The Week That Was: 2015-01-10 (January 10, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Fooling Nature? Before the UN Climate Conference in Peru in December, several US government agencies, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA-GISS), guessed at the average global temperatures for 2014, stating 2014 will be the hottest year on record. They guessed wrong.
As discussed in last week’s TWTW, atmospheric temperature measurements by satellites, confirmed by weather balloons, are the only comprehensive global temperature measurements existing. One of the two atmospheric temperature reporting entities, Remote Sensing Systems, reported that 2014 was not the hottest year ever (since 1978, when satellite measurements began), only the sixth warmest. This week, the other reporting entity, the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, reported that 2014 was the third warmest since 1979, barely edging out several other years such as 2002, 2005, and 2013.
Contrary to forecasts by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly the highly influential Fourth Assessment Report (AR-4) in 2007, it has been over a decade since there has been any statistically significant increase in global temperatures (some assert over 18 years for surface temperatures), even though according to NOAA, carbon dioxide CO2 concentrations have increased 8.4% since 1999, from 368.04 parts per million (ppm) to 398.78 ppm (December numbers). Very simply, adding CO2 to the atmosphere is not causing temperature change as previously claimed. Further, the plateau in temperatures shows that global climate models cannot be used for reliable prediction.
Yet, it is predictions from global climate models that has created the fear of global warming and prompted energy policies in various countries that can only be called unnecessary, ill-conceived, and economically destructive. These policies include Germany’s Energiewende, policies under the UK’s Climate Change Act of 2008, and the US Administration’s Clean Power Plan.
Some of those defending the IPCC and its models, blame the failure of pronounced warming on the failure of an El Niño to materialize. However, there was/is an El Niño but it was not as intense as some thought it would be. If temperatures, as projected by the models, depend on El Niños, which are natural events that apparently cannot be predicted by the models, then there is something further wrong with the models.
The next big UN climate conference is scheduled in December of 2015. This will probably be the last opportunity for the Administration to make a big international impact on the global warming/climate change issue. It will be interesting to see how far certain government agencies will go in guessing future temperatures and other climate variables. A Congress controlled by Republicans who are generally hostile climate control schemes, may cause some agencies to re-think their approach. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Measurement Issues, and http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
Quote of the Week: You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool Nature!
all the people all the time. Apologies to Abraham Lincoln
Number of the Week: 79,066
Intense Storms: In the US, one of the major publically discussed components of global warming/climate change is the intensification of storms – hurricanes (in the Atlantic region), cyclones (in the Pacific region) tornadoes, etc. A warming caused by increased CO2 should impact most on Polar Regions, thus decreasing the temperature gradient between the cold Polar Regions and the hot Tropics. The net effect should be a reduction in mid-latitude storm intensity, not an increase. Yet, the general press and global warming promoters continue to stress storm events as examples of global warming/climate change.
WeatherBell Analytics LLC has produced a graph of 4 decades of accumulated tropical cyclone energy (ACE) (24 month running sums) ending in December 31, 2014, both for the Northern Hemisphere and for the globe. Since 2008, storm energy for the Northern Hemisphere and globally has been low, far below peak periods such as 1993-95 and 1997-98. The fear that increased CO2 will cause more intense storms appears misplaced.
According to reports, in an interview with Die Zeit German climate modeler Hans von Storch stresses there has been no intensification in storm activity. All activity is within the range of natural variability. Von Storch is a Professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and Director of the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany. He states it is implausible that future storms will increase in intensity “Our climate models do not lead us to expect it.”
According to the translator: “In summary, von Storch sees 1) no data supporting a trend of stronger, more frequent North Sea storms, 2) models do not show an increasing trend, 3) recent storms have been within the range of natural variability, and 4) the [Global Warming] pause has been substantial enough that it has shifted more focus onto natural factors.” See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and second figure: http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php#!prettyPhoto
Clean Power Plan Is Unconstitutional? As reported in TWTW last week, a liberal, legal icon, Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe, stated his view that the Administration’s clean power plan was unconstitutional. Already, there were rumors that some career bureaucrats in the EPA were concerned that the EPA was going too far in the Administration’s war on coal. Now, the EPA has delayed the application of the plan to consolidate regulations on all categories of coal-fired power plants. See Articles # 1 and # 2, and links under EPA and other Regulators on the March.
