UPDATE: 3/5/14 Chipotle spokesman walks back the claim, see below.
Chipotle warns global warming may force it to stop serving guacamole.
Yes, that’s an actual headline. Too bad they didn’t do a little research first.
This story is from the excitable kids at Climate Progress, who are paid to make you worry about these things:
The guacamole operation at Chipotle is massive. The company uses, on average, 97,000 pounds of avocado every day to make its guac — which adds up to 35.4 million pounds of avocados every year. And while the avocado industry is fine at the moment, scientists are anticipating drier conditions due to climate change, which may have negative effects on California’s crop. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years. [Climate Progress]
No comment so far from Taco Bell, Chevy’s Fresh Mex, Del Taco, El Toro and many other Mexican food restaurant chains in the USA. (Added: for our overseas readers, this is Chipotle, apparently the news about the Guacamole crisis wasn’t important enough for their press feed)
But if the crisis worsens, expect Guacamole smugglers to fill in the vacuum.
Oh, wait, most avocados don’t come from California:
![avocado1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/avocado11.gif)
Mexico accounts for half of world trade
Nearly half of all internationally traded avocados are from Mexico (table 2). It came to nearly 500,000 tonnes valued at 0.9 billion dollars in 2012. Export increases every year, but the increase from 2010 to 2011 was very substantial. Three quarters of Mexican export is directed at their northern neighbour, the USA. Last year, 370,000 tonnes of Mexican produce went across their northern border. Japan bought a lot more Mexican avocados last year than previously: 50,000 tonnes. Canada is their third largest customer. Mexico exports about 30% of its production (table 3).
Number two producer Chile brings 30% of its production to the international trade, with the USA as their most important customer as well, and the Netherlands as number two on that list (table 4). Peru exports 40% of its production, most of it to Europe, with the Netherlands as their most important customer, followed by Spain. 2012 showed growth again, after export remained stable in the years leading up (table 5). Israel is a relatively small producer, but almost the entire harvest (90%) is sold abroad. After a big drop in export in 2011, 2012 saw an increase in export, namely 60,000 tonnes. France, the Netherlands and Russia are important customers (table 8). The Dutch (re)export is mainly aimed at Germany, but Sweden also buys a lot. France, Denmark and Norway are also important customers for the Dutch trade (table 6a).
USA biggest importer, Netherlands second
The United States are by far the biggest avocado importers. The 500,000 tonnes mark was passed in 2012. The majority comes from neighbouring Mexico (table 14). The Netherlands are the world’s second largest import market. Import statistics show that it came to 96,000 tonnes valued at 190 million dollars in 2012. South Africa, Chile and Peru each supplied just under 20,000 tonnes last year. The South African import shows quite a few fluctuations from year to year. Chile and Peru provide more each year (table 15a). According to South African and Peruvian export statistics more is shipped to the Netherlands than (Dutch) import statistics show. This is partially explained by trade going to the Netherlands through other countries, such as France, Spain and Germany. As an importer, France is almost as important as the Netherlands. This country imported 95,000 tonnes in 2012. Spain is their most important supplier, followed by Peru and Israel (table 15b).
Source: http://www.freshplaza.com/article/110214/Avocado-market-still-growing,-Holland-plays-big-role-in-it
h/t to Tom Nelson for the CP link and Steve Milloy for the fun title.
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BOTTOM LINE:
1. This is mostly a marketing ploy by Chipotle i.e. “come get now what you may not be able to get later”.
2. If it ever comes to pass that Chipotle can’t get “locally sourced produce” (I wonder how they get Avocados at the Chipotle in Portland, Maine?) they’ll opt to have them imported in order to keep customers coming in. Profit rules those decisions.
3. added 3/5/14 Told ya so:
Chipotle stirred up the media and guacamole lovers with news that it could “suspend” guacamole from its menu due to global warming.
But a restaurant spokesman tells the Los Angeles Times: “This is way overblown.”
… and here I thought it was just cheap TV preachers who spouted this crazy stuff.
Hi, Alan! Hurrah, we ARE on speaking terms. (whew)
Well, perhaps Joe just never had really good guacamole. We have lots of great Mexican restaurants around here (and lots of great Mexican-Americans, too!), so we get the best.
HAGGIS?!!! I KNEW a Rrrrrobertson must be Scottish. And I was right, hm? Now THAT is a dish that should be stopped at the border — of southern Scotland!
Next, it will be Boston Cream Pie, German Chocolate Bars and Cheese Cake. Where will this madness end? What we need is a good five cent Cigar.
Ah, the good old days when the common man just needed a Man who wore the Star, the Big White Texaco Star and people flying out of the sky and landing in a Hertz Rent-A-Car.
Gone crazy is what has happen.
Paul
Never mind the fact that they’re getting excited about a study from 7 YEARS AGO, based on climate models that were worse at predicting future temperatures than more recent ones.
Does that 40% decline in California avocados come from a predicted 4 C temperature increase? (Rather than 2C?) I’ll bet it does. It’s much more likely there will be about a 1 to 1.5 C increase, if that.
I’m confused, aren’t avacado’s a tropical plant that thrive in warm temperatures? And wouldn’t increasing temperatures actually increase the available real estate for growing avacado’s?
