I have some work to do today that will take me away from being online, so it seemed like a good time for an open thread.
All topics within the bounds of the WUWT commenting policy are fair game. Of recent interest is Mann’s paper on Scientific American and this image (click to enlarge) with his forecast:
…and Lewandowsky’s Recursive Fury getting flushed.
evanmjones says:
March 21, 2014 at 1:56 pm
“Nothing much there, as it turns out. The hot stuff came out in the first two releases. Take solace at the havoc wrought by that which has come out.”
So it should be no problem to let the rest of us have a look. Don’t expect me to believe that a handful of people have gone through 220,000. Something stinks. Legal threats perhaps? C’mon Evan. Really?
why does his graphic show the last 18 or so years as warmer than the 1998 El Nino year?
21 March: UK Daily Mail: Chris Pleasance: Conman who used James Middleton to promote his bogus rainforest protection scheme which he used to swindle ethical investors out of £1.6million is jailed
A ‘green finance’ boss who hired the brother of the Duchess of Cambridge to promote a bogus rainforest protection scheme was jailed today…
His business Forestry For Life, which netted over £400,000 by claiming to protect the Amazon rainforest, was represented by Kate Middleton’s brother James at a trade fair in London in 2010.
Ames also hired England World Cup winner Jack Charlton and sport supremo Sir Rodney Walker to promote Forestry for Life and his other firm, the Investor Club, at events.
The company director used glossy brochures including quotes from Prince Charles and Tony Blair to promote teak plantation schemes in Sri Lanka and investment in the protection of the Brazilian rainforest.
But no land was ever purchased by Ames’ two companies and not a single tree was ever planted…
Ames blew the cash on sports cars, flying first class around the world and staying in luxury villas in the Caribbean.
A jury of six men and six women at Isleworth Crown Court found Ames guilty of two counts of fraudulent trading by majority verdict.
Today, Judge Paul Dugdale sentenced the con-artist to 40 months imprisonment, saying: ‘You raised money from a number of members of the public, generally speaking those who had savings to invest…
James Middleton was photographed representing the green firm at a carbon trading exhibition in London in October 2010 – while Ames was under investigation by the Financial Services Authority…
The company would offer investors carbon credits that would be used to plant trees and offset their carbon footprint, the court heard.
But Forestry For Life was offering credits for rainforest it did not own and the firm rarely gave investors certificates or proof of purchase…
Ames, the son of David Ames, 62, the boss of Caribbean property developer Harlequin Ames, was arrested in September 2011 following a referral from the FSA to City of London Police’s specialist fraud unit…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2586338/Conman-hired-James-Middleton-promote-bogus-rainforest-protection-scheme-used-swindle-ethical-investors-1-6m-jailed.html
Oldseadog says:
March 21, 2014 at 12:42 pm
> What happened to the graph showing “increase in temperature due to increase of CO2″ being a logorithmic curve?
If CO2 goes up exponentially, then the temperature change will be the logarithm of that, which will be a straight line.
If CO2 goes up as 280 ppm plus an exponential, then the temperature change will accelerate over time.
Don’t you just love the compulsory scary photo of cooling towers.
So in 164 years we went up ~1 degree and the likely scenario for the future is we are going to go up another degree in 22 years!!! If its cooler over the next 5 years, I presume that will put this terrible event off a couple of decades. I better eat my roughage and vitamins if I want to see this falsified, although sure its dead if the next 5 years are cool. They would have to reduce ECS even more – why bother after that.
Mann in the text with the graph throws around delta T numbers from IPCC climate model estimates, and the says, “These data therefore indicate..blah, blah, blah…)
What data? There is no data, only model outputs… with temperatures arising from many dubious assumptions.
When I was doing dissertation work, I ran some regression & correlation aging predictions on immune system recall responses to various chronic and acute virus infections. These predictions were pure speculation, not data. If I had ever tried to call that “data” I would have been severely criticized.
And the stupid MSM just slurp it up like pablum for the weak minded.
Any model that says that global mean temperature anomaly will increase an additional 1 C even if atmospheric CO2 were held at it present level is simply wrong. Surface temperature of the oceans would reach equilibrium within about 25 years max. That means we would get warming at the present rate for no longer than that. This is the simple physics of thermal lag. So much for models that can’t accommodate it.
Anyone who was on the thread concerning the new verification of the Inflation Theory of the Big Bang will enjoy this. I was reading this article on CNN, and when scrolling down to see Comments I noticed that at that moment Comments numbered 666, a little eery I thought…
http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/20/does-the-big-bang-breakthrough-offer-proof-of-god/?hpt=hp_t4
Great video by Julie Brigham-Grette’s Lake El’ gygytgyn Research: many periods when it has been much warmer in the Arctic than it is now.
22 March: Bloomberg: Ewa Krukowska: EU Russian-Gas Cut Bid Amid Ukraine Crisis Sidelines Climate
Leaders of the 28-nation EU delayed a decision on carbon-reduction targets until October at the two-day summit in Brussels.
