The Week That Was: 2013-12-21 (December 21, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: • “We’re spending money that we don’t have, to solve a problem that doesn’t exist, at the behest of people we didn’t elect.” Douglas Carswell, Tory MP for Clacton, UK
Number of the Week: 80%
Please Note: There will be no TWTW on December 28. TWTW will resume on January 4, 2014
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
House of Commons: In October, the Energy and Climate Change Committee of the U.K. House of Commons requested comments on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The request included specific questions such as how robust are the conclusions, how much scope is there to questions the report’s conclusions, what areas need further effort to reduce the levels of uncertainty? This week the Committee published some of the responses.
In general, institutions such as the Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Society supported the AR5. A number of independent groups did not. Craig Idso, Bob Carter, Fred Singer, and Willie Soon submitted comments on behalf of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). The comments referenced the NIPCC reports and were severely critical of AR5. The criticisms include that the conclusions are not robust, a proper scientific investigation has not been conducted, the hypotheses are not falsifiable, the IPCC has not provided proof that recent global warming/climate change is beyond the range of natural variability, thus the IPCC has failed to meet the burden of proof that humans are the cause. Further, the IPCC ignores the work of many who disagree with its reports.
Independent climate researcher Nicholas Lewis uses the opportunity to extensively discuss the sensitivity of the climate to increasing carbon dioxide (CO2). Under a heading of “Poor experimental design and unsuitable data, Lewis asserts there are major problems with the estimates of the influence of aerosols (small particles or liquid droplets in the atmosphere that may be of natural or human origin) to include estimating the influence aerosols from global temperature data. [Since temperature data is used to estimate the influence of CO2, the influence of aerosols must be estimated separately.]
Richard Lindzen uses the opportunity to challenge the entire process. Given the destructive, expensive and corrupting nature of the proposed (or, alas, implemented) policies (as well as their demonstrable irrelevance to climate) leaves one with a disturbing view of the proposed agenda. It would appear that the privileged members of the global society regard as dogma that the rest of humanity is a blight on the planet, and all effort should be devoted to preventing their economic improvement and development.
Lindzen attaches a prior paper Falsification of climate models used in experimentation and scenario construction. The introduction in the paper underscores the major problems in the approach of the IPCC and those entities that are categorized as the climate establishment: The notion of ‘falsification’ plays a central role in science when applied to a theory which is a coherent chain of reasoning where each step depends on the preceding step. Theories frequently lead to models, but, unfortunately, climate models do not constitute a theory. Rather, the models at issue are attempts to solve the relevant equations for motion, energy, composition, etc. using numerical methods with inadequate resolution, where unresolved processes like boundary layer turbulence, convection, clouds, gravity waves, etc. are parameterized. The parameterizations are generally ad hoc devices designed to behave in a manner that is thought to be appropriate where ‘appropriate’ sometimes simply means that the parameterization is designed to compensate for obvious model problems. In addition, fundamental model inputs such as aerosol distributions and properties, solar forcing, and even the radiative forcing by important greenhouse gases are, at best, only approximate, and are sometimes almost completely unknown. In the latter case, they become little more than adjustable parameters. The problem, from the perspective of ‘falsification’ is that the resulting models get many things demonstrably wrong, but that does not mean that they get everything wrong. Thus, it is possible that though models may fail to predict something like global mean temperature over extended periods of time, they might still be right concerning the long term impact of greenhouse gases. Falsification, thus, does not simply mean showing that models fail for many things, but rather that specific aspects of the models are wrong. With respect to climate concerns, there are several aspects that are of central importance:
1) The sensitivity of global mean temperature anomaly to increasing greenhouse forcing.
2) The relation of global mean temperature anomaly to the various other features that are the current focus of much of our climate change concerns: extreme weather, sea level rise, etc.
It should be noted that the above concern models for which increases in greenhouse gases have been specified, and do not specifically concern the origins of these increases. There may be legitimate questions as to how much of the increase is due to emissions, but these are not addressed in the present context.
In short, climate science as proclaimed by the IPCC is a morass where what is scientific knowledge cannot be easily separated from speculation and what is wrong. The links to these responses and more are found under U.K. Parliament: Seeking a Common Ground.
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Enter the PNAS: The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) is publishing a special feature on climate impacts. The introductory piece starts with the fable of how blind men describe an elephant if each one can only touch a piece of it. Supposedly bringing these pieces together will illuminate us on the dire impacts from global warming/climate change. It states: By all accounts the impacts on our physical environment and society would be starkly different in our planet warmed by “just” 2ºC, by a “dangerous 4ºC, or by a “mind-boggling 6-8 ºC. The article announces the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-PIP).
