The Solar storm has arrived – initial impact weaker than expected

Aurora_Map_N[1]From NASA: Spaceweather: As expected, a CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Jan. 9th (around 20:00 UTC or 3 p.m. EST). Although the initial impact was weaker than expected, geomagnetic storms could still develop as Earth passes through the CME’s wake. NOAA forecasters are sticking by their prediction of a G3-class event on Jan. 9-10, which means high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

From the New Jersey Institute of Technology

With instruments in space and on earth, NJIT solar experts monitor the massive solar storm

The first powerful “X-class” solar flare of 2014, in association with another solar phenomenon, a giant cloud of solar particles known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), erupted from the sun on Tuesday, sending radiation and particles speeding toward Earth and disrupting operations on the ground.

NASA reported on Wednesday that Orbital Sciences Corp., a commercial spaceflight company on a cargo delivery mission to the International Space Station, had called off its rocket launch that day from the agency’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia because of the unusually high levels of radiation.

“This was a huge event, with the CME now classified as an R-type for its rarity, with an estimated speed much higher than we have recently seen because of the massive release of energy,” commented Andrew Gerrard, an NJIT professor of physics and deputy director of the university’s Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research. “Eruptions of this magnitude can cause circulation changes in the upper atmosphere, communications disruptions in space and on the ground, and other potential electrical anomalies. We can lose track of space craft, whose orbits can be disrupted by these in these events. It’s like driving through molasses.”

NJIT is continuing to measure the solar explosion’s impact from space with its instruments on the Van Allen Probes, NASA space craft that travel through the inner magnetosphere, and on the ground through instruments like those in the NATION Fabry-Perot systems in North America, which measure thermospheric winds and temperatures, and in systems across the Antarctic plateau that measure geomagnetic variability.

“This is a beautiful opportunity to look at how this material from the sun is injected into the radiation belts, inner magnetosphere, and upper atmosphere,” Gerrard said. “We may not see anything like this for another decade.”

NJIT’s Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research also operates the university’s Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) in California, which is home to the world’s most powerful ground-based telescope dedicated to solar research. NJIT professors at BBSO in Big Bear have obtained new and remarkably detailed photos of the Sun with the New Solar Telescope (NST).

The flare, a giant burst of radiation designated as X-class for the most intense flares, is centered over a giant sunspot AR1944 located at the center of the sun. By Wednesday, the solar radiation storm had intensified to an S3 or strong event, while the coronal mass ejection was forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10, NASA said.

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections regularly send bursts of charged particles and high energy radiation in Earth’s direction at nearly the speed of light. Upon reaching our atmosphere within minutes, solar radiation can destroy the electronic systems in satellites used in telecommunications, weather forecasting and GPS systems, among other services, as well as devices on the ground, such as transformers.

In 1989, for example, a solar storm brought down the Hydro-Quebec grid within minutes, blacking out the entire province as well as parts of the Northern United States for several hours.

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Related:

X class solar flare ejection may hit Earth with solar storm

WUWT Solar reference page

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davidxn
January 9, 2014 1:27 pm

It’s (less) worse than we thought!

January 9, 2014 1:34 pm

I would say premature as strongest part of CME still to come imo as the radiation storm (proton storm) is still strong and would drop rapidly after the main part CME arrived…it has not yet, so much more to come imo anyway!

Gil Dewart
January 9, 2014 1:42 pm

Does anybody have information about the possible physiological effects on the human body of this event? What is the role of atmospheric composition in the propagation of the particles and radiation? What about the impact on high-altitude air crews or people near the geomagnetic poles?

Doug Huffman
January 9, 2014 1:43 pm

One of the added benefits of my move, eight years ago from 32.5°N to 45.2°N, was hoped to be the Aurora Borealis, but not yet. I’ve seen glow low on the horizon but that has as often been a passing ship’s deck lights or Escanaba, Mich. as a distant aurora. I think I’ve got two more Solar Max’s yet in me.

Doug Huffman
January 9, 2014 1:57 pm

Gil Dewart says: January 9, 2014 at 1:42 pm “Does anybody have information about the possible physiological effects on the human body of this event? What is the role of atmospheric composition in the propagation of the particles and radiation? What about the impact on high-altitude air crews or people near the geomagnetic poles?”
Of this event there will be zero physiological effect on the human body. Air has a shielding radiation attenuation effect. High altitude flight normally increases radiation exposure slightly.
Please note that it is not possible to prove a statement of non-existence without examining the entire Universe of discussion – that’s where The Black Swan lurks.

