Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

The Week That Was: 2013-10-05 (October 5, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project


Quote of the Week: The future is certain, only the past is unpredictable. Polish saying from Soviet times [H/t Tom Quirk]


Number of the Week: 30


NIPCC Co-Editors Fred Singer and Bob Carter will be making a presentation on Climate Change Reconsidered: Physical Science at 10 am on October 8 at the Ayn Rand Institute in Irvine, California. On Oct 10 at 11 am, they will appear on the Roger Hedgecock show in San Diego. On Friday morning, Oct 11, they will be making a presentation at Chapman University. Details are not yet available. If you have an interest in attending any of these events, please contact Ken@SEPP.org and he will provide details as he receives them.



By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

IPCC: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group I (WGI), providing an assessment of the of the physical science: Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment. The report states that it has been accepted by WGI, but not approved in detail. The publically available report also carries the strange statement: “Confidential – This document is being made available in preparation of WGI-12 only and should not be cited, quoted, or distributed.” If the IPCC wishes it to be confidential, why does it place it on the web? The final, final report is expected out in January 2014. Given the history of the IPCC, we may see some major changes.

Also, the final version of the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is not yet available, making a focused comparison between the IPCC (SPM) and the Summary for Policymakers by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) somewhat premature.

The IPCC reports have been intensely analyzed by a number of IPCC followers, with comments posted on various blogs as well as in the traditional press. These comments will provide the bulk of this issue of TWTW.


Extreme Weather Events: First, the good news, at least for now. Roger Pielke Jr. reports that the critical chapter in AR5 does not support claims of more extreme weather events. He presents a list of statements he compiled from the key Chapter 2 of AR5. Pielke concludes: “Of course, I have no doubts that claims will still be made associating floods, drought, hurricanes and tornadoes with human-caused climate change — Zombie science — but I am declaring victory in this debate.”

The term Zombie Science may be less than complementary, but is appropriate for those who continue to reiterate future disasters from global warming without providing physical evidence of human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing dangerous global warming or that global warming will increase the intensity of extreme weather events. Since some politicians and governments have invested so heavily on proclaiming humans are causing extreme weather events, it will be interesting if this section survives the final revision. The SPM indicates that it may not.

No doubt, the EPA will use the statement that AR5 should not be cited, quoted, or distributed as grounds for rejecting its use in the upcoming public hearings on its new rules for power plants which embody a huge, questionable danger from human caused global warming. Please see links under IPCC report.


IPCC Games: Almost immediately after the public distribution of AR5 by the IPCC, Steve McIntyre posted a clear example of why the IPCC cannot be trusted to maintain consistency from one draft to another draft, or explain why changes were made. The Second Order Draft, which went expert reviewers, contained a graph that clearly showed the discrepancies between projections of temperatures in prior IPCC assessment reports and observed temperatures. The observed surface temperatures were, correctly, below the projected envelope of temperatures from earlier reports. In the current AR5, the observed temperatures are within the projected envelope by the models.

Going through the messy new graph, McIntyre shows how, after expert review, the IPCC reconstructed the earlier projections to shift the envelope downward relative to the observations, thus incorporating the observations within the re-interpreted projections. McIntyre compares this to the classic shell game of picking under which shell the pea is hiding. It is a further example of the IPCC’s continued abuse of the peer review system and how the IPCC changes the past. Please see link under Climategate Continued.


IPCC Version of Climate History: Writing in Watts Up With That?, geologist Don Easterbrook states: “When compared to the also recently published NIPCC (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change) 1000+-page volume of data on climate change with thousands of peer-reviewed references, the inescapable conclusion is that the IPCC report must be considered the grossest misrepresentation of data ever published.”

A key IPCC statement is that: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.” Easterbrook compares this statement with the temperature data for the 10 years, the last 500 years, the last 2000 years, the last 10,000 years, and the last 15,000 years. Easterbrook finds that more intense warming “has occurred many times in the past centuries and millennia.” Easterbrook goes on to expose other factually challenged statements in the AR5. Please see link under Climategate Continued.


An Elephant in the Room: Writing in the Mail, UK, David Rose reports that, on September 27, he attended an IPCC press conference in Stockholm on the new SPM. He asked: “why the climate computer models failed to predict the continuing 17 year pause in global warming – and how much longer would this have to last before the IPCC thought the models might be wrong?”