The project includes more than 30 research teams from 12 countries systematically comparing state-of-the-art computer simulations of climate change impacts on a broad range of sectors. The effort is coordinated by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany whose director is Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, a co-author of several of the articles, including the one quoted above.
The first article on water scarcity gives a flavor of what can be expected. “Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 ºC above present (approximately 2.7 ºC above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources…” [Boldface added]
In short, speculation from computer models that have not been validated is called knowledge. As John Christy emphasized last week, all groups of models overestimate the warming trends over the tropics by some 2 to 5 times. Rather than undergoing the difficult, but rewarding, task of validating a global climate model, the new effort will just add to the morass. See links under Lowering Standards – A PNAS Special Feature.
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Oscillations: German scientists H. Luedecke and C.O. Weiss had an interesting post on Watts Up With That in which they assert that 2 separate cycles can account for virtually all the global temperature change since about 1750. The cycles are the 65 year cycle called the Atlantic/Pacific oscillation (AMO/PDO) and a 200+ year cycle of solar activity. Based on their analysis the authors state the maximum warming influence of doubling of atmospheric CO2 would be 0.1° to 0.2° (C?). If correct, this renders the entire global warming/climate change apparatus obsolete. The historic part of the work was published by Climate of the Past.
Anthony Watts urges caution when considering the claim. All too often, scrupulous work turns out to be a curve fitting exercise. A tight statistical fit does not need to apply into the future.
In correspondence, Apollo scientist Harold Doiron said he found an approximately 62 year cycle in the surface temperature data published by the Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT4). Starting in 1850, the HadCRUT4 is a shorter data set than the central European one used by the German scientists. Doiron is focusing on an upper bound analysis on the maximum possible warming impact from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, which he estimates is about 1.5-1.6 ºC, or at the lower end of the range published by the IPCC of 1.5-4.5 ºC. Doiron is circulating his work among The Right Climate Stuff research team and hopes to publish it early next year. Would PNAS publish such an upper bound analysis after publishing statements such as: society would be starkly different in our planet warmed by “just” 2ºC, by a “dangerous 4ºC, or by a “mind-boggling 6-8 ºC?
The US Global Change Research Program has a budget in excess of $2 Billion, yet US government funded scientists have failed to perform an upper bound analysis. That retired scientists such as Doiron are doing this needed work speaks volumes on the quality of government funded climate science. TWTW will discuss Doiron’s critical work when it is finished. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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How Low Can NOAA Go? This week NOAA announced that, globally, November 2013 was the hottest November in 134 years of record keeping. A quick look at the monthly atmospheric temperatures published by the University of Alabama at Huntsville shows this claim is false.
NOAA and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) have repeatedly lowered historic US temperature records (such as the 1930s) so their pronouncements about temperature history cannot be accepted. Writing in ICECAP, following his amusing poem, Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics states what he thinks of NOAA’s latest. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up, Measurement Issues, and Questioning the Orthodoxy
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EPA: John Beale, a senior regulator at EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation, which develops policies and regulations regarding air pollution and global warming/climate change, was sentenced to prison for theft of government property and impersonating a CIA officer. How he bilked the EPA for years, including under the current Administrator, is fascinating reading.
Beale’s dishonesty should not be ascribed to EPA employees in general. However, the agency has developed a cult-like mission of regulation, without ever questioning the scientific basis for said regulations. This started under the first Administrator, William Ruckelshaus, who banned DDT on the claim it causes cancer in humans without adequate scientific evidence. It is doubtful that Beale’s conduct will serve to improve the attitudes at the EPA. See Article # 3 and links under EPA and other Regulators on the March
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Stiff Upper Lip: Last week TWTW commented that the UK Climate Change Committee insists that the UK continue its disastrous energy policy, which is driving up costs to those who can afford it the least. Writing in the Mail, David Rose reports that four of the nine-person Climate Change Committee, official watchdog that dictates green energy policy, are, or were until recently, being paid by firms that benefit from committee decisions. It is easier to keep a stiff upper lip when being well-paid. See link under Questioning European Green.
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Science and Religion: As discussed in last week’s TWTW, it has become fashionable among some politicians and climate alarmists to question the religious attitudes of skeptics. SEPP Board Member and Ph.D. in physics from MIT, Tom Sheahen writes why he finds nothing incompatible between religion and science. See Article # 1.
