I wrote the day after IPCC AR5 SPM was released in Thoughts on IPCC AR5 SPM – discussion thread:
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On the plus side, contrary to ongoing claims from that alarmist media mill side there are no mentions of tornadoes and hurricanes in the extreme weather events section. They give low confidence to tropical storm activity being connected to climate change, and don’t mention mesoscale events like tornadoes and thunderstorms at all. Similarly, they give low confidence to drought and flood attribution.
They’ve only talked about heat waves and precipitation events and being connected. From Page 4 of the SPM:
This is consistent with what was reported last year in the IPCC SREX report ( IPCC Special Report on Extremes PDF)
From Chapter 4 of the SREX:
- “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
- “The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados”
- “The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses”
Let’s hope this lack of attribution of severe storms to “man made climate change” in AR5 finally nails the lid shut on the claims of Hurricane Sandy, tornado outbreaks, and other favorite “lets not let a good crisis go to waste” media bleatings about climate change.
Now with two IPCC reports making no connection, and with Nature’s editorial last year dashing alarmist hopes of linking extreme weather events to global warming saying:
Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
…we can finally call it a dead issue.
There’s simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and “climate change”.
===============================================================
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr adds in blog post today some points from the IPCC AR5 WGI Chapter 2 on extremes.
- “Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability”
- “There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century”
- “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”
- “In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”
- “In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”
- “In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950”
- “In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low”
And says:
Of course, I have no doubts that claims will still be made associating floods, drought, hurricanes and tornadoes with human-caused climate change — Zombie science — but I am declaring victory in this debate. Climate campaigners would do their movement a favor by getting themselves on the right side of the evidence.
Related articles
- IPCC Backpedals on Extreme Weather Claims (pjmedia.com)
- IPCC Report Blames Extreme Weather on Climate Change…But Should It? (theblaze.com)
- IPCC SPM: Bye to Extreme Weather (informthepundits.wordpress.com)
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OT – WUWT @ur momisugly 162,394,271 views now. Word is out. WUWT is only one source. IPCC report is the most current driver. The end is near! The truth is coming to a reality near you/all.
Sanity will rein in the future.
OK – A little cheer leading on my part. 😉
On a more serious note – The IPCC report has now staked its claims in writing. No backing out now. You just gotta love it!
Thank you, Gail! #(:)) That you whom I highly admire for her sharp mind found it humorous made me glad. Thanks for telling me. Laughter is always wonderful, but, it’s so much more fun when someone is laughing along with you.
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Hi, Jeff Alberts,
You will probably get really mad at me (once again) for telling you (not for doing it, how I spend my time is likely not of the slightest concern to you) this, but, I have been praying to God that all was well with you recently — you’ve been gone longer than usual. Hope all is well.
You are in my prayers nearly every day, as a matter of fact. That you so ardently take every opportunity that arises to slam people for their belief in God tells me that you very likely DO believe in God and are furious with Him about something tragic that happened. Otherwise, you would just shrug and shake your head and not bother. Here’s the thing, Mr. Alberts, do you know where you are going when you die? If you are trying to believe that you will simply cease to exist, it doesn’t appear to be working. Keep pursuing truth and peace in your heart about your eternal destiny. I say this because I actually care about you. And I believe that such a genuine search for truth will lead you to God and to Jeshua or I would not bother to say that to you.
Before you yell at me, please stop a moment and think: I am not writing to you because I do not care; I am writing because I love (agape) you.
And I would not be writing ANY of this if you had not written what you did. Just fair play. Pax?
Take care,
Janice
So how are we going to be doomed, now? We must be doomed somehow.
Pielke still things we need to do something about climate change though. He is testifying to that before congress. He also is warning them that weather extremes could become more frequent. I don’t understand how he reconciles that with the empirical data. So his stance is basically “No no no, just because she can swim doesn’t mean she’s a witch. But lets burn her just in case.”
@Katabasis, Theo and Janice –
Katabasis should also go to Fox News – I recommend contacting Neal Cavuto, who has previously hosted Marc Morano of ClimateDepot. Fox, at least, seems somewhat open to skeptics, though they could and should do more.
@ur momisugly Shenanigans — I agree. Pielke is either blinded by some emotional commitment to AGW or is afraid of losing his job. He is too bright a man to not be ABLE to recognize the truth.
@ur momisugly Chad — sounds good.
HOW ARE YOU????
We can dream.
