From the Carnegie Institution and the department of feelings, quite possibly the dumbest press release about climate I’ve ever seen. basically what they are arguing for is “don’t look at current and past data go with what we tell you” aka trust us, we are paid climate scientists with a model.
Climate change: Don’t wait until you can feel it
Washington, D.C.— Despite overwhelming scientific evidence for the impending dangers of human-made climate change, policy decisions leading to substantial emissions reduction have been slow. New work from Carnegie’s Katharine Ricke and Ken Caldeira focuses on the intersection between personal and global impacts. They find that even as extreme weather events influence those who experience them to support policy to address climate change, waiting for the majority of people to live through such conditions firsthand could delay meaningful action by decades. Their findings are published by Nature Climate Change.
Nearly every year, extreme weather events such as heat waves and hurricanes spur the discussion of climate change in the media and among politicians. This can create a window of opportunity for those seeking to enact policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But this window of opportunity could be delayed by decades due to the vagaries of weather.
“When support for doing something about climate change is based on personal observations of local weather, policymaking may end up being dictated by the roulette wheel of natural climate variability,” says Ricke.
Ricke and Calderia’s modeling studies show that within 50 years nearly every country in the world will experience the kind of extreme weather that can be a policy trigger. However, local natural variability in weather means that majority of people in each nation, particularly large countries like China and the United States, could personally experience these extremes for themselves either tomorrow or many years from now. If citizens do not support emissions reductions and other efforts to fight climate change until they experience extreme events firsthand, naturally-driven variations in weather could delay action by decades, Ricke and Caldeira found. They find that sound science should guide policy rather than the vagaries of weather. “Local weather is anecdotal information, but climate change is sound science,” Caldeira said. “Good politics can be based on a good anecdote, but good policy needs to be based on sound science.”
“ROM says:
April 26, 2014 at 4:02 am”
You have to remember the fact that in the MSM, if the story is more than 30 sec’s old, it has no legs (Is a /srac off needed?). I see people (Dead people?) all the time wandering around like zombies here in Sydney, Australia, gawping into their smart phones!! If only they took time to spend some hours in a library to find real historical information. Books, at one time, were the source of truth outside the control of “the church”. Seems we’ve lost the desire for truth but in desperate “need” for a “fix”!
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:41 am
Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
But without the computing capacity of a well-equipped national meteorological office, heavily model-dependent services such as event attribution and seasonal prediction are unlikely to be as reliable.
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It’s not the programmers’ fault, it’s the hardware’s fault.
One thing that’s guaranteed:
“….. overwhelming scientific evidence …..”
Whenever you read that, you know there won’t be any.
Eric Worrall says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:43 am
Hilarious – they’re basically saying their nonsense predictions are likely to be once in a lifetime for most people, yet we have to divert tremendous resources to “addressing” the issue? What a bunch of idiots.
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That’s what I was thinking. Kenny seems to be saying that Climate Change™ will cause the average person to see an “extreme weather event” every 50 years, which is a REDUCTION from what we see now. I guess ‘science’ isn’t supposed to be read carefully.
“If citizens do not support emissions reductions and other efforts to fight climate change until they experience extreme events first hand, naturally-driven variations in weather could delay action by decades”
Why just delay for decades? Why not aim at centuries of delay, or millenia of delay and save some really big money? Whether the money is spent, or just plain old wasted, the weather and the climate will just ignore us as usual and go ahead with its own programme.
“Don’t believe the observations, but believe the models.” So, the observations are wrong and the models are right.
Even for ‘climate science’ that’s pretty special. That’s been implied for years, but to actually come out and say it.
Classic left wing stuff, where only the theory is important and facts plus practicality are irrelevant.
Maybe, someone noticed the grant troughs are no longer overflowing.
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2014/04/26/severe-storms-cause-injuries-damage-in-north-carolina/?intcmp=latestnews
Storm in NC. Now Kay Hagan can run on climate change. People in eastern NC will be happy that they won’t have another storm for 50 years.
Anyone doubting that Orwell was more of a prophet than a novelist should read this gem. Our society is crumbling at an astounding rate. History, if there even is such a discipline in the future, will likely portray the Baby Boomers as the generation from Hell. From Hell to Hell.
James Delingpole has a post here linking to a German satire of their Green energy policies portraying Greens as Pentacostals. It’s in German with English subtitles. Jo Nova has a re-post here .
People will back climate change programs when they feel the spirit. Be healed brother!
I’d say whoever wrote this has had plenty big experience advertising. Ugh.
philincalifornia says:
April 26, 2014 at 4:25 am
“One thing that’s guaranteed:
“….. overwhelming scientific evidence …..”