Rose reports that Michel Jarraud, the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, one of the two parent organizations of the IPCC replied: “Your question is what I would call ill posed from a scientific point of view. The models are proving more and more remarkable at predicting the long-term trend.”

According to Rose, Thomas Stocker, co-chair of WGI, added “if it lasted another 20 years, ‘that would not be expected’, and that climate trends should not be considered in periods of less than 30 years.” The leadership of the IPCC refuses to clutter their beautiful models and theory with messy data. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy


The Second Elephant in the Room: The IPCC ignores the second, larger elephant in the room. Over 33 years of satellite data that are compiled by two independent groups and separately supported by four sets of balloon data. These temperature data are comprehensive globally, except at the poles. They show a pronounced warming over the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere, little or no warming over the Tropics or the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling around Antarctica. The global warming models are inconsistent with these data. For some reason, one-third global warming does not sound compelling.

Instead of addressing these inconsistencies, the IPCC glosses over them. The SPM states: “It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century. More complete observations allow greater confidence in estimates of tropospheric temperature changes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere than elsewhere. There is medium confidence in the rate of warming and its vertical structure in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere.”

In other words, the IPCC has great confidence in the part of the dataset that supports its theories and models, and no confidence in the part that does not. Such is the selective science of the IPCC.

By comparison, in its Summary for Policymakers, the NIPCC report specifically discusses the lack of a hot spot over the Tropics and the failure of the atmosphere above Antarctic to warm, as suggested by the models and greenhouse theory. Further, NIPCC suggests that the pronounced warming of the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere may be due to northerly transport of heat by the atmosphere and oceans and that this transport may be driven by changes in the Sun’s magnetic activity, which the IPCC report does not consider. The links can be found under NIPCC Report, IPCC Report, Questioning the Orthodoxy, and Models v. Observations.


Other Posts: There are many excellent posts addressing the shortcomings of the IPCC SPM. Judith Curry has a large number that can be found under different headings, including the suggestion that the IPCC should be put down because it has become an obstacle in the development of climate science. Two very succinct posts are from physicists Nir Shaviv and Tom Quirk.

Presenting what he terms as the most boring graph he ever plotted, Nir Shaviv shows the changes in the projected likely range of climate sensitivity over time. That is our understanding of how sensitive temperatures are to a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2). There has been virtually no change in the scientific assessment of this critical calculation over three decades in spite of the expenditures of tens of billions of dollars. [Based on US government reports, SEPP calculates that since FY 1993, the US government spent over $150 Billion on climate change activities of which about $35 Billion is categorized as climate science.]

Shaviv dismisses the idea that failure to advance knowledge is due to general incompetence of the Climate Establishment. He states: “I think the real reason why there is no improvement in the understanding of climate sensitivity is the following. If you have a theory which is correct, then as progressively more data comes in, the agreement becomes better…However, if the basic premises of a theory are wrong, then there is no improved agreement as more data is collected. In fact, it is usually the opposite that takes place, the disagreement increases. In other words, the above behavior reflects the fact that the IPCC and alike are captives of a wrong conception.”

Tom Quirk goes directly to the IPCC’s reliance on computer models and the failure of these models to accurately project temperature trends for twenty years. Instead of directly addressing this failure, the IPCC uses ad hoc excuses why the models have failed. Quirk assess and rebuts some of these excuses. Quirk was the source of the Quote of the Week and uses a section from Gulliver’s Travels to describe the IPCC efforts. Links can be found under IPCC Report, Challenging the Orthodoxy, Questioning the Orthodoxy, and Seeking a Common Ground.


Interacademy Council: For many, the big message of the IPCC SPM is that: “…the rise in global average temperatures over the past century is unequivocal, and it is ‘extremely likely’+ that more than half of the increase during the past 60 years stems from rising greenhouse-gas emissions.”

As discussed in September 21 TWTW, in reviewing the last IPCC report, The Interacademy Council specifically addressed the abuse in assigning quantitative probabilities (including confidence levels) by the IPCC. The Council stated that subjective probabilities should not be assigned to ill-defined outcomes, and quantitative probabilities (a likelihood scale) should be used to describe the probability of well-defined outcomes only when there is sufficient evidence.

The IPCC presents no physical evidence substantiating it is “extremely likely” that more than half of the increase during the past 60 years stems from rising greenhouse-gas emissions or a rigorous method of calculating the 95 to 100% probability that the term extremely likely embodies. Clearly, the IPCC does not have a high regard for the Interacademy Council. The quote is from the Christian Science Monitor linked under Defending the Orthodoxy.


