Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #152

THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Good Enough? The article by Physicist Steve Koonin “Climate Science Is Not Settled”, which appeared in the Wall Street Journal on September 19, is producing interesting responses. Now, the claim by the defenders of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shifted from over 95% certainty that humans are the primary cause (largely by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions) of global warming since 1950, to claims that the science is good enough for governments to implement policy based on this claim. It is useful to review some of the science that is considered good enough as stated in a letter by Ben Santer and Thomas Stocker. Santer, of the US Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, is a long-time player in the IPCC process. Stocker, of Physics Institute at the University of Bern, was co-chair of Working Group I, the Physical Science, of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5), 2013.

The politically negotiated Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of AR-5 contained the assertion of more than 95% certainty. TWTW knows of no record that Stocker objected to this claim which is highly questionable and not scientifically derived.

In the 35 years since the Charney report to the US National Academy of Sciences, the climate establishment has failed to improve on the estimate of the warming impact from a doubling of CO2, which is called the Climate Sensitivity. It remains 1.5ºC to 4.5ºC.

As demonstrated by the IPCC reports, the climate establishment has failed to adequately separate the human influence from the natural influence. As the Apollo veterans on the Right Climate Stuff Team have stated, if we cannot successfully model the natural influence, we cannot hope to model the human influence.

Recently, there has been a rash of papers published in scientific journals, largely using the same data used by the IPCC, showing that, if anything, the climate sensitivity is on the low end of the 1.5ºC to 4.5ºC range, and may be less than 1ºC.

Further, late 20th century warming has stopped. There is no warming trend in the atmosphere or on the surface, even though CO2 emissions, particularly from China, continue to increase substantially.

These facts draw into question the entire IPCC process, does it incorporate natural cause of climate change as human causes. SEPP thinks so, and that the argument the IPCC used to claim a proper separation in the SPM is a circular argument, which would not pass basic logic.

Further, it has been demonstrated by John Christy, Roy Spencer, and others, that the vast majority of the climate models grossly overestimate warming since 1979. There is no excuse for continuing the use of such models and the results therefrom in reports supposedly summarizing climate science.

By claiming the science is good enough, the participants in the IPCC are embracing low quality work.

Ben Santer is to be remembered as the inventor of the fabled hot spot, a region of the atmosphere of a pronounced warming trend centered over the tropics at about 10 km, 33,000 feet. The hot spot was presented in the 1996 IPCC Second Assessment Report, and has not been retracted, even though Michaels and Knappenberger showed that it is based on a selected portion of the available dataset. No such conclusion can be drawn from the entire dataset.

Santer incorrectly called it the distinct human fingerprint. No one else, except Mr Santer and his group, has been able to find the human fingerprint. It does not appear in the actual data and it should occur regardless of the cause of the warming. Fred Singer asserts that the absence of the hot spot is likely to be from an overestimate of the surface warming trend.

These, and other, inadequacies in the IPCC science can have a dramatic effect on the health and prosperity of the American public. The US EPA has used the non-existent hot spot, false claims that late 20th century warming, was human caused and dangerous, even though it has stopped, and the failing climate models as the lines of evidence that CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health.

The US Federal court system has refused to review this questionable work, thus embracing it as part of the body of law being used to establish policy. Using these claims, the EPA and the Administration have embarked on a program of eliminating electricity generation from even the most efficient and cleanest modern coal-fired power plants, without carbon capture and storage – a technology untested for general application.

Worse, energy expert Donn Dears calculates that CO2 emissions from electric power generation by natural gas, claimed by the EPA and the Administration as the replacement for coal-fired plants, already exceed the stated goal for 2050. The IPCC and its supporters have placed the United States on a bureaucratic path to a cold, hostile future, without affordable, reliable electricity. And now, they are claiming their science is good enough?

See Articles # 1 & #2, links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Energy Issues – US, the September 20 TWTW, and http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/the_un_climate_panels_hot_spot_is_missing_in_action.html

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The Week That Was: 2014-10-04 (October 4, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week: “I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.” Richard Feynman

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Number of the Week: 60/40 blend

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Sea Level Rise: The independent, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) issued a brief on sea level rise for coastal management policy. Although the report is based on sea level rise for New South Wales, AU, the general principles apply world-wide.

World-wide, sea-level rise varies significantly by location and time frame. No effective coastal management plan can rest upon speculative computer projections of idealized future sea levels, such as those used by the IPCC. If the computer modelers have not bothered to validate their models, there is no reason to assume they are valid.

Coastal management must instead rest upon accurate knowledge of local geological, meteorological and oceanographic conditions, including, amongst other things, changes in local relative sea level.

The three general guidelines provided are: 1) abandon global sea-level rise policy, 2) recognize the local or regional nature of coastal hazards, 3) use planning controls that are flexible and adaptive. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC.

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Abandon 2 °C? One of the more questionable stated goals of the global warming alarmists is the goal of preventing global temperatures from rising beyond 2 °C (about 4°F) above the pre-industrial levels, whatever that is. Writing in Nature, astrophysicist Charles Kennel and political scientist David Victor proposed abandoning this bureaucratically contrived goal. They were sharply criticized by members of the climate establishment for their efforts. Yet, the idea may have some merit, depending on what is used to replace it.

