An extraordinary meeting of climate skeptics and climate scientists in Bath

Many people wondered why I would travel halfway across the world to attend the Cook and Mann lectures. The answer to that question is: I decided to come on a whim (I also had not visited the UK since I started blogging) hoping that other more valuable meetings could occur. As I pointed out in my posting last Saturday there was little if anything new in the Cook lecture on Friday night and I don’t expect much new in the Mann lecture either. But, I also pointed out the importance of face-to-face communications in overcoming walls that can be built up in electronic communications.

There has been one other meeting thanks to the foresight of Nicholas Lewis and others; an extraordinary dinner meeting occurred on Sunday night, September 21st, at his home in Bath, UK. In attendance was a nearly equal balance of climate scientists and climate skeptics, some of whom were also scientists.

The photo of that Sunday night meeting is shown below.

Bath dinner 21Sep14Starting with the front row from left to right we have: Prof. Paul Valdes, of Bristol University, Prof. David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, David Holland independent climate and FOIA researcher, Prof. Ed Hawkins researcher at Reading University, myself, Prof. Ted Shepherd of Reading University, Prof. Tamsin Edwards, researcher at Bristol University. Top row from left to right: Prof. Richard Betts of the Met Office, Marcel Crok, Dutch freelance science writer and initiator of climatedialogue.org, David Rose of the Mail on Sunday newspaper, Prof. Michael Kelly of Technology at Cambridge University, and Nicholas Lewis independent climate scientist and our gracious host.

The evening’s discussion was spirited and in-depth, covering topics of climate sensitivity, scientific publishing, science policy, the surface record, and finding agreements amongst ourselves on the various topics that we discussed as well as many of the topics that are in contention.

Since the venue was under Chatham House Rule, I am not at liberty to discuss any of the particular conversations that I was involved with nor will I discuss the conversations of others. However, with prior approval of all participants involved we’ve all agreed to bending the rule slightly to show the photo and name the participants. I think it is important to do so, because I cannot recall any similar meeting. Our goal is to lead by example.

More than anything this meeting demonstrated that a group of people with diverse ideas and some levels of distrust due to heightened rhetoric can come together and have an intelligent, polite, and enlightening discussion. I felt it important that this historic meeting be noted and to let it serve as an example of cooperation and hope for more future meetings so that we can understand each other better.

I was honored to be there and I thank you all for your willingness to participate and have a respectful discussion. I give a special thanks to Nic Lewis for his choices, his hospitality, and his foresight in organizing this meeting. A special thanks also to Sarah Lewis for her hospitality, which made this gathering excellent and seamless.

 

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Mike
September 23, 2014 4:10 pm

IMHO: Chatham house rules are the worst atrocity to free speech…they are used to hide bad behavior you should have walked out once this was declared.

Mike
Reply to  Mike
September 23, 2014 4:15 pm

I noticed that Andrew Montford wasn’t there…no surprise since he has voiced his opposition to CH rules in multiple blog posts.

Reply to  Mike
September 23, 2014 4:28 pm

Well, not that Wikipedia is correct on these matters, but they say:
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.
Rather than walk out, I suspect some might not have been there otherwise. Therefore, this is better than nothing since eye-ball to eye-ball discussions can be much more beneficial than damaging, as long as the participants remain gentlemen/gentlewomen. One would surely no longer be in that “gentle” category if they agreed to Chatham House Rule and than did not adhere to it.
At least, that would be my take.

JEM
Reply to  JohnWho
September 23, 2014 4:34 pm

So alright then, we’re agreed.
Anthony, you can post the menu.

mpainter
Reply to  JohnWho
September 23, 2014 5:16 pm

One benefit of these rules is that no one can maliciously ascribe false statements to another participant without breaking the rules and incurring odium.This provides a better atmosphere for frank discussions. It is a step toward opening a public dialogue which will be to the advantage of the skeptics as we are correct.
I do not wish to seem cynical but IMO it is the 18 year “pause” that made such a meeting possible.

