Headline: "Indications Arctic May Become Temperate Zone"

Record high temperatures in the Arctic and Alaska were seen in March 2015 (not part of the article, provided only for reference)
Record high temperatures in the Arctic and Alaska were seen in March 2015 (not part of the article, provided only for reference)

This article was transcribed from a newspaper clipping sent to me, it predicts a long term dramatic change may be possible in the Arctic, describing “unheard of temperatures reported in the Arctic zone”. Further, reports indicate “great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones” indicating glacier retreat. The report goes on to say that “At many points, well known glaciers have entirely disappeared” and “Everywhere, rocks are exposed that never before have been touched by the sun’s rays, and some large snow fields presumably everlasting, have disappeared entirely.

All indications are that the Arctic is undergoing and irreversible change. There’s only two problems:

1. Man-made global warming isn’t mentioned, in fact it wouldn’t even be a defined term yet for decades.

2. The article is from the Anchorage Daily Times, November 2nd, 1922.

arctic-temperature-zone-adt-1922You can read the entire article here:

ADT-article-1922 (PDF) h/t to WUWT reader Chris Beheim

And to show what goes around comes around again, we have this more recent but similar headline:

Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report

REYKJAVIK, Iceland — Get ready to order those beach umbrellas in Barrow. One of the leading authorities on the physics of northern seas is predicting an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2020.

That’s about two decades sooner than various models for climatic warming have indicated the Arctic might fully open.

“No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. “This is data.”

Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.

This data shows ice volume “is accelerating downward,” Wadhams said. “There doesn’t seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.

“By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. … (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free.”

Full story here: http://www.adn.com/article/20141102/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-un-releases-climate-report

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May 16, 2015 4:07 pm

Wow – what a load of crap.
How scientifically illiterate are people to swallow this garbage?

Juan Slayton
Reply to  CodeTech
May 16, 2015 4:23 pm

I think you’ve got a “two-fer”. The front page also shows continuing chaos in Mexico following the collapse of governance by the ‘cientificos’ under Porfirio Diaz. Pilots have a saying, “Never trust your life to an engine.” Perhaps politicians should be thinking, “Never trust your freedom to a scientist.”

Reply to  Juan Slayton
May 19, 2015 9:39 pm

Perhaps citizens should be thinking “Never trust politicians to provide accurate information on the findings of Science.” and “Never trust the intellectual integrity of those who reject the findings of Science.”

Reply to  CodeTech
May 16, 2015 9:37 pm

Wrong question, I think.
The real question is why are the self-declared smart ones so gullible?

Reply to  hunter
May 17, 2015 1:32 pm

They need to think they are in control , in short they more smart than they are.

Reply to  CodeTech
May 17, 2015 7:56 am

They forgot melting glaciers linked to the spread of salt arctic

Reply to  CodeTech
May 18, 2015 11:02 am

It was 1922, these people had an excuse. Now days however…

charles nelson
May 16, 2015 4:07 pm

Warmists….making it up as they go along…since 1987.

May 16, 2015 4:13 pm

“Ice volume is accelerating downward”.
Please see the last 3 years of PIOMASS data.

Bruce Cobb
May 16, 2015 4:14 pm

“No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. “This is data.”

He forgot to add, “fresh, hand-picked data, by myself”. Only the best data, you can be sure.
Honest. Draw a straight line to show the “trend”, and bingo, the ice goes kaput.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 16, 2015 6:47 pm

Are sinusoidal functions left out of applied mathematics now?

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
May 17, 2015 7:03 am

You can approximate a portion of a sinusoidal function by a straight line with over 97% accuracy. I do it often.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 16, 2015 8:43 pm

“No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. “This is data.”

Well that might be a first coming from a warmest. Apparently, our continued hammering of the on-going falsification of the climate models seems to be starting to win the day. To start a quote by saying no models were used, seems to me to be a good sign. And then of course he has to go and ruin it by saying that it’s even worse than the models say…
<blockquote.By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear.
Looks like an opportunity for another countdown clock widget here at WUWT and more ridicule that can be heaped on a warmist in October 2020. I plan to still be here.

Reply to  Boulder Skeptic
May 16, 2015 8:45 pm

oops messed up the second quote…

By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear.

Reply to  Boulder Skeptic
May 17, 2015 3:37 am

Wadmams is on record already as saying that the arctic would be ice-free during the summer in 2014, or perhaps 2013. (Likely he put in some prefix such as, “as early as”, which gets him off the hook when he is wrong. )

May 16, 2015 4:22 pm

[Wow – what a load of crap.] Seems codetech doesn’t like inconvenient facts. Climate science has been postulating the apocalypse from the beginning. Not much has changed in 100yrs

Reply to  Gonzo
May 16, 2015 4:40 pm

??? He is implying what you imply…

Reply to  Gonzo
May 17, 2015 11:42 am

Its a double down, he’s lost before, but double down and give a 5 year window, pray for a break…=validation

May 16, 2015 4:22 pm

And here was me thinking only people from previously obscure universities, such as East Anglia, were engaging in stupidity. Turns out all stupidity is spreading to more high profile ones as well. I predict that by 2020 the world’s Universities will be completely intelligence free.

Reply to  wickedwenchfan
May 16, 2015 5:06 pm

not “spreading” – that should be seepage in proper parlance of the day

Leonard Lane
Reply to  wickedwenchfan
May 16, 2015 10:05 pm

Wicked I will bet you there were free of intelligence by about 2008.

george e. smith
Reply to  wickedwenchfan
May 16, 2015 11:14 pm

Well I think that would be simply wonderful.
If the arctic warms up, then that will make it a more efficient radiator so it will do a better job at cooling the earth than it is doing now; which ain’t much.
So I’m all for a temperate arctic.

