The Week That Was: 2014-08-16 (August 16, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: If you put feedback into a computer model, you can prove anything. John Brignell, 2002 http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/computer_modelling.htm
Number of the Week: 15 times
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Discovering History? A paper by Zhengyu Liu et al. of the University of Wisconsin-Madison raises an important question. As cited in past TWTW’s, observations show that there has been a general cooling since the Holocene Climate Optimum, about 8,000 to 5,000 years ago. [The paper states about 10,000 to 6,000 years ago.] There have been other warm periods in the past 10,000 years. In his presentation at the July International Conference on Climate Change, Geologist Don Easterbrook asserted that until the Little Ice Age began about 1300 AD, the climate had been 2.5 to 5.5 º F warmer than today for about 8,500 years.
Using three climate models, Liu and his colleagues ran multiple simulations, which showed global warming over the past 10,000 years. In comments in the University press release Liu states” “Data from observation says global cooling. The physical model says it has to be warming.” He asks which is right the physical observations or the models?
Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the difference between model results and observations are presented as a conundrum, a difficult problem which has no clear answer, a riddle. Further, the PNAS contained the following editorial comments. Significance: Marine and terrestrial proxy records suggest global cooling during the Late Holocene, following the peak warming of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (∼10 to 6 ka) until the rapid warming induced by increasing anthropogenic greenhouses gases. However, the physical mechanism responsible for this global cooling has remained elusive. Here, we show that climate models simulate a robust global annual mean warming in the Holocene, mainly in response to rising CO2 and the retreat of ice sheets. This model-data inconsistency demands a critical reexamination of both proxy data and models. [Boldface added.]
In short, the PNAS release downplays the significance of the inconsistency between the models and observations and assumes that the recent warming was caused by greenhouse gases, chiefly carbon dioxide. This assumption is the critical issue – the influence of greenhouse gases (particularly carbon dioxide (CO2)) on the earth’s temperatures. Note that the increase in CO2 during the Holocene was not significant, until the latter part of the 20th century.
To SEPP, there is no conundrum. Models are not necessarily representations of the physical world. If the model has not been verified and validated, there is no reason to accept that the model is an accurate representation on the physical world. No climate model has been verified and validated. In general, the climate models erroneously forecast a strong warming trend for over a decade where there has been no warming trend. This failure clearly indicates that the climate models overstate the influence of CO2 on the earth’s temperatures. The climate establishment is engaged in a mind-set that is incorrect. See links under Models v. Observations and http://climateconferences.heartland.org/don-easterbrook-iccc9-panel-19/
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Discovering Past Discoveries: In 1939, Carl-Gustaf Arvid Rossby identified Rossby waves in the atmosphere. Variations in the waves have long been associated with hot spells and cold spells. The general pattern of wind flow is called the circumpolar vortex. As explained by H.H. Lamb in Climate, History, and the Modern World, copyrighted in 1982 and 1995, the circumpolar vortex is the “single great circumpolar flow of winds circuiting from west to east around the Earth over each hemisphere, mainly over the middle latitudes.” … it “is the main flow of the atmosphere, carrying most of the momentum. The flow is never strictly circular around the pole, but exhibits more or less prominent wave-like meanders, the so-called ridges and troughs in the pattern.” These meanders are called Rossby waves and are associated with the jet stream.
As Tim Ball has explained on his web site numerous times, if the Rossby waves are in a strong, U-shaped, north-south direction, (called longitudinal or Meridional), high and low pressure systems tend to remain fixed over a region of the earth for an extended period. Such stationary pressure systems intensify whatever is characteristic for the system for that region and time of year such as droughts, floods, hot spells, and cold spells, etc.
In a paper published in PNAS, members of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) claim they have strong statistical evidence that since the year 2000 the north-south Rossby waves have been “almost twice as frequent as before”, resulting in far more extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. They attribute this increase to the melting of the Arctic sea ice. PIK has blamed the summer melting Arctic sea ice on human-caused global warming from CO2 emissions.
As usual, the word “before” in the phrase “almost twice as frequent as before” remains undefined. Since variations in Rossby waves have been known for decades, one must question the very short period covered by the paper.