Assuming “pre-industrial” means before 1750, we really do not know what global temperatures were then. Thermometers were not in wide-spread use and were not accurate to fractions of a degree. Based on other written records, we can be quite certain there were periods of extreme cold in Northern Europe and in the region in Canada controlled by the Hudson Bay Company. Writing in Reference Frame, Luboš Motl expresses his views about abandoning the 2 °C goal. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.

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AMA: The September 2014 special Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society is back in the news with claims that global warming is causing extreme weather events such as extreme heat. The normally prudent Martin Hoerling seems to be influenced by reports of extreme heat from Australia. However, as brought up in the past few TWTWs, there is strong reason to sharply question the data used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The records starting in 1911, ignoring the extremely hot 1880s and 1890s. Records were mathematically adjusted for station moves, even if there were no moves. Critic Jennifer Marohasy has her typically blunt comments:

Sophie C. Lewis and David J. Karoly have just had a paper published by the American Meteorological Society.

 

Its starts on page 31 of a special edition, ‘Explaining Extreme Events of 2013: From a Climate Perspective’ that is a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 9, September 2014.

 

In this peer-reviewed paper I see that the homogenised ACORN-SAT data is labelled “Observations”.

Without careful and transparent delineation, records that have undergone mathematical manipulation cannot be considered to be the same as direct observations. Add to this, that the conclusions are based, in part, on simulations of climate models that have not been validated. See links under Measurement Issues, Lowering Standards, and http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/09/open-thread-30/

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OOPS: The UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) apparently made a more that slight miscalculation. As Andrew Montford writes:

UK energy policy has one key predicate, namely that fossil fuels are going to get inexorably more expensive. This is, not to put too fine a point on it, the sine qua non of the whole renewables programme. Renewables, we are told, will save consumers money, and only if we dig much deeper might we discover that in fact we are actually being told that renewables are being forecast to be cheaper than fossil fuels in the future

The Telegraph reports that DECC previous forecasts suggested the market price for electricity would rise from about £56 per megawatt-hour in 2015-16 to £64 in 2020-21. Yesterday’s forecast cuts that to £51 in 2015-16, rising to less than £54 in 2020-21.

Ministers currently offer offshore wind farms guaranteed prices of close to £150 per megawatt-hour, with consumers subsidising the difference.

Guaranteeing prices close to £150 per megawatt-hour for electricity with an estimated market value of about £56 per megawatt-hour! Further, the DECC allowed inflation indexation of contracts “because consumers are thought to be better placed to absorb the impact of high inflation than generators.”

No wonder Montford is calling for the abolition of the DECC. See links under Questioning European Green.

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The New Fad – Walruses: A group estimated to be 35,000 walruses hauled onto a beach in Alaska. In a statement the US Geological Survey (USGS) said the walruses “are hauling out on land in a spectacle that has become all too common in six of the last eight years as a consequence of climate-induced warming.” Susan Crockford promptly found reports of similar mass haul-out in the 1970s, when we had global cooling. Whatever is the cause, the official reports now must state global warming?

In the past decade or so, seals have taken over some beaches in southern and central California. For example, Elephant Seals have establish a major rookery on San Simeon, near the Hearst Castle, on the central coast. Will the USGS blame global warming? See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague? and http://www.elephantseal.org/

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Number of the Week: 60/40 Blend. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, promoters of natural gas use in light-to-medium duty work trucks claim they have hit a good blend of 60% natural gas to 40% diesel. The set-up allows the truck to operate on the blend, and if the natural gas is consumed first, on diesel only. Some manufacturers install key components allowing the fuel use shift to occur later, without voiding the warrantee. Numerous small fleets of such trucks would reduce diesel use in the US, save the truckers significantly, without any government subsidies or similar programs. But, without subsidies or mandates, would politicians support such a program? See Article #4.

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ARTICLES:

For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.

1. We Don’t Need Perfect Knowledge to Act on the Climate

Steven E. Koonin’s essay “Climate Science Is Not Settled” (Review, Sept. 20) isn’t an accurate reflection of the current state of climate science.

Letters, WSJ, Oct 2, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/articles/we-dont-need-perfect-knowledge-to-act-on-the-climate-letters-to-the-editor-1412195749?KEYWORDS=santer

2. Climate Science and Interpreting Very Complex Systems

It is only when climate models are more accurate that we will be able to have fact-based discussions to distinguish between human and natural changes in our climate.

Letters in response Climate Science Is Not Settled, WSJ, Sep 26, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/articles/climate-science-and-interpreting-very-complex-systems-letters-to-the-editor-1411766297

3. Let’s Find Out How Much ‘Clean Power’ the Feds Really Have

The EPA should ask for a court ruling before states and utilities spend billions in compliance costs.

By Brian Potts and David Zoppo, WSJ, Oct 1, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/articles/brian-h-potts-and-david-r-zoppo-lets-find-out-how-much-clean-power-the-feds-really-have-1412204691

4. Forget Electric Cars. Natural Gas Is Powering Vehicles in Texas

One fleet of 24 natural-gas Fords will displace more gasoline than 700 Chevy Volts and ‘save’ taxpayers $5.3 million.

