EPA document supports ~3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources

NOTE: this post has an error, see update below. – Anthony

From a Wry Heat reprinted with permission of Jonathan DuHamel

A new post on The Hockey Schtick reviews a new paper “that finds only about 3.75% [15 ppm] of the CO2 in the lower atmosphere is man-made from the burning of fossil fuels, and thus, the vast remainder of the 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 is from land-use changes and natural sources such as ocean outgassing and plant respiration.”

This new work supports an old table from the Energy Information Administration which shows the same thing: only about 3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources.  The numbers are from IPCC data. 

Look at the table and do the arithmetic: 23,100/793,100 = 0.029.

URL for table: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/archive/gg04rpt/pdf/tbl3.pdf

EPA_Table3pct

If one wanted to make fun of the alleged consensus of “climate scientists”, one could say that 97% of carbon dioxide molecules agree that global warming results from natural causes.

===============================================================

UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who pointed out the difference in the chart and the issues.

I was offered this post by the author in WUWT Tips and Notes, here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/tips-and-notes/#comment-1696307 and reproduced below.

The chart refers to the annual increase in CO2, not the total amount. So it is misleading.

Since the original author had worked for the Tucson Citizen I made the mistake of assuming it was properly vetted.

The fault is mine for not checking further. But as “pokerguy” notes, it won’t disappear. Mistakes are just as valuable for learning. – Anthony Watts

wryheat2 says:

July 28, 2014 at 12:28 pm

Mr. Watts,

John Droz suggested I contact you.

On my blog, I commented on the reasearch by Denica Bozhinova on CO2 content due to fossil fuel burining. She apparently scared The Hockey Schtick into taking down his post on the matter. However, there is an older table from EIA which I reproduce on my post.

Denica Bozhinova has commented extensively, and frankly, I can’t understand her position since she seems to contradict what she wrote in the abstract to “Simulating the integrated summertime Ä14CO2 signature from anthropogenic emissions over Western Europe”

See my post here (you may reprint it if you wish):

http://wryheat.wordpress.com/2014/07/19/only-about-3-of-co2-in-atmosphere-due-to-burning-fossil-fuels/

Jonathan DuHamel

Tucson, AZ

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GeeJam
July 29, 2014 3:11 am

Alan Robertson says:
July 29, 2014 at 2:47 am
“You dropped a digit… 120 ppm is more recognized figure”.
I’m puzzled. If (as you say) anthropogenic CO2 is 120 ppm, that’s over a quarter of all the total CO2 in the air. Thanks, but I’ll stick with the original figures. About 96.775% of all CO2 is naturally occuring. This leaves 3.225% man-made. I do not know where you got your 120 ppm from.

CodeTech
July 29, 2014 3:13 am

WUWT doesn’t “disappear” posts, and shouldn’t.
There is a nearly infinite capacity for the biosphere to absorb ANY conceivable amount of CO2 that human activity could possibly release. It’s automatic. The naive and, frankly, obtuse belief that there is some sort of “limit” on this is just ridiculous and bizarre, not to mention completely unscientific.
If CO2 levels get high enough, an entirely new level of plant life will remove all that is possible.
CO2 levels DO NOT control temperature. That is backward. But hey, go ahead and continue believing the fiction.

Jake
July 29, 2014 3:22 am

To GeeJam: It is well documented that atmospheric CO2 had been fairly constant at 280 ppm in the time prior to the industrial revolution, at which time CO2 has exponentially increased to its current level of just over 400 ppm. 400 – 280 = 120 …. sorry for the somewhat sloppy sig figs ;). I’m not sure you understand what the values are representing on the table provided.

Another Gareth
July 29, 2014 3:31 am

As others have pointed out this claim rests on considering annual emissions. Half of what is man made emissions this year becomes ‘natural’ the following year as the biosphere keeps expanding.

