Letter to the Editor (orginally published in the Washington post, also submitted to WUWT)
For the second year in a row, we’ve had peak cherry blossoms later than the average date of March 31. In 2013, they were nine days late; this year they were 10 days late. That’s not a big surprise; after all, the usual peak date itself is just an average.
But what is curious is how The Post’s coverage of cherry blossoms veers into discussions of global warming in some years but not in others. In 2012, when the blossoms peaked on March 20, one front-page article was ominously headlined, “Much-too-early bloomers? As temperatures rise, scientists speculate that cherry blossom times could advance by a month.” A Capital Weather Gang blog post that month was headlined, “D.C.’s cherry blossoms have shifted 5 days earlier: What about global warming and the future?” Why enjoy an early spring when you can turn it into a teachable moment?
Needless to say, this news angle wilted a bit in the past two years.
When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.
Sam Kazman, Washington
The writer is general counsel for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
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lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:07 pm
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 pm
Yup, and dismissed it.
And which of my three points do you dismiss?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Uhhh…all of ’em. The semantic urination contest has so tainted the conversation that it no longer has credibility.
As I stated previously (which you’re free to dismiss): Until “climate science” can play with the big boys, the least they could do is get the vocabulary right. If you can’t even clearly describe the problem, it’s a little tough to solve it.
It looks like you are the one who cannot see other people’s viewpoints, Mr. Svalgaard, without resorting to histrionic condescension and infantile insults. But this time you’ve surpassed yourself. “Dem jedem das seine” is not just a German proverb, it is an anti-Semitic slogan used by the lowest scum on Earth at the entrances of their concentration camps. I am sure there are those who will take into account your unfortunate choice of proverbial expressions. Have a good night, my Aryan friend.
Good Grief! Climates of the World were established many years ago by looking for the lines between where certain plants grew or did well and where they did not. The terminology today has changed but the concept remains the same. The idea that the World has one climate, measured by a single temperature is laughable.
http://geographyias.blogspot.com/2011/04/koppen-climate-classification-system.html
“… Dr. Wladimir Koppen of the University of Graz, in Austria. Koppen was both a climatologist and a plant geographer, so his main interest lay in finding climate boundaries that coincided approximately with boundaries between major vegetation types.”
A major city changes things and the result fits into the Köppen concepts. The UN-IPCC idea of climate by single number is just something someone made up, and is silly.
You know I can’t find where Leif quotes. ‘Jedem das seine” was over Buchenwald, that meant ‘To each his own, idiomatically ‘everyone gets what he deserves” The others had ‘Arbeit macht frei’
Work will make you free. The Aryan race came through North India, certainly not blonde haired and blue eyed. I have to sign out my computer is so slow, supposed to be 25 Mbps.
Leif:
With apologies, a more reasoned response to why I dismiss the flower petal discussion:
(1) Nobody actually has the “original” instrumented climate data – the Climategate boys (Mann, Jones, et al) testified in a US court that it was lost in a fire;
(2) Computer transforms used to manipulate “original” data have not been made public;
(3) Temperature data has been materially revised in 3-4 of the IPCC 5-year Assessment Reports. Without data and transform codes, it’s been done on a “trust me” basis.
(4) Frankly, given we’re haggling over a claimed warming anomaly of 8/10ths of a degree Celsius since 1880, under these circumstances it’s difficult to accept the claim that we know what the instrumented record really is (or was). Sooner or later, satellite data should remediate this problem.
I am interested in your response to the above, but I just wasn’t trained to do physics like that at Ga Tech. DATA IS A BIG DEAL FOR ME (not to mention Galileo, Newton, Einstein and Feynman, but I digress).
I accept there has been warming. I accept mankind is contributing somewhat to increased CO2. However, not withstanding 75-100 computer models failing at the 95% confidence level, I have not seen a rigorous physics theory of anthropomorphic CO2 warming (you know: something on the order of a testable prediction of photons interacting with atmospheric gas molecules, etc).
Thus, imprecise semantic arguments about 1000 years of Japanese flower petals is easy for me to dismiss.
jedem das seine – suum cuique; e.g. Platon.