John Brignell: The author of the web site “Number Watch” requested TWTW inform his readers that he is still alive. Due to software issues, his web site has been down. Further, his wife needed medical attention. We hope his wife is better, and John continues with his web site and its piercing wit.
Brignell interrupted his career in measurement in science and engineering to write two books addressing the abuse of measurement in research and in establishing government policies: Sorry, wrong number! (2000) and The epidemiologists: Have they got scares for you! (2004). Of particular concern is the confusion in believing that weak statistical relationships establish causation. Establishing causation is very difficult. The health breakthrough of establishing that inhaling hot tobacco smoke from cigarettes caused lung cancer, with no known causal mechanism, depended on statistics. However, the work was rigorous, as Brignell details. Many opposed the idea, including Wilhelm Hueper, the director of the US National Cancer Institute, who thought the primary cause was pesticides. Brignell’s books are a refreshing alternative to muddled statistical thinking. See link under Health, Energy, and Climate.
Confusion in Causation: As if to confirm the need for Brignell’s books, statistician Matt Briggs brings our attention to a New York Times op-ed by Naomi Oreskes, the newly minted Harvard professor of the history of science. The op-ed can be charitably called as confused or lacking rigor. Oreskes confuses a weak statistical relationship with causation and proposes weakening the statistical relationship even further. Of the comments reviewed, those by attorney Nathan Schachtman were most direct:
Oreskes wants her readers to believe that those who are resisting her conclusions about climate change are hiding behind an unreasonably high burden of proof, which follows from the conventional standard of significance in significance probability. In presenting her argument, Oreskes consistently misrepresents the meaning of statistical significance and confidence intervals to be about the overall burden of proof for a scientific claim:
Oreskes offers no proof for the unsubstantiated accusations in her book Merchants of Doubt (with Erik Conway), thus any normal standards of proof may be too onerous for her.
Schachtman concludes: I will leave substance of the climate change issue to others, but Oreskes’ methodological misidentification of the 95% coefficient of confidence with burden of proof is wrong. Regardless of motive, the error obscures the real debate, which is about data quality. More disturbing is that Oreskes’ error confuses significance and posterior probabilities, and distorts the meaning of burden of proof. To be sure, the article by Oreskes is labeled opinion, and Oreskes is entitled to her opinions about climate change and whatever. To the extent that her opinions, however, are based upon obvious factual errors about statistical methodology, they are entitled to no weight at all.
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Lowering Standards.
Return of Medieval Scholasticism: German physicist Horst-Joachim Lüdecke offers penetrating analysis of current climate science, as exemplified by the IPCC and its adherents, with its dependence on global climate models. He equates the IPCC science with medieval Western European Scholasticism, which was dominant before Galileo, and Galileo’s emphasis on measurement and testing hypotheses with experiments and observations. If the hypotheses fail, they are to be modified or discarded. Richard Feynman clearly explained this approach in lectures, available on the internet. All too often those engaged in hypothesis testing are accused of “cherry-picking”, indicating the accuser confuses hypothesis testing with hypothesis advocacy. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Windfall Benefits Tax? In the 1970s the price of oil increased dramatically, resulting in high profits for oil producing firms, as US price controls were relaxed. Many politicians and government promoters insisted on taxing these increased profits, calling them windfalls. A new tax called the Windfall Profits Tax was implemented.
In recent months there has been a dramatic drop in the price of oil, resulting in benefits to consumers in the form of lower costs. Now, some politicians and government promoters are claiming this is a perfect time for a new tax on oil, calling it a carbon tax. Due to the timing, it also could be called a Windfall Benefits Tax. See links under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes.