Number of the Week: 30. According to reports, there are 30 nuclear power plants under construction in China. It would be very interesting to see a time frame from start to finish and the costs of completion for some of these plants as compared with similar plants under construction in developed countries, such as the US.



For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.

1. Climate of Uncertainty

A U.N. report can’t explain the hiatus in global warming.

Editorial, WSJ, Sep 30, 2013


2. The Political Science of Global Warming

The U.N.’s latest climate-change report should be its last.

By Rupert Darwall, WSJ, Sep 30, 2013


3. U.S. Is Poised to Overtake Russia as Largest Oil-and-Gas Producer

By Russell Gold and Daniel Gilbert, WSJ, Oct 2, 2013


[SEPP Comment: No thanks to Washington.]



Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

The Neglected Sun

Book Review by Thomas Cussans, Bishop Hill, Sep 30, 2013


IPCC: solar variations don’t matter

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 1, 2013


Climategate Continued

IPCC: Fixing the Facts

By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 30, 2013


The 2013 IPCC AR5 Report: Facts -vs- Fictions

By Don Easterbrook, WUWT, Oct 3, 2013


Marotzke’s Broken Promise

By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 30, 2013


NIPCC Report

Summary for Policymakers

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013



Major International Climate Report Challenges UN Alarmism

By Alex Newman, New American, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t DeWitt Edwards]


IPCC Report

IPCC Final Draft (accepted): The Physical Science

By Working Group I, IPCC, Subject to Changes, Final Expected in January 2014 [H/t Bishop Hill]


Working Group II leaked

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2013


[SEPP Comment: What may happen if the IPCC science is correct.]

The IPCC WGI Fifth Report

NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No. 317

By [5 Time] IPCC Expert Reviewer Vincent Gray, NCTCS, Oct 2, 2013


Coverage of Extreme Events in the IPCC AR5

By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Oct 3, 2013


Cause of the Pause

By Barry Brill, New Zealand Centre for Political Research, Sep 30, 2013


IPCC’s pause ‘logic’

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 30, 2013


AR5 gives no best estimate for climate sensitivity; breaks with a long tradition; good news is hidden from policy makers

By Marcel Crok, De staat van het klimaat, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t Anne and Lars Debeil]


AR5 and AGW becomes more certain.

By Anthony Cox, NCTCS, Sep 30, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Exposing the word games.]

Climate change: the uses of uncertainty

Science, not politics, should be the driver behind the world’s action to combat climate change

Editorial, Guardian, UK, Sep 26, 2013


How the IPCC forgot to mention the pause

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 29, 2013


[SEPP Comment: All 14 groups assumed another group was addressing the pause?]

Challenging the Orthodoxy

The IPCC AR5 – First impressions

By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Oct 2, 2013


The Computer says NO – The IPCC 2013 Summary for Policymakers

By Tom Quirk, Henry Thornton, Oct 5, 2013


The Global Warming They Fear is NOT Based upon Physical First Principles

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 30, 2013


IPCC diagnosis – permanent paradigm paralysis

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 28, 2013


The diagnosis of paradigm paralysis seems fatal in the case of the IPCC, given the widespread nature of the infection and intrinsic motivated reasoning. We need to put down the IPCC as soon as possible – not to protect the patient who seems to be thriving in its own little cocoon, but for the sake of the rest of us whom it is trying to infect with its disease. Fortunately much of the population seems to be immune, but some governments seem highly susceptible to the disease. However, the precautionary principle demands that we not take any risks here, and hence the IPCC should be put down.

Kill the IPCC: After decades and billions spent, the climate body still fails to prove humans behind warming

By Judith Curry, Financial Post, CA, Oct 1, 2013


Oceanic Cloud Decrease since 1987 Explains 1/3 of Ocean Heating

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 3, 2013


Low Information Reporters…and Even Lower Information Scientists

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 2, 2013


IPCC Climate: A Product of Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Built On Inadequate Data

By Tim Ball, WUWT, Oct 2, 2013


Environment Canada’s Ignorance Guarantees Political Climate Science And Wrong Policy.

