A recent WUWT story notes the well below normal water temperature of the Great Lakes, some 6 degrees colder than last year. David DuByne writes, and a video follows:
With the Great Lakes at 92% ice coverage during the winter of 2013-2014 and far below average water temperatures this year in the lakes, ice will form earlier and last longer into spring. This will have an effect on shipping and delivery of cargo throughout the region disrupting the Great Lakes Economy.
The current “Ice Breaking Fleet” operating around the Great Lakes may be inadequate this year to keep channels open and assist ships trapped in ice. The evidence is all around to convince that the 2014-2015 winter will be the first “cold climate disruption to our economy” and a wake-up call that our infrastructure is vulnerable to the cooling downtrend that may run from 2014-2035.
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Last year was very windy and cold through the beginning of the year. That is what removed the lakes heat, wind AND cold. We’re a little colder than last year but not much, we need windy and cold again to match last years epic freezing.
Absent good predictive data regression to the mean is always the best bet. No record this year.
Despite the surety of the video, maybe because of it, I’ll take a cautious approach.
It goes something like this:
“If you want to hear God laugh, tell Him your plans.”
For all the folks saying not to predict….
Please note that many industries must, of necessity, predict. Farmers, shipping, road salt buyers and makers, and on it goes. So it is absolutely essential that Weathermen make predictions. Even long range predictions. My co-worker is about to have a cross Atlantic voyage by ship. Weather prediction months in advance was criticl for both the buyer of the ticket, and the operator of the ship. The Captain will consult long range weather predictions in planning a course and stocking fuel. The list is long.
So, IMHO, predict away. Just remember that it pays to be correct…
My Dad talked of driving on foot thick ice on Lake Erie in the 50’s, and before refrigerators, they use to cut it and store it in ice houses till summer.
Maybe we could start a lottery similar to the Nenana Ice Classic in Alaska.
(what will be the % of ice coverage of the 5 Great Lakes), and you would have to include the date of maximum ice coverage to eliminate ties.
My guess is 89% this year – I will bookmark this page to see if I’m right.
From their website:
“The Nenana Ice Classic is a Non-Profit Charitable Gaming Organization.
The proceeds from ticket sales benefit many organizations including but not limited to.
Special Olympics of Alaska
Fairbanks Rescue Mission
Nenana Public Library
Nenana Valley Visitor Center
Nenana Public School
Nenana Senior Center
2 Scholarship programs
And to many other groups”
In regards to the “The Great Lakes Ice Classic” above, NOAA employees and relatives would be ineligible to compete.
Ineligible or unqualified to compete?
Not qualified, because they would be in charge of the statistics.
The lakes should freeze earlier and in turn reduce lake effect snow during winter. I wonder whether this will produce a see-saw, where reduced albedo leads to higher temperatures in the spring.
USCG Response to this post.
@NJSnowFan The prospect of a tough winter is why we’ve developed a close partnership with @CCG_GCC. Together we’ll keep the lanes clear.
5:00pm – 16 Oct 14
So only oceans get warmer and not really, really big lakes? Strange…
Regarding reduced albedo (less snow) from lakes freezing, when the lakes freeze the clouds go away and nighttime temperatures plunge from radiatve cooling to space. Imagine the huge area of clear space over the lakes and how much heat can radiate to space at night. Frozen lakes … 3% of the United States area … essentially become a desert until they break up .. It probably gets colder not warmer when the lake freeze. The existing snow thickness on land shrinks but gets colder and harder to melt. How cold? My Michigan parents neighbor had water well problems last year over Memorial Day weeked and the problem was the ground was still frozen 9 feet down.
Fortunately, snow never wins, the longer daytime of spring aways wins (so far).