War on Affordable Fossil Fuels: Many commentators have called the Administration’s regulations of coal-fired power plants and the coal industry as a war on coal. Now, the Administration is proposing to expand regulations on methane and the transportation of crude oil, which would increase costs to the consumer. Could the Administration’s actions be called a war on affordable fossil fuels? See Article # 4.
Climategate: Steve McIntyre has doggedly pursued the issues surrounding Mr. Mann and his hockey-stick, featured in the IPCC Third Assessment Reports (2001). McIntyre has also followed the litigation that Mr. Mann initiated. On his web site, McIntyre brings up the important issue of what constitutes data falsification.
That the last 50 years or so of the Briffa reconstruction in the IPCC 2001 diagram under Mann’s lead authorship were deleted is a matter of fact: Gavin Schmidt and Richard Muller would agree on that. To date, no investigation (to my knowledge and I’ve examined all their reports closely) has considered whether this omission of data was falsification under academic codes of conduct. Deciding whether this truncation was data manipulation, data torture, falsification or academic misconduct seems to me a matter of judgement, rather than an objectively verifiable fact (as [attorney] Williams argued.)
In presenting his investigation of another paper, McIntyre observes that when dealing with high latitude proxy data (usually from the Northern Hemisphere) to estimate temperatures, one should consider the data to be summer data rather than annual data, at least on a millennial scale. Nearly all biological processes that create the proxy data are responsive to summer heat, rather than annual temperatures. In dealing with data from a lake in Iceland, McIntyre observes that the Little Ice Age is more pronounced than the Medieval Warm Period and may be part of a general cooling trend for the last 8000 years. See links under Climategate Continued and Oh’ Mann.
Number of the Week: 79,066. The number of pages of US regulations and legal notices, proposed or implemented, issued by Federal agencies in 2014 as recorded in the Federal Register. “These include Presidential proclamations and Executive Orders, Federal agency documents having general applicability and legal effect, documents required to be published by act of Congress, and other Federal agency documents of public interest.” From the Federal Register, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2014-12-31/pdf/FR-2014-12-31.pdf
1. EPA to Issue Power-Plant Emissions Rules This Summer
Final Regulations on Carbon Emissions to Make Up Cornerstone of Obama Climate-Change Agenda
By Amy Harder, WSJ, Jan 7, 2015
SUMMARY: The EPA will delay its proposed power plant regulations on CO2 emissions until it composes new sets of rules targeting all coal-fired power plants. These will be issued simultaneously and cover new, modified, and existing power plants. Model regulations will be adopted for states that do not impose their own regulations. Of course, no new power plants will be built until the rules are adopted.
2. EPA Has Followed the Law on the Clean Power Plan
Our proposal sets up a national framework that gives states the power to chart their own customized path to meet the carbon-dioxide-emissions targets proposed for each state.
By Avi Garbow, Letters, WSJ, Jan. 4, 2015
SUMMARY: The General Counsel for the EPA objected to Laurence Tribe stating the EPA power plant regulations are unconstitutional. The EPA lawyer claimed the EPA has carefully followed the laws and the dictates of sound science.
SEPP submitted the following comment: RE: “dictates of sound science” If an empirical science cannot be used to formulate reliable predictions, it is not a sound science. The climate models the EPA used to project future harm from global warming, supposedly caused by increasing CO2, failed to predict the current plateau in temperatures, which has being continuing for over ten years.
3. Deep Debt Keeps Oil Firms Pumping
Producers Have Increased Their Borrowings by 55% Since 2010
By Irin Ailworth, Russell Gold and Timothy Puko, WSJ, Jan 6, 2015
SUMMARY: A small Texas drilling company filed for bankruptcy protection for a debt less than $50 million. The article discusses publicly traded corporations in oil and gas production with at least $100 million in revenues and a high Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization ratio. None of the companies are well known and those with a ratio above 5 are Quicksilver Resources, Antero Resources, and Warren Resources.
4/ Meth Heads in the White House
Obama plans to regulate methane even as emissions plummet.