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 3, 2013


Defending the Orthodoxy

Energy secretary: United Nations climate report a ‘watershed’

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 28, 2013


A Pause, Not an End, to Warming

By Richard Muller, NYT, Sep 25, 2013


[SEPP Comment: The temperatures do not tract well with solar changes if one ignores important solar changes.]

Has the U.N. Climate Panel Now Outlived Its Usefulness?

By Fred Pearce, Environment 360, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t WUWT]


The irony may be that the IPCC has stood up to political pressure, and maintained its scientific purity, perhaps just a tad too well.

[SEPP Comment: What scientific purity?]

IPCC: fit for its purpose?

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 4, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Depends on its purpose. It is certainly is not to identify all the possible causes of climate change. Addresses article by Pearce – see link immediately above.]

UN panel: ‘Extremely likely’ that human activity behind most global warming

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that the past decade has been the warmest on record and, with medium confidence, that the last three decades are the warmest in 1,400 years.

By Pete Spotts, Christian Science Monitor, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t Climate Etc.]


Humans almost certainly cause global warming, scientific panel says

By Darryl Fears, Washington Post, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t Conrad Potemra]


No more denial. Time to act on climate change

Our leaders must set the climate change gainsayers to one side and confront imminent catastrophe

Editorial, Guardian, UK, Sep 28, 2013


The IPCC report: A summary for everyone

By Ros Donald, The Carbon Brief, Sep 27, 2013


Questioning the Orthodoxy

IPCC’s High-impact, low-probability risk media talking points

’Abrupt Climate Change’ may turn out to be an IPCC own goal

By Barry Brill, WUWT, Oct 3, 2013


“’Skeptics don’t accept that fossil fuel usage gives rise to any realistic or actionable threat of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC)” is a statement that even the mainstream media might come to understand.”

IPCC in denial. “Just-so” excuses use ocean heat to hide their failure.

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 30, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Exposing the contradictions in the IPCC claim that the oceans are causing the failure of CO2 to warm the world. If the world is cooling or not warming, the cause is natural. If the world is warming, the cause is human. But the actual ocean heat content, assuming it is accurately measured, supports the skeptics.]

IPCC scientists recommend having the Earth put down

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 28, 2013


Met Office proof that global warming is still ‘on pause’ as climate summit confirms global temperature has stopped rising

By David Rose, Mail, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Questions the Media Should Be Asking the IPCC – The Hiatus in Warming

By Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, Oct 3, 2013


[SEPP Comment: A long post, backed-up by graphs.]

Detecting the AGW Needle in the SST Haystack

By Jeffery Patterson, WUWT, Sep 26, 2013


IPCC: Yes, humans are definitely behind all this global warming we aren’t having

Prof: ‘We’re confident because we’re confident’. Whoa, slow down, egghead

By Andrew Orlowski, The Register, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


IPCC’s High-impact, low-probability risk media talking points

’Abrupt Climate Change’ may turn out to be an IPCC own goal

By Barry Brill, WUWT, Oct 3, 2013


Climate change: this is not science – it’s mumbo jumbo

The IPCC’s call to phase out fossil fuels is economic nonsense and ‘morally outrageous’ for the developing world

By Nigel Lawson, Telegraph, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Here, former chancellor Lord Lawson, now chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a climate sceptic think tank, gives his verdict on the report.

Climate science in a Styrofoam cup

By Mal Wedd, Quadrant, Sep 30, 2013


[SEPP Comment: A brief explanation of the difficulty of modeling the major important greenhouse gas—water vapor.]

IPCC at crossroads with fifth climate change report

By William Kininmonth, The Age, AU, Sep 25, 2013


IPCC says abrupt irreversible clathrate methane, ice sheet collapse are unlikely.

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 3, 2013


Why Climate Science is Fallible

By David Deming, WUWT, Oct 1, 2013


Global warming alarmism is no longer scientifically or politically sustainable

By Peter Lilley, City A.M. Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


German Geologist: Despite Shrillness “No Hard Evidence Of CO2, No Cause For Alarm…Key Findings Not Properly Reported”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 30, 2013


IPCC 5th Assessment Is Very Confident That They’re Not Sure

By: Art Horn, Energy Tribune, Oct 1, 2013 [H/t Tom Harris]


‘Gambling’ climate change experts could be left red-faced as they bet on earth heating

A LEADING global warming expert believes the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a “big gamble” as temperatures have not increased since 1997.