“We are serious about reducing our energy dependency,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters today. “Europe was first built as a community for coal and steel; 64 years later and in new circumstances it’s clear we need to be moving towards an energy union.” …
The EU’s energy dependency rate is set to rise to 80 percent by 2035 from the current 60 percent, according to the International Energy Agency. Gas from Russia accounted for almost 32 percent and oil for about 35 percent of EU imports in 2010, according to EU data…
Europe’s oil and gas import bills rose to more than 400 billion euros ($552 billion) in 2012, representing about 3.1 percent of the region’s gross domestic product, according to EU data. That compares to about 180 billion euros on average in 1990-2011…
The commission proposed in January accelerating emission-reductions to 40 percent by 2030 compared with the 2020 goal of cutting greenhouse gases by 20 percent from 1990 levels.
The planned climate framework has divided governments and businesses. A group of 13 member states including the U.K. and Germany called earlier this month for a swift decision to adopt an ambitious strategy. A coalition of countries led by Poland, which in previous years vetoed EU attempts to pave the way for tighter climate countries, urged further analysis of the proposed policies on the bloc’s economy…
***Europe will reach the decision on carbon goals in stages, taking stock of the debate in June and defining the targets in October, said France’s President Francois Hollande…
EU chiefs agreed that their new emissions goal for 2030 will be in line with the long-term aim of cutting greenhouse gases by at least 80 percent by 2050, EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said in an e-mailed statement…
The EU has for decades been at the forefront of that process, and hesitation on its part may remove a spur for the U.S. and China to act.
“The crisis in Ukraine seems to have cemented the arguments that Europe needs to have coherent energy security, industrial competitiveness and climate policies rather than rushing a climate package through,” William Pearson, director for global energy and natural resources at Eurasia Group, said by phone from Brussels today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-21/eu-bid-to-cut-russian-gas-amid-ukraine-crisis-sidelines-climate.html
ignore the rhetoric – coal is still king:
14 Feb: Bloomberg: Coal Burns Brighter as Utilities Switch From Natural Gas
By Mario Parker and Naureen S. Malik
Predictions of coal’s demise in the U.S. may be greatly exaggerated.
Natural gas prices at a four-year high have utilities shifting to coal to generate 4.519 million megawatt-hours a day, the most since 2011, government data show. Within three years, coal’s share of power production could climb to 40.3 percent from about 39 percent last year, while gas’s share will probably drop to 27 percent from 27.5, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said…
The U.S. is poised to emit the most carbon dioxide in three years, undermining President Barack Obama’s efforts to reduce pollution and steer utilities away from the fossil fuel.
“The idea of coal disappearing is not an effective climate change policy,” said John Thompson, an analyst at the Boston-based Clean Air Task Force. “Coal use is growing.” …
Thompson said implementing technology that allows utilities to capture carbon is better than trying to eliminate coal because other countries are increasing use of the fuel…
Dethroning Oil
Coal is the fastest growing energy source in the world, rising 2.3 percent a year through 2018, and poised to dethrone crude oil as the largest source by 2020, the International Energy Agency said in its December Medium-Term Coal Market Report. \
That’s being driven mostly by China, “where coal is powering an industrial revolution,” Laszlo Varro, head of the agency’s gas, coal and power markets, said in a Jan. 29 presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The fuel is also experiencing a resurgence in Europe as the continent’s economic woes increase its appetite for cheap electricity, he said…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-13/coal-burns-brighter-as-utilities-switch-from-natural-gas.html
J. Philip Peterson says:
March 21, 2014 at 12:22 pm
“I thought Michael Mann had lost all credibility as a climate scientist.
How come he is allowed to write an article in Scientific American?”
Birds of a feather.
SciAm lost all credibility a LOOONG time ago.
Did anyone see the Brit papers today claiming that climate scientists agree that climate change is cause by humans, end of story? Yet again !
Robert Bissett says:
March 21, 2014 at 2:20 pm
“How is this different from an ice age I wondered. ”
No different. We ARE in an ice age. We are in a pause between two glaciations.
Ice age is when there is ice at the poles.
Mann’s scary linear projection lines should start ~1945 when CO2 emissions took off.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/5/56/Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type.png
The ‘PreindustrialTemperature’ line should be the average temperature of this interglacial (so far).
Henry Galt says:
March 21, 2014 at 12:42 pm
“During the day time, an arid desert in the tropics where there is less atmospheric water vapour, the surface temperature is higher, and the near surface air warms more than in a humid land location in the tropics.So what happened to the supposed radiative advantage to the surface from the greenhouse effect of the water vapour?”
Good question. It doesn’t add up. I’ve come to the conclusion that radiative exchanges are simply not dominant.
I started giving it some serious thought last weekend, and expressed my thoughts here. Briefly, my most accessible analogy is to a car engine and its cooling system.
The radiator is a mass of metal which stands between the engine and the cooler outside air. As such, it must block radiation from the heated engine (as well as incoming air for surface convection). Based on those facts alone, one might conclude that the radiator makes the engine run hotter than it otherwise would.
But, of course, that is not nearly the whole story. Heat-carrying coolant is continually being pumped through the engine to the radiator, where the extensive area exposed to the outside allows that heat to be efficiently dissipated. The net result is, by design, cooling of the engine.