Reply to  wickedwenchfan
May 17, 2015 12:06 am

Turns out the real problem is AGS – Anthropgenic Global Stupidity…

Reply to  Leo Smith
May 18, 2015 8:55 am

AGS – I love it! Kudos to Leo Smith!

Just an engineer
Reply to  Leo Smith
May 19, 2015 9:14 am

Homo sapiens being replaced by Homo ignoramus!

May 16, 2015 4:25 pm

Convenient science for the ” inconvenient truth ” ?

May 16, 2015 4:28 pm

I know. With 2020 – 2015,Climatologist’s Five Year Plan….

Rob Ricket
May 16, 2015 4:31 pm

Meanwhile, side by cryosphere snow cover pics indicate that current northern hemisphere snow cover is larger than anything previously displayed.

May 16, 2015 4:36 pm

There is still hope.
He forecasted the Arctic would be ice-free in 2016 in 2013.
He has now increased this by 4 years.
In 2020 he will predict it in 8 years and in 2020 he will predict it in 16 years.
Applied mathematics; cnverget infinite series!

Reply to  RCS
May 16, 2015 6:29 pm

As in 1/x ??

May 16, 2015 4:39 pm

Seems to me that there is one constantly renewable resource.
Totally sustainable even.
No effort needed.
Human Stupidity.

Reply to  john robertson
May 17, 2015 6:41 am

Yeah. it’s a resource for the con men. Who was it that said, “There’s a sucker born every minute?” PT Barnum?

Berényi Péter
May 16, 2015 4:41 pm

This data shows ice volume “is accelerating downward,” Wadhams said. “There doesn’t seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.


Tom in Florida
Reply to  Berényi Péter
May 16, 2015 5:51 pm

Yes another anomaly with a base line that begins in 1979, By golly that must be the beginning of Earth’s history. Since I was born 28 years prior to that I guess I don’t really exist.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
May 17, 2015 5:56 am

No Tom, you do exist.
You and I are just prehistoric.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
May 17, 2015 12:50 pm

Antediluvian – at best!
Auto – a full couple of years younger than Tom in Florida!

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom in Florida
May 17, 2015 7:13 pm

Perhaps I should change my screen name to Otzi in Florida

Reply to  Berényi Péter
May 16, 2015 7:32 pm

I like to point out that 1980 to 2004 (+/- a few years) was the positive or warm phase of the PDO and AMO. In another 20-25 years we’ll have a true average from a complete cycle of +/- PDO & AMO. As you can see from the graph it does appear to be bottoming out around 2012 and starting to reverse. The oceans are so important to climate and get overlooked so much.

Reply to  TRM
May 17, 2015 12:54 pm

Sir, have you no idea of the value, and expense, of a sea view – so allowing the purchaser to overlook the ocean (s)
Auto, in a land-locked view . . . . .

Reply to  Berényi Péter
May 16, 2015 11:18 pm

It must be that this is not news, this is olds from 2012, at which point, by using a linear model incorrectly, you could get results like Wadhams got.
Funny how the alarmistic crap circulates and there is no MSM complaining about that.

richard verney
Reply to  Berényi Péter
May 17, 2015 2:34 am

I seem to recall that there are some satellite photos of the Arctic taken in about 1974 that show that ice extent in 1974 was less than in 2014.
One of the reason behind the global cooling scare in the mid to late 70s was the rapid increase in Arctic ice.
The 1979 data now used by the warmist camp, conveniently coincides with the peak of that increase.
In recent years, the Arctic has merely been returning to ice extent levels seen in the early 1970s, although it now looks like it may be once again increasing in extent for the next few years.
I seem to recall that there are some Navla bulletins in the 1880s expressing concern at Arctic ice loss.
It appears to be nothing more that than cycular changes.

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 8:20 am

Richard V – It seems to me that your recollection is faulty. Can you by any chance provide a link to these “satellite photos of the Arctic taken in about 1974”?

richard verney
Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 9:11 am

I would have to spend some time looking, but just a quick search reveals:comment image
Not quite what I was thinking of, but it too suggests that at the start of 1976 ice conditions were less extensive compared to today.

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 9:22 am

Richard V – That looks like the Antarctic to me. How about you?

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 11:27 am

You might be referring to IPCC FAR. I don’t know its status, but Steven Goddard likes it.

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 2:58 pm

“Steven Goddard”! Surely you jest Hugh?
Here’s the NSIDC’s version. 1953-2012!comment image

Reply to  Berényi Péter
May 17, 2015 1:46 pm

What we see at the end of the graph is the cold AMO beginning, if I interpret what I learned on weatherbell.com correctly. Arctic ice will cycle back up if history is any indicator, especially when the PDO also goes negative and we are in an atypically deep solar minimum.

Reply to  Berényi Péter
May 17, 2015 3:02 pm

You may care to consult the PIOMAS regional data:
You will no doubt immediately spot that sea ice volume everywhere that matters outside the CAB is below April 2013

May 16, 2015 4:44 pm

Hilarious, only problem is this garbage has the potential to wreck the world economy.

Reply to  AB
May 16, 2015 11:20 pm

But it is not so bad, we just need the economic tools to cash the people’s feeling of insecurity, and voila, the economy will grow. It is unjustified to let stupid people keep their money.
/not entirely sarc

george e. smith
Reply to  Hugh
May 17, 2015 3:04 pm

What potential; it already has.

