Consensus is irrelevant in science. There are plenty of examples in history where everyone agreed and everyone was wrong.
While I admit to being quite surprised they’d allow him equal time, I doubt he’ll win any converts as much of the readership thinks 97% consensus is a fact, and they don’t really want to hear anything different. Tol writes:
Most of the papers they studied are not about climate change and its causes, but many were taken as evidence nonetheless.
…
Dana Nuccitelli writes that I “accidentally confirm the results of last year’s 97% global warming consensus study”. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I show that the 97% consensus claim does not stand up.
At best, Nuccitelli, John Cook and colleagues may have accidentally stumbled on the right number.
Read Tol’s essay here: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jun/06/97-consensus-global-warming
Jim Hunt says:
June 9, 2014 at 2:52 pm
@Alan – Try increasing the time period instead of decreasing it. I’m sure I read somewhere you need at least 30 years before you can call something “climate”.
___________________________
Oh, OK.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png
Re: RACookPE1978 says: June 9, 2014 at 3:12 pm
I know you posed this question to somebody else, but I’ve already answered it several times. I thought you said you understood physics?
I understand both nuclear physics and radiation physics … and a few other things.
But I don’t understand any part of your apparent answer above: Try answering this question in your own words:
What is the specific evidence for man’s release of CO2 affecting the climate the past 70 years?
Well, certainly! Now, What part of “Antarctic sea ice extents maximum of 33 Mkm^2 are much more important than the little bit of 3Mkm^2 remaining at Arctic sea ice minimum in mid-September” do you need help with?
RACookPE1978 says:
June 9, 2014 at 3:55 pm
_______________
There’s that pesky albedo thing… mwahahaaa
The Guardian cowards locked the comments making sure it appeared that I could no longer respond.
This is the only way they can pretend to win debates.
Yeah. Go ahead and “explain” that albedo thing to me for the edge of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents in mid-September for each hour of the day on each day of the month, would you please?
I’m interested in what function you chose to use for Air Mass as a function of solar elevation angle, what clarity index you chose for the clear sky, what percent clear-sky/cloudy-sky you chose (and why), and what the correction factor to the measured open water albedo as a function of solar elevation angle under wind speeds below 10 knots you believe is correct. Most important, what percent transference do you use for indirect (diffuse) sunlight in September and August, and what paper did you use a a reference?
Oh, by the way, what function do you prefer to determine the latitude of the edge of sea ice as a function of day-of-year?
See, if you use the actually factors accurately, you might end up finding out that the Antarctic sea ice reflects 2-3-4 times more energy than the Arctic absorbs (depending on which day in September you check.)
RACookPE1978 says:
June 9, 2014 at 4:31 pm
Yeah. Go ahead and “explain” that albedo thing to me for the edge of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents in mid-September for each hour of the day on each day of the month, would you please?
______________________
Seriously, RC? You know how it works… In September, Antarctic sea ice extent (anomalous, or in any context,) is X number of times the size of Tejas, just when the ice/solar incidence/reflectance matters the most. I’m guessing that you thought that I wasn’t merely emphasizing your point.
Re: RACookPE1978 says: June 9, 2014 at 3:52 pm
A few pictures are worth a million words:
http://econnexus.org/a-conversation-between-sceptics/
Jim Hunt says:
Now you’ve gone and wasted another few screenfuls of purple prose.
No, that was you and your doggie. I posted verifiable facts. Lots of them. But you have never discussed the links I posted, not once. You posted your opinions and baseless assertions. There’s a difference. My links can be verified — whereas you only emit opinions, and appeals to corrupt authorities.
Next, you ask:
Have you ever studied physics? A one word answer will suffice.
Yes.
And in that one answer, I have replied to more questions than you ever have, when I’ve asked questions. You are terrified of getting into a discussion that is limited to empirical, measurable facts — and everyone here can see it in your irrelevant responses. Blowing smoke isn’t answering questions.
Next you say:
Apparently you can’t understand English as well as being unable to pronounce it properly.
You have never heard me speak, so chalk that up as just one more baseless assertion.
Next:
Let me quote the IPCC again for you:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”.