The GHGs in the atmosphere are the planet’s radiator. They take heat transferred to them, and radiate it into space. But, surface radiation is not the only means of getting the heat up to them. Evaporation and convection are two very powerful means of heat transfer, which allows heat to be channeled to the upper troposphere for efficient radiation to space, just as the automobile radiator prevents direct radiation and convection from the surface of the engine, but receives heat from the engine via pipes and hoses and radiates it away.
Mann has been getting such a butt kicking here lately that I had a bout of compassion and sent him a supply of “Preparation H for the Climate Apocalypse” to ease the pain.
Hansen WAS right after all.
http://i29.photobucket.com/albums/c274/richardlinsleyhood/HansenUpdated_zpsb8693b6e.png
We ARE tiptoeing down a dotted line, it just turned out it is Scenario C that’s all 🙂
Oldseadog says:
What happened to the graph showing “increase in temperature due to increase of CO2″ being a logorithmic curve?
This is one chart, here is another.
They clearly show why there is no measurable effect from CO2 at current concentrations: almost all the warming effect from CO2 happened in the first 20 ppmv. Now, it would require a lot more CO2 to have any measurable effect.
This is an important contribution to the political debate about climate. Rod Stuart has made the following comment over at Jo Nova’s site and his FOI requests show that no Australian politician of any of the major parties have received any scientific confirmation of either AGW or CAGW.
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/03/bloggies-voting-closes-late-sunday-your-chance-to-promote-skeptical-science-blogs/#comment-1407668
It is all about power, it is all about control, it was never about the climate.
Jordan says:
March 21, 2014 at 1:46 pm
milodonharlani says:
March 21, 2014 at 1:30 pm
I did wonder about volcanic activity, but a couple of things leave doubt.
One thing is that the region in that WUWT article doesn’t seem to match well with the region of the highest temperature anomaly.
Another is the absence of reporting of recent events … surely there would be a lot of seismic activity showing up around Svalbard?
But still curious to hear if anybody here can shed some light on it
—————————————————————————————
The lack of EMIC waves perhaps or not?
Simultaneous traveling convection vortex events and Pc1 wave bursts at cusp latitudes observed in Arctic Canada and Svalbard
J. L. Posch1,*, M. J. Engebretson1, A. J. Witte1,2, D. L. Murr1,
M. R. Lessard3, M. G. Johnsen4, H. J. Singer5 M. D. Hartinger6
18 OCT 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50604/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false
…”””We have also documented unusually low EMIC wave activity during this deep solar minimum interval, and we attribute the low occurrence percentage of combined events in this study to this minimum.”””…
Multi-instrument observations from Svalbard of a traveling convection vortex, electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave burst, and proton precipitation associated with a bow shock instability
M. J. Engebretson1, T. K. Yeoman2, K. Oksavik3,4,
F. Søraas3,4, F. Sigernes5, J. I. Moen5,6,
M. G. Johnsen7, V. A. Pilipenko1,8, J. L. Posch1,
M. R. Lessard9, B. Lavraud10,11, M. D. Hartinger12,
L. B. N. Clausen6,13, T. Raita14, C. Stolle15
6 JUN 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50291/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false
Abstract
…”””[1] An isolated burst of 0.35 Hz electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves was observed at four sites on Svalbard from 0947 to 0954 UT 2 January 2011, roughly 1 h after local noon. This burst was associated with one of a series of ~50 nT magnetic impulses observed at the northernmost stations of the IMAGE magnetometer array. Hankasalmi SuperDARN radar data showed a west-to-east (antisunward) propagating vortical ionospheric flow in a region of high spectral width ~ 1–2° north of Svalbard, confirming that this magnetic impulse was the signature of a traveling convection vortex. Ground-based observations of the Hα line at Longyearbyen indicated proton precipitation at the same time as the EMIC wave burst, and NOAA-19, which passed over the west coast of Svalbard between 0951 and 0952, observed a clear enhancement of ring current protons at the same latitude. Electron precipitation from this same satellite indicated that the EMIC burst was located on closed field lines, but near to the polar cap boundary. We believe these are the first simultaneous observations of EMIC waves and precipitating energetic protons so near to the boundary of the dayside magnetosphere”””…
From the graphic above, Michael E Mann doth pontificate:
Ironically, the reduction in coal burning needed to lower CO2 emissions also lessens aerosols, sending temperatures across the danger line
So wait…he’s saying if we burn LESS coal it will get WARMER?
Sandi says:
March 21, 2014 at 3:28 pm
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Very interesting video!
‘Julie Brigham-Grette presents Lake El’ gygytgyn Research’
7:10 – “One of the most astounding things about this [sediment] record is the fact that we’re seeing intervals in the Arctic back through the last few million years that are much, much warmer than anyone expected.”
10:16 – “What this shows is that through the interval stage 11 the climate was in fact 8 degrees [Celsius] warmer than present in summer.”
Good comments on modeling. Bumblebees can’t fly.
http://www.snopes.com/science/bumblebees.asp