By Owen Bennett, Express, UK, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Major Swiss Daily Chief Editor: “Never Have I Read The Words ‘Probable’ Or ‘Improbable’ So Often” …”Dosed Prophecy”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 29, 2013


The reality is climate change is outlook better than expected

THE summary report by the IPCC is much more a political than a scientific statement.

By Benny Peiser, Express, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


United Nations Climate Change Report Wrong As Usual

Editorial, IBD, Sep 27, 2013


Social Benefits of Carbon

Global warming can have a positive side, says Owen Paterson

Secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, says global warming could allow food to be grown further north

By Rajeev Syal, Guardian, UK, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Global lukewarming need not be catastrophic

By Matt Ridley, His Blog, Oct 1, 20133


Seeking a Common Ground

Vahrenholt Sees Movement Towards More Realism, Openness In IPCC Report…”IPCC Models Are Wrong”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 28, 2013


Did the AR5 take the ‘dangerous’ out of AGW?

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 3, 2013


[SEPP Comment: AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In the North Atlantic the surface water moves north (Gulf Stream) and the deep water moves south.]

2 from the Australian Financial Review

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 29, 2013


Negotiating the IPCC SPM

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 1, 2013


[SEPP Comment: The sausage factory.]

On The Intersection Of Scientist And Politicians—Guest Post by An Engineer

By “An Engineer” Blob of William Briggs, Oct 4, 2013


[SEPP Comment: An amusing take on the intersection of the two on the IPCC level.]

Lowering Standards

A report from the Royal

By a reader of Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2013


We need common sense on climate change

By J. Marshall Shepherd, CNN, Sep 26, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Hardly a sound scientific defense by the current president of the American Meteorological Society.]

Questioning European Green

Germany as the Canary

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 4, 2013


Rethinking climate change policy

By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 4, 2013


The vast tomes of the Assessment Reports themselves simply provide backup for the case being presented in the summaries.

[SEPP Comment: The rest of the world is not following the EU lead of driving up the costs of electricity.]

Cheap energy or green energy – you cannot have both

By Matt Ridley, His Blog, (Times Column), Sep 30, 2013


Hypocrisy can be a beautiful thing when done well.

Poland pits itself against EU climate promises

By Barbara Lewis, Reuters, Oct 1, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Questioning Green Elsewhere

Four Numbers Say Wind and Solar Can’t Save Climate

By Robert Bryce, Bloomberg, Sep 20, 2013 [H/t NCPA]


Climate policies lock chains on developing nations

By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Sep 30, 2013


Funding Issues

Stop Wasting Money on the IPCC

By Viv Forbes, Carbon Sense Coalition, Oct 2, 2013


The Global Environmental Facility: A Dismal Failure

By Brent Pinero, NCPA, Oct 3, 2013


Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

We need climate-change risk assessment

By Michael Bloomberg, Hank Paulson and Tom Steyer, Washington Post: Oct 3, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Apparently these gentlemen, who desire a businesslike approach for US climate policy, are not aware that their assertions are based on what Roger Pielke, Jr, terms Zombie Science..]

What should scientists tell the public?

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 30, 2013 [Video]


[SEPP Comment: The theme is: Avoid exposing to the public the uncertainty of the science.]

Networks Embrace ‘Catastrophic’ Warnings of Latest IPCC Report

ABC swipes at skeptics, while CBS airs ‘irresponsible’ claim about temperatures rising 212 degrees.

By Julia Seymour, Business and Media Institute, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t Roy Spencer]


Climate Activists Need to Dial Back on the Panic

Instead of enacting phenomenally expensive policies, we need to come up with low-cost solutions to global warming that all nations can embrace

By Bjørn Lomborg, Time, Sep 30, 2013


Scientists to IPCC: YES, solar quiet spells like the one now looming CAN mean ICE AGES

Pesky boffins just refuse to toe the consensus line

By Lewis Page, The Register, Oct 1, 2013


Link to paper: Amplified Inception of European Little Ice Age by Sea Ice–Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks

By Flavio Lehner, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker, Journal of Climate, Oct, 2013


[SEPP Comment: The comment by Lewis is far stronger than what can be found in the abstract of the paper. Thomas F. Stocker of Switzerland is a co-chair of the IPCC Working Group I, Physical Science.]

Colorado floods triggered by convergence of geography and climate, experts say

By John Roach, NBC News, Sep 17, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]


[SEPP Comment: Roger Pielke Jr, pointed out that for over 100 years Boulder has been subject to extreme flooding.]