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Additions and Corrections: Reader Richard Karpinski pointed out missing critical word: “In general, the models over-estimated the observed temperatures trends by 2 to 5 times.” Dennis Ambler brought up the work he did on the CFC story which was published by SPPI. It can be found at: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/another_day_another_dollar_cfcs_and_the_un.pdf
TWTW always appreciates additions and corrections. Thank you.
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Number of the Week: 80%. In its early release summary of the Annual Energy Outlook 2014, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that fossil fuels will continue to provide 80%, or more, of US primary energy consumption to 2040. Renewables (except biofuels) will provide an estimated 10% in 2040, up from 8% now. The wind, solar, etc. industries are not happy with the report. It is refreshing to read a report that is not overly influenced by the administration and political trends. EIA apparently realizes that unreliable, expensive electricity is abhorrent to consumers.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Faith within Science
By Thomas P. Sheahen, American Thinker, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/12/faith_within_science.html
2. Hunger Games and Climate Games
By Charles Battig, Virginia Free Citizen, Dec 15, 2013
http://virginiafreecitizen.com/2013/12/15/hunger-games-climate-games/
3. John Beale’s EPA
An amazing fraud by an architect of government climate policies.
Editorial, WSJ, Dec 19, 2013
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Redditt went and Diddit: Critics blast Reddit over climate-change skeptic ban
By Adam Shaw, ICECAP, Dec 19, 2013
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Claim: Solar, AMO, & PDO cycles combined reproduce the global climate of the past
By H. Luedecke and C.O.Weiss, WUWT, Dec 17, 2013
Celebrated Physicist Calls IPCC Summary ‘Deeply Unscientific’
By Donna Laframboise NFC, Dec 20, 2013
Whither went the warmer weather?
17 years, 3 months with no global warming
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Dec 16, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/16/whither-went-the-warmer-weather/
Defending the Orthodoxy
2014 Is Key to Fighting Climate Change
By Ned Helme, Real Clear Energy, Dec 16, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2013/12/16/2014_is_key_to_fighting_climate_change.html
Last-minute deals kept alive the hope that a global effort could prevent what the New York Times called “a ruinous rise in temperatures” caused by air pollution.
[SEPP Comment: Every year since 2009 has been called a key year for this declining effort.]
Decarbonizing our future
No question carbon released in the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to climate change. Sid Morrison and K.C. Golden, who disagree on energy strategy, agree on this: we must decarbonize our energy system.
By Sid Morrison and K.C. Golden, Seattle Times, Dec 15, 2013 [H/t Tom Haywood.]
http://seattletimes.com/html/opinion/2022458489_guestkcgoldensidmorrisonclimatechange16xml.html
[SEPP Comment: Claiming that increase CO2 concentration is disrupting our climate is simple physics is false on its face.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Unveil the Truth About Global Warming | Commentary
By H. Leighton Steward, Roll Call, Dec 19, 2013
Al Gore, Soothsayer
Editorial, Washington Times, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/dec/16/editorial-al-gore-soothsayer/
10 Headlines Show Why Global Warming Alarm Is Bunk
Editorial, IBD, Dec 17, 2013
A Visit From ‘Saint Joe’
By Joe Bastardi, ICECAP, Dec 18, 2013
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/a_visit_from_saint_joe1/
[SEPP Comment: A needed bit of humor.]
AGW Science’s Constant Appeals To Authority Only Confirm Its Total Fallacy
On Consensus
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Dec 18, 2013
Climate Scientist Blasts “Ruthless”, Dangerous And “Dictatorial” German Climate Science That Bullies And Silences Dissent
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 17, 2013
Global Warming Gone AWOL
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Dec 20, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/12/global_warming_gone_awol.html
IPCC Called a ‘Global Thinker of 2013′
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Dec 14, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/12/14/ipcc-called-a-global-thinker-of-2013/
Luke Warming: Pan European Networks Interview With Benny Peiser
Pan European Networks speaks to the director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation about the findings and implications of the IPCC’s 2013 Report
Transcript by Staff Writer, GWPF, Dec 15, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/luke-warming-pan-european-networks-interview-benny-peiser/
Lack of science literacy helps global warmists spread their gospel
By Ron Arnold, Washington Examiner, Dec 19, 2013
Social Benefits of Carbon
Can Migrating Plants Move Fast Enough to Avoid Projected Extinctions from Global Warming?