Editorial, WSJ, Jan 4, 2015
SUMMARY: The editorial discusses a proposed new set of regulations on the oil and natural gas industries being developed by the administration. These regulations will target methane. According to the article: “Overall emissions fell 4.7% between 1990 and 2008 and 6.3% between 2008 and 2012, the most recent year an estimate is available in the EPA’s greenhouse gas inventory. Natural gas is the source of less than a third of the total, the next largest being “enteric fermentation,” or livestock flatulence. Those, er, emissions rose 2.3% over 1990-2012.”
From 2008-2012 the “U.S. became the world’s natural-gas leader, with production increasing by nearly fourfold since 2008. The U.S. added 600,000 miles of gas pipeline, a 30% increase, utilities substituted gas for coal on a massive scale and the economy grew. Methane emissions nonetheless fell.”
The article states: “The real reason methane has become an obsession of the green lobby is that it sometimes leaks when extracting or transporting oil and especially natural gas. Thus methane can be a pretext for interfering with and raising the costs of drilling.”
5. ‘Scoring’ Legislation for Growth
New laws have economic consequences. Ignoring them doesn’t make a bill ‘neutral.’
By Edward Lazear, WSJ, Jan 6, 2015
SUMMARY: The former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers explains that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the fiscal consequences of proposed legislation and in most instances it assumes no effect on economic growth, positive or negative. A new rule adopted by the House of Representatives requires the CBO consider the impact of proposed legislation on growth. The Administration opposes this.
The article states principles that should be stipulated
1) Consistency in model use, not case-to-case
2) Models and approaches made public
3) Best available science [to which SEPP would add the word empirical. Though it may appear redundant, the term science is used so vaguely that empirical seems to be necessary.]
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Two new papers suggest solar activity is a ‘climate pacemaker’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 9, 2015
Mann and the Legacy of “Bogus”
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jan 5, 2015
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jan 8, 2015
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Blocking the door to the marketplace of ideas
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 8, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy
UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2014: +0.32 deg. C
2014 was Third Warmest Year Since 1979, but Just Barely
By Roy Spencer with John Christy, and Phil Gentry, Spencer’s Blog, Jan 6, 2015
UAH Ranks 2014 Third Warmest Year – Just
By Staff Writers, Reporting Climate Science, Jan 6, 2015
German Physicist Sees Dangerous Return To “Medieval Scholasticism” – Climate Models Have Failed Conclusively
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 6, 2015
‘Fears of man-made global warming exaggerated’
By Anahita Mukherji, The Economic Times, India, Jan 7, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Gruber Thinking in Climate Science: Disconnect Between Academia And The Real World.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Jan 8, 2015
The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels (book review)
By Jay Lehr and Sterling Burnett, Master Resource, January 8, 2015
Climate Duckspeakers And Relearning The Lessons Of Orwell’s 1984
By Tom Harris, Daily Caller, Jan 8, 2015
Defending the Orthodoxy
Playing Dumb on Climate Change,
By Naomi Oreskes, NYT, Jan 3, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: The Harvard professor of the history of science mentions high intellectual hurdles. The IPCC has failed to achieve them, so has her simplistic analysis.]
Climate Mission Impossible: Scientists Say Fossil Fuels Must Go Untapped
New study says vast amounts of coal, oil, and gas must be left untouched to limit global warming.
By Christina Nunez, National Geographic, Jan 7, 2015 [H/t Climate Depot]
Link to Study: Study identifies which fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground to avoid dangerous climate change
By Staff Writers, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, Jan 7, 2015
“The study funded by the UK Energy Research Centre and published in Nature today, also identifies the geographic location of existing reserves that should remain unused and so sets out the regions that stand to lose most from achieving the 2°C goal.”
2014 may set a new temperature record. So can we please stop claiming global warming has “stopped”?
By Chris Mooney, Washington Post, Jan 6, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Does one year a trend make?]]
‘The evidence is overwhelming’ David Attenborough hits out at climate change deniers
Editorial, Express, UK, Jan 1, 2015
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Alarmists Warm It Up
They overcook the evidence of 2014 to support their shaky predictions of global warming.
