Picking Cherry Blossoms

Letter to the Editor (orginally published in the Washington post, also submitted to WUWT)

For the second year in a row, we’ve had peak cherry blossoms later than the average date of March 31. In 2013, they were nine days late; this year they were 10 days late. That’s not a big surprise; after all, the usual peak date itself is just an average.

But what is curious is how The Post’s coverage of cherry blossoms veers into discussions of global warming in some years but not in others. In 2012, when the blossoms peaked on March 20, one front-page article was ominously headlined, “Much-too-early bloomers? As temperatures rise, scientists speculate that cherry blossom times could advance by a month.” A Capital Weather Gang blog post that month was headlined, “D.C.’s cherry blossoms have shifted 5 days earlier: What about global warming and the future?” Why enjoy an early spring when you can turn it into a teachable moment?

Needless to say, this news angle wilted a bit in the past two years.

When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.

Sam Kazman, Washington

The writer is general counsel for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

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Jimbo
April 26, 2014 12:44 pm

I have heard about Kyoto and the cherry blossom bloom. Here are some before and after aerial photos of the city.
1955 – Single [story] shacks
https://www.flickr.com/photos/40295335@N00/4225480527/sizes/z/in/photostream/
Modern times – Skyscrapers galore!
https://www.flickr.com/photos/hauhu/3976622864/sizes/m/in/photostream/

Tom J
April 26, 2014 12:47 pm

I think a much better proxy for climate is not the early year start for cherry blossom picking but actually the early year end for my picking of the nose. During the winter time heating season the indoor air dryness causes my normal nose drippings to thicken, thus blocking those vital airway passages. To maintain proper nasal airway function I must use an index finger carefully inserted into that passage to scoop out the blockage. I have noticed over the years an increasingly later date in which I must perform this necessary chore. I have also noticed a later date at which people are willing to be seen with me in public.
Based upon those two foregoing metrics I think, if that later yearly date for the end of my nose picking should shift to an earlier date, well then, society should spend trillions of dollars and a complete downward modification of living standards and individual freedom to insure against an earlier picking of my nose.
(Although my friends, if I still continue to have any, would probably prefer the earlier date rather than the later date.)

April 26, 2014 12:47 pm

The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
WUWT??

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 12:48 pm

Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.

April 26, 2014 12:54 pm

Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:48 pm
Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.
I have been to Kyoto at about both the times you mention and your general impression is mine as well.

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 1:12 pm

Since reading a bit about Washington’s cherry blossom tree location I thought I would take a closer look. The following is just for the SUMMER.

Abstract
Urban heat island
The phenomenon of an urban heat island was investigated by the use of Landsat/Thematic Mapper data sets collected over the metropolitan area of Washington, DC. By combining the derived spectral albedos and temperatures, surface energy composites of five surface categories were analysed. The results indicate that urban heating is attributable to a large excess in heat from the rapidly heating urban surfaces consisting of buildings, asphalt, bare-soil and short grasses. In summer, the symptoms of diurnal heating begin to appear by mid-morning and can be about 10°C warmer than nearby woodlands.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01431169208904271#.U1wRGJx9CHQ

I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.
1964
Notes from a Study of the Microclimatology of the Washington, D. C. Area for the Winter and Spring Seasons
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1964.9927020?journalCode=vwws20#.U1wSBZx9CHQ

April 26, 2014 1:17 pm

Gary Pearse, Leif Svalgaard, David M. Hoffer:
I’ve read the article, I’ve seen the data.
It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs.
A CAGW promulgating drivel.

April 26, 2014 1:25 pm

Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:12 pm
The phenomenon of an urban heat island was investigated by the use of Landsat/Thematic Mapper data sets…I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/UHI-Effect.pdf
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:17 pm
It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs. A CAGW promulgating drivel.
Nonsense. They say: “many of these studies of climate change are from cities where additional warming is associated with urbanization”.

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 1:35 pm

With the following bear in mind modern day Urban Heat Island effects.

Abstract – 2010
Clarifying springtime temperature reconstructions of the medieval period by gap-filling the cherry blossom phenological data series at Kyoto, Japan
……….We then reconstructed a nearly continuous series of March mean temperatures based on 224 years of cherry flowering data, including 51 years of previously unused data, to clarify springtime climate changes. We also attempted to estimate cherry full-flowering dates from phenological records of other deciduous species, adding further data for 6 years in the tenth and eleventh centuries by using the flowering phenology of Japanese wisteria (Wisteria floribunda). The reconstructed tenth century March mean temperatures were around 7°C, indicating warmer conditions than at present. Temperatures then fell until the 1180s, recovered gradually until the 1310s, and then declined again in the mid-fourteenth century.
\http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-009-0272-x

John F. Hultquist
April 26, 2014 1:35 pm

RobRoy says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:47 pm
The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
WUWT??

