Open Thread

open_thread

I have some work to do today that will take me away from being online, so it seemed like a good time for an open thread.

All topics within the bounds of the WUWT commenting policy are fair game. Of recent interest is Mann’s paper on Scientific American and this image (click to enlarge) with his forecast: 

…and Lewandowsky’s Recursive Fury getting flushed.

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MikeB
March 22, 2014 8:56 am

DirkH
One of the aims of double glazing is to keep the moisture out. Filling the intervening gap with water vapour is a bad idea because it condenses and mists the window. I think that’s why they don’t do that.
But you don’t think logically do you? Why didn’t you just say fill it with CO2 instead. Of course, there is no point in doing that either since the glass itself will block IR transmission as well as CO2, in fact a lot better.
But don’t give up hope. Over at Roy Spencer’s site there is a meeting of the Cotton Club. There, Doug Cotton is describing his mind experiment #123987/001 using gravito-thermal hyperbole and a version of physics that no other scientist could understand. Maybe you could help out? You could even elaborate on your theory about Siberian wildlife perhaps? Take Patrick with you.

March 22, 2014 9:48 am

I have started a new blog. Post 1 surveyed the actual scientific literature (not the imaginary one Pediatricians and many others believe must surely exist) and showed the literature quite clearly establishes that vaccines in the first months of life, especially containing aluminum, are damaging. Post 2 remarked on how the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies wrote a 270pp survey last year exactly on the question of safety of the vaccine series, and managed to ignore all of the dozens of papers cited in my survey while finding no other cogent papers on the subject (but discussing large numbers of papers on strawman issues, sound familiar?)
Post 4 points out that the examples of Vaccinism and Global Warmism falsify the mental model almost all of us have of how people such as Pediatricians and Climate Scientists form their opinions. It discusses instead the model of Gustav Le Bon (1895) which explains the observed data much better, including aspects such as the punishing of deniers and the religious intolerance. Le Bon’s book, The Crowd, although not widely cited today, was arguably the text that had the most influence on the shape of the 20th century since it served as a manual for, among others, Teddy Roosevelt, Adolf Hitler, Lenin and Stalin, and Mussolini.
http://whyarethingsthisway.com/

March 22, 2014 10:12 am

Re: Caleb says:
March 22, 2014 at 8:09 am
Here’s an alternative interpretation of the ice thickness around Svalbard, courtesy of the European Space Agency’s SMOS mission:
http://www.icdc.zmaw.de/thredds/fileServer/ftpthredds/smos_sea_ice_thickness/sea_ice_thickness_latest.gif
Broadly speaking, significantly less than “a couple [of] feet thick”

Kelvin Vaughan
March 22, 2014 10:31 am

DirkH says:
March 22, 2014 at 7:48 am
Nobody has ever used an IR-active triatomic gas as insulation. If that worked you’d fill double glazed windows with water vapor which would insulate even better than CO2. But you don’t because it doesn’t. Hint. Re-emission, Kirchhoff’s Law.
My double glazing is full of water vapour. It mists up on the inside when the sun shines on it. Can’t be bothered to get it replaced.

March 22, 2014 10:48 am

MikeB says:
March 22, 2014 at 2:26 am
“If the rate of heat loss is restricted by some insulation (say a blanket or a layer of CO2) …”
But, who says that CO2 is necessarily an insulator? See comment above.
Patrick says:
March 22, 2014 at 6:07 am
“MikeB says:
March 22, 2014 at 4:37 am”
“Maybe, however can you please explain how a global average is measured.”
A more pertinent question is, what does the average of an intensive variable mean?

Kelvin Vaughan
March 22, 2014 10:50 am

MikeB says:
March 22, 2014 at 3:35 am
Kevin,
No, it doesn’t matter where the heat source is. All that matters is that the heat source (wherever it is) is supplying heat at a given rate (i.e. 342 Joules per second in this case).
Really, it’s not hard. See….
http://scienceofdoom.com/2010/07/26/do-trenberth-and-kiehl-understand-the-first-law-of-thermodynamics/
and …
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/17/the-steel-greenhouse/
Sorry for being thick, but doesn’t all those examples assume the radiation from the source is unidirectional and not omnidirectional? Does a 30kw lamp transmit 30kw in all directions?