By Bob Lukefahr and Balu Balagopal, WSJ, Sep 26, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/articles/bob-lukefahr-and-balu-balagopal-forget-electric-cars-natural-gas-is-powering-vehicles-in-texas-1411770393

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NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Climategate Continued

Mike’s NYT trick

By Jean S. Climate Audit, Sep 26, 2014

http://climateaudit.org/2014/09/26/mikes-nyt-trick/

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

NIPCC Policy Brief – Sea Level Rise, New South Wales, AU

By Carter, et al, NIPCC, Sep 24, 2014

http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/NIPCC_NSW_Coastal.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Satellite Data: No Global Warming For Past 18 Years

By Barbara Hollingsworth, CNS News, Sep 30, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/satellite-data-no-global-warming-past-18-years

Why Don’t More People Care About Global Warming?

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 1, 2014

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/why-dont-more-people-care-about-global-warming/

[SEPP Comment: Great graphs on atmospheric CO2 and world-wide life expectancy.]

New Research Erases Global Warming from Pacific Northwest

By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Oct 1, 2014

http://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-erases-global-warming-pacific-northwest

Link to paper: Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change 1900-2012

By Johnstone and Mantua, PANS, Sep 22, 2014

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/09/16/1318371111.abstract

Apollo Astronauts: Climate Science ‘One Of the Greatest Scientific Fiascos’

By Jonathan Leake, Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Sep 28, 2014

http://www.thegwpf.com/apollo-astronauts-climate-science-one-of-the-greatest-scientific-fiascos/

Ben Santer’s 17 year itch, revisited – he and a whole stable of climate scientists have egg on their faces

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 3, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/03/ben-santers-17-year-itch-revisited-he-and-a-whole-stable-of-climate-scientists-have-egg-on-their-faces/

Climate Change and Extinction: What Is Natural?

By Tim Ball, WUWT, Sep 28, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/28/climate-change-and-extinction-what-is-natural/

Hey Andy Dessler, Let’s Debate Live

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 29, 2014

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/hey-andy-dessler-lets-debate-live/

Defending the Orthodoxy

Climate Science Is Settled Enough

The Wall Street Journal’s fresh face of climate inaction.

By Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, Slate, Oct 1, 2014

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/10/the_wall_street_journal_and_steve_koonin_the_new_face_of_climate_change.html

Paris talks: a climate for action?

By Jonathan Cobb, WNN, Sep 30, 2014

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/E-Paris-talks-a-climate-for-action-30091401.html

[SEPP Comment: Does the World Nuclear Association actually believe nuclear power will boom if it helps shut down coal-fired electricity?]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

An Already Lost Battle Against Climate Change?

By John Merline, IBD, Oct 3, 2014

http://news.investors.com/100314-720010-climate-change-fight-may-be-futile-waste-of-money.htm?p=full

[SEPP Comment: Good graph of emissions from China, U.S., and EU.]

Dreary climate summit was surely their saddest fiasco yet

The leaden speeches at this year’s UN climate summit shows our leaders’ gullibility

By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, Sep 27, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/11124976/Dreary-climate-summit-was-surely-their-saddest-fiasco-yet.html

The Obvious Failures of Climate Science That Mainstream Media Ignores

By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Sep 30, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/30/the-obvious-failures-of-climate-science-that-mainstream-media-ignores/

Climate Policy Implications of the Hiatus in Global Warming

By Ross McKitrick, Fraser Institute, Oct 2014

http://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedFiles/fraser-ca/Content/research-news/research/publications/climate-policy-implications-of-the-hiatus-in-global-warming.pdf

Low Climate Sensitivity: Accumulating Evidence

By Chip Knappenberger, Master Resource, Oct 2, 2014

https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/low-climate-sensitivity-accumulating/

Real Climate Debate Hasn’t Even Begun

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 29, 2014

http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/koonin-climate-warming-obama/2014/09/29/id/597391/

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Ditch the 2 °C warming goal

Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health. Track a range of vital signs instead, urge David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel.

By David G. Victor & Charles F. Kennel, Nature, Oct 1, 2014

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

Writers in Nature declared heretics by RC for dissing the 2 °C “target”

By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 2, 2014

http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/10/writers-in-nature-declared-heretics-by.html

Getting Beyond the 2-Degree Threshold on Global Warming,

By Andrew Revkin, NYT, Oct 3, 2014 {H/t Clyde Spencer]

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/getting-over-the-2-degree-limit-on-global-warming/?_php=true&_type=blogs&partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0

Off target

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 1, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/1/off-target.html

WOW. Nature article suggests ‘Ditch the 2 °C warming goal’

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 1, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/01/wow-nature-article-suggests-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal/

Challenging the 2 degree target

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 3, 2014

http://judithcurry.com/2014/10/03/challenging-the-2-degree-target/#more-17010

Climate change? China rebuts Obama

By George Russell, Fox News, Sep 24, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/09/24/climate-change-china-rebuts-obama/

Post-socialist EU members find climate alarmist policies undesirable

By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 1, 2014

http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/10/post-socialist-eu-members-find-climate.html

Seeking a Common Ground

Why is the Northwest U.S. warming? Natural variations or mankind’s greenhouse gases?