phlogiston
July 29, 2014 3:32 am

It would be a serious cause for concern if anthropogenic CO2 input to the atmosphere is not responsible for a significant fraction of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
CO2 starvation is a serious threat to the biosphere in the long term and, unlike moderate global warming, has the potential to cause extinction of life on earth.
Anyone interested in biosphere extinction scenarios should read Franck et al 2006:
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/29/75/42/PDF/bg-3-85-2006.pdf
This paper points out that CO2 starvation might cause biosphere extinction before heating from solar expansion.
Basically, without human intervention during the next glacial period, as in the last, CO2 levels can be expected to drop below 200 ppm and approach levels that will limit plant growth. Below 150 ppm and you are looking at major plant die-offs.
This might be a situation facing the world population in a few tens of thousands of years time. At that time it might literally be a matter of life and death whether or not we can materially increase CO2 in the atmosphere.
Thus if all the output of the world’s industry, power generation and transport at present is only increasing the atmospheric CO2 level by 3 percent or so, burning fossil fuel as fast as reasonably possible, it suggests we are at the mercy of oceanic exchange processes for CO2 and cant do much about it. This would be bad, not good, news.
Since over the long timescale we are moving toward deepening glaciation, this CO2 starvation scenario might become a reality within the next few glacial cycles.
For this reason I for one sincerely hope that Ferdinand Engelbeen is correct that a substantial fraction of the recent CO2 increase is indeed anthropogenic. If this view is correct it means humanity has some defense available against CO2 starvation, providing our technical-industrial knowledge and infrastructure are preserved.

Alan Robertson
July 29, 2014 3:34 am

GeeJam says:
July 29, 2014 at 3:11 am
Alan Robertson says:
July 29, 2014 at 2:47 am
“You dropped a digit… 120 ppm is more recognized figure”.
—————–
I’m puzzled. If (as you say) anthropogenic CO2 is 120 ppm, that’s over a quarter of all the total CO2 in the air. Thanks, but I’ll stick with the original figures. About 96.775% of all CO2 is naturally occuring. This leaves 3.225% man-made. I do not know where you got your 120 ppm from.
________________________
While the amount of man’s contribution to the rise in CO2 is controversial, 280 ppm/atm is the generally accepted concentration at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
Speaking of “don’t know where you got your figure from”… you are welcome (invited) to post evidence to support your claims.

July 29, 2014 3:40 am

glenncz says: July 29, 2014 at 12:27 am
The chart does not say that 3.75% of the 400ppm is man-made. Those numbers in the charts refer to annual emissions. The theory is that earth was in a perfect balance before mans fossil emissions and now 50% of that 3.75% is what is causing the 2-3 annual ppm rise in CO2.
The above blog post should be rewritten or deleted.

Retraction is no use – the harm is done. But your remark should be added to the original blog post.

Bill Marsh
Editor
July 29, 2014 3:45 am

Alan Robertson says:
July 29, 2014 at 3:34 am
“While the amount of man’s contribution to the rise in CO2 is controversial, 280 ppm/atm is the generally accepted concentration at the beginning of the industrial revolution.”
Alan, are you saying that since pre industiral revolution the CO2 concentration of CO2 was 280ppm and the concentration is ~ 400ppm, then that means that the entire increase (120ppm) is attributable to anthropogenic sources? If so, I am very ‘skeptical’ (or maybe ‘denial inclined’) about that idea. I suppose you could claim that the entire 120ppm is a result of anthropogenic activity and associated feedbacks, but even then I’d have to see some evidence that the proposed feedbacks actually exist.

Alan Robertson
July 29, 2014 3:54 am

dccowboy says:
July 29, 2014 at 3:45 am
Alan Robertson says:
July 29, 2014 at 3:34 am
“While the amount of man’s contribution to the rise in CO2 is controversial, 280 ppm/atm is the generally accepted concentration at the beginning of the industrial revolution.”
Alan, are you saying that since pre industiral revolution the CO2 concentration of CO2 was 280ppm and the concentration is ~ 400ppm, then that means that the entire increase (120ppm) is attributable to anthropogenic sources? If so, I am very ‘skeptical’ (or maybe ‘denial inclined’) about that idea. I suppose you could claim that the entire 120ppm is a result of anthropogenic activity and associated feedbacks, but even then I’d have to see some evidence that the proposed feedbacks actually exist.
_________
I did not make that claim and in fact, said that the attribution of the 120 ppm rise is controversial.

July 29, 2014 3:59 am

Oh brother, yet another thread wasted on trying to explain the obvious.
Here is a 5-year old paraphrase from David J. C. MacKay, professor of natural philosophy in the Department of Physics at the University of Cambridge,
The burning of fossil fuels sends seven gigatons (3.27 %) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, while the biosphere and oceans account for 440 (55.28 %) and 330 (41.46 %) gigatons, respectively. Total human emissions have jumped sharply since the Industrial Revolution; and it is this added atmospheric carbon that worries many. Yes, carbon is emitted naturally into the atmosphere but the atmosphere also sends carbon back to the land and oceans and these carbon flows have canceled each other out for millennia. Burning fossil fuels, in contrast, creates a new flow of carbon that, though small, is not cancelled.

