This article was transcribed from a newspaper clipping sent to me, it predicts a long term dramatic change may be possible in the Arctic, describing “unheard of temperatures reported in the Arctic zone”. Further, reports indicate “great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones” indicating glacier retreat. The report goes on to say that “At many points, well known glaciers have entirely disappeared” and “Everywhere, rocks are exposed that never before have been touched by the sun’s rays, and some large snow fields presumably everlasting, have disappeared entirely.
All indications are that the Arctic is undergoing and irreversible change. There’s only two problems:
1. Man-made global warming isn’t mentioned, in fact it wouldn’t even be a defined term yet for decades.
2. The article is from the Anchorage Daily Times, November 2nd, 1922.
You can read the entire article here:
ADT-article-1922 (PDF) h/t to WUWT reader Chris Beheim
And to show what goes around comes around again, we have this more recent but similar headline:
Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report
REYKJAVIK, Iceland — Get ready to order those beach umbrellas in Barrow. One of the leading authorities on the physics of northern seas is predicting an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2020.
That’s about two decades sooner than various models for climatic warming have indicated the Arctic might fully open.
“No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. “This is data.”
Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.
This data shows ice volume “is accelerating downward,” Wadhams said. “There doesn’t seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.
“By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. … (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free.”
Full story here: http://www.adn.com/article/20141102/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-un-releases-climate-report
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Current data and past temperature data is an excellent guide as to how the planet’s climate will change in the immediate future.
The first step to understanding what the past says to us, is to summarized the ‘lessons’ from the recent, later, and deep climatic data.
There is, there must be a physical explanation for everything that has happened in the recent and deep past.
1) Very recent data
What could have suddenly changed have changed post 2012 to explain the fact that there is now record sea in the Antarctic every month of the year, sudden cooling of the Greenland ice sheet, and a sudden increase in volume of sea ice/multi year sea ice in the Arctic? Why are there changes in both hemispheres? The changes appear to be cooling not warming.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
Why does the cult of CAWG stop the data analysis of current data at 2012? Why does the cult of CAWG ignore the cyclic warming and cooling in the paleo record?
3) Last 11,000 years
Greenland Ice sheet warms and then the Greenland ice sheet cools. The changes correlate with solar cycle changes. (P.S. Next solar thread I am going to discuss solar gate and provide data/analysis/logic to support the assertion that there has been both solar gate and temperature gate.)
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper. William: The Greenland Ice data shows that have been 9 warming and cooling periods in the last 11,000 years. There was abrupt cooling 11,900 years ago (Younger Dryas abrupt cooling period when the planet went from interglacial warm to glacial cold with 75% of the cooling occurring in less than a decade and there was abrupt cooling 8200 years ago during the 8200 BP climate ‘event’).
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
3) Last 240,00 years.
342 warming/cooling cycles in the Southern Hemisphere. Same periodicity as the warming/cooling cycles in the Northern hemisphere. Same periodicity, same cause. Weird that the super large interglacial initiating and terminating events follow the same periodicity. I guess as there is no explanation as to what causes the super large interglacial initiating and terming events and the periodicity of the cycle no one is interested. Can’t happen again cause we don’t know why it happened in the past.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/davis-and-taylor-wuwt-submission.pdf
What external forcing function could be driving the earth’s climate cycles?
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2003GL017115.shtml
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
“The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.”
The good doctor can explain to the layperson why he omits the submarine data pre 1979 as these records go back to the 1950’s.
No models here, this is data.
Garbage in, garbage out. It’s still “data”.
The NW Passage is probably a NOGO this year if CFSv2 is correct
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
Insert appropriate musical interlude here;
I love this old stuff. He passed away at 84. too bad. beautiful
If the Arctic was “undergoing an irreversible change” in 1922, why hasn’t the ice completely disappeared by now? No matter how many times alarmists get it wrong, they always insist that this time they have it right. By the time they are proven wrong again, they will already be off hyping a new doomsday scenario or recycling an old one. I’m just glad our seasons only last a few months. If they were decades long, these alarmists would forecast an accelerated and irreversible warming of the planet every summer and an irreversible ice age every winter. They seem to have no ability to comprehend natural cycles even though history is full of them.