Reply to  Mike
September 23, 2014 6:22 pm

The lisbon conference with Judith Curry, nick stokes, myself, tallbloke, mcintyre, mckittrick, von storch, webtser, goddard.. was Chatham house.
the speech was plenty free. agreeing not to discuss what we discussed or who said what, all us to speak freely.
When we accept, freely accept, restrictions, free speech is not abridged

Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 23, 2014 6:40 pm

Yes – and openness and decorum result though vigorous and great disagreement may be encouraged. Sometimes the most free speech is in a restricted venue. It would be nice if there were a tad more decorum even here, myself included. The drive by insults add little, feeding of trolls is counterproductive as trolls are already in a closed loop having already decided what is best for all of us. I can change my mind when given good reasons to do so. Some can’t, but that is their problem. Thanks Steven. Good comment.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 23, 2014 7:41 pm

Mosher writes “When we accept, freely accept, restrictions, free speech is not abridged”
Agreed. In this context CH encourages free speech…at the time. The down point is that us rabble dont get to hear it. I’m sure all involved benefitted greatly from frank and open discussion “off the record”

Lance of BC
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 24, 2014 12:05 am

Well well Mosh, two of the worst thread bombers on this site doing the Chatham house with some climate heavy hitters in the (so called) skeptic/science view meeting, how interesting. I’ve deducted you’re in the skinny with pics with Mr.WUWT from the past. Yep, I’ve suspected you, nick stokes and others are plants to put discord and spice up traffic/ranks for hits on your site for Mr. WUWT. This is most distressing to me.
But thank you, what a revelation, as the world of crazy{NYC/UN) is about to embrace CAGW and genocide you’re all claiming Chatham “F-ING” house rules, what a joke. Nero played the fiddle as Rome burned.
I don’t know what’s worse, going to a speaking engagement with Cook and making small talk(WTF?) and then blowing off the opportunity to question Mann….. or lecturing us non-scientists/plebes about Chatham house rules because we don’t have a PHD, or an invite…
Hey, here’s a thought…., maybe you shouldn’t talk/post about it at all(you to Mosh).. Just saying…
Or… here’s another thought, I don’t think you understand how many of us web skeptics/studied HAD knowledge before we came here. Myself, I’ve had to go it alone with my limited info for over 15 years without the WUWT cushion.
Mosher has his points though cryptic(and more often just wrong), but knowing he is involved with nick and probably other thread destroyers tainting this site. Should us regular smart plebes just ignore this ? Are we not at war?
PS – I AM.

Keitho
Editor
Reply to  Steven Mosher
September 24, 2014 10:35 am

Well done Steven and big ups to Anthony. This sort of thing never does any harm and perspectives always improve.

Reply to  Mike
September 24, 2014 2:10 am

This was a private social meeting, in the participants own time.
They have every right & expectation to agree whatever they want, and, expect mutual confidentiality.

September 23, 2014 4:27 pm

I am old enough to remember the warm glow people would feel after a US-USSR Detente meeting.
It would last a whole week sometimes.

observa
September 23, 2014 4:29 pm

At last there appears to be a true consensus emerging as this article (paywalled) by Steven Koonin in The Australian summarises very eruditely-
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/inexact-science-makes-it-impossible-to-accurately-predict-future-climate/story-e6frg6z6-1227066897024
He begins-
“THE idea that “climate science is settled” runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on ­issues related to energy, greenhouse gas emissions and the environment, it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.”
and after a great summation of the current state of play concludes rightly with-
“Any serious discussion of the changing climate must begin by acknowledging not only the scientific certainties but also the uncertainties, especially in projecting the future. Recognising those limits, rather than ignoring them, will lead to a more sober and ultim­ately more productive discussion of climate change and climate policies. To do otherwise is a great disservice to climate science.”
Footnote:
Steven E. Koonin was undersecretary for science in the US Energy Department during President Barack Obama’s first term and is director of the Centre for Urban Science and Progress at New York University. His previous positions include professor of theoretical physics and provost at the California Institute of Technology, as well as chief scientist of BP, where his work focused on renewable and low-carbon energy technologies.