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 28, 2014

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/09/why-is-northwest-us-warming-natural.html

A physicist does Bayes

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 29, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/9/29/a-physicist-does-bayes.html

Models v. Observations

Review: Yet More Expert Peer-Reviewed Papers Tell Us Why Climate Models Should Land In The Dustbin

More fun with climate models: Nowhere do they fit reality

By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Oct 3, 2014

http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/03/review-yet-more-expert-peer-reviewed-papers-tell-us-why-climate-models-should-land-in-the-dustbin/

2 German Scientists Calling For Climate Modelling Moratorium: So Far Only “Failures, Flops And Fumbles”!

Fun with Climate Models: Flops, Failures and Fumbles

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated, edited by P Gosselin), Oct 1, 2014

http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/01/2-german-scientists-calling-for-climate-modelling-moratorium-so-far-only-failures-flops-and-fumbles/

Met Office Arctic Ice Forecast Hopelessly Wrong

By Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, Oct 2, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/02/met-office-arctic-ice-forecast-hopelessly-wrong/

[SEPP Comment: A 27% underestimate should give great confidence in the models?]

Model Issues

Climate models and clouds

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 1, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/1/climate-models-and-clouds.html

Measurement Issues

2014 Global Temperature So Far

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 28, 2014

http://www.thegwpf.com/2014-global-temperature-so-far/

In all probability, 2014 will continue the global surface temperature standstill in a statistically perfect manner.

Maurice Newman Calls For Independent Inquiry Into Australia’s Met

By Maurice Newman, The Australian, Via GWPF, Oct 1, 2104

http://www.thegwpf.com/maurice-newman-calls-for-independent-inquiry-into-australias-met-office/

Maurice Newman chairs the Prime Minister’s Business Advisory Council. These views are his own.

Review and Audit of Bureau of Meteorology needed

By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, Oct 1, 2014

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/review-and-audit-of-bureau-of.html

The Rutherglen Stoush on homogenisation — Bill Johnston bravely ventured onto “the Conversation”

By Bill Johnston, Jo Nova’s Blog, Oct 2, 2014

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/10/the-rutherglen-stoush-on-homogenisation-bill-johnstone-bravely-ventured-onto-the-conversation/#more-38351

Another toothless review of the BOM?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 30, 2014

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/another-toothless-review-of-the-bom/#more-38400

Changing Weather

3,264 Days Without a Major Hurricane Strike

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 1, 2014

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/3264-days-without-a-major-hurricane-strike/

Insurance companies not seeing effects from posited ‘climate change’ spawned weather disasters

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 28, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/28/insurance-companies-not-seeing-effects-from-posited-climate-change-spawned-weather-disasters/

[SEPP Comment: Could a cynic say that the fear of extreme weather events from global warming is a hoax created by insurance companies?]

Scientists reject climate change link to Colorado floods

Fluky weather pattern, not greenhouse gas emissions, caused heavy rainfall

By Valerie Richardson, Washington Time, Oct 2, 2014

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/2/scientists-reject-climate-change-link-to-colorado-/

The freak hurricane of 1821 and why it should worry every Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal resident

By Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Oct 2, 2014 [H/t Climate Etc.]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/02/the-freak-hurricane-of-1821-and-why-it-should-worry-every-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-coastal-resident/

Weatherbell had last winter and spring and summer right…how about the winter

By Joe D’Aleo, ICECAP, Sep 30, 2014

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/obvious_failure_of_climate_science_that_mainstream_media_ignores1/

Changing Seas

Climate Exaggeration: Trashing Science to Trash the GOP (Florida under water is a ruse)

By James Rust, Master Resource, Oct 1, 2014

https://www.masterresource.org/climate-exaggeration/misrepresenting-climate/

[SEPP Comment: More on exaggerations of Florida sea level rise in the New York Times.]

One wonders how many of these newly found thousands of volcanic seamounts are producing CO2 that bubble into the ocean

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 2, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/one-wonders-how-many-of-these-newly-found-thousands-of-volcanic-seamounts-are-producing-co2-that-bubble-into-the-ocean/

“One of the most important uses will be to improve the estimates of seafloor depth in the 80 percent of the oceans that remain uncharted or [where the sea floor] is buried beneath thick sediment,” the authors state.

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Antarctic sea-ice hits new high as scientists puzzle over the cause

By Robert McSweeney, The Carbon Brief, Sep 23, 2014

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/09/antarctic-sea-ice-hits-new-high-as-scientists-puzzle-over-the-cause/?utm_content=buffer8e4eb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Advances in understanding of the Greenland Ice Sheet’s meltwater channels

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 2, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/advances-in-understanding-of-the-greenland-ice-sheets-meltwater-channels/

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

No sign of health or nutrition problems from GMO livestock feed

By Staff Writers, Davis CA (SPX), Oct 02, 2014

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/No_sign_of_health_or_nutrition_problems_from_GMO_livestock_feed_999.html

Un-Science or Non-Science?

Claim: Changing Antarctic waters could trigger steep rise in sea levels

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 2, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/claim-changing-antarctic-waters-could-trigger-steep-rise-in-sea-levels/

Link to paper: Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning

By Gollege, et al. Nature Communications, Sep 29, 2014

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140929/ncomms6107/full/ncomms6107.html

[SEPP Comment: A major portion of the Northern Hemisphere is no longer covered by thousands of feet of ice as it was when the meltwater pulse occurred.]

California’s drought linked to greenhouse gases, climate change in Stanford study

By Lisa M. Krieger, San Jose Mercury News, Sep 29, 2014

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26627640/californias-drought-linked-greenhouse-gases-climate-change

To test their theory, the Stanford team applied advanced statistical techniques to a large suite of climate model simulations. One set mirrored the present climate, in which the atmosphere is warming due to human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the other, greenhouse gases were kept at a level similar to those before the Industrial Revolution began in the early 18th century.

