suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, which would exacerbate loss of life (at least on dry land) caused by cooling itself.
Why are CAGW alarmists so anti life? A cold, CO2 starved existence is not something to be desired.
Hmm… they show up en masse again…
Al Gore would have been right if he had said 1987:
?w=346&h=261
Polar Bears and Subs
http://www.strategypage.com/gallery/images/sub_bears2.jpg
1959
http://leurenmoret.info/_Media/pic-23-ssn-skate-5962-globa.jpeg
Video of the Skate in 1958
http://www.nbcnews.com/video/icue/29901154#29901154
And in related news this may raise a smile! http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/25/cambridge-professor-big-oil-funded-death-squads-tried-to-murder-me-because-i-knew-too-much-about-global-warming/
It makes one wonder just what all the delusional global warming alarmist freaks will be declaring at the coming Paris climate conference in December.
Remember the Copenhagen Conference? Leading up to that December 2009 conference, It was touted as “the most important meeting to save the world”.
Now, it’s happening all again. United Nations climate chief, Christiana Figueres, stated during an interview of the Associated Press in Paris, France, Wednesday, July 22, 2015 that the upcoming climate change conference in Paris is the last chance for a meaningful agreement.
Once again, the scaremongering. Always “the last chance” etc etc etc. Soon we will have the heavies also come on board… like Al Gore and Prince Charles, and the usual army of enviro-eco-terrorists hoping Paris will be the green light for the implementation of the UN’s AGENDA 21 triggering the dismantling of capitalism.
Yet when will these climate change charlatans calmly sit back and reflect on all the dire predictions made over the last two decades about coming climate catastrophes, which have not come true, and pose the question how did they get it so wrong?