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Dec 18, 2013
“… if the Earth did warm by a significant amount, for whatever reason, the best thing that could possibly happen to the planet would be for the air’s CO2 concentration to rise concurrently, or shortly thereafter; because there would then be either little need for the vegetation of the planet to migrate to cooler regions, or the required rate of migration and/or distance of travel would be much reduced from what overly-simplistic coupled climate-biology models have suggested.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
UK’s Cameron to EU: Don’t stifle fracking with new laws
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Dec 17, 2013 [H/t Carbon Brief]
72% of Britons say living standards more important than climate change
By Charlotte Malone, Blue and Green, Dec 18, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
U.K. Parliament: Seeking a Common Ground
UK Parliament: IPCC 5th Assessment Review
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 18, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/18/uk-parliament-ipcc-5th-assessment-review/
Link to submissions: IPCC 5th Assessment Review
Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee,
Written evidence submitted by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (IPC0042) To Committee on Energy and Climate Change
By Idso, Carter, Singer, and Soon, NIPCC, Dec 17, 2013
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/WrittenEvidence.svc/EvidenceHtml/4288
Written evidence submitted by Professor Richard Lindzen (IPC0047) To Committee on Energy and Climate Change
By Richard Lindzen, Dec 17, 2013
Written evidence submitted by Nicholas Lewis (IPC0017) To Committee on Energy and Climate Change
By Nicholas Lewis, Dec 17, 2013
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/WrittenEvidence.svc/EvidenceHtml/3989
Seeking a Common Ground
Looking back…and forward
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Dec 20, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/looking-backand-forward
The blogosphere and thought leaders
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 17, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/17/the-blogosphere-and-thought-leaders/
Masters(?) of many trades
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 15, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/15/masters-of-many-trades/
Lowering Standards
A discrepancy
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 19, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/19/a-discrepancy.html
[SEPP Comment: The Royal Meteorological Society covering up the divergence between model projections and observations.]
Agency: ‘Radical action’ needed on climate
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Dec 16, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/193255-iea-says-coal-is-here-to-stay-but-change-is-needed
[SEPP Comment: The IEA is clearly a politicized entity.]
The foolishness of the overqualified
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 17, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/17/the-foolishness-of-the-overqualified.html
[SEPP Comment: The Royal Society of Arts supporting a report that: “The whole thing is intellectually vapid and so far removed from the reality of the climate debate as to suggest the author simply had nothing better to do with his time.”]
Lowering Standards – A PNAS Special Edition
Recognizing the elephant in the room: Future climate impacts across sectors
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX), Dec 19, 2013
The elephant, the blind, and the intersectoral intercomparison of climate impacts
By: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Katja Frieler, and Pavel Kabat, PNAS, No Date
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/12/13/1321791111
Water scarcity escalating due to climate change, report says
By Rebecca Shabad, The Hill, Dec 17, 2013
Link to report: Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
By Schewe, et al, PNAS, Dec 12, 2013
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/12/12/1222460110.full.pdf+html
Assessing the impact of climate change on a global scale
By Staff Writers, Nottingham UK (SPX), Dec 19, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Assessing_the_impact_of_climate_change_on_a_global_scale_999.html
Apparently, 4 degrees spells climate doom
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 16, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/16/apparently-4-degrees-spells-climate-doom/
[SEPP Comment: In a warmer world, carbon sinks will disappear. Such as those that created coal?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate Change: Federal Efforts Underway to Assess Water Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Address Adaptation Challenges
By Staff Writers, GAO, Nov 14, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-23
Questioning European Green
The fat-cat ecocrats exposed: Web of ‘green’ politicians, tycoons and power brokers who help each other benefit from billions raised on your bills
Four of nine-person Climate Change Committee, official watchdog that dictates green energy policy, are, or were until recently, being paid by firms that benefit from committee decisions
By David Rose, Mail, UK, Dec 14, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Davey’s reckless gamble
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 20, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/20/daveys-reckless-gamble.html
Eating or heating: the stark choice for many Brits as energy prices soar
In the UK thousands are struggling with rising energy costs. After last winter’s record number of deaths from cold weather, pressure is mounting on the government to force energy companies to help the most vulnerable.
By Lars Bevanger, Deutsche Welle, DE, Dec 16, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.dw.de/eating-or-heating-the-stark-choice-for-many-brits-as-energy-prices-soar/a-17298898
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The great biofuels scandal
Biofuels are inefficient, cause hunger and air pollution, and cost taxpayers billions
By Bjørn Lomborg, The Telegraph, Dec 16, 2013 [H/t David Lessmann]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/biofuels/10520736/The-great-biofuels-scandal.html
US: Science and journalism take a vacation
By Paul Driessen, Haceer, Dec 18, 2013
http://www.hacer.org/usa/?p=3433
Decarbonization Updates
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Dec 16, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/12/decarbonization-updates.html
[SEPP Comment: Analysis of U.K. Japan, and Australia of the difference between what politicians promised and what will likely to be achieved.]
