pear shaped (slang)
A British expression used to indicate that something has gone horribly wrong with a person’s plans, most commonly in the phrase “It’s all gone pear shaped.”The OED cites its origin as within the Royal Air Force; as of 2003 the earliest citation there is a quote in the 1983 book Air War South Atlantic. Others date it to the RAF in the 1940s, from pilots attempting to perform aerial manoeuvres such as loops. These are difficult to form perfectly, and are usually noticeably distorted—i.e., pear-shaped.
Dr. Richard Tol writes about a new revelation coming from an analysis of Cook’s climate publications volunteer raters, conducted by Brandon Shollenberger:
My comment on Cook’s consensus paper has at last been accepted. It was rejected by three journals — twice by Environmental Research Letters and once by two other journals for being out of scope. Fifth time lucky.
As these things go, my comment is out of date before it is published.
One of my main concerns was the partial release of data. The data that was available suggests that all sorts of weird things were going on, but without the full data it was hard to pinpoint what went on. Cook’s resistance to release the data, abetted by the editor, the publisher and the University of Queensland, suggested that he may have something to hide.
Brandon Shollenberger has now found part of the missing data.
Unfortunately, time stamps are still missing. These would allow us to check whether fatigue may have affected the raters, and whether all raters were indeed human.
Rater IDs are available now. I hope Shollenberger will release the data in good time. For now, we have to do with his tests and graphs.
His comment of May 10, 1:16 am shows that individual raters systematically differed in their assessment of the literature. This is illustrated by this figure; the circles are aligned if the raters are the same.
This undermines Cook’s paper. Theirs was not a survey of the literature. Rather, it was a survey of the raters.
Source: http://richardtol.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-97-consensus.html
Of note is the comment “Brandon Shollenberger has now found part of the missing data.”. While I don’t know for sure, it seems that the SkS kidz have left another gaping security hole wide open which allowed Shollenberger (and likely anyone, as we’ve seen before with their forum fiascos) to have a look at that rater’s data. Cook has been resisting requests to provide it.
Shollenberger writes in comments at his blog:
I’ve sent John Cook an e-mail alerting him to what material I have, offering him an opportunity to give me reasons I should refrain from releasing it or particular parts of it. I figure a day or two to address any potential privacy concerns should be enough.
His response will determine how much information I provide. No obligations were placed upon me regarding any of the material I have, but I don’t see any compelling reason to provide information about how I got it either. I’d need a better reason than just satisfying people’s curiosity.
…
But we’ll see what (if anything) Cook says. I said I’d give him the weekend. If I don’t hear anything tonight, I’ll try contacting him via Twitter/Skeptical Science. I may try having someone else from SkS get his attention for me. I don’t want him to simply overlook the e-mail I sent.
By the way, there is some value in associating ids and names. We have comments from many of the people who participated in the study. It could be useful to try to match up biases in the ratings with people’s stated views.
Tick Tock.
Philip Peake says:
“My wife was babysitting a neighbors kids. They asked where she came from, she told them England. Then they commented that she spoke English well, and asked what language people spoke in England.”
I’ve had a similar experience. Back in the pre- Crocodile Dundee 70s, as one of a group of visiting sailors in Hawaii, Americans found our accent quite entertaining, even more so when we, and they, were drunk. An initial comment would be “hey, you guys speak good English”. I wonder still if they hadn’t confused Australia with Austria… but then Austria lacks a navy.
Pamela Gray @ur momisugly May 10, 2014 at 9:34 am
I’ve always been interested ion the origins of these phrases. Do you have references? I certainly agree it comes from aviation. The belly of an aircraft is it’s underside (where the wheels 🙂
That would be of USA, not British origin. It is either a vulgar version of “belly up” (most likely), known in the US and first captured in print in 1920, or a reference to WW2 (unlikely) aeroplanes and one of their dials, which when broken, turns upside down. The upside down lettering looks like breasts, and usually means enough damage to the cockpit that you had better bail if you still can.
Auto,
A Copa do Mundo is being played in Winter this time.
Declaration of Peace:
We, the Anglophosphere, are united by a common set of political beliefs in liberty, justice and the rule of laws, not men. We can all agree on this.
Now back to mocking each others’ accents 🙂
Thanks for the assistance in finding some of those e-mail addresses guys. I’ve received a response to my e-mail from John Cook, but I believe I am still going to attempt to contact the other authors.
I don’t intend to disclose the contents of Cook’s response to me, but I will point out he did not make any request for material to be withheld, not even temporarily while matters could be discussed. I don’t think he understands how situations like this work.