My prediction: The Climate Change Alarmists will be intelligence free by 2020.
“A key feature of antimatter is that when a particle of it makes contact with its ordinary-matter counterpart, both are instantly transformed into other particles in a process known as annihilation. This makes antimatter exceedingly rare. However, it has long been known that positrons are produced by the decay of radioactive atoms and by astrophysical phenomena, such as cosmic rays plunging into the atmosphere from outer space. In the past decade, research by Dwyer and others has shown that storms also produce positrons, as well as highly energetic photons, or γ-rays.
It was to study such atmospheric γ-rays that Dwyer, then at the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, fitted a particle detector on a Gulfstream V, a type of jet plane typically used by business executives. On 21 August 2009, the pilots turned towards what looked, from its radar profile, to be the Georgia coast. “Instead, it was a line of thunderstorms — and we were flying right through it,” Dwyer says. The plane rolled violently back and forth and plunged suddenly downwards. “I really thought I was going to die.”
During those frightening minutes, the detector picked up three spikes in γ-rays at an energy of 511 kiloelectronvolts, the signature of a positron annihilating with an electron.”
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/~pyle/thethplot.gif
http://www.nature.com/news/rogue-antimatter-found-in-thunderclouds-1.17526
Galactic radiation (GCR) was at that time a record high. Oulu indicated more than 6800 counts, when we now have less than 6200.
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=01&startmonth=08&startyear=2009&starttime=00%3A00&endday=30&endmonth=08&endyear=2009&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
Well science is always done well by terrified academics.!
James, you’re dead wrong. They already are!
Well. 2020 is right around the bend. And we can’t do a thing to stop the climate change that menaces the left wing so much. So we might at well enjoy it.
What’s not to like about a summer ice free Arctic?
It opens up some much needed valuable resources.
Bring it on, the planet is way too cool and C02.levels are very much on the low side, at 260ppm they were almost critically low.
Now is the time to sell real estate to the greenies, call Baffin Bay the new Florida and you will make a fortune.
I think the 1922 Anchorage Daily Times article is more wishful thinking than fact.
Not many take Wadhams seriously. Gavin has strongly objected to his methane alarmism:
https://mobile.twitter.com/climateofgavin/status/514000767276314625
He is no longer taken seriously by either side of the debate, with good reason.
How can the Arctic (even if it were to lose its summer ice) have a temperate climate?
Does the man even know the meaning of this term of art? One cannot imagine that he does.
There is just insufficient hours of sunlight, with large enough grazing angles, for this to happen. The Arctic sun will always be weak.
Please read this article carefully. He doesn’t say that it will be a temperate zone, it was a 1922 article that made that claim. In fact he goes out of his way to say that there will still be a lot of ice in the arctic, but that ships could pass between it. He strongly implies the arctic won’t be temperate any time soon.
“In 2013-2014, a wavy polar vortex allowed frigid Arctic winds into the central and eastern United States, and the Great Lakes region endured some of the coldest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history. These frigid conditions coincided with a sudden rise in water levels, especially in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron, releasing stress on the shipping industry and shoreline property owners.
Hydrograph for Lakes Michigan and Huron shows annual average water levels (black) from 1860 through 2014. Monthly levels for the beginning of 2015 (January through April) are shown in blue. (GLERL)
However, these sudden fluctuations spurred questions in minds of both Great Lakes communities and scientists alike. Higher water levels released some of the strain on the Great Lakes economy, but researchers at GLERL set out to investigate if the shifts seen in the Great Lakes were a signal of long-term change or just a short-term fluctuation. The study investigates interseasonal relationships in Lake Michigan’s water temperatures to better understand if the 2013-2014 winter is a signal that the period of low water levels is coming to an end.
“We were bombarded by questions,” said Drew Gronewold, Ph.D., the lead author on the study. ”Everybody wanted to know if the cold winter and water level surge meant something in the long term.”
http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/11162/What-does-%E2%80%9Cnormal%E2%80%9D-mean-anyway.aspx
Only slightly off topic but …….