By Andrew Montfrom, Bishop Hill, Oct 1, 2013


Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Climate change: Fast out of the gate, slow to the finish the gate

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Oct 03, 2013


[SEPP Comment: What instantaneous step increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration?]

The poster boys of climate change thrive in the icy Arctic: Polar bears defy concerns about their extinction

Polar bear populations have stablised and may even be increasing

This is despite dire predictions of 70 per cent decline in numbers by 2050

One resident of Alaskan village says ‘this has been a great year for bears’

By Caroline Graham, Mail, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


[SEPP Comment: Exposing false claims.]

Models v. Observations

Climate Data vs. Climate Models

Why do climate change assessments overlook the differences between the climate models they use and the empirical data?

By Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, Regulation, Fall 2013


Dec 1978 to Nov 2012 Trend (ºC/Decade)

Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, December, 2012


What about the polar bears? Disconnect between predictions and observations

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 28, 2013


Models Issues

Spinning the climate model – observation comparison: Part II

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 2, 2013 [H/t Anne and Lars Debeil]


Slingo writes to Lewis

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 29, 2013


[SEPP Comment: An exchange of polite letters, but do the MET procedures and model contain a warming bias?

Measurement Issues

Budget Cutbacks and Buoys

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 1, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Further example of NOAA’s misappropriation of funds in pursuit of global warming.]

Changing Weather

What happened to hurricane season? And why we should keep forecasting it…

By Brian McNoldy, Washington Post, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Changing Climate

‘Modern warming trend can’t be found’ in new climate study

Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm did show up, however

By Lewis Page, The Register, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Link to paper: Winter-to-spring temperature dynamics in Turkey derived from tree rings since AD 1125

By Heinrich, et al. Climate Dynamics, October, 2013


Wind and rain belts to shift north as planet warms

By Staff Writers New York NY (SPX),Sep 27, 2013


[SEPP Comment: The Sahara, now north of the tropical rain belt, was wet 8,000 years ago. The issue what caused this natural climate change?]

Traces of immense prehistoric ice sheets: the climate history of the Arctic Ocean needs to be rewritten

By Staff Writers, Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX), Oct 03, 2013


Climate change nothing new in Oz

By Staff Writers, Cairns, Australia (SPX,) Sep 26, 2013


Changing Seas

The deep Greenland Sea is warming faster than the World Ocean

By Staff Writers, Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX), Oct 01, 2013


Link to paper: Increasing amount of Arctic Ocean deep waters in the Greenland Sea

By R. Somavilla, U. Schauer, G. Budéus, GRL, Aug 27, 2013


Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Doomed Arctic Nearly Back To 1995 Levels

By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


The First Alpine Glaciers are Growing Again

By Fabienne Riklin, Schweiz am Sonnntag, Trans Philipp Mueller, GWPF, Sep 30, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Joyous news unless the glaciers start threatening villages again.]

Changing Earth

Source of Mysterious Medieval Eruption Identified

By Staff Writers, Science, Oct 1, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]


Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Anti-GMO movement exposed for the destructive force they are

By Staff Writer, ACSH, Sep 30, 2013


Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC

For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org

Dying from Heat and Cold in China: Which is the Greater Killer?

Reference: Wu, W., Xiao, Y., Li, G., Zeng, W., Lin, H., Rutherford, S., Xu, Y., Luo, Y., Xu, X., Chu, C. and Ma, W. 2013. Temperature-mortality relationship in four subtropical Chinese cities: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Science of the Total Environment 449: 355-362.


Although “both low and high temperatures were associated with increased mortality in the four subtropical Chinese cities,” according to Wu et al., they indicate that the “cold effect was more durable and pronounced than the hot effect.” And these observations clearly indicate that global warming leads to a net reduction in human mortality, which is just the opposite of what many climate alarmists and governmental agencies (like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and United Nations IPCC) are promoting.

Stratocumulus Clouds of the Subtropical North and South Atlantic

Reference: Evan, A.T., Allen, R.J., Bennartz, R. and Vimont, D.J. 2013. The modification of sea surface temperature anomaly linear damping time scales by stratocumulus clouds. Journal of Climate 26: 3619-3630.


Diurnal Temperature Range and Respiratory Tract Infections

Reference: Ge, W.Z., Xu, F., Zhao, Z.H., Zhao, J.Z. and Kan, H.D. 2013. Association between diurnal temperature range and respiratory tract infections. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 26: 222-225.


