As we previously mentioned on WUWT, the Sunspot 2192 which is as large as Jupiter had the potential of hurling large solar flares toward Earth. According to NASA’s spaceweather.com “Giant sunspot AR2192 has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 85% chance of M-class flares and a 45% chance of X-flares on Oct. 24th. If an explosion does occur, it will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth.”
It has just released what appears to be an x-class flare, possibly an X3.
From the WUWT Solar Reference Page, the X-Ray plot:
![Xray[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/xray11.gif)
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I just looked outside and didn’t see anything.
So,,, can anyone tell us the level of the biggest X class events ?
X 41 rings a bell at the top end, no?
Anyone?
Yes!
The thing is.. asking a question and answering it yourself doesn’t seem to be the strongest trait you have going for you!
Appreciate the heads up. Another reason why I frequent this website. Something taken for granted stops…good to know why.
Now expecting WUWT to get me at least 24hr head start to do ALL my doomsday prepping for the apocalyptic solar flare.
With 24hrs notice I will have time to get into my neighbors fully stocked subterranean capsule…and lock the door.
Sparks has made me laugh a couple times in his current threadbombing but…
That was f’ing funny right there Ra Ra Ra!
This is the first sunspot I have seen with the naked eye for a long time. Just a few moments ago, with my trusty Solashield Eye Protection (bought for the 1999 eclipse in England) I viewed it and could see two distinct patches.
However, it’s more satisfying to view it without any filter, just looking at the Sun as an ancient would. But for safety that would require a cloudless sunset with plenty of haze. Here in Gloucestershire I think the sunshine is only temporary, and with the cold front that has gone through there won’t be much haze. So I doubt that I’ll achieve it this evening.
Rich.
Just had our 4th X level event this week.
Oops, not a good day for an Amateur Radio competition!
http://www.cqww.com/
Two more X-flares, an X1.0 and an X2.0:
http://snag.gy/YwGde.jpg
Question– Aren’t solar flares emitted radially? While the sunspots on the solar “disk” appear to be pointed at us, they are about 30 degrees low on the sphere. Doesn’t that mean a clear miss?
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2014/c2/20141024/20141024_1012_c2_1024.jpg
This thread is disappointing, some ignorant comments in it.
I believe that EM coupling from solar emissions into long wires is a known phenomenon. (Yes, there is scare-mongering.)
Fences are not electricity lines, including because they are usually grounded (attached to wood or metal posts), except for electric-shock fences which are insulated at each post – except for the electric potential generating box.
Twisted cable bundles may well be a good idea for high voltage electricity transmission lines, but all the lines I’ve paid any attention to have discrete conductors- that’s why the tower tops are so wide.
I’d be very careful extrapolating from one geometry and voltage to another. A rough parallel is lightning, and minor versions of it such as engine spark plugs – in that case conduction occurs across an air gap, as the air breaks down. That’s not geometry, except for proximity of things that could conduct the energy, such as a tree (often hit by lightning because that’s the shortest path for the charge).
(Don’t you have to consider length of the conductor and its resistance, in predicting effect?)
And don’t overlook the proven risk of solar e-m emissions damaging satelites. (Hopefully recent designs are better.)
Seems like the long way of saying, ..you shouldn’t pee on a spark plug 🙂
Yes Keith, there certainly are some ignorant comments in this thread.
The earth as seen from the sun, is so tiny, subtending about 17.75 arc seconds, that any EM field emitting from the sun, is essentially constant over the entire projected area of the earth. So any Voltage difference across even a 1,000 mile long wire, is going to be miniscule, and that Voltage difference coming from a source resistance of 377 ohms (free space), will result in a very tiny current.
But high Voltage transmission lines, are in fact tightly twisted multiwire cables.
At 60 Hz power grid frequency, the wavelength is 5,000 km, so a thousand mile path is a very good low frequency antenna, and would radiate oodles of 60 Hz energy, if the transmission lines were not twisted.
So next time you look at a high Voltage transmission line, walk along it for a few miles, and you will see the three, or six wires regularly shifting in between towers, maybe one shift (1/3rd twist) per mile, or about one full twist in 3 miles. So that’s about 1,000 twists in a wavelength; more than tight enough to suppress any significant radiation. And the same twisting will result in mutually cancelling Voltages between the several wires, so virtually no current can flow from external EM radiation sources.
If you lived in California, I could tell you exactly where to go on hiway five to observe the HV line twisting going on right along the freeway, and they do a third of a twist about every mile on that line which is probably a 12,000 Volt line.
It is usually controller circuit failure that causes power outages. It certainly isn’t wire melting currents generated in the transmission lines, or lightning would make it impossible to send electric power anywhere.
But don’t worry; ignorance is not a disease. We are all born with it.
So why was the grid in Quebec lost for 9 hours after an eruption in 1989?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm
As for twisting, make sure you are distinguishing between different conductive paths (which are insulated conductors) and the makeup of a typical stranded cable, which looks like “wire rope” – several conductors in close contact, sometimes aluminum (for better conductivity) twisted around a steel core wire (for strength), functionally a single conductor.
Why do typical HV utility lines have separate cables, well-spaced, of quantity that matches the phases? (Sometimes a grounded guard wire as well, that’s the one that Quebec’s utility used above the live, which was pulled down onto live cables by the ice storm before 1989.)
FTR, I didn’t say a CME would melt power wires, I do say it can disrupt the electrical supply system – it took Quebec nine hours to restore power. (Yes, they and others learned how to design and operate better.)
Oh, and you have not explained why CME events have damaged satellites (even geos are a very long way from the sun).
Watch this NASA science video about a coronal mass ejection (CME) propelled in our direction by an X5-class solar flare which hit Earth’s magnetic field in March 2012. Take note of what is said about carbon dioxide and nitric oxide … they act as a natural atmospheric thermostat … they are the two most efficient atmospheric coolants:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/solarstorm-power.html