@Janice Moore –
While I am a nonbeliever, I respect people who do believe in God – if one is to be honest with oneself, one must call ’em as he or she sees ’em, and that won’t be the same for everyone, and a reasonable person will accept that and be neither offended nor threatened by differences of belief. One of my biggest quarrels with the AGW crowd is their complete intolerance for other points of view. I ask of the alarmists that they respect my skepticism, and I am always willing to listen to any real evidence they might find to support their arguments (although it is convincingly evident that it is unlikely they will ever be able to do that, even in a small way). A big part of this whole controversy is their abandonment of the agreement to disagree, which is absolutely essential not only to human liberty and a civil society, but also to honest and effective science.
Conclusion of Katabasis’ excellent report:
Tumbleweed followed for several seconds. Then Matt said:
‘Not my responsibility’.”
(Katabasis here: http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/10/2/a-report-from-the-royal.html; emphasis mine)
Matt’s obviously a union man.
@Janice Moore –
Have been very busy with the second volume of my trilogy, which incidentally features some commentary on the AGW fallacy – on my fictional planet, crops and trees grow so much faster in an atmosphere with 10 times the CO2 of Earth’s, and there is no runaway warming.
A bit off topic, perhaps, but I think this is a way to help get out the truth about CO2 and global warming.
Dear Chad,
Thank you. Your respect and courtesy are much appreciated (and have been over the past several months).
But, still, I ask, how are you?
Janice
Ooops, we cross-posted, Chad,
I AM SO GLAD to hear that you have been happily busy — writing. Cool. How about a post on WUWT, sometime, of selections from your book — I, for one, would love to read it.
Thank you, so much, for responding. First, because I’ve been concerned. Second, because I’ve tried several times to make contact and was afraid I’d offended you to the point that forgiveness wasn’t even possible.
Take care.
Janice
Our gracious host:
[W]e can finally call it a dead issue.
I know you are ever the optimist, but the Weather Extreme meme is alive and well. As Jr. noted, the ramblings of “Zombie science” linking human-caused climate change to extreme weather will continue in earnest. Just last month remember we were treated to that paper from NOAA where they found the human “fingerprint” in half of the extreme weather events of 2012 that they studied. The president throws it out there routinely and the list of current advocates is very long.
So while there may be occasional lapses of illogic such as AR5 and the Nature piece, rest assured these guys are just getting started. As I noted in one of my blog posts about the subject, this latest report is just another stepping stone on their path to claiming a human fingerprint in almost all extreme weather events. Don’t forget who we are dealing with here.
I do agree that the meme is hurting and flailing, but when has that ever stopped them? Seriously. They are still in denial about the MWP and plenty of other coffin nails that expose the AGW theory as a failed ideology. There’s simply too much as stake and there is no way that they will go gentle into that good night. You may call it a dead issue, but some of these folks have been beating dead horses for years. Plus, they only linked half of the extreme weather events. My model suggests (high confidence) that this meme will someday allow for 100% linkage of extreme weather to human-caused climate change raising its profile to “unequivocal.”
You go Janice. Bravo!!!!!! As Chad I am an agnostic, but I value when believers pray, not for me but for anyone. Sometimes I even sneak in a little prayer, usually of thanksgiving.
Thank you, Stan! I guess, given Libby and all (smile), you can’t say, “Hi” much like you used to. I miss your kindly responses, though. SO, it was GREAT to hear from you this evening. Thank you, so much, for the affirmation. Did I tell you that you are one of my “regulars” on my prayer list, too? Yup (and Libby).
@Janice Moore –
I’d be happy to send you a copy of the first volume, titles After the Peace, if we can somehow make connections. I do not have a Facebook page or Twitter account – I avoid social media for a number of reasons, and WUWT has not granted my request to forward my email address to you – perhaps Anthony could be persuaded to relent on that.
The first volume doesn’t specifically address climate issues, but does touch on many other related political questions.
And no, I NEVER reject someone’s prayers for me. Prayers do help even for unbelievers, because they convey that someone cares – and that matters.
Dittos to the both of you!
shenanigans24 says: October 3, 2013 at 8:55 pm
Peilke Jr. drives me bonkers with that. He sits on all these panels testifies to the actual facts, literally rubbing the noses of the eco-nuts in the wallow but then smiles and says but, but maybe, perhaps, possibly likely, sometime in the future…..
If any alarmist of any stripe attempts to pass off a disaster as “being caused by evil humans” we just need to copy and paste the relevant parts of the Ipcc.