Environmental concern disappears with economic instability
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 19, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/19/environmental-concern-disappears-with-economic-stability/
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate change will endanger caribou habitat
By Staff Writers, Calgary, Canada (SPX), Dec 19, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_change_will_endanger_caribou_habitat_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Settlement and hunting, not climate change, drove the caribou out of the US.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
World experiences hottest November in 134 years: US
By Staff Writers, Space Daily, Dec 17, 2013
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/World_experiences_hottest_November_in_134_years_US_999.html
Claim: November 2013 is the ‘warmest ever’ – but will the real November 2013 temperature please stand up?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 19, 2013
November 2013 Russian “Hotspot” – Alarmists Are Overlooking Something
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 20, 2013
Climate alarmists’ search for proof going cold
Even China’s coal-burning is offered to explain lack of global warming.
By Mark Landsbaum, Orange County Register, Dec 13, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/warming-593355-global-temperature.html
Models v. Observations
Causation And Correlation
By Matt Briggs, His Blog, Dec 18, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=10601
Models Issues
Defining reality
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 16, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/16/defining-reality.html
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
A model world
In economics, climate science and public health, computer models help us decide how to act. But can we trust them?
By Jon Turney, Aeon, Dec 16, 2013
http://aeon.co/magazine/world-views/should-we-trust-scientific-models-to-tell-us-what-to-do/
[SEPP Comment: Even though models may describe some phenomena well, without predictive value, models remain an artifact with little policy value.]
How far should we trust models?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 16, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/16/how-far-should-we-trust-models/
[SEPP Comment: Commentary on the link immediately above.]
Climate-Model Misgivings
By Ian Roulstone, and John Northbury, Project Syndicate, Dec 17, 2013
We may not be inclined to trust politicians, but we do need to take the output of these well-honed algorithms seriously. Unlike many of us, our climate models are increasingly able to learn from their mistakes.
[SEPP Comment: What are the important climate predictions that have been confirmed, as claimed in the article?]
Measurement Issues
University of Alabama, Huntsville, Global Temperature Report
By John Christy, et al, November 2013
http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/index.html
[SEPP Comment: No unusual November warming here.]
Changing Weather
The only difference between a hurricane, a cyclone, and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs
By Staff Writers, NOAA, Accessed Dec 20, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html
At AGU 2013: Are tornadoes getting stronger? No.
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 15, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/15/at-agu-2013-are-tornadoes-getting-stronger-no/
Holy Land hit by heaviest snowfall in decades
By Staff Writers, Jerusalem (AFP), Dec 14, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Holy_Land_hit_by_heaviest_snowfall_in_decades_999.html
US snowpack in December is largest in a decade
By Douglas Main, NBC News, Dec 17, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/us-snowpack-december-largest-decade-2D11764485
Tropics Go Wintery! … Northern Thailand Declared Cold Disaster Zone … Snow In Vietnam … In Turkey “Animals Literally Freeze Where They Stand”!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 19, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Headlines are usually exaggerations.]
Post-Sandy, Long Island barrier systems appear surprisingly sound
By Staff Writers, Austin TX (SPX), Dec 16, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The Long Island barrier islands were built by storms far more severe than Sandy.]
Changing Climate
‘Little Ice Ages’ Caused Suffering in Spain—as They Always Do
By: Dennis T. Avery, Center for Global Food Issues, Dec 18, 2013
German Scientists Show Natural Climate Cycles Dominated Over Last 7000 Years…Blaming Man Is “Witch-Hunting
New study from the Geosciences Center Potsdam: There have been 18 flooding phases in upper Austria over the last 7000 years
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt, Translated by P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 21, 2013
Study: Earth was warmer in Roman, Medieval times
By Michael Astasch, Daily Caller, Dec 13, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/13/study-earth-was-warmer-in-roman-medieval-times/
Changing Seas
Quelling The Rising Tide Of Sea Level Alarmism
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/12/16/quelling-the-rising-tide-of-sea-level-alarmism/
If Manmade Greenhouse Gases Are Responsible for the Warming of the Global Oceans…
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 19, 2013
[SEPP Comment: We should find it in the top layer of the oceans.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Alpine glacier, unchanged for thousands of years, now melting
By Staff Writers, San Francisco CA (SPX), Dec 16, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Just like Oetzi, the Iceman, how did it get there?]