On her blog, Jo Nova presents a chart of the annual values of the U.S. Heat Wave Index from 1895 to 2013. Since 2000, the index is not higher than the mid-1950s, and early and late 1980s. The extremely high heat index for the 1930s debunks any claimed relationship between CO2 emissions and heat waves in the US. Of course, one cannot generalize for the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere, but there is more than sufficient reason to doubt the rigor of the paper. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science? Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague? and http://drtimball.com/2012/current-global-weather-patterns-normal-despite-government-and-media-distortions/
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CO2 Influence: Writing in Watts Up With That, Ed Hoskins gives a solid presentation, with good graphs, on the logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentrations and its greenhouse effect. One must be aware that, in general, the experimental research was done with dry air, which does not include the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor. High humidity of a particular region will reduce the influence of CO2 for that region. The vexing problems are feedbacks. The alarmists, and their models, predict net positive feedbacks. The main assertion is that a warming from CO2 will be amplified by an increase in water vapor. The skeptics assert that the net feedbacks are negative – increase in cloud cover. The feedback issue makes it difficult to determine the temperature effect of a doubling of CO2. With the current trend of no significant warming or cooling as CO2 emissions are increasing, nature seems to be supporting the skeptics. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Disappearing in the Deep? On his web site, Roy Spencer gives a plausible explanation of how the deep ocean can warm, without an observable surface warming. This explanation is useful. But, it does not explain how a CO2 warming, which occurs in the atmosphere, can disappear into the deep oceans without being observed in the atmosphere. See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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EPA Health Issues: In March, eleven members of Congress who are health care professionals challenged the EPA for its claimed health benefits from its proposed rules on carbon dioxide emissions. Their letter has three major assertions. 1. Unilateral carbon rules will not create domestic health benefits; 2, extraordinary energy costs will diminish public health; and 3, threats to electric reliability will diminish public health. The members call for the EPA to level with the American public on public health and carbon regulations. The letter will be useful for SEPP preparing its comments on EPA incorrectly using public heath as a justification for controlling energy sources and uses. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the March.
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EPA Numbers: The General Accountability Office (GAO) issued a report questioning EPA’s calculation of costs and benefits from seven major rules on air, water, and other environmental issues that were made final between 2009 and 2011. The process is known as Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) and the GAO suggests that the EPA did not follow Office of Management and Budget guidance for the RIA. In the view of critics, the process EPA uses is not transparent, but opaque. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the March.
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EPA Ozone Rules: EPA is considering tightening its rules on ozone, which were adopted in 2008. It is now considering reducing the standards from 75 parts per billion to 60 parts per billion. The old rules are not yet fully implemented, and much of the technology needed to achieve the new standards has not been identified. The EPA asserted that the new rules will have a compliance cost of $90 billion in 2020. A study commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers put it closer to $270 billion.
One can quibble about the numbers, but the direction of the regulations is clear – EPA gaining control over economic growth. Under these rules, most major increases in economic activity, other than in very rural areas will require approval by the EPA. See Article #4.
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EIA Study? The Energy Information Agency (EIA) issued a report that showed little change in coal-generation of electricity through 2040. Natural gas-generation was forecast to grow the most in all sections of the country, renewable-generation to grow appreciably in the west, and nuclear-generation to be flat in all sections. The report explained that hydroelectric generation is dominant in the Pacific Northwest, (which generates power for California). According to the report, other forms of renewables will grow as well.
The report did not explain why the writers expect coal-generation will not fall in face of EPA proposed regulations that require closing of coal-fired plants and other regulations that prevent the construction of new coal-fired plants. However, the referenced source is the Annual Energy Outlook released in May 7, 2014 – before the release of new EPA CO2 regulations. See links under Energy Issues – US and http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/
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Oh’ Mann: Mr. Mann’s litigation against Mr. Steyn et al. is hitting rocks – a friend in court brief in favor of Mr. Steyn was filed by the American Civil Liberties Union and major US media organizations such as Association of American Publishers, Bloomberg, USA Today, Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times. Apparently, these organizations are becoming aware that Mr. Mann brought up major anti-freedom of speech issues in his litigation. Mr. Mann will probably find the going a bit tougher this time than the patronizing investigations by Penn State and government entities that he questionably claims exonerated him. See links under Oh’ Mann.
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Wind Power: Wind power is unreliable, but that is no reason for politicians and governments not to spend money trying to deploy it. One of the latest fads is harnessing high altitude winds. The US National Science Foundation and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency are financing the mapping of high altitude winds in the hopes of harnessing them. The concept of using lighter than air devices, such as balloons, to float wind turbines in the air has been thoroughly shown to be absurd by British engineer John Brignell. Since Defense Threat Reduction Agency is involved, could it be a top-secret antiaircraft program? See link under Below the Bottom Line and http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/cables.htm
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Number of the Week: 15 times. According to an op-ed written by the president of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, in 2012, when implementing the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) the EPA claimed that only 4 gigawatts of capacity of coal-fired plants would be lost. Now, two years later, “U.S. is already facing the loss of 60 gigawatts of power over the next three years, the result of older coal plants’ being forced to shut down because they cannot comply with the EPA’s” standards. The estimate of the loss of electrical generation capacity from this rule alone has grown 15 times in two years. Many of the plants slated to be closed were needed in the extreme cold spell last winter.
