UPDATE: 3/5/14 Chipotle spokesman walks back the claim, see below.
Chipotle warns global warming may force it to stop serving guacamole.
Yes, that’s an actual headline. Too bad they didn’t do a little research first.
This story is from the excitable kids at Climate Progress, who are paid to make you worry about these things:
The guacamole operation at Chipotle is massive. The company uses, on average, 97,000 pounds of avocado every day to make its guac — which adds up to 35.4 million pounds of avocados every year. And while the avocado industry is fine at the moment, scientists are anticipating drier conditions due to climate change, which may have negative effects on California’s crop. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years. [Climate Progress]
No comment so far from Taco Bell, Chevy’s Fresh Mex, Del Taco, El Toro and many other Mexican food restaurant chains in the USA. (Added: for our overseas readers, this is Chipotle, apparently the news about the Guacamole crisis wasn’t important enough for their press feed)
But if the crisis worsens, expect Guacamole smugglers to fill in the vacuum.
Oh, wait, most avocados don’t come from California:
![avocado1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/avocado11.gif)
Mexico accounts for half of world trade
Nearly half of all internationally traded avocados are from Mexico (table 2). It came to nearly 500,000 tonnes valued at 0.9 billion dollars in 2012. Export increases every year, but the increase from 2010 to 2011 was very substantial. Three quarters of Mexican export is directed at their northern neighbour, the USA. Last year, 370,000 tonnes of Mexican produce went across their northern border. Japan bought a lot more Mexican avocados last year than previously: 50,000 tonnes. Canada is their third largest customer. Mexico exports about 30% of its production (table 3).
Number two producer Chile brings 30% of its production to the international trade, with the USA as their most important customer as well, and the Netherlands as number two on that list (table 4). Peru exports 40% of its production, most of it to Europe, with the Netherlands as their most important customer, followed by Spain. 2012 showed growth again, after export remained stable in the years leading up (table 5). Israel is a relatively small producer, but almost the entire harvest (90%) is sold abroad. After a big drop in export in 2011, 2012 saw an increase in export, namely 60,000 tonnes. France, the Netherlands and Russia are important customers (table 8). The Dutch (re)export is mainly aimed at Germany, but Sweden also buys a lot. France, Denmark and Norway are also important customers for the Dutch trade (table 6a).
USA biggest importer, Netherlands second
The United States are by far the biggest avocado importers. The 500,000 tonnes mark was passed in 2012. The majority comes from neighbouring Mexico (table 14). The Netherlands are the world’s second largest import market. Import statistics show that it came to 96,000 tonnes valued at 190 million dollars in 2012. South Africa, Chile and Peru each supplied just under 20,000 tonnes last year. The South African import shows quite a few fluctuations from year to year. Chile and Peru provide more each year (table 15a). According to South African and Peruvian export statistics more is shipped to the Netherlands than (Dutch) import statistics show. This is partially explained by trade going to the Netherlands through other countries, such as France, Spain and Germany. As an importer, France is almost as important as the Netherlands. This country imported 95,000 tonnes in 2012. Spain is their most important supplier, followed by Peru and Israel (table 15b).
Source: http://www.freshplaza.com/article/110214/Avocado-market-still-growing,-Holland-plays-big-role-in-it
h/t to Tom Nelson for the CP link and Steve Milloy for the fun title.
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BOTTOM LINE:
1. This is mostly a marketing ploy by Chipotle i.e. “come get now what you may not be able to get later”.
2. If it ever comes to pass that Chipotle can’t get “locally sourced produce” (I wonder how they get Avocados at the Chipotle in Portland, Maine?) they’ll opt to have them imported in order to keep customers coming in. Profit rules those decisions.
3. added 3/5/14 Told ya so:
Chipotle stirred up the media and guacamole lovers with news that it could “suspend” guacamole from its menu due to global warming.
But a restaurant spokesman tells the Los Angeles Times: “This is way overblown.”
I make my own guacamole-always better than the processed rubbish.On a bagel with cream cheese, smoked salmon and dill-yum. In days of old when the climate was warmer, it was also wetter. The water evaporated off the oceans is going to drop, unless you believe the “sky is falling” scenario that the water vapour will dissociate in to hydrogen and oxygen with the hydrogen floating off in to outer space. A bit of warming will be great for avocados. Perhaps we should just eat all those chicken-littles with the abundant avocado.
Richard Howes says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:39 pm
Wait, it’s hotter in Mexico than in California. When California gets hotter, it will be like Mexico. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory should get a huge grant to see if you can grow avocado’s in Mexico. Problem solved!
Amen!
…then pack up and head for the Perini Ranch …enjoy the steaks while you can. A new climate change study on eating steak claims that….
http://store.periniranch.com/steakhouse/
Well it is an old study, it was published in 2006. Since then the temperature has changed by….rounding off to nearest 1/10 of a degree…. nothing.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2006
We should doa weekly update for a different fruit or vegetable each week to show the actual crop yields – virtually every single crop world wide is increasing due to advanced farming and increased carbon dioxide.
I am sorry, but if the only “Mexican” you have had is Chipotle, you are deprived. They are barely better than Taco Bell. In other words, if they go belly up, the world of Mexican food will be the better.
Given their lack of intelligence and propensity to hysteria, perhaps it is for the better.
highflight56433 says: March 4, 2014 at 4:04 pm [ … ] “It may be that I am wearing some avocados I ate at Kihei Beach, Maui and now have a lasting lust for such. ”
I cannot too highly recommend Sushi Koiso in Kihei, but I do not recall avocado in any of his sushi negri. When I was there a year ago itamae was full of the recent visit by the Japanese Foreign Minister to his sixteen seat store front. You must visit.