Which says exactly nothing. I’ve really tried to educate you, but your mind is closed tighter than a submarine hatch: the planet has been warming since the LIA. That is unequivocal. The warming is natural, unless you are claiming that the first two step changes are natural, but the third one isn’t. No rational person would make that preposterous assertion.
As I’ve repeatedly pointed out: there is no measurable, testable scientific evidence quantifying the degree of global warming that can be attributed specifically to human activity. The climate Null Hypothesis shows that human emissions do not make any measurable difference in global T. But so far, that hasn’t sunk in. I seriously doubt that at this point you are capable of understanding the Null Hypothesis.
Next, Hunt says:
@RACookPE1978 – Can I take it that you’re not in fact just dbstealey in disguise?
Desperate, aren’t you? No, RACook and I have never met, except in these threads. But let me note once again that neither Hunt/Snow White, or his pooch, ever answered RACook’s straightforward questions. As always, they obfuscate, and make ad-hom attacks, and make baseless assertions, and appeal to corrupt authorities, and to always wrong computer models, and they editorialize. But answer questions? Never. They are wary of the trap of getting into a discusion with skeptics regarding verifiable, measurable empirical evidence. Because they have nothing that would stand up to even mild scrutiny.
Next, Hunt/White says:
If you’re referring to my alter ego’s blog, then I’m instructed to inform you…
What?? Does he/she have any idea how psychotic that sounds? Leon Festinger would have had a field day with that guy/gal. Earth to Hunt: Mrs Keech’s flying saucer is due any day now. Have patience, it will take you to a better place.
Next, RACook asks:
What is the specific evidence for man’s release of CO2 affecting the climate the past 70 years?
I have been asking essentially the same question repeatedly: post scientific evidence — based on hard data — that quantifies the global temperature rise putatively caused by human CO2 emissions. Make sure it is evidence, and not pal-reviewed assertions, or always-wrong computer model predictions. ‘Evidence’ means testable, measurable raw data. If Snow White can post such evidence, she will be the first, and on the short list for a Nobel Prize. Because there is no such data. Baseless assertiona are all the alarmist crowd has.
Finally, RACook asks Hunt:
Go ahead and “explain” that albedo thing to me for the edge of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in mid-September for each hour of the day on each day of the month, would you please? I’m interested in what function you chose to use for Air Mass as a function of solar elevation angle, what clarity index you chose for the clear sky, what percent clear-sky/cloudy-sky you chose (and why), and what the correction factor to the measured open water albedo as a function of solar elevation angle under wind speeds below 10 knots you believe is correct. Most important, what percent transference do you use for indirect (diffuse) sunlight in September and August, and what paper did you use as a reference? …what function do you prefer to determine the latitude of the edge of sea ice as a function of day-of-year?
That is amusing, because Snow White or Hunt — I forget which — stated upthread that positive albedo feedback is “a fact”. But of course, such a simple-minded question can’t be a ‘fact’ because as RACook makes clear, there is far more to albedo than Hunt’s simpleton question.
I almost never make predictions. But here’s an exception: I predict that neither Hunt nor his canine pal will answer a series of questions based on testable, measurable data. “Hard data”, as the dog made the mistake of suggesting. Because the alarmist clique always avoids fact-based answers, which can be verified or deconstructed. With them, it’s assertions all the way.
But if I’m wrong, great! I have my questions all ready.
dbstealey says:
June 9, 2014 at 5:31 pm
“Finally, RACook asks Hunt:
Go ahead and “explain” that albedo thing…”
_______________
I hope that he was addressing JH and just happened to use my post heading by accident… (see above:)
——————–
@ur momisugly Jim Hunt: I checked the link you provided last, wherein you said: “Perhaps the ‘elephant in the room’ is in fact increasingly “extreme and/or high impact weather?”
——————–
If you really believe that, then I would suggest that you rethink your information sources.
Nah. 8<)
You got your units off there: On May 8 this year, the excess Antarctic sea was 97% the size of Greenland. (Texas ain't big enough any more.)
So, catastrophic global warming (during a period when the average measured global temperature anomalies are not actually heating up) is somehow causing a series of “comments” about the weather to be written? What evidence about your theory/religion are you trying to show with that link?
