Guest essay by David Archibald
Pierre Gosselin of NoTricksZone has a post by Mike Brakey on NOAA adjustments of the temperature record of Lewiston-Auburn, Maine. In short, the NOAA are shameless liars. Their cooling of the past to keep the global warming meme alive reminds me of the old Soviet joke – the future is known, it is the past that keeps changing. The NOAA can’t be accused of not thinking big. They lowered the average temperature of Lewiston-Auburn in 1913 by 4.0°F (2.2°C). But the perversion and corruption of the temperature record to serve dark ends is something that we are inured to. One of Mr Brakey’s complaints about the NOAA perversion of the temperature record is that he can’t trust official figures any more in serving his clients.
There was a paragraph in the post though that lit up like a beacon:
A BLACK SWAN event is forming in 2015 (see chart to right). Based on the first four months of 2015, there is an excellent chance 2015 Maine temperature might average, on an annual basis, well under 43.0°F. Not only have Maine temperatures been on a decline since 1998, we are now seeing temperatures reminiscent of the bitter turn of the early 1900s.
No chart was included but we have our own. Hanover, New Hampshire is just to the west of Maine and has a temperature record going back to 1835. This is what that looks like:
Mr Brakey wrote that the 2015 Maine temperature might average “well under 43°F” (6.1°C). That is marked on the chart. That temperature of 43°F would take us back to the 1970s. “Well under” would take us back to the mid-19th century. The latter result is the promise of the three year difference in solar cycle length between Solar Cycle 22 and Solar Cycle 23 under Friis-Christensen and Lassen theory. That was last written up on WUWT in July 2011. This is a graph from that post:
It is very gratifying to see this prediction on track. The ocean to the east is also cooling as shown by this graph from Professor Humlum’s Climate4you website:
The North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N) has been cooling for the last decade. The rate of cooling is just as fast as the rate of rise of the late 20th century. At that rate we will be back to Little Ice Age conditons lickety-split.
Lastly, a warning. Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics is predicting another “Garden of Eden” growing season for the midwest agricultural belt in 2015 and doubtless his forecast will prove correct. Those conditions won’t last forever though.
David Archibald, a visiting fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery, 2014)
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Purely an aside, but if you predict a “Black Swan” event and it happens, then it’s not a Black Swan event, is it? (And Taleb’s whole Black Swan Thesis was such a crock anyway….)
Not following why our forecast is a warning. We have correctly hit the last 2 wetter, cooler summers in this area, and this summer will really put the nail in the coffin of the 3 year dry spell that was even WORSE in the early 50s than the early part of this decade for Texas. The warning if you want is that the Pacific, which is very similar to the late 1950s, will be back in it cold state again in a few years ( this time with the atlantic) so it will dry again down there. But I dont know if saying a great growing season in those areas what the hysterics were screaming dust bowl again should be called a warning.. more like nature doing what nature always does..balancing
Others have noted this, but I haven’t seen any changes in the data from Cryosphere Today for sea ice totals, ets.in the NH or the SH. for it seems like weeks …- anyone know why?
Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere etc. …no changes for weeks…
I’m not sure I get it. (I’m a little confused) – Is the Hanover, New Hampshire chart (the first illustration) actual data, or adjusted/homogenized data? If actual data, it shows a steady rise in temperature…
I think the data from the Mt Washington weather station shows a much less rise in temp from 1935…
I’ll try to find the link for the Mt Washington weather station…
Could be a readjustment in the way they are calculating the Cryosphere values. Perhaps they changed the graph links and WUWT has the old links?
Just so that I’m up to speed on the latest solar/climate science here, Brother David. Is the Friis-Christensen and Lassen theory back in vogue, or did it never go away? I thought it had gone the same way as the ‘Cosmic ray’ theory and the Dodo.
It must be the same Lassen who said: “since around 1990 the type of Solar forcing that is described by the solar cycle length model no longer dominates the long-term variation of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature”.