By Rupert Darwall, National Review Online, Jan 8, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
‘97% Of Climate Scientists Agree’ Is 100% Wrong
By Alex Epstein, Forbes, Jan 6, 2015 [H/t Climate Depot]
[SEPP Comment: Three papers proclaimed 97%, the last was by Cook et al. Each paper is poor.]
Climate change’s instructive past
By George Will, Washington Post, Jan 7, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Warming Alarmists Could Use Lesson On History Of Climate
By George Will, IBD, Jan 7, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Global Warming: False Alarm Over Polar Bears Exposed — Again
By William Jasper, New American, Jan 5, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
If the BOM was incompetent, the ABC would be the last to find out
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 10, 2015
Is Global Warming a Hoax?
By Ed Hiserodt and Rebecca Terrell, New American, Jan 5, 2015 [H/t DeWitt Edwards]
[SEPP Comment: Mentions SEPP.]
Pessimistic projections of the world’s climate Alarmists will likely never come to pass.
By Goeff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, Jan 7, 2015
Social Benefits of Carbon
Guess What, Mom? Trees Like CO2
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jan 7, 2015
Link to paper: Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle
By Schimel, Stephens, and Fisher, PNAS, Dec 29, 2014
“Feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric CO2 concentrations contribute the second-largest uncertainty to projections of future climate.”
[SEPP Comment: Is the largest uncertainty to projections of future climate the lack of knowledge of natural causes of change?]
Record CO2 Coincides With Record-Breaking Crop Yields, ‘Greening of Globe’
By Barbara Hollingsworth, CNS News, Jan 6, 2015 [H/t Reed Gibby]
The Influence of C02 on Plant Antioxidants
By Craig Idso, CO2 Science & SPPI, Jan 8, 2015
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Die Zeit Interview With Hans von Storch: “No Intensification In Storm Activity”…All “Within Range Of Natural Variability”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 10, 2015
Climatologists Balk as Brazil Picks Skeptic for Key Post
By Simon Romero, NYT, Jan 6, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Oil Plunge Seen Eroding Emissions Ambition: Carbon & Climate
By Mathew Carr, Bloomberg, Jan 8, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Seeking a Common Ground
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 8, 2015
On Appeals to Authority, “Climategate” and the Wizard of Oz: a Personal Journey from “Trust Me” to “Show Me”
By A Chemist in Langley, Jan 9, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Sceptics are from Mars and warmists are from Venus
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 5, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A false dichotomy, ignores the assertions by some skeptics that the warming effect of additional atmospheric CO2 is not significant.]
What should climate scientists advocate for?
By Gavin Schmidt, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan/Feb 2015 [H/t Bishop Hill]
‘Perhaps the clearest question that climate scientists can ask themselves comes from the Nobel Prize–winning chemist F. Sherwood Rowland (quoted in Brodeur, 1986: 83) talking about the discovery of the chemistry that causes ozone depletion: “After all, what’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions, if in the end all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?”’
[SEPP Comment: What does one do when predictions are wrong? Publically withdraw the predictions and propose modifications to the hypothesis?]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Sixty-two Years of Shrub Expansion onto Colorado Alpine Tundra
Formica, A., Farrer, E.C., Ashton, I.W. and Suding, K.N. 2014. Shrub expansion over the past 62 years in Rocky Mountain alpine tundra: possible causes and consequences. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 46: 616-631. Jan 7, 2015
“The four researchers determined that shrub cover consisting predominantly of two species of willow (Salix planifolia and Salix glauca) increased by an amazing 441% over the 62-year time-span of their database…”
Modelling Sea Surface Temperatures at the Sub-Regional Scale
Kwiatkowski, L., Halloran, P.R., Mumby, P.J. and Stephenson, D.B. 2014. What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature? Climate Dynamics 43: 1483-1496. Jan 7, 2015
“…the four researchers found that “CMIP5 models have typically very poor skill and often perform worse than chance at capturing spatial patterns of SST warming anomalies between 1960-1980 and 1985-2005 in the coral regions analyzed [italics added for emphasis].”