Gerald Kelleher
January 9, 2014 2:10 pm

About 10 years ago I went to the geological community and pointed out that all rotating celestial objects with exposed viscous compositions display an uneven rotational gradient between Equatorial and Polar latitudes otherwise known as differential rotation,in other words,a rotating celestial object with a fluid composition doesn’t rotate as a unit.
I could point out that the Earth’s 26 mile spherical deviation between Equatorial and Polar diameters fitted neatly into differential rotation but the most important aspect of applying differential rotation to the Earth’s interior was evolutionary geology where the symmetrical generation of crust off the Mid Atlantic Ridge indicated a lag/advance mechanism for Oceanic crust formation and especially the elegant ‘S’ shape of the Ridge from Northern to Southern latitudes.
One of the nicer insights has to do with CME’s and planetary comparisons. Venus has only residual daily rotation and its evolutionary geology is restricted to volcanic activity however when CME’s strike,they act like iron filings on a paper covering a magnet in exposing the weak electromagnetic field of that planet –
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/venus-explosions_prt.htm
The Earth is protected by virtue that it has a rapid rotation,graceful but sizeable spherical deviation due to a maximum Equatorial speed of 1037.5 miles per hour ,has an active fractured surface crust that is being destroyed by the rotation of the fluid interior and perhaps the geomagnetic field created by this uneven gradient.
The response of the geological community was to throw every assertion they could find at rotation without actually handling the neat arguments which tie spherical deviation,plate tectonics and geomagnetism together using an already observed astronomical principle.
In short, CME’s are invaluable tools in the hands of a productive mind and spirit,in the wrong hands they become the usual dire ‘warnings’ and what have you.

rogerknights
January 9, 2014 2:13 pm

Gil Dewart says:
January 9, 2014 at 1:42 pm
Does anybody have information about the possible physiological effects on the human body of this event?

Paging our tin-foil-hatters!

Doug Huffman
January 9, 2014 2:20 pm

Who’s paging, Roger or Gil? I am an advocate against the Linear No Threshold hypothesis and for radiation hormesis. It is a serious issue, merely beyond the understanding of the inexperienced/non-professionals, like GMO.

January 9, 2014 2:27 pm

Radiation Hormesis: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2477686/
Abstract
Three aspects of hormesis with low doses of ionizing radiation are presented: the good, the bad, and the ugly. The good is acceptance by France, Japan, and China of the thousands of studies showing stimulation and/or benefit, with no harm, from low dose irradiation. This includes thousands of people who live in good health with high background radiation. The bad is the nonacceptance of radiation hormesis by the U. S. and most other governments; their linear no threshold (LNT) concept promulgates fear of all radiation and produces laws which have no basis in mammalian physiology. The LNT concept leads to poor health, unreasonable medicine and oppressed industries. The ugly is decades of deception by medical and radiation committees which refuse to consider valid evidence of radiation hormesis in cancer, other diseases, and health. Specific examples are provided for the good, the bad, and the ugly in radiation hormesis.

January 9, 2014 2:30 pm

Doug Huffman says:
January 9, 2014 at 2:20 pm
Great minds etc. !!11!!

Bob Weber
January 9, 2014 2:50 pm

This article just warms my heart… The sun was VERY BRIGHT today in N. Michigan. I took a lot of pictures – just amazing – couldn’t even look at the sun with sunglasses it was that bright. Anyone else notice the brightness?

January 9, 2014 2:53 pm

Thanks A. Good reporting.
I noticed the revival of sunspots in Oct-Nov-Dec ’13 (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/).
Did the Sun just had a maximum with two peaks?
I saw some Solar observers forecast just that.
The Ap index is weak though.

Alan Robertson
January 9, 2014 2:55 pm

Had to reboot my modem and router earlier this afternoon, an infrequent event which probably has noting to do with this solar flare.

Gail Combs
January 9, 2014 3:00 pm

Bob Weber says: January 9, 2014 at 2:50 pm
………….Anyone else notice the brightness?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes

Gail Combs
January 9, 2014 3:03 pm

I should have added
NEVER LOOK AT THE SUN!!!
How To View the Sun Safely

…. prolonged, direct exposure can cause permanent damage to the retina, leading to loss of vision or blindness….