May 16, 2015 4:48 pm

So long term dramatic change may be possible even without global warming or it’s latest marketing handle “climate change”. Who knew. I thought dramatic climate change was only possible after we started making plastics and driving cars and using plentiful and reliable electricity to spawn a computing and communication network of unprecedented proportions.
Learn something new everyday.
Sarcasm aside the problem when talking of possibilities especially long term possibilities is that literally anything is possible. Long term it is possible human DNA will mutate in way that a new species of humanity will appear that will be to us as we are today to chimps. The second coming is possible as well with Star Trek like transporters transporting people to heaven. The first possibility is more likely than the second but in the end both are nothing more than day dreaming. Day dreaming is absolute fun, a great pass time, and perhaps an evolutionary necessity however would not bet the house or even a cup of coffee and doughnut on long term day dreams.

Reply to  Alx
May 16, 2015 6:55 pm

Observing the beliefs of CAGW sheeple, I think human DNA is currently mutating toward the chimps.

Reply to  noaaprogrammer
May 16, 2015 9:22 pm

@noaa, wow is it getting that high?

May 16, 2015 5:09 pm
Reply to  Latitude
May 16, 2015 5:29 pm

I like the colors as I didn’t know that thicker ice was “hotter” ice.

Reply to  BFL
May 16, 2015 5:49 pm

Most definitely. When ice is really thick, it produces enough heat to boil the kettle.

Reply to  BFL
May 16, 2015 5:51 pm

Then you obviously haven’t heard “Suit and Tie” by Justin Timberlake

Reply to  Latitude
May 16, 2015 7:14 pm

didn’t know that the Mediterranean is covered by 3.75 meter thick ice.

Scott Scarborough
Reply to  lsvalgaard
May 16, 2015 7:27 pm

You must be color blind. The color shown in the Mediterranean is not on the Key. I don’t know why the Mediterranean is a different color than the gray shown in the rest of the oceans.

May 16, 2015 5:19 pm

Speaking of ice thickness and open water, my latest post also has a historical perspective, to counter some fear-mongering from a polar bear activist who thinks a bit of open water in May is a portend of doom (https://twitter.com/AEDerocher/status/598551439514804224 )
Beaufort Sea, to be exact, and the development of spring polynyas:
Dr. Susan Crockford, Zoologist

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  polarbearscience
May 16, 2015 8:39 pm

Thanks Susan.
As always, very informative.

Reply to  polarbearscience
May 18, 2015 8:30 am

Susan – Here’s a picture from on high of some no longer landfast sea ice breaking up as we speak. Amundsen Gulf to be exact. Early, or not?

Reply to  polarbearscience
May 21, 2015 9:45 am

Has the cat got your tongue as well as Caleb’s Susan?

May 16, 2015 5:43 pm

Does it mean that the Vikings will be able to return to Greeenland?

Reply to  beththeserf
May 17, 2015 3:57 am

We’d have to get it warm enough to grow barley in Greenland, which the Vikings were able to do. In order to do that we’d have to warm the winters, so the permafrost doesn’t get so thick, and can melt in the spring.
My guess is that in the Medieval Warm Period there was less ice in the Arctic Sea north of Greenland in September, and that it took longer to freeze those waters up in November and December. Until those waters froze up, north winds would have been more like maritime winds than arctic winds. Though Decembers would have been as dark, the freezing-up of the soil would have taken longer to start, and the soil would have had less ice to melt in the spring, and barley could have started growing earlier.
Another factor is that the water west of Greenland was apparently much warmer. The sagas mention a Viking swimming out to an island to get a goat for dinner, in waters that would swiftly cause hypothermia, if someone attempted to swim in them now.
Climate Scientists seem unwilling to admit how much warmer it had to be in the Medieval Warm Period to grow barley. I suppose it spoils their narrative.

May 16, 2015 5:44 pm

It appears that Columbus, Ohio will become the North Pole.

May 16, 2015 5:51 pm

on the extent of ice……….every year since 1979.
…and three people actually fell for itcomment image

Reply to  Latitude
May 16, 2015 7:06 pm

So they’re in a panic over the temperatures going up two degrees. But if that means an increase from -40 to -38, isn’t everything still frozen solid? Wouldn’t the average temp have to increase by something like 60 degrees for it to become a “temperate zone”?

richard verney
Reply to  Toby Nixon
May 17, 2015 2:38 am

The above plot is not temperature, but ice extent.
The ice extent in 1974/5 was less than it is in 2014.
There are some satellite photos backing that up.

Reply to  Latitude
May 16, 2015 8:31 pm

Aside from the obvious, does anyone know why the NSIDC data from 1974 is not shown on Cryosphere, since they have it ?
I’m curious, because when this treatment of the data started, wouldn’t that have been before the “let’s all commit scientific disingenuity in presentation of data” meme started ?

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  philincalifornia
May 17, 2015 2:29 pm

I believe that their excuse is the Satellite is a different model and technique, so they conveniently start in 1979 when it changed.

Billy Liar
Reply to  Latitude
May 17, 2015 1:53 pm

One is extent the other is volume.

Pamela Gray
May 16, 2015 7:13 pm

This indicates that the oceans were venting heat, IE cooling. When they cool, they warm us up.

M Seward
May 16, 2015 7:22 pm

“Expert predicts” – there’s your problem there.
True “experts” don’t do predictions, their genuine expertise telling them it is a dumb thing to do unless the matter at hand is something they have seen over and over again. In that case they are not so much “predicting” let alone “forecasting” as stating an expectation based on experience and subsequent rigorous analysis.
“Experience” and “rigourous” do not come into consideration regards CAGW and all its bastard offspring. CAGW is the province of witch doctors, shamans and alchemists, the latter being at the respectable end of the spectrum.

May 16, 2015 7:25 pm
Reply to  dbstealey
May 17, 2015 7:34 pm

Stealey, as usual, is posting absolute trash:
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. NSIDC has issued an update to Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis describing winter sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean.
“Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its maximum extent for the year on February 25 at 14.54 million square kilometers (5.61 million square miles). This year’s maximum ice extent is the lowest in the satellite record.”