I don’t expect these creatures to go quietly into the night but from one portion of the Internet to the rest and to mass media and even to politicians I do expect us skeptics to hound them to the far ends of the earth calling them out on their stupidity until the shame is so great that they will not dare speak to another soul. It has already started with the shriller alarmists and the dumber media heads being shown to be morons from “boiling oceans” to 200 degrees of heat . Just like always the solution is in the hands of those who dare to speak up otherwise evil of all stripes will win.
I am not attempting to be grandiose or even claiming each one of us is powerful, but namely that as a group of intelligent humans we do have the power in ourselves to stop the nonsense and criminal waste ourselves without violence. We all have a responsibility to speak up often and give our two cents. So lets not despair or get down on the stupidity and perhaps doubt god over a bunch of lunatics who lack brains but rather take back our government, take back out media, and above all else take back science. All of this is possible through hard work, patience, and forcing shame onto anyone who lies, condoned lies, or even pays lip service to the preposterous notion that every disaster is the fault of man.
And here is where we must be tough. Until we shame everyone involved in the circle of incompetence and Tom-foolery, it will go on. So instead of getting depressed, spend your energy on writing a letter to your representative. If they don’t respond write two more. If they do respond, write two more. Be patient, polite but firm. Than start writing in the same format to the media. Repeat all and start writing letters to everyone in the university system.
Make yourself heard. The reason this nonsense is not dying is because a lot of us spend too much of our energy feeling hopeless and feeling like there is no way to fix it. Sure there is. We just aren’t finding the correct tools to use thus far. The only way we end this war is by giving up or being thrown in a concentration camp for our beliefs so let’s start forcing the issue by getting more political and force it. Most people who are skeptics realize how close we really are, so lets end it ASAP before this dying creature makes a bigger mess.
Folks, it’s not about the science or even a lack if knowledge. It never was, as Gail and anthony and many others have shown countless times so let’s not get boiled down into pointless arguments about what the real impacts of co2 are or even argue whether Luke Warmers are wrong or not, but rather lets all chase those creatures into the night with fire in our veins with our simple quest being to force an end to hype that is unwarranted and frankly wrong. Until we all call out shananigans whenever and wherever it is proper, liars will get away with their lies and as long as they can profit from it they will do so.
Ok I am finished and my fingers are sore from typing this on my iPhone. And yes this was much longer than I wanted it to be, but above all else we need to stop being depressed and start acting like responsible and intelligent adults who can problem solve and figure out how to kill this nonsense once and for all.
“Pielke Jr. Agrees – ‘Extreme weather to climate connection’ is a dead issue”
Since when is the Extreme Weather to Climate connection a claim serious enough to respond to.
Are we really going to make a polite conversation out of every moronic claim they come up with?
When are we going to say: Piss off you morons, we have had it with your endless stream of alarmist garbage!
I don’t say this because I am losing my temper. I’m just getting incredibly board.
For those of us who believe in God:http://revfelicity.org/2013/09/17/god-in-climate-change/
Ultimately I’m sure we have nothing to fear but there is going to be a lot of headbanging required to counter the “oh dear the planet is sick and must be healed” brigade.
Kevin O’Brien
Trust me on this: It is extremely unlikely that the final draft will have this graph.
We skeptics keep thinking that if the AGW believers see that the IPCC is crass shallow and transparent political work they will lose their faith in the IPCC.
They will not.
When the final draft domes out, either dropping this altogether, or changing it dishonestly, Revkin and the rest of the so-called science/enviro journalists covering this will not question it at all, and will still ignore the growing list of working and academic scientists who are skeptical.
The reasoning of ‘journalists’ goes like this:
AGW climate crisis consensus is real, therefor AGW is real.
Since it is real, no real scientist can legitimately question it.
Journalists should only interview real scientists.
And since the IPCC is written by real scientists,
The IPCC must not be questioned.
Went looking for extremes in maximum temperatures where I live in Melbourne Australia. The graph shows how many super hot days there have been each year, super hot meaning greater than 16 deg C above each yearly average. By this simple method of counting the days, the extremes in hot days appeared to be more common in the late 1800s.
This exercise is very easy to do for your own home city. I’d really like to see more like this from wherever you are, in case this one is atypical.
http://www.geoffstuff.com/Melbourne%2086017%20very%20hot%20days%20each%20year.jpg
Why, in ancient times catapulting dead bodies into the enemy’s fortress was standard practice. In media wars it still is.