July 29, 2014 4:04 am

This post and the comments that follow bring up some questions.
1) Why do we suppose that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere before the industrial revolution was perfect? If it was not perfect then, what is perfect?
2) How much of the 400 parts per million is there because of nature and how much is really there because of mankind’s activities — and how sure of that are we?
3) What average temperature is perfect? How do we know that?
4) Has the earth ever had much more than 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere? If so, did it lead to “runaway warming” leading to the devastation of life on earth?
5) Does more CO2 lead to a “greening effect” that gives us more plant mass? If so, does the more plant mass use up CO2 from the atmosphere? If so, is that a negative feedback to increased CO2?
I wonder if our understanding of the dynamics of all of this is on par with our lack of understanding of “continental drift” was back when I was in school. (now renamed “plate tectonics)

July 29, 2014 4:10 am

Geocraft had it at 3.225% – http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
Given the small percentage, I suspect both are in the ball park

July 29, 2014 4:14 am

markstoval says: July 29, 2014 at 4:04 am
This post and the comments that follow bring up some questions.
You have every right to ask those questions.
But when citing / quoting a paper, one should at the very least correctly convey what the authors’ claims are.

July 29, 2014 4:20 am

Johan says:
July 29, 2014 at 4:14 am
markstoval says: July 29, 2014 at 4:04 am
This post and the comments that follow bring up some questions.
You have every right to ask those questions.
But when citing / quoting a paper, one should at the very least correctly convey what the authors’ claims are.

I made no claim at all as to what the cited paper said. Why would you suggest that I had incorrectly conveyed the author’s claims?

July 29, 2014 4:30 am

markstoval says: July 29, 2014 at 4:20 am
I made no claim at all as to what the cited paper said. Why would you suggest that I had incorrectly conveyed the author’s claims?
Not you – I meant the original blog post. And it would seem that The Hockey Schtick already retracted their review, as numerous posters pointed out their blunder.

July 29, 2014 4:33 am

Of course, on a somewhat different and even more important note; what e.g. Nick Stokes has missed (or is perhaps unaware of) is that; for the stated rate and retention of anthropogenic (fossil-derived) CO2 in the atmosphere claimed by IPCC in AR4 to have caused the small drop observed in atmospheric δ13C, the initial atmosphere CO2 concentration would have been 2,913.9 GtC, some 3.8 times the figure used by IPCC. This is equivalent to 1,453 ppm of CO2 instead of 380 ppm!
The atmospheric 13C mass balance will agree with the measurements only if the atmosphere retains much less than 50% of the estimated anthropogenic emissions. The necessary retention is 13.1%, a factor of 3.8 less than the ~50% supplied by IPCC in AR4. The IPCC AR4 Figure 2.3(b) ‘Keeling Plot’ is fraudulent. They quoted Battle et al. (2000) but they didn’t botgher to read it.
The surge in CO2 seen in the last century was not caused by man (although it may well have been caused by global warming). The CO2 added to the atmosphere is far heavier than the weight attributed to anthropogenic CO2. The isotopic ratio for fossil fuel would have had to be considerably heavier; -13.657‰PDB instead of -29.4‰PDB, for the increase in atmospheric CO2 to have been caused by man. IPCC can’t even get their isotopic geochemistry right. Dig and ye shall find ‘curious’ literature contortions with the 13C data have continued right up into the last decade! Settled science…..not.
.

TimC
July 29, 2014 4:48 am

Sorry if I’m being dense, but are the numbers being discussed up-thread correct?
The “Table 3” chart above shows total (annual) CO2 emissions of 793,100 E6 metric tonnes of gas, being 770,000 E6 natural and 23,100 E6 anthro. If there were no anthro element the emissions would have been just the 770,000 E6 tonnes. Assuming (am I correct?) that absorption is essentially proportional to total atmospheric CO2, the pro-rata absorption would have been 758,640 E6 tonnes, with no athro element. So: without any anthro element these figures anyway show an annual increase of 11,359E6 tonnes.
Doesn’t this mean that the (suggested) anthro annual increase is just 340E6 tonnes, representing at most 3% of the natural annual increase and just 0.043% of total atmospheric CO2? How is it possible realistically to account for a signal as small as that?

Alx
July 29, 2014 4:48 am

The headline is mis-leading, alarmist claim most if not all of the increase in CO2 is man-made. The table presented shows that human contributions are ~3% of total CO2, then shows the effective increase is ~1.5%.
As wrong as the headline is, the alarmist claim that there would be little to no increase to the total CO2 without man-made CO2 contributions is equally wrong. The global system is dynamic not static with the only variable being humanity.
I do not think alrmist claims would even pass as circumstantial evidence in a court of law. If petty crime went up since Michael Mann was hired by his university, could Michael Mann be arrested as the cause?

