From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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There is a huge difference from a lightning strike and a carrington event, with lightning, current comes from outside and enters, with a carrington event currents build up inside, anything with copper wire will experience current build up, although obviously not as much as when connected to the grid.
This has helped, albeit momentarily, to take my mind off of the imminent deep-frying of the earth due to superfragilisticexpialacatastrophic global warming.
The crazy thing is that the US could prevent almost all damage to its electrical grid by spending just $2 billion (about 4 hours of federal spending) on hardening the grid and implementing an automatic system that would shutdown the grid prior to an EMP hitting Earth….
But. NoooOOOooo. political hacks would ironically rather flush $trillions down toilet on CO2 rules, regs, alt-en subsidies, alt-en mega-projects, etc., to “prevent” a CAGW crisis that’ll never happen.
The world has gone insane.
For independent events, probability doesn’t work that way. If there’s a 150 year cycle in such things, then we’d have to see an immense increase in the numbers of CMEs to get one that manages to find Earth.
BTW, we’re not due for a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption either, despite what various people say. There could well be several significant eruptions before the Big One….
Louis says:
August 1, 2014 at 1:38 pm
My take on things:
> Would a surge protector do any good in such an event?
Home equipment should be unaffected, the length of the wires from device to your transformer on the pole is too short to have much current impressed on it by the magnetic storm.
> Would electrical devices that are turned off or unplugged still be harmed?
Ditto
> Would it affect portable devices, such as phones or tablets?
No. Cell phones would do okay until their backup generators run out of fuel.
The things to worry about are long transmission lines, especially those with ground loops. I haven’t read a good description of just how things go wrong, there are either high DC currents that saturate the iron core and it cease to behave like a transformer or counter wound windings that cancel out the magnetic field but let the DC current through. Either way, the high current fries the windings and you need a new, probably custom built transformer that may only be made in China.
See http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2010/10/26/transformerdamage.jpg from http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/
Altogether too many people:
> EMP
We’re talking geomagnetic storm with magnetic “field lines” (think bar magnet and iron filings) sweeping across long wires (transmission lines). EMP is “ElectroMagnetic Pulse.” Those from atomic bombs and whatnot come from gamma rays from the explosion radiating outward and colliding with electrons in air molecules. Those get pushed forward from their nucleus and you wind up with a very narrow, very strong electric field radiating out at the speed of light. That can fry handheld electronics just fine and also much larger things.
Smaller EMPs come from lightning, motors with brushes, spark plugs, etc. and you can hear them on AM radios. Broadband impulsive signals, that’s not what a CME brings.
I dont know if I believe the hype around Carrington solar storms. Predictions of disasters usually are gravely exaggerated, remember the year 2000 computer crash, ozon death, silent spring, death from algea, death from asteroids, death from global warming etc etc.
I dont think it will be a huge problem, annoying yes, devastating no.
Beats an imprecision IPCC-guided crap bomb for damage.
One destroys civilization and the other just annoys the hell out of it.
If you are really worried about it, there should be some bunkers for sale from the Mayan calendar doomsday peppers. 😉
and everybody is not buying guns anymore… Ruger & Smith & Wesson stock is tanking.
To those who feel this is overblown and no real problem as we can just unplug (in theory), I just wanted to point out that 90 to 95% of people won’t.
It’s going to be an issue.
j ferguson says:
August 1, 2014 at 1:54 pm
my imagination may have run away with me on this one – go ahead, straighten me out, but…
I had the impression that a Carrington Event with the enthusiasm of the one in 1859 might fry Integrated Circuits unprotected by Faraday cages. This could mean no transportation by recent automobiles, no transport by current trucks (computer controlled diesel engines), no standby electricity (computer control diesel, again), problematic communication, possible total breakdown of supply chains of everything from water to food. And it could take a long time to get rolling again.
—
It’s valid to take a pessimistic jaunt regarding such a possibility, in my view j. The following pdf link report covers the numerous major vulnerabilites and primary and secondary (not to mention unforeseen) implications of such events (but from a WMD EMP perspective, for the most part) and in sobering (OK, horrific) detail.
It provides a good shake out of complacency, and if it turns out to be overblown, good. But no one claiming it’s been overblown actually knows that it’s overstated, and we have some pretty good indications that it isn’t.
http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
Maybe we’re just disaster scenario overloaded this century. WMD wasn’t there, 2012 end of the world didn’t happen, we’re not in FEMA camps and SpaghettiO didn’t take our guns away, etc…
GuarionexSandoval says:
August 1, 2014 at 2:37 pm
Thanks for that – a very interesting paper.
GregL says:
August 1, 2014 at 2:08 pm
In the case of an extreme event pushing 1500-1600 km/sec, the warning time would be only a day.
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Less in practice in that case, Greg, as most regular people including ‘decision makers’ spend half the day incommunicado, asleep, on the potty, it traffic and other fun stuff.
Then when they do find it out from the Box or the hyper-chatter networks they’ll spend the next 6 hours (if they’re even interested, and most won’t be) trying to assess the info-noise being rapid-fire flung at them.
I’m guessing but most will go ho-hum and make a cup of coffee and take the dog out for a poop. Human habit and character being what it is (anthropocentric uniformitarianism).
Ric Werme says:
August 1, 2014 at 7:14 pm
Altogether too many people:
Smaller EMPs come from lightning, motors with brushes, spark plugs, etc. and you can hear them on AM radios. Broadband impulsive signals, that’s not what a CME brings.
—
You’re oversimpifying Ric, there are three major categories of EMP, E1, E2, E3 events, and they are all different in their mechanism.