Reply to  warrenlb
May 17, 2015 7:52 pm

warrenlb says that I’m…
posting absolute trash
warrenlb constantly posts absolute trash, day after day, with his ridiculous appeal to authority logical fallacies. But when he sees a few charts that cause him to get dizzy from cognitive dissonance, he desperately scrambles to find a quote that only compares “maximum extent” — as if that’s going to negate the fact that Arctic ice is on the rebound.
And of course, warrenlb only cherry-picks Arctic ice because of the temporary, natural dip over the past few years. But during those years global ice has remained at or above its long term average. The debate is about global warming. If it were not for his cherry-picking and logical fallacies, warrenlb’s post would look like this: [” … “].
warrenlb is a parody of the typical climate alarmist. He only pre-selects and cherry-picks those factoids he can find that support his confirmation bias. He’s clueless but he’s also amusing, because he’s so very predictable.
Finally, warrenlb never has answered my question: what would it take to change his mind, and admit that he is wrong? Twenty years with no global warming? Five more years of increasing Arctic ice? A mile thick glacier over Chicago again? What?
In warren’s case, nothing can convince him he’s wrong. That’s amusing, too.

Reply to  warrenlb
May 17, 2015 8:11 pm

Typical. Stealey….long on insults, short on data….none in this case. And NO denial of the Nsidc data. We’ve caught him in another flat out obfuscation.

Bill 2
Reply to  warrenlb
May 17, 2015 8:16 pm

One wonders what it would take for ol’ Smokey to change *his* mind…

May 16, 2015 7:35 pm

Could we call the Headline from 1922 to the present the great leap forward? Just asking.

Reply to  fossilsage
May 17, 2015 2:52 pm

Maybe a full circle has occurred?

nutso fasst
May 16, 2015 7:58 pm

Wouldn’t the $22 billion/year currently being spent to promote climate terror be better applied to the design of submersible cities?

Reply to  nutso fasst
May 17, 2015 1:56 am

If sea level rise is thought to be a factor, why not just NOT build cities close to the oceans? No need to design submersible ones!

Reply to  nutso fasst
May 17, 2015 3:28 pm

I would put the money into safeguarding existing power grids from solar events and building infrastructures to bring scrubbed coal power to Africa and the third world, thereby enabling the reversal of population growth which Asia has experienced in past decades. Controlling climate can only come from it’s full understanding (which I can not find any empirical accomplishment thereof). Until that time, it is foolish to destroy the present economic and governmental paradigm and replace it with a new experiment in civilization, based on the abstinence from normal human activity which happens to produce “carbon pollution”.

William Astley
May 16, 2015 8:19 pm

Current data and past temperature data is an excellent guide as to how the planet’s climate will change in the immediate future.
The first step to understanding what the past says to us, is to summarized the ‘lessons’ from the recent, later, and deep climatic data.
There is, there must be a physical explanation for everything that has happened in the recent and deep past.
1) Very recent data
What could have suddenly changed have changed post 2012 to explain the fact that there is now record sea in the Antarctic every month of the year, sudden cooling of the Greenland ice sheet, and a sudden increase in volume of sea ice/multi year sea ice in the Arctic? Why are there changes in both hemispheres? The changes appear to be cooling not warming.
Why does the cult of CAWG stop the data analysis of current data at 2012? Why does the cult of CAWG ignore the cyclic warming and cooling in the paleo record?
3) Last 11,000 years
Greenland Ice sheet warms and then the Greenland ice sheet cools. The changes correlate with solar cycle changes. (P.S. Next solar thread I am going to discuss solar gate and provide data/analysis/logic to support the assertion that there has been both solar gate and temperature gate.)
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper. William: The Greenland Ice data shows that have been 9 warming and cooling periods in the last 11,000 years. There was abrupt cooling 11,900 years ago (Younger Dryas abrupt cooling period when the planet went from interglacial warm to glacial cold with 75% of the cooling occurring in less than a decade and there was abrupt cooling 8200 years ago during the 8200 BP climate ‘event’).
3) Last 240,00 years.
342 warming/cooling cycles in the Southern Hemisphere. Same periodicity as the warming/cooling cycles in the Northern hemisphere. Same periodicity, same cause. Weird that the super large interglacial initiating and terminating events follow the same periodicity. I guess as there is no explanation as to what causes the super large interglacial initiating and terming events and the periodicity of the cycle no one is interested. Can’t happen again cause we don’t know why it happened in the past.

Davis and Taylor: “Does the current global warming signal reflect a natural cycle”
…We found 342 natural warming events (NWEs) corresponding to this definition, distributed over the past 250,000 years …. …. The 342 NWEs contained in the Vostok ice core record are divided into low-rate warming events (LRWEs; < 0.74oC/century) and high rate warming events (HRWEs; ≥ 0.74oC /century) (Figure). … …. "Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice – shelf history" and authored by Robert Mulvaney and colleagues of the British Antarctic Survey ( Nature , 2012, doi:10.1038/nature11391),reports two recent natural warming cycles, one around 1500 AD and another around 400 AD, measured from isotope (deuterium) concentrations in ice cores bored adjacent to recent breaks in the ice shelf in northeast Antarctica. ….

What external forcing function could be driving the earth’s climate cycles?

Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock by Stefan Rahmstorf
Many paleoclimatic data reveal a approx. 1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. (William: Ask me, ask me, frantic hand up, I know what the forcing function is and what to expect next.) A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12% over at least 23 cycles. This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system; oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in period.


Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
Direct observations of sunspot numbers are available for the past four centuries1,2, but longer time series are required, for example, for the identification of a possible solar influence on climate and for testing models of the solar dynamo. Here we report a reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past 11,400 years, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. We combine physics-based models for each of the processes connecting the radiocarbon concentration with sunspot number. According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.