Reply to  observa
September 23, 2014 4:34 pm
Mike T
September 23, 2014 4:29 pm

Excellent work, this is what we need.

September 23, 2014 4:30 pm

This meeting was a great idea and a credit to all involved.
No-one is so smart that additional open-minded insight is of no value. In any case, before its all over some participants may need a bridge forward. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

JEM
September 23, 2014 4:32 pm

‘Jaw, jaw, jaw is better than war, war, war’ was I believe attributed to Churchill, but you still have to make time for chew, chew, chew…

Robert of Ottawa
September 23, 2014 4:38 pm

Did the Warmistas appreciate how their “science” had been hijacked by their political paymasters?

manicbeancounter
September 23, 2014 4:43 pm

It is great that people with different points of view talk to one another. One of the worst aspects of global warming is the polarized views, and a total failure to appreciate that people might, with good reason, have views different from your own.
The Chatham House rules can be used to make decisions behind closed doors, like the BBC did in its decision to suspend its duty of impartiality with respect to climate science and climate politics. However, when used properly, they CH rules be used to voice opinions in private on controversial topics.

September 23, 2014 4:50 pm

Good work!
Btw. Over the years I noticed that there are three things many AWG-believers have a hard time understanding not only as true but the impact of those three:
* Tectonical plates
* Ice Age from peak to now and especially the impact of Archimedes Principle such as landrise resp. erosion
* What happens when a warm straith meets a cold. Density, saltination, changes of direction resp impacts such as new weather phenomen.
If someone is reading this has special knowledge in those fields, I for one would love to see information in detail presented here in wattsup. Please would you write some lines about those for most of us skeptic known factors?

September 23, 2014 4:57 pm

The Chatham House Rule reads as follows:
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.
Q. Can a list of attendees at the meeting be published?
A. No – the list of attendees should not be circulated beyond those participating in the meeting. – See more at: http://www.chathamhouse.org/about/chatham-house-rule#sthash.MKKGN3jG.dpuf
http://www.chathamhouse.org/about/chatham-house-rule

Reply to  Ulric Lyons
September 23, 2014 5:46 pm

Ulric, you missed the part where Anthony said he had permission from all involved to publish the pic and IDs.
This is a wonderful episode toward bridging both scientific and ideological differences.

Harry Passfield
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 24, 2014 10:22 am

Rud: Have I missed something? Anthony is free to disclose what was said – but he mustn’t say who said it. N’est-ce pas?

observa
September 23, 2014 5:00 pm

JohnWho September 23, 2014 at 4:34 pm
‘Hey observa –
I’m just guessing you did not observe this’
Yeah you’re right but good to know it’s getting around the world in all the right places 🙂

September 23, 2014 5:00 pm

You have the right idea(s) on how to do it and I commend you. You lead by example – a lot of people could learn from your approach. Well done!

Clint Culver
Reply to  J. Philip Peterson
September 23, 2014 5:15 pm

This is encouraging. As a person seeking less biased discussions, this is the sort of thing that keeps me searching for answers.
There are many sites, but a quick look at the comments section has turned me off from most of them. This place is one of the better ones.

Evan Jones
Editor
September 23, 2014 5:02 pm

Notice how Anthony dominates the table.

imoira
Reply to  Evan Jones
September 23, 2014 6:20 pm

I noticed that too.

david eisenstadt
September 23, 2014 5:14 pm

well done anthony. well done.

John Whitman
September 23, 2014 5:16 pm

I toast all of you who met over food and libations in Bath at the Lewis household.
Cheers!
John

Zeke
September 23, 2014 5:19 pm

I know – you could write an allegory! That would not break the agreement. (;

September 23, 2014 5:35 pm

Well some would day a good reason for a Bath.
The object is to have a win for truth.
Getting along is not required for the win in my not so humble opinion.

ossqss
September 23, 2014 5:49 pm

Bravo!
I am hopeful there was discussion of “The OAS” also? Which I predict will become one of the most important societies in climate science moving forward.