Jimbo
July 29, 2014 4:49 am

Anthony,
If there is a mistake here then it should be stated now, and further comments are thus unnecessary.

MikeB
July 29, 2014 4:56 am

Although the conclusions drawn by the Hockey Schtick were a load of junk, the table produced by the IPCC is quite reliable. It gives the relative contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere from natural and human-made sources. This shows that the human contribution was about 3% during the 1990s. The figures are a little out of date, but won’t have changed much.
It is easy to see that, without the human contribution, the natural CO2 sinks on the planet could cope with CO2 naturally produced but when human-made CO2 is included these sinks are overloaded and there is an excess of 11,700 tonnes of CO2 left in the atmosphere each year.
So how does this increase of 11,700 tonnes per year compare to the increasing CO2 levels measured by the Mauna Loa Observatory each year?
The Mauna Loa figures show that CO2 concentrations are increasing at a rate of about 2 parts per million(by volume) per year.
Now the mass of the Earth’s atmosphere is about 5.1*10^15 tonnes so, in proportion, an increase of 11,700 tonnes per year represents an increase of 2.29 parts per million (by mass). So we can see that this is in the right ball park and conclude that the rise in CO2 levels of 2 ppmv per year is consistent with the human-made contribution of atmospheric CO2.
From another perspective, we know that a CO2 concentration of about 280 ppm is normal during interglacial periods like this one and this was the level before the industrial era. See ice core records…http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png
The level is now 400 ppm, the highest level for 800,000 years. In the absence of any other theories to the contrary, it is reasonable to suppose that the current enhanced CO2 levels are due to human activity.
This is not to say that there is a problem. Oil and Gas will run out long before we can double the current level ( at 2ppm per annum it will take 200 years) and, as the ‘pause’ indicates the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 is probably much less than the IPCC would have us believe. So increasing CO2 is as likely to be beneficial as it is harmful.

July 29, 2014 5:13 am

MikeB says:July 29, 2014 at 4:56 am
Although the conclusions drawn by the Hockey Schtick were a load of junk, the table produced by the IPCC is quite reliable.
Quite so, but I’m also sure mr. Anthony Watts knows very well the difference between “annual CO2 emissions in the atmosphere” and “annual CO2 concentration in the atmosphere”.
Then why repost that “load of junk” of the Hockey Schtick here? Very hight trust can be too much of a good thing.

GeeJam
July 29, 2014 5:21 am

philjourdan says:
July 29, 2014 at 4:10 am
“Geocraft had it at 3.225%”
Thanks for backing me up Phil (and reinforcing the link to Geocraft). Man-made CO2 is 3.225% of 400 ppm. If posters wish to highlight the significance of pre-industrial levels of CO2, then fine – but suggest you don’t leave it there. Why not go back 2,000 years to the Roman era when there was even less CO2, yet (according to research) it was considerably ‘warmer’ than it is right now. And they didn’t have carbonated drinks, decaffeinated coffee, welding coolant gas, air-con, dry-ice pellets, refrigeration, etc.
Even if anthropogenic CO2 was 5% of the total atmospheric CO2 (which it isn’t) then it’s still an incredibly miniscule amount when compared to all other gasses present in the air – and cannot be totally accountable for a 1 degree rise in temperature during the last century. It’s 26 degrees C here in central UK today. It was only 3 degrees C here in February. My super-human personal ability to adapt to a 23 degree temperature difference in five months is just astonishing! Nuff said.

JRM
July 29, 2014 5:28 am

Question, Mauna Loa ticks up 2ppm it seems every year, this does not come even close to mans increased output? If man caused it to increase 2ppm in the 60’s, should it now not be going up by 10ppm now as our output increases?

Latitude
July 29, 2014 5:39 am

here we go again……man emits a special CO2 that’s cumulative….plants, oceans, and chemistry can’t touch it
“CO2 levels can be expected to drop below 200 ppm and approach levels that will limit plant growth.”
Our current CO2 level is limiting to plants now….increase it in a greenhouse and plants grow faster

July 29, 2014 5:40 am

GeeJam says: July 29, 2014 at 5:21 am
Man-made CO2 is 3.225% of 400 ppm.
GeeJam, can you please tell us the difference between “CO2 emissions in the atmosphere” and “CO2 concentration in the atmosphere”, and in what units both are measured?

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