Dr. Spencer asks the question: What do we really know about Global Warming?
This is from Wednesday morning July 9th.
This is well worth watching, and I get a mention. Some of the graphs he presents are not only hilarious for their satire of the issue, but are valuable in demonstrating that correlation is not causation.
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Siberian_Husky:
Do the terms red herring, ad hominem, poisoning the well, and guilt by association mean anything to you?
Imagine dissing anyone who thinks there is a god with a hand in destiny while at the same time believing any scientist who criticizes AGW dogma is paid by the oil companies?
Siberian Husky: Looking at Dr. Spencer’s biographical details in his 2010 book ‘ The Great Global Warming Blunder’, I see that he’s a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He’s a former senior scientist in climate studies at NASA, and now heads the U.S. science team for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He’s the co-developer of the original satellite method for the precise monitoring of global temperatures from Earth-orbiting satellites, with numerous publications to his name. If you’ve taken the trouble to watch the video, you’ll see that he was computer modelling hurricanes years ago, so he’s no stranger to the method.
What do his religious views matter – or yours? Looking at his considerable achievements it’s very clear that he’s made valuable contributions to the science of climatology.
And what have you contributed, exactly? Where are your figures to contradict those real-world measurements he presents?
I don’t understand religion at all. Makes no sense whatsoever to me scientifically. However if I ruled out anyone’s opinion on science that also had religious beliefs then I would have have almost no scientists left to listen to.
Also I see very little difference between modern environmental movement and the Catholic Church. They worship different gods and feel guilty about different things but the underlying religion seems the same to me.
We are all irrational in some ways and have biases. However biases and religious beliefs do not change the physics of the atmosphere or the global temperature
Ulric Lyons says:
July 14, 2014 at 4:55 pm
the Spring variation is greater than the Summer.
………….
Seasonal CET variability and correlation to the AMO:
Winter – largest variability, no correlation
Spring and autumn – transitory variability and correlation
Summer – smallest variability, strongest correlation
Just making the observation that the most high profile proponents in your camp are either oil industry paid schills, serial deniers of smoking and cancer/acid rain/ozone holes/global warming, or libertarian/religious nutters. Any “Scientist” who believes in intelligent design doesn’t deserve to be taken seriously about anything. It speaks to credibility.
If you’re relying on Desmogblog’s accusation about AW, that’s based on the phony “Heartland Strategy” document.
How about Gödel? I read that he told Einstein, his buddy at Princeton, that evolution by natural selection was absurd. He might be an ID-er of some sort if he were alive today.
How about prominent warmist scientist Katharine Hayhoe?
Siberian Husky says “most of…” You mean, 97%? Just so we’re clear, on a subject (existence of and capacity of God) which science has no proof either way, someone who disagrees with you doesn’t deserve to be taken seriously about anything. You may think you don’t, but you do believe in God, my friend; you simply think you’re…Him!
Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
A must watch, “because the driving force behind the Global Warming debate isn’t science.”
This is the first opportunity I’ve had to watch any of the presentations from the conference.
How can ANY even biased MSM “Reporter” watch Dr. Roy Spencer’s presentation, and then try to characterize the “skeptic” folks as a bunch of whackos. Roy could have couched his presentation of his slides, with different direction; but to anybody but the dumbest of the dumb, including the US Senate committees, he has spoken to, the message of the graphs, is clear to anyone with more than a 4-H club education.
The party line catastrophism simply doesn’t hold water.
And for those with a 4-H club education; well they probably know better than many others, that the Ag system, is happy for the extra CO2.
Yet someone at CNN or lookalikes, will try to paint this as a bunch of kooks.
The climate modellers; Peter Humbug and friends, will have a hard time , trying to explain their answer to the drunk’s query; ” Wha’ happen ?”
As Yogi Berra would likely say; “Prediction is very simple, especially about the past !”
Excellent report Dr Roy.
Thanks for all of us who couldn’t be there.
g
“””””……Siberian_Husky says:
July 14, 2014 at 8:11 pm
This from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Spencer_(scientist)):
“In the book The Evolution Crisis, Spencer wrote, “I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world.”
So essentially your keynote speaker is also an advocate for Intelligent Design.
Speaks volumes doesn’t it?……””””””
Well SH, that is one giant leap of faith, on your part, to equate, as in, identical to; “Creation” , and “Intelligent Design.”