The Warming of Max and Min Global Terrestrial Temperatures

Reference: Donat, et al. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres) 118: 2098-2118.

Litigation Issues

Supreme Court: Justices to consider review of EPA greenhouse gas rules

Jeremy P. Jacobs, E&E reporter, Sep 27, 2013


[SEPP Comment: A decision may be announced as soon as Monday, or later.]

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Analysis shows wind tax credit would cost billions

By Julian Hattem, The Hill, Oct 2, 2013


Green energy confusion ‘stalling UK investment’

A group of powerful investors has written to George Osborne warning that a lack of clarity on green energy policy is stalling investment in UK companies.

By Louise Armitstead, Telegraph, UK, Sep 29, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


[SEPP Comment: There is nothing preventing these companies and the Methodist Church from investing in green energy. The issue is their demands for subsidies and mandates.]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

EPA Mandates That New Coal Plants Prevent Nonexistent Climate Problem With Unavailable Solution

By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 1, 2013



The EPA as Energy Master

The agency sees itself as central planner of the new clean-energy economy.

By Kathleen Hartnett White, National Review, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]



An Energy Star Window Into EPA Ineptitude

Editorial, IBD, Sep 27, 2013


EPA, IPCC Push Ahead Even as Global Warming Theories Crumble

By Paul Chesser, NL&PC, Oct 1, 2013


EPA officials cleared of email abuse charges

By Stephen Dinan, Washington Times, Sep 30, 2013


Link to the report: Congressionally Requested Inquiry Into the EPA’s Use of Private and Alias Email Accounts

By Office of Inspector General, EPA, Sep 26, 2013


Obama Clings To Climate Change Science That Now Looks Very Wrong

By H. Sterling Burnett, IBD, Sep 26, 2013


Energy Issues – Non-US

Saudi Arabia’s Changing Oil Equation

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 1, 2013


Energy Issues — US

As US Oil Production Revives, New Vulnerabilities Appear

By: Geoffrey Styles, Energy Tribune, Oct 4, 2013


[SEPP Comment: Opening drilling in Alaska, which the administration refuses to do, would eliminate the major threat.]

Arctic drilling needs federal standards

By Staff Writers, Washington (UPI), Sep 27, 2013


[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Washington’s Control of Energy

Day 9: Obama repeatedly defied federal court with Gulf oil policies

By Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner, Sep 26, 2013


Obama Draws Line In The Sand Against Coal Industry

By Richard Faulk, IBD, Sep 30, 2013


Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Study Sheds Light on Truth Of Methane and Drilling

By: Michael Economides, Energy Tribune, Oct 3, 2013


Nuclear Energy and Fears

Construction begins on Tianwan 4

The pouring of first concrete today for another Russian-supplied reactor at the Tianwan site in China’s Jiangsu province brings the total number of power reactors currently under construction in the country to 30.

By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 27, 2013


Japan seeks outside help for contaminated water

By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 26, 2013


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Biofuel Blunder: Navy Should Prioritize Fleet Modernization over Political Initiatives

By Brian Slattery and Michaela Dodge, Heritage, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Assault and GM’s $30,000 Battery

By Eric Peters, American Spectator, Oct 1, 2013


Carbon Schemes

The EPA’s Carbon-Capture Delusion

Carbon capture and sequestration reduces the output of power plants.

By Robert Bryce, National Review, Sep 23, 2013 [H/t NCPA]


Methane Out, Carbon Dioxide In

By Staff Writers, Charlottesville VA (SPX), Oct 01, 2013


California Dreaming

CA rooftop solar will cost other customers $1 billion per year

By Wayne Lusvardi, Cal Watchdog, Oct 1, 2013


[SEPP Comment: California wealth transfer scheme, from the poor and middle class to the wealthy.]

CPUC blacks out new green power prices from consumers

By Wayne Lusvardi, Cal Watchdog, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t Master Resource,


[SEPP Comment: Regulators who supposedly protect the consumers allow utilities to hide the true costs of wind and solar.]

Health, Energy, and Climate

The Florida Keys <3 Dengue!

By Staff Writers, ACSH, Oct 1, 2013


Environmental Industry

Russia Busts Greenpeace

By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 2, 2013


[SEPP Comment: For too long Greenpeace has had a free ride.]