Brandon Shollenberger says:
May 10, 2014 at 4:17 pm
I don’t think he understands how situations like this work.
That appears to be a colossal understatement.
Cook’s paper should of just been call “Ari Jokimaki rates abstracts”.
What’s the “security hole” the Sks kidz left wide open?
Brandon Shollenberger (May 10, 2014 at 4:17 pm says of John Cook “I don’t think he understands how situations like this work“.
What John Cook does understand only too well is that once he gets “97%” into the MSM (as he has done) then it is unassailable. No amount of analysis, paper retraction, court findings, etc, can ever remove it. As jeremyp99 (May 10, 2014 at 1:45 pm) says: “even when it is deconstructed for true believers, such is their belief, they still believe it“.
Science does not advance via popularity contest. Did Einstein convene a science conference and say how does E=MC^2 sound, I am also thinking of E=MC^3 or how about E=MC.
Brandon S.
Note I neatly sidestepped attempting to spell your surname, may I correct your earlier question/statement to whit, “I would like to contact ***********”” Might I suggest that that statement, might be better expressed as “I need to try to contact *********”.
I cannot imagine any rational sentient being actually “liking” to contact that list of people. More power to your arm sir, thank you.
Wayne,
Your snow just arrived here in the foothills outside Calgary at 18.00 hours MT, a veritable blizzard of climate disruption. Like you I remember the usage of both “T** Up” and “Belly Up” from my early years in the UK, my father was a pilot in the Feet Air Arm and I remember that phrase coming up when he was having a conversation with one of his old school friends, a Lancaster tail gunner, when I was about five in 1950.
Pamela,
Lets face it, the English are a mongrel race, the Irish were the Celts that could swim whereas the Welsh and Scots couldn’t, the Scots could run further that the Welsh. I’m a mongrel like the majority of the Anglo-sphere inhabitants.
Mike Singleton says: “Lets face it, the English are a mongrel race, the Irish were the Celts that could swim whereas the Welsh and Scots couldn’t, the Scots could run further that the Welsh. I’m a mongrel like the majority of the Anglo-sphere inhabitants.”
Few Europeans aren’t “mongrels” apart from perhaps Basques. While you don’t mention Anglo-Saxons directly, it’s mildly amusing for the English to be called thus when Saxon “blood” makes up only 5% of English DNA (rising to 15% in the east, where they came ashore) and that includes Angles and Jutes. Modern thinking has it that Britons were already speaking a Germanic language when the Saxons et al “invaded” which is why there are so very few Celtic words in English- the Celts had already been restricted to Scotland, Wales and Cornwall. As for the Scots, many were Irish immigrants!
Not defending Cook, but Schollenberger’s analysis appears to assume that each researcher was assigned equivalent material, and that the differences in ratings are therefore a result of researcher bias rather than true variations in the material. But the material could have been assigned on e.g., a per-journal basis. This is just my quick take — I know Cook’s paper was rubbish.
Mike Singleton:
I’m not sure why my arm would need more power, but I was actually happy to contact the ones I got e-mail addresses for. After reading John Cook’s response to my e-mail, anyone would seem appealing.
NZ Willy:
They’ve said the material was assigned randomly. I can’t imagine why they’d lie about that, and everything I’ve seen in the data supports it.
Brandon,
“More power to your arm” is an English colloquialism wishing well to anyone doing good work, you deserve it. I’m sure someone here will likely have a source for the expression. Being contacted by John Cook in any manner would leave me wanting to have a shower.
Mike T,
No, as you spotted I didn’t specifically mention Angles or Saxons, the movements of peoples around the world really is fascinating and the reality is sometimes different to the common lore. I forgot about the Cornwall Celts, guess they were the warm weather loving ones, can’t say I blame them.
I know that my mitochondrial DNA, as reported to me by the Geno-graphic project, indicates my blood line moved from Africa through central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Germany or the Nordic countries to the UK. My family tree shows family roots on the east coast of Yorkshire from the mid 1600’s, so I could be Saxon or Angle or, more romantically, “Viking” or ?. I do know that my arthritis is indicative of a Nordic background, darn it.
If we all take our roots back far enough then “Lucy” is our source.
East Yorkshire is indicative of Viking blood, yes. But everyone came out of Africa, and most Europeans through the Middle East. Getting completely off-topic, my surname has hitherto been though to have been Norse (although my family came from the West Country) but further research is leaning me towards a Cornish origin.
Global Warming consensus? Not so fast…
Every time one of these AGW cultist posts some frothy mouthed, bug eyed reply to a reasonable doubt about the validity of AGW, they almost always cite the “97% of scientists agree” statement. Let’s just examine that claim shall we?