California Drought – A Novel Statistical Analysis of Unrealistic Climate Models and of a Reanalysis That Should Not Be Equated with Reality

By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Oct 3, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-a-novel-statistical-analysis-of-unrealistic-climate-models-and-of-a-reanalysis-that-should-not-be-equated-with-reality/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Lowering Standards

Scientists Trace extreme Heat in Australia to Climate Change

By Justin Gillis, NYT, Sep 29, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/science/earth/human-related-climate-change-led-to-extreme-heat-scientists-say.html?emc=edit_th_20140930&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=59831859&_r=0

Link to report: Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

By Herring, Hoerling, Peterson and Stott, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Sep 2014

http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/assets/File/publications/BAMS_EEE_2013_Full_Report.pdf

Fury as top medical journal joins the green bandwagon: Think-tank slams BMJ’s ‘alarmist’ global warming claims

The BMJ says has called global warming a ‘public health emergency’. And said that it will make the deaths from ebola seem insignificant . Critics have described the articles as ‘alarmist’ and ‘desperate’

By Sophie Borland, Daily Mail, Oct 2, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2777192/Fury-medical-journal-joins-green-bandwagon-Think-tank-slams-BMJ-s-alarmist-global-warming-claims.html

Oh Godlee

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/2/oh-godlee.html

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Justin Gillis NYT and Politifacts get it wrong

By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Sep 28, 2014

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/justin_gillis_nyt_and_politifacts_get_it_wrong1/

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Mass haulouts of Pacific walrus and stampede deaths are not new, not due to low ice cover

By Susan Corckford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 1, 2014

http://polarbearscience.com/2014/10/01/mass-haulouts-of-pacific-walrus-and-stampede-deaths-are-not-new-not-due-to-low-ice-cover/#more-5985

[SEPP Comment: See articles immediately below.]

Mass gatherings of walrus follow-up – sea ice maps for 1978 and 1972

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 2, 2014

http://polarbearscience.com/2014/10/02/mass-gatherings-of-walrus-follow-up-sea-ice-maps-for-1978-and-1972/

[SEPP Comment: See articles immediately below.]

As sea ice melts amid global warming, 35,000 walruses crowd the shores of Alaska

By Justin Moyer, Washington Post, Oct 2, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/10/02/as-sea-ice-melts-amid-global-warming-35000-walrus-crowd-the-shores-of-alaska/?tid=hp_mm

Climate Craziness of the Week – ‘Mass gathering of 35,000 walruses is latest sign of global warming’

By Eric Worall, WUWT, Oct 1, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/01/climate-craziness-of-the-week-mass-gathering-of-35000-walruses-is-latest-sign-of-global-warming/

[SEPP Comment: See links immediately above.]

Flight ban to protect baby walruses beached in Alaska

By Staff Writers, Los Angeles (AFP), Oct 02, 2014

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Flight_ban_to_protect_baby_walruses_beached_in_Alaska_999.html

Climate Change Has Jumped the Shark

By Steven Hayward, Forbes, Sep 29, 2014

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenhayward/2014/09/29/climate-change-has-jumped-the-shark/

DOE’s Poneman: Nuclear, climate two key ‘existential threats’

By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Sep 29, 2014

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/219187-does-poneman-nuclear-climate-two-key-existential-threats

[SEPP Comment: What is an existential threat?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Another story about global warming causing volcanoes…

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 2, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/another-story-about-global-warming-causing-volcanoes/

Baseless claim from WWF: Half of global wildlife lost, says new WWF report

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 30, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/30/baseless-claim-from-wwf-half-of-global-wildlife-lost-says-new-wwf-report/

Global Warming’s Twin Crises: Gravity And The Islamic State

Editorial, IBD, Oct 1, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100114-719840-west-antarctic-ice-melt-gravity-loss.htm

Portland will Still Be Cool, but Anchorage May Be the Place to be

On a Warmer Planet, Which Cities Will be Safest?

By Jennifer Kingson, NYT, Sep 22, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/on-a-warmer-planet-which-cities-will-be-safest.html?_r=2&gwh=D60CBB23BA9965FDAC1E81638D1C9B07&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_now

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Quote of the day, murderous edition

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 30, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/9/30/quote-of-the-day-murderous-edition.html

“Via Warwick Hughes comes this award of money from the government of the Australian Capital Territory:

Aspen Island Theatre Company: $18,793 to assist with costs of the creative development of a new theatre work, ‘Kill Climate Deniers’.

Classy.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

NYC Students Will be ‘Environmental Stewards’ Despite Lack of Math and English Skills

City spending $23 million on solar panel installations

By Mary Lou Byrd, Washington Free Beacon, Oct 1, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://freebeacon.com/issues/nyc-students-will-be-environmental-stewards-despite-lack-of-math-and-english-skills/

Expanding the Orthodoxy

The new ploy of climate activistim: attacking financial institutions

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 29, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/29/climate-activistims-new-ploy-attacking-financial-institutions/

Questioning European Green

Expensive green energy a ‘bad gamble’ as ministers slash gas price forecasts

Ministers cut forecasts of gas prices for the rest of the decade by as much as a fifth, meaning green energy will remain relatively far more costly

By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, Oct 3, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11137332/Expensive-green-energy-a-bad-gamble-as-ministers-slash-gas-price-forecasts.html

The underpinning of energy policy collapses

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/2/the-underpinning-of-energy-policy-collapses.html

Close down DECC

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 3, 2014

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/10/3/close-down-decc.html

Quote of the day, consumer care edition

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 3, 2014

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/3/quote-of-the-day-consumer-care-edition.html

Six EU states cast doubt on proposed 2030 climate goals

Central European countries reject renewables and efficiency goals as part of EU’s 2030 climate package

By Sphie Yeo, RTCC, Oct 1, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.rtcc.org/2014/10/01/six-eu-states-cast-doubt-on-proposed-2030-climate-goals/

Alternative Energy: Should other nations follow Germany’s lead on promoting solar power?