The GAO report discussed above does not include this gross underestimate of costs. And some EPA officials wonder why they cannot build trust with many on Capitol Hill? See Article # 3.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Carbon dioxide keeps the Earth green
Editor, Times-Dispatch: By Fred Singer, VA-SEEE, Aug 11, 2014
2. Climate Science Does Not Support IPCC Conclusions
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Aug 15, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/08/climate_science_does_not_support_ipcc_conclusions.html
3. Electrical Workers vs. the EPA
We union members oppose new anticarbon rules that will cost jobs and endanger the grid.
By Edwin Hill, WSJ, Aug 14, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/edwin-hill-the-electrical-workers-union-vs-the-epa-1408057784
4. The EPA’s Latest Threat to Economic Growth
The agency’s needless new ozone standard could cost Americans $270 billion annually.
By Jay Timmons, WSJ, Aug 13, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-epas-latest-threat-to-economic-growth-1407970689
Link to study: Potential Economic Impacts of a Stricter Ozone Standard,
By Staff Writers, NEPA Economic Consulting, July 2014
http://www.nam.org/~/media/29876087653A4D74BFE191551FC024EC.ashx
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
New paper finds multiple solar amplification mechanisms which modulate winter surface temperatures
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Aug 11, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-paper-finds-multiple-solar.html
Link to paper: Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle
By V. Maliniemi, T. Asikainen and K. Mursula, Journal of Geophysical Research, Aug 11, 2014
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021343/abstract
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
It’s an Unsettling Climate for skeptical scientists like Murry Salby
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 14, 2014
Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-9
Inside the Global Warming Skeptics Conference
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Aug 9, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/08/inside_the_global_warming_skeptics_conference.html
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The diminishing influence of increasing Carbon Dioxide on temperature
By Ed Hoskins, WUWT, Aug 10, 2014 [H/t Tom Sheahen]
Have We Lost Our Way?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 15, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/08/15/have-we-lost-our-way/
On Climate Change
By Charles Battig, VA-SEEE, Crozet Gazette, Aug 7, 2014
http://www.crozetgazette.com/2014/08/to-the-editor-on-climate-changes/
All Rain Is Acid Rain
Lack of Data Is The Fundamental Problem
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Aug 15, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/15/all-rain-is-acid-rain/
Climate Change And The Human Condition: Is It Time To Reconsider Climatic Determinism?
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Aug 9, 2014
Earth’s Response to Increasing CO2: An Example of Hormesis?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 11, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/earths-response-to-increasing-co2-an-example-of-hormesis/
Defending the Orthodoxy
A World In Chaos, And Kerry’s Talking Climate Change
Editorial , IBD, Aug, 14, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Don’t believe the hype: 5 reasons to be pessimistic about climate change
As things stand, we are in for a world of hurt
By Neil Ehatiya, The Week, No Date [H/t Charles Shafer]
Unfortunately, owing to two centuries of industrialization, there is already a lot of damage built into the climate system, and we are already seeing the ways in which climate stress is affecting human security.
[SEPP Comment: The Policy Associate at The Century Foundations would prefer to have lived in an era when life was nasty, brutish, and short?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Saving the Planet, One Denier at a Time
By Bruce Bialosky, Townhall, Aug 10, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Climate Polling Results Lead to Weird Press Coverage
By Roy Spencer, His blog, Aug 13, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/climate-polling-results-lead-to-weird-press-coverage/
Reading climate articles backwards
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Aug 12, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/8/12/reading-climate-articles-backwards.html
‘“Climate-smart” policies for Africa are stupid, and immoral – OPED
By Paul Driessen, Eurasia Review, Aug 11, 2014
http://www.eurasiareview.com/11082014-climate-smart-policies-africa-stupid-immoral-oped/
Reasons to be cheerful
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Aug 15, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/reasons-to-be-cheerful-(1).aspx
RC: 20 million Russian black holes needed for methane emergency
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Aug 14, 2014
http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/08/rc-20-million-russian-black-holes.html#more
WAPO – ‘Has the era of the climate change refugee begun?’
By Barry Brill, WUWT, Aug 12, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/12/wapo-has-the-era-of-the-climate-change-refugee-begun/
Social Benefits of Carbon
Plants have unexpected response to climate change
By Jennifer Balmer, Science, Aug 8, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/08/plants-have-unexpected-response-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: The Science magazine cannot possibly admit that this shift to lower elevations may be from the benefits of increased CO2.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Few Other Countries Are Following The Obama Administration’s Lead On Climate
By Andrew Powalena, Daily Caller, Aug 11, 2014
Why the Global Climate Treaty is Doomed
By Walter Russell Mead & Staff, American Interest, Aug 13, 2014
http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/08/13/why-the-global-climate-treaty-is-doomed/
[SEPP Comment: According to the authors: The West’s industrialization is largely responsible for the emissions that have gotten us to where we are now, while the developing world’s intent to follow suit represents the bigger future threat. And where are we? We are no longer in the Little Ice Age. If the increase in temperatures was the result of industrialization, then we all should be thankful. What is called voluntary efforts to reduce emissions may actually be efforts to reduce emissions per MW of electricity produced through increasing efficiency by building many more coal-fired plants resulting in a net increase of emissions.]