Creation, we know for sure, as in an existence theorem, actually happened. Well some of us call it the “Big Bang”. I dunno, whether it was a big bang or not. If it started from nothing, as they suggest, it was likely a very small even sub microscopic bang. Maybe a “poof!”
Well that’s a prevailing theory; something happened; I doubt it was very big.
Well I am sure there are the Fred Hoyle disciples, who think it always was, so nothing actually happened. Well if it did, nobody remembers. It’s hard to remember when nothing happened.
But intelligent design implies more than “something happened” or even “nothing happened”. The inference is “Somebody did something”.
Well no harder to swallow, than either something or nothing happened.
Lots of stupidity in “intelligent design.”
Take the Borneo, and Sumatra Rain Forests. All life in those forests, including the forests themselves, is evidently ultimately dependent on figs, and fig trees.
Well we know a thing or two about figs, since that was our original free clean green renewable energy, before fire, and fossils.
The figs and fig trees are pollinated by wasps. NOTHING ELSE can pollinate those fig trees.
Not just any wasp; the fig wasp. It is the only wasp or creature of any kind, whose head is the right shape and size to squeeze through the opening in the end of a fig. She’s a female, since only females have wings, and can fly to the fig. Squeezing in that mini cavern is a tight squeeze, and she strips her wings off in the process, but the pollen on her body does its thing on the fig as she squirms inside. There she lays her eggs, and dies.
Eggs hatch and the grubs eat parts of the fig. There are males and females, but only females have wings. So they mate inside the fig, and then the females eat their way out and fly off to another tree, or another fig, carrying more pollen with them. Males got no wings, and already mated, so ain’t going nowhere, but to bird guano.
So that’s how the fig wasp propagates itself; THE ONLY WAY, and its the only way for the fig tree to propagate. Two disparate species, who can’t survive without the other, and the whole forest habitat depends on them.
So what kind of a nut job, would call that intelligent design. Pretty stupid if you ask me. About as smart as Giant Panda living on one species of bamboo, only.
So SH, stop believing everything you read in Wikipedia.
There’s nothing wrong with saying; “I can’t explain what happened.” That doesn’t justify blind acceptance of a totally absurd and un-provable explanation.
You should listen to Dr. Spencer’s speech again, and try to find where he said anything about how it all started.
Natural contemplation refuge even for the most brilliant:
Albert Einstein: God does not play dice.
Stephen Hawking: God not only plays dice. He sometimes throws the dice where they cannot be seen.
Reblogged this on Kurlee Locks's Blog and commented:
Does demonstrate you can’t wish science to your liking.
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Does it?
This world we live in is governed by natural laws. A scientist who is honest in his handling of those natural laws is credible as a scientist no matter what he believes is the source of them.
So what if Dr. Spencer questions the consensus and doesn’t accept that “the science is settled” regarding the origin of all that surrounds us. At least he doesn’t worship tree rings as all knowing.
Find a flaw in what he said is happening now regarding CAGW and the hype surrounding it.
Slide notes for Spencer’s talk:
Dr. Roy Spencer: 0:00 to 24:30 of
03:50 – Today I’m going to give the least technical talk I’ve ever given. Or perhaps since the sixth grade…. Or the last time I’ve gave Senate Testimony.
08:00 – What do we really know about Global Warming: ALMOST NOTHING.
We don’t know…
– How strong it is
– What it’s caused by
– Whether it makes severe weather worse
– When it started
– When it will end
– Whether it’s “good” or “bad”
09:45 – Nearly Every Century Might Experience Global Warming or Cooling. Temp erature Reconstruction for N. Hen. 1 – 2000 AD shows modern warm Period no exceptional.
11:00 – We know that IPCC HINDCASTS of warming have largely failed, bothe for GLOBAL AVERAGE conditions…. (90 CMIP5 Climate Model vs. Observations.)
12:30 … And REGIONAL conditions.
(US. Corn Belt Temperatures, JJA 1900-2013, 42 CMIP5 Model Avg vs Observations.
15:15 – We don’t’ know whether it is causing worse drought conditions (Probably not). 800-2000 Drought Area in the West.) Cook et al, Science 2004.
15:55 — We don’t know whether it causing worse tornadoes (apparently not) 1950-2013 EF3+ tornado count bar graph.
16:15 – We don’t know whether it’s causing more tropical cyclone activity (apiparaently not) (Maue chart: 1972-2014) Accum Cyclone Energy.