By Ryan Carlyle, Quora, Jul 21, 2014

http://www.quora.com/Alternative-Energy/Should-other-nations-follow-Germanys-lead-on-promoting-solar-power-1/answer/Ryan-Carlyle

EU must reconsider climate targets if UN talks fail, says energy commissioner

By Tom Revell, Blue & Green, Sep 27, 2014

http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2014/09/27/eu-must-reconsider-climate-targets-if-un-talks-fail-says-energy-commissioner/

Germany’s CO2 Emissions Rising

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 30, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/germanys-co2-emissions-rising/

When Green Dreams Beget Brown Nightmares

By Walter Russell Mead & Staff, American Interest, Sep 27, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/09/27/when-green-dreams-beget-brown-nightmares/

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Earth-Friendly Energy Is Anything But

By Deroy Murdock, National Review, Sep 26, 2014 [H/t NCPA]

http://www.nationalreview.com/energy-week/388892/earth-friendly-energy-anything-deroy-murdock

Oregon LEEDing The Way To Break The Timber Certification Monopoly

Editorial, Daily Caller, Oct 1, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/01/oregon-leeding-the-way-to-break-the-timber-certification-monopoly/

Non-Green Jobs

Fossil Fuels Are Key To Our Economy — Don’t Divest Their Stocks

By Robert Bradley, IBD, Oct 2, 2014

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-on-the-right/100214-720043-us-schools-shouldnt-divest-their-fossil-fuel-stock-holdings.htm?p=full

Funding Issues

Developing countries’ fund key to climate pact

By Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Sep 29, 2014

http://washingtonexaminer.com/developing-countries-fund-key-to-climate-pact/article/2553989

[SEPP Comment: $100 Billion per year is a good will token?]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

An opportunity to rein in the EPA

States will be faced with passing on the costs of mandated upgrades

By Todd Snitchler, Washington Times, Sep 26, 2014

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/26/snitchler-an-opportunity-to-rein-in-the-epa/

EPA chief’s climate pitch ignores rising electric prices

Gina McCarthy insists reducing carbon emissions, fighting climate change boost economy

By Ben Wolfgang, Washington Times, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/25/epa-chief-pushes-green-energy-agenda-ignores-high-/

Citing climate change, Obama fences in huge Pacific area after wheeling and dealing

By George Russell, Fox News, Sep 26, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/09/26/citing-climate-change-obama-fences-in-huge-pacific-area-after-wheeling-and/?intcmp=latestnews

EPA pushing tougher emissions rules for some steel manufacturers

By Tim Devaney, The Hill, Oct 3, 2014

http://thehill.com/regulation/219703-epa-pushing-tougher-emissions-rules-for-steel-manufacturers

Small Business Administration hits EPA over water rule

By Tim Devaney, The Hill, Oct 1, 2014

http://thehill.com/regulation/219516-small-business-administration-criticizes-epa-over-new-waters-rule

Energy Issues – Non-US

Government to remove barriers to onshore oil and gas and deep geothermal exploration

By Staff Writers, Department of Energy & Climate Change, UK Govt, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-remove-barriers-to-onshore-oil-and-gas-and-deep-geothermal-exploration

How did the UK grid respond to losing few EDF nuclear reactors?

By Jani-Petri Martikainen, PassiiviIdentiteetti, Sep 16, 2014, [H/t GWPF]

http://passiiviidentiteetti.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/how-did-the-uk-grid-respond-to-losing-few-edf-nuclear-reactors/

Energy Issues — US

An Analysis of the War on Fossil Fuels

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 3, 2014

https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/an-analysis-of-the-war-on-fossil-fuels/

NERC’s Polar Vortex Review Bares Natural Gas Dependency, Equipment Vulnerabilities

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 2, 2014

http://www.powermag.com/nercs-polar-vortex-review-bares-natural-gas-dependency-equipment-vulnerabilities/?hq_e=el&hq_m=2950548&hq_l=5&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: The “Polar Vortex Review” detracts from the serious issue of energy security during cold snaps such as in the 1950s & 1960s.]

Washington’s Control of Energy

API says its oil train proposals offer reasonable solution

By Daniel J. Graeber, Washington (UPI), Oct 1, 2014

http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/API_says_its_oil_train_proposals_offer_reasonable_solution_999.html

Green Energy and Red Tape

By Katie Tubb and Jack Spencer, Heritage Foundation, Sep 29, 2014

http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/9/green-energy-and-red-tape

Oil lobby: Rail tank Car Phaseout Could Cost $45.2B

By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 30, 2014

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/219348-oil-lobby-rail-tank-car-phaseout-could-cost-452b

[SEPP Comment: Washington must stop the US oil and gas boom somehow!]