March 22, 2014 10:55 am

MikeB says:
March 22, 2014 at 8:56 am
“Filling the intervening gap with water vapour is a bad idea because it condenses and mists the window. I think that’s why they don’t do that.”
They do it because the gap, being a vacuum, does not allow heat transfer by any means but radiative, and this is generally much less than that which would be allowed by having a convective or conductive medium between the panes. The principle is used extensively, e.g., in your lowly Thermos bottle, to keep liquids cold or hot.
This is, incidentally, germane to my post above.
Kelvin Vaughan says:
March 22, 2014 at 10:31 am
“My double glazing is full of water vapour. It mists up on the inside when the sun shines on it. Can’t be bothered to get it replaced.”
Then, you are getting much greater heat loss in the winter, and heat gain in the summer, than you should. Once the seal is damaged, the thermal insulative property is greatly reduced. Over time, it would pay you to replace it.

March 22, 2014 11:14 am

Now for some real science. Next month this whole theory will be explored in full in Scientific American:

March 22, 2014 11:20 am

Bart says:
March 22, 2014 at 10:55 am
“This is, incidentally, germane to my post above.”
And, it is a really good additional analogy. The Greenhouse Effect is commonly presented as if the radiating components of the troposphere were separated from the ground by a vacuum, and the only means of heat transfer were radiative. That is, indeed, the thought experiment in Willis E.’s Steel Greenhouse MikeB referred to above.
But, that is not a faithful model of our atmosphere. Here, the lower energy radiative gases which are dubbed “greenhouse gases” are in contact with the surface through convection. The Dewar Flask model does not work in that situation. Indeed, the Dewar Flask works in the first place because radiation is such a miserly heat removal process. Remove the vaccum, and convection becomes much more powerful.
The Earth’s atmosphere is a punctured Dewar Flask. The so-called “Greenhouse Effect” is only looking at a part of the heat transfer through radiation. With convective heat transfer from the surface, the radiative transfer is overwhelmed. The effect of adding more “greenhouse” gases is not at all straightforward – it can result in heating, but is more likely to result in null or negative heating, a.k.a., cooling.

March 22, 2014 11:32 am

Bart says:
March 22, 2014 at 11:20 am
One last note on this – a detractor might say, but you can’t convect the heat to space. In the end, all heat loss from the Earth must be radiative, so what difference does it make?
It obliterates the Greenhouse Effect when the convection is substantial. The GHE says that the GHGs in the upper atmosphere will make the surface run hotter. But, how can they do that if the heat they back-radiate is quickly returned via convection?
And, the detractor answers, “Well, yes, but if convection is constant, then adding a GHG should heat the surface by an additional amount according to the radiation-only formula.”
Response: Who says convection is constant? I suspect, though cannot say for sure, that is what the models assume, and why they have got things wrong, as evidenced by the “pause”. But, convection of heat to the GHG layer itself will increase with increasing temperature. Given that convection is so much more powerful than radiation for heat transfer, it wouldn’t take much to completely cancel out any radiative heating from the additiona GHG.

March 22, 2014 11:32 am

While trying to find an old email I came across this one that was sent to me a year or so ago.
Over five thousand years ago, Moses said to the children of Israel , “Pick up your shovels, mount your asses and camels, and I will lead you to the Promised Land.”
Nearly 75 years ago, (when Welfare was introduced) Roosevelt said, “Lay down your shovels, sit on your asses, and light up a Camel, this is the Promised Land.”
Today, our elected officials have stolen your shovel, taxed your asses, raised the price of camels and mortgaged the Promised Land!
I was so depressed last night thinking about Health Care Plans, the economy, the wars, lost jobs, savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc . . . I called a Suicide Hotline. I had to press 1 for English.
I was connected to a call center in Pakistan . I told them I was suicidal. They got excited and asked if I could drive a truck……

accordionsrule
March 22, 2014 11:37 am

On the graph: “Scientists and policy makers commonly say…”
Seriously, do pure scientists give a hoot about what policy makers think or say?
You would think Mann would not undermine his lawsuit by mixing politics and science.
So now it’s scientists and policy makers, locked arms and united voice, declaring that we must hold the line below 450. A consensus of scientists wasn’t good enough. Now it’s a consensus of scientists and politicians. Like that’s going to make it more credible. Not.