16:40 – We don’t know if it’s causing less snow cover. (apparently not) Jan. N. Hem. Snow cover Extent (1967-2014)
17:10 – We don’t know if it’s causing worse snowstorms. (Probably not). Dec. 1947 2 feet of snow on NYC
18:40 – We DO know that global grain yields are increasing, despite warming. (World Wheat, SoyBean and Corn Yield – 1960-2011)
20:45 – .. And the “global greening” has been occurring in recent decades.
21:55 — We DO know that, even if we are at fault, there’s nothing much we can do about it anyway (without stopping most economic activity) (Lomborg plot: Renewables share of global Energy, 1800-2035)
20:40 – We even know that the public is losing interest. (Google search key word popularity)
23:00 – Finally, we DO know that the alleged cause of warming, carbon dioxide, is necessary for life on Earth…
AND that nature gobbles up 1/2 of what we produce, no matter how much we produce….
So, given all of this evidence…. why aren’t scientists advocating producing MORE carbon dioxide?
23:45 – Because the driving force behind the global warming debate isn’t science.
Thank you.
Timestamped Notes of talk by
Dr. Jay Lehr, Heartland Inst. Science Director.
Ground Water Hydrologist. Owner of world record for jumping out of an airplane every month for 32 straight years. “Record for Stupidity”.
27:20 – Reasons for humans not responsibily for Earth’s temperature on back of business card. Talk to 3 people a day while traveling. Junk science cherry picking.
32:40 – The primary force we battle is the US EPA. I Don’t think we can reduce the power of EPA, We have to Replace the US EPA. I have a plan.
34:40 – The plan in detail (check Heartland.org website) 4 pages.
35:15 – There is no one with a greater right to propose a plan to replace EPA in Washington than I. For I played the greatest role in America to establish it. 1968 I helped the Bureau of Water Hygiene into something stronger. No regrets for what I started, but I’ve been doing penance for 40 years.
36:30 – William Ruckelshaus first and biggest mistake: banning DDT. Responsible for deaths of over 100 million people.
37:10 – Safety net of regulations. Clean Water, Clean Air, Mining, … seven laws. “We did nothing in the 70s that was NOT effective.” “I would argue since 1980 there has not been a single” law, reg, “that has had any value.” Superfund was first of these disasters. Endangered Species Act, too.
38:30 – My Plan: Replace Washington EPA with Committee of the Whole of the 50 States — In Topeka, Kansas – the geographic center of the USA. “Government is best when it is local.”
39:50 – Phase out US EPA (Wash DC) over 5 years. 50 state agencies. Each State sends 3 delegates. They will elect a Chairman for 3 years, no more.
41:00 – “No one in this room could name for me the 14 offices of US EPA.” Phase out as follows:
“Over the next 5 years, you will all lose your jobs. Some of you will go back to your states.” The states will get $20 million/year/state. Budget for EPA is $8.2 billion. New plan: $1 Billion goes to states, $1 goes to Topeka HQ and research. $6.2 billion is saved.
42:30 – First two offices to go: Office of Indian Affairs. And Office of Indian Environment. Move them to Bureau of Indian Affairs, with 1/2 of budget.
43;10 – Year 2: Move offices of policy, admin, enforcement.
Year 3: Move Air and Radiation, Solid Waste
Year 4: Move Water, Chemical Contamination
Year 5: Move Chief Council, CFO, Env. Information Officer, Administrator.
A very smooth transitions to shut down Washington and Regional Offices. The States should be thrilled. They will have a say in everything and more money.
44:45 – Over these 5 years, the Committee of the Whole will review every regulation the states are forced to operate by US EPA. They will have the right to revise, eliminate, delegate to States, or advise Congress for changes. Global Warming is about to become the biggest thing EPA has ever done. The States will embrace the phase in. I think Congress will embrace it.
46;30 I am a recruiter. Ex-Navy. Take the plan. Talk to people. Journey of 1000 miles begins with a step. Take that step. Send it around.
Nobody LIKES EPA. They think we NEED it. The Plan does not eliminate environmental protection. We will lose nothing but 15,000 people and $6 billion in budget.
Roy Spencer said
warming is only partly human-caused,
Henry says
He is wrong on that count, maybe it is because his data set is wrong as well.
My data set [on minima] shows there is no man made warming, whatsoever. Or it is so small that it is not even measurable.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
You have remarked very interesting details! P.s. Nice web site =)