Jimbo
September 23, 2014 5:50 pm

More than anything this meeting demonstrated that a group of people with diverse ideas and some levels of distrust due to heightened rhetoric can come together and have an intelligent, polite, and enlightening discussion.

I can’t help but wonder whether this is one of the 5 phases of the climbdown. Would this meeting have taken place 5 years ago? This is guerrilla warfare, this is not the time to be nice and chatty with people who were scaremongering and deceiving while asking for more funding. Just my opinion.

Reply to  Jimbo
September 24, 2014 1:54 am

Honest and open science won’t be made on the graves of the crushed foes.
It needs people to be willing to bend and move forward and be unafraid.
You can bomb guerrillas in their foxholes put you won’t get them to build a new world that way.
They’ll just build new foxholes.

Reply to  M Courtney
September 24, 2014 2:34 am

But wasn’t it Max Planck who said that science advances one funeral at a time?

Brad Keyes
Reply to  M Courtney
September 25, 2014 3:41 am

Good point except Tamsin and Richard don’t really need to do anything new. They’re simply practicing climate science, as far as I can tell, which none of us would object to. The real problem is the Phil Jones or the Hockey Team member or the Naomi Oreskes who will never build anything worthwhile, because he/she doesn’t LIKE science and only knows how to sabotage it.
With apologies to Christopher Hitchens, coexistence with anti-scientists is neither possible nor desirable.

Brad Keyes
Reply to  Jimbo
September 25, 2014 3:34 am

I don’t recognise all the names but Tamsin and Richard Betts don’t monger fear in my observation. I suspect they’d have been just as happy to meet 5 years ago. (Whereas other “opponents” like Mann and co. won’t play nice no matter how many years we wait.)

September 23, 2014 5:53 pm

I am happy to hear the meeting took place. I am sure that positive results will be forthcoming.

MattN
September 23, 2014 5:58 pm

Outstanding. Props to all.

September 23, 2014 6:05 pm

You are correct. But it does help settle the truce afterwards. Which is equally important.
I would direct your attention to Lincoln’s second inaugural address. If you want it in inspiring form, visit the portion I refer to that is inscribed on a wall of his memorial in Washington, DC.

Claude Harvey
September 23, 2014 6:11 pm

For the life of me, I cannot understand how ANY competent scientist can look at the climate data accumulated over the past 40 years and see evidence of “positive feedback” operating in response to CO2-forced greenhouse warming. I’d be afraid I might choke on my dinner while trying to be civil to anyone who claimed to have seen such physical evidence. If another party told me instead that one cannot actually SEE the evidence because the Climate Gods have hid it in the ocean, I suspect I might blow that choked down dinner and ruin a lovely party.

David A
September 23, 2014 6:24 pm

OFF topic but please check this paper out..
The error margins for surface GAT just increased 100 fold.
http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/E___E_algorithm_error_07-Limburg.pdf
here is what maybe the money quote…
“By knowing this the minimum uncertainty for every annual global mean temperature
should be expanded not only to the value described here i.e. with 95 % confidence
interval to ± 1.084 °C, but should be at least 3 to 5 times wider. Thus, the average
global temperature anomaly for the last 150 years is dissolved in a wide noisy
uncertainty band, which is much wider than the whole assumed variation of the 20
th century. Therefore every attempt to attribute any possible forcing to that variation remains scientific speculation.”

Reply to  David A
September 23, 2014 7:52 pm

Thanks, David, the Limburg paper looks good.

Kelvin Vaughan
Reply to  David A
September 24, 2014 2:22 am

An anomaly doesn’t tell you much really apart from which way the temperature appeared to be heading between two chosen points in time.

pottereaton
September 23, 2014 6:26 pm

Well done, Anthony.

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