Zeke
March 22, 2014 2:53 pm

Thank you, Carla.

March 22, 2014 3:02 pm

RE: Snow White says:
March 22, 2014 at 10:12 am
Thanks for the link. The ice does look thinner than the Navy thickness map on “The Sea-Ice Page.”
It has opened up again north of Svalbard. That area has opened and shut a lot recently. I imagine the sea-ice involved is the more mobile and slushy sort.

Curious George
March 22, 2014 5:10 pm

: A scientist whose salary depends on policy makers follows very closely what policy makers think or say. It is no accident that lots of posts on blogs like this one are by retired scientists.

March 22, 2014 7:27 pm

bobbyv Good question. I found this part of the Royal Society answer pretty shameless,
“The observed change (of about 0.8 ºC) in the global decadal mean temperatures since the late 19th century is over 10 times the estimated internal variability of these averages.”
Really!

george e. smith
March 22, 2014 7:50 pm

“””””…..MikeB says:
March 22, 2014 at 2:26 am
george e. smith says:
March 21, 2014 at 2:04 pm
First, the Trenberth and Kiehl diagram it is not a ‘Radiation Budget’, it is an ‘Energy Budget’ and it includes other forms of heat transfer besides radiation transfer……”””””
Well Mike it appears that you are correct, and I was wrong. Well somehow I got hold of the wrong version of the official drawing, so somebody else must have labeled it “radiation budget.”
So I would retract my objection to the other included energies, such as the heat flows, except for the fact that such “heat flows”, are entirely internal to the earth. Except for miniscule freak events like cosmic rays, solar charged particles, meteorites, and the like, “heat” energy neither arrives at,nor leaves this planet. So where is his component of heat energy, flowing in the oceans from tropics to poles. All of these internal thermal processes are energy neutral, and don’t change earth’s energy.
My fundamental objection , however still stands. Their ENERGY budget, is in fact a POWER DENSITY budget (areal density) If it was an energy budget, it would perhaps show the total energy arriving at or leaving the earth in say a typical 30 year climate significant period.
Nobody ever observed an “average” event happening; averages are computed, and are thus properties of “models. They are not real world observed measurements.
Now I don’t have a problem with anybody doing mathematical modeling calculations, on sets of data, such as Temperatures measured at different times and places, and included in some data set.
Just don’t represent, that they tell anything about what Mother Nature is doing; Your averages go quite un-noticed by Mother Nature, who deals with energy processes at the time they occur, and then is done with them.
Take a radiometer, and point it at the sun, on any ordinary clear sky day, in any normally inhabitable region of the surface, and see if you can get an incoming solar power reading anywhere near 342 W/m^2. Well try the same thing at night time; maybe you’ll get lucky.
But I do agree with you MikeB. Trenberth et al apparently do call their chart an “energy budget.
People who reprint what purport to be products of someone else, should not change them, from the original. The print, I have which describes it as a radiation budget, is clearly a fake.
If I am not mistaken, Mann’s original “hockey stick ” graph, in an earlier IPCC report, is clearly labeled as a “Northern hemisphere” (local) phenomenon, but people have dropped that, and represented his result to be global.

george e. smith
March 22, 2014 7:53 pm

I keep on forgetting to state the obvious, that “energy” is measured in Joules, NOT in Watts.

george e. smith
March 22, 2014 8:41 pm

It seems that MikeB and Dr Strangelove just like to squirm. I have read this entire thread, including the many discussions about other knots on this thread, being debated among others. And it is clear, that most who have commented on my post, have no problem at all understanding the difference between the instantaneous effect, of widely ranging variable phenomena, and some computed “average” of some OTHER measure related to that phenomenon.
The earth does not respond in any linear way to the local Temperature measured in some box on a post, and trying to assert that some linear average of such local events, somehow relates to whether life on earth continues or vanishes, is just wafting in the wind.
And Mike, if you or Dr Strangelove think you are somehow “educating” me to the fact that Watts is Joules per second; let me assure you that I learned that very early in my first year in high school physics class, and that incidentally was a long time before Dr Kevin Trenberth, was knee high to a grasshopper. I didn’t come down in the last shower.
If you think that averaging energy input rates (power) over time, is real, rather than a figment of a branch of mathematics, just try to convince the people of Hiroshima, that nuclear weapons really don’t do a lot of damage (on average).

