Letter to the Editor (orginally published in the Washington post, also submitted to WUWT)
For the second year in a row, we’ve had peak cherry blossoms later than the average date of March 31. In 2013, they were nine days late; this year they were 10 days late. That’s not a big surprise; after all, the usual peak date itself is just an average.
But what is curious is how The Post’s coverage of cherry blossoms veers into discussions of global warming in some years but not in others. In 2012, when the blossoms peaked on March 20, one front-page article was ominously headlined, “Much-too-early bloomers? As temperatures rise, scientists speculate that cherry blossom times could advance by a month.” A Capital Weather Gang blog post that month was headlined, “D.C.’s cherry blossoms have shifted 5 days earlier: What about global warming and the future?” Why enjoy an early spring when you can turn it into a teachable moment?
Needless to say, this news angle wilted a bit in the past two years.
When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.
Sam Kazman, Washington
The writer is general counsel for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
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I have heard about Kyoto and the cherry blossom bloom. Here are some before and after aerial photos of the city.
1955 – Single [story] shacks
https://www.flickr.com/photos/40295335@N00/4225480527/sizes/z/in/photostream/
Modern times – Skyscrapers galore!
https://www.flickr.com/photos/hauhu/3976622864/sizes/m/in/photostream/
I think a much better proxy for climate is not the early year start for cherry blossom picking but actually the early year end for my picking of the nose. During the winter time heating season the indoor air dryness causes my normal nose drippings to thicken, thus blocking those vital airway passages. To maintain proper nasal airway function I must use an index finger carefully inserted into that passage to scoop out the blockage. I have noticed over the years an increasingly later date in which I must perform this necessary chore. I have also noticed a later date at which people are willing to be seen with me in public.
Based upon those two foregoing metrics I think, if that later yearly date for the end of my nose picking should shift to an earlier date, well then, society should spend trillions of dollars and a complete downward modification of living standards and individual freedom to insure against an earlier picking of my nose.
(Although my friends, if I still continue to have any, would probably prefer the earlier date rather than the later date.)
The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
WUWT??
Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:48 pm
Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.
I have been to Kyoto at about both the times you mention and your general impression is mine as well.
Since reading a bit about Washington’s cherry blossom tree location I thought I would take a closer look. The following is just for the SUMMER.
I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.
1964
Notes from a Study of the Microclimatology of the Washington, D. C. Area for the Winter and Spring Seasons
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1964.9927020?journalCode=vwws20#.U1wSBZx9CHQ
Gary Pearse, Leif Svalgaard, David M. Hoffer:
I’ve read the article, I’ve seen the data.
It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs.
A CAGW promulgating drivel.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:12 pm
The phenomenon of an urban heat island was investigated by the use of Landsat/Thematic Mapper data sets…I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/UHI-Effect.pdf
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:17 pm
It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs. A CAGW promulgating drivel.
Nonsense. They say: “many of these studies of climate change are from cities where additional warming is associated with urbanization”.
With the following bear in mind modern day Urban Heat Island effects.
RobRoy says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:47 pm
The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
WUWT??
UHI climate change is the proven sort. I’ve no trouble with that. Other candidates for climate change are speculative at best. (LIA recovery not part of this discussion.)
Here in the fringes of Toronto my garden is being graced by snowdrops (as well as crocuses, dwarf iris, species tulips, and scilla). Snowdrops? In late April? They have usually withered away by late March, and I’ve often seen them blooming here in February. Gloomy, late wintery weather is lingering (mind you- also reminiscent of a fine English summer’s day).
The article Lief provided, though a pro-AGW article, actually proves the cycles we’ve been discussing at various points. If you look at the chart they provide it clearly shows that the current peak is no different than the one that existed between 1100-1300 CE. Or, the time we refer to as the “medieval warm period.” It fell, not surprisingly, during the subsequent “Little Ice Age.” It began rising again in the 1800s, when the LIA ended and the current warm period began.
I too live on the fringes of Toronto and I won’t be opening my swimming pool this first May weekend as I normally do, every year. Checking the 14 day forecast, It could be delayed many days yet. That’s your inconvenient truth, right there. I’m calling The Post for some coverage.
Leif Svalgaard has an Obama-like audacity to call “nonsense” my observation that the article he linked is promulgating the AGW ideology.
The article in question begins thus:
Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones on mountain slopes or farther north of their original ranges. Plants are leafing out earlier in the spring and holding leaves longer in the autumn, creating an extended growing season. Of all of the characteristics of plants that relate to global warming, the timing of flowering is the one for which there are the greatest number of observations. These data demonstrate that plants are now flowering earlier than they did a few decades ago, and that changes are mainly a product of temperature increase, rather than a result of other aspects of the weather.
You make your own conclusions. Arguing with Mr. Svalgaard is tantamount to arguing with a drunk bully on the street corner.
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:01 pm
“Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones “
Fact 1: the climate changes
Fact 2: it has warmed since the LIA
Fact 3: plant react to that
Fact 4: the authors show that some of the warming is antropogenic [UHI effect] with which nobody will disagree.
Fact 5: you distort their message
Fact 6: I’m not arguing with you, instead I’m attempting to teach you [probably not successfully].
We have this in the conclusion.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf
The authors could also have concluded the following too. I have substituted their words in bold.
Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm
Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.
I wonder what’s happening in Washington DC in March?
No matter how much they try to duck and dive, the cherry blossom bloom date reported in the press over a couple of years tells me NOTHING about global climate. Nothing.
Thanks. I just wich Warmists would focus a little less of man-made greenhouse gases and onto UHI. AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:49 pm
AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.
====
I’m missing something here and don’t get it…..
UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
yet, the paper Leif linked seems to say that UHI and climate change are one and the same???
…plants moving north, etc
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:55 pm
Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.
===
woops….Murphy….we posted at the same time
ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
To me, they are no where near the same.
Latitude says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:58 pm
UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
Because so many stations are in or near cities, their UHI effect will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for this, but poorly methinks
…plants moving north, etc
There is also genuine global warming: coming out of the LIA and all that. To separate what is what [is not] is hard.
Latitude says:
April 26, 2014 at 3:01 pm
ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
To me, they are no where near the same.
We should not try to over-interpret too much. The paper is really about cherry blossom dates in Japan, influenced by both GW and UHI. And hard to separate.