MISUSED by the Nazis to a cynical attack on civil rights.
think this debates distract from the major point UHI.
brgs – Hans
When Leif said ‘Jeden
das Seine’ this was a classical citation on behalves of personal rights.
He could have said ‘As You Like It’ – Shakespeare.
I read ‘your beliefs are youre own business’.
The troubles only stem from not mention the classic original – suum cuique.
brg – Hans
type mismatch: ‘JedeM das Seine’ – please correct / if you like to /
;-/
Global warming has shifted the cherry blossoms so early that this is actually next years bloom occurring now!
More early spring claims for Surrey in the UK. A few commenters dowse the claims with actual data.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/apr/25/plantwatch-spring-trees-bud-leaf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/13/Tmin/England.gif
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:12 pm
“And which of my three points do you dismiss?”
Uhhh…all of ‘em.
Well, that puts you so far out that you have no credibility left.
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:33 pm
it is an anti-Semitic slogan used by the lowest scum on Earth
I figured you would know German better than Latin.
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 11:37 pm
With apologies, a more reasoned response to why I dismiss the flower petal discussion:
None of this has any bearing on the Japanese data and their interpretation of them. Data is golden and cannot be just ‘dismissed’.
Johann wundersamer says:
April 27, 2014 at 2:11 am
suum cuique was of course what I meant, but the German version served additionally as a honey pot to yank Mr. Feht’s chain.
Read Steinbeck’s”Grapes of Wrath.” There is a reference to migrant workers harvesting citrus crops in southern Georgia during the depression. Today southern Georgia is too cool during the winters to support commercial citrus production. I’m just a mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, monobrow, slack jawed, stoop shouldered, wrench turning engineer and should know better to question obvious authorities like Hanson and Trenbrith (the tree ring guy) and Mann but I thought that I’d point out Steinbeck’s reference. You know me…
Here in Edinburgh (Scotland) we’ve had a huge (as in huge) number of daffodils and narcissi this year and the cherry blossom is later than last year.
P.S. I hate the jeering tone of some of the comments on this site.
lsvalgaard says:
April 27, 2014 at 4:35 am
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:12 pm
“And which of my three points do you dismiss?”
Uhhh…all of ‘em.
Well, that puts you so far out that you have no credibility left.
================================================
Given the choice of being harangued by you, or being true to Galileo/Newton/Einstein/Feynman scientific methodology and response to real data, I easily choose the later.
I’m not worried about your opinion of my credibility, and that was before you inexplicitly injected the vile anti-Semitic speech.
If you have the self-awareness to review your performance on this conversation thread, you may want to apologize, change your email ID or both.
Chip Javert says:
April 27, 2014 at 8:11 am
Given the choice of being harangued by you, or being true to Galileo/Newton/Einstein/Feynman scientific methodology and response to real data, I easily choose the later.
The Japanese cherry blossom dates are real data. Be true to that, then.
I’m not worried about your opinion of my credibility, and that was before you inexplicitly injected the vile anti-Semitic speech.
Is a German translation of Suum Cuique vile? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suum_cuique .
It takes certain low-life persons to misinterpret my quote.
If you have the self-awareness to review your performance on this conversation thread, you may want to apologize, change your email ID or both.
I do not [like you] hide begin a fake ID.
Bushido! We must stand strong, like the cherry blossom, or die trying!
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQooui1eRhw?feature=player_detailpage&w=640&h=360%5D
As an aside, I do like some of the monikers/aliases/Fake IDs used here. I have never seen fit to hide behind a handle myself – I am proud of all 38 inches of me, from the top of my head to my curly-haired feet – why would I misrepresent myself? But I do enjoy some of the obviously fake handles. Among my current favorites is Box of Rocks – which appeals to me on multiple levels – with More Soylent Green! and Follow The Money following closely behind – all subject to change, of course. As always – well done, ladies and gents.
lsvalgaard says:
April 27, 2014 at 8:24 am
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(yawn).
Chip Javert says:
April 27, 2014 at 12:05 pm
(yawn).
Jedem das Seine
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:02 pm
Thanks