Reef Calcifiers Resisting Ocean Acidification
Comeau, S., Carpenter, R.C., Njiri, Y., Putnam, H.M., Sakai, K. and Edmunds, P.J. 2014a. Pacific-wide contrast highlights resistance of reef calcifiers to ocean acidification. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 281: 10.1098/rspb.2014.1339. Jan 5, 2015
“And, therefore, evidence continues to accumulate in support of the view that the vast bulk of the pessimistic projections of the world’s climate alarmists relative to future ocean acidification effects on calcifying organisms will likely never come to pass.”
Symbiodinium Diversity: A Godsend for Earth’s Corals
Sweet, M.J. 2014. Symbiodinium diversity within Acropora muricata and the surrounding environment. Marine Ecology35: 343-353. Jan 5, 2015
…Michael Sweet writes that “reef corals can adapt or acclimatize to changing environmental conditions in three principal ways: (i) with direct changes in gene expression and the physiological traits of the coral and/or its symbiotic algae (Brown et al., 2000, 2002), (ii) adaptation by replacement of susceptible symbiotic algae with genetically distinct, more resistant symbionts acquired from the environment (Baker et al., 2004; Rowan, 2004; LaJeunesse et al., 2010), or (iii) ‘symbiont shuffling’ whereby shifts in the existing populations occur such that the dominant, more susceptible symbionts are replaced by rarer, more resistant types (Baker et al., 2004; Berkelmans and van Oppen, 2006).”
Models v. Observations
Polar bear gene flow blamed on melting ice is another model result that doesn’t make sense
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 9, 2015
On the futility of climate models: ‘simplistic nonsense’
By Leo Smith, WUWT, Jan 6, 2015
Why Do Different Satellite Datasets Produce Different Global Temperature Trends?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 6, 2015
2014 was the hottest year on record
Global temperatures hit new high with no boost from El Niño.
By Boer Deng, Nature, Jan 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: There is an El Niño, but not the strong one global warming promoters predicted.]
Anthropogenic Warming in the CET Record?
By Neil Catto, WUWT, Jan 8, 2015
Analysis Shows Claim That “CO2 Concentration Is Highest In 600,000 Years” Is Highly Dubious At Best
By P Gosselin, Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Jan 3, 2015
A Major Advance for Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 5, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Much needed, but can the National Weather Service keep climate modelers at bay?]
Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 5, 2015
Canada, United States in deep Arctic freeze
By Michel COMTE, Ottawa (AFP), Jan 8, 2015
Cold Wave to Fuel N. Europe Storms, Faster-than-Sound Jet Travel
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 5, 2015
Reality check on extreme storms and flooding in the Midwest
By Sierra Rayne, American Thinker, Jan 3, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
What is Truss being told?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: To the UK Environmental Secretary the ordinary is extreme?]
The Medieval Warm Period Lives!
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jan 7, 2015
Link to paper: A composite sea surface temperature record of the northern South China Sea for the past 2500 years: A unique look into seasonality and seasonal climate changes during warm and cold periods
By Yan, Soon, and Wang, Earth-Science Reviews, Jan-Feb 2015
Cool deep-water protects coral reefs against heat stress
By Staff Writers, Kiel, Germany (SPX), Jan 08, 2015
Hidden Battles on the Reefs
How will corals fare in a changing ocean?
By Tom DeCarlo, Oceanus, Jan 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Why assume that in the history of coral reefs, seas have not changed before?]
Oceans not acidifying – “scientists” hid 80 years of pH data
By James Doogue and Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 5, 2015
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Bad news on sea levels calls for forward-thinking solutions
Editorial, Washington Post, Jan 3, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to papers: West Antarctic Melt Rate Has Tripled: NASA-UC Irvine
Press release by Carol Rasmussen, NASA, Dec 1, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Re-cycling old news.]
Epic survey finds regional patterns of soot and dirt on North American snow
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 8, 2015
EXCLUSIVE: Ice in the Arctic and Antarctic is ‘not melting’, says global warming expert
By Levi Winchester, UK Express, Dec 25, 2014
Why is Greenland covered in ice?