Seeking a Common Ground
A World In Chaos, And Kerry’s Talking Climate Change
Editorial , IBD, Aug, 14, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Would not the attitude that we should take no policy action unless we have compelling evidence be a different form of precaution? After all, government is demanding authoritarian control of energy, thus economic well-being.]
How deep ocean warming can “bypass the surface”
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/how-deep-ocean-warming-can-bypass-the-surface/
Microbes, rain, and climate
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 14, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/14/microbes-rain-and-climate/
Reconciling Seemingly Contradictory Climate Claims
By Staff Writer, Coyote Blog, Jul 28, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Good explanation of why we can get seemingly contrary claims about temperature trends.]
The debate about climate change takes a new form. One familiar yet disturbing.
By Editor, Fabius Maximus, Aug 8, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://fabiusmaximus.com/2014/08/08/climate-change-fear-ipcc-debate-70593/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Woody Plant Encroachment on the USA’s Southwestern Desert
Reference: Brunelle, A., Minckley, T.A., Delgadillo, J. and Blissett, S. 2014. A long-term perspective on woody plant encroachment in the desert southwest, New Mexico, USA. Journal of Vegetation Science 25: 829-838.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/aug/12aug2014a1.html
A 3,000-Year Record of Solar Activity
Reference: Usoskin, I.G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G.A., Thebault, E. and Khokhlov, A. 2014. Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity. Astronomy and Astrophysics 562: L10, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423391.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/aug/12aug2014a2.html
The Likely Fate of Sea Stars in an Acidifying and Warming Ocean
Reference: Nguyen, H.D. and Byrne, M. 2014. Early benthic juvenile Parvulastra exigua (Asteroidea) are tolerant to extreme acidification and warming in its intertidal habitat. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 453: 36-42.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/aug/12aug2014a3.html
CMIP5 Climate Model Biases (
Reference: Wang, C., Zhang, L., Lee, S.-K., Wu, L. and Mechoso, C.R. 2014. A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases. Nature Climate Change 4: 201-205.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/aug/12aug2014a4.html
Models v. Observations
A global temperature conundrum: Cooling or warming climate?
By Staff Writers, Madison WI (SPX), Aug 12, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/A_global_temperature_conundrum_Cooling_or_warming_climate_999.html
Climate conundrum: Conflicting indicators on what preceded human-driven warming
By Kelly April Tyrell, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, News, Aug 11, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.news.wisc.edu/23050
Link to paper: The Holocene temperature conundrum
By Zhengyu Liu, et al. PNAS, Aug 11, 2014
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/07/1407229111
The study was supported by grants from the (U.S.) National Science Foundation, the Chinese National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.
A Clear Example of IPCC Ideology Trumping Fact
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, Aug 14, 2014
http://www.cato.org/blog/clear-example-ipcc-ideology-trumping-fact
Meteorologists Sharply Criticize DWD German Weather Service… “The Science Is Groping In The Dark”
By P Gossselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 9, 2014
Measurement Issues
Snow has thinned on Arctic sea ice
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 13, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/13/snow-has-thinned-on-arctic-sea-ice/
Changing Weather
Normalized US Hurricane Losses 1900-2013
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Aug 13, 2014
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/08/normalized-us-hurricane-losses-1900-2013.html
[SEPP Comment: Hurricanes have not become more frequent or intense, regardless of what John Holdren, the President’s science advisor, says.]
Insured losses from natural disasters down in 2014
By Stephen Durham, Captive Insurance Times, Jul 25, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.captiveinsurancetimes.com/captiveinsurancenews/article.php?article_id=3541#.U-p95fldV-5
[SEPP Comment: Hurricane season can make generalizing from semi-annual data foolish.]
Recent Hawaiian Tropical Cyclones – Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Storm Tracks
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Aug 13, 2014
El Nino Fizzle or Sizzle
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Aug 15, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/El_Nino_Fizzle_or_Sizzle_999.html
Changing Climate
Climate relicts may help researchers understand climate change
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140812163719.htm
Link to paper: Climate relicts and their associated communities as natural ecology and evolution laboratories.