May 16, 2015 8:51 pm

“The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.”
The good doctor can explain to the layperson why he omits the submarine data pre 1979 as these records go back to the 1950’s.

May 16, 2015 9:18 pm

No models here, this is data.
Garbage in, garbage out. It’s still “data”.

Joel O’Bryan
May 16, 2015 10:07 pm

The NW Passage is probably a NOGO this year if CFSv2 is correct

David Ball
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
May 17, 2015 7:13 am

Insert appropriate musical interlude here;

Reply to  David Ball
May 17, 2015 5:32 pm

I love this old stuff. He passed away at 84. too bad. beautiful

May 16, 2015 10:47 pm

If the Arctic was “undergoing an irreversible change” in 1922, why hasn’t the ice completely disappeared by now? No matter how many times alarmists get it wrong, they always insist that this time they have it right. By the time they are proven wrong again, they will already be off hyping a new doomsday scenario or recycling an old one. I’m just glad our seasons only last a few months. If they were decades long, these alarmists would forecast an accelerated and irreversible warming of the planet every summer and an irreversible ice age every winter. They seem to have no ability to comprehend natural cycles even though history is full of them.

James Allison
May 16, 2015 10:47 pm

My prediction: The Climate Change Alarmists will be intelligence free by 2020.

May 16, 2015 10:54 pm

“A key feature of antimatter is that when a particle of it makes contact with its ordinary-matter counterpart, both are instantly transformed into other particles in a process known as annihilation. This makes antimatter exceedingly rare. However, it has long been known that positrons are produced by the decay of radioactive atoms and by astrophysical phenomena, such as cosmic rays plunging into the atmosphere from outer space. In the past decade, research by Dwyer and others has shown that storms also produce positrons, as well as highly energetic photons, or γ-rays.
It was to study such atmospheric γ-rays that Dwyer, then at the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, fitted a particle detector on a Gulfstream V, a type of jet plane typically used by business executives. On 21 August 2009, the pilots turned towards what looked, from its radar profile, to be the Georgia coast. “Instead, it was a line of thunderstorms — and we were flying right through it,” Dwyer says. The plane rolled violently back and forth and plunged suddenly downwards. “I really thought I was going to die.”
During those frightening minutes, the detector picked up three spikes in γ-rays at an energy of 511 kiloelectronvolts, the signature of a positron annihilating with an electron.”

Reply to  ren
May 16, 2015 11:56 pm

Galactic radiation (GCR) was at that time a record high. Oulu indicated more than 6800 counts, when we now have less than 6200.

Reply to  ren
May 17, 2015 5:35 pm

Well science is always done well by terrified academics.!

Larry Wirth
May 16, 2015 11:35 pm

James, you’re dead wrong. They already are!

May 17, 2015 12:00 am

Well. 2020 is right around the bend. And we can’t do a thing to stop the climate change that menaces the left wing so much. So we might at well enjoy it.

richard verney
Reply to  Pat Ch
May 17, 2015 2:43 am

What’s not to like about a summer ice free Arctic?
It opens up some much needed valuable resources.
Bring it on, the planet is way too cool and C02.levels are very much on the low side, at 260ppm they were almost critically low.

May 17, 2015 12:19 am

Now is the time to sell real estate to the greenies, call Baffin Bay the new Florida and you will make a fortune.

Reply to  old44
May 17, 2015 8:03 am

I think the 1922 Anchorage Daily Times article is more wishful thinking than fact.

May 17, 2015 12:27 am

Not many take Wadhams seriously. Gavin has strongly objected to his methane alarmism:

richard verney
Reply to  Espen
May 17, 2015 2:49 am

He is no longer taken seriously by either side of the debate, with good reason.
How can the Arctic (even if it were to lose its summer ice) have a temperate climate?
Does the man even know the meaning of this term of art? One cannot imagine that he does.
There is just insufficient hours of sunlight, with large enough grazing angles, for this to happen. The Arctic sun will always be weak.

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 8:12 am

Please read this article carefully. He doesn’t say that it will be a temperate zone, it was a 1922 article that made that claim. In fact he goes out of his way to say that there will still be a lot of ice in the arctic, but that ships could pass between it. He strongly implies the arctic won’t be temperate any time soon.

May 17, 2015 12:37 am

“In 2013-2014, a wavy polar vortex allowed frigid Arctic winds into the central and eastern United States, and the Great Lakes region endured some of the coldest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history. These frigid conditions coincided with a sudden rise in water levels, especially in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron, releasing stress on the shipping industry and shoreline property owners.
Hydrograph for Lakes Michigan and Huron shows annual average water levels (black) from 1860 through 2014. Monthly levels for the beginning of 2015 (January through April) are shown in blue. (GLERL)
However, these sudden fluctuations spurred questions in minds of both Great Lakes communities and scientists alike. Higher water levels released some of the strain on the Great Lakes economy, but researchers at GLERL set out to investigate if the shifts seen in the Great Lakes were a signal of long-term change or just a short-term fluctuation. The study investigates interseasonal relationships in Lake Michigan’s water temperatures to better understand if the 2013-2014 winter is a signal that the period of low water levels is coming to an end.
“We were bombarded by questions,” said Drew Gronewold, Ph.D., the lead author on the study. ”Everybody wanted to know if the cold winter and water level surge meant something in the long term.”

May 17, 2015 12:39 am

Only slightly off topic but …….
Listening to the Met/Bbc weather forecast for Scotland this morning.They are forecasting fairly extensive snow above 3000 feet and at lower levels with a wind chill of -5c in strong gales for Sunday and Monday.
My mind goes back to March 2010 and the prediction of that [other Academic] giant of British forecasting Dr David Vine “children are not going to know what snow is anymore”
Yes British Universities are not going to know what truth is any more.
That is my cast iron prediction – and Rory McIlroy is the greatest !

