Guest Post by Werner Brozek Edited by Just The Facts:
In the above graphic, the green line is RSS from 1990 with a mean of 12 which means that you continually see the average of 12 values. It has been offset so that the average red height equals the average green height. The red line is GISS with a mean of 12. If HADCRUT4.3 could be shown, it would be similar to GISS. And if UAH, version 5.5 were shown, it would be similar to RSS.
Note the spikes in both the red and green lines in 1998 and 2010. Then note where the red (GISS) line is at the end relative to the 1998 and 2010 spikes. Since it is almost in the same place, there is a very real chance that GISS will set a record, but if not, it will certainly be in the top three in a statistical tie. Something very similar could be said for HADCRUT4.3 except I expect it to end up first or second.
Now note the green (RSS) line at the end. It is way lower than the green spikes in 1998 and 2010. At the moment, RSS is in seventh place and there is no realistic chance that it will end up anywhere else except for sixth or seventh or eighth place. The same could be said for UAH, version 5.5. However I would also like to add the following. Dr. Spencer provided very interesting additional information with his November update.
It shows that the value on November 30 is about 0.18 C below the average of 0.33 for November. I have no idea what has happened since and I realize this applies to version 5.6 only, however due to the way the numbers can vary month to month, I can not rule out that UAH version 5.5 may not end up as low as ninth or tenth.
I realize that the year is not over yet, however once you have the averages for 11 months, then there are real restrictions on how much December can still change things. For every 0.12 C that the December anomaly is above or below the 11 month average, the yearly average will only go up or down by 0.01 C. Furthermore, with the ENSO meter showing what it does, there is unlikely to be a huge spike in December in either direction.
The UAH, version 5.5 average after 11 months is 0.201 and the record is 1998 at 0.419. If we assume the December anomaly will not be more than 0.12 C above or below the present average, then UAH, version 5.5 should come in from sixth to eighth. However, as I mentioned above, due to the low start in December, it may even be ninth or tenth. April 1998 had an anomaly of 0.662. No monthly anomaly came close in 2014 with the largest being 0.279 in June.
The UAH, version 5.6 average after 11 months is 0.267 and the record is 1998 at 0.419. If we assume the December anomaly will not be more than 0.12 C above or below the present average, then UAH, version 5.6 should come in third or fourth. April 1998 had an anomaly of 0.663. No monthly anomaly came close in 2014 with the largest being 0.365 in October.
The RSS average after 11 months is 0.253 and the record is 1998 at 0.550. If we assume the December anomaly will not be more than 0.12 C above or below the present average, then RSS should come in from sixth to eighth. April 1998 had an anomaly of 0.857. No monthly anomaly came close in 2014 with the largest being 0.351 in July.
The GISS average after 11 months is 0.67 and the record is 2010 at 0.66. If we assume the December anomaly will not be more than 0.12 C above or below the present average, then GISS should come in first or second. However, when one considers how old GISS numbers jump around every month, I will not rule out third. When considering error bars, it would probably be more accurate to say that 2014 will be in a three way tie for first place. GISS is unlikely to set an all time monthly record in 2014. January 2007 had an anomaly of 0.92. The highest GISS anomaly, at least so far in 2014, is 0.81 in September.
The HaADCRUT4.3 average after 10 months is 0.565 and the record is 2010 at 0.555. November is not out yet, however I do not expect to see the average being below 0.555 when it does come out. I expect HADCRUT4.3 to be either first, second or third by the end of the year. Hadcrut4.3 will likely not set an all time monthly record in 2014. January 2007 had an anomaly of 0.835. The highest HADCRUT4.3 anomaly, at least so far in 2014, is 0.669 in August.
The HADSST3 average after 11 months is 0.482 and the old record is in 1998 at 0.416. HADSST3 will definitely set a new record in 2014. The previous monthly record was July 1998 at 0.526. The five months from June to October all beat this mark. The highest was 0.644 in August.
In the sections below, as in previous posts, we will present you with the latest facts. The information will be presented in three sections and an appendix. The first section will show for how long there has been no warming on some data sets. At the moment, only the satellite data have flat periods of longer than a year. The second section will show for how long there has been no statistically significant warming on several data sets. The third section will show how 2014 to date compares with 2013 and the warmest years and months on record so far. The appendix will illustrate sections 1 and 2 in a different way. Graphs and a table will be used to illustrate the data.
This analysis uses the latest month for which data is available on WoodForTrees.com (WFT). All of the data on WFT is also available at the specific sources as outlined below. We start with the present date and go to the furthest month in the past where the slope is a least slightly negative. So if the slope from September is 4 x 10^-4 but it is – 4 x 10^-4 from October, we give the time from October so no one can accuse us of being less than honest if we say the slope is flat from a certain month.
1. For GISS, the slope is not flat for any period that is worth mentioning.
2. For Hadcrut4, the slope is not flat for any period that is worth mentioning. Note that WFT has not updated Hadcrut4 since July and it is only Hadcrut4.2 that is shown.
3. For Hadsst3, the slope is not flat for any period that is worth mentioning.
4. For UAH, the slope is flat since June 2008 or 6 years, 6 months. (goes to November using version 5.5)
5. For RSS, the slope is flat since October 1996 or 18 years, 2 months (goes to November).
The following graph shows just the lines to illustrate the above. Think of it as a sideways bar graph where the lengths of the lines indicate the relative times where the slope is 0. In addition, the upward sloping blue line at the top indicates that CO2 has steadily increased over this period.
When two things are plotted as I have done, the left only shows a temperature anomaly.
The actual numbers are meaningless since the two slopes are essentially zero. No numbers are given for CO2. Some have asked that the log of the concentration of CO2 be plotted. However WFT does not give this option. The upward sloping CO2 line only shows that while CO2 has been going up over the last 18 years, the temperatures have been flat for varying periods on the two sets.