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Japanese companies band together to test methane hydrates

By Sara Stefanini, Natural Gas Daily, Oct 2, 2014

http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/13807/japanese-companies-band-together-to-test-methane-hydrates

How the oil and gas boom is changing America

By Karen Bleier, Vox, Oct 2, 2014 [H/t Climate Etc.]

http://www.vox.com/2014/10/2/6892781/how-the-oil-and-gas-boom-is-changing-america

Move over Saudi Arabia, here comes U.S. oil and gas

By Rob Nikolewski, New Mexico Watchdog, Sep 30, 2014

http://watchdog.org/174064/move-saudi-arabia-comes-u-s-oil-gas-market/

America’s Energy Outlook Is Fracking Great, For Now

By Christopher Helman, Forbes, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/09/25/americas-energy-outlook-is-fracking-great-for-now/

Link to report: Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale

By Thomas Tunstall, et al. Center for Community and business Research, U. of Texas, San Antonio, Sep 2014

http://iedtexas.org/images/documents/2014_EFS_Release_Oct.pdf

[SEPP Comment: How long is “for now” – 50 plus years?]

Baker Hughes to start disclosing fracking chemicals

By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 1, 2014

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/219443-baker-hughes-to-start-disclosing-fracking-chemicals

Exxon issues report on how it mitigates fracking risks

By Daniel J. Graeber, Irving, Texas (UPI), Oct 1, 2014

http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Exxon_issues_report_on_how_it_mitigates_fracking_risks_999.html

Return of King Coal?

Russia, China agree to develop Siberian coal

By Leonid Homeriki, David Miller, Russia Beyond the Headlines, Sep 29, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://rbth.com/business/2014/09/29/russia_china_agree_to_develop_siberian_coal_40187.html

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Germany’s Solar Failure

By Doug Hoffman, Resilient Earth, Sep 26, 2014 [H/t GWPF]

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/germanys-solar-failure

Solar energy could dominate electricity by 2050: IEA

By Sarah McFarlane, Reuters, Sep 29, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/29/us-solar-iea-electricity-idUKKCN0HO11K20140929

[SEPP Comment: Still need to resolve the problems of reliability and costs.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

The contradictions of biomass

By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 3, 2014

http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/contradictions-biomass

Carbon Schemes

First large-scale carbon capture goes online in Canada

By Staff Writers, Ottawa (AFP), Oct 01, 2014

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/First_large-scale_carbon_capture_goes_online_in_Canada_999.html

[SEPP Comment: According to EPA and DOE, a proven, commercially technology. Let us review the success in 5 years.]

California Dreaming

Fed Up With Federal Inaction, States Act Alone on Cap-and-Trade

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com, Washington DC (SPX), Oct 01, 2014

http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Fed_Up_With_Federal_Inaction_States_Act_Alone_on_Cap_and_Trade_999.html

Health, Energy, and Climate

Parker Gallant: WHO’s facts are right!

By Parker Gallant, Energy Probe, Sep 12, 2014 [H/t Energy and Environmental Newsletter]

http://ep.probeinternational.org/2014/09/12/parker-gallant-whos-facts-are-right/

Environmental Industry

Enron: Robert Kennedy Jr.’s Corporate Climate Champion?

By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Oct 3, 2014

https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/enron-robert-kennedy-jr-favorite/

Other Scientific News

The Lost Donkeys of Science

By Abraham Loeb, Project Syndicate, Oct 2, 2014

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fund-science-research-not-specific-outcomes-by-abraham-loeb-2014-10

Other News that May Be of Interest

Happy 90th Birthday, Dear S. Fred Singer! Alles Gute Zum Geburtstag!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 27, 2014

http://notrickszone.com/2014/09/27/happy-90th-birthday-dear-s-fred-singer-alles-gute-zum-geburtstag/

How To Protect A Vulnerable America From EMP Threat

By Henry Cooper and Robert Pfaltzgraff, IBD, Oct 3, 2014

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/100314-720276-countering-an-emp-attack-on-america.htm?p=full

A Better Way to Preserve Endangered Species

By Staff Writers, NCPA, Oct 2, 2014

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=24915&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD

Fulfilling the Promise of the Endangered Species Act: The Case for an Endangered Species Reserve Program

By Brian Seasholes, Reason Foundation, Sep 2014

http://reason.org/files/endangered_species_act_reform.pdf

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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

Scientists speed up analysis of human link to wild weather

By Megan Rowling, Reuters, Oct 2, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/02/us-foundation-climatechange-weather-idUSKCN0HR13220141002?feedType=RSS&feedName=scienceNews&rpc=76

Extreme Stupidity: Bremen’s ‘Weser Kurier’ Daily Now Claiming Climate Change Is Damaging Church Organs

Bremen’s Weser Kurier daily is very sure: “Climate change is damaging organs”

By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated, edited by P Gosselin) –

http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/02/extreme-stupidity-bremens-weser-kurier-daily-now-claiming-climate-change-is-damaging-church-organs/

Offshore Wind Turbines Could Tame Hurricanes

Huge Arrays of Windmills Could Protect U.S. Coastal Cities—and Produce Power

By Peter Green, WSJ, Sep 28, 2014

http://online.wsj.com/articles/offshore-wind-turbines-could-tame-hurricanes-1411937788

[SEPP Comment: May be behind a paywall ($$).

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15 thoughts on “Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #152

    • We used to have an expression in my corporate work when we needed a laugh due to a failure of foresight or execution on our part. “Too bad… it would have been good enough for government work.”