Gil Dewart
January 9, 2014 3:10 pm

Thanks for the input so far, guys. Exposure to ionizing radiation increments, benign, malignant or neutral, is of interest to people in high level environments..

EO Peter
January 9, 2014 3:13 pm

“NEVER LOOK AT THE SUN!!!”
Especially NOT using stack of dark (exposed) negative photographic film! They may reduce visible light, but transmit NIR (Near Infra-Red), they are excellent low pass “on the cheap” filter for optical experiment…

Scute
January 9, 2014 3:14 pm

At 6pm (UTC) in London our electricity supply ground almost to a halt and flickered for a few seconds and then resurged. There was a loud bang in the distance and certain properties’ supplies were knocked out.
I realise it could be an ordinary power cut but it’s usually a clean cut-off, not this dramatic, death-thoes affair like you see in horror movies. It was as if there was a reverse induction for a few seconds as a wave came through and that was enough to blow the transformer up the road. Who knows- it was at work and I was just leaving.

Doug Huffman
January 9, 2014 3:25 pm

M Simon says: January 9, 2014 at 2:27 pm “Radiation Hormesis: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”
Thanks for the interesting on-point citation, with mention of an old favorite correspondent, Jim Muckerheide. I’ll respond with Sponsler and Cameron’s Nuclear shipyard worker study (1980–1988): a large cohort exposed to low-dose-rate gamma radiation
http://www.ecolo.org/documents/documents_in_english/low-dose-NSWS-shipyard.pdf
“Abstract: This paper is a summary of the 1991 Final Report of the Nuclear Shipyard Worker Study (NSWS), …” I was a datum in the NSWS (Matanoski, 1991), that found a correlation between general good health and radiation exposure.

EO Peter
January 9, 2014 3:40 pm

Tin-foil hat may not be a very good protection against nuclear radiation, in fact it may be worst if bremsstrahlung occur. Atomic nbr of aluminum is low, but tin & lead is another story.
For lover of radiation hormesis, Japan has great job opportunity w/t free exposition as a “healty” bonus…

rogerknights
January 9, 2014 3:40 pm

Doug Huffman says:
January 9, 2014 at 2:20 pm
Who’s paging [“our tin-foil-hatters”], Roger or Gil? I am an advocate against the Linear No Threshold hypothesis and for radiation hormesis. It is a serious issue, merely beyond the understanding of the inexperienced/non-professionals, like GMO.

I’m sorry, I that wasn’t aimed at you, but at any tin-foil-hatters who visit WUWT. I agree with you about the LNTH.

rogerknights
January 9, 2014 3:41 pm

Oops–I meant to outdent that last indent.

Doug Huffman
January 9, 2014 3:55 pm

EO Peter says: January 9, 2014 at 3:40 pm “… Japan has great job opportunity w/t free exposition as a “healty” bonus…[closing ellipses in the original]”
From ‘The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,’ “The best of the good is the work of Dr. Sadao Hattori (Fig. 1). He recognized the implications of radiation hormesis: “If radiation hormesis exists, our daily activities in radiation management have been extremely erroneous.” (Hattori, 1994). Following a thorough literature review, the Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industries (CRIEPI) inaugurated 15 research projects at 10 Japan universities. The resulting
research papers, published in peer reviewed journals, confirmed the radiation hormesis thesis: low dose irradiation stimulates many physiologic parameters that are consistent with damage control and improved health. Today, parts of both government and industries of Japan accepted the concept of radiation hormesis. Some health care centers and hospitals in Japan use low dose radiation therapy (Sakamoto and Myojin, 1996).
CANCER
The best of the good includes the pioneering research of Dr. K. Sakamoto (Fig. 2) and associates who showed that low dose irradiation of the torso was the most effective treatment for malignant lymphoma (Sakamoto, 1996, 1997). [ … ][emphasis DBH]”

EO Peter
January 9, 2014 4:02 pm

No doubt there is a lots of study proving the benefit, but any tin-foil-hatters would argue that there is also lots of study proving the benefit of homeopathy.

Doug Huffman
January 9, 2014 4:11 pm

Homeopathy cannot be falsified (after Popper), either in practice or principle, and thus falls on the non-sense side of the Problem of Demarcation.

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