By Scott Woolbright, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, July 2014
We’re Ill-Prepared for Global Cooling
By Maurice Newman, The Australian, Via GWPF, Aug 14, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/maurice-newman-were-ill-prepared-for-global-cooling/
Changing Seas
Claim: Sea-level spikes can harm beaches worse than hurricane
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 12, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/12/claim-sea-level-spikes-can-harm-beaches-worse-than-hurricane/
Link to paper: Sea-level spikes can harm beaches worse than hurricane
By Alexandra Branscombe, AGU Blog, Aug 5, 2014
[SEPP Comment: As if storm surges never existed before. The barrier islands are known to be constantly shifting.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
2010 Chilean earthquake causes icequakes in Antarctica
By Staff Writers, Atlanta GA (SPX), Aug 12, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/2010_Chilean_earthquake_causes_icequakes_in_Antarctica_999.html
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Trapped atmospheric waves triggered more weather extremes
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Aug 12, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Trapped_atmospheric_waves_triggered_more_weather_extremes_999.html
Link to paper: Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer
By Dim Coumou, PNAS, Aug 6, 2014
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/06/1412797111.abstract
Global warming is moistening the atmosphere
Human-caused global warming is causing the upper troposphere to become wetter
By John Abraham and Dana Nuccitelli, Guardian, UK, Aug 13, 2014
Link to paper: Upper-tropospheric moistening in response to anthropogenic warming
By Eui-Seok Chunga, et al. PNAS, Jul 28, 2014
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/07/23/1409659111.abstract
[SEPP Comment: More from the falsely claimed 97% — using models to confirm models. Since the models cannot reliability predict temperature trends, there is no logical reason to assume they can be used to “confirm” other climate parameters.]
Glacier loss of plot
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Aug 15, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/8/15/glacier-loss-of-plot.html
Link to paper: Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes
By Ben Marzeion, et al. Science, Aug 14, 2014
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/08/13/science.1254702
[SEPP Comment: Exposing faulty logic that passes for science in Science magazine.]
Antarctica could raise sea level faster than previously thought
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany, (SPX) Aug 15, 2014
Link to paper: Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models
By A. Levermann, et al. Earth System Dynamics, Metrics expected on Aug 17, 2014
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/271/2014/esd-5-271-2014.html
[SEPP Comment: Again based on questionable models.]
Lowering Standards
Bad day and black dog
By John Brignell, Number Watch, Aug 13, 2014
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2014%20August.htm#bad
[SEPP Comment: Brignell devoted much of his professional life to the University of Southampton and the Institute of Physics and finds that the academic standards of both are becoming deplorable.]
Southampton University: We need an air travel regulator with “Teeth”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 12, 2014
Link to paper: Direct carbon dioxide emissions from civil aircraft
By Grote, Williams & Preston, Science Direct, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231014004889
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Be afraid! Trapped atmospheric waves on the rise. Extreme heatwaves to come.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 14, 2014
How the media distort the news: Lesson 1 — Lies by omission
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 14, 2014
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/how-the-media-distort-the-news-lesson-1-lies-by-omission/
Liberal Media Love Flawed Studies Claiming a Vast Scientific Consensus on Climate
By Julia A. Semour, NewsBusters, Aug 13, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Climate Change Now Has A Logo
By Laura Dattaro, Weather.com, Aug 9, 2014
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/climate-change-now-has-logo-20140809
It’s Not Warming: The Global Warming Movement is Dying
By Jim Lakely, Somewhat Reasonable, Aug 12, 2014
http://blog.heartland.org/2014/08/its-not-warming-the-global-warming-movement-is-dying/
[SEPP Comment: Having fun with the new logo.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Spotting policy-based evidence making
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Aug 13, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/8/13/spotting-policy-based-evidencemaking.html
Maria Eagle is talking nonsense about floods and climate change
By Andrew Montford, Spectator, Aug 11, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Exposing unsubstantiated assertions.]
When Did Republicans Start Hating the Environment?
Roughly 1991, according to a new study
By Chris Mooney, Mother Jones, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/08/republicans-environment-hate-polarization
[SEPP Comment: It is not hating the environment, but opposing the regulations of the agencies that have exceeded their scientific knowledge and their power.]
Global Warming: The Incompetent Politician’s Excuse?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 13, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/13/global-warming-the-incompetent-politicians-excuse/
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Carter: ‘Nutcases’ are stopping climate action
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Aug 8, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/215027-carter-nutcases-are-stopping-climate-action
[SEPP Comment: The former president sees “ravages of global warming,” which is no longer occurring.]