  1. I’m sure that everyone (at least Americans) have heard the expression…”Good enough for government work.”

  2. Meanwhile, the hazard insurance boys are laughing their way to the bank. In an interview with CNBC, Warren Buffet noted that, “Hurricane insurance has been all profit for the past ten years. There have been fewer extreme weather events.”
    Insurance writers Heaven occurred when climate change propaganda spooked public perception into goosing insurance premiums while Mother Nature delivered smoother than normal sailing. Now the industry is facing the flip-side of that coin, which is investors, spooked by that same propaganda machine, depressing the price of insurance stocks.

  3. Reading and watching all this nonsense about the causes of climate change, the more I have proof that my discovery of the true causes of climate change, the natural right path, obtained by the interpretation of the laws of nature. The man did not need any computer models, because I have an overview of all causes, which avoids science, supported by policy. You just continue to spend trillions of dollars in vain to prove completely wrong, which is not based on logic, and has not deciphered the true cause of these changes, which is evidence of the big pile of worthless theories and models of paper.
    If someone makes sense if you can understand what I have to offer, then we can solve this problem, but only with a contractual obligation.

  4. In the last 18 years CO2 has risen about .0022% as a percentage of atmosphere, pretty close to how much the earth has warmed in that period….Maybe we should be worry about what has been reduced .0022% and add more of that stuff?

  5. Item #4
    “At Mike Scully’s Apple Towing in Houston, just one of their big Ford F650 tow trucks saves more gasoline each year than 20 Nissan Leaf electric cars. When it comes to reducing carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and other pollutants, Mike’s F650s are equally impressive, and his fuel cost per mile is about the same as that of a four-seat Jeep Wrangler. What is Apple Towing’s secret? The F650 tow trucks run on natural gas, which…”
    Sadly that is a load of garbage. A Nissan Leaf in Texas consumes about 200W/mile.. Or 250W/mile after the power station.. Power generators hit the limit the carnot cycle with up to 40% or so efficiency. Then add in the electrical bill to compress the gas and waste off the latent heat from compression; that would power 20 Leafs alone..
    On the other hand…. What this guy is doing is great!! Wholly recommended. Especially if the waste heat goes into into his business/house/hot water and you don’t mind living next door to huge compressors.
    Most in the EU/UK use LPG. It halves the vehicles standard fuel cost but sadly does not fully discriminate from that warring middleman who cuts peoples heads off and secretly hates us.

    • I don’t want to subscribe to the Wall Street Journal to read the article. Could you tell me if Mike’s tow trucks use Compressed Natural Gas (CPG) or Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)? I realize that the amount of either LNG or CNG required to be equivalent to a gallon of Diesel is only relevant when speaking in large volumes. I was just curious what the storage costs would be to maintain the fuel onboard the vehicle relative to Diesel storage.
      One gallon of LPG has a lower energy density than a gallon of gasoline (LPG is 73% as energy dense as gasoline blends). Which means you will have to refuel your onboard supply more frequently than you would a gasoline powered vehicle do to an necessary increase in fuel consumption. Couple that with the costs of maintaing the propane in high pressure vessel, and LPG would be more expensive to use in the U.S. What are the costs of LPG in the EU/UK? Perhaps the costs are lower in that market despite the increased fuel consumption and maintenance charges.

      • Go to the WSJ, copy the paywalled article’s headline, put it into a search engine and click on the fitting result (usually the first item).

  6. if we cannot successfully model the natural influence, we cannot hope to model the human influence.”

    Wow, that is a mouthful and strikes at the heart of the climate blind spot.
    Who knows someday like in Star Trek we will have the technology to terraform entire planets based on our extensive knowledge of how a planets living eco system works, until then we have climate scientists and their fantasies.

  7. “…the goal [is] preventing global temperatures from rising beyond 2 °C (about 4°F) above the pre-industrial levels, whatever that is.”

    Yes, exactly “whatever that is”. No valid baselines and you have no chance at valid measurements of change. Not that that ever stopped a bureaucrat from coming up with yet another metric.
    Meanwhile doesn’t it seem preposterous to think we can measure the global temperature (again whatever that is – the perpetual moving target) in tenths of a degree? Where I live temperature at the same time of day can vary by a number of degrees within a 10 mile radius. I realize that temperatures are attempted to be measured at the same location at the same time of day (with various success) but come on, we were able to get this right globally within tenths of a degree? Really? Have we drifted away from reality to that degree (pun intended)?
    Satelite measured temperatures have been around for 40 years now, which can greatly improve consistency of record taking. Since inception, satellite records show the troposphere warming and the stratosphere cooling. While some claim this aligns with increased human generated CO2 greenhouse gases as fact instead of the conjecture it is, the question remains what does the term “global temperature” actually measure. Isn’t the stratosphere part of the global temperature and should be included in that temperature? The global temperature really is a full understanding of temperature throughout the levels of the atmosphere down to the depths of all the oceans to temperatures below the earths land surface. Surface temperature is the most important to us in our day to day lives but to measure only surface temperature and claim that is the earths temperature is to be commited to ignorance.

  8. Particle physics uses 5-sigma as the test for validity, one chance in 2,000,000 of occurring by chance if the Null is true. Climate Science uses 2-sigma, one chance in 20, 5 orders of magnitude lower confidence, as its gold standard. It is worthless.

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