Another addition to the list of 1001 disasters threatened by AGW.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a hot stock–it has doubled in the past 15 months and hit a new high today. Maybe, since it has “jumped the shark,” now would be a time to short it (?).
What? Global warming ate my guac?
Sorry Janice M. I posted my comment before reading everyone else comments. It was such an obvious one. I will note that California grows a more cold tolerant avocado than Mexico does.
Layne says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:35 pm
I know it’s junk food, but I prefer Chili’s anyway
Chili’s have (I hope they still do) these “southern egg rolls”. They told me they buy them frozen from a supplier (not sure if they mentioned the name). Those things are great! I want the recipe 🙂
Lamont T. !
Do you realize how rare you are? Thank you, so much, for that. Oh, and OF COURSE, apology (not really necessary, but, boy was that a sight for oft-ignored eyes!) accepted with pleasure.
Janice
The trouble with outright lies is about 50% of people believe them, no matter how trivial the effect. I’m not worried this stupid article simply adds more sand to the AGW foundation……
Chipotle and other leftist corporate shills needs to boycotted. This is insane that Chipolte foists its leftist eco-radical bs on us. And by the way, avocados are cheaper then ever now. They are often 48 cents each at Sprouts, sometimes 3 for a buck. They used to be a lot more! Chipolte can get them even cheaper. They are just choosing to spew their leftist hooey on us. Stay away from their restaurants.
And, thanks Janice!
@Eric Simpson
I agree fully. I will never again purchase any products from delusional corporate sellouts such as Chipotle who apparently prefer to use their time making stupid press releases versus actually improving their products…
Right Frank, they are nothing less than corporate sellouts, choosing to tick off half or more of the population with their inanities. Anyway, as I said on Goddard: the latest prediction of doom is that in 30 years restaurants won’t be able to afford to have avocados in their guacamole. Instead it will be a mixture of trans-fats and soylent green! We are do oooh mmm duh!
So, McDonalds won’t be able to get avocadoes? Yeah, sure.
Chipotle fear that they might run out of avocado, but it is clear that they have an unlimited supply of stupid.
I am sorry but the guacalypse article cannot compare to the giant viruses article. Josh must see the article about giant viruses. HE MUST! And those movie guys in Japan are probably already writing the script! It will be a whole new genre of B movies about giant whatevers due to global warming! The Arctic melts and unleashes both a giant dinosaur and a giant virus that battle it out over New York City!
…which of course, is underwater.
So the Netherlands import 96,000 tons of avocadoes and export 79,000 tons and do not produce any significant quantity themselves. Is their currency the Euro or the Avo?
Hmmm I wonder if this has happened in the past. Do we have any paleo-Guacamole studies? (peer reviewed only). Or could someone please drill into the nearest avocado tree and let us know what the rings reveal….
@ur momisugly Alan Robertson says:
March 4, 2014 at 2:59 pm
“Guac’s one thing, but pales in importance to tequila, which was an apparent influence on this report.”
+++++++++++++
@ur momisugly James the Elder says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:00 pm
“How long before: 5% of the world’s population consumes 47% of the guacamole? We must attain guacamole independence.”
Y’all ROCK! But…I prefer Mezcal, which ain’t to say I don’t love tequila…and if you read the charts, I think 4% of the world’s population is ALREADY eatin’ 46% of the guac!
@ur momisugly Janice Moore:
“WHO CARES. Just eat LOTS of guacamole (with chipotle peppers in it) and have a tall, frosty, salt-dipped-rimmed, glass of Rose’s Lime Juice in soda (no alcohol needed to get Margarita flavor).”
I usually toss habanero chilies in mine along with the chipotles. For myself, I use a 2-to-1 ratio: two habanero chilies to one guacamole nut. Two guacamole nuts, half or a skosh more Spanish onion, coupla cloves garlic, sal y pimiento al sabor, jugo de lima (I’ve heard of up to a quarter cup! GAH! Tooo wet!), as much of a bunch of cilantro as will still fit (hey, I can get it ALL in there!) and it qualifies as hot sauce! On the other hand, for my more rational moments, I’ll remember it’s two guacamole nuts to one habanero chili, and then people without my highly developed palate can enjoy it, too—
7;->
Hey, food that don’t bite back is boring!
P.S.: Never been inside a Chipotles, and only been in a Taco Bell once (and never any of it’s analogs), and that was over 30 years ago. Once upon a time, I used to spend every other weekend almost in Mexico in the Guaymas/San Carlos/Bahia de Kino area of Sonora. Would always stop at this little flyblown taquieria in Hermosillo…They never had guacamole there, but the tacos were to die for, and the salsa!
Chipotle’s et al: ersatz Tex-Mex corporate/franchise h3ll! “Sustainability” is a fad for them, and they’ll “support” it as long as they think it’ll help them make a buck of the marks, like the rest of the corporations who are trying to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs we like to call the United States in order to maximize their profits today, heck with tomorrow. Anyone remember a place called Easter Island? I highly recommend Jared Diamond’s “Collapse”.
Greedy, short-sighted cretins. I’d love to boycott them…but I’ve never been, and never would, so unfortunately, in my case, it’s not costing them anything.
But my word on it: ANYONE can make better guac than any commercial slime you can find out there, almost without trying. AND with no additives, so it’s better for you.
I’m seriously considering adding a Guacamology degree to my resume.
I really like the idea of a truly green degree! And it will come in handy, when the chips are down… };>)
Does anyone suspect the influence of the Obamas here? FLOTUS is hyperactive in food fascism, and POTUS is flogging his climate chops again now that he is exposed as a failed President. So, while dressed in AGW cammoflauge, she runs the avocado advocacy up the flagpole for the green-shirted followers to salute