Greenpeace’s Militant Pacifism…Protests Often Turn Violent, Pose A Danger…But Russia Stands Her Ground

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 4, 2013


Verbatim “Climate” Journalism

By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 3, 2013


[SEPP Comment: The earth changing to a cooling cycle is up for debate.]

Other Scientific News

Science’s Sokal moment

It seems dangerously easy to get scientific nonsense published

Editorial, The Economist, Oct 5, 2013 [H/t GWPF]


Taxpayer-Funded Journal Walks Back BPA Cancer Claim After Statistical Meltdown

By Trevor Butterworth, Forbes, Sep 26, 2013 [H/t ACSH]


Other News that May Be of Interest

Cassini finds ingredient of household plastic on Saturn moon

By Staff Writers, Pasadena, Calif. (UPI), Sep 30, 2013




Earth Warming too Fast for Turtles to Escape

By Staff Writer, Eco Enquirer, Sep 29, 2013 [H/t Roy Spencer]


Al Gore: US media ‘intimidated, frightened’ on climate change

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 27, 2013



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October 6, 2013 8:58 pm

David Rose and Michel Jarraud are equally off base in implying that the climate models make “predictions.” They make “projections.”

cui bono
October 6, 2013 9:36 pm

Re: number of the week, China’s nuclear power stations.
Cost is 2 to 3 times lower in China than US or Europe, and construction time is 52 months.

anna v
October 6, 2013 9:38 pm

From Meteo.gr :
The second lowest temperature ever recorded the first ten days of October in Athens, Greece ,was recorded Friday 4/10 with the highest temperature 16C.
The lowest ever recorded high for this time period was in 1898 when it was found at 13.1C

Usually we have to dress with “winter clothes” at the end of October beginning of November. Already winter clothes our out.

Mike McMillan
October 6, 2013 9:48 pm

“Obama Clings To Climate Change Science That Now Looks Very Wrong”
He should spend his efforts on something more useful, like settling the VHS/Betamax controversy.

October 7, 2013 12:40 am

Surely you mean “The term Zombie Science may be less than compl*i*mentary…” rather than “compl*e*mentary”?

October 7, 2013 12:47 am

You asked for details about the Chinese program for nuclear power, including costs and construction times.
They are predominantly developing the AP1000 design. Here are some figures –
“AP1000, CAP1000
The Westinghouse AP1000 is the main basis of China’s move to Generation III technology, and involves a major technology transfer agreement. It is a 1250 MWe gross reactor with two coolant loops. The first four AP1000 reactors are being built at Sanmen and Haiyang, for CNNC and China Power Investment Corp (CPI) respectively. Six more at three sites are firmly planned after them, at Sanmen, Haiyang and Lufeng (for CGN), and at least 30 more are proposed to follow. A State Council Research Office report in January 2011 emphasised that these should have priority over alternative designs such as CPR-1000, and this position strengthened following the Fukushima accident.
The reactors are built from modules fabricated adjacent to each site. The timeline is 50 months from first concrete to fuel loading, then six months to grid connection for the first four units, with this expected to reduce significantly for the following units. In October 2009, SNPTC and CNNC signed an agreement to co-develop and refine the AP1000 design, and this position strengthened following the Fukushima accident. (See also section below on Embarking upon Generation III plants).
CNEA estimated in May 2013 that the construction cost for two AP1000 units at Sanmen are CNY 40.1 billion ($6.54 billion), or 16,000 Yuan/kW installed ($2615/kW), instead of CNY 32.4 billion earlier estimated. This is about 20% higher than that of improved Generation II Chinese reactors, and 14% higher than latest estimate for CPR-1000, but likely to drop to about CNY 13,000/kW ($2120/kW) with series construction and localisation as envisaged. Grid purchase price is expected to exceed CNY 0.45/kWh at present costs, and drop to 0.42/kWh with reduced capital cost.
Source (with much more relevant data) World Nuclear Association –
Cheers Geoff.

October 7, 2013 3:17 am

TERRY OLDBERG denies “…that the climate models make ‘predictions.’ They make ‘projections.'”
Either way, they’ve failed.
(And do tell, Terry – failed predictions or failed projections – what’s the difference?)

Jeff Alberts
October 7, 2013 7:14 am

The final, final report is expected out in January 2014.

Is that like the idiotically redundant “last and final” boarding call you hear 20 times for one flight at the airport?

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