Alan Robertson,
The way I took it, RACook was responding to Hunt. It was a little confusing, but from your other comments, it’s clear that you and Mr Cook are on the same page.
Regarding the latest Hunt nonsense about extreme weather, see here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here [I have more]. Extreme weather events are all declining — debunking yet another series of failed alarmist predictions.
Hunt and the dog refuse to discuss any real world observations like that. They truly are part of a religious movement, so they can’t think straight. But they know enough to avoid any discussion where they would have to answer some questions, and explain their answers using hard data.
It’s always like this. The alarmist crowd lost the scientific argument a long time ago, and they lost it decisively. So now they use off-topic ridicule, like Fido does, or like Hunt/Snow White, they argue endlessly without addressing any facts, or answering any questions.
That’s why none of them will agree to any fair, moderated debates any more. They lost every past debate for the same reasons — and the YouTube videos of those debates are still available. I have at least a half dozen alarmist/skeptic debates saved. The alarmists like Mann, Schmidt and others got slaughtered in every one of them. So now they hide out, and refuse to debate the science.
At this point all they have left is propaganda. There is zero science on the part of the alarmist crowd — as we see here in the comments by Hunt and doggie.
rustneversleeps says:
June 7, 2014 at 11:52 am
arthur4563 says:
June 7, 2014 at 4:38 am
if you want to know the opinions of scientists about global warming, YOU ASK THEM, STUPID.
Cook et al (2013) did just that. They emailed 8,457 authors to solicit their assessment of their research. Of those responding (~1200):.“Among respondents who authored a paper expressing a view on AGW, 96.4% endorsed the consensus.”
Such self-selection of respondents only approx. 14% would not be tolerated in any professional political opinion poll survey for example. Even telephone based ones versus face-to-face are regarded as inferior or less reliable in political polling circles as a certain level of biasing can occur. All you could take from that information above is there probably is a high level of consensus among scientists of AGW but a near 97% figure could not be asserted with any confidence on the basis of that information alone.
So much for the 24-errors….
http://richardtol.blogspot.com/2014/06/24-errors.html
Cook and co (C14) have a glossy document claiming that I made 24 errors in my recent comment on their work (C13).
Here are some responses. More in a few days:
1. See forthcoming rejoinder. Healey (2011) undermines C13.
2. C14 do not dispute the key claim: non-representativeness of the C13 sample.
3. Consensus is irrelevant in science. Cook’s alleged consensus, that humans played some part in the observed warming, is irrelevant in policy.
4. I indeed cited Legates.
5. The raters knew each other, and frequently discussed their ratings with one another.
6. There are various ways to interpret C13. One is that it was a survey of Cook and his mates by Cook and his mates. Cook himself uses this interpretation, “a survey of human subjects”, in his argument that the raters are entitled to their privacy (see 7).
7. The requested data are for verification and audit rather than replication.
8. C14 do not dispute the key claim: non-representativeness of the C13 sample.
9. C14 do not dispute the key claim: non-representativeness of the C13 sample.
10. C14 do not dispute the key claim: non-representativeness of the C13 sample.
11. C14 do not dispute the key claim: non-representativeness of the C13 sample. They forget that the onus is on them to demonstrate representativeness. I gave a number of examples of over- and undersampling.
12. C14 do not dispute the key claim: non-representativeness of the C13 sample.
13. Andy S complained about rating so many abstracts that he couldn’t tell them apart anymore. I think that is a sign of fatigue.
15. In 7, C14 argue that the raters are interviewees entitled to privacy. In 15, C14 argue that the raters are interviewers.
16. C14 contradict the data of C13.
17. I indeed used a small, selective sample as an illustration.
18. I indeed cited Montford.
19. C14 do not dispute the key claim: C13 failed validation test.
20: C14 do not dispute the key claim: impact and policy papers in C13 contain no evidence on the causes of warming.
21: Implicit endorsement is in the eye of the reader.
22: C14 do not dispute key claim: C13 mistook trend in composition for trend in endorsement.
23: C14 do not dispute key claim: C13’s results are dominated by papers that contain no evidence on the causes of warming.