Good news for Arctic, as sea ice volume up by half
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Dec 16, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Good_news_for_Arctic_as_sea_ice_volume_up_by_half_999.html
Nature proves Al Gore wrong again
Gore’s “ice free Arctic” prediction from five years ago, falsified by nature itself
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 16, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/16/nature-proves-al-gore-wrong-again/
Changing Earth
Rising mountains dried out Central Asia
By Ker Than for Stanford News, Stanford CA (SPX), Dec 16, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Rising_mountains_dried_out_Central_Asia_999.html
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
On the Origin of Extreme Climatic Events
Reference: Kumar, A., Chen, M., Hoerling, M. and Eischeid, J. 2013. Do extreme climate events require extreme forcings? Geophysical Research Letters 40: 3440-3445.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/17dec2013a2.html
[SEPP Comment: The May-July 2012 drought in the Great Plains was within natural variability.]
Atmospheric Blocking in the Northern Hemisphere
Reference: Masato, G., Hoskins, B.J. and Woollings, T. 2013. Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate 26: 7044-7059.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/17dec2013a3.html
[SEPP Comment: Models do not match historic observations.]
The Broad View of Holocene Climate from the Swedish Scande
Reference: Kullman, L. 2013. Ecological tree line history and palaeoclimate – review of mega-fossil evidence from the Swedish Scandes. Boreas 42: 555-567.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/18dec2013a1.html
[SEPP Comment: Warmer during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period.]
Modeling the Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon
Reference: Duan, A., Hu, J. and Xiao, Z. 2013. The Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon in the CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Climate 26: 7747-7766.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/18dec2013a2.html
Litigation Issues
‘MASSIVE SEIZURE OF POWER’: Climate scientists, economists challenge EPA
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Dec 18, 2013
Supreme Court Global Warming Case: What Legislative History Reveals about Congressional Intent
By Marlo Lewis, Master Resource, Dec 19, 2013
EPA, Climatology And The Courts: The Issue is Corrupted, Not Poor Science.
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Dec 19, 2013
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Remind me again why the West needs a carbon tax?
Man-made CO2 emissions 1965 -2012
By Ed Hoskins, WUWT, Dec 15, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/15/remind-me-again-why-the-west-needs-a-carbon-tax/
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to many politicians in Europe and Washington, the political leaders of many developing countries are not lemmings, ready to follow the west over the cliff.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
National Renewable Electricity Standard: Why raise electricity prices?
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Dec 18, 2013
Regulators pose threat to EU green energy and industry
By Barbara Lewis, Reuters, Dec 16, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/16/stateaid-idUKL6N0JT0FE20131216
Commission expected to announce formal probe on Wednesday
* Some say investigation alone will shatter confidence
* Carbon targets seen as too weak to encourage investment
[SEPP Comment: A look into Germany’s alternative energy subsidies.]
Ugh: Senate Democrats pushing for an eleventh-hour extension of wind’s all-important tax credit
By Erika Johnsen, Hot Air, Dec 18, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Dems call for extension of clean-energy tax incentives
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Dec 16, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the wind advocates on the Hill do not believe the press releases by the wind industry on how well it is doing.]
EPA admits the ethanol mandate has become unrealistic
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Dec 12, 2013
http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/12/epa-admits-the-ethanol-mandate-has-become-unrealistic/
Government urged to cut cash to green energy in order to reduce bills
Thinktank says renewable energy subsidies should be cut if technologies fail to come down in cost under strict time limits
By Staff Writers, Guardian, UK, Dec 15, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/16/government-cut-cash-green-energy-reduce-bills
Lobbying, Cronyism and Section 1705 Loan Guarantees
Why the Department of Energy should stop guaranteeing loans for green energy projects
By Victor Nava and Julian Morris, Reason Foundation, Dec 3, 2013
http://reason.org/studies/show/federal-loans-lobbying-cronyism
Link to paper, Stimulating Green Electric Dreams
By Victor Nava and Julian Morris, Reason Foundation, Dec 3, 2013
http://reason.org/files/green_electric_dreams.pdf
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Climate change expert’s fraud was ‘crime of massive proportion,’ say feds
By Michael Isikoff, NBC News, Dec 16, 2013
EPA’s fake spy sent to prison for 32 months
By Julian Hattem, The Hill, Dec 18, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/193525-epas-fake-spy-sent-to-prison
EPA unveils carbon capture regulations
By Ben Goad, The Hill, Dec 19, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/energy-environment/193684-epa-unveils-carbon-capture-regulations
Link to regulations: Hazardous Waste Management System: Conditional Exclusion for Carbon Dioxide Streams in Geologic Sequestration Activities Rulemaking
By Staff Writers, EPA, Dec 17, 2013
http://www.epa.gov/wastes/nonhaz/industrial/geo-sequester/
[SEPP Comment: 75 Days for public comment.]