Reply to  waterside4
May 17, 2015 6:18 am

So, when does Rory surpass Jack?

May 17, 2015 12:45 am

Greenland has now starting to melt its snow-cover -a month later than usually. It is exceptional!
1% of the area started to melt the 16th of may.

May 17, 2015 12:54 am

Long term climate changes (excluding solar variability) is determined by ocean currents global heat distribution. Ocean currents flow is predetermined by the Earth’s rotation, oceanic bathymetry and major coastal features.
In contrast to fast wind driven surface currents, deep sea currents are slow and sedate affair. This in my view, makes the deep currents susceptible to the tectonic events. This means that the major global climate changes are determined by tectonics of the large oceanic areas subjected to tectonic activity.
The notable areas with the power to the influence and actually change global climate are large submarine areas of the far North Atlantic-Arctic ( generator of the AMO and the 60 year cycles) and the Equatorial Australo-Asia Pacific (generator of the El Nino)
Global gravity anomaly map clearly indicates the areas of the global tectonic instability
Of course, not many will agree, but the data available I have looked at, it does appear to confirm the above.
[What sensor(s) were used to create the gravity anomaly map? GRACE satellites? .mod]

richard verney
Reply to  vukcevic
May 17, 2015 2:58 am

It should read: ‘Long term climate changes is determined by ocean currents global heat distribution.’
One cannot emphasise enough, that it is all about the oceans and it is therefore unfortunate that we have so little high quality data on the oceans (beofe ARGO all ocean temp data is simply junk, and ARGO lacks spatial coverage, is of very short duration, and we are yet to determine whether there are inherent in built biases due to the free floating nature of the buoys that are swept along with currents which currents are density/temperature dependent).
Variations in solar energy going onto the oceans plays a major role in the warming of the oceans and their ability to distribute heat. The most obvious variability is clouds (in 3d, their composition, and the time of formation and dissipation).
Whether solar variability over and above the relatively small fluctuations in TSI has a role to play, we are yet to determine, but the prospects appear good that within the next 20 or so years we should have a better understanding of that factor.

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 5:11 am

yep: ‘Long term climate changes are determined by ocean currents global heat distribution.’
I suppose we have to accept (reluctantly) that the TSI variability is just not large enough. However, solar influence can not be totally ignored. My most recent search through various data suggests that there is something odd going on: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SST-AMO.htm
Last graph shows that the ‘effective’ positive pulses are synchronised with the even numbered sunspot cycles, while the ‘inactive’ lower amplitude are synchronised with the odd sunspot cycles.
There is also (disputed) statement from the NASA’s press release:
Raeder explains: “For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway.”

Billy Liar
Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 2:14 pm

GRACE seems to be red hot at finding mountains whether they on land or under the ocean. Can it do anything else?

Reply to  richard verney
May 17, 2015 3:03 pm

Yes. The website says:
The primary science objective of GRACE is to measure the Earth’s gravity field and it’s time variability with unprecedented accuracy. The secondary science objective is to obtain approximately 150 very precise globally distributed vertical temperature and humidity profiles of the atmosphere per day using the GPS radio occultation technique.
But ….
For the last few days there was a big switch off:
The GRACE-A and -B Microwave Assemblies (MWA) and Accelerometer Instrument Control Units (ICU) were switched-off on:
11 May 2015, 07:05 UTC: GRACE-B MWA
11 May 2015, 07:27 UTC: GRACE-A MWA
13 May 2015, 06:36 UTC: GRACE-A and GRACE-B ICU
It is a great loss to the advancement of good science !

Reply to  vukcevic
May 17, 2015 4:52 am

Yes, Grace has two maps on the utexas.edu webpage
I quoted the second higher resolution map, the stretched version, it also gives a better view of the Atlantic, main area of my interest, than one on the utexas.edu.

Reply to  vukcevic
May 17, 2015 10:32 pm

AMO cycle almost exactly 60 years.

May 17, 2015 2:11 am

Wadhams doesn’t seem to realise that the North Atlantic Oscillation goes negative during summers with less sea ice extent, while the IPCC models say that increased GHG forcing of the climate will make the NAO increasingly positive.

Reply to  ulriclyons
May 17, 2015 2:38 am

Wadhams together with most of the climate science community, failed to recognise that for the far N. Atlantic, the tectonic and atmospheric pressure (the north leg of the NAO) oscillations are synchronised, but precede the SST by number of years; since both are on the decline the SST is likely to follow:
The SST is a critical factor in the long term of the Arctic’s ice accumulation.

May 17, 2015 2:23 am

I wonder what Henry Ford wanted all that useless coal for? 😉

Reply to  TinyCO2
May 17, 2015 7:57 am

To warm the planet like the evil capitalist he was.

May 17, 2015 3:06 am

Another false prophet.
And what a waste of tax dollars.

May 17, 2015 3:31 am

and Arctic sea lanes were open for 8 months of the year back in the 1950s.

richard verney
Reply to  richard
May 17, 2015 9:42 am

It appears that the Arctic Ice (summer ice) was not particularly extensive back in the late 1950s and may well be comparable to today..
When considering Arctic Ice, it is worth re-reading: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/
and looking at John Daly’s website.
The first non fiction book (well aprat from school text books) that I read was an account of the Nautilus (and the Skate) Arctic passages.

May 17, 2015 3:39 am

Give Wadham at least they made a ‘prediction ‘ they will be around for when it totally fails to happen .
Although the ‘expect’ gives them a out , they at least have not developed the climate ‘scientists’ typcial trick of making sure they predictions are so far a head in time that they can never be questioned has to why they got it so very wrong .