24. C14 refer to public opinion whereas I referred to the climate debate.
Siberian doggy, your frostbites are getting serious. You did not answer my simple question, which of course is business as usual for misinformers like you. You should read the articles you reference to. First you referred to an article which clearly stated that there were many uncertainties in relationship between temperature and greenhouse gases: “…But this relationship is complicated by several feedback processes—most importantly the hydrological cycle—that are not well understood”. The actual results of your article of choice concluded that the greenhouse effect has significantly increased during the research data period (that is before the 17 years plus pause/hiatus) but did not point finger at CO2 only but a number of greenhouses gases. You were the one who interpreted the article as a defense of your claim of CO2 being the cause. I pointed out that your claim has even been refuted by an article that referenced your article of choice, Nowhere did I endorse that article, the only reason referencing you to it was to point out your silly little game of cherry picking. You did not respond to me pointing out that you had been caught with cherries in you hands, nor did not answer my questions why the CO2 seems to be on a very long vacation from the “global heating” job. You have thereby shown that you are a tool, using the old method of your trade and I am not going to feed you anymore.
Re: dbstealey says: June 9, 2014 at 5:31 pm
That was a lot more than one word!
Great. If you understand physics then ask @RACookPE1978 to explain the Stefan–Boltzmann law to you.
BTW – Extreme weather events are increasing in my part of the world.
Re: RACookPE1978 says: June 9, 2014 at 7:26 pm
Anecdotal evidence of the effects of recent extreme weather events on the infrastructure in my part of the world, amongst other things.
Please explain the Stefan–Boltzmann law to @dbstealey.
Jim Hunt says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:39 am
Re: RACookPE1978 says: June 9, 2014 at 7:26 pm
Anecdotal evidence of the effects of recent extreme weather events on the infrastructure in my part of the world, amongst other things.
______________
I doubt that is even true. Prove it! Why don’t you give us details and cite examples? More hurricanes, tornadoes, what? Record cold winters and heavy snows? Many studies disprove your words, why don’t you know that, or do you know it and come here blathering nonsense, anyway? There is no part of the whole “climate disruption” scare which holds up to scrutiny. I see that you ignored the graphs I’ve shown you. The reason is simple- the only leg you had to stand on was “the 97% consensus” and that pegleg has been yanked out from under you..
[Note to those confused by the above: Robertson is replying to Hunt’s criticism of an earlier RACook answer to a previous question from Hunt. 8<) .mod]
@Alan – Did you bother to read the article I linked to, or the information available at any of the links, or elsewhere on the site for that matter?
Given your response I can only assume not. The Met Office is within cycling distance of here. They’ve been saying things like:
“It has been the wettest winter in the long running England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) series going back to 1766”
and
“Winter 2014 was an exceptionally stormy season, with at least 12 major winter storms affecting the UK. When considered overall, this was the stormiest period of weather experienced by the UK for at least 20 years. An analysis of pressure fields by the University of East Anglia suggests this winter has had more very severe gale days than any other winter season in a series from 1871.”
Jim Hunt says:
June 10, 2014 at 5:53 am
@Alan – Did you bother to read the article I linked to, or the information available at any of the links, or elsewhere on the site for that matter?
____________________
Did you even bother to put up a link? Oh, the link that identifies you as a crossdresser?
No, I didn’t read that.
Trollin, Trollin, Trollin’
Keep them doggies trollin’
Through rain and wind and weather
They’re dressed in straps of leather
Wishin’ nature was on their side….
@Alan – Not that link, this link:
http://econnexus.org/a-conversation-between-sceptics/
Jim Hunt says:
June 10, 2014 at 7:09 am
@Alan – Not that link, this link:
______________________
Now I see what you’re on about. You are here to promote traffic to your own site.
You’ve placed that link here several times. I specifically stated I’d been there and you know that, having specifically responded to my post, yet you maintain a pretense which allowed you to post your link again. Too bad that you don’t yet realize that by that effort and your own words, you have revealed your fundamental dishonesty in this conversation. Give ’em enough rope…
Trollin, Trollin, Trollin’
Keep them doggies trollin’
@Alan – So you think I’m desperate for traffic from WUWT? Geesh!!!!