In the case of a global severe storm envelopment this would equate to a major E3 “heave” event, but global, not just regional as with the case of a point-sourced nuclear E3 heave. And that most certainly could be globally crippling. For instance an E3 created in a 1962 Russian test of the concept as a weapon caused an underground high tension power line, buried 1,200 mm deep and situated around 1,500 km geographically from the E3 point-source, to scorch and melt and its juction boxes to explode and burst into flames.
See the pdf I’ve linked above regarding long-duration E3s. A CME will bring EMP effects, just not the prompt E1 and E2 effect, but a strong sustained global E3 would probably be worse anyway as time of exposure matters a lot with induced resistance heating. That’s what will do the damage, the duration of exposure to a strong E3 and the ability to dissipate the heat in metallic conductors.
M Simon says:
August 1, 2014 at 2:23 pm
EMP is directional. Which means that if devices are oriented at random some where between 1/3rd and 2/3rds of all unshielded devices will be damaged.
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It’s effect also varies with latitude – mid latitudes get hit hardest.
C’mon, DO YOU THINK, you will be typing here after such an event?
Perspective is important……..
Just sayin, who would know until after your network dependent digital and satellite based stuff doesn’t work?
Think about it. …..
There’s lots of foolishness surrounding CMEs. While the induced fields can cause harmful currents in power and telecom lines, anything without a huge antenna will see little effect. Automotive control systems and cellphones, in particular, are designed with thousands of volts of surge protection because they have to tolerate static discharges in everyday operation.
Someone quoted the Daily Express: “The warning comes as Britain is experiencing one of the hottest summers on record.” Hype as usual, but it’s certainly been very pleasant, being the 6th hottest June+July (using CET max) in the last 40 years, beaten by 2006, 2003, 1989, 1983, 1976.
July (23.0) has been much hotter than June (19.9), but only the 8th hottest July in the last 40 years, and not as hot as last year’s!
Statisticians don’t usually get excited until something is less than a 1 in 20 event, so 6th or 8th in 40 doesn’t cut it. And the daily CET hasn’t touched 30 degrees since 2006 (27.8 max so far this year).
Still, I’ve really enjoyed the warm weather, and next week I’m heading south to France to find some more!
Rich.
— Björn from Sweden says:
August 1, 2014 at 8:31 pm
I dont know if I believe the hype around Carrington solar storms. Predictions of disasters usually are gravely exaggerated, remember the year 2000 computer crash, ozon death, silent spring, death from algea, death from asteroids, death from global warming etc etc.
I dont think it will be a huge problem, annoying yes, devastating no.–
It’s estimated that it could cause 2 trillion dollars [globally] in damage.
So it is more annoying rather than an existential threat. Or 2 trillion dollars of
damage per century is less than hurricane damage per century.
Or roughly one talking about something which is as disruptive as the 911 event.
And panics might be more of a problem than anything else. Or getting the news out
minutes before the event, so people have idea of what is happening, could lessen the effect.
And couple this alert message, with emergency training which includes what to specifically do after such an event, could another part of what can be done.
Lab for Solar and Space Physics, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center:
There is strong evidence of electromagnetic processes responsible for earthquake triggering.
It may be just a coincidence but there was above average geomagnetic storm on the eve of the Japan’s devastating quake (March 2011)
Here you can see what that EMP looked like, I suspect Carrington type event would be an order of magnitude more powerful.
Nowadays lots of computer data is stored in “the Cloud.” Would that be safe?
I am astonished at the complacency shown by many commentators here.This from the UK Govt in 2012 which looked at Carrington and terrorist Electro magnetic disturbances
“Responsibility in Government
15. We are very concerned that there appears to be no one Government Department identified to take immediate lead responsibility should there be a severe space weather event. It is not good enough to say that that will depend on where the greatest impact fell. We support and reiterate the recommendation of the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee that the Government must urgently identify the Lead Government Department for space weather events as a matter of priority. We expect the National Security Council to play a major role in this. (Paragraph 92)
Conclusion
16. The consequences of EMP events must be addressed specifically: generic civil contingency plans which address blackouts and temporary loss of electronic infrastructure caused by a range of events are not sufficient. Space weather is a global threat and may affect many regions and countries simultaneously. This means that there is scope for mutual assistance, but also that there is no safe place from which it can be assumed that help will come. It is time that the Government began to approach this matter with the seriousness it deserves. (Paragraph 97) ”
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmdfence/1925/192504.htm
As a result the UK Govt set up an integrated Govt committee with funding. The Met office has been tasked with examining the forecasting of electro magnetic space events. Out of curiosity a couple of years ago I contacted several infrastructure related companies-electric, fuel and banking and they either knew nothing of these events or just relied on the ‘robustness’ of their equipment without knowing if they could cope.
This from the Royal Academy of Engineering in February 2013
http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/space-weather-full-report
It highlights the likely vulnerabilities and expresses confidence that much of the UK’s cellular network would mostly function, but expressed concerns over the US cellular system which has evolved differently
This is not something that MAY build up over decades like AGW. IF an EMP event occurred there would be very little warning and it would severely impact on the electronic infrastructure which basically means everything, what with the pervasive nature of the internet. There is no cause to become alarmists but to me this type of sudden event-whether man made or natural-is of a far greater concern than AGW.
tonyb
Earth super storms are more frequent, more devastating and more deadly. Last year Typhoon Haiyan killed over 6,000 people in the Philippines and completely destroyed Tacloban City (population 220,000). The country is hit by 20 storms on average every year. Solar super storm once every 150 years. Yes we should prepare for that too.
It would be unwise to rely on the ACE-spacecraft’s final warning. Its orbit (L1) is shown here: http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/681567main_lagrange-points-ace-orig_full.jpg
Its electronics may be damaged some time before the strongest EMP hits it, but even it survives the early shocks, it is doubtful that anything will be detected, processed and transmitted relating to the main impact, since its circuitry may be instantly damaged.