Listening to the Met/Bbc weather forecast for Scotland this morning.They are forecasting fairly extensive snow above 3000 feet and at lower levels with a wind chill of -5c in strong gales for Sunday and Monday.
My mind goes back to March 2010 and the prediction of that [other Academic] giant of British forecasting Dr David Vine “children are not going to know what snow is anymore”
Yes British Universities are not going to know what truth is any more.
That is my cast iron prediction – and Rory McIlroy is the greatest !
So, when does Rory surpass Jack?
Greenland has now starting to melt its snow-cover -a month later than usually. It is exceptional!
1% of the area started to melt the 16th of may.
http://www.dmi.dk/groenland/maalinger/indlandsisens-massebalance/
http://www.dmi.dk/uploads/tx_dmidatastore/webservice/e/n/i/b/m/Melt_combine.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png
Long term climate changes (excluding solar variability) is determined by ocean currents global heat distribution. Ocean currents flow is predetermined by the Earth’s rotation, oceanic bathymetry and major coastal features.
In contrast to fast wind driven surface currents, deep sea currents are slow and sedate affair. This in my view, makes the deep currents susceptible to the tectonic events. This means that the major global climate changes are determined by tectonics of the large oceanic areas subjected to tectonic activity.
The notable areas with the power to the influence and actually change global climate are large submarine areas of the far North Atlantic-Arctic ( generator of the AMO and the 60 year cycles) and the Equatorial Australo-Asia Pacific (generator of the El Nino)
Global gravity anomaly map clearly indicates the areas of the global tectonic instability
http://www.celestiamotherlode.net/catalog/images/screenshots/various/earth_Informational_maps_1__Ton_Lindemann.jpg
Of course, not many will agree, but the data available I have looked at, it does appear to confirm the above.
[What sensor(s) were used to create the gravity anomaly map? GRACE satellites? .mod]
It should read: ‘Long term climate changes is determined by ocean currents global heat distribution.’
One cannot emphasise enough, that it is all about the oceans and it is therefore unfortunate that we have so little high quality data on the oceans (beofe ARGO all ocean temp data is simply junk, and ARGO lacks spatial coverage, is of very short duration, and we are yet to determine whether there are inherent in built biases due to the free floating nature of the buoys that are swept along with currents which currents are density/temperature dependent).
Variations in solar energy going onto the oceans plays a major role in the warming of the oceans and their ability to distribute heat. The most obvious variability is clouds (in 3d, their composition, and the time of formation and dissipation).
Whether solar variability over and above the relatively small fluctuations in TSI has a role to play, we are yet to determine, but the prospects appear good that within the next 20 or so years we should have a better understanding of that factor.
yep: ‘Long term climate changes are determined by ocean currents global heat distribution.’
I suppose we have to accept (reluctantly) that the TSI variability is just not large enough. However, solar influence can not be totally ignored. My most recent search through various data suggests that there is something odd going on: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SST-AMO.htm
Last graph shows that the ‘effective’ positive pulses are synchronised with the even numbered sunspot cycles, while the ‘inactive’ lower amplitude are synchronised with the odd sunspot cycles.
There is also (disputed) statement from the NASA’s press release:
Raeder explains: “For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway.”
GRACE seems to be red hot at finding mountains whether they on land or under the ocean. Can it do anything else?
Yes. The website says:
The primary science objective of GRACE is to measure the Earth’s gravity field and it’s time variability with unprecedented accuracy. The secondary science objective is to obtain approximately 150 very precise globally distributed vertical temperature and humidity profiles of the atmosphere per day using the GPS radio occultation technique.
But ….
For the last few days there was a big switch off:
The GRACE-A and -B Microwave Assemblies (MWA) and Accelerometer Instrument Control Units (ICU) were switched-off on:
11 May 2015, 07:05 UTC: GRACE-B MWA
11 May 2015, 07:27 UTC: GRACE-A MWA
13 May 2015, 06:36 UTC: GRACE-A and GRACE-B ICU
https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/3rd-party-missions/current-missions/grace
It is a great loss to the advancement of good science !