Whenever you read that, you know there won’t be any.”
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I was thinking the same thing when I read that. They start off with an assumption as if it were fact so everything else that flows from that assumption can be considered just that, an assumption.
Perhaps they should have stated: “despite overwhelming incorrectness of climate models, it’s all we got so we’ll use it ……”
But Dr. John Holdren said we should expect more extreme cold because of global warming………..after extreme cold increased.
Others, including Gore, stated that global warming causes snow storms to produce more snow……….after the snow increased.
Just a few examples of the morphing tactic that assigns blame of all extreme weather to climate change.
We’ll, that one didn’t work, so lets now add a new element. Besides causing every extreme weather event, in places not having extreme weather or during times without extreme weather, it just takes longer but is only a matter of time before extreme weather happens to you and if you wait for your extreme weather to actually happen, it will be too late.
Another classic case of “Never mind the facts, look at the theory,” is reported in the GWPF today.
It seems polar bears along Alaska’s Arctic coast are becoming endangered because the ice is too thick, which is the exact opposite of alarmist theory.
Also, some alarmists are admitting that polar bears are capable of moving out of the area where they are being counted.
Berényi Péter says:
That’s a clear and succinct way to make this point. I’ve struggled with explaining this before, the difference between China and Western democracies. Thanks, I’ll remember it.
“Ricke and Calderia’s modeling studies show that within 50 years nearly every country in the world will experience the kind of extreme weather that can be a policy trigger. ”
Funny, They admit natural variation yet still want to kill the US economy… Their model is garbage and yet they persist… They have no facts yet they persist.. This is a religious movement not a scientific one.
“sound science”?
I think I’m going to have my brain removed just in case there’s a remote possibility I get brain cancer.
Meanwhile, yesterday I read that climate change might not be specifically attributable as the cause of the ice fall that killed all those Sherpas on Mount Everest, but it probably was, and we should expect increasing amounts of ice falls and Sherpa deaths from ice falls on Mount Everest in the future. Quit burning fossil fuels and save the Sherpas!
Ps. Sincere condolences to the survivors of the unfortunate victims.
So Kathy & Kenny, it is already going on 7AM here in California.
So what have YOU BOTH done so far today, to reduce YOUR climate footprint ??
I don’t expect you to do too much; just your fair share.
I’d be happy, if today you would reduce (permanently) your climate footprint by just 0.1%, about the same as the solar cycle TSI amplitude.
Of course, I would expect that what you do (today) when carried through by all seven billion of us, will register in your “model” that led you to this great revelation.
Thank you; from all of us.
“””””……. “Good politics can be based on a good anecdote, but good policy needs to be based on sound science.”…….”””””””
We all agree with you Kathy and Kenny; so why don’t you shut down your computer, and start doing some sound science, instead of playing video Apps on a computer.
My wife was watching a CBS “news” talk show this morning and she alerted me, (I trained her to do this using electric “stimulation” therapy), to a “global warming” reference being made by Dr. Holly Phillips, an allergy doctor they had on claiming the global warming was making allergy season worse. She said, “Because our spring was so delayed this year, many things are blooming up all at once. What should have bloomed over a course of a month is now popping up altogether, so we’re seeing really, really high pollen levels.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/allergies-expert-shares-how-long-winter-climate-change-may-affect-symptoms-this-season/
It would be my guess that though warmer conditions could in fact shift the allergy season a day or so earlier on average, that it is the higher CO2 concentration itself that is directly responsible for any increase in pollen. That is evidence of healthier plant life thus good for all life on the planet. Spin away CBS…
Carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes are fake markets,.
They have the vices of bureaucracy and bribery, and they’ve already proved to be magnets for organised crime and corruption. Even if they had none of those disadvantages, they still would not make any significant reduction in CO2 emissions.
But as long as the majority of alarmists regard Global Warming as less important than their opposition to Nuclear Energy or fracking, I’ll take them at their evaluation that it’s not that important.
I get it. She’s a post doc research scientist; evidently a Physicist.; at an “Institution.”
So that puts her in the 65% of USA PhD Physics graduates who are doomed to never find a permanent job in their field of expertise. Well Carnegie have plenty of money to support otherwise unemployable would be scientists.
Shoulda majored in something useful Kate.
I have to admit, my initial thought was that “quite possibly the dumbest press release about climate I’ve ever seen.” was probably an exaggeration. After reading the article I saw that it wasn’t.
As an aside, I’m sure that all WUWT readers are aware that “Earth Day”, is actually; and was deliberately chosen to be, Vladimir Lenin’s birthday.
Didja know he wrote climate papers, that evidently are now being implemented (finally) in the good old USA. God that on the radio news this morning.