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX), Jan 06, 2015
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 5, 2015
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
A Drought of Common Sense
By Ron Pike, Quadrant, Jan 5, 2015
Happy New Year for GM crops?
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Jan 9, 2015
Naomi Oreskes Plays Dumb On Statistics And Climate Change
By William Briggs, His blog, Jan 6, 2015 [H/t Climate Depot]
Significance Levels are Made a Whipping Boy on Climate Change Evidence: Is .05 Too Strict? (Schachtman on Oreskes)
By D.G. Mayo, Error Statistics, Jan 4, 2015
Playing Dumb on Statistical Significance
By Nathan Schachtman, His Blog, Jan 4, 2015
Closed minds at the British Library
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The illustrious panel made false claims regarding political opposition and asserted extreme weather records are being broken every year.]
In Our Time last time
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 5, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Some change over 15 years.]
More Nonsense From The BBC’s Harrabin
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: More flowers are found in bloom in December, not because temperatures are higher, as BBC implies, but because more people are looking for them.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
German Analysis: Spreading Alarmism Over Mere Hundredths Of A Degree Is “Complete Hyperbolism”
Global Temperature Record 2014?
By Michael Krueger, Translated, edited by P Gosselin, Jan 5, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Lewandowsky and the paleoparticipant
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Another phony survey supposedly exposing global warming skeptics, this one with a 32,757 year-old human?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Peter Miesler Helps Expose USHCN Homogenization Insanity and Antarctic Illusions.
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 7, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Baked Alaska? Propaganda film suggests children in Alaska have no snow
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 4, 2015
Questioning European Green
Coal Still Dominates The Energiewende
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Comparing the high amount of installed solar and wind with actual production as compared with other forms of electricity generation should be obvious except for those wearing blinders.]
German Citizens Have Had Enough…”Conflict Over Wind Turbines Escalating” …Against “Horror Landscapes”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 9, 2015
The UK Offshore Wind Industry
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2015
“Ed Davey [Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change] likes to talk about how much ‘investment’ his policies have attracted. The reality is that we will be paying for this investment many times over. To make matters worse, this ‘investment’ only serves to replace perfectly good generating capacity.
“This is economics of the madhouse for which the country will be paying dearly for many years to come.”
The Political Games Continue
The Seven Unexpected Republicans to Watch If You Care About Climate ChangeThese GOP lawmakers and candidates could shape their party’s future on global warming.
By Ben Geman, National Journal, Jan 5, 2015 [H/t Tom Sheahen]
[SEPP Comment: Appropriate propaganda photo of a smoke stack belching steam that appears dark.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
You Ought to Have A Look: Carbon Tax, Carbon Tax, Carbon Tax
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Jan 9, 2015
Oil’s swoon creates the opening for a carbon tax
By Lawrence Summers, Washington Post, Jan 4, 2015
The Case For A Carbon Tax Is Overwhelming
By Lawrence Summers, IBD, Jan 5, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
It’s Never a Good Time for a Carbon Tax
By Nicolas Loris, Daily Signal, Jan 6, 2015
Oil’s ‘Swoon’ Is Not an Argument for Carbon Taxes
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Jan 6, 2015
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Delays Final Carbon Rules for New Power Plants
By Gail Reitenbach, Power Mag, Jan 7, 2015
EPA wants cleaner wood-burning fires, new rules expected by February
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI), Jan 2, 2015
States to challenge Obama’s climate rules
By Zack Coleman, Washington Examiner, Jan 5, 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
Climate change scaremongering won’t trouble oil junkies
Big oil is becoming a dirty word but the world still depends on fossil fuels to power growth and provide economic prosperity
By Andrew Critchlow,, Telegraph, UK, Jan 8, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Energy Crisis As Early As 2016
By Dan Steffens for Oilprice.com, Washington DC (SPX), Jan 07, 2015
How Many Of World’s Poor Will Climate Alarmists Let Die?