For this analysis, data was retrieved from Nick Stokes’ Trendviewer available on his website <a href=”http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/temperature-trend-viewer.html”. This analysis indicates for how long there has not been statistically significant warming according to Nick’s criteria. Data go to their latest update for each set. In every case, note that the lower error bar is negative so a slope of 0 cannot be ruled out from the month indicated.
On several different data sets, there has been no statistically significant warming for between 14 and 22 years according to Nick’s criteria. Cl stands for the confidence limits at the 95% level.
Dr. Ross McKitrick has also commented on these parts and has slightly different numbers for the three data sets that he analyzed. I will also give his times.
The details for several sets are below.
For UAH: Since June 1996: CI from -0.016 to 2.245
(Dr. McKitrick says the warming is not significant for 16 years on UAH.)
For RSS: Since December 1992: CI from -0.018 to 1.761
(Dr. McKitrick says the warming is not significant for 26 years on RSS.)
For Hadcrut4.3: Since May 1997: CI from -0.015 to 1.146
(Dr. McKitrick said the warming was not significant for 19 years on Hadcrut4.2 going to April. Hadcrut4.3 would be slightly shorter however I do not know what difference it would make to the nearest year.)
For Hadsst3: Since December 1994: CI from -0.007 to 1.723
For GISS: Since February 2000: CI from -0.043 to 1.336
Note that all of the above times, regardless of the source, with the exception of GISS are larger than 15 years which NOAA deemed necessary to “create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate”.
This section shows data about 2014 and other information in the form of a table. The table shows the five data sources along the top and other places so they should be visible at all times. The sources are UAH, RSS, Hadcrut4, Hadsst3, and GISS.
Down the column, are the following:
1. 13ra: This is the final ranking for 2013 on each data set.
2. 13a: Here I give the average anomaly for 2013.
3. year: This indicates the warmest year on record so far for that particular data set. Note that two of the data sets have 2010 as the warmest year and three have 1998 as the warmest year.
4. ano: This is the average of the monthly anomalies of the warmest year just above.
5. mon: This is the month where that particular data set showed the highest anomaly. The months are identified by the first three letters of the month and the last two numbers of the year. Note that this does not yet include records set so far in 2014 such as Hadsst3 in June, etc.
6. ano: This is the anomaly of the month just above.
7. y/m: This is the longest period of time where the slope is not positive given in years/months. So 16/2 means that for 16 years and 2 months the slope is essentially 0. Periods of under a year are not counted and are shown as “0”.
8. sig: This the first month for which warming is not statistically significant according to Nick’s criteria. The first three letters of the month are followed by the last two numbers of the year.
9. sy/m: This is the years and months for row 8. Depending on when the update was last done, the months may be off by one month.
10. McK: These are Dr. Ross McKitrick’s number of years for three of the data sets.
11. Jan: This is the January 2014 anomaly for that particular data set.
12. Feb: This is the February 2014 anomaly for that particular data set, etc.
22. ave: This is the average anomaly of all months to date taken by adding all numbers and dividing by the number of months.
23. rnk: This is the rank that each particular data set would have if the anomaly above were to remain that way for the rest of the year. It may not, but think of it as an update 55 minutes into a game. Due to different base periods, the rank is more meaningful than the average anomaly.
If you wish to verify all of the latest anomalies, go to the following:
For UAH, version 5.5 was used since that is what WFT uses.
For Hadsst3, see: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadSST3-gl.dat
For GISS, see:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtTo see all points since January 2014 in the form of a graph, see the WFT graph below. Note that Hadcrut4 is the old version that has been discontinued. WFT does not show Hadcrut4.3 yet.
As you can see, all lines have been offset so they all start at the same place in January 2014. This makes it easy to compare January 2014 with the latest anomaly.
In this part, we are summarizing data for each set separately.
The slope is flat since October, 1996 or 18 years, 2 months. (goes to November)
For RSS: There is no statistically significant warming since December 1992: CI from -0.018 to 1.761.
The RSS average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.253. This would rank it as 7th place if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.218 and it is ranked 10th.
The slope is flat since June 2008 or 6 years, 6 months. (goes to November using version 5.5 according to WFT)
For UAH: There is no statistically significant warming since June 1996: CI from -0.016 to 2.245. (This is using version 5.6 according to Nick’s program.)
The UAH average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.201. This would rank it as 7th place if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.419. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.662. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.197 and it is ranked 7th.
The slope is not flat for any period that is worth mentioning.
For HADCRUT4: There is no statistically significant warming since May 1997: CI from -0.015 to 1.146.
The HADCRUT4 average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.565, but this is after only ten months. This would rank it as 1st place if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.555. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.835. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.492 and it is ranked 9th.
For HADSST3, the slope is not flat for any period that is worth mentioning. For HHADSST3: There is no statistically significant warming since December 1994: CI from -0.007 to 1.723.
The HADSST3 average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.482. A new record is guaranteed. 1998 was the warmest at 0.416 prior to 2014. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in July of 1998 when it reached 0.526. This is also prior to 2014. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.376 and it is ranked 6th.
The slope is not flat for any period that is worth mentioning.
For GISS: There is no statistically significant warming since February 2000: CI from -0.043 to 1.336.
The GISS average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.67. This would rank it as first place if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest previously at 0.66. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.92. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.59 and it is ranked 6th.
Here are my projections for final rankings in 2014 for six data sets.
UAH version 5.5: from sixth to tenth inclusive
UAH version 5.6: third or fourth
RSS: from sixth to eighth inclusive
GISS: First, second or third
HADCRUT4.3: First, second or third