May 17, 2015 3:56 am

Barrier Miner (Broken Hill, NSW : 1888 – 1954) Friday 8 July 1949 p 5 Article
News (Adelaide, SA : 1923 – 1954) Wednesday 21 June 1950 p 18 Article
Huon Times (Franklin, Tas. : 1910 – 1933) Wednesday 7 February 1923 p 2 Article
Arctic Heat Wave
Townsville Daily Bulletin (Qld. : 1885 – 1954) Monday 29 June 1953 p 4 Article
The Canberra Times (ACT : 1926 – 1995) Monday 20 July 1959 p 1 Article

Reply to  richard
May 17, 2015 9:51 am

Pssst… richard.
I got some prime beachfront property that I can let you in on before the local market gets red hot. Gotta snap it up before Trump gets wind of the deal. It’s gonna be the new Florida. We’ll call it… Endless Sunshine Beach in Florida North!
I think the area will be a big draw for cruise ships, too. Might want to do some commercial development as well as putting up that dream beach house you always wanted.
Opportunity is knocking. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor.
Wait! Wait! What?! When were those articles dated?!?

May 17, 2015 3:59 am

“HERALD” SATURDAY MAGAZINE Glaciers, Icebergs Meit As World Gets Warmer
The Sydney Morning Herald (NSW : 1842 – 1954) Saturday 29 September 1951 p 6 Article Illustrated
Earth Declared [Safe] From Glaciers
The Mail (Adelaide, SA : 1912 – 1954) Saturday 17 January 1925 p
The Maitland Daily Mercury (NSW : 1894 – 1939) Saturday 7 April 1923 p 2 Article

May 17, 2015 4:18 am

Anthony – I think you will find that Snow White’s Beaufort Sea ice resources are more on informative on this question than your own:
By way of a particularly picturesque example:

James at 48
Reply to  Jim Hunt
May 18, 2015 4:54 pm

Regarding this topic, the Far Western Arctic is uninteresting. What is interesting is the Arctic at lower longitudes.

May 17, 2015 4:18 am

The PIOMAS increase in volume does not make the ice safer, because it is all smashed together like an accordion when it is squeezed. There have been fewer people up there adventuring, as there are more pressure ridges, more cracks with open water, and “Ken-Borek-Air” called off its resupply and pick-up flights of Twin Otter aircraft, likely because the pans of flat ice are not reliable as landing strips.
The situation at the Russian base at Barneo was complicated when a jets landing gear was damaged.
All in all I’d say the ice up there is going through some definite changes, and is thickening.

Reply to  Caleb
May 17, 2015 5:02 am

Further evidence that the sea-ice is going through definite changes can be seen in the tragic loss of two researchers out on the ice this spring. Despite years of experience they miscalculated the thickness of a refrozen lead, in an area where the is ice is by and large much thicker.

Reply to  Caleb
May 17, 2015 12:27 pm

This is the middle of the Beaufort Sea. This is the middle of May!

Billy Liar
Reply to  Caleb
May 17, 2015 2:28 pm

Yeah, Jim, look at all those melt ponds!

Reply to  Caleb
May 17, 2015 8:55 pm

I do not respond to Jim Hunt AKA “Snow White” because he will not respond to courteous and polite requests that he explain where in Sam Hill he gets some of his “interesting” data. For example, last year he posted a NRL “ice thickness” map that showed significantly less ice than the NRL map of “ice thickness” posted on the WUWT Sea-Ice-Page. It eventually turned out that “Snow White’s” map was dredged from some sort of experimental model NRL was working on, which wasn’t complete, and whose maps were not intended to be used as real-time-representations of actual situations. However “Snow White” so relished all the attention he was getting that he preferred muddying-the-waters to honestly answering questions. Others had to do the work needed to arrive at the Truth.
If you desire clarity, avoid this fellow.
The break-up of ice floes in the Beaufort Sea is not uncommon, even in February when temperatures are at minus 40°. All that is needed is strong winds. The current creation-of-leads was caused by roaring winds between high pressure towards Alaska and a low pressure right on top of the Pole. These winds have also created a sort of polynya of open water along the arctic coast by the McKenzie River Delta, as they howl off-shore.
The winds are fading fast, but the WUWT Beaufort-sea-ice-page still shows ice drift of more than 30 cm/s in that area. If you go to the WUWT Sea-ice-page you can scroll down to “Arctic Satellite Imagery” and then zoom in to get the view “Snow White ” posted. Though this view makes you aware of the open water between grinding floes, it doesn’t show you the pressure ridges at the edges of these floes, formed when the floes slam together. If you visit often you will notice that the open water often grows swiftly more and more milky in hue, which indicates the open water is freezing over.
The most recently formed leads in the Beaufort Sea are not currently freezing over, as the off-shore winds are at around freezing, which is not cold enough to freeze salt water. However within the same storm at the Pole are sub-zero (sub -17° degree Celsius) temperatures, and these temperatures are freezing other leads over, even in the middle of May. (I get current polar temperatures by using the “initial” maps of various models such as the GFS or GEM, which I get from the maps produced by Dr. Ryan Maue at the Weatherbell site.)
Another good way to get an idea of the duress the ice is under is to watch the various cameras drifting about up there. “O-Buoy 9” is currently interesting, as it shows that a lead of open water has formed right where ice is piled up and the NRL map shows ice as being ten feet thick.
(See O-buoy 9 picture at bottom of post at: https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/05/17/arctic-sea-ice-news-ice-under-duress/ )
In conclusion I’d say it is a mistake to try to gauge whether the ice is increasing or decreasing by eyeballing areas of open water, or even by using “extent” graphs, especially when the PIOMAS graph shows increasing volume. Even if there is open water at the Pole this summer, and submarines can surface and take snapshots, in other areas the ice may be piled up in increasing heaps and jumbles.
We are witnessing a change, and ice under duress, and it should be fun to just sit back and observe.