It’s an Unsettling Climate for skeptical scientists like Murry Salby
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 14, 2014
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
New York Common Core Test Quizzes Kids On Global Warming
By Blake Neff, Daily Caller, Aug 8, 2014 [H/t Tom Sheahen]
http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/08/new-york-common-core-test-quizzes-kids-on-global-warming/
Questioning European Green
EU green energy laws ‘put 1.5m UK manufacturing jobs at risk’
Eurosceptic group blames Brussels for up to 9pc of costs on manufacturers’ energy bills
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Aug 13, 2014
EXCLUSIVE: Millions of families to face soaring energy bills
FAMILIES are facing another round of big energy price rises, experts warned last night
By Nathan Rao, Express, UK, Aug 6, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/496037/Millions-face-rise-cost-energy
Funding Issues
Billionaire’s Club Funds EPA’s Fossil Fuel War
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Aug 11, 2014
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/epa-fuel-green/2014/08/11/id/587985/
Big money flowing in Va. Politics
By Charles Battig, VA-SEEE, Daily Progress, Aug 15, 2014
The Political Games Continue
Democrats Embracing Shale Boom Ahead of Midterms
By Walter Russell Mead & Staff, American Interest, Aug 12, 2014
Democrates risk Blue-Collar Rebellion
By Joel Kotkin New Geography, Aug 4, 2014
http://www.newgeography.com/content/004455-democrats-risk-blue-collar-rebellion
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Mayors Group Scraps Cap-and-Trade Support
The U.S. Conference of Mayors has launched a new campaign to save energy and cut down on air pollution. But, due to GOP opposition, they’re no longer urging Congress to pass cap and trade.
By J.B. Wogan, Governing, Jul 8, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
IRS guidance relaxes renewable energy tax credit
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Aug 11, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/214823-irs-guidance-relaxes-renewable-energy-tax-credit
[SEPP Comment: 3% of the work of a significant nature by the end of 2014 to qualify for tax credit program that supposedly ended in 2013?]
Promoting Parasitic Power Producers
By Viv Forbes, Carbon-Sense, AU, Aug 15, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/parasitic-power-producers.html
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Congressional Doctors Warn EPA’s CO2 Rule Threatens Public Health
By Megan Tooms, Cornwall Alliance, Aug 13, 2014 [H/t ICECAP]
http://us8.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8fe89cf100dfd0bf13664d610&id=2b9b306883&e=2a0391add7
Link to letter from health care professionals who are Member of Congress, March 11, 2014
http://energyfairness.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Doctors-Caucus-Letter.pdf
GAO: EPA Used 20-Year-Old Jobs Data To Justify Regulations
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Aug 12, 2014
http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/12/gao-epa-used-20-year-old-jobs-data-to-justify-regulations/2/
GAO faults cost analyses for EPA regulations
By Benjamin Goad, The Hill, Aug 11, 2014
http://thehill.com/regulation/214878-gao-faults-cost-analyses-for-epa-rules
Link to report:
EPA Should Improve Adherence to Guidance for Selected Elements of Regulatory Impact Analyses
By Staff Writers, GAO, July 2014
http://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GAOreport.pdf
EPA must explain the costs of its rules better, federal watchdog says
Bu Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Aug 11, 2014
House Republican to EPA: Double-check numbers on climate rule cost
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Aug 13, 2014
[SEPP Comment: See links immediately above on the GAO report.]
How the EPA ignores the public and science
By Tom Harris, New York Post, Aug 10, 2014
http://nypost.com/2014/08/10/how-the-epa-ignores-the-public-and-science/
ITSSD responds to EPA’s power plant rule
By Jonathan Rowland, World Coal, Aug 15, 2014
Link to submission:To EPA, By ITSSD, Aug 13, 2014
Legal Expert: EPA’s CO2 Rule Violates Federal Data Quality Law
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Aug 14, 2014
http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/14/legal-expert-epas-co2-rule-violates-federal-data-quality-law/
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
The EPA’s Shoddy Math
The Agency’s cost-benefit reports for new regs just don’t add up.
By Jillian Kay Melchior, National Review, Aug 14, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/385365/epas-shoddy-math-jillian-kay-melchior
[SEPP Comment: The propaganda photo of dark blowing stacks of condensing water vapor undermines the rational arguments made by the author.]
EPA power-plant rule: comments close October 16
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Aug 9, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/09/epa-power-plant-rule-comments-close-october-16/
Declare a Ceasefire in EPA’s War on Coal
By William F. Shughart II, American Thinker, Aug 11, 2014
http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/08/declare_a_ceasefire_in_epas_war_on_coal.html
EPA moving forward with long-delayed rules to protect fish
By Tim Devaney, The Hill, Aug 14, 2014
http://thehill.com/regulation/215137-epa-moving-forward-with-long-delayed-rules-to-protect-fish
Link to new rules: National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System—Final Regulations to Establish Requirements for Cooling Water Intake Structures at Existing Facilities and Amend
Requirements at Phase I Facilities
https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2014-12164.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Under the Clean Water Act. A three month delay is hardly long-delayed.]