Yes, Grace has two maps on the utexas.edu webpage
http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/gallery/gravity/Old_Gravity_Field.html
I quoted the second higher resolution map, the stretched version, it also gives a better view of the Atlantic, main area of my interest, than one on the utexas.edu.
AMO cycle almost exactly 60 years.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo/from:1800
http://www.climate4you.com/images/MSU%20RSS%20ArcticAndAntarctic%20MonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
Wadhams doesn’t seem to realise that the North Atlantic Oscillation goes negative during summers with less sea ice extent, while the IPCC models say that increased GHG forcing of the climate will make the NAO increasingly positive.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
Wadhams together with most of the climate science community, failed to recognise that for the far N. Atlantic, the tectonic and atmospheric pressure (the north leg of the NAO) oscillations are synchronised, but precede the SST by number of years; since both are on the decline the SST is likely to follow:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EAS.gif
The SST is a critical factor in the long term of the Arctic’s ice accumulation.
I wonder what Henry Ford wanted all that useless coal for? 😉
To warm the planet like the evil capitalist he was.
Another false prophet.
And what a waste of tax dollars.
and Arctic sea lanes were open for 8 months of the year back in the 1950s.
It appears that the Arctic Ice (summer ice) was not particularly extensive back in the late 1950s and may well be comparable to today..
When considering Arctic Ice, it is worth re-reading: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/
and looking at John Daly’s website.
The first non fiction book (well aprat from school text books) that I read was an account of the Nautilus (and the Skate) Arctic passages.
Give Wadham at least they made a ‘prediction ‘ they will be around for when it totally fails to happen .
Although the ‘expect’ gives them a out , they at least have not developed the climate ‘scientists’ typcial trick of making sure they predictions are so far a head in time that they can never be questioned has to why they got it so very wrong .
HEAT WAVE IN THE ARCTIC
Barrier Miner (Broken Hill, NSW : 1888 – 1954) Friday 8 July 1949 p 5 Article
ARCTIC CIRCLE HEAT WAVE
News (Adelaide, SA : 1923 – 1954) Wednesday 21 June 1950 p 18 Article
ARCTIC “HEAT WAVE.”
Huon Times (Franklin, Tas. : 1910 – 1933) Wednesday 7 February 1923 p 2 Article
Arctic Heat Wave
Townsville Daily Bulletin (Qld. : 1885 – 1954) Monday 29 June 1953 p 4 Article
ARCTIC HEATWAVE REPORTED
The Canberra Times (ACT : 1926 – 1995) Monday 20 July 1959 p 1 Article
Pssst… richard.
I got some prime beachfront property that I can let you in on before the local market gets red hot. Gotta snap it up before Trump gets wind of the deal. It’s gonna be the new Florida. We’ll call it… Endless Sunshine Beach in Florida North!
I think the area will be a big draw for cruise ships, too. Might want to do some commercial development as well as putting up that dream beach house you always wanted.
Opportunity is knocking. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor.
.
.
.
Wait! Wait! What?! When were those articles dated?!?
“HERALD” SATURDAY MAGAZINE Glaciers, Icebergs Meit As World Gets Warmer
The Sydney Morning Herald (NSW : 1842 – 1954) Saturday 29 September 1951 p 6 Article Illustrated
Earth Declared [Safe] From Glaciers
The Mail (Adelaide, SA : 1912 – 1954) Saturday 17 January 1925 p
NORTH POLE MELTING. CHANGE OF CLIMATE. MANY GLACIERS VANISHED.
The Maitland Daily Mercury (NSW : 1894 – 1939) Saturday 7 April 1923 p 2 Article
Anthony – I think you will find that Snow White’s Beaufort Sea ice resources are more on informative on this question than your own:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/
By way of a particularly picturesque example:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/LC8-Mackenzie-20150513-1600-1022×1024.jpg
Regarding this topic, the Far Western Arctic is uninteresting. What is interesting is the Arctic at lower longitudes.
