Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
There has been a series of shark attacks off the Carolina coasts. As of last count, the number is 11 shark bites since mid-May.
As one might have expected, from mainstream media’s let’s-see-what-we-can-blame-on-global-warming department comes the CBSNews article “Strange” spike in shark attacks puzzles experts. The news report includes (my boldface):
The recent spate of shark attacks has left many beachgoers nervous.
Dr. Samuel Gruber, the director of the Bimini SharkLab research facility in the Bahamas, says the spike in attacks suggests something strange is going on.
“The trend is normally zero or one attack in that area in any one year,” said Gruber.
Theories as to why this is happening range from time of day, to bait fishing, sea turtle migration, lunar cycles and global warming.
Whose theories? The author doesn’t say.
Maybe, just maybe, there’s another factor at work. Let’s call it the dufus factor, which states anyone who goes swimming in North and South Carolina waters, where there have recently been shark attacks, is very likely a dufus…plain and simple, a dufus.
WHAT ABOUT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE?
Using the coordinates of 32N-37N, 82W-75W for the North and South Carolina coastal waters, according to NOAA’s new ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature dataset, the May 2015 sea surface temperature anomaly was +1.36 deg C referenced to 1981-2010. See Figure 1. But that’s not unusual there. Sea surface temperature anomalies have been higher in the past…especially in the 1930s and 40s. Note also how low the warming rate there has been since the start of the dataset in 1854.
Figure 1
Clearly, the sea surface temperatures off the Carolina coasts have cooled since the 1930s and 40s, so let’s see how far back in time we can go, in 5-year increments, until the data show no warming for that region. The results are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2
Based on the linear trend, NOAA’s new ERSST.v4 data show the surfaces of the waters off the coasts of North and South Carolina have not warmed in more than a century.
Once again, mainstream media has failed to do its homework.
SOURCE
NOAA’s ERSST.v4 data are available at the KNMI Climate Explorer
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In the summer of 1987 three attacks occurred in the Port Aransas, Texas area, two in one day. Other single attacks had occurred after killing freezes, one in 1962 fatal. Bob Jones, then director of the University of Texas Marine Science Institute, myself, and the late Henry Hildebrand investigated the later attacks and wondered if the lack of food contributed. The local officials were very open and cooperative about this mini-JAWS episode. We submitted a paper based on an old idea of extended foraging, where predators take greater risks, including new territories, when food is scarce. We suggested that considering varying environmental factors preceding the attacks were necessary. The journal remarked that this was the most controversial paper ever and the reviewers were vitriolic and made errors. It was rejected and we simply sent the information to the Shark Attack File. We identified a tooth from one victim as a blacktip, which are common summer residents. There is evidence that young are protected from predation in the surf zone by larger sharks, often seen just offshore. Large sharks are sometimes close to the shoreline, especially under calm conditions where slopes are steeper.
Subsequent to the Texas one, a Red Tide appeared off North Carolina and I wrote Frank Schwartz, mentioned in the National Geographic piece, but he said that it was offshore and probably would not be important.
Shark attacks are very rare most places, but within are the not so rare clumps. These pages are full of warnings about statistics, but relegating attacks to only ‘accidents’ avoids what could be insight into shark behavior. A large study by David Baldridge produced both a scholarly report and a popular book. He suggested that attacks were more likely when sharks were “petulant,” but the definition was unclear.
A half century ago I worked on sharks on the outer Virginia coast, a high salinity area where sharks were common. Although more cool related species were common, tropical species showed up, including large male lemon sharks.
Great whites, the worst offenders, should be restricted by increasing temperatures since they are a cold temperate species. Collectively attacks are probably influenced/caused by a number of factors. Discriminating against hypotheses is not new, but we seem to have lots of cases in varying areas of science. While I have not examined the subject lately, shark populations may have been overregulated based on misunderstanding of their reproductive abilities. The possibility that there is a resource mismatch should not be discounted. Attacks relegated to the “… only small numbers… ” category are not well appreciated by those damaged.
lol they should check occams razor, the most simple solution is usually the right answer IE NO SWIMMERS equals NO shark attacks unless sharks learn how to walk on land
Fed policy has led to shark increases which leads to more shark attacks. Simple solution: Reduce shark numbers at NC/SC beaches now. How? Suspend all shark fishing restrictions inside the 3 mile area for 60-90 days. If attacks continue, the ultimate solution is to post a bounty on all sharks in that area. Try starting with $50 for any shark over 40lbs. Go up in price from there. Problem solved. Sharks vs kids arms and legs; sharks lose. Shark huggers won’t like this solution because sharks matter.