UHI climate change is the proven sort. I’ve no trouble with that. Other candidates for climate change are speculative at best. (LIA recovery not part of this discussion.)

vigilantfish
April 26, 2014 1:35 pm

Here in the fringes of Toronto my garden is being graced by snowdrops (as well as crocuses, dwarf iris, species tulips, and scilla). Snowdrops? In late April? They have usually withered away by late March, and I’ve often seen them blooming here in February. Gloomy, late wintery weather is lingering (mind you- also reminiscent of a fine English summer’s day).

Jeff
April 26, 2014 1:44 pm

The article Lief provided, though a pro-AGW article, actually proves the cycles we’ve been discussing at various points. If you look at the chart they provide it clearly shows that the current peak is no different than the one that existed between 1100-1300 CE. Or, the time we refer to as the “medieval warm period.” It fell, not surprisingly, during the subsequent “Little Ice Age.” It began rising again in the 1800s, when the LIA ended and the current warm period began.

heysuess
April 26, 2014 1:49 pm

I too live on the fringes of Toronto and I won’t be opening my swimming pool this first May weekend as I normally do, every year. Checking the 14 day forecast, It could be delayed many days yet. That’s your inconvenient truth, right there. I’m calling The Post for some coverage.

April 26, 2014 2:01 pm

Leif Svalgaard has an Obama-like audacity to call “nonsense” my observation that the article he linked is promulgating the AGW ideology.
The article in question begins thus:
Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones on mountain slopes or farther north of their original ranges. Plants are leafing out earlier in the spring and holding leaves longer in the autumn, creating an extended growing season. Of all of the characteristics of plants that relate to global warming, the timing of flowering is the one for which there are the greatest number of observations. These data demonstrate that plants are now flowering earlier than they did a few decades ago, and that changes are mainly a product of temperature increase, rather than a result of other aspects of the weather.
You make your own conclusions. Arguing with Mr. Svalgaard is tantamount to arguing with a drunk bully on the street corner.

April 26, 2014 2:06 pm

Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:01 pm
“Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones “
Fact 1: the climate changes
Fact 2: it has warmed since the LIA
Fact 3: plant react to that
Fact 4: the authors show that some of the warming is antropogenic [UHI effect] with which nobody will disagree.
Fact 5: you distort their message
Fact 6: I’m not arguing with you, instead I’m attempting to teach you [probably not successfully].

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 2:30 pm

We have this in the conclusion.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

Conclusion
The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. Because cherry trees have such great cultural importance in Japan, the results of this climate change research have been widely appreciated and publicized, both in Japan and among the international scientific community. Even the cherry trees in Washington, DC, donated by the Japanese government, are responding to higher urban temperatures by flowering one week earlier than in the past, providing an example of the biological impacts of climate change right on the doorstep of the American government.

The authors could also have concluded the following too. I have substituted their words in bold.

The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources of information on the impacts of Urban Heat Islands on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. Because cherry trees have such great cultural importance in Japan, the results of this Urban Heat Islands research have been widely appreciated and publicized, both in Japan and among the international scientific community. Even the cherry trees in Washington, DC, donated by the Japanese government, are responding to higher urban temperatures by flowering one week earlier than in the past, providing an example of the biological impacts of Urban Heat Islands right on the doorstep of the American government.

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 2:31 pm

Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”

April 26, 2014 2:34 pm

Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm
Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 2:47 pm

I wonder what’s happening in Washington DC in March?

Abstract
The urban heat island in winter at Barrow, Alaska
……Here, we demonstrate the existence of a strong urban heat island (UHI) during winter. Data loggers (54) were installed in the ∼150 km2 study area to monitor hourly air and soil temperature, and daily spatial averages were calculated using the six or seven warmest and coldest sites. During winter (December 2001–March 2002), the urban area averaged 2.2 °C warmer than the hinterland. The strength of the UHI increased as the wind velocity decreased, reaching an average value of 3.2 °C under calm (<2 m s−1) conditions and maximum single-day magnitude of 6 °C……
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.971/full

No matter how much they try to duck and dive, the cherry blossom bloom date reported in the press over a couple of years tells me NOTHING about global climate. Nothing.

Jimbo
April 26, 2014 2:49 pm

lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm
Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.

Thanks. I just wich Warmists would focus a little less of man-made greenhouse gases and onto UHI. AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.

April 26, 2014 2:55 pm

Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:49 pm
AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.

Latitude
April 26, 2014 2:58 pm

lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.
====
I’m missing something here and don’t get it…..
UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
yet, the paper Leif linked seems to say that UHI and climate change are one and the same???
…plants moving north, etc

Latitude
April 26, 2014 3:01 pm

lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:55 pm
Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.
===
woops….Murphy….we posted at the same time
ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
To me, they are no where near the same.

April 26, 2014 3:03 pm

Latitude says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:58 pm
UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
Because so many stations are in or near cities, their UHI effect will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for this, but poorly methinks
…plants moving north, etc
There is also genuine global warming: coming out of the LIA and all that. To separate what is what [is not] is hard.

April 26, 2014 3:06 pm

Latitude says:
April 26, 2014 at 3:01 pm
ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
To me, they are no where near the same.

We should not try to over-interpret too much. The paper is really about cherry blossom dates in Japan, influenced by both GW and UHI. And hard to separate.