I know it’s junk food, but I prefer Chili’s anyway. With (cold) records from the 1800s being broken, I’m hoping for a flood of Northeasterners to my Florida properties.
I wouldn’t care, guacamole is vile and disgusting withslimy texture and awful flavor.
Avocado trees move uphill?
Avocado trees move north?
My avocados are in a warmer clime than the ones in California and they are MASSIVE, so there. Heh heh.We had 3 trees but 1 had to be chopped down after 30 years due to poor crop ’caused’ by global warming. I put another seedling in its place and it appears to my lying eyes to be thriving! We must act now!
Mr. Lamont T. — AHEM! You, (like most people, lol), did not read my comment at 3:13, did you? (smile) — it’s a matter of irrigation, not air temperature, I believe. The Envirostalinists l1e and say that it is heat that is causing CA farmers to not have enough water when it is actually the Envirostalinist policies which cause that lack.
Chipotle is just trying to generate news/hype/PR by jumping on the green bandwagon.
Being that avocado’s are tropical fruits and the tropics have not experienced “climate change” what are the some of the more likely causes of avocado shortages?
Hint I’m in the business.
1/ More people than ever are consuming avocados, guacamole and avocado oil.
2/ A few years ago my company lost over a million dollars (in estimated profit) because some avocado’s were contaminated (salmonella). We are slowly building our avocado business back no thanks to over the top media coverage and public perception.
3/ Strained US Mexico relations have produced produce shortages. In December (2013) the US stopped importing from some Mexican States over security concerns. This year Mexico’s leadership tightened up on avocado shipments.
4/ With new trucking restrictions on driver’s hours, as well as, fuel costs everything we eat is more expensive. Wait until cafe standards hit the trucking industry.
Other than that the avocado business is booming!
After the Dems finish shutting down the central valley to save a sardine that no one eats, I suppose it IS possible CA will have no avocados. They’ll just hafta buy from Mexico like everyone else.
Avocados are a weed tree in Hawaii.
A sardine that on one eats? Barbara Streisand and *I* will eat them, have eaten them, dried on the beach. In HS they were worth a bag of potato chips in trade, a single beach dried sardine.
Lawrence Livermore lab predicts a dip in dips? wow. I give these folks a self-pity/navel-gazing rating of 8
SHHHHH!!! Everybody just be quiet. Maybe Chipotle will just close in anticipation of this Avocado Extinction and save us from having to hear there Climate Change Induced histrionics anymore.
Guacamole is smashed avocado. It’s ok. Folks like it. But a slice of avocado, salted, on a sour dough slice? Heaven. Even better with an heirloom tomato…
Rising seas? Meh. Hotter temps? Meh. More extreme weather? Meh. Troubles in the avocado industry? I demand immediate action! 😉 And a half-teaspoon of olive oil per avocado will make the taste and texture of guacamole mas fina!
The folk-named ‘Alligator Pear’ goes well with any of the fermented & distilled agave products (even the one’s with worms at the bottom of the bottle) : )
John
@ur momisugly Fabi — Italians know what really matters in life!
Indeed, Janice!
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cartoonasaur,
There is a style of guacamole that has mostly chunked avocado instead of smashed, I prefer the chunked style.
Good stuff.
Avocado slices do well in sushi too . . . .
John
“IMHO the place has all the ambiance of a prison cafeteria – Anthony”
Well, since you have a handle on prison cafeteria, maybe some added info? There might be some mannly mann who will soon enjoy such ambiance…imagine that.
As for the article, pray for climate change of the drier sort in that warmer means the tropics move both north and south. Something the warmistas are not willfully considering.
I am looking forward to growing my own avocados — out doors. It may be that I am wearing some avocados I ate at Kihei Beach, Maui and now have a lasting lust for such. http://kiheibeachresorts.com. The size of watermelons I might add. The chocolate ice cream was good too. It comes in half gallons…. 🙂 ….
Think I just saw some photos of Niagara frozen good. How pretty.
Thanks janice and Doug. I was aware of the chipotle pepper but couldn’t quite see how they’d be making press releases (although anything’s possible in a warmoist World) 😀
As for guacamole, I’m sorry but that’s a waste of good avocados and good tacos. Save the avocados for salad (prawn, chicken and salmon are all good), and add a side order of tacos with chilli cheese dip. No taste-free slime involved 😉
south park chipotleaway worked huh?
And since the study was from December 2006, there should be plenty of avocado crop data by now to verify if the prediction is accurate.
Year Acres Tons per Acre
2002‐03 59,500 2.82
2003‐04 60,500 3.57
2004‐05 62,000 2.44
2005‐06 62,100 4.83
2006‐07 65,000 2.03
2007‐08 66,000 2.5
2008‐09 65,000 1.35
2009‐10 58,500 4.7
2010‐11 52,200 2.9
2011‐12 52,200 4.43
Source: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/California_Ag_Statistics/2012cas-frt.pdf
It just so happens that 2005-2006, just before the study was published, was an unusually good year for avocados; not many problems with pests and hard freezes. I don’t see a pattern here that validates LLNL’s 2006 prediction. Does anyone else?