EPA extends comment period on oil refinery regulations
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Aug 14, 2014
If it’s wet, EPA wants to regulate it
By Ron Arnold, Washington Examiner, Aug 12, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Wet leaves can qualify as “waters of the United States.”]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Oil Nationalism Seen Reversing by IEA Amid Shale Boom
By Grant Smith, Bloomberg, Aug 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-14/oil-nationalism-seen-reversing-by-iea-amid-shale-boom.html
Short-sighted political populism risks missing shale gas’s potential benefits
By Benny Peiser and Daniel Mahoney, City A.M. Aug 15, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
China’s Shale Gas Bust
China is betting long-term on unconventional gas, but it is running into problems developing its vast shale resources.
By Mike Orcuff, MIT Technology Review, Aug 12, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529996/chinas-shale-gas-bust/
China outstrips Germany to become world’s biggest solar market
By Staff Writers, Beijing (SPX), Aug 12, 2014
U.S. Anti-coal Dominoes Hit BRICS Wall, Other Skeptics
By Anna Yukhananov and Valerie Volcovici, Reuters, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-anti-coal-dominoes-hit-brics-wall-other-skeptics-2014-12
European Industry Stagnates as Americans Prosper with Fracking
By David Biederman, The Objective Standard, Aug 8, 2014
http://www.theobjectivestandard.com/2014/08/european-industry-stagnates-americans-prosper-fracking/
[SEPP Comment: According to the author, the demise of the chemical industry in Europe is not so much due to the shale boom in the US, but the failure of the EU to allow the development of similar resources in the EU.]
Energy Issues — US
Coal country forecast to see largest natural gas increases
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Aug 15, 2014
Link to report: Reasons for projected natural gas-fired generation growth vary by region
By Mike Ford, et al. EIA, Aug 15, 2014
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17571
Washington’s Control of Energy
Do Greens Oppose Keystone XL Because It Would Increase Gas Prices or Lower Them? Yes!
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warmng.org, Aug 14, 2014
Keystone, The Magic Pipeline
Oh goody—dueling studies about the Keystone pipeline! Wonk heaven.
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Aug 11, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/08/keystone-the-magic-pipeline.php
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Another US energy milestone: US was the world’s largest petroleum producer in April for the 18th straight month
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Aug 13, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Biosphere reserve for Chernobyl
By Staff Writers, WNN, Aug 7, 2014
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE-Biosphere-reserve-for-Chernobyl-0708201401.html
Crunch time for the EU
By Stephen Tarlton, WNN, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/F-Crunch-time-for-the-EU-1208141.html
Don’t mention the Nuclear Option to Greens
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 9, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/09/dont-mention-the-nuclear-option-to-greens/
EDF Energy says shuts down nuclear reactors in Britain
By Staff Writers, London (AFP), Aug 11, 2014
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Why Wind Energy is a Bad Idea
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 12, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/08/12/why-wind-energy-is-a-bad-idea/
Wind farm ‘needs 700 times more land’ than fracking site to produce same energy
Shale gas site ‘creates the least visual intrusion’ compared with wind or solar farm for same energy, according to Government’s former chief scientific advisor on energy
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Aug 14, 2014
Link to study: Shale gas in perspective
By David MacKay, Sustainable Energy – without the hot air
http://withouthotair.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/shale-gas-in-perspective.html
Carbon Schemes
Carbon dioxide ‘sponge’ could ease transition to cleaner energy
By Staff Writers, San Francisco CA (SPX), Aug 13, 2014
Halifax firm reusing CO2 to make stronger, greener concrete blocks
“Small but feisty” firm working on new concrete blocks that could actually absorb CO2 from the environment
By David Nesseth , Clean Tech Canada, Aug 8, 2014 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/sustainability/halifax-company-reusing-co2-139527/
[SEPP Comment: All the glorifying adjectives in the world will not make a measurable difference in temperature trends.]
Oh Mann!
ACLU, news organizations back National Review, think tank in climate libel case
By Sean Higgins, Washington Examiner, Aug 13, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Will Mr. Mann’s legal action be considered a nuisance?]
ACLU and National Media Intervene in Mann v Steyn et al
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Aug 13, 2014
http://climateaudit.org/2014/08/13/aclu-and-national-media-intervene-in-mann-v-steyn-et-al/
Global Warming Alarmist Sues Think Tank for Disputing his “Facts”
By Bya Shapiro, Townhall, Aug 13, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Environmental Industry
Big Green Hypocrites
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Aug 9, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/08/big-green-hypocrites/
Green group looks to ‘rebuild trust’ with GOP
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Aug 15, 2014
[SEPP Comment: We have been engaged in a decades-long campaign demonizing fossil-fuels, which will destroy jobs and make the poor poorer. Why don’t you trust us?]