EPA Power Plant Regulations: A Backdoor Energy Tax
By Nicolas Loris, Kevin Dayaratna and David W. Kreutzer, Heritage Foundation, Dec 5, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Contains a state by state breakdown of coal resources, enough for 500 plus years at current rates of consumption.]
The Power-Mad EPA
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Dec 16, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-power-mad-epa.html
Energy Issues – Non-US
Global energy demand to increase 35 percent: ExxonMobil
By Staff Writers, Irving, Texas (UPI), Dec 13, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Global_energy_demand_to_increase_35_percent_ExxonMobil_999.html
Australia ‘To Be An Energy Superpower’ By Mid 2017
Morgan Stanley report predicts that gas exports will help country eliminate its current account deficit for the first time in four decades
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/australia-to-energy-superpower-mid-2017/
Australian coal projects at risk of being ‘stranded’
By Staff Writers, Brisbane, Australia (UPI), Dec 16, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Australian_coal_projects_at_risk_of_being_stranded_999.html
Energy Issues — US
EIA: Natural Gas to Overtake Coal by 2035
By Tomas Overton, Power, Dec 16, 2013
Link to early release: AEO 2014 Early Release Overview
By Staff Writers, EIA, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2014).pdf
Fossil fuels will continue to supply > 80% of US energy through 2040, while renewables will play only a minor role
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Dec 16, 2013 [H/t George Nicholas]
US Annual Energy Outlook Continues To Low-Ball Renewable Energy Forecasts
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Dec 17, 2013
Becoming Saudi America Isn’t The Answer To Our Energy Problems
By Ken Backwell and James Conway, IBD, Dec 16, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Is the solution to changing oil prices an oil industry with both production and consumption controlled by an authoritarian state?]
Oil Trains Raise Concerns in Small Town, Cities
By Matthew Brown and Josh Funk, AP, Dec 19, 2013
Washington’s Control of Energy
Oil shipments to begin in Keystone XL’s southern leg
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Dec 17, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/193409-oil-shipments-to-begin-in-keystone-xls-southern-leg
[SEPP Comment: If it were not for Washington, the northern leg would be nearing completion.]
Feds not getting fair share of oil and gas dollars, report finds
By Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Dec 17, 2013
GAO: Outdated Interior regs costing taxpayers
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Dec 17, 2013
Interior Dept. Nominee Helped Steer Millions to Environmentalist Groups
Could potentially obstruct energy projects in new role
By Lachlan Markay, Washington Free Beacon, Dec 19, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://freebeacon.com/interior-dept-nominee-helped-steer-millions-to-environmentalist-groups/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Fracking, the Larger Picture
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Dec 20, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/fracking-the-larger-picture/
EU plan for fracking law threatens UK’s shale gas boom
Owen Paterson plots fightback against European Commission over dinner in Brussels to win support for Britain’s fracking industry on eve of new shale gas drilling round
By Tim Ross, The Telegraph, UK, Dec 15, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
It Shale Be Done: Green Light For Fracking
THE government is to open up thousands of square miles to drilling for shale gas reserves, potentially leading to hundreds of rigs dotting the countryside.
By Jack Grimston and Danny Fortson, Sunday Times, UK, Via GWPF, Dec 15, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/shale-done-green-light-fracking/
Return of King Coal?
Coal Must Embrace All-Out Battle with Eco-Bullies
Meekly accepting blame for climate change dooms the industry and the greater economy.
By Tim Ball and Tom Harris, PJ Media, Dec 18, 2013
http://pjmedia.com/blog/coal-must-embrace-all-out-battle-with-eco-bullies/?singlepage=true
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Nuclear Energy and Fears
NuScale SMR wins second DoE funding round
By Staff Writer, WNN, Dec 13, 2013
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-NuScale-SMR-wins-second-DoE-funding-round-1312137.html
[SEPP Comment: Funding for small modular reactors (SMR).]
TEPCO to decommission surviving Fukushima reactors
By Staff Writers, Tokyo (AFP), Dec 18, 2013
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/TEPCO_to_decommission_surviving_Fukushima_reactors_999.html
USEC to Restructure, Seek Bankruptcy to Stimulate American Centrifuge Project
By Sonal Patel, Power, Dec 18, 2013
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Power Unclothed: ‘Economics in One Lesson’ Applied (Hazlitt in 1946 versus AWEA today)
By Travis Fisher, Master Resource, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/12/wind-hazlitt-2/#more-28948
[SEPP Comment: The special pleadings that applied in 1946 apply to the wind industry today.]