Reply to  Caleb
May 18, 2015 2:44 am

even back in 1923-
“Formerly the waters about Spitz-
bergen have held an even summer
temperature in the neighbourhood of
5 degrees above freezing. This year
it rose as high as 28 degrees. Last
winter the ocean did not freeze over
even on the north coast of Spitzber-
gen. This is on the authority of Dr.

Reply to  Caleb
May 18, 2015 8:33 am

Caleb – What is your question exactly? Express it succinctly and I will provide an exceedingly courteous answer.

May 17, 2015 6:00 am

“Man made climate change” – very important remark, since, as shown here – http://climate-ocean.com/images/Lect/_8_EN.pdf – naval war had an important influence over the Arctic climate.

Ron Clutz
May 17, 2015 7:36 am

Most people fail to appreciate the huge heat losses at the Arctic pole. Mark Brandon has an excellent post on this at his wonderful blog, Mallemaroking.org.
By his calculations the sensible heat loss in Arctic winter ranges 200-400 Wm2. The chart below shows quite nicely how in the summer with air temperatures above freezing, the heat exchange stops. It can briefly reverse with wind circulation and air warmer than the water.comment image
“Then the heat loss over the 2×109 m2 of open water in that image is a massive 600 GW – yes that is Giga Watts – 600 x 109 Watts.
If you want to be really inappropriate then in 2 hours, that part of the ocean lost more energy than it takes to run the London Underground for one year.”

Reply to  Ron Clutz
May 17, 2015 11:18 pm

A strong polar vortex in the winter also prevents heat transfer. But when there is a growth anomalies of ozone, vortex becomes “leaky”

May 17, 2015 8:00 am

…from the Norwegian Polar Institute’s Jan-Gunnar Winther:
“We have almost no data from the Arctic Ocean in winter – with few exceptions….”
Q: So who can claim theories/hypotheses based on this?
A: Those funded to do so.

Reply to  Tim
May 17, 2015 9:12 am

What Breitbart doesn’t want you to know about polar ice:

May 17, 2015 8:03 am

Don’t you guys know that more sea ice means warming like in the Antarctic? Then logically less sea ice also means warming. Haven’t you guys been reading the news on climate change?

May 17, 2015 8:05 am

Why in another 10 years disaster will strike if we don’t have a government like China’s, which is a model for controlling climate change. And if the Arctic is not ice free in 2013 (which was predicted in 2000) then certainly in 2020. And if it isn’t ice free in 2020 then definitely by 2030….. The window is closing when we can prevent the most damaging effects of AGW. / sarc

May 17, 2015 8:20 am

With a population growth rate of 75 million annually, there’s a lot of newbies out there that will be suckered in. They didn’t get the old news bulletins. A growing target market for any new ‘fear bulletins’.

May 17, 2015 8:42 am

Arctic Sea Ice size is sinusoidal, following closely the PDO/AMO 30-yr warm/cool cycles.
They last peaked around 1980, and hit minimum in 2007. The PDO entered its 30-yr cool cycle in 2008 and the AMO warm cycle maxed out in 2007. The AMO enters its 30-yr cool cycle around 2022, so we should see Arctic sea ice slowly grow for the next 30 years or so.

Not Chicken Little
May 17, 2015 8:52 am

These people are just bat-guano crazy. Uh, wouldn’t the fact that the Earth’s axis is inclined some 23 1/2 degrees preclude this? The poles will always be much colder if they don’t get as much sun as the tropics. Of course that assumes that the Sun is responsible for climate and not Mankind and that’s believed only by the “deniers”!

May 17, 2015 9:03 am

“It was discovered that warm Atlantic water in the depth reaches the pole, and that in the abyss of the Arctic Ocean water temperature increased due to the heat of the Earth”

May 17, 2015 9:51 am

While it’s just one spot about 140 miles south of the Arctic Circle, linear regression on the break-up dates of the Nenana Ice Classic show the break-ups dates trending earlier by about 6 days in total over the last 90 years – which, at the same rate, mean insufficient ice to support the tripod in perhaps only 1,500 years’ time….
We’re all doomed I tell you! Or perhaps there is some other explanation …

May 17, 2015 10:38 am

Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report
REYKJAVIK, Iceland — Get ready to order those beach umbrellas in Barrow. One of the leading authorities on the physics of northern seas is predicting an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2020
I would say the chances of this happening are zero!!!!!
Instead I bet by 2020 Arctic Sea Ice will be above normal and global Sea Ice will be above normal.

Walt D.
May 17, 2015 6:07 pm

“Indications Arctic May Become Temperate Zone”.
Particularly during the winter.

Two Labs
May 17, 2015 10:28 pm

To be fair, Alaska, at that time, was promoting immigration and homesteading. Not a lot of people were being attracted to the cold weather. So…

May 18, 2015 4:47 am
James at 48
May 18, 2015 4:50 pm

2020 eh? 5 years and a few months to try and hit that prog.

Dr. Strangelove
May 18, 2015 11:05 pm

Northwest Passage, summer 1944
“Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first. He made the trip in 86 days to sail back from Halifax, Nova Scotia to Vancouver, British Columbia. He set a record for traversing the route in a single season.”
Summer 2013
“The Northwest Passage after decades of so-called global warming has a dramatic 60% more Arctic ice this year than at the same time last year. The future dreams of dozens of adventurous sailors are now threatened. A scattering of yachts attempting the legendary Passage are caught by the ice, which has now become blocked at both ends and the transit season may be ending early.”

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