Alcheson
March 22, 2014 11:53 pm

bobbyv… Seems the Royal Society is using Michael Mann’s Hockey stick upon which to base their answer.

bobbyv
March 23, 2014 2:49 am

Doug Allen March 22, 2014 at 7:27 pm,
I agree, that stood out to me as well. Not to mention they only refer to temperature records. Climate Audit had a post about Mandelbrot showing flood records have no discernible cutoff frequency. I was hoping they would allow responses to the answers, but I guess the debate is settled.

george e. conant
March 23, 2014 7:36 am

So the Mann Graph continues an ever upward heating of the planet. And it’s consequences are known to him that we will all die catastrophically. Wow. So, last night I put the words Climate Denialists into the Yahoo search engine , Oh my. Alarming. The sheer number of sites and articles relating to the evil doing climate change skeptics was mind boggling. So I ventured into the Bard site Grist. Yikes! A complete list of what to say to well informed catastrophic climate change skeptics/deniers. All aranged by catagories and bullet points. My head spins, so I back out to the yahoo page of links and see another site devoted to “deniers who have seen the light and are believers” , How to work shops on how to re-educate reformed deniers. Imediately I thought, this sounds like a reverse de-programming for religious cults to me. The sheer voluum of anti-denialist web sites claiming CAGW skeptics are oil funded evil doers sent shivers up my spine. There appears to be an organized putsch to clamp down on any inconvenient investigation into the quality and voracity of catastrophic climate change models and predictions for doom. Making my mood more alarmed was a conversation with a 24 yr old co-worker who became very dismissive of my opinion that global warming has stopped dead in its tracks for 17.5 yrs and CO2 levels having continued to rise has shown the global warming models to have failed. Her responce, “It’s not global warming anymore , they call it climate change, just because it’s got really cold and snowwy doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing due to man made GHG’s. Extreem weather WAS predicted ! ” I gave up pursueing the topic, knowing that I was challenging a sacred religious like belief system. It is a crusade to save the earth , facts that get in the way of the models be damned! Wow.

Reply to  george e. conant
March 23, 2014 9:01 am

George e. – A new approach is needed. I read WUWT everyday which could give one the impression logic, reason and science is winning the day and it’s only a matter of time. This appears not to be the case. The Alarmist have struck a chord with politicians, academics and media. It’s a done deal, even with the pause. Period. Climate change is how they will sell the larger plan. Eventually temperature will show an increase and we will never hear the end of it. That light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train. Even so, I keep hoping.

Robert of Ott awa
March 23, 2014 8:11 am

There’ always something odd about members of the ruling elites calling for mass movements. See link on Drudge to Hillary Clinton (sorry can’t get it on my ipad) .
Really it’s about rowsing mobs to shut down your opponents.

JamesS
March 23, 2014 10:57 am

Mann’s fakery seems to know no bounds. Looking at his “false hope” image I realized something was up when it showed 2013 as just as hot as 1998, but then when I looked at the actual anomaly values (supposed zeroed at 1850), I realized it was worse than we thought!
I paid a visit to woodfortrees.org and grabbed the GISTEMP global average series from 1850 to the present, put on a 12-month smoothing, then used GIMP2 to merge the images. The matchup may not be perfect, but if this isn’t outright fraud, I don’t know what is. Maybe Mark Steyn could use it somehow.
(Mods: I tried to post this before, but it seemed to fall into some WordPress purgatory, so I’m trying again.)
REPLY: Whatever you are doing trying to put in the image isn’t working, probably because you are overthinking it with tags, etc. If you have a Woodfortrees link, just paste it in direct from your browser, WordPress will auto link it.
If you have an image, it needs to be at a URL, such as tinypic or imgur. Load it to a service like that and simply put in the URL to it. – Anthony

JamesS
March 23, 2014 11:22 am

Thanks, Anthony, I did use the html tags. I’ll try again with just the URL.
http://hilltopper.net/graphics/manns_false_image.png