And of their theory has been written:
“In 2009, a number of leading experts, including one Nobel laureate, concluded that the graphs of Friis-Christensen and Svensmark showing apparent correlations between global warming, sunspots and cosmic rays were deeply flawed. Friis-Christensen agreed that any correlation between sunspots and global warming that he may have identified in the 1991 study has since broken down. There is, he said, a clear “divergence” between the sunspots and global temperatures after 1986, which shows that the present warming period cannot be explained by solar activity alone”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eigil_Friis-Christensen
‘There is, he said, a clear “divergence” between the sunspots and global temperatures after 1986, which shows that the present warming period cannot be explained by solar activity alone”.’
Apart from the most dedicated “warmists” does anyone believe that the current warming period can be explained by a single “forcing”?
One can add Canada and Environment Canada to the nations who seem to have made downward adjustments to annual climate data going back as far as 1948. For example ,in the 2013 annual report , the 23 of the coldest years with negative departures or anomalies , 15 or 65% of the years seem to have been adjusted downward by 0.3 to 0.1 C from the 2008 annual report .
Maine is getting colder but so is most of North America since 1998, especially eastern North America.
2015 was the coldest January through March in the entire record in the 10 Northeast States and DC as reported by ICECAP
The same can be said about the Eastern Canadian provinces and which includes cities like Montreal, Quebec, Toronto, Ottawa . February 2015 was the coldest ever recorded in many parts of these provinces .Charlottown , PEI had 18.1 feet of snow this past winter., the most ever recorded.
If AMO continues to decline as it is doing, temperatures in the US North east and the Atlantic Provinces will continue to cool, and so will Maine.
I can believe that earth may get colder and growing conditions get worse. But I do not believe there is any possibility of food shortages as a result. Certainly in North America over half the land that was farmed 120 years ago is not farmed now. It would not be hard to return that land to production. Also GM food offers many ways to respond to changes in climate or to other unforseen events, e.g a new pest.
Six years ago i took an interest in global warming as topic. I participated in discussions here and at
(un)realclimate, As soon as i was disparaged for even questioning dogma and had a few of my comments deleted there I became a skeptic. The IPCC and those in the “climate” community today become corrupt and will do anything to protect their funding. I wouldn’t believe one of them if the told me the sun had risen.
Serious Question to the poster and the commenters:
Are their no consistent periodic snap shots, separately stored, of the NOAA historical temperature data? Could such a thing be cooperatively reconstructed?
Does it make sense to have a “job” that takes the NOAA data and sticks it onto an Amazon AWS/S3 file for “future generations”?
I would have assumed that something like this would have already been being done. If it is not, does it make sense to do so? What data sets should be snap-shot’d once/month? How far upstream can we grab that data? I’m guessing that the less aggregated the data is, the less chance of it having been “processed”.
William A.,
You could start here:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip
There are pull down menus in other parts of the site that let you select different years.
Thank you.
And, I somehow commented on the wrong thread. I’m not sure how that happened, actually.
The post I was trying to comment on was making the claim that NOAA was adjusting their historical data. And that this had been revealed by comparing the currently published data (from NOAA), and one individuals capture of the “same” data that had been published in 2013.
I’m wondering if there is a single consolidated historical archive of NOAA (and the like) data. And, if not, whether there would be a benefit to taking a snapshot of the data every month. Just in case.
In an ideal world, you shouldn’t have to worry about the source data changing with no explanation. Apparently we don’t live there.
I’ll go make my comment where I originally intended to, but I’d love to hear your thoughts about that anyway.
Thanks!
One of Mr Brakey’s complaints about the NOAA perversion of the temperature record is that he can’t trust official figures any more in serving his clients.
It’s not just NOAA in the US. It’s also many other government agencies in numerous countries all doing the same thing … and uniquely, its rich countries dominated by Europeans societies… from the UK to Australia. These governments are party to scientific fraud relating to climate data, without politicians really appreciating the problem and who are too scared to criticise government agencies.
There is a reason why governments don’t want to even consider the satellite temperature data. The satellite temperature data represents ‘an inconvenient truth’ that blows away the flawed global warming doctrine. And that threatens the outcome of their Paris climate conference in December 2015.