By H. Sterling Burnett, IBD, Jan 5, 2015
Energy Issues — US
NERC Report: Wind and Solar Hurt Grid Reliability
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 9, 2015
North American rig activity slowing
By Daniel J. Graeber, Houston (UPI), Jan 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: By 3% from previous week.]
Only LEDs Can Significantly Cut Electricity Usage
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Government mandates adding to inefficiencies in lighting?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
GOP pressures Obama on Keystone
By Elise Viebeck, The Hill, Jan 10, 2015
Obama kicks oil and gas industry while it is down
By Marita Noon, Net Right Daily, Jan 7, 2015
Keystone foes bet on congressional firewall
By Elana Schor, Politico, Jan 8, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Obama’s Keystone veto threat is proof that climate activism works, no matter what the ‘insiders’ say
By Bill McKibben, Guardian, UK, Jan 6, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
We Sent Men to the Moon In Less Time Than Obama’s Dithered Over Keystone
By John Merline, IBD, Jan 7, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Breaking even despite the lower oil prices
By Staff Writers, Rystad Energy, Jan 6, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Chevron finds oil in Gulf of Mexico
By Daniel J. Graeber, San Ramon, Calif. (UPI), Jan 6, 2015
Interior Secretary Jewell calls out fracking bans as antithetical to U.S. interests
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jan 5, 2015
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Canada Safe Despite Fukushima Radiation in British Columbia Waters
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (Sputnik), Jan 06, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Surely the radiation will not reach Toronto! (over 2,000 miles).]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
India’s Modi raises solar investment target to $100 bln by 2022
By Krishna N. Das and Swetha Gopinath, Reuters, Jan 2, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
California Governor Wants to Raise State’s 2030 RPS Target to 50%
By Thomas Overton, Power, Jan 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: RPS is the renewable portfolio standard. Just add more of what is failing.]
Ground broken for state’s high-speed rail project
By Michael Cabanatuan, SF Gate, Jan 7, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
California Just Started Another Insane Government Project [Hi-speed rail]
By Katrina Trinko, Daily Signal, Jan 6, 2015
Health, Energy, and Climate
Rise in autism diagnoses may be largely due to changes in diagnostic criteria
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jan 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: So much for claims vaccination causes autism.]
The inevitability of cancer
Tumours are the wages of age, not the wages of sin
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Jan 7, 2015
“In the 1950s Wilhelm Hueper — a director of the US National Cancer Institute and mentor to Rachel Carson, the environmentalist author of Silent Spring — was so concerned that pesticides were causing cancer that he thought the theory that lung cancer was caused by smoking was a plot by the chemical industry to divert attention from its own culpability: ‘Cigarette smoking is not a major factor in the causation of lung cancer,’ he insisted.”
More Mann Grafting
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jan 8, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Mr. Mann and his attorneys dragging the National Science Foundation into the mire.]
WWF – Masters of Spin
By Euan Mearns, His Blog, Jan 5, 2015 [H/t Bishop Hill]
[SEPP Comment: Damn the public, full WWF speed ahead!]
Other Scientific News
Curious: Electromagnetic waves linked to particle fallout in Earth’s atmosphere, new study finds
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 5, 2015
Other News that May Be of Interest
2014: Year of Action, Year of Regulation
By Sam Batkins, American Action Forum, Jan 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Estimating the costs of 79,066 pages of regulations in 2014]
Storms are Normal: The Nuclear Weapons Equivalency
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Dec 31, 2014
[SEPP Comment: According to total energy absorbed by the earth every 20 seconds is about the energy released by all nuclear testing over 50 years – so much for comparisons of CO2 emissions with so many bombs.]
US goes for ‘wheels on steel’ as high-speed rail option
By David Milward and Tom Shiel, Telegraph, UK, Jan 5, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
U.K. Power Grid is Under Attack From Hackers Every Minute, Says Parliament
By Jillian Ward, Bloomberg, Jan 9, 2015 [H/t Bishop Hill]
[SEPP Comment: Does the Pentagon realize this? Does its program for solar and wind threaten national security?]
Penguins Marching An Extra 1000 km
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Jan 10, 2015