Wind Power Rivals Coal With $1 Billion Order From Buffett
By Ehren Goossens, Bloomberg, Dec 17, 2013
Wind is the cheapest source of power in Iowa, and the deal indicates that turbines are becoming profitable without subsidies, according to Tom Kiernan, chief executive officer of the American Wind Energy Association trade group.
“If Congress were to remove all the subsidies from every energy source, the wind industry can compete on its own,” Kiernan said
[SEPP Comment: Further reason to stop tax credits for wind farms.]
More Wind Turbine Problems
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Dec 17, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/more-wind-turbine-problems/
Scottish Power becomes third firm to scrap UK offshore wind farm
By Karolin Schaps, Reuters, Dec 13, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us-britain-scottishpower-wind-idUKBRE9BC0IZ20131213
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Algae to crude oil: Million-year natural process takes minutes in the lab
By Staff Writers, Richland WA (SPX), Dec 19, 2013
[SEPP Comment: At what cost?]
California Dreaming
California Energy Update: Part III
By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, Dec 17, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/12/california-energy-update-iii/
Environmental Industry
The Endangered Species Act & Counterfactual Arguments
By Matt Briggs, His Blog, Dec 20, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=10637
The Endocrine-Disruptors Scare
More junk science takes aim at another American industry — agriculture.
By James Delingpole, National Review, Dec 19, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/366686/endocrine-disruptors-scare-james-delingpole
Other Scientific News
Pollen has bigger influences on optical properties of the atmosphere than previously known
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 18, 2013
A Matter Of Gravity: Russia And Asia Pursue High Frontier As America Drifts Lost In Space
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Dec 17, 2013
Behold the ‘Plastisphere’
Colonies of microbes flourish on tiny bits in the ocean
By Lonny Lippsett, Oceanus, Dec 17, 2013
http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/behold-the-plastisphere
[SEPP Comment: The Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health reports how life finds a way in the strangest of places.]
Change in Pacific nitrogen content tied to climate change
By Anne M Stark for LLNL News, Livermore CA (SPX), Dec 17, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Change_in_Pacific_nitrogen_content_tied_to_climate_change_999.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
The “Wager of the Decade” and Its Unfortunate Legacy
By Bill Gates, Gates Notes, Dec 12, 2013 [H/t Tom Sheahen]
http://www.thegatesnotes.com/Books/Personal/The-Bet?WT.mc_id=12_13_2013_TheBet_tw&WT.tsrc=Twitter
Climate Change Could Boost British Wine Industry
By Staff Writer, Environmental Leader, Dec 16, 2013
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2013/12/16/climate-change-could-boost-british-wine-industry/
[SEPP Comment: A return to the good-old-days of the Medieval Warm Period when Britain was self-sufficient in wine production – without the use of frost resistant hybrids, or Canadian root stock to prevent the vines roots from freezing. The discussion about declines in production elsewhere is non-science.]
Saving the Great Plains water supply
By Staff Writers, East Lansing MI (SPX), Dec 17, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Saving_the_Great_Plains_water_supply_999.html
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
How Offal! Global Warming Threatens the World’s Haggis Supply!
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Dec 19, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/how-offal-global-warming-threatens-worlds-haggis-supply
Climate craziness of the week: Yes, we have no bananas, thanks to climate change
Going Bananas: Another Climate Change Hustle
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, WUWT, Dec 18, 2013
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Sure, Mike, I don’t know where to start. I was having some health problems back in 2007 and a woman appeared in my life. Not Victoria Bidwell but someone who knows her well and studied Natural Hygiene with her from T.C. Fry and thusly under Dr. Herbert M. Shelton. If you Google them, I believe they are the ones who founded those institutions. They were using fasting to cure various health problems related to toxicity within your body. It was controversial because it didn’t use the medical establishment and their drugs.
My tumors disappeared with a six week fast and a change of diet to much more raw fruits, nuts and vegetables and I lost sixty pounds of overweight. The experience of fasting improved my life and probably saved me. I used what I had learned about fasting from this woman on my own without anyone’s supervision.
I just desire to spread the word about this way of improving your health and since Victoria Bidwell has a treasure trove of information I link to her site. I have no business interests in natural hygiene. She and I have never communicated, but the lady who came into my life was regularly talking to her. She gave me a lot of material written by Dr. Herbert M Shelton and T. C. Fry.
Would you recommend I change it to this instead?
http://www.allaboutfasting.com/
@Ed Mertin,
Good reply, ed. Thank you.