The PIOMAS increase in volume does not make the ice safer, because it is all smashed together like an accordion when it is squeezed. There have been fewer people up there adventuring, as there are more pressure ridges, more cracks with open water, and “Ken-Borek-Air” called off its resupply and pick-up flights of Twin Otter aircraft, likely because the pans of flat ice are not reliable as landing strips.
https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/05/15/sea-ice-news-backing-off-the-ice/
The situation at the Russian base at Barneo was complicated when a jets landing gear was damaged.
https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/04/13/jets-landing-gear-fails-at-pole/
All in all I’d say the ice up there is going through some definite changes, and is thickening.
Further evidence that the sea-ice is going through definite changes can be seen in the tragic loss of two researchers out on the ice this spring. Despite years of experience they miscalculated the thickness of a refrozen lead, in an area where the is ice is by and large much thicker.
https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/sea-ice-report-some-sad-news/
This is the middle of the Beaufort Sea. This is the middle of May!
https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/600014900358979584
Yeah, Jim, look at all those melt ponds!
I do not respond to Jim Hunt AKA “Snow White” because he will not respond to courteous and polite requests that he explain where in Sam Hill he gets some of his “interesting” data. For example, last year he posted a NRL “ice thickness” map that showed significantly less ice than the NRL map of “ice thickness” posted on the WUWT Sea-Ice-Page. It eventually turned out that “Snow White’s” map was dredged from some sort of experimental model NRL was working on, which wasn’t complete, and whose maps were not intended to be used as real-time-representations of actual situations. However “Snow White” so relished all the attention he was getting that he preferred muddying-the-waters to honestly answering questions. Others had to do the work needed to arrive at the Truth.
If you desire clarity, avoid this fellow.
The break-up of ice floes in the Beaufort Sea is not uncommon, even in February when temperatures are at minus 40°. All that is needed is strong winds. The current creation-of-leads was caused by roaring winds between high pressure towards Alaska and a low pressure right on top of the Pole. These winds have also created a sort of polynya of open water along the arctic coast by the McKenzie River Delta, as they howl off-shore.
The winds are fading fast, but the WUWT Beaufort-sea-ice-page still shows ice drift of more than 30 cm/s in that area. If you go to the WUWT Sea-ice-page you can scroll down to “Arctic Satellite Imagery” and then zoom in to get the view “Snow White ” posted. Though this view makes you aware of the open water between grinding floes, it doesn’t show you the pressure ridges at the edges of these floes, formed when the floes slam together. If you visit often you will notice that the open water often grows swiftly more and more milky in hue, which indicates the open water is freezing over.
The most recently formed leads in the Beaufort Sea are not currently freezing over, as the off-shore winds are at around freezing, which is not cold enough to freeze salt water. However within the same storm at the Pole are sub-zero (sub -17° degree Celsius) temperatures, and these temperatures are freezing other leads over, even in the middle of May. (I get current polar temperatures by using the “initial” maps of various models such as the GFS or GEM, which I get from the maps produced by Dr. Ryan Maue at the Weatherbell site.)
Another good way to get an idea of the duress the ice is under is to watch the various cameras drifting about up there. “O-Buoy 9” is currently interesting, as it shows that a lead of open water has formed right where ice is piled up and the NRL map shows ice as being ten feet thick.
(See O-buoy 9 picture at bottom of post at: https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/05/17/arctic-sea-ice-news-ice-under-duress/ )
In conclusion I’d say it is a mistake to try to gauge whether the ice is increasing or decreasing by eyeballing areas of open water, or even by using “extent” graphs, especially when the PIOMAS graph shows increasing volume. Even if there is open water at the Pole this summer, and submarines can surface and take snapshots, in other areas the ice may be piled up in increasing heaps and jumbles.
We are witnessing a change, and ice under duress, and it should be fun to just sit back and observe.
even back in 1923-
“Formerly the waters about Spitz-
bergen have held an even summer
temperature in the neighbourhood of
5 degrees above freezing. This year
it rose as high as 28 degrees. Last
winter the ocean did not freeze over
even on the north coast of Spitzber-
gen. This is on the authority of Dr.
Hoel”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/123793215?searchTerm=arctic%20glaciers%20melting&searchLimits=
Caleb – What is your question exactly? Express it succinctly and I will provide an exceedingly courteous answer.