The hidden persuaders of the environmental elite
By Ron Arnold, Washington Examiner, Aug 5, 2014
http://washingtonexaminer.com/the-hidden-persuaders-of-the-environmental-elite/article/2551714
Other Scientific News
Extreme space weather threatens to leave the U.S. in the dark
Editorial, Washington Post, Aug 9, 2014 [H/t William Readdy]
Link to Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012, By Tony Phillips NASA, Jul 23, 2014
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/
Other News that May Be of Interest
Our sincerest condolences to Dr. John Christy and his family – Alice “Babs” Christy
From the Huntsville Times Obituary Page, WUWT, Aug 11, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/our-sincerest-condolences-to-dr-john-christy-and-his-family/
Reasons to be fearful about Ebola
This epidemic is not under control
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Aug 12, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/reasons-to-be-fearful-about-ebola.aspx
Airports plant prairie grass to prevent bird strikes
By Brooks Hays, Dayton, Ohio (UPI), Aug 12, 2013
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Airports_plant_prairie_grass_to_prevent_bird_strikes_999.html
Could renewable energy make rural electrification a reality?
Cheap solar, wind or hydroelectricity accessed through mini-grids could light up remote villages. So what’s the problem?
By Frederika Whitehead, Guardian Professional, Aug 6, 2014 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: Why omit fossil fuels? Because they often cost less?]
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
A Mother Load of Wind Power
Mapping the potential to harvest high-altitude wind
B David Hosansky, NCAR & UCAR Communications, May 28, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/in-brief/11670/mother-lode-wind-power
Berlin Orchestra Now Donning Rubber Boots To Elevate Awareness Of Dangerous Climate Change
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 14, 2014
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Disappearing in the Deep? On his web site, Roy Spencer gives a plausible explanation of how the deep ocean can warm, without an observable surface warming. This explanation is useful. But, it does not explain how a CO2 warming, which occurs in the atmosphere, can disappear into the deep oceans without being observed in the atmosphere. See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
How about geothermal heat flux through that 1/2 mile paper thin ocean floor crust.
The anti-human Climate Change Team must be rooting for the Ebola virus against the humans.
I always enjoy the roundup.
One mechanism for warming and cooling in my opinion is the earth’s magnetic field strength. It has beeen steadily decreasing for thousands of years which theoretically allows more cosmic rays into the upper atmospere. This would be espcially prounounced during solar minimums and nearby super novae. Anyone care to shoot holes in this idea? It was just a thought I have been toying with.
“The alarmists, and their models, predict net positive feedbacks. ”
Incorrect.No one suggests “net positive” feedbacks the system would be fundamentally unstable.
Some suggest that there are _minor_ positive feedbacks which make the net feedback less negative, ie more sensitive to changes in forcings, thus a bit less stable.
Greg, the IPCC forecast for future warming was more than twice as great with feedbacks than it was for just the warming from CO2 alone. In fact, just the water vapor feedback roughly doubles the expected amount of warming caused by CO2. So how can you say that the feedbacks predicted by alarmists and their models are net negative? If negative, the predicted warming would amount to less than that predicted for CO2 alone. To be clear, I think feedbacks are net negative, but alarmists certainly don’t think so. As for positive feedbacks causing the system to be “unstable,” isn’t that why they insisted that “runaway” global warming will occur if we don’t act soon?
Louis is quite right. The use of the Precautionary Principle requires that the impact be dangerous and irreversible. Otherwise we can just wait for the evidence to come in (The Cautionary Principle).
If the feedbacks are net negative then the impact cannot be expected to be irreversible.
Therefore, the feedbacks predicted by alarmists and their models are net positive for all models that are consistent with the use of the Precautionary Principle.
And that is for all models that have been used in policy making
About observation and physical models not matching, it’s not a conundrum, and it’s not a difficult problem. CO2 doesn’t drive climate. End of story, end of conundrum, end of difficulty.
I will never understand why the obvious so easily eludes “climate scientists”, while they’re busy attempting to complexify even the simplest things.
Re: “Number of the Week”
In one medium sized state alone, I know of over 1 GW of coal generation that is being retired or converted to gas. 1 GW for the entire country? Hogwash!
Pardon, should have said 4 GW for the entire country.
“… He asks which is right the physical observations or the models?
He has to ask?
Poor guy doesn’t know his favorite, cherished, adorable little theory of anthropogenic catastrophe has been falsified. He doesn’t realize it.
Poor guy.
Just checked EIA. 336 GW of coal power currently installed out of 1,168 GW from all sources. BTW, coal is not the only source of power generation CO2, just the political/environmental whipping boy.