What they are referring to is the University of Illinois survey in 2009 that found that 97.4% of agree that mankind is responsible for global warming. This is easily debunked when one considers its selection methodology. The University of Illinois study originally included 10,257 respondents. Of that group, the researchers (Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman) concluded 10,180 “weren’t qualified to comment on the issue because they were merely solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists, astronomers and the like”. Of the remaining 77 scientists whose votes were counted, 75 agreed with the proposition that mankind was causing catastrophic changes in the climate. And, since 75 is 97.4% of 77, ‘overwhelming consensus’ was demonstrated. In reality, the 75 respondents that agreed with AGW is actually only 0.73% of the original sample group.
Furthermore, in 2013 John Cook et al examined 11,944 articles from peer reviewed literature dated 1991-2011. They found that 66.4% (or 7931 of them) expressed no view whatsoever on AGW/ACC. Of the remaining 4013 articles, 97% (or 3893 of them) agreed with AGW/ACC. This again “demonstrates” a 97% consensus in their eyes. However, fundamental math would tell you the actual percentage of peer reviewed literature from this time frame endorsing AGW/ACC is actually only 32.6%. The actual numbers in both these surveys have been ignored by AGW/ACC proponents in favor of being able to cite the “97% Consensus” argument. I doubt that most AGW/ACC believers are even aware of these facts. The next time one of them uses this bogus statistic, please feel free to educate them”
Sadly this is exactly true. The same with Lewndowsky’s trash. The point is NOT to do robust science – it is to simply make it [barely] credible enough to get accepted by a journal – then rush it to the media.
We cannot give up continuing to refute this bad science. Success builds on success – and nothing generates attention as well as scandal – especially when supported by legitimate supported claims..
Mike that is interesting. They also found blood groups can also point to palaeoheritage. B group like one of my sons has, usually denotes they came from Nordic hunters, and O is the oldest blood group. I’m no expert, but white skinned people developed because they needed to absorb more Vit D from the sun. Interesting eh. That is why Nordic people today, tend to be paler than say Mediterranean or dark eyed haired people. Chinese and Japanese people have generally no wisdom teeth and shovel shaped incisors.
Another Geologist’s Take says:
May 10, 2014 at 1:06 pm
Since I was a teen in the 1960’s in rural Ontario and used the same expression, I assume that it came out of WW2 and was common to US and Canadian forces if not the other allied forces.
RAF banter:
Gone pear shaped well it has several meanings, but belly up means dead or finished to me, pear shaped well the original was round. In other words, the original arrangment has been proven wrong.
That’s neat! There are 97 comments on a 97% post.
Oh. I’ve just spoiled it, haven’t i?
Sorry.
I think bushbunny has just indicated the correct derivation of “pear-shaped”. If an idea or concept is conceived as a perfect sphere – then when this idea or concept looses integrity, then the sphere balloons out at the bottom where gravity (synonymous with the overwhelming truth) pulls on the structure.
As a Brit – I have never considered “pear-shaped” as a colloquial term for being pregnant – such terms would be “up-the duff”, “Bun in the oven” as well as others.
At a wedding in Dorset some years ago in a farming community – I overheard one guy say to another “Is your wife pregnant again?”
“Yep” was the reply
“Arrrgh!” said the first guy – “I thought she was uddering up nicely”
I thought this was one of the funniest things i had heard for a long time – but they did not find it funny at all – to them – this was normal conversation – which i found funnier still………….
rogerknights says:
May 10, 2014 at 2:51 pm
“Best is “Irritable Climate Syndrome”
Isn’t there something you can take for that?
The definition Guy says:
May 10, 2014 at 10:59 pm
A large pinch of salt is said to be most efficacious.
Pamela Gray says:
May 10, 2014 at 3:04 pm
“My ancestors were all decidely anti-United Kingdom (I’m fine with them now). They almost all trace back to the Scotch Irish (Ulster Irish) area of Ireland, resulting in me being 3/4 Irish (the rest is German), qualified to be a Daughter of the American Revolution, great-grandaughter of an Oregon Homesteader Pioneer, and as Irish as I can be without the accent. I shoot straight, can cook anything, have eaten just about anything, and have been known to be stubborn. I also look decidely like a female leprachan. When we claim something, it is all or none. Tits up is Amercian.
She said sweetly.”
Pamela, if you serve three potato side dishes with meat for dinner, say mashed, boiled and fried, then you’ll be welcome here in Cork City. Actually, you’d be welcome anyway. We’re that